DEEP SOUTH SNEAUX 1/9/11-1/11/11

[Joe-Nathan]

KINDA BULLISH BEING 9 DAYS OUT BUT THE MODELS HAVE BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT:

KLFY TV 10 Wx BLOG

Latest Model Runs Show Arctic Blast…
http://livedoppler10.com/?p=3194

The Arctic air is on the map Tuesday afternoon, with a huge pocket of sub-zero air across Central and Northern Canada. The computer models have been very consistent over the past few days in taking this air westward, then southward into next week. A monster area of high pressure is prognosticated to move down the spine of the Rockies, setting up a persistent northerly flow for areas east of there for much of next week. The northerly winds will drive our highs down into the 40s, and perhaps even the 30s, by the end of the week. That will set the stage for lows in the 20s, if not colder. What continues to be interesting, as Heath mentioned in the previous post, is the possibility of some wintry precip by the end of next week. If a low forms in the Gulf and throws moisture back into the cold air, we could see some snow - for the third winter in a row! Here is the Tuesday morning run of the long-range GFS model, valid next Thursday evening, January 13, at 6 PM.



If this were to verify, there would be a swath of snow from Texas to the Florida Panhandle. Odds are the actual scenario will be different than this. However, the probability of a significant Arctic outbreak looks higher by the day and with the cold air in place, any sort of precipitation that manages to form could be of the frozen variety. We’ll certainly keep watching the latest model runs and keep you posted on the potential.

By David Paul, January 4, 2011, 6:05 pm o'clock

[warwoman]

Joe,
I've just finished a Christmas with 9"-10" of snow up here in the Ga. mountains,and am going to be in East Texas at that time. Are you telling me I might have it AGAIN? It seems to be following me!!!

[Joe-Nathan]

Joe,
I've just finished a Christmas with 9"-10" of snow up here in the Ga. mountains,and am going to be in East Texas at that time. Are you telling me I might have it AGAIN? It seems to be following me!!!

Yes you are and my kids and I want to thank you. Looks like we might get a double shot of snow - 1st) Jan 13th and 2nd) Jan 17th.

Bring it baby.

[Joe-Nathan]

LK Charles NWS chiming in on at least the COLD AIR MASS moving in next week:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
654 PM CST TUE JAN 4 2011

THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK LOOKS DRY AS NWRLY FLOW SETS UP
ALOFT AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER. NEXT RAIN CHANCES COME
OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE NEXT MAJOR STORM SYSTEM CRASHES ASHORE
ALONG THE BAJA CALIFORNIA AND CROSSES OLD MEXICO...HELPING INDUCE
A SFC LOW OVER TX. WITH AMPLE MOISTURE PROGGED TO ACCOMPANY THIS
SYSTEM EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP...ALTHOUGH THE TIMING
DIFFERENCES IN THE GFS/ECMWF HAVE LED TO KEEPING SLIGHTLY LOWER
POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW. MUCH COLDER AIR REMAINS PROGGED TO
RUSH IN BEHIND THE FRONT AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES OVER WITH
HIGHS JUST BEYOND THE TIME FRAME OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD ONLY
EXPECTED IN THE 40S...AND POSSIBLY STAYING IN THE 30S. STAY
TUNED...

[Joe-Nathan]

AND HERE IS JACKSON, MS NWS CHIMING IN TOO W/FROZEN PRECIP HINT:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
406 PM CST TUE JAN 4 2011

DISCREPANCIES IN THE OVERALL FLOW APPEAR RESOLVED AS WE HEAD INTO
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. ARCTIC CAA WILL WIN THE DAY AS WE PLUNGE HEADLONG
INTO THE HEART OF WINTER. A FICTIOUS INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE
SRN CONUS ON THE LATEST GFS WILL HAVE NO PRAYER IN HOLDING BACK THE
SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR. THE INITIAL SURGE ARRIVES MONDAY NIGHT PER THE
ECMWF WITH FALLING TEMPS ALL DAY TUESDAY AS A 1048MB BUBBLE BREAKS
ACROSS THE MT/CANADIAN BORDER HEADING INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS AND
INTO KS(1044MB) BY LATE TUESDAY. HAVE TRENDED THE END OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD DOWNWARD IN TEMPS AND KEPT SLIGHT POPS WITH SOME MIXED PCPN
POSSIBLE...OH WHAT FUN IT WILL BE./40/

[FrenchQuarterGuy]

Oh awesome, I was looking at the GFS lately and it sure does look like this could verify... but this being over a week out, a lot of things can still happen! But I'm feeling pretty good about this one :)

[ROLLTIDE]

Alabamawx.com

It remains to be see how cold it gets here in Alabama, but it is safe to say we will be very cold in the January 12-16 time frame, with potential for single digits lows along the way with sub-freezing highs. It also remains to be seen if we have an overrunning event that would bring the potential for an ice storm here. Watch the Weather Xtreme video, and you will see the GFS hints at snow for Houston, New Orleans, Mobile, and Gulf Shores around January 13, with nothing up this way. Again, this is all voodoo.

[FrenchQuarterGuy]

Well, the cold is for sure going to be here... it's just a matter of moisture. Still praying for a flake or two :)

[HoumaLA_WXguy]

70's one week.. 30's the next, with a chance of snow.. Gotta love living in the South. :)

[ROLLTIDE]

Nashville,TN is looking at a chance of snow from now - Monday

[ROLLTIDE]

How about some Sunday deep south snow ?

FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

CLEAR AND CALM CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE DAY
SATURDAY AS DRY NORTHWEST FLOW PERSISTS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE RUNNING
NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH THE ONLY REAL CHANGE
EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AS CLOUD COVER INCREASES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
SOUTHERN STREAM S/WV...WHICH MAY BRING OUR FIRST CHANCE OF WINTRY
PRECIP FOR THE NEW YEAR.

CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST SURROUNDING THE EVOLUTION OF THIS S/WV
HAS INCREASED A BIT...ALTHOUGH WOULD LIKE TO SEE SOME RUN TO RUN
CONSISTENCY IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE BEFORE REALLY GETTING EXCITED. THE
00Z GFS/ECMWF/GEFS AND GEM HAVE ALL HONED IN(AT LEAST FOR NOW) ON A
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRACK ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF THE GULF COAST
SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...HOWEVER THE GUIDANCE STILL
SHOWS SOME DISAGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO OVERALL STRENGTH. THE GFS
PHASES THE S/WV WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM MUCH EARLIER KEEPING
SURFACE PRESSURES HIGHER...WHILE THE ECMWF AND GEM SHOW SURFACE
PRESSURES FALLING BELOW 1004MB AS THE LOW CROSSES JUST SOUTH OF THE
ARKLAMISS SUNDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON. THIS HAS IMPLICATIONS WITH
RESPECT TO QPF AMOUNTS...AS WELL ON STRENGTH OF THE NORTHERLY FLOW
AND COLD AIR ADVECTION INTO THE SYSTEM...WHICH WILL ULTIMATELY
DETERMINE WHETHER THE ARKLAMISS SEES SNOW OR RAIN. FOR NOW WILL SHOW
LIGHT RAIN SPREADING ACROSS THE ARKLAMISS SATURDAY EVENING...AND
WILL THEN BEGIN TO SHOW A POSSIBLE TRANSITION TO SNOW FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS COLD AIR FILTERS SOUTH. THE CHANCE OF
SNOW WILL SPREAD ACROSS ALL AREAS BY SUNDAY EVENING.

[ROLLTIDE]

[ROLLTIDE]

[ROLLTIDE]

[ROLLTIDE]

....

AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
355 PM CST WED JAN 5 2011

...WINTER WEATHER POSSIBLE OVER THE COMING WEEKEND...

.DISCUSSION...SHORT TERM(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT) DAMP GROUNDS
HAVE RESULTED FROM LAST NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING RAINFALL THAT HAS
AVERAGED ABOUT ONE QUARTER TO ONE THIRD OF AN INCH WITH LOCALLY ONE
HALF TO ONE INCH IN OUR SERN MOST MS COUNTIES. A LINGERING PATCH OF
DRIZZLE WILL EXIT ERN MS SHORTLY AS SATELLITE SHOWING A DECENT
CLEARING AXIS FROM LAKE PROVIDENCE TO MERIDIAN SWWD. A WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AXIS NEAR A KMSL-KMEI-KHBG LINE WILL CONTINUE EWD AS A LIGHT
NLY GRADIENT(3MB) SURFACE FLOW DEVELOPS TONIGHT AND SHOULD HELP KEEP
ANY SHALLOW FOG FROM GETTING TOO THICK. DRYING AIRMASS SHOULD STAY
AHEAD OF THE FALLING TEMPS IN MOST CASES BUT WILL KEEP PATCHY FOG IN
ZONES FOR SHELTERED/LOW LYING AREAS.

ON THURSDAY...PLENTY OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED BEFORE LATE MORNING WITH
STEADY NW FLOW GETTING SOME REINFORCING COLD ADVECTION WITH A
SECONDARY MID LEVEL TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON. A 5MB
GRADIENT DEVELOPS TO KEEP TEMPERATURES SEASONABLY COOL A A WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE AXIS BUILDING OVER TX RIDGES DOWN INTO THE WRN GULF. WILL
HAVE TO BE MONITORING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FOR ANY EMBEDDED MOISTURE
POCKETS AS UPPER FLOW INTENSIFIES AROUND A DEVELOPING POLAR VORTEX IN
THE GREAT LAKES REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. THE 200MB WIND SPEEDS APPROACH
140KTS ACROSS THE REGION BY EARLY FRIDAY SETTING THE STAGE FOR A
STEADY COOL DOWN OVER THE WEEKEND./40/

THEN IN THE LONGER TERM(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES INTO SATURDAY GIVES WAY TO INCREASING CLOUD COVER
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SOUTHERN STREAM S/WV. HAVE OPTED TO TREND THE
FORECAST CLOSER TO THE 12Z ECMWF/GFS SCENARIOS WITH A SLOWER
ADVANCEMENT OF THE MAIN TROUGH NOT SWINGING OUT INTO THE GULF UNTIL
SUNDAY VERSUS SATURDAY NIGHT PER THE EARLIER GFS. EITHER MODEL SHOULD
BRING THE FIRST CHANCE OF WINTRY PRECIP IN THE NEW YEAR TO OUR CWFA.

CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST SURROUNDING THE EVOLUTION OF THIS S/WV
HAS INCREASED A BIT...ALTHOUGH WOULD LIKE TO SEE NEED MORE RUN TO
RUN CONSISTENCY. AT THIS POINT WILL MENTION THE POSSIBILITY IN THE
HWOJAN OUTLOOK BUT KEEP FROM GETTING TOO DETAILED AS GUIDANCE STILL
SHOWS SOME DISAGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO OVERALL STRENGTH. THE GFS
PHASES THE S/WV WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM MUCH EARLIER KEEPING SURFACE
PRESSURES HIGHER AND FARTHER S...WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS A RATHER
ROBUST SURFACE LOW BELOW 1004MB CROSSING JUST SOUTH OF THE ARKLAMISS
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A LOT OF POTENTIAL WET-BULBING FROM THE INCREASING
RATES OF PRECIPITATION. THIS HAS IMPLICATIONS WITH RESPECT TO QPF
AMOUNTS...AS WELL ON STRENGTH OF THE NORTHERLY FLOW AND COLD AIR
ADVECTION INTO THE SYSTEM...WHICH WILL ULTIMATELY DETERMINE WHETHER
THE ARKLAMISS SEES RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW...SLEET AND/OR POTENTIALLY
FREEZING RAIN. FOR NOW WILL SHOW LIGHT RAIN SPREADING ACROSS THE
ARKLAMISS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...AND WILL THEN BEGIN TO SHOW A POSSIBLE
TRANSITION TO SNOW FROM NORTH TO SOUTH SUNDAY MORNING AS COLD AIR
FILTERS SOUTH. THE CHANCE OF SNOW WILL SPREAD ACROSS ALL AREAS BY
SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO EARLY MONDAY.

THE LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY
MONDAY MORNING...AND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A RATHER COLD STRETCH OF
WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK AS ARCTIC CANADIAN AIR FILTERS SOUTH
FROM OUT OVER THE PLAINS. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
STRENGTHEN MONDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD DOME SAGS SOUTH KEEPING WIND
SPEEDS AROUND 10 MPH THROUGH THE NIGHT...INCREASING INTO THE 15-20
MPH RANGE DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. COUPLED WITH THE OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE MID 20S AND DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S...WIND CHILLS
MON NIGHT FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWER TEENS IS NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION. REPRIEVE FROM THE COLD AIR DOESNT APPEAR TO COME
UNTIL LATE NEXT WEEK.

[Joe-Nathan]

LOOKS LIKE WE MIGHT GET SOME WINTER MIX ON SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY!!!

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
851 PM CST WED JAN 5 2011

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 432 PM CST WED JAN 5 2011/

DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE AREA. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO RUN NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH SATURDAY. NEXT SYSTEM STILL EXPECTED
TO AFFECT THE AREA ON SUNDAY...WITH LATEST MODEL RUNS A LITTLE
SLOWER AND FURTHER SOUTH THAN PREVIOUSLY SEEN. BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF TAKE THE SFC LOW ACRS THE NW GULF WITH THE GFS FURTHEST SOUTH.
LOOKS LIKE BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL OCCUR FROM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. EXPECT MAINLY RAIN WITH WARM SECTOR TO REMAIN
OFFSHORE...ALTHOUGH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE POSSIBLE ALONG
THE COAST AND OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. WITH THESE LATEST MODEL
RUNS IN MIND...MAY NEED TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST A
MIX OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES...BUT AT THIS
TIME THINK COLDEST AIR WON'T MOVE IN UNTIL MOISTURE/PRECIP HAVE
ALREADY SHIFTED EAST.

[FrenchQuarterGuy]

Might need to change the title of this thread... since Jan 13th at the moment seems to be dry now.
The models keep going back and forth on the cold spell, but I believe it will be colder than the newest forecasts and more along the lines of 40s for highs next week, instead of 50ish here in S LA.

And as much of a wishcaster that I like to be, I say no way in hell will the NOLA area see any wintry stuff Sunday night. Cold, cold rain... But still wishing!

[Joe-Nathan]

Here is Shreveport NWS chiming in on some Winter Mix for SUN - MON:


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
353 PM CST WED JAN 5 2011

DISCUSSION


THE SFC-850MB LOW ACROSS SRN LA WILL ENHANCE COLD ADVECTION FROM THE
MID-SOUTH REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...AS THE OPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
BEGINS TO EXIT THE REGION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THERE COULD BE
A TRANSITION OVER TO A LIGHT SLEET/SNOW MIX LATE SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS
SE OK/SW AR/ERN SECTIONS OF NCNTRL LA ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SFC-850MB
LOW OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY...AND AHEAD OF WEAK TROUGHINESS ALONG THE
RED RIVER VALLEY OF SRN OK/N TX AND WRN AR. THIS WILL OF COURSE DEPEND
ON ANY REMAINING MOISTURE LEFTOVER...AND THE TIMING/POSITION OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL FEATURES. THIS WILL BE WATCHED CLOSELY...BUT
WEAK OVERALL FORCING WILL LIMIT THE OVERALL COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF
ANYTHING THAT MAY DEVELOP...IF IT EVEN DOES SO AT ALL.

DID INSERT MENTION OF LIGHT SLEET/SNOW/RAIN MIX FOR SE OK/SW
AR MONDAY...AHEAD OF THE CLOSED LOW THAT WILL DRIFT E ACROSS THE
PLAINS/MS VALLEY MONDAY/TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL PLUNGE A DEEP ARCTIC
AIR MASS SEWRD INTO THE SRN PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY...WITH SOME OF THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES NOT SEEN THUS
FAR THIS WINTER SEASON...ESPECIALLY AS THE SNOW PACK SHOULD BE FARTHER
S ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN CO/NE/KS/POSSIBLY NRN OK. ANY WINTRY MIX ACROSS
THE NRN ZONES MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL BE
LIGHT...WITH TEMPS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY. BY THE TIME TEMPS ARE ABLE TO FALL TO NEAR FREEZING MONDAY
NIGHT...DEEP LYR MOISTURE/FORCING WILL BE DIMINISHING...THUS AM NOT
EXPECTING MUCH OF A WINTRY THREAT FOR OUR REGION OTHER THAN THE
PROLONGED COLD TEMPERATURES INVADING OUR AREA. DID LOWER TEMPS QUITE A
BIT IN THE EXTENDED NEXT WEEK...SUCH THAT MUCH OF THE AREA MAY REMAIN
BELOW 40 DEGREES FOR AT LEAST A 48-60 HR PERIOD. INCREASING ELEVATED
MOISTURE BENEATH THIS UPPER VORTEX LOOKS TO ULTIMATELY DICTATE HOW
LOW MINS WILL FALL OVERNIGHT...GIVEN THE STRONG 1040+MB ARCTIC RIDGE
IN PLACE. IN ANY CASE...EXTENDED PERIODS OF BELOW FREEZING TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED NEXT WEEK...AND PREPARATIONS FOR THIS PROLONGED COLD SNAP
SHOULD BE MADE BY THIS WEEKEND IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW BELOW...

15

[Joe-Nathan]

Might need to change the title of this thread... since Jan 13th at the moment seems to be dry now.
The models keep going back and forth on the cold spell, but I believe it will be colder than the newest forecasts and more along the lines of 40s for highs next week, instead of 50ish here in S LA.

And as much of a wishcaster that I like to be, I say no way in hell will the NOLA area see any wintry stuff Sunday night. Cold, cold rain... But still wishing!

Well if the snow pack extends all the way thru OKL and ARK, then we should see a significant ARCTIC COLD BLAST.

And Yes it is looking like the moisture will be on the front side of this event and not sneak back in on Thursday(13th).

[ROLLTIDE]

KMOB

LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT ON)BY THE END OF THE SHORT TERM...THE
NEXT WEATHER MAKER FOR THE AREA IS MOVING EAST ALONG THE US/MEX
BORDER. THE ECMWF STILL CONTINUES TO BE THE MORE ORGANIZED SYSTEM. BY
SUNDAY MORNING...THESE TWO SOLUTIONS HAVE SHOWN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH TIMING AND PATH. THROUGH THE WEEKEND...A SHORTWAVE SYSTEM OVER
THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS AND A SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTH OVER THE
NORTHEAST IS CAUSING SLIGHT SYNOPTIC PATH DIFFERENCES...BUT FOR THE
FA...THESE END UP BEING SIGNIFICANT. THE ECMWF TAKES A SLIGHT MORE
NORTHERLY PATH THAN THE GFS...RESULTING A GENERAL RAIN EVENT...WHILE
THE MORE SOUTHERLY PATH OF THE GFS PAINTS SNOW MOVING OVER NORTHERN
PARTS OF THE FA. WITH THE ENSEMBLES LEANING TOWARDS THE WARMER ECMWF
SOLUTION...HAVE BUMPED THE GFS TOWARDS THE WARMER SIDE...RESULTING IN
SOME LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE OVER NORTHERN-MOST PARTS OF THE FA LATE
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST-NORTHEAST...A
SLIGHT WARM-UP OCCURS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...ENDING THE
CHANCES FOR WINTER PRECIP...THOUGH AM EXPECTING RAIN TO LAST INTO
TUESDAY...WITH SOME WRAP AROUND SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE FA.

FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS OF THE FORECAST...THE GFS IS ADVERTISING A
BUNCH OF UPPER SHORTWAVES DIVING INTO A DEVELOPING UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE PLAINS...WHILE THE ECMWF IS ADVERTISING A SINGLE SHORTWAVE OVER
N-ERN MEX...WITH A STRONGER SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTH OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN CONUS. THE ONLY AGREEMENT AMONGST THEM IS THAT THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WILL BE COOLER THAN SEASONAL. HAVE WENT WITH A
BLEND OF ALL THE SOLUTIONS TO COME UP WITH WHAT IS HOPED TO BE THE
BEST COMPROMISE.