HURRICANE IGOR

[StormRider]

Wake me up in 10 days when this things gets close to a land mass.

[ROLLTIDE]

5pm

000
WTNT41 KNHC 082038
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM IGOR DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112010
500 PM AST WED SEP 08 2010

MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BE LOCATED TO THE WEST OF
THE CENTER...A SYMPTOM OF EASTERLY SHEAR. HIGH-RESOLUTION ASCAT
DATA EARLIER INDICATED PEAK WINDS OF 35-40 KT...AND WITH SATELLITE
CLASSIFICATIONS INCREASING...THE WIND SPEED IS RAISED TO 40 KT.

AN UNCERTAIN ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 275/5. THE
MOTION HAS SLOWED SIGNIFICANTLY...POSSIBLY DUE TO THE LOW PRESSURE
AREA APPROACHING THE NORTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THE GLOBAL
MODELS ARE SHOWING A DIFFERENT SCENARIO IN THE SHORT-TERM AND HAVE
TRENDED TOWARD THE 00/12Z ECMWF SOLUTIONS. AS THE SMALL LOW TO
THE NORTHEAST OF IGOR MOVES WESTWARD...THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO
WEAKEN SLIGHTLY...WHICH ALLOWS IGOR TO MOVE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST
OR EVEN NORTHWEST BRIEFLY. AFTERWARDS...THE RIDGE RESTRENGTHENS...
WHICH SHOULD TURN IGOR WESTWARD AGAIN. THE NHC FORECAST IS
SHIFTED TO THE NORTH TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INTERACTION OF THE TWO
SYSTEMS AND THE NORTHWARD SHIFT IN THE MODELS...BUT STILL LIES
ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE ENVELOPE.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST...AT LEAST IN THE SHORT-TERM...SEEMS TRICKY
WITH IGOR ONLY ABOUT 210 NM SOUTHWEST OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW.
THERE CERTAINLY IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SORT OF INTERACTION THAT
COULD SLOW THE STRENGTHENING PROCESS. THUS THE INTENSITY FORECAST
WILL ONLY SHOW SLOW INTENSIFICATION IN THE SHORT-TERM...GENERALLY A
LITTLE LOWER THAN THE MODELS. IN THE LONGER-RANGE...THERE IS
PLENTY OF WARM WATER AND LIGHT SHEAR FORECAST IN THE PATH OF
IGOR...WHICH WOULD PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LARGE AND POWERFUL
HURRICANE. THE NHC FORECAST IS INCREASED FROM THE PREVIOUS
ONE...CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS...AND STILL MIGHT BE CONSERVATIVE AT
THE END. HOWEVER...WITH THE TRACK FORECAST SHIFTING NORTHWARD... I
AM HESITANT TO FORECAST A MUCH STRONGER HURRICANE AT THIS TIME.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 08/2100Z 13.9N 23.9W 40 KT
12HR VT 09/0600Z 14.0N 24.8W 45 KT
24HR VT 09/1800Z 14.7N 26.5W 50 KT
36HR VT 10/0600Z 15.5N 29.1W 55 KT
48HR VT 10/1800Z 16.3N 32.2W 60 KT
72HR VT 11/1800Z 17.0N 37.5W 70 KT
96HR VT 12/1800Z 17.5N 42.5W 80 KT
120HR VT 13/1800Z 18.5N 47.5W 90 KT

$$

[Smitter]

Mean Green IGOR machine. NHC is already using the words POWERFUL. They must expect a beast

[ROLLTIDE]

[JHat]

Looks like the jury is still out on this one, FISH or NO FISH.

[JHat]

I see Igor is south of the Islands, but what is that NE of the islands, another system? or a ULL. Sure looks like a Low level circulation.

[richardginn]

I like the NHC path for now.

[ROLLTIDE]

[ROLLTIDE]

[NOLAFROGSTOMP]

I see Igor is south of the Islands, but what is that NE of the islands, another system? or a ULL. Sure looks like a Low level circulation.

its another circulation

[Her-icane]

[Her-icane]

Tropical Storm Igor Crawls through the Eastern Atlantic

UPDATED 8 PM EDT, September 8, 2010

By WeatherBug Meteorologist, Patrick O'Hara



After a slow start, the 2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season has seen a nice bump in activity the last couple of weeks. The newest storm, Tropical Storm Igor is creeping westward through the far eastern Atlantic past the Cape Verde Islands.

The traditional peak of the Atlantic Hurricane Season is Friday, and Igor will likely be the season`s third hurricane by that time as it moves over the central Atlantic. It won`t be until the middle of next week before Igor will be a threat to the Caribbean islands or the eastern U.S. Even so, a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect across the southern Cape Verde Islands as Igor shoots by tonight.

WeatherBug Meteorologist Rachel Peterson has the latest on Tropical Storm Igor in this exclusive WeatherBug Tropical Outlook Video. As of 8 p.m. EDT, Tropical Storm Igor was located near 13.9 N, 24.2 W or 70 miles south-southeast of the southernmost Cape Verde Island. This places it about 3,700 miles east-southeast of Miami. Maximum sustained winds remains at 45 mph. Igor is moving west at 6 mph. Its central pressure is 29.68 inches or 1005 mb.

Current forecasts have Igor moving to the west across the open eastern and central Atlantic Ocean water for the next five to seven days. It will be rolling over very warm water, so a gradual strengthening is expected and it will grow into a hurricane by the weekend.

[NOLAFROGSTOMP]

they ment fourth hurricane of the season

[Her-icane]

Accuweather

Igor Forms in the Atlantic
By Alex Sosnowski, Expert Senior Meteorologist

Sep 8, 2010; 8:03 PM ET





Igor will drift in a general west to west-northwest direction, while strengthening into the weekend.

The ninth tropical storm of the 2010 Atlantic season, Igor, formed Wednesday just south of the Cape Verde Islands. While Igor is many days away from any influence on the Antilles, it will strengthen. As of 8 p.m. Wednesday, Igor was producing sustained winds of 45 mph.

People on the Cape Verde Islands can expect tropical storm conditions into early Thursday with locally gusty winds, building seas and drenching downpours.
Igor is forecast by AccuWeather.com meteorologists to become the next hurricane, as the train of systems from Africa remains active.

Igor could continue to plow westward toward the Antilles into next week, or could be picked up and turned northward by a trough of low pressure expected to drop in off the East Coast of the U.S.

[Her-icane]

they ment fourth hurricane of the season

But then, who's counting?

[Her-icane]

[Her-icane]

[Her-icane]

[Her-icane]

[Her-icane]