1/25/11-1/26/11 Deep South Upper Level Low event

[ROLLTIDE]

[ROLLTIDE]

NEXT

[ROLLTIDE]

....

A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW HAS OCCURRED ACROSS STEWART COUNTY WITHIN
THE LAST HOUR. NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION HAS BEEN REPORTED AT
THIS TIME. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS LOCATIONS ALONG AND
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40 AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 65...THROUGH 8 PM.

FOR OTHER LOCATIONS ACROSS THE MID STATE...LOOK FOR A CONTINUANCE
OF WIDESPREAD...MAINLY LIGHT...RAINFALL THROUGH 800 PM...AS
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING.
HOURLY RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE BETWEEN ONE TENTH TO
AROUND ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH. HOWEVER...WITHIN THIS LARGE AREA OF
RAINFALL ACROSS THE MID STATE...EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE A POSSIBILITY...PRODUCING HOURLY RAINFALL AMOUNTS
FROM AROUND ONE QUARTER...TO AS MUCH AS AROUND ONE HALF OF AN
INCH...THROUGH 800 PM ALSO.

[Joe-Nathan]

NEXT

Crap that is a lot of snow for n. LA.

[Joe-Nathan]

This thing is going to dump some serious snow in the NE:

PROBABILISTIC HEAVY SNOW AND ICING DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
340 AM EST WED JAN 26 2011

VALID 12Z WED JAN 26 2011 - 12Z SAT JAN 29 2011
 

DAYS 1 TO 3...

...SRN/CNTRL APPALACHIANS TO CNTRL/NRN MID-ATLANTIC AND ERN NEW
ENGLAND...

A STG CLSD LOW CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE TN VLY IS EXPECTED TO
CROSS THE SRN APPALACHIANS BY THIS AFTERNOON AND SHOULD ADVANCE
PROGRESSIVELY NEWD UP ACRS NC/SRN VA THIS EVENING AND TO JUST OFF
CAPE COD BY LATE TONIGHT/EARLY THU. MEANWHILE SFC LOW PRES
CURRENTLY ORGANIZING OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL REORGANIZE JUST OFF
THE SRN MID-ATL COAST THIS MORNING AND ADVANCE RAPIDLY NNEWD UP
ALONG OR JUST OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...BEFORE THEN MOVING MORE NEWD OFF NEW ENGLAND AND TWD THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES BY EARLY THU. ALREADY DEEP MSTR TRANSPORT AND
STG WARM ADVECTION COUPLED WITH INCREASINGLY DIV FLOW ALOFT IS
YIELDING AN EXPANSIVE SHIELD OF PCPN INVOLVING THE MID-ATLANTIC
AND CNTRL/SRN APPALACHIANS. ALREADY SEEING A DEFORMATION
ZONE/COMMA-HEAD FEATURE WITH MORE DYNAMICALLY ENHANCED PCPN
OCCURRING BACK INTO THE TN VLY AS THE OVERALL SYS CONTINUES TO
AMPLIFY/DEEPEN.
  
AGAIN...A VERY TRICKY SNOWFALL FORECAST WITH THIS SYS AS THERE IS
EXPECTED TO BE JUST ENOUGH COLD AIR IN PLACE ACRS THE CNTRL
APPALACHIANS AND ALSO THE INTERIOR OF THE CNTRL/NRN MID-ATLANTIC
AND EASTERN NEW ENGLAND FOR HVY SNOW WITH THIS EAST COAST STORM.
THERE IS CURRENTLY A LACK ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST
AND MUCH OF THE DEEP COLD AIR THAT WAS IN PLACE HAS ERODED OVER
THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS...ESP IN THE MID-ATLANTIC AND TO A LESSER
EXTENT OVER NEW ENGLAND. NEVERTHELESS...A CONSENSUS OF THE LATEST
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS JUST ENOUGH COLD AIR WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY AND
TONIGHT FOR THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT
REGION OF THE MID-ATLANTIC...MAINLY WEST OF I-95...FOR PCPN TO
FALL PREDOMINANTLY AS SNOW. THIS WOULD INCLUDE MUCH OF CNTRL/ERN
WV...NRN VA AND CNTRL/WRN MD AND EXTENDING NEWD WITH TIME TODAY
ACRS SRN/ERN PA AND NJ AND EVENTUALLY INTO SRN/ERN NEW ENGLAND
TONIGHT AND THU. GENERALLY A COLD RAIN IS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE TO
THE EAST AND SOUTH...WITH A NARROW TRANSITION OF A MIX OF RAIN AND
SNOW AND POSSIBLY SOME VERY SPOTTY POCKETS OF SLEET/FREEZING RAIN
LOCALLY. 

THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL ACCUMS THOUGH ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR IN ASSOC
WITH THE STG DEFORMATION ZONE/COMMA-HEAD ASSOC WITH THIS SYS. THIS
FEATURE WILL BE EXITING THE TN VLY THIS MORNING AND ALLOW A BAND
OF HVY WET SNOW LOCALLY ACRS THIS REGION TO MOVE INTO THE CNTRL
AND SRN APPALACHIANS. THE COMMA-HEAD WILL THEN CROSS THE CNTRL
APPALACHIANS AND CNTRL MID-ATL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVE AND ALLOW
FOR ANY MIXED PCPN/RAIN TO CHANGE TO ALL SNOW...INCLUDING AREAS
ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR...RESULTING IN AT LEAST A
SEVERAL HR PD OF HVY SNOWFALL HERE GIVEN THE STG DYNAMIC
COOLING/FORCING OF THE LAYER. IN FACT...THE GUIDANCE SHOWS VERY
STG MID LVL LAPSE RATES/INSTABILITY COINCIDING WITH THE ARRIVAL OF
THE COMMA-HEAD...AND THIS COUPLED WITH DEEP LYR FRONTOGENESIS WILL
SUPPORT A LIKELIHOOD OF CONVECTIVE SNOWFALL AND POSSIBLY SOME
INTENSE BANDING OF THE SNOWFALL PATTERN...YIELDING LOCALLY VERY
HVY SNOWFALL RATES AS THE ENERGY CROSSES THE REGION THIS EVENING.
RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE MDL GUIDANCE ON THIS...AND THE MDLS
TAKE THIS ENERGY NEWD UP INTO COASTAL NEW ENGLAND THU...WITH THE
SYS THEN QUICKLY EXITING BY LATE THU. GIVEN ALL OF THIS...HPC
SUGGESTS A CORE SWATH OF 6 TO 10 INCHES ALONG AND WEST OF
I-95...WITH LESSER AMTS IN A TIGHT GRADIENT JUST TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST. LOCALLY HEAVIER SNOW IS POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF THE CNTRL
APPALACHIANS DUE TO OROGRAPHICS/UPSLOPE...AND ALSO INTO PARTS OF
COASTAL NEW ENGLAND WHERE SOME ADDITIONAL ATLANTIC MSTR FETCH MAY
LOCALLY ENHANCE TOTALS.

...UPPER MIDWEST SEWD INTO THE GRT LAKES AND UPR OH VLY/CNTRL
APPALACHIANS...

TWO FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED CLIPPER-TYPE SHRTWVS AND ASSOC AREAS OF
LOW PRESSURE EMBEDDED WITHIN STG DEEPER LAYER NWLY FLOW WILL DIVE
SEWD ACRS THE REGION...YIELDING TWO ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF ACCUM
SNOWFALL. THE FIRST SYS WILL CROSS THE GRT LAKES AND UPR OH VLY
REGION THU AND THU NIGHT...AND SHOULD YIELD A SWATH OF LGT WARM
ADVECTION SNOWFALL. ONLY EXPECTING UP TO A COUPLE OF INCHES HERE
WITH THIS...WITH A POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVIER AMTS ACRS SWRN
LWR MI NEAR THE SHORE WITH LAKE MICHIGAN. THE SECOND SYS WILL BE A
BIT STRONGER AND WILL ARRIVE BY FRI ACRS THE UPR MIDWEST AND
QUICKLY STREAK SEWD DOWN OVER THE GRT LAKES REGION BY FRI
NIGHT/EARLY SAT. THIS SECOND SYS SHOULD PRODUCE A SWATH OF SEVERAL
INCHES OF SNOW...AND SHOULD ULTIMATELY ADVANCE AS FAR SOUTHEAST AS
SWRN NY/WRN PA AND POSSIBLY NRN WV BY SAT MORNING. A LOW TO MDT
RISK OF 4 INCHES IS INDICATED LOCALLY WITH THIS SYS.

THE PROBABILITY OF SIGNIFICANT ICING IS LESS THAN 10 PERCENT.

ORRISON 

[ROLLTIDE]

[ROLLTIDE]

3 to 4 inches fell around Franklin TN where I was going to go :) Still glad that I saved my gas for the FEB 2nd-3rd storm

[Xanadu]

noooooooo! I'm going to click my heels and wish for the snow in early Feb to come sooner than the 2nd or later than the 8th. That always works, right?