4/11/11 Deep South Severe threat

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Updated: Mon Apr 11 12:31:45 UTC 2011 (Print Version)

Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table

Categorical Tornado (more info) Hail (more info) Wind (more info)

Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point. Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.

Forecast Discussion

SPC AC 111228

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0728 AM CDT MON APR 11 2011

VALID 111300Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO
NY/PA AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...

MORNING SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW AN IMPRESSIVE UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ROTATING ACROSS TX. THIS FEATURE WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD AND
AFFECT THE GULF COAST AND TN/OH VALLEY REGIONS TODAY. A REMNANT
LINE OF CONVECTION CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN AR INTO WESTERN
KY AND NORTHEASTWARD INTO OH. THIS BAND OF STORMS WILL LIKELY
PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY...WITH GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION EXPECTED BY
EARLY AFTERNOON AS DAYTIME HEATING AND CONTINUED INFLUX OF MOISTURE
OCCURS. THE RESULT WILL LIKELY BE A RATHER LARGE AREA OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL TODAY FROM NY/PA SOUTHWARD INTO TN/MS/AL.

...PORTIONS OF TN/OH AND LOWER MS VALLEY...
ALL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT ONGOING CONVECTIVE LINE
WILL ONLY SLOWLY INTENSIFY THIS MORNING DUE TO WARM MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES SHOWN ON 12Z BMX/JAN/BNA RAOBS. HOWEVER...APPROACH OF
UPPER TROUGH AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL ERODE CAP AND LEAD TO SEVERE
STORMS BY EARLY AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED OVER
KY/TN BY MID AFTERNOON...WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL VERTICAL SHEAR
OVER THE WARM SECTOR. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST 0-3KM SRH VALUES
EXCEEDING 300 M2/S2...BUT ALSO SHOW A CONTINUED MID LEVEL INVERSION
WHICH MAY LIMIT UPDRAFT STRENGTH. FOR THIS REASON...HAVE NOT
UPGRADED TO MODERATE RISK AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...AN UPGRADE MAY
OCCUR LATER TODAY IF CONCERNS REGARDING THERMODYNAMICS ARE LESSENED.
REGARDLESS...POTENTIAL FOR A FEW TORNADOES AND CONSIDERABLE WIND
DAMAGE REMAINS FROM NORTHEAST MS INTO MUCH OF MIDDLE TN/AL AND
SOUTHERN KY. STORMS MAY AFFECT PORTIONS OF NORTH GA TONIGHT BEFORE
DIMINISHING.

...NY/PA INTO CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT A RATHER POTENT ENVIRONMENT WILL
DEVELOP LATER TODAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT FROM SOUTHERN NY AND
MUCH OF PA INTO WV/VA. STRONG DAYTIME HEATING AND DEWPOINTS IN THE
LOWER 60S WILL YIELD AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES OF AROUND 1000 J/KG.
RATHER STRONG DEEP LAYER EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL ALSO BE PRESENT AS
80-100 KT MID LEVEL JET OVERSPREADS THE REGION. CURRENT INDICATIONS
ARE THAT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP BY MID AFTERNOON OVER
PORTIONS OF NY/PA INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND SPREAD QUICKLY
EASTWARD. ONSHORE FLOW AND ASSOCIATED MORE STABLE AIR MASS WILL
LIMIT EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF STORMS TO THE COAST. HOWEVER...IT
APPEARS POSSIBLE THAT A RATHER CONCENTRATED AREA OF DAMAGING WINDS
AND ISOLATED TORNADOES MAY OCCUR TODAY OVER THIS REGION.

..HART/GARNER.. 04/11/2011

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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 1234Z (7:34AM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME

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Mesoscale Discussion 409

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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0409 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0858 AM CDT MON APR 11 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN AND CENTRAL KY....WRN AND MIDDLE TN...NRN MS...AND SERN AR CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY VALID 111358Z - 111500Z A TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THIS MORNING ACROSS WRN/CENTRAL KY SWWD THROUGH WRN-MIDDLE TN TO NRN MS/SERN AR. AT 1340Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY/LIGHTNING DATA SHOWED TSTMS EXTENDING FROM FAR SWRN KY SWWD TO THE ARKLATEX REGION. A LONG-LIVED MCV ATTENDANT TO AN OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WAS SUPPORTING THE NERN EXTENT OF ACTIVITY...CURRENTLY MOVING INTO FAR WRN TN/FAR SWRN KY. 40-50 KT SWLY LLJ PARALLEL TO AND LOCATED JUST AHEAD OF THIS ACTIVITY COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR /0-1 KM SRH 400 M2 PER S2/ AS NOTED ON AREA WSR-88D VWPS ARE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES ALONG WITH DAMAGING WINDS. OBJECTIVE ANALYSES INDICATED AIR MASS IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM IS MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AND LIKELY PRECLUDING A GREATER COVERAGE OF STRONGER TO SEVERE STORMS AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...12Z LIT SOUNDING IS LIKELY MOST REPRESENTATIVE OF THE ENVIRONMENT INVOF THE ONGOING TSTMS...WHICH GIVEN THE THERMODYNAMICS AND KINEMATICS SUPPORTS BOTH A TORNADO AND DAMAGING WIND THREAT GIVEN ALMOST NON-EXISTENT INHIBITION. SWLY LOW LEVEL WINDS ADVECTING 60S SURFACE DEWPOINTS NEWD IN ADVANCE OF A COMPOSITE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...WHICH EXTENDED FROM SRN OH TO FAR WRN KY INTO ERN AR...COMBINED WITH DIABATIC HEATING FILTERED THROUGH HIGHER CLOUDS WILL AID IN DOWNSTREAM DESTABILIZATION. THIS COMBINED WITH STRONGER HEIGHT FALLS SPREADING INTO THE MID SOUTH AND TN/OH VALLEYS AND STRONG WIND FIELDS SUGGESTS A TORNADO WATCH WILL BE NEEDED THIS MORNING. ..PETERS.. 04/11/2011 ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX...BMX...HUN...P AH...MEG... JAN... LAT...LON 33739081 34689015 35418938 36498807 37618650 38148531 38358414 37588381 35188555 33438745 33358955 33739081

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Mesoscale Discussion 410

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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0410 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0946 AM CDT MON APR 11 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SRN-SERN AR....FAR NRN LA AND CENTRAL/NRN MS CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY VALID 111446Z - 111515Z A TORNADO WATCH WILL BE NEEDED SOON FOR PARTS OF SRN/SERN AR...FAR NRN LA INTO CENTRAL/NRN MS. THIS CONCERN IS ASSOCIATED WITH A RECENT INCREASE IN TSTM ACTIVITY OVER SWRN/SRN AR...WITH THE EVENTUAL TORNADO WATCH POTENTIALLY EXTENDING FARTHER NWD INTO TN/KY /REFER TO SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION #409/. MID MORNING OBJECTIVE ANALYSES INDICATED AN AREA OF SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS /2-4 MB PER 3 HRS/ EXTENDING FROM NRN LA INTO SRN AR AND CENTERED ON THE AR/LA BORDER. SURFACE WINDS OVER SERN AR/NERN LA INDICATED BACKING WINDS DURING THE LAST 1-2 HOURS IN RESPONSE TO THESE PRESSURE FALLS. THIS COMBINED WITH BACKING LOW LEVEL WINDS PER NRN LA WIND PROFILER ARE LIKELY IN RESPONSE TO HEIGHT FALLS SPREADING EWD AHEAD OF THE SRN PLAINS SHORTWAVE TROUGH. REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY AND COOLING CLOUD TOPS PER IR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED AN AREA OF EXPANDING TSTM COVERAGE OVER SRN AR WITH THIS ACTIVITY MOVING ENE AT 45-50 KT. AS COMPARED TO AREAS FARTHER N INTO TN/KY...GREATER MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE ACROSS THIS REGION WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S. THIS COMBINED WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SUPPORTING STRONG DIABATIC HEATING WILL SUPPORT MODERATE INSTABILITY BY EARLY AFTERNOON. STRONG WIND FIELDS AND HEIGHT FALLS SPREADING EWD TODAY WILL SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN TSTM DEVELOPMENT WITH A TORNADO AND DAMAGING WIND THREAT EXPECTED...WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED BACKED LOW LEVEL WINDS FAVORING THE FORMER THREAT. ..PETERS.. 04/11/2011 ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...

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New watch just issued

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Public (Test) | Counties | Probabilities | Aviation | Warnings | Initial RADAR

Hazard Tornadoes EF2+ Tornadoes Likelihood Moderate Low Severe Wind 65 kt+ Wind High Moderate Severe Hail 2"+ Hail Moderate Moderate Note: The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is replaced, cancelled or extended. Note: Click for Watch Status Reports. SEL8 URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 128 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1030 AM CDT MON APR 11 2011 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF PARTS OF EASTERN ARKANSAS PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY MUCH OF NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI PARTS OF CENTRAL AND MIDDLE TENNESSEE EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 1030 AM UNTIL 500 PM CDT. TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 90 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MONTICELLO ARKANSAS TO 60 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF BOWLING GREEN KENTUCKY. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8). REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. DISCUSSION...STRONG S/WV TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED WIND FIELD ROTATING EWD ACROSS LWR MS VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON DEVELOPING A SURFACE WAVE ON FRONTAL ZONE SRN AR. STRONG HEATING WILL INCREASE INSTABILITY EWD AHEAD OF ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS THE WATCH. THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING ACROSS CENTRAL SRN AR WILL MOVE RAPIDLY NEWD AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW WITH AN ENHANCED WIND PROFILE SUPPORTING BOTH DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES THRU THE AFTERNOON. AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24040. ...HALES

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Moderate Risk

Mesoscale Discussion 411

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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0411 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1041 AM CDT MON APR 11 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN MS...NRN AL...MIDDLE TN AND PARTS OF SRN KY CONCERNING...OUTLOOK UPGRADE VALID 111541Z - 111645Z ...DAY 1 OUTLOOK UPGRADE TO A MODERATE RISK FOR PARTS OF THE MID SOUTH AND TN VALLEY... AN INCREASED THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS FROM PARTS OF THE MID SOUTH NEWD THROUGH MIDDLE TN TO PART OF SOUTH CENTRAL-SERN KY WARRANTS THE NEED FOR A MODERATE RISK. ADDITIONAL DETAILS INCLUDING A TORNADO THREAT WILL BE AVAILABLE WITH THE UPCOMING 1630Z DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK. ..PETERS.. 04/11/2011 ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX...BMX...HUN...M EG...JAN... LAT...LON 37508535 37338443 36598426 35078555 33768713 33098829 32928969 33029066 33569085 34159082 34549020 35508818 35968751 36508687 36998610 37508535

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Dr. Greg Forbes
MONDAY
Severe thunderstorms with damaging wind gusts and isolated tornadoes along and ahead of the cold front in VT, NY, west MA, north NJ, PA, west MD, northwest and southwest VA, WV, DC, southeast OH, central and east KY, middle and east TN, northwest GA, north and west AL, MS, southeast AR, LA. TORCON – 4 MS and AL areas, 4 KY and... TN areas, 4 east PA.

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Apr 11, 2011 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

Updated: Mon Apr 11 16:13:44 UTC 2011

Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table

Categorical Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic

SPC AC 111609

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1109 AM CDT MON APR 11 2011

VALID 111630Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY INTO TONIGHT OVER S-CNTRL
KY...MIDDLE TN INTO NRN PARTS OF MS/AL...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND CNTRL/ERN GULF
COAST STATES...

...WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND EVENT POSSIBLE TODAY INTO TONIGHT...

...KY/TN INTO LOWER MS VALLEY AND CNTRL GULF COAST STATES...

A FOCUSED CORRIDOR OF DCVA ASSOCIATED WITH VIGOROUS VORTICITY
MAXIMUM OVER THE SRN PLAINS COMBINED WITH A COUPLED UPPER-LEVEL JET
STRUCTURE WILL ENHANCE DEEP ASCENT ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.
DEEPENING SURFACE LOW ATTENDANT TO THE SRN PLAINS VORTICITY MAXIMUM
/ANALYZED OVER CNTRL AR AS OF 15Z/ WILL DEVELOP NEWD TO VICINITY OF
S-CNTRL KY OR NRN-MIDDLE TN BY LATE AFTERNOON...REACHING THE VA
PIEDMONT BY 12/12Z. TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE EWD/SEWD
THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND CNTRL GULF COAST STATES.

12Z REGIONAL SOUNDINGS ACROSS WARM SECTOR SHOWED THE PRESENCE OF
RATHER WARM MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES ALONG ANTICYCLONIC SIDE OF
MIDLEVEL JET CORE WHICH WERE RESULTING IN POOR LAPSE RATES.
HOWEVER...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY DOES SUGGEST THAT RELATIVELY
STRONG DIABATIC HEATING WILL OCCUR TODAY ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR.
WHEN COUPLED WITH COOLING MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES /IN ASSOCIATION WITH
12-HR HEIGHT FALLS OF 100-150 M AT 500 MB/...AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME WEAKLY TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE VALUES RANGING FROM
500-1000 J/KG OVER THE TN VALLEY TO 1000-1500 J/KG ALONG THE GULF
COAST.

LATEST CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN RATHER GOOD
AGREEMENT IN SUGGESTING THAT PRE-FRONTAL BAND OF TSTMS FROM S-CNTRL
KY INTO THE ARKLAMISS WILL ORGANIZE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE INCREASING
LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE
DESTABILIZING AIR MASS. GIVEN THE STRENGTHENING DEEP-LAYER WIND
FIELD AND TENDENCY FOR DEEPER BOUNDARY-LAYER MIXING WITHIN THE WARM
SECTOR...SETUP APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR A POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD
DAMAGING WIND EVENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TN AND LOWER MS VALLEYS
INTO CNTRL GULF COAST STATES TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND SE OF MIGRATORY SURFACE
LOW TRACK WHERE AN ISALLOBARICALLY BACKED WIND FIELD WILL ENHANCE
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR. A MORE SUBSTANTIAL TORNADO THREAT APPEARS TO BE
LIMITED BY THE ANTICIPATED LINEAR CONVECTIVE MODE AND THE
ABOVE-MENTIONED TENDENCY FOR DEEPER BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WHICH WILL
INCREASE T-TD SPREADS.

...LOWER GREAT LAKES INTO MID ATLANTIC STATES AND PORTIONS OF NEW
ENGLAND...

HIGHER-LATITUDE VORTICITY MAXIMUM OVER SWRN ONTARIO WILL TRANSLATE
ENEWD THROUGH CNTRL/SRN QUEBEC THIS PERIOD WITH REGION BEING GLANCED
BY MORE SUBSTANTIAL HEIGHT FALLS THROUGH THE PEAK OF THE DIURNAL
HEATING CYCLE. LATE MORNING SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS HAVE SUPPORTED SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARMING
THROUGH THE 70S AS FAR N AS THE LEE OF LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO. THIS
DIABATIC HEATING COUPLED WITH SOME BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENING WILL
YIELD AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES INCREASING TO 500-1500 J/KG.

LOW-LEVEL ASCENT ALONG SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT AND PRE-FRONTAL OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES IN CONJUNCTION WITH GLANCING INFLUENCE WITH
ABOVE-MENTIONED MIDLEVEL IMPULSE ARE EXPECTED TO FOSTER AN INCREASE
IN STORMS THIS AFTERNOON WITH UPSCALE GROWTH INTO MULTIPLE LINE
SEGMENTS LIKELY. GIVEN THE RELATIVELY STRONG WSWLY WIND FIELD
ALREADY IN PLACE AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY
LAYER...THE POTENTIAL FOR CORRIDORS OF WIND DAMAGE WILL EXIST INTO
TONIGHT ALONG WITH A RISK FOR A FEW TORNADOES.

..MEAD/STOPPKOTTE.. 04/11/2011

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z

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Public (Test) | Counties | Probabilities | Aviation | Warnings | Initial RADAR

Hazard Tornadoes EF2+ Tornadoes Likelihood Moderate Low Severe Wind 65 kt+ Wind High Moderate Severe Hail 2"+ Hail Moderate Low Note: The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is replaced, cancelled or extended. Note: Click for Watch Status Reports. SEL9 URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 129 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1250 PM EDT MON APR 11 2011 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF MUCH OF EASTERN KENTUCKY PARTS OF MARYLAND PANHANDLE PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OHIO PARTS OF WESTERN VIRGINIA MUCH OF WEST VIRGINIA EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 1250 PM UNTIL 700 PM EDT. TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 80 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF LONDON KENTUCKY TO 5 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF MORGANTOWN WEST VIRGINIA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9). REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 128... DISCUSSION...STRONG HEATING HAS DESTABILIZED AIR MASS ACROSS WATCH AREA AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. WITH 50-60KT OF SHEAR AND MUCAPES AOA 1000 J/KG...THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN NUMBER/INTENSITY EASTWARD ACROSS THE WATCH AREA. PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS...HOWEVER TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE ASSOCIATED WITH ANY SUPERCELL ABLE TO FORM. AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24035. ...HALES Hazard Tornadoes EF2+ Tornadoes Likelihood Moderate Low Severe Wind 65 kt+ Wind High Moderate Severe Hail 2"+ Hail Moderate Low Note: See the experimental Public Watch (SEL) product with explicit hazard information section below. The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is replaced, cancelled or extended. Note: Click for Watch Status Reports. SEL9 URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 129 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1250 PM EDT MON APR 11 2011 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF MUCH OF EASTERN KENTUCKY PARTS OF MARYLAND PANHANDLE PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OHIO PARTS OF WESTERN VIRGINIA MUCH OF WEST VIRGINIA EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 1250 PM UNTIL 700 PM EDT. SEVERAL TORNADOES SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS ISOLATED WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE SCATTERED LARGE HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 80 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF LONDON KENTUCKY TO 5 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF MORGANTOWN WEST VIRGINIA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9). REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 128... DISCUSSION...STRONG HEATING HAS DESTABILIZED AIR MASS ACROSS WATCH AREA AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. WITH 50-60KT OF SHEAR AND MUCAPES AOA 1000 J/KG...THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN NUMBER/INTENSITY EASTWARD ACROSS THE WATCH AREA. PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS...HOWEVER TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE ASSOCIATED WITH ANY SUPERCELL ABLE TO FORM. AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24035. ...HALES

[DirtAddsHP]

Do you expect the storm to hit Atlanta, GA? theres a wind advisory right now here, but thats all.

-Austin

[Joe-Nathan]

It looking like all we will get here in SW LA is a just a trace of rain.

Although the South winds have been blowing for three straight days now.

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Do you expect the storm to hit Atlanta, GA? theres a wind advisory right now here, but thats all.

-Austin

They should impact you after 7pm with the main threat being straight line winds. Are you going to chase ?

[Joe-Nathan]

TWC's Exclusive TOR:CON index
by Dr. Greg Forbes

Forecast for Mon Apr 11
east and southeast NY - 3 to 4
rest of NY - 2 to 3
VT - 3
west MA - 3
west CT - 3
east PA - 4
rest of PA - 3
north NJ - 3
south and east OH - 3
west MD - 3 to 4
north and southwest VA - 3
west half VA - 3 night
DC - 3
WV - 3
central and east KY - 4
TN - 4
north and west AL - 4
MS - 4
southeast AR - 3
LA - 3
west half NC - 3 night
northwest SC - 3 night
north, central, southwest GA - 3 night
FL panhandle - 3 night
other areas - 2 or less

Forecast for Mon Apr 11
east VA - 3
east MD - 3
DC - 3
south NJ - 2 to 3
DE - 3
east NC - 3
north and central FL peninsula - 3
other areas - 2 or less

Brief Synopsis:
The sun is out ahead of the cold front to help break the cap (warm inhibiting layer aloft) and a low-level jet will supply wind energy for damaging gusts and mainly non-supercell tornadoes. A wave of low pressure may form on the front and add a little rotation over KY and TN. A wave of low
pressure on the front may induce a tornado in part of the Mid-Atlantic if instability is sufficient on Tuesday.

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I will be streaming later trying to get the Imaptracker working

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LOCAL15 The Weather Authority
Derek here: Concerning the threat for severe weather later...not terribly impressed with what I'm seeing. The cap (warm layer a few thousand feet up) is very strong and will keep storms from developing through the day. Front arrives tonight before midnight and this combined with lift from the tail-end of an upper level trough should get storms going by dark. Best chances will be north of I-10.

[Alex]

Looking similar to last week's storm system. The south end of the front widdles down to a narrow squall line. The time frame map displayed above also looks like it will be in a similar time frame for NW Florida (around Midnight). We received less than a half inch of rain from the last passage, so any rain we get is welcome.