HURRICANE IGOR

[dkmac]

From StormW's blogpost this morning:

Good morning!


Elsewhere, a tropical wave lies just to SSE of the Cape Verde Islands, and will be monitored for development over the next 96 hours.



The African wave train remains active, and any waves that exit into the Atlantic WILL have to be monitored, as the shear forecast map, for the 4th day in a row, indicates a series of upper level anticyclones to develop as waves enter the Atlantic.

Elsewhere, Tropical Storm formation is not expected through Tuesday.

[dkmac]

2AM

Atlantic Graphical TWO Area 3 closeup

Return to Atlantic Graphical TWO
3. A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED BETWEEN THECAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA IS ASSOCIATED WITHA TROPICAL WAVE. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTEDTO BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH DURING THENEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THISSYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[dkmac]

Rob Lightbown:

Tropical Weather Discussion

Issued: Tuesday, September 7, 2010 555 am EDT/455 am CDT
Would you like these tropical weather discussions, including unscheduled updates on any tropical storms or hurricanes that are out there, e-mailed to you? If so, just send an e-mail to:atherservices-subscribe@yahoogroups.com"]crownweatherservices-subscribe@yahoogroups.com[/EMAIL] and you will be added to our mailing list.
For A Plethora Of Tropical Weather Information Including Maps, Images and Graphics, Go To: [COLOR=#.com/?page_id=29[/COLOR].
[B]Possible Development Off Of West Coast Of Africa Over Next 7 to 10 Days:[/B

The next item to really monitor will be a tropical disturbance now tracking off of the coast of Africa and another tropical disturbance slated to track off of the coast of Africa later this week. Pretty much all of the global model guidance forecast this to become our next two tropical cyclones in the next 7 to 10 days with Igor potentially developing over the next 2 to 3 days in the far eastern Atlantic and possibly Julia to develop in the far eastern Atlantic early next week. The synoptic forecast over the next couple of weeks features a possible weakness in the ridge of high pressure near 60 West Longitude and this could cause both systems to curve northward before reaching the Lesser Antilles. With that said, it should be noted that the latest European model run forecasts Igor to be located just northeast of the northern Leeward Islands 10 days from now that looks to possibly miss this weakness. It needs to be added that the European model hasn’t done too well lately as it has been recently too strong with the forecast of eastern US high pressure ridges.
I will be monitoring things off of the coast of Africa closely this week and will keep you all updated.

[dkmac]

[ROLLTIDE]

8AM

tlantic Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook

This product is updated at approximately 2 AM, 8 AM, 2 PM, and 8 PM EDT from June 1 to November 30. Special outlooks may be issued as conditions warrant.
Place your mouse cursor over areas of interest for more information Archived Outlooks

GIS data: .shp ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT TUE SEP 7 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM HERMINE...LOCATED INLAND ABOUT 50 MILES WEST OF CORPUS CHRISTI
TEXAS.

1. CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND THE NORTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF GASTON. THIS
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE AGAIN DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

2. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 350 MILES WEST OF THE
NORTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS
AND SHOWERS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE
LOW MOVES WESTWARD NEAR 10 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

3. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED BETWEEN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND
THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE.
DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO
OCCUR AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/PASCH
NNNN

[dkmac]

2PM - Now 20%

Atlantic Graphical TWO Area 3 closeup
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Return to Atlantic Graphical TWO
3. A TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS PRODUCING A
LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO
OCCUR AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[Alex]

Looks like it is now 91L:

[ROLLTIDE]

[wxinmotion]

Special TWOAT issued. Gotta love Stacy Stewart.

TWOAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1050 PM EDT TUE SEP 7 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS ISSUED THE LAST ADVISORY ON
TROPICAL DEPRESSION HERMINE...LOCATED INLAND OVER CENTRAL TEXAS
ABOUT 30 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF BROWNWOOD.

A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE...ACCOMPANIED BY A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...
IS LOCATED NEAR THE SOUTHEASTERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED NEAR THE CENTER OF THE
LOW DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR
CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN DISORGANIZED IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THE REMNANTS OF GASTON LOCATED ABOUT 60 MILES SOUTH OF PONCE PUERTO
RICO. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW
TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
AGAIN DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED
ABOUT 450 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE NORTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS REMAINS MINIMAL. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS
THE LOW MOVES WESTWARD NEAR 10 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[ROLLTIDE]

[HoumaLA_WXguy]

Another fish?

[dkmac]

2AM - now 50%

Atlantic Graphical TWO Area 1 closeup

Return to Atlantic Graphical TWO
1. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS BECOMING MORE ORGANIZED NEAR ANAREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPEVERDE ISLANDS. STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS OVER THIS SYSTEM AREEXPECTED TO DECREASE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND ADDITIONALDEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE AS THE LOW MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING ATROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[dkmac]

Rob Lightbown:

Tropical Weather Discussion

Issued: Wednesday, September 8, 2010 535 am EDT/435 am CDT
Would you like these tropical weather discussions, including unscheduled updates on any tropical storms or hurricanes that are out there, e-mailed to you? If so, just send an e-mail to: [EMAIces-subscribe@yahoogroups.com"]crs.com[/EMAIL] and you will be added to our mailing list.
For A Plethora Of Tropical Weather Information Including Maps, Images and Graphics, Go To: .
Ex-Tropical Depression Gaston:

There really isn’t much to talk about with the remnants of Gaston, which is located about 150 miles south of Hispaniola this morning. Development is no longer expected from this system and this will be the last discussion issued on Gaston unless regeneration occurs, which is not expected.
Tropical Disturbance In Eastern Atlantic Likely To Develop (Invest 91-L):

An organizing area of disturbed weather has been labeled Invest 91-L by the National Hurricane Center. This system is located very close to the southernmost Cape Verde Islands this morning and I think its fairly likely that this system will be our next named storm (Igor) by this weekend. Right now, environmental conditions are unfavorable for development, however, conditions are expected to become favorable by about Friday or Saturday and remain favorable right into next week.
The global model guidance unanimously forecast this system to become a very large and powerful hurricane by next week as it tracks westward between the Lesser Antilles and the coast of Africa. It should be noted that this system is still at least 7 to 8 days from threatening any land areas and we have plenty of time to keep an eye on it. The latest European model run forecasts this system to be a potential threat to the northernmost Leeward Islands by late next week. It is way too premature to tell whether this system will threaten or impact the Lesser Antilles or further down the road the US coastline. It is highly possible that Igor to be will curve out into the open Atlantic, but that depends on how strong a trough of low pressure will be tracking off of the US East Coast early next week. The European model is the weakest with this trough while the GFS model is the strongest.
So, there is plenty of time to monitor this system and I will keep you all updated on the latest.
Northwest Caribbean Development Next Week??:

Two of the global models, the European and NOGAPS models, forecast that the combination of a tropical wave now approaching the Windward Islands and moisture and instability advecting northward from South America will lead to the formation of a tropical cyclone in the western Caribbean around Wednesday of next week and the European model, in particular forecasts it to cross the Yucatan Peninsula late next week and be located just off of the northwest coast of the Yucatan Peninsula around next Saturday. None of the other global models show this type of scenario.
To be honest, I am pretty skeptical regarding the model forecasts from especially the NOGAPS and to a certain extent the European model. I would like to see at least another couple of days worth of model consistency and also to see if other model guidance jumps on board regarding this potential. With that said, this scenario will be monitored very closely and interests in the western Caribbean should also monitor things closely for the next several days, in case this comes to fruition.

[Her-icane]

[ROLLTIDE]

[ROLLTIDE]

[ROLLTIDE]

70%

HOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS CONTINUING TO ORGANIZE NEAR A
WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF THE
SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS OVER
THIS SYSTEM ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...AND THIS LOW HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...70
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

[ROLLTIDE]

[OPHarbor]

The 11:00 update has advanced 91L to TS Igor. WOW that's quick!

Location: 13.7°N 23.5°W
Max sustained: 40 mph
Moving: W at 8 mph
Min pressure: 1005 mb

[Texasbob]

Wow. Invest to TS. Hello Igor