TD Karl

[dkmac]

COLOR="DarkRed"]Graphics[/COLOR]


animated
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html
IR

Animated
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-avn.html
IR SHORTWAVE

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-ir2.html
RGB

Animated
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-rgb.html
Funktop

Animated
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-ft.html
IR DEV
Rainbow



UNENHANCED

Animated
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-ir4.html
JSL2

Animated
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-jsl.html
Water

Animated
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-wv.html

[ROLLTIDE]

2AM

Atlantic Graphical TWO Area 2 closeup

Return to Atlantic Graphical TWO 2. AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT AS THE LOW MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[dkmac]

Rob Lightbown:

Tropical Weather Discussion

Issued: Thursday, September 9, 2010 605 am EDT/505 am CDT
Would you like these tropical wearservices-subscribe@yahoogroups.c...com</font></b>[/EMAIL] and you will be added to our mailing list.
For A Plethora Of Tropical Weather Information Including Maps, Images and Graphics, Go To: [URLnweather.com/?page_id=29[/COLOR][/URL].
Possible Development In The Caribbean Late This Weekend Or Early Next Week:

We may have tropical cyclone development in the Caribbean within the next few days. An area of disturbed weather was located near the Windward Islands this morning and all of the global model guidance is now onboard in developing this system into a tropical cyclone either this weekend or early next week. Environmental conditions are favorable for development and it appears that there is a broad cyclonic circulation occurring with this system near the southern Windward Islands.
As I have already mentioned, all of the global model guidance forecast development from this system, however, they vary on how quickly this system will spin up and exactly where it will track.
The latest NAM model is the quickest at developing this system and forecasts it to be a tropical storm in as little as 48 hours from now and forecasts a pretty rapid rampup this weekend as it tracks northwestward towards Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands on Sunday as a hurricane.
The GFS model is the slowest in developing this system and doesn’t really develop it until the middle part of next week when its in the western Caribbean. Ultimately, the GFS model forecasts a landfall near Galveston about 2 weeks from today.
The Canadian model forecasts a west-northwest track and holds off on any real development until the middle part of next week when it forecasts it to be located in the southeast Bahamas. Ultimately, the Canadian model sends this system into the southeast Gulf of Mexico in about 10 days from now.
The NOGAPS model is further north than the GFS model and forecasts this system to be located near the north coast of Cuba around the middle part of next week.
Finally, the European model tracks this system westward holding off on any real development until it reaches the western Caribbean on Tuesday. It ends up keeping this system on a westward course and forecasts a more progressive system and forecasts that high pressure to the north will drive this system right into Mexico in about 10 days from now.
I definitely think the NAM model may be way too quick in developing this system and am leaning strongly towards an average between the GFS and European model for slow development as it tracks west-northwestward over the next few days. I do think that this system will likely become at least a tropical storm as early as Monday or Tuesday when it’s in the western Caribbean. I also am forecasting right now that this system will cross the Yucatan Peninsula around next Thursday and potentially get into the northern Bay of Campeche or southern Gulf of Mexico late next week into next weekend.
I will be monitoring this system very closely and all interests in the central and western Caribbean, including Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula should closely monitor this system over the next few days.

[ROLLTIDE]

This will be our next invest later this morning

[ROLLTIDE]

40%

Atlantic Graphical TWO Area 1 closeup

Return to Atlantic Graphical TWO 1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED NEAR THE WINDWARD ISLANDS ARE SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT AS THE LOW MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[dkmac]

8AM now 40%

[ROLLTIDE]

[ROLLTIDE]

[ROLLTIDE]

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al922010.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201009091153
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 92, 2010, DB, O, 2010090912, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL922010
AL, 92, 2010090912, , BEST, 0, 119N, 608W, 20, 0, DB

[ROLLTIDE]

AL, 92, 2010090912, BEST, 122N, 602W, 20, 1009, DB

[ROLLTIDE]

Model runs should be out in the next hour and should point at another Mexican storm

[ROLLTIDE]

[ROLLTIDE]

Hard to get excited about 92L as it should be another Mexican storm and should take an Alex like track into Mexico after striking the yucatan

[ROLLTIDE]

[ROLLTIDE]

[nightrider]

Hard to get excited about 92L as it should be another Mexican storm and should take an Alex like track into Mexico

It will disrupt oil operations AGAIN and trips to Mexico.

[ROLLTIDE]

[ROLLTIDE]

[ROLLTIDE]

Zoom

[ROLLTIDE]