Deep South Ice Storm this week 2/3/11-2/04/11

[ROLLTIDE]

WHAT IS THAT NEAR MOBILE ON THURSDAY:

I would bet it's just a cold rain :(

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SE TEXAS

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HPC going with a moderate risk for ICE

[Joe-Nathan]

FROM KATC TV3:

PLEASE NOTE THE REFERENCE TO THE JAN 97 ICE STORM WE HAD!!!!

Winter Precip Possible

Posted: Feb 2, 2011 8:04 AM by Dave Baker
Updated: Feb 2, 2011 8:21 AM

A winter storm may be forming to our west and could bring a mix of rain, freezing rain, and sleet to Acadiana starting Thursday evening. At this point, Acadiana appears to be divided right down the middle between liquid and frozen precip. A line drawn from Natchez, through Lafayette, to Cameron may be the likely area where the change occurs. Southeast of that line should be mostly rain. Areas northwest of the line may be freezing rain. In Texas, sleet and snow may be the issue.

Determining what kind of precip is hard enough, secondly, the amount of precip coming has to be addressed. Models are predicting a significant amount of moisture with the heaviest totals forecast to be in areas that will stay above 32 degrees. Where the freezing rain is expected, moderate amounts are forecast. If this situation pans out, parts of Acadiana could see accumulating ice on bridges, overpasses, trees, and power lines.

A similar system rolled across the area in January 1997. We had a decent glazing here in Acadiana which made trees sparkle, but the ice accumulation was devastating from Beaumont to Lake Charles. Trees snapped, powerlines dropped, and most of southwest Louisiana was in the dark for days. The 1997 ice storm caused millions of dollars in damage

[ROLLTIDE]

I am hearing that Winter Storm watches will be issued later today for SE Texas with an upgrade to warnings tomorrow morning

[Joe-Nathan]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1137 AM CST WED FEB 2 2011

UPDATE

WE WILL ISSUING A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR A POTENTIAL ICING
EVENT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT AND TOMORROW

[Joe-Nathan]

FOUND A NEW TOOL:

>1" of snow prob for Friday:

[Joe-Nathan]

ICING ACCU of >/=0.01" for THURS-SAT:

ICING THURSDAY:



ICING FRIDAY:



ICING SATURDAY:

[ROLLTIDE]

N.O WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY POSSIBLE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1200 PM CST WED FEB 2 2011

LAZ034>040-046>050-056>070-MSZ068>071-077-080>082-022000-
POINTE COUPEE-WEST FELICIANA-EAST FELICIANA-ST. HELENA-TANGIPAHOA-
WASHINGTON-ST. TAMMANY-IBERVILLE-WEST BATON ROUGE-
EAST BATON ROUGE-ASCENSION-LIVINGSTON-ASSUMPTION-ST. JAMES-
ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST-UPPER LAFOURCHE-ST. CHARLES-UPPER JEFFERSON-
ORLEANS-UPPER PLAQUEMINES-UPPER ST. BERNARD-UPPER TERREBONNE-
LOWER TERREBONNE-LOWER LAFOURCHE-LOWER JEFFERSON-
LOWER PLAQUEMINES-LOWER ST. BERNARD-WILKINSON-AMITE-PIKE-WALTHALL-
PEARL RIVER-HAN****-HARRISON-JACKSON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEW ROADS...LIVONIA...
ST. FRANCISVILLE...JACKSON...CLINTON...GREENSBURG...MO NTPELIER...
HAMMOND...PONCHATOULA...BOGALUSA...FRANKLINTON...S LIDELL...
MANDEVILLE...COVINGTON...LACOMBE...PLAQUEMINE...WH ITE CASTLE...
PORT ALLEN...ADDIS...BRUSLY...BATON ROUGE...GONZALES...
DONALDSONVILLE...DENHAM SPRINGS...WALKER...PIERRE PART...
LABADIEVILLE...PAINCOURTVILLE...LUTCHER...GRAMERCY ...LAPLACE...
RESERVE...THIBODAUX...RACELAND...LAROSE...DESTREHA N...NORCO...
METAIRIE...KENNER...NEW ORLEANS...BELLE CHASSE...CHALMETTE...
VIOLET...HOUMA...BAYOU CANE...CHAUVIN...DULAC...MONTEGUT...
GALLIANO...CUT OFF...GOLDEN MEADOW...PORT SULPHUR...EMPIRE...
YSCLOSKEY...CENTREVILLE...WOODVILLE...GLOSTER...LI BERTY...
CROSBY...MCCOMB...TYLERTOWN...PICAYUNE...BAY ST. LOUIS...
WAVELAND...DIAMONDHEAD...GULFPORT...BILOXI...PASCA GOULA...
OCEAN SPRINGS...MOSS POINT...GAUTIER...ST. MARTIN
1200 PM CST WED FEB 2 2011

...WINTRY WEATHER EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI BEGINNING TONIGHT...

A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...COMBINED
WITH A COLD AIRMASS CURRENTLY OVER THE REGION...IS EXPECTED TO
LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF WINTRY WEATHER ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI BEGINNING TONIGHT AND
LASTING THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT.

LIGHT SLEET COULD DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHSHORE
...RIVER PARISHES...AND THE MISSISSIPPI GULF COAST. ACCUMULATION
OF SLEET IN THIS AREA IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO
IMPACT TRAVEL. FARTHER TO THE NORTH AND WEST...OVER THE
NORTHSHORE...BATON ROUGE METRO...AND SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...A MIX
OF LIGHT SLEET AND LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT. ANY ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT...BUT TRAVEL COULD BE
IMPACTED...ESPECIALLY ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES.

FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A LARGER IMPACT FOR
THE BATON ROUGE METRO...SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...AND NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHSHORE BY LATE TOMORROW MORNING. THIS WINTER
WEATHER EVENT SHOULD PERSIST INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...AND WILL
POTENTIALLY CREATE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS ACROSS THESE
AREAS. ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS MAY OCCUR BY THE END OF THE EVENT.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES AND WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR
PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATER TODAY.

$$

[ROLLTIDE]

Please check in and tell us what your local mets are saying

[dkmac]

Sleet or snow or graupon here right now in Covington.

[Joe-Nathan]

Dam Mac, you need to oil your hands.

They looking kinda wrinkled

[dkmac]

Figures! I go back out to see if I can get more of the crystals in the picture, and it's stopped. I have an inexpensive Nikon Coolpix camera and forgot to bring my reading glasses to check the pictures, and didn't get to see the picture until after I D/Led it to the PC. The radar at WU is showing frozen precip streaming towards us from the SW, so I'm sure we'll get to see some more.

[dkmac]

Dam Mac, you need to oil your hands.

They looking kinda wrinkled

Bwhahahaha! That's the tonneau cover on the bed of my Silverado.

[Joe-Nathan]

S. LA School Closures:

All Lafayette Parish public schools are closed tomorrow due to severe weather.

PUBLIC SCHOOLS:
Lafayette Parish - Closed Thursday

Acadia - NOT CLOSED
Evangeline - NOT CLOSED
Iberia - No decision yet
Jeff Davis - No decision yet
St. Landry Parish - No decision yet
St. Mary - No decision yet
Vermillion - No decision yet


LAFAYETTE PRIVATE SCHOOLS:
Ascension Episc**** School(All 3 Campuses)
St. Thomas More Catholic High School- Closed Thursday
Our Lady of Fatima - Closed Thursday
St. Cecilia Broussard - Thursday
Lafayette Lutheran School - Closed Thursday
Lafayette Christian Academy - Thursday
St. Mary Early Learning Center - Thursday
First Baptist Lafayette Mother's Day Out- Thursday
Covenant Preschool - Thursday

Carencro Catholic - Thursday

[ROLLTIDE]

[ROLLTIDE]

Winter Storm Watch for parts of Texas already

Winter Storm Watch

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1201 PM CST WED FEB 2 2011

TXZ230>234-240>247-030200-
/O.NEW.KCRP.WS.A.0001.110203T1800Z-110204T1800Z/
MCMULLEN-LIVE OAK-BEE-GOLIAD-VICTORIA-DUVAL-JIM WELLS-KLEBERG-
NUECES-SAN PATRICIO-ARANSAS-REFUGIO-CALHOUN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CALLIHAM...CROSS...LOMA ALTA...TILDEN...
GEORGE WEST...THREE RIVERS...BEEVILLE...GOLIAD...VICTORIA...
FREER...BENAVIDES...SAN DIEGO...ALICE...ORANGE GROVE...
KINGSVILLE...CORPUS CHRISTI...PORTLAND...INGLESIDE...
ARANSAS PASS...SINTON...MATHIS...ROCKPORT...REFUGIO...WOOD SBORO...
PORT LAVACA
1201 PM CST WED FEB 2 2011

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING...
...DANGEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CORPUS CHRISTI HAS ISSUED A
WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

A POTENT UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS TEXAS THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY...PRODUCING A MIX OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM
OF FREEZING RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW.

FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET WILL BEGIN ALONG THE COAST AROUND NOON ON
THURSDAY. THE FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS
THE COASTAL BEND DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND WEST INTO THE BRUSH
COUNTRY BY 6 PM. FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH
OF SOUTH TEXAS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...MAKING TRAVEL
EXTREMELY HAZARDOUS. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL NORTH AND WEST OF
HIGHWAY 77 THAT THE FREEZING RAIN WILL CHANCE OVER TO SNOW AND
SLEET THURSDAY NIGHT.

SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS OF ICE AND SLEET ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
COASTAL COUNTIES...GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 77. BETWEEN
1/4 AND 1/2 OF AN INCH OF ICE AND SLEET ACCUMULATION WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THIS AREA. FURTHER INLAND...WEST OF HIGHWAY 77...
SLEET AND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE LIKELY.
RESIDENTS OF SOUTH TEXAS SHOULD PREPARE FOR DANGEROUS TRAVEL
CONDITIONS THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
HAZARDOUS WINTER WEATHER TO DEVELOP WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 48
HOURS. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY THAT EXISTS WITH THIS
UPCOMING EVENT. RESIDENTS ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO ACT QUICKLY IF A
WARNING IS ISSUED.

$$

[ROLLTIDE]

winter weather advisory for MOBILE just issued