Historic MS River flooding forecasted once in a 100 year event

[ROLLTIDE]

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Civil Emergency Message


TNC157-021800-

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
CIVIL EMERGENCY MESSAGE
MEMPHIS SHELBY COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY
RELAYED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
935 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2011

THE FOLLOWING MESSAGE IS TRANSMITTED AT THE REQUEST OF THE
MEMPHIS SHELBY COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY.

FLOOD WARNING

ALL SHELBY RESIDENTS SHOULD TAKE PRECAUTION NOW...ESPECIALLY
IF YOU LIVE WITHIN THE 100 YEAR FLOOD PLAIN OF RIVERS AND
STREAMS...TO BE PREPARED TO EVACUATE HOMES AND BUSINESSES IF
FLOODING OCCURS.

NEAR RECORD FLOODING IS FORECAST ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AS IT
BORDERS SHELBY COUNTY.

A MESSAGE FROM THE SHELBY COUNTY MAYOR MARK H. LUTTRELL...THIS IS
THE TIME TO GATHER ALL IMPORTANT ITEMS AND BE READY TO LEAVE YOUR
PROPERTY. THERE IS A VERY REAL POSSIBILITY PORTIONS OF SHELBY
COUNTY COULD BE AFFECTED BY THE RISING WATERS.

A C WHARTON...THE MAYOR OF MEMPHIS ADDED...WE WANT TO REASSURE OUR
CITIZENS THAT DISASTER TEAMS ARE IN PLACE AND WILL BE DOING
EVERYTHING POSSIBLE TO KEEP EVERYONE SAFE.

SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN ARE PREDICTED DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
RIVERS AND CREEKS ARE QUICKLY RISING IN THE WESTERN AREA OF SHELBY
COUNTY AND WILL LIKELY BACK UP INTO NEIGHBORHOODS NEAR CREEKS AND
STREAMS. FLOOD WATERS MAY ALSO RISE INTO NEIGHBORHOODS THROUGH
STORM DRAINS. CONDITIONS MAY WORSEN EACH DAY WITH THE CONTINUAL
RISE OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

GO IMMEDIATELY TO HIGHER GROUND IF WATER STARTS TO RISE. AVOID
FLOOD WATERS.

$$

[ROLLTIDE]

[Joe-Nathan]

Here in LA we are already setting the stage to open up both the Morganza and Bonnie Carry spillways. Hopefully the three river structure will hold together. Would not be nice if the Miss destroyed it and took over the Atchafalaya River. Morgan City is on alert, of course they have been at flood stage for better part of the year.

This will be a true test of the Miss river levee system through out LA/Miss.

[ROLLTIDE]

Middle TN

[Joe-Nathan]

Atchafalaya communities bracing for flood


Add three zeros to the figures and you have the cubic feet per second expected in each segment of the central United States’ plumbing system during the “project flood,” approximating the levels seen during the Great Flood of 1927.


from TECHE NEWS

http://www.techetoday.com/view/full_...es_left_column

Morgan City and Berwick are bracing for flood conditions as gathering snow melt and spring deluges swell the Mississippi River.

The Daily Review reported last week that state and federal officials have admitted the possibility of opening both the Bonnet Carre Spillway and Morganza Floodway, something that hasn’t happened since the near-catastrophic flood of 1973.

Since then, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers built floodwalls at Morgan City and Berwick and beefed up the Old River Control Structure at Simmesport which nearly allowed the Mississippi River to change course to the Atchafalaya.

If the river at Morgan City reaches eight feet as it is projected to do in May, as many as 11 gates in the city’s floodwall will have to be closed, said Mayor Tim Matte.

While the official flood stage is four feet, the city’s enhanced flood protection infrastructure protects vulnerable businesses on Front Street up to a level of six feet.

Meanwhile, across the river, the community of Berwick is facing the same problem.

“Berwick Police Department is on watch at night,” said town superintendent Allen Benoit. “We may close the floodgates at First Street and Pacific Street.”

In the vulnerable areas of lower St. Martin, the Stephensville and Belle River areas, the parish makes sandbags available and mobilizes pumps.

Local officials have about a week to get ready based on conditions at Cairo, Ill., where the Ohio River flows into the Mississippi.

The Atchafalaya normally carries 30 percent of the Mississippi’s

flow, along with that of the Red River. If the Morganza Floodway is utilized, however, the Atchafalaya Basin could be called upon to handle half of the Mississippi’s flow up to 1.5 million cubic feet per second. The Wax Lake Outlet is designed to siphon off as much as 440,000 cfs, easing the impact on Morgan City and Berwick.

[ROLLTIDE]

....

ivil Emergency Message


TNC157-031800-

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
CIVIL EMERGENCY MESSAGE
MEMPHIS SHELBY COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY
RELAYED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
950 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2011

THE FOLLOWING MESSAGE IS TRANSMITTED AT THE REQUEST OF THE
MEMPHIS SHELBY COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY.

FLOOD WARNING

ALL SHELBY RESIDENTS SHOULD TAKE PRECAUTION NOW...ESPECIALLY
IF YOU LIVE WITHIN THE 100 YEAR FLOOD PLAIN OF RIVERS AND
STREAMS...TO BE PREPARED TO EVACUATE HOMES AND BUSINESSES IF
FLOODING OCCURS.

NEAR RECORD FLOODING IS FORECAST ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AS IT
BORDERS SHELBY COUNTY.

A MESSAGE FROM THE SHELBY COUNTY MAYOR MARK H. LUTTRELL...THIS IS
THE TIME TO GATHER ALL IMPORTANT ITEMS AND BE READY TO LEAVE YOUR
PROPERTY. THERE IS A VERY REAL POSSIBILITY PORTIONS OF SHELBY
COUNTY COULD BE AFFECTED BY THE RISING WATERS.

A C WHARTON...THE MAYOR OF MEMPHIS ADDED...WE WANT TO REASSURE OUR
CITIZENS THAT DISASTER TEAMS ARE IN PLACE AND WILL BE DOING
EVERYTHING POSSIBLE TO KEEP EVERYONE SAFE.

SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN ARE PREDICTED DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
RIVERS AND CREEKS ARE QUICKLY RISING IN THE WESTERN AREA OF SHELBY
COUNTY AND WILL LIKELY BACK UP INTO NEIGHBORHOODS NEAR CREEKS AND
STREAMS. FLOOD WATERS MAY ALSO RISE INTO NEIGHBORHOODS THROUGH
STORM DRAINS. CONDITIONS MAY WORSEN EACH DAY WITH THE CONTINUAL
RISE OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

GO IMMEDIATELY TO HIGHER GROUND IF WATER STARTS TO RISE. AVOID
FLOOD WATERS.

$$

[ROLLTIDE]

[dkmac]

Forecasted river stages:

RIVER STAGE FORECASTS                                             (A)BV
STATION        FS   7PM  12HR ....F O R E C A S T.....            (B)LO
                    STG   CHG 0504 0505 0506 0507 0508  CREST/DATE  FS
OHIO RIVER
SMITHLAND TW   40  54.1  +0.1 54.5 55.0 54.9 54.7 54.5  55.0 05/05A
PADUCAH        39  54.7  +0.1 55.0 55.8 55.7 55.5 55.3  55.8 05/05A
BROOKPORT      37  56.6E  MSG 57.0 57.5 57.4 57.2 57.0  57.5 05/05A
GRAND CHAIN    42  61.4E  MSG 61.5 61.7 61.7 61.6 61.5  61.7 05/05A
CAIRO          40  60.0  -0.6 60.0 60.0 60.0 59.9 59.8  NEAR CREST

MISSISSIPPI RIVER
CAPE GIRARDEAU 32  45.0  -0.8 45.0 44.1 43.2 42.2 41.1  Crested
THEBES         33  43.9  -0.1 43.5 42.7 41.9 41.1 40.1  Crested
NEW MADRID     34  46.7  +0.2 47.2 48.5 49.8 50.0 50.0  50.0 05/07A
TIPTONVILLE    37  47.7E  MSG 48.1 49.1 50.4 51.2 51.7  51.7 05/08A
CARUTHERSVILLE 32  45.8  +0.1 46.0 46.4 47.0 48.0 49.2  49.5 05/08P
OSCEOLA        28  44.0  +0.4 44.3 44.6 45.1 46.1 47.1  47.5 05/09A
MEMPHIS        34  43.8  +0.4 44.5 45.5 46.2 46.5 46.9  48.0 05/11A
HELENA         44  51.3  +0.7 51.8 52.8 53.6 54.3 54.7  56.0 05/12A
ARKANSAS CITY  37  43.2  +0.5 43.9 45.2 46.5 47.7 48.8  53.5 05/16A
GREENVILLE     48  54.5  +0.8 54.6 55.7 56.9 58.2 59.3  64.5 05/17A
VICKSBURG      43  46.4  +0.5 46.8 47.7 48.7 49.4 50.6  57.5 05/20A
NATCHEZ        48  51.6  +0.5 51.9 52.8 53.7 54.5 55.5  65.0 05/22A
RED RIVER LNDG 48  52.8E  MSG 53.1 54.0 54.7 55.4 56.2  65.5 05/23A
BATON ROUGE    35  35.4  +0.5 35.6 36.4 37.0 37.7 38.4  47.5 05/23P A.05/03P
DONALDSONVILLE 27  25.1  +0.5 25.3 25.9 26.5 27.0 27.6  36.0 05/23P A.05/06P
RESERVE        22  19.3E  MSG 19.4 19.9 20.4 20.9 21.3  25.0 05/24A A.05/13A
NEW ORLEANS   /17/ 14.0E  MSG 14.0 14.4 14.7 15.1 15.4  17.0 05/24A
/   /LEVEES PROTECT CITY OF NEW ORLEANS TO 20 FT STAGE.

ALL STAGE FORECASTS INCLUDE 24 HOURS OF FUTURE RAINFALL. 

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/lmrfc/?n=lmr...oriverforecast

[Joe-Nathan]

Here is one of many handy river gauge websites:

http://www2.mvr.usace.army.mil/Water...new/layout.cfm

[Joe-Nathan]

SOMETHING YOU DO NOT SEE TO OFTEN HERE IN S. LA:

HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1105 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2011

...CONTINGENCY FORECASTS ISSUED ATCHAFALAYA RIVER...

SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO RIVER
VALLEYS OVER THE PAST THREE WEEKS HAS LED TO HISTORIC...AND IN SOME
CASES RECORD BREAKING...RISES ON BOTH RIVERS. AS THIS WATER MOVES
DOWNRIVER...SIGNIFICANT RISES ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI AND
ATCHAFALAYA RIVERS THROUGH SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA.

ALL OF THE LATEST RIVER FORECASTS FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
FORECAST CENTER ACCOUNT FOR A FULL OPENING OF THE BONNET CARRE
SPILLWAY LOCATED IN ST. CHARLES PARISH. THE ARMY CORPS OF ENGINEERS
COULD OPEN THE BONNET CARRE SPILLWAY AS EARLY AS MONDAY. THE
OFFICIAL FORECASTS CURRENTLY DO NOT ACCOUNT FOR A POSSIBLE OPENING
OF THE MORGANZA SPILLWAY IN POINTE COUPEE PARISH. THE RIVER FORECAST
CENTER IS ALSO PROVIDING CONTINGENCY FORECASTS WHICH ACCOUNT FOR A
POSSIBLE OPENING OF THE MORGANZA SPILLWAY.

THE TABLE BELOW LISTS BOTH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST AND THE CONTINGENCY
FORECAST FOR MORGAN CITY ON THE ATCHAFALAYA RIVER. OPENING THE
MORGANZA SPILLWAY WOULD ALSO LEAD TO RISES AT OTHER POINTS ALONG
THE ATCHAFALAYA RIVER. THOSE CONTINGENCY FORECASTS WILL BE RUN ON
FRIDAY. ONCE THE CONTINGENCY FORECASTS HAVE BEEN COMPLETED FOR THE
OTHER POINTS ALONG THE ATCHAFALAYA RIVER THE TABLE BELOW WILL BE
UPDATED.

IT SHOULD ALSO BE NOTED THAT WHILE THE OFFICIAL FLOOD STAGES ARE
LISTED BELOW...MOST POPULATION CENTERS ARE PROTECTED BY FLOOD
CONTROL LEVEES TO MUCH HIGHER LEVELS.

FORECAST POINT      FLOOD    FORECAST WITH    CONTINGENCY WITH
                    STAGE   MORGANZA CLOSED     MORGANZA OPEN



MORGAN CITY          4.0          9.5             12.0-13.0


ST. MARTIN PARISH WILL BE HOLDING TWO PUBLIC AWARENESS MEETINGS
FOR STEPHENSVILLE AND BELLE RIVER RESIDENTS A MEETING IS SCHEDULED
FOR MONDAY MAY 9TH 2011 AT 630 PM LOCATED AT THE STEPHENSVILLE
ELEMENTARY SCHOOL.

THE PUBLIC AWARENESS MEETING FOR BUTTE LAROSE RESIDENTS IS
SCHEDULED FOR TUESDAY MAY 10 2011 AT 630 PM AND WILL BE LOCATED AT
THE BUTTE LAROSE FIRE STATION.

$$ 

[Joe-Nathan]

ONE MONTH RAIN TOTALS:

[ROLLTIDE]

...

One Stop Flood Resources Page Click Map to Enlarge

Real-Time River Data
Latest Stages, Forecast and Historical Information (AHPS)
NWS Memphis Hydrology Page
US Army Corps of Engineers - Memphis Division: News Releases
Civil Emergency Messages
Inundation Maps
Shelby County, TN : (By Zip Code)
DeSoto County, MS
Tipton County, TN
Mississippi : KML File for overlay on Google Earth / North Central MS
Emergency Management
Shelby County Office of Preparedness
Arkansas
West TEMA
Missouri
Mississippi
Are You a Victim of Flooding?
Submit Your Flooding Report
FEMA Offers Three Ways to Apply for Federal Assistance
Red Cross Shelter Locations
MidSouth Road Conditions
Arkansas : Road Closure List : Interstate 40 Impact Map
1-800-245-1672
1-501-569-2374
Tennessee
1-877-244-0065
Mississippi
1-888-728-4218
1-601-987-1211
Missouri
1-800-222-6400
Kentucky
1-866-737-3767
General Information
Flood Safety Rules
MODIS Satellite : Comparison of July 4,2010 and May 4,2011 (2MB Animated GIF)
The Mississippi River & Tributaries Project - USACE Paper (PDF)

[Joe-Nathan]

The Bonne Carrie will be opened early this coming week. The Moganza spillway will be opened either this week or early next week.

This one action alone will push over 50% of the Mississippi into the Atchafalayia Basin. Which will put Morgan City real close to flooding.


They have issued voluntary evacuations in Lower St. Martin Ph and St. Mary Ph. Especially those areas that had water from the May 1973 flood. Here in upper St. Martin Ph they have advised those living or having camps on the river side of the protection levees to begin preparing for on coming flood.

[ROLLTIDE]

...

hether you are driving or walking, if you come to a flooded road, Turn Around Don't Drown. You will not know the depth of the water nor will you know the condition of the road under the water. Each year, more deaths occur due to flooding than from any other thunderstorm related hazard. Why? The main reason is people underestimate the force and power of water. Many of the deaths occur in automobiles as they are swept downstream. Major to Record Flooding is expected along the Mississippi River over the course of the next two to three weeks. Dispalyed below, you will find critical information including: Updated National Weather Service Graphicasts, Potential Flood Maps at Crest Heights (USACE/NWS), and numerous Links to multiple agencies coordnating in response to the Mississippi River flooding that is ongoing at this time.
Click here for Interactive Google Map County and Parish Links for:
(Under Development)

• Emergency Point Contact Information
• Updated Road Closures
• Updated Flood Areas
• Evacuations Notices (as they become available)

NWS Jackson Graphicast:

NWS Memphis Graphicast:

Potential Flood Areas based on Forecast River

Crest Heights

Lower Mississippi River Forecast Center

Latest River Summary issued by the Lower Mississippi River Forecast Center
Latest Extended Streamflow Forecast issued by the Lower Mississippi River Forecast Center

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Precipitation

Current & Forecast

Hourly rainfall amounts

Daily rainfall amounts

Precipitation Forecast from the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center

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Corps of Engineers

Corps of Engineers Memphis district (from the confluence of the Ohio River and Mississippi River to Helena, Arkansas)
Corps of Engineers Vicksburg district (Arkansas City to Natchez)
Corps of Engineers New Orleans district (Red River Landing to New Orleans)

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Road Conditions

Mississippi Road and Potential Future Road Closures due to Flooding
Louisiana Road and Potential Future Road Closures due to Flooding
Arkansas Road and Potential Future Road Closures due to Flooding

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National Weather Service in Jackson, Mississippi

Lower Mississippi River Forecast Center

Birds Point New Madrid Floodway Joint Information Center

[dkmac]

Projections show Morganza Floodway opening would threaten more than a dozen communities

Published: Friday, May 06, 2011, 10:44 PM Updated: Friday, May 06, 2011, 11:21 PM

By Mark Schleifstein, The Times-Picayune The Times-Picayune











The likely, though not yet announced, opening of the Morganza Floodway to lower Mississippi River levels along Baton Rouge and New Orleans will produce widespread flooding that prompted the Army Corps of Engineers on Friday night to warn residents of Pointe Coupee, St Landry, St Martin, Iberia, Iberville, St Mary, and Terrebonne parishes to contact public officials about evacuation plans.
projectedfloodmaps.pdf
That announcement came in a news release accompanying a map showing estimates of inundation caused by a 50 percent opening of the Morganza Floodway that indicated that more than a dozen Louisiana communities will be threatened with floodwaters, including Houma, Plaquemine, St. Francisville, Morgan City, Berwick, Raceland and Mathews. The map is the result of computer modeling conducted during the past few days by the corps in support of its plans to open the spillway.
"As floodwaters progress through the Morganza Floodway to the Gulf of Mexico, the height of the water could reach between 5 and upwards of 25 feet above ground elevation, causing widespread flooding and inundation," says a news release accompanying the map.
"Public notice of operation (of the floodway) and required evacuation will be given through your state and local emergency officials and other governmental authorities, as well as media outlets," the news release said. "Notification will be given in advance with adequate time for evacuation; however, expeditious action must be taken to protect life and property." If the spillway is not opened, according to the most recent forecast of the Natiional Weather Service, the water level in the Mississippi River at New Orleans would rise to 19.5 feet, only a half foot from the top of floodwalls that protect the city.
And the flow rate of the river would be close to 1.9 million cubic feet, which could result in erosion of the levees in which those floodwalls are built or levees not topped by floodwalls in the area.
Gov. Bobby Jindal on Friday requested the inundation modeling result be provided to state officials.
"The corps projections show a large area inundated in south Louisiana," said Garret Graves, chairman of the Coastal Protection and Restoration Authority, the state's senior levee agency. "We have asked the Corps to immediately join the parishes, levee districts and others to take steps to prevent flooding of homes and businesses. I would take this threat very seriously."
"This map has been completed using the best information available and is believed to be accurate," reads a disclaimer printed on the document. "However, its preparation required many assumptions. Actual conditions during a flood event may vary from those assumed, so the accuracy cannot be guaranteed.
"The limits of flooding shown should only be used as a guideline for emergency planning and response action. Actual areas inundated will depend on specific flooding conditions and may differ from the areas shown on the map," it reads. "Information on this map is intended to permit state and local agencies to plan emergency evacuation and flood response actions." Most of the communities threatened with flooding would face one to five feet of water, according to the map. But water could rise as high as 25 feet near St. Francisville, north of Baton Rouge.

http://www.nola.com/news/index.ssf/2...a_spillwa.html

[ROLLTIDE]

[Joe-Nathan]

This is starting to get serious. To my knowledge the western Atch protection levee has never been tested like this before. If it breaks my neighbors all around me will be in trouble. I am some what safe in the fact that I live in the Teche ridge.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/lch/?n=atchafalayaflood

[Windwatcher]

Can't believe how many parishes are about to be flooded---seven parishes will be impacted? This is very very serious, and not at all what the people in south La need right now. Good Lord, when will it end?

[Joe-Nathan]

Can't believe how many parishes are about to be flooded---seven parishes will be impacted? This is very very serious, and not at all what the people in south La need right now. Good Lord, when will it end?

It is OK Wind. The plumbing in the Atch. Basin has been in need of a good flushing for several years now. Granted there will be a lot hunting camps lost, but a good cleaning of the system is needed.

I am joking.


I am more worried about Morgan City/Berwick areas. This will be the first real test of their Levee/floodwall systems. Will be an interesting few weeks for sure.

[dkmac]

Wind, the people/companies that built in the Atchafalayia Basin/Morganza Floodway knew upfront that there was a possibility of the Morganza spillway opening to relieve downriver water pressure on the MS river levees protecting Baton Rouge and points south. It's always a roll of the dice when you build in floodways - like the people up in Missouri where they blew open the levee to save towns further south down the river. Like J-N I worry about Morgan City testing their levees for the first time. Once they open the Morganza, the wild crawfish season will basically be over.