T.D. LEE

[grammie]

KPRC (Ch 2) in Houston says that we will be on the west side of the tropical moisture ... that it will go to Louisiana and miss us completely. ARGH!!!

KHOU (Ch 11) says increased chance of precip due to a possible tropical system in the upper Gulf.

[Joe-Nathan]

Well it looks like the players are in Place:

[Joe-Nathan]

KATC TV3 in Lafayette is saying that something might develop, but it is forecasted to meander around the north GOM. The kicker is that this system might keep most of the rain offshore. SO IT MIGHT NOT BE THE DROUGHT BUSTER!!!!

Wait and see...

[jess]

One local wizard is forecasting a front in the Monday to Tuesday range. It's supposed to have some rain, lower temperatures and drop the humidity. Time will tell. If so, this will be an early start to Autumn.

[hesposito]

Last night, Weather channel mentioned two potential disturbances around BOC and Caribbean to watch. NHC doesn't even have an area in yellow at this point, so time will tell.

[uhphikap]

Well that just figures, lol. We haven't had any real rain, and the first weekend we have plans (Kid Rock at an outdoor theatre) here it comes. Oh well.

Yeah, and it's the start of College Football season, too. I have a large tailgate party planned for Saturday at the University of Houston. We need the rain, but if it could hold off a bit on Saturday, that would be grrrrrreat!

[TexasRiverRat]

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 450 AM CDT TUE AUG 30 2011/

DISCUSSION...
THIS COULD BE THE LAST DAY FOR THE HEAT ADVISORY. MAX TEMPS WILL
STILL TOP OUT IN THE MID 100S WITH UPPER 90S/LOW 100S TOMORROW.
MAX TEMPS IN THE 90S ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
THIS MAY ALSO BE THE LAST DAY THAT MAX TEMP RECORDS WILL BE
TIED/BROKEN BUT FORECAST IS FOR MAX TEMPS AT OR BELOW RECORDS.

THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE THE EVOLUTION OF A TROPICAL
WAVE IN THE W CARIBBEAN SOUTH OF CUBA. THERE IS A LARGE DEGREE OF
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING ITS EVOLUTION AND DEVELOPMENT. OF THE
SYNOPTIC MODELS...THE NAM REMAINS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH
DEVELOPING A WEAK TROPICAL SYSTEM ON THU. THIS IS DIFFERENT FROM
PREVIOUS PROGGS WHICH SHOWED A SURGE OF TROPICAL AIR WITH PRECIP
WATER VALUES AROUND 2.5 INCHES. DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF
TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT...DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE DOES NOT MOVE INTO
THE REGION UNTIL THURSDAY SO BACKED OFF ON POPS WED/WED NIGHT.
THE GFS/ECMWF ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS THOUGHT BUT
AT THE SAME TIME ARE MUCH SLOWER BY ABOUT 24 HOURS TO DEVELOP A
TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE NAM DEEPENS THE CYCLONE TO AROUND 990MB ON
THE 06Z RUN DURING THE DAY FRI WHILE THE GFS/ECMWF HAVE A WEAK
DEPRESSION. THE GFS/ECMWF EVENTUALLY DEVELOP TROPICAL STORMS BUT
ARE SLOWER TO DO SO WITH VERY DIFFERENT TRACKS.
SURPRISINGLY...NONE OF THE MODELS TAKE THE SYSTEM INLAND AS A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE N PLAINS FRI AS WELL AS WHEN
ANOTHER STRONGER SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS SAT/SUN. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND THU/FRI BUT THEN RETRACT BACK OVER
THE 4 CORNERS REGION. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF RING A COLD FRONT INTO
TX ON MONDAY WHICH SEEMS TO KEEP ANY TROPICAL SYSTEM IN THE GULF
BEFORE PUSHING INTO THE LOWER TX COAST. TO SAY THE LEAST...THERE
IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY TO THE FORECAST. THE TRACK AND
INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM LARGELY DETERMINE RAIN CHANCES AND TEMPS.
THE FORECAST HAS BACKED OFF SOME AND KEPT MAINLY 30/40 POPS FOR
MUCH OF SE TX AND HAS KEPT MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 90S. THIS PART OF
THE FORECAST WILL BE SUBJECT TO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES AND THE
DETAILS OF WHICH WILL NOT BE DETERMINED UNTIL A TROPICAL SYSTEM
FORMS AND THE MODELS CAN FULLY RESOLVE IT.

39

!!!

[TXFPCoach]

From The Houston Chronicle:

Two more days of heat, and then we watch the tropics
Houston had another 107-degree day Monday. Wow.

Houston has just experienced three of the 11 warmest days on record in the city.

Here’s a list of the 11 days, according to the National Weather Service, on which Houston has recorded temperatures of at least 107 degrees or above.

109 degrees (Sept. 4, 2000; August 27, 2011)

108 degrees (Aug. 18, 1909; Sept. 5, 2000)

107 degrees (August 19, 1906; August 20, 1909; August 23, 1980; August 31, 2000; Sept. 1, 2000; August 28, 2011; August 29, 2011)

Fortunately the really torrid temperatures should end soon. Houston has just a couple more 100-degree days before significantly cooler weather arrives, with temperatures likely falling into the mid-90s, and then the lower 90s by the weekend.

There’s even the whiff of a decent cool front in the next seven to 10 days.

TROPICS

People have been pinging me since yesterday afternoon about the potential for a tropical development in the Gulf of Mexico this weekend. I was a bit skeptical at first, and I didn’t want to alarm people unnecessarily, but now the models continue to show the surge of tropical moisture we’ve been discussing developing into a tropical system.

At issue is the evolution of a tropical wave, presently south of Cuba, that can be seen in the overnight satellite image below.


Lots of moisture in the Caribbean Sea that should move into the Gulf. (NexSat)
This tropical wave is now worth talking about because some of the models, in successive runs, continue to develop a tropical storm or depression in the northwest Gulf of Mexico this weekend.

These include the European model, which below depicts both Hurricane Katia north of Puerto Rico off the Atlantic coast as well as a tropical storm off the Texas coast. Katia, by the way, will steer clear of the Gulf of Mexico but very well may threaten the U.S. East Coast. It’s now a tropical storm but is forecast to become a major hurricane within five days.


Overnight run of the ECMWF forecasts conditions Monday evening. (Ryan Maue)
The GFS model also depicts a tropical storm swirling off the Texas coast before it is pushed to the east and into the northern Gulf of Mexico coast by, of all things, a cool front. The reason there are no clear solutions right now is that atmospheric steering currents in the Gulf of Mexico are forecast to be quite weak.

As local forecasters with the National Weather Service note, there is a great amount of uncertainty about the likelihood of development by this tropical wave now in the western Caribbean and the timing of the cool front.

We therefore cannot rule out a hurricane strike on Texas, especially if the system remains over the warm Gulf waters for some time. Another bad case scenario would be if the storm swirls just far enough off the coast to keep its tropical rains away from inland areas of Texas.

But honestly no one can say for sure what will happen. Here’s what I know with confidence: There’s a tropical threat to Texas in the next week. Temperatures are going to go down. Rain chances are going to go up.

Needless to say I’ll be tracking this closely.

[pullenr]

Most models are bullish on Gulf development in 3-5 days. The GFS favors the southwestern Gulf (landfall in northern TX); the NOGAPs the eastern Gulf (landfall in MS/AL); the NAM NW Caribbean (landfall NE TX); the ECMWF the western Gulf (probable landfall TX); the UKMET the western Gulf (landfall NE Mexico); the experimental FIMY the NW Caribbean (landfall in LA); the experimental FIMS the southcentral Gulf (landfall NE TX).

[Joe-Nathan]

Most models are bullish on Gulf development in 3-5 days. The GFS favors the southwestern Gulf (landfall in northern TX); the NOGAPs the eastern Gulf (landfall in MS/AL); the NAM NW Caribbean (landfall NE TX); the ECMWF the western Gulf (probable landfall TX); the UKMET the western Gulf (landfall NE Mexico); the experimental FIMY the NW Caribbean (landfall in LA); the experimental FIMS the southcentral Gulf (landfall NE TX).

Since you only mentioned LA once then LA it will be...sorry TX

[LeahinSlidell]

Since you only mentioned LA once then LA it will be...sorry TX

We really could use it....that brush fire needs to be put out!

[Treasure Isle Weatherman]

A weak system in the northwestern gulf would press tons of moisture over the marsh fire.

[ROLLTIDE]

The 12z CMC is saying South Texas

[ROLLTIDE]

2PM

A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS ACCOMPANIED
BY DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE GENERALLY WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH ACROSS THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...AND HAS SOME POTENTIAL FOR
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO IN A FEW DAYS. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[ROLLTIDE]

[ROLLTIDE]

[jackkip]

The 12z CMC is saying South Texas

Bring it on....we are ready for any kind of rain ;-)

[ROLLTIDE]

[Joe-Nathan]

Well South Texas does need the rain alot more than me. Just hope is doesn't come in the form like TS Allison was back in 2001.

[vampgrrl]

How strong could this be? I'm going to Atlanta this weekend...should I take some of my belongings with me or not? I can't see a strong storm but what to do I know?