Deep South Ice Storm this week 2/3/11-2/04/11

[ROLLTIDE]

[Joe-Nathan]

FROM SHREVEPORT NWS:

...THE NEXT PART OF THE FORECAST INVOLVES THE INFLUX OF WINTER
WEATHER INTO THE FORECAST. HAVE BASED MY FCST GRIDS PRIMARILY ON
MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS...WHICH SUPPORTS A QUICK TRANSITION TO
LIGHT SNOW BEHIND THE FRONT DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. DEEPER
MOISTURE IS MOVING OUT AS THE SOUNDING COOLS SIGNIFICANTLY ENOUGH
SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH IF ANY ACCUMULATION ACROSS A MAJORITY OF THE
REGION TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. WHERE WE COULD SEE SOME SLIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE ACROSS OUR EXTREME NORTHWEST ZONES...MAINLY
NORTH OF THE I-30 CORRIDOR DURING THE DAY TUESDAY INTO EARLY
TUESDAY EVENING. HAVE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS APPROACHING 1 INCH ACROSS
THESE AREAS AND WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT MAKE FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS IF
NECESSARY. STILL LOOKING LIKE THE HEAVIER SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE NORTH OF OUR REGION FOR TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
EXPECTING A SHARP TEMPERATURE FALL OF SOME 20 TO 30 DEGREES DURING
THE DAY TUESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT WHICH WILL SUPPORT THE TRANSITION
TO WINTER PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOME LOCATIONS IF THERE IS ENOUGH
MOISTURE SUPPORT. ALONG WITH THE MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL
COME VERY STRONG WIND GUSTS BEHIND THE FRONT. WIND GUSTS TO NEAR
40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY EVENING MAKING TEMPERATURES FEEL EVEN COLDER. WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA WILL LIKELY BE MET ON TUESDAY WITH WIND CHILL
ADVISORY OR WARNING CRITERIA BEING MET TUESDAY NIGHT. WILL
HIGHLIGHT ALL THESE POSSIBILITIES IN THE MORNING HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK BUT WILL NOT POST ANY WATCHES OR ADVISORIES ATTM WITH THE
BRUNT OF THIS WEATHER NOT OCCURRING UNTIL OUR 3RD PERIOD OF THE
FORECAST. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR OUR EXTREME
NW ZONES AND IF SO...THIS WOULD BE POSTED LATER TODAY.

1040MB HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY
WITH A VERY COLD REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. HARD FREEZE WARNINGS
WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS WELL AS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH TEENS LIKELY...AT LEAST
ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES AND PERHAPS AS FAR SOUTH AS THE I-20
CORRIDOR.

FINALLY...THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SWINGS OUT OF
WEST TEXAS THURSDAY AND MOVES INTO OUR REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT LOW END CHANCE SNOW POPS FOR LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND THUS...HAVE ADDED THIS TO THE GRIDS
AS WELL...

[Joe-Nathan]

GFS FOR THURS NIGHT/FRI MORNING FEB 4th:

[ROLLTIDE]

...

Saturday Wintry Mischief?

Bill Murray | 2:24 pm January 30, 2011 | Comments (26)
The morning run of the GFS introduced a new idea: a very cold trough sweeping across Mississippi and Alabama on Saturday, accompanied by the potential for a wintry mix.
This is the output for the GFS snow depth product by Saturday night.

Here is the culprit:

This is the precipitation and 540 thickness line, a useful rule of thumb for the rain/snow line (the blue dotted line).

This idea is voodoo for now, but something that we will be watching

[ROLLTIDE]

[Xanadu]

oh no! I thought all of that mess was going to stay north of us. We will see, I suppose. Thanks for the heads up!

[dkmac]

NWS forecast for Whitfield County, GA

Friday Night...Mostly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of rain and snow. Lows in the upper 20s.

But that's 4 days away, and things can change...

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick....x=94&map.y=27

[HoumaLA_WXguy]

From wwltv mets.. (NOLA)

For the end of the week, as colder air remains in place, we'll have to watch a Gulf Low that looks slated to develop and bring in moisture again for Thursday and Friday. Right now, it's looking like mainly just a cold rain, but if cold air moves farther south than currently forecast, things could be a bit more interesting in terms of precipitation type. This is still a long way off and there's plenty of time to watch things develop, but its looking like a close-call at this point.

[Joe-Nathan]

SHREVEPORT NWS:

Today: Rain showers before noon, then rain showers, possibly mixed with snow and sleet between noon and 3pm, then a chance of snow and sleet after 3pm. The rain could be heavy at times. Some thunder is also possible. Temperature falling to around 36 by 5pm. South wind 10 to 15 mph becoming west between 20 and 25 mph. Winds could gust as high as 35 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Little or no snow accumulation expected.

Tonight: A 20 percent chance of snow before 9pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 20. Wind chill values as low as 11. Northwest wind between 15 and 25 mph, with gusts as high as 35 mph.

[kobayashi]

It's not just the south...

[Joe-Nathan]

THAT IS ONE HELL OF A TEMP DROP:

[ROLLTIDE]

Jackson MS

MOVING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THURSDAY NIGHT...THINGS WILL GET A
LITTLE TRICKIER. PRECIPITATION WILL OVERSPREAD MOST OF THE CWA BY
THIS POINT. LOCATIONS ACROSS THE NORTH...ALONG HWY 82 AND JUST ON
EITHER SIDE OF IT...SHOULD MOSTLY SEE ALL SNOW AS TEMPERATURES ALOFT
WILL BE COLD ENOUGH THROUGH THE COLUMN TO SUPPORT ALL SNOW. FURTHER
SOUTH...THE WINTRY MIX WILL BEGIN WITH CHANCES FOR RAIN...FREEZING
RAIN...OR SLEET AS BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME
OPPORTUNITY FOR MELTING OF ICE ALOFT. THERE IS NOT A REALLY WARM
TONGUE OF WARMER AIR...BUT THE LAYER OF ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES
IS QUITE LARGE AND MOST ICE SHOULD BE ABLE TO MELT. CLOSER TO THE
SFC...THERE MAY BE ENOUGH OF A LAYER FOR SOME REFREEZING INTO SLEET.
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL FALL TO OR BELOW FREEZING AND ANY LIQUID
THAT DOES NOT REFREEZE ALOFT WILL LIKELY HAVE THE OPPORTUNITY TO
FREEZE ON THE SFC. THE HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD OF WINTER PRECIP AT THIS
TIME IS SOUTH OF I-20. THE HIGHEST MOISTURE WILL BE LOCATED IN THIS
REGION...BUT THIS IS ALSO WHERE SOME OF THE TRICKIER SFC FORECASTED
TEMPERATURES LIE...SO IT WILL LIKELY COME DOWN TO JUST ONE OR TWO
DEGREE DIFFERENCES DURING THE EVENT TO DETERMINE WHAT SORT OF
WEATHER WILL OCCUR.

FOR FRIDAY...THIS WINTRY MIX SHOULD LAST INTO THE MID MORNING HOURS
BEFORE TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE A CHANCE TO WARM SOME. THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL NOW SHIFT MORE ACROSS AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THE NATCHEZ TRACE. WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE
UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S...ALL PRECIPITATION SHOULD FALL AS RAIN. BY
FRIDAY EVENING...THE BULK OF THE RAIN WILL HAVE MOVED OFF AS THE SFC
LOW TRACKS EAST ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO SWING OVER THE AREA. AS THIS OCCURS...COLDER
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION AND SOME OF THE RAIN
MAY MIX WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW. LINGERING MOISTURE OVERNIGHT WILL
COMBINE WITH THIS COLDER AIR AND GIVE THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF
LIGHT SNOW THROUGH THE NIGHT...TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST.

ALL MOISTURE SHOULD BE OUT OF THE REGION BY MID TO LATE MORNING
SATURDAY. SKIES WILL CLEAR AND TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE.
THIS WILL BE ATTRIBUTED TO A SFC HIGH SLIDING JUST TO OUR SOUTH
BRINGING SOME WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. HIGHS ON SATURDAY
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

[ROLLTIDE]

It's not just the south...

Then feel free to start a new thread and keep it properly updated. I will not have the time since I will be on the road :)

[Joe-Nathan]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
819 AM CST TUE FEB 1 2011

DISCUSSION
UPDATED THE GRIDS TO RAISE POPS AND SHOW FALLING
TEMPERATURES IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. ALSO WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED
A WIND CHILL ADVISORY TONIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA WHERE WIND CHILLS ARE FORECAST TO DROP BELOW 13
DEGREES.

BRAZZELL

[Joe-Nathan]

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1035 AM CST TUE FEB 01 2011

.TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON  
   
.DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.  
  
            ..REMARKS..  
  
1034 AM     FREEZING RAIN    BATTIEST                34.40N 94.93W   
02/01/2011  E0.25 INCH       MCCURTAIN          OK   CO-OP OBSERVER    
  
            CO-OP OBSERVER REPORTS GLAZING OF 1/4 INCH ICE ON   
            SURFACES AND A DUSTING OF SLEET ON TOP. 

[Joe-Nathan]

MAN I AM LIKING THE 72HR GFS:

[Joe-Nathan]

AND I AM LOVING THE 75HR NAM:

[Joe-Nathan]

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1028 AM CST TUE FEB 01 2011

.TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON  
   
.DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.  
  
            ..REMARKS..  
  
1020 AM     FREEZING RAIN    HARRISON                36.24N 93.12W   
02/01/2011  E0.50 INCH       BOONE              AR   CO-OP OBSERVER    
  
            OBSERVER REPORTED .50 TO .75 INCHES OF ICE ON TREES AND   
            CARS. ROADS HAVE STARTED TO BECOME ICE COVERED. 

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1208 PM CST TUE FEB 01 2011

.TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON  
   
.DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.  
  
            ..REMARKS..  
  
1152 AM     SNOW             1 E OWASSO              36.27N 95.84W   
02/01/2011  M13.0 INCH       TULSA              OK   STORM CHASER      
  
            AT 86TH AND 145TH. 

[Joe-Nathan]

Houston is even getting in on the Snow/Ice action:

An upper level disturbance is expected to move over the area Friday and support frozen precipitation. Given the cold temperatures in place... most areas could have accumulating snow mainly inland. There may be a mix of rain/sleet/snow along the coast. Please monitor forecasts on this developing winter weather event.

[Joe-Nathan]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
335 PM CST TUE FEB 1 2011

...BITTERLY COLD ARCTIC AIR SPILLING INTO THE REGION THIS  
AFTERNOON...  
   
DISCUSSION  
   
SHORT TERM  
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO PERSIST   
INTO TONIGHT. SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER IS FORECAST...MAINLY   
ACROSS THE NORTH TONIGHT...EVEN WITH THE WINDS REMAINING ELEVATED   
THROUGH THE NIGHT...THIS LOOKS TO BE THE COLDEST NIGHT. TEMPERATURES   
FALLING INTO THE LOW TO MIDDLE 20S MOST OF THE AREA WITH THE   
EXCEPTION OF THE MORGAN CITY AREA. SO HARD FREEZE WARNINGS WERE   
EXPANDED ACCORDINGLY. IN ADDITION WIND CHILLS TOMORROW MORNING   
AROUND 10 DEGREES...SO WIND CHILL ADVISORY ALSO ISSUED.    
  
SOME SUN TOMORROW SHOULD ALLOW FOR A REBOUND INTO THE UPPER 30S TO   
LOWER 40S.  
  
THINGS BEGIN TO GET INTERESTING THURSDAY MORNING INTO FRIDAY. FIRST   
OFF NOT TOO CONCERNED ABOUT THURSDAY AT THIS TIME. RAIN CHANCES WILL   
BE INCREASING THROUGHOUT THE DAY THURSDAY AND IF RAIN STARTS EARLY   
ENOUGH ON THURSDAY...THIS WOULD LIKELY BE IN THE FORM OF FREEZING   
RAIN AND SLEET. BULK OF THE ACTIVITY WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL THE   
AFTERNOON WHEN BUFKIT SOUNDINGS FORECAST THE TEMPERATURES WILL BE   
WARM ENOUGH THROUGH A DEEP LAYER TO SUPPORT MELTING TO MAJORITY RAIN   
BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND.   
  
MOST OF MY CONCERN IS IN THE THURSDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY TIME FRAME   
WHEN PRECIPITATION SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION. IN   
ADDITION PROFILES CONTINUE TO COOL SUPPORT A CHANGE TO SNOW AND   
SLEET ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. ACROSS THE   
SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...SOUNDING PROFILES ARE   
SUPPORTING A MIXTURE OF FREEZING RAIN...SLEET IN THE MORNING   
BECOMING MOSTLY RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO COME IN   
A LITTLE MORE COOL AND WET WITH EACH RUN. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY BOTH   
THE GFS AND ECMWF. THE BIGGEST DIFFERENCES ARE IN THE HIGHEST QPF   
PLACEMENT.  THIS IS AN EVOLVING SITUATION...SO STAY TUNED TO THE   
LATEST FORECASTS FOR ADDITIONAL CHANGES.   
  
ANOTHER SHOT AT FREEZING PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP ON FRIDAY NIGHT  
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO START OUT IN  
THE 20S WITH THE START OF A WARM-UP DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY.  
AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL MOVE INTO THE LOWER 50S. THE WARM-UP WILL  
CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY WITH THE FIRST MORNING THAT WILL BE ABOVE  
FREEZING... TEMPERATURES THAT AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S  
TO NEAR THE 60 DEGREE MARK.