HURRICANE IGOR

[Windwatcher]

Wake me up in 10 days when this things gets close to a land mass.

Did Hermine over your head wake you up today?

[ROLLTIDE]

11pm

000 WTNT41 KNHC 090257 TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM IGOR DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112010 1100 PM AST WED SEP 08 2010 IGOR REMAINS A SHEARED TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE MAIN CONVECTIVE CLOUD MASS IS DISPLACED WEST OF THE PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CENTER... AND THERE IS A SHARP EASTERN EDGE TO THE CENTRAL CONVECTION. IN ADDITION...THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME SOMEWHAT LESS ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...WITH CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES RECENTLY WARMING. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE AT 2.5 FROM TAFB...AND THE 3-HOURLY AVERAGED ADT VALUE IS CLOSE TO 3.0. THE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE REPRESENTS A BLEND OF CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES AND IS UNCHANGED AT 40 KT. THE COMBINATION OF MODERATE TO STRONG EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND THE ONGOING INTERACTION OF IGOR WITH ANOTHER LOW LOCATED 150 N MI TO ITS NORTH IS EXPECTED TO IMPEDE THE INTENSIFICATION OF THE CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. BEYOND THAT TIME...THE CONSOLIDATION OF IGOR WITH THIS FEATURE...AS WELL AS A REDUCTION IN THE EASTERLY SHEAR...SHOULD RESULT IN A STEADY STRENGTHENING. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS CLOSE TO THE LGEM/SHIPS STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL INTENSITY GUIDANCE. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/06. THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY REMAINS UNCHANGED. IN THE SHORT-TERM...GLOBAL MODELS SHOW IGOR INTERACTING WITH AND ABSORBING THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A SLIGHTLY WEAKER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS NORTH AND TEMPORARILY IMPART A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION. FROM 24-96 HOURS...A RE-STRENGTHENING OF THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO CAUSE IGOR TO TURN MORE WESTWARD. AFTER 96 HOURS...IGOR IS EXPECTED TO ENCOUNTER A DEVELOPING WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...SIMILAR TO BUT NOT AS FAR NORTH AS THE GFDL/HWRF SOLUTIONS. THE NHC OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE IN THE SHORT-TERM...BUT HAS BEEN ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD IN LINE WITH THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AT LATER FORECAST PERIODS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 09/0300Z 13.8N 24.6W 40 KT 12HR VT 09/1200Z 14.3N 25.7W 45 KT 24HR VT 10/0000Z 15.1N 27.9W 50 KT 36HR VT 10/1200Z 15.8N 30.7W 55 KT 48HR VT 11/0000Z 16.4N 33.6W 60 KT 72HR VT 12/0000Z 17.0N 39.0W 75 KT 96HR VT 13/0000Z 18.0N 43.5W 85 KT 120HR VT 14/0000Z 19.5N 47.5W 90 KT $$

[JHat]

another fish

[ROLLTIDE]

Would you please stop saying fish . We get the point Jhat ! That's one of many models

[ROLLTIDE]

[ROLLTIDE]

5AM

000 WTNT41 KNHC 090837 TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM IGOR DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112010 500 AM AST THU SEP 09 2010 THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS DETERIORATED DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS AND CONTINUES TO BE HIGHLY SHEARED. NEITHER SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES NOR ASCAT MEASUREMENTS SUPPORT TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN ADJUSTED DOWN TO 35 KNOTS AND THIS ESTIMATE IS GENEROUS. IGOR COULD WEAKEN A LITTLE MORE TODAY BUT GIVEN THAT THE CYCLONE STILL HAS A LARGE CIRCULATION AND IS MOVING TOWARD A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT OF LOWER SHEAR AND WARMER OCEAN...A GRADUAL STRENGTHENING COULD BEGIN IN 24 HOUR OR SO. IGOR IS STILL FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN ABOUT 3 DAYS. FIRST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CENTER IS STILL LOCATED SOUTH OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS SUGGESTING THAT IGOR HAS BEEN MEANDERING DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...THE LARGE CIRCULATION SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST LATER TODAY. THE STEERING PATTERN OVER THE ATLANTIC HAS BEEN QUITE PERSISTENT AND CONSISTS OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE BASIN AND A BROAD TROUGH OSCILLATING BETWEEN THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE BASIN. THIS STEERING PATTERN WHICH IS FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS TO CONTINUE...WOULD FAVOR A GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AND THEN A TURN MORE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. TRACK GUIDANCE DEPICTS THIS SCENARIO WHICH IS REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 09/0900Z 13.8N 24.3W 35 KT 12HR VT 09/1800Z 14.0N 25.3W 30 KT 24HR VT 10/0600Z 15.0N 28.0W 40 KT 36HR VT 10/1800Z 16.0N 31.0W 45 KT 48HR VT 11/0600Z 16.5N 34.0W 55 KT 72HR VT 12/0600Z 17.0N 40.0W 65 KT 96HR VT 13/0600Z 18.0N 44.5W 75 KT 120HR VT 14/0600Z 19.5N 49.0W 85 KT $$ FORECASTER AVILA

[ROLLTIDE]

09/0600 UTC 13.6N 24.9W T1.5/1.5 IGOR

[dkmac]

Rob Lightbown:

Tropical Weather Discussion

Issued: Thursday, September 9, 2010 605 am EDT/505 am CDT
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For A Plethora Of Tropical Weather Information Including Maps, Images and Graphics, Go To: .
Tropical Storm Igor:

For Information About Tropical Storm Igor with Maps, Images and Graphics, Go To: .
Tropical Storm Igor is highly sheared this morning and satellite estimates indicate that this is barely a tropical storm. In fact, Igor could weaken a little bit today and become a tropical depression for a while before strengthening again starting tomorrow. All indications are that this storm will track into an environment that is much more favorable starting tomorrow and continuing through at least early next week. It should be noted that the latest SHIPS model forecasts that shear will relax from 15 to 25 knots currently to 10 knots or less in just 24 hours from now. Eventually, Igor is expected to become a hurricane over this weekend and may become a major hurricane as we head into the middle part of next week.
Igor is forecast to track west-northwestward underneath a ridge of high pressure right through this weekend. As we head through next week, both the global model guidance and the ensemble guidance suggest that a large weakness in the ridg of high pressure may pick up Igor around 60 West Longitude and try and steer the hurricane northward into the open Atlantic. With that said, that idea is still 7 to 10 days away and a lot could change in the next week or so. There is plenty of time to keep an eye on Igor and I will keep you all updated on the latest.

[dkmac]

8AM

TROPICAL STORM IGOR INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112010
800 AM AST THU SEP 09 2010

...IGOR A WEAK TROPICAL STORM...DRIFTING NORTHWARD...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.1N 24.2W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...INCLUDING MAIO...SAO TIAGO...
FOGO...AND BRAVA

THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER TODAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IGOR WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 24.2 WEST. IGOR IS
DRIFTING NORTHWARD AT ABOUT 2 MPH...4 KM/HR. IGOR IS EXPECTED TO
TURN WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TODAY BUT SOME
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST TO BEGIN ON FRIDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM...
MAINLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WINDS... TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS TODAY. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO END LATER
TODAY.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.

[ROLLTIDE]

[ROLLTIDE]

11AM

000 WTNT41 KNHC 091431 TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM IGOR DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112010 1100 AM AST THU SEP 09 2010 DEEP CONVECTION FORMED NEAR THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF IGOR AROUND 1030 UTC...AND HAS EXPANDED SINCE THAT TIME. HOWEVER...THIS CONVECTION REMAINS WEST OF THE CENTER DUE TO ABOUT 20 KT OF EASTERLY SHEAR ...AS SHOWN BY UW-CIMSS ANALYSES. ALTHOUGH AN ASCAT PASS AROUND 0000 UTC ONLY SHOWED MAXIMUM WINDS OF 25-30 KT...THE WINDS ARE ASSUMED TO BE A LITTLE STRONGER NOW DUE TO THE INCREASE IN CONVECTION. THEREFORE...IGOR WILL REMAIN A TROPICAL STORM WITH AN INITIAL WIND SPEED ESTIMATE OF 35 KT. THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS THE EASTERLY SHEAR DECREASING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS...COMBINED WITH WARM WATERS AND A RELATIVELY MOIST ATMOSPHERE SHOULD ALLOW FOR STEADY INTENSIFICATION. THE STATISTICAL AND DYNAMICAL INTENSITY MODELS BRING IGOR TO HURRICANE STRENGTH IN ABOUT 3 DAYS AND SHOW ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING THEREAFTER. THE NHC OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS IN CLOSEST AGREEMENT WITH THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE. IGOR HAS BEEN GENERALLY MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS...AND THE 6-HOUR INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 330/5. HOWEVER...THE LAST FEW FEW VISIBLE IMAGES SUGGEST A SLIGHTLY FASTER NORTHWESTWARD MOTION. NOW THAT IGOR APPEARS TO HAVE ABSORBED THE WEAK LOW THAT HAD BEEN IN ITS VICINITY...A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF IGOR SHOULD STEER THE CYCLONE WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW IGOR NEARING A CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROUGH WHICH SHOULD CAUSE A NORTHWESTWARD TURN. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED TO THE NORTH IN THE SHORT-TERM DUE TO THE INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION...AND IS A LITTLE SLOWER AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS SUGGESTED BY THE GUIDANCE SUITE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 09/1500Z 14.7N 24.8W 35 KT 12HR VT 10/0000Z 15.0N 26.3W 35 KT 24HR VT 10/1200Z 15.8N 29.0W 40 KT 36HR VT 11/0000Z 16.4N 32.0W 50 KT 48HR VT 11/1200Z 16.7N 35.0W 60 KT 72HR VT 12/1200Z 17.3N 40.4W 70 KT 96HR VT 13/1200Z 18.5N 44.5W 80 KT 120HR VT 14/1200Z 20.0N 48.5W 85 KT $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BRENNAN

[ROLLTIDE]

[ROLLTIDE]

[ROLLTIDE]

2pm

2:00 PM AST Thu Sep 9
Location: 15.5°N 25.4°W
Max sustained: 40 mph
Moving: NW at 10 mph
Min pressure: 1006 mb

[ROLLTIDE]

JB

THURSDAY

If it's not Igor, it will be the next one behind it.

A tandem, probably a trio, of tropical cyclones will have originated in the African wave train over the next 10-15 days and two, perhaps three, will come out of a more westward and southward source region discussed in yesterday's post. One of each is evident now, the African origin with Igor, the storm to be named probably before the weekend is through in the Caribbean, now organizing east of the southern Windwards.

The overall pattern in 10-20 days is almost textbook for U.S. hits. The question is how does this come about. If Igor misses the connection with the trough near 60 west in 7-10 days, it will be the first threat for the East coast... but as I will show on the Long Ranger, in the longer term, the pattern says come to the U.S. in the means with the classic positive over southeastern Canada and negatives through the Gulf and into the southwest Atlantic. The last time that occurred we had Earl miss 50-100 miles east and a fast-rallying Hermine hit. The ante is upped here given the overall pattern being more favored for the Caribbean lighting up faster out of the second source. What could happen is the Caribbean system misses south, Igor misses east and then the following two close the gap in between. The reason the following two should not simply do the same as the front two is because the pattern evolves differently. Let's remember Earl got all the way back to 75.2; the original target recurve was quite a bit farther east with Fiona farther west. What usually happens here is it may take a while to get a handle on which one will do it, but one of them usually does. In the pattern backing up, and you saw this with Dennis and Floyd, Edouard and Fran, the second may be the one to come farther west. This time though, we are dealing with a much more pregnant situation since the Caribbean is starting to open for business. The Hatch-it Job folks are on this as they have changed from mellow yellow to orange you getting more concerned?

Igor is looking better as the other low to the northeast is pulling it up toward it and it is coming down toward Igor. Soon, it will combine and turn due west and start to intensify.. A Fujiwara effect in the eastern Atlantic... though I guess by where it is, it would be a Fujiverde.

In front of Igor are two swirls, one up near 22 north and 40 west and the other near 16 north and 42 west, while another strong wave is over Africa ready to follow Igor once he starts west.

Thanks for reading. Ciao for now.

[ROLLTIDE]

[ROLLTIDE]

[ROLLTIDE]

[StormRider]

Did Hermine over your head wake you up today?

Ha! Nope, but one of the 'naders touched down about a mile from my office 30 minutes after I left work. I could have witnessed my first twister up close.

[Windwatcher]

I'm thinking Igor's going to be huge. No science behind my thinking. Just a feeling. I'm thinking East Coast, Florida.