TD Karl

[richardginn]

if it did not form soon it may have never formed.

[Galvestongirl]

What direction is the model taking it? WNW? (the one in 2 weeks)

[ROLLTIDE]

[Her-icane]

[Her-icane]

[Her-icane]

Karl Forms in Caribbean, Will Soon Hit Yucatan

By Heather Buchman, Meteorologist

Sep 14, 2010; 4:55 PM ET



This satellite image from late Tuesday afternoon shows Tropical Storm Karl spinning over the northwestern Caribbean.

An area of low pressure in the Caribbean developed into Tropical Storm Karl Tuesday afternoon, joining Igor and Julia in the Atlantic basin.

Karl is expected to make landfall over the Yucatan Peninsula late tonight or early Wednesday morning and eventually become a hurricane after emerging over the Gulf of Mexico later this week.

The AccuWeather.com Hurricane Center has details on the storm's current position, strength and movement.

Flooding rain will be the biggest threat with Karl through midweek. Heavy showers and thunderstorms will spread into the Yucatan Peninsula and portions of Belize tonight into Wednesday, affecting popular tourist destinations such as Cancun and Playa del Carmen, Mexico.



Landfall is expected late tonight or early Wednesday morning near or just north of Chetumal, the state capital of Quintana Roo, Mexico. Rainfall totals near the center of the storm are expected to range between 4 and 6 inches with locally higher amounts.
While heavy rain and localized flooding will be the most widespread impacts, tropical storm-force winds between 50 and 60 mph are also likely to lash the coastline Wednesday.

After crossing the Yucatan Peninsula, the storm will emerge over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico, or the Bay of Campeche, Thursday morning. From there, the system is expected to restrengthen with a good chance of becoming a hurricane before landfall over the Mexican coast Saturday.

Most computer models show Karl making landfall between Tampico and Vera Cruz, Mexico. This would keep it well south of Brownsville, Texas, and the areas of northeastern Mexico that were hardest-hit by Hermine, Alex and Tropical Depression 2 earlier this season.

While this is the more likely scenario, a landfall farther north cannot be completely ruled out.

Even if Karl does stay well south of Texas and far northeastern Mexico, the system will still likely affect the region with heavy showers and thunderstorms this weekend. This would make Karl the fourth tropical system this season to have some impact on the region.

[Her-icane]

Tropical Storm Karl Continues to Strengthen


UPDATED 8 PM EDT, September 14, 2010

By WeatherBug Meteorologist, Patrick O'Hara



Enlarge





Right on cue as the Atlantic hurricane season reached its peak, the tropics continue to bubble. The season`s eleventh tropical storm has formed in the Caribbean Sea. Meanwhile, the open Atlantic is home to Hurricanes Igor and Julia.



An area of showers and thunderstorms located in the Caribbean Sea just east of the Yucatan Peninsula has become better organized. After investigation by a Hurricane Hunter aircraft, the National Hurricane Center has determined it to be Tropical Storm Karl.



A Tropical Storm Warning is in place for the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula from Chetumal, Mexico to Cabo Catoche, Mexico. Meanwhile, a Tropical Storm Watch has been issued from Belize City, Belize to the Mexico/Belize border.



As of 8 p.m. EDT, Tropical Storm Karl was located near 18.4N, 84.8W, or about 230 miles east of Chetumal, Mexico. Maximum sustained winds have increased to 45 mph, and its central pressure is 29.50 inches or 999 mb. This is a sign that the storm is strengthening. The storm is moving to the west-northwest at 15 mph.


Current forecasts have the tropical storm making landfall on the Yucatan Peninsula on Wednesday. A general west-northwest trend is expected for the next several days, before a curve toward the west in the Gulf of Mexico by Friday.

[Her-icane]

Two hurricanes and T.S. Karl in the Atlantic
M. Ressler, Lead Meteorologist, The Weather Channel
Sep. 14, 2010 5:25 pm ET

TROPICAL STORM KARL
At 5 PM EDT, Tropical Storm Karl formed in the northwest Caribbean, 270 miles east of Chetumal, Mexico with winds of 40 mph. Karl is moving to the west-northwest at 15 mph.

Because of Karl's close proximity to Mexico and Belize, a tropical storm warning has been immediately issued for the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula from Chetumal to Cabo Catoche and a tropical storm watch is in effect for coastal Belize from Belize City to northward to the Mexico border.

Karl's area of tropical-storm-force winds is very small. That said, some strengthening is possible before landfall over the Yucatan midday Wednesday.
Heavy rainfall between 3 and 5 inches with localized totals to 8 inches will cause flash flooding.

Karl will weaken to a tropical depression over the Yucatan and then emerge into the southern Gulf of Mexico very early Thursday.

Karl will most likely head westward and make a second landfall in Mexico Friday evening. It's not out of the question that Karl could near minimal hurricane strength before this second landfall. Karl will rain itself out over Mexico this coming weekend and its very outermost fringes could bring a little rain to southernmost Texas.

[Her-icane]

[Her-icane]

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/~acevans/mode...10_analogs.png



If you can't see the picture, try right click and "show picture"....

[Her-icane]

[Woodstorm]

Karl looks to have a chip on his shoulder. That thing looks mean.

[ROLLTIDE]

I am expecting RI once it reaches the other side cause conditions are almost perfect

[Woodstorm]

How bad is the Yucatan going to beat it up?

[ROLLTIDE]

[ROLLTIDE]

[ROLLTIDE]

[ROLLTIDE]

COLOR="DarkRed"]Graphics[/COLOR]


animated
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html
IR

Animated
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-avn.html
IR SHORTWAVE

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-ir2.html
RGB

Animated
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-rgb.html
Funktop

Animated
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-ft.html
IR DEV
Rainbow



UNENHANCED

Animated
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-ir4.html
JSL2

Animated
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-jsl.html
Water

Animated
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-wv.html

[pullenr]

Maybe a 50 knot storm now?

[ROLLTIDE]

11pm

000 WTNT33 KNHC 150243 TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM KARL ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132010 1000 PM CDT TUE SEP 14 2010 ...KARL EXPECTED TO REACH THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.6N 85.5W ABOUT 185 MI...295 KM E OF CHETUMAL MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/HR PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/HR MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES