DEEP SOUTH SNEAUX 1/9/11-1/11/11

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[Joe-Nathan]

DANG!!! 3" to 6" for the ARKLATEX!!! THAT IS A LOT OF SNOW!!! NAM FOR JAN 10th:

[Joe-Nathan]

SHREVEPORT FORECAST CHART FOR SAT 6PM - MON 6PM:

[Joe-Nathan]

JACKSON, MS FORECAST CHART FROM SUN 12AM - TUES 12AM:

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Major Winter Storm Ahead

James Spann | 6:30 am January 7, 2011 | Comments (17)
An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.
Up front, just a reminder this event is still about 48 hours from beginning, so this forecast could (and probably will) change, so keep an eye on the blog for updates.
TODAY/TOMORROW: While snow is possible northeast of Alabama over East Tennessee, down here the weather will be dry through tomorrow. The high will be up in the mid 50s today, so it certainly won’t feel like a winter storm is coming. The weather will be colder tomorrow with a high in the 40s. I should note that our friends up in the northeast corner of Alabama might see a few sprinkles or flurries today or tomorrow, mostly over Jackson and DeKalb Counties.
MAJOR WINTER STORM POTENTIAL: A strong short wave aloft will reflect a surface low in the Northwest Gulf of Mexico late tomorrow night, and precipitation will spread into Southwest Alabama Sunday morning. At the onset this precipitation could be sleet or freezing rain, even as far south as U.S. 84. Then, during the day Sunday, that precipitation will spread northeast, and cover all of Alabama by late Sunday afternoon.
NORTH ALABAMA: The precipitation north of U.S. 278 (Hamilton to Cullman to Gadsden) should be mostly in the form of snow. The snow will be heavy at times Sunday night. We are projecting potential for 4-7 inches of snow in this region, and where the deformation axis sets up, we might hear of isolated 10 inch amounts, especially across the higher elevations.
CENTRAL ALABAMA: Down this way, through North-Central Alabama, the most challenging part of the forecast is dealing with the precipitation type. There is no doubt there will be some freezing rain involved, in addition to snow, and defining that exact line is almost impossible at this time. For the broad area south of U.S. 278 (Hamilton to Cullman to Gadsden), and north of U.S. 80 (Demopolis to Selma to Montgomery to Opelika), there will be a wintry mix, heavy at times, with potential for some significant ice accumulation in that zone. Perhaps enough for some power outages due to ice build-up on trees and power lines. We are projecting snow amounts of 2-4 inches, with ice involved as well.
SOUTH ALABAMA: There could be some icy issues down to U.S. 84, but they will be more isolated in nature. Much of the precipitation could be in the form of rain, but we have seen evidence in modeling of freezing rain Sunday night possible down to Alabama 10 (Butler to Camden to Greenville to Troy).
The graphic below is a POTENTIAL accumulation forecast. We all know that snow doesn’t follow those nice straight lines we draw on these maps. Just a basic guideline on the thinking this morning. Be aware this graphic probably will change as we get closer to the event…

Here is a FAQ for you on the storm (frequently asked questions)…
TIMING: The main impact of this winter storm will come from about 12:00 noon Sunday through 12:00 noon Monday. Keep in mind there could be some issues Sunday morning over West and Southwest Alabama.
WHAT ABOUT TRAVEL? Travel will become difficult by Sunday evening across North-Central Alabama, and perhaps impossible late Sunday night as the snow and freezing rain becomes widespread and heavy at times. Understand we could see some icy travel as early as Sunday morning over West and Southwest Alabama, with the problems advancing northeastward during the day. It is likely that many schools will be closed Monday, with travel very icy Monday morning.
Expect flight delays at the Birmingham-Shuttlesworth International Airport Sunday night and Monday. Perhaps major delays. Keep in mind this same winter storm will be affecting airports in Atlanta, Memphis, and Nashville. Air travel will be very frustrating, most likely, Sunday through Monday.
POWER OUTAGES? Somebody over Central Alabama could very well see enough ice accumulation for some power outages, but at this point we simply don’t have the skill to define that area. The greatest risk of ice accumulation is south of U.S. 278, and north of U.S. 80. We do not expect the icing to be as significant as 1980, but it could be similar to 1996.
REMEMBER: We always have people asking about just about every county and community in our large market… no way we can address every single community; just see the maps we produce and pick out your hometown for the potential impact.
STANDARD DISCLAIMER: Long time readers know what I am going to say here. With every winter storm in Alabama, there will be surprises. And, there will be some delighted with the amount of snow they see, and others severely disappointed.
REST OF NEXT WEEK: We might see a few flurries Tuesday morning, but generally speaking the rest of next week will be cold and dry.
JAN 16-20: Still some concern we will have a major Arctic invasion in this time frame with potential for temperatures near record levels… see the Weather Xtreme video for more on this.

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Mobile,NWS

LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND CURRENT FCST PACKAGE
CONTINUES TO HAVE THIS PRECIPITATION REMAINING LIQUID OVER THE
SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE FCST AREA...AND A MIX OF LIGHT SNOW...
RAIN AND SLEET OVER NORTHERN THIRD OF THE FCST AREA.

AS THE OVERRUNNING INCREASES WITH THE SURFACE LOW ADVANCING
EASTWARD...POPS INCREASE TO LIKELY OVER NEARLY ALL OF THE FORECAST
AREA ON SUNDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...AND THIS IS WHEN
WE EXPECT THE HEAVIEST PCPN. OVER THE INTERIOR PORTION OF THE AREA ON
SUNDAY...MODEL SOUNDINGS STILL SHOWING AN ELEVATED LAYER ALOFT FROM
ROUGHLY 675-900 MB WARMING TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE
DAY...WITH ABOUT A 100 MB DEEP SUBFREEZING LAYER BENEATH...WHILE
CLOSER TO THE COAST SOUNDINGS DO NOT HAVE THE SUBFREEZING LOW LEVEL
LAYER. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE PCPN ON SUNDAY TO BE A MIX OF
RAIN...SNOW AND SLEET OVER NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE FCST
AREA...WITH RAIN ELSEWHERE. THE SOUNDINGS INDICATE HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF
AT LEAST MIXED PRECIPITATION CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY OVER
THE INTERIOR PORTION OF THE FCST AREA. IT APPEARS MORE LIKELY THAT
THE PREDOMINANT TYPE OF PCPN WILL BE SLEET OR EVEN POSSIBLY FREEZING
RAIN OVER THE INTERIOR ZONES ON SUNDAY...AND WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN
EYE ON MODEL SOUNDING TRENDS AS WE NEAR THE EVENT.

BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW WARMING IN THE
LOWEST LAYERS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AFTER MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH
THE GFS ELIMINATING THE LOW LEVEL SUBFREEZING LAYER OVER INTERIOR
ZONES BY AROUND 12Z MONDAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH MIXED PRECIPITATION OVER
NORTHERNMOST ZONES SUNDAY NIGHT...TRANSITIONING TO PURELY LIQUID BY
AROUND SUNRISE MONDAY...BUT THIS COULD CHANGE WITH A NEED TO STAY
WITH A MIX INLAND DURING THE ENTIRE NIGHT. AT THIS TIME...WE ARE NOT
EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION OF WINTRY PCPN...BUT WITH
COLDER TEMPS NOW EXPECTED THAN FROM PREVIOUS FCST CYCLE...COULD
SEE SOME ACCRETION ON EXPOSED SURFACES AND BRIDGES. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THIS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW/MID
50S...WITH SATURDAY NIGHT LOWS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 20S INLAND
AND LOWER 30S ALONG THE COAST. SUNDAY HIGH TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE LOW/MID 40S INLAND...UPPER 40S/LOW 50S ALONG THE COAST. SUNDAY
NIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER 30S FAR INTERIOR TO LOWER 40S
COASTAL. 12/DS

&&

.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...THE SURFACE LOW EXITS TO THE
EAST ON MONDAY WITH PRECIPITATION TAPERING OFF OVER THE FORECAST
AREA BY MONDAY NIGHT. STILL HAVE CHALLENGES WITH PRECIPITATION TYPE
ON MONDAY...BUT GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS MOSTLY INDICATE A COLD LIGHT
RAIN OR DRIZZLE...BUT A FEW FLURRIES COULD BE POSSIBLE OVER INTERIOR
ZONES. A LARGE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH BELOW SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES CONTINUING THROUGH THE
PERIOD. 12/DS

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Freezing rain chances are increasing further south

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
340 AM EST FRI JAN 7 2011



SUNDAY...POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL BEGIN TO SHEAR OUT AS IT MOVES EAST
ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE EAST
AS WELL TO A POSITION NEAR THE MS DELTA SUNDAY EVENING. STILL
APPEARS THAT THE BULK OF THE RAINFALL WILL HOLD OFF ARRIVING ACROSS
THE WESTERN ZONES UNTIL LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND MORE LIKELY SUNDAY
EVENING. HOWEVER...IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL UPGLIDE AHEAD OF THE LOW
WILL LIKELY GET THINGS GOING EARLIER THAN CURRENTLY SHOWN. THEREFORE
HAVE CHANCE POPS FOR DEVELOPING SHOWERS OVER THE PANHANDLE/SE AL
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. FORECAST BEGINS TO GET COMPLICATED OVER OUR FAR
NORTHERN ZONES AS THIS RAIN BEGINS FALLING INTO A COOL AND DRY
AIRMASS BEING SUPPLIED FROM THE HIGH TO OUR NORTH. WITH THE WARM
FRONT HOLDING NEAR THE COAST...THE SUPPLY OF DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR
WILL CONTINUE. WET-BULBING EFFECTS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY LOWER
SURFACE TEMPS INTO THE 30S SUNDAY EVENING FROM DOTHAN TO ALBANY AND
NORTHWARD. SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE WET-BULBING DOWN TO A
BORDERLINE FREEZING RAIN PROFILE. THE POSSIBILITY OF FREEZING RAIN
OVER OUR FAR NORTHERN ZONES IS STILL LOW AT THIS TIME...ESPECIALLY
SINCE SURFACE OBJECTS ARE LIKELY TO TAKE SOME TIME TO EQUALIZE WITH
THE AMBIENT TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...SINCE SEVERAL RUNS IN A ROW HAVE
SHOWN PROFILES CLOSE TO FREEZING RAIN...WILL ADD A CHANCE OF
FREEZING RAIN TO THE LIKELY/CATEGORICAL RAIN NORTH OF DOTHAN AND
ALBANY SUNDAY NIGHT.

BY 12Z MONDAY SHORTWAVE DIVES INTO NE GULF REINFORCES LOW WHICH
SLIDES EWD TO LOCAL AREA WITH WARM FRONT DRAPED ACROSS FL/GA BORDER.
MAIN CONCERN WOULD BE ACROSS NRN TIER OF GA/AL COUNTIES SUN NIGHT
INTO EARLY MON. MODELS/BUFKIT REMAIN CONSISTENT THAT ANY PRECIP OVER
NRN COUNTIES WILL BE FALLING INTO A CHILLY/AND STILL DRY AIRMASS
WHICH COULD PRODUCE FREEZING RAIN THERE. NEW HPC GUIDANCE BRINGS
WINTER WX (FREEZING RAIN) RIGHT TO OUR NRN BORDER. WILL INTRODUCE
CATEGORICAL RAIN AND CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN BEGINNING 00Z MON
ACROSS MOST OF SE ALA SPREADING EWD BY 4AM TO A LINE NORTH FORM
ALBANY TO BEN HILL COUNTIES. BY SUNRISE...DRY AIR APPEARS TO BE
CUTOFF HERALDING END POTENTIAL WINTRY MIX.

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06Z NAM

Monroe County, MS - 4.8" snow, 0.68" sleet, 0.10" ZR
Tupelo, MS - 13.0" snow, 0.25" sleet, 0.21" ZR
Memphis - 9.3" snow
Tuscaloosa - Nothing but rain
HSV - 10.4" snow, 0.11" sleet, 0.15" ZR
BHM - 0.5" snow, 0.19" sleet, 0.94" ZR
ANB - 1.2" snow, 0.44" sleet, 1.13" ZR
ATL - 2.7" snow, 0.39" sleet, 0.52" ZR

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Huntsville,AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
401 AM CST FRI JAN 7 2011

...POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL EXISTS ACROSS THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...

.SYNOPSIS...
U/A ANALYSIS SHOWING STRONG 140+KT JET STRETCHING FROM THE NRN HIGH
PLAINS TO THE SRN APPALACHIANS AS A BROAD POLAR VORTEX PINWHEELS
ACROSS ERN CANADA. MID/HIGH CLOUDS HAVE PROGRESSED ACROSS THE AREA
IN ASSOCIATION WITH UPR JET/MID LVL ENERGY. DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL
WITH THE CLOSEST PRECIP IN THE FORM OF -SN BEING REPORTED ACROSS THE
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF ERN TN. 09Z TEMPS WERE GENERALLY IN THE MID
TO UPR 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
AFOREMENTIONED POLAR VORTEX WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR SENDING SEVERAL
PIECES OF ENERGY SOUTH/EAST ACROSS THE ERN CONUS OVER THE NEXT 24 TO
36 HOURS. MUCH OF THIS ENERGY WILL REMAIN NORTH AND EAST OF THE TN
VALLEY. HOWEVER...STEEPENING LOW LVL LAPSE RATES COUPLED WITH A
STRONG UPR JET COULD GENERATE A FEW -SHRA LATER THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS SRN TN AND NE AL. THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS COULD SEE A MIX OF
RAIN/SNOW BUT NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. ANY THREAT OF PRECIP
IS EXPECTED TO END THIS EVENING. STRENGTHENING WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW
AHEAD OF A DEEPENING SFC LOW WILL HELP BUMP TEMPS UP A FEW DEGREES
FROM THURSDAY. IT WILL ALSO RESULT IN BREEZY CONDITIONS THIS AFTN
AS WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 15-25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH
POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

EVERYTHING SHIFTS EAST SATURDAY AS A S/W RIDGE BUILDS IN ADVANCE OF
NEXT STORM SYSTEM. COLDER AIR WILL FILTER ACROSS THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT WHICH WILL DROP TEMPS SOME 10-15F DEGREES ON SATURDAY
DESPITE A "MOSTLY SUNNY" DAY.

SUNDAY...ATTENTION TURNS TO THE SOUTH/WEST AS AN EASTWARD MOVING UPR
LOW GENERATES SFC CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE SOUTH TEXAS COAST. MOISTURE
WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM THE WEST WITH SOME LIGHT PRECIP
POSSIBLE SOUTH OF THE TENNESSEE RIVER LATE IN THE DAY /THOUGH MODELS
ARE SHOWING SOME DISCREPANCY WITH THE ONSET OF PRECIP/. SOUNDING
PROFILES SHOW AIRMASS IS COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT PRECIP IN THE FORM
OF SNOW...THOUGH SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AT THE ONSET AS LOW
LVL MOISTURE REMAINS RATHER LIMITED. HEAVIER PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO
ARRIVE SUNDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
CLASSIC "OVERRUNNING" EVENT SETS UP SUNDAY NIGHT AS SYSTEM TRACKS
EAST ALONG THE GULF COAST. DEEP MOISTURE COUPLED WITH STRONG
SYNOPTIC FORCING WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL ACROSS NRN AL/SRN
TN SUNDAY NIGHT. STRONG H7-6 DEFORMATION IS NOTED ACROSS THE AREA BY
06Z/MON...AROUND THE SAME TIME THAT THE H5 LOW /EJECTING ACROSS THE
ARKLAMISS REGION/ PROVIDES ENHANCED MID LVL LIFT WITHIN SATURATED
LAYER. TOP OF SATURATED LAYER IS IN THE -18C TO -22C REGION THROUGH
12Z/MON...SO AT THIS TIME...EXPECT HEAVIEST SNOWFALL TO GENERALLY
OCCUR BTWN 00Z-12Z/MON.

GIVEN DURATION OF POTENTIALLY MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW...SIGNIFICANT
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY MONDAY. INITIAL ESTIMATES SUGGEST A GENERAL 2 TO 4 INCH
SWATH OF SNOW WILL BLANKET MUCH OF NRN AL/SRN TN
...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS TO 6 INCHES
POSSIBLE BY MONDAY MORNING. GIVEN WE ARE STILL 3+ DAYS OUT FROM
THIS POTENTIAL WINTER STORM...SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH STORM TRACK.
..PRECIP TYPE/DURATION AND TIMING. WILL GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A "WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK" AS AN
`SPS` TO ADDRESS CURRENT THINKING AND HIGHLIGHT POTENTIAL THREATS.

MONDAY...MOISTURE WILL DECREASE AND SOME WARMING ALOFT WILL OCCUR AS
SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST. AS THIS OCCURS...THE HEAVIER PRECIP
WILL END WITH LINGERING "SHOWERY" ACTIVITY NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
MUCH ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION. SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT ENOUGH WARM AIR
ALOFT COULD CREATE A WINTRY MIX OF SNOW/SLEET AND PERHAPS EVEN RAIN
OVER AREAS WHERE SFC TEMPS WARM ABOVE FREEZING. IN ANY CASE...PRECIP
IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT ON MONDAY AS BEST FORCING/UPR DYNAMICS SHIFT
EAST OF THE AREA.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE HINTING AT A
SECONDARY /ALBEIT WEAKER/ SFC LOW DEVELOPING SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE
OHIO AND TN VALLEY REGIONS LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS AN UPR
LVL LOW EJECTS EAST FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS COULD BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF WINTRY PRECIP TO THE AREA BUT ANY ADDITIONAL PRECIP
APPEARS TO BE LIGHT AT THIS TIME.

DRIER AND COLD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
UNDERCUT TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE SLIGHTLY TO ACCOUNT FOR POTENTIAL SNOW
COVER. NADLER.83

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[dkmac]

Shreveport NWS:

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
506 AM CST FRI JAN 7 2011

...WINTER STORM POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FOUR STATE
REGION THIS WEEKEND...

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE FOUR STATE
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH WINTER PRECIPITATION
POSSIBLE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR OF NORTHEAST
TEXAS AND NORTHERN LOUISIANA...INCLUDING SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
SOUTHERN ARKANSAS. PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS JUST RAIN IN THE WEST...BUT THROUGH EVAPORATIVE
COOLING...A MIXTURE OF RAIN...MIXED WITH SLEET AND SNOW WILL BE
POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. SUNDAY WILL BE A COLD AND RAW DAY
ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH COLD AIR IN PLACE
FOR A SLEET AND SNOW MIXTURE ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...WHILE FURTHER SOUTH NEAR THE INTERSTATE 20
CORRIDOR OF NORTHEAST TEXAS AND NORTHERN LOUISIANA...A MIXTURE OF
RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW WILL ALL BE POSSIBLE. PRECIPITATION SHOULD
TURN INTO ALL SNOW ACROSS SOUTHERN ARKANSAS AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
SUNDAY NIGHT WHILE THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A MIXTURE OF SLEET
AND SNOW FURTHER SOUTH NEAR INTERSTATE 20 BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION
TRIES TO COME TO AND END LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. ACCUMULATING SLEET AND
SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS WINTER STORM THIS WEEKEND...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS BEGINNING LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...AND CONTINUING
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...COULD TOTAL 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH ISOLATED
HIGHER AMOUNTS ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS.
FURTHER SOUTH NEAR THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR OF NORTHEAST TEXAS
AND NORTHERN LOUISIANA... SLIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF SLEET AND SNOW
WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

WINTER STORM WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR AT LEAST THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR REGION FOR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT AND THIS WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

UNCERTAINTY DOES EXIST AS TO JUST HOW FAR SOUTH WINTER PRECIPITATION
ACCUMULATION WILL BE POSSIBLE. JUST A SLIGHT SOUTHWARD SHIFT OF THIS
STORM SYSTEM WOULD RESULT IN HIGHER SLEET AND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...
FURTHER SOUTH ALONG THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR. THE PROGRESS OF THIS
SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.

SOUTH OF A LINE FROM RUSK AND NACOGDOCHES TEXAS...TO NEAR
NATCHITOCHES...WINNFIELD AND JENA LOUISIANA...IT APPEARS THAT THIS
WEEKEND STORM SYSTEM WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS.

PREPARATIONS FOR A WINTER STORM...WITH ACCUMULATING SLEET AND OR
SNOW...SHOULD BE MADE FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE
20 CORRIDOR BY SATURDAY.

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...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1045 AM CST FRI JAN 7 2011

...CONFIDENCE INCREASING ON A POTENTIAL SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER
EVENT LATE THIS WEEKEND...

.UPDATE...NOT MUCH GOING ON TODAY. CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM MOVING
THROUGH THE EASTERN US WILL BRING A PUSH OF COLDER/DRIER AIR INTO
THE REGION NEXT 24 HOURS. MODELS HAVE TRENDED A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE
WITH THIS PUSH...WHICH HAS AN IMPACT ON THE EVOLUTION OF WINTER
STORM LATER IN THE WEEKEND. NOT ANTICIPATING ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
TO THE FORECAST FOR TODAY.

WITH REGARD TO THE BIG SYSTEM LATER THIS WEEKEND...QUICK LOOK AT NEW
12Z GFS/NAM INDICATE A CONTINUING TREND IN THOSE MODELS TOWARD A
COLDER SOLUTION. THESE NEW MODELS INDICATE PRIMARILY SNOW OR
SNOW/SLEET MIX FOR MUCH OF THE AREA N OF I-20...WITH AN INCREASED
RISK OF WINTRY MIX AND FREEZING RAIN FARTHER S TOWARD THE HIGHWAY 84
CORRIDOR. WILL OBVIOUSLY BE LOOKING AT THESE MODELS IN GREATER
DETAIL...AS WELL AS THE 12Z CANADIAN AND PARTICULARLY ECMWF...WHICH
HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY THE COLDEST/SNOWIEST SOLUTION FOR THIS
SYSTEM. ALSO WORTH NOTIN G THAT THE 09Z SREF TRENDED MUCH MORE
AGGRESSIVE AS WELL AS FAR AS SNOW/ICE...LOOKING QUITE OMINOUS
CONSIDERING WE ARE LOOKING AT STILL 60 HOURS OUT ON THAT ENSEMBLE.
NEEDLESS TO SAY...CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE ON A WINTER STORM
THAT LOOKS TO HAVE A MAJOR IMPACT ON OUR AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. WE
WILL BE PARTICIPATING IN A REGIONAL CONFERENCE CALL WITH HPC THIS
AFTERNOON...AND EXPECT TO BE ISSUING WINTER STORM WATCHES FOR PARTS
OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.