HURRICANE OPHELIA

[CCRanch]

Either 97 or 98 is gonna be the drought buster for Texas...I gotta feeling.

[dkmac]

20%

1. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICALATLANTIC ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN THE LESSER ANTILLES AND AFRICA ISPRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS.ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OFTHIS LARGE DISTURBANCE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT MOVESWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[Smitter]

Well Looks like the Cape Verde Storms are going to give it one last shot for the Yr. Let's see what happens.

[ROLLTIDE]

[ROLLTIDE]

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[ROLLTIDE]

This is the one worth watching



http://www.hardcoreweather.com/blog.php

[halecjaclyn]

I'm all for getting this drought busted, however let's get this over with as I've planned a cruise for the end of October ;)

[SETXCowboy]

I got rain today

[shorty]

i agree with ya all,just a funny feeling,that or im wishing and hoping for a drought buster.and as bad as it is,going to take a little more.lets hope and see.

[ROLLTIDE]

...

Return to Atlantic Graphical TWO
1. A WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE AREA IS LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC ABOUT 1450 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND MORE CONCENTRATED NEAR THE CENTER OF THE LOW...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH.

[dkmac]

[dkmac]

Crown:

[h=2]Invest 98L In The Central Atlantic Likely To Develop Into A Tropical Depression Within The Next Day Or So & May Affect The Windward Islands, Barbados & Trinidad & Tobago With Tropical Storm Conditions By Thursday Night & Friday[/h]Rob Lightbown on September 19, 2011, 5:25 am

Invest 98L In The Central Atlantic:
I’m keeping a close eye on an intensifying low pressure system that is currently located around 1425 miles east of the Windward Islands. Satellite loops indicate that this system, designated Invest 98L by the National Hurricane Center, has become better organized overnight and it appears that 98L may become a tropical depression or a tropical storm within the next day or two. Most of the global model guidance do develop 98L into a tropical storm over the next few days, however, the GFS and European models forecast that this system will weaken into a tropical wave as it tracks across the Lesser Antilles and into the eastern Caribbean from Friday into Saturday.
Analyzing the environment around Invest 98L this morning, conditions are favorable for development and I do think we will see this develop into a tropical depression either later today or on Tuesday and then a tropical storm by about Wednesday. After that, it appears that the ridge of high pressure to the north of this system will strengthen causing 98L to accelerate in forward speed and the entire system outrunning itself and decoupling; causing it to weaken into a tropical wave as it gets into the eastern Caribbean late this week.
For those of you in Barbados, the Windward Islands and Trinidad and Tobago, please be aware that tropical storm conditions are a possibility starting Thursday night and continuing through all day Friday before slowly diminishing on Saturday.
Invest 98L Information


Model Track Forecast:



Model Intensity Forecast:

Hurricane Track Model Forecast Text
GFDL Model Forecast Text
UKMET Model Forecast Text
Hurricane Model Track Guidance Links From Allan Huffman
ATCF Images (Hurricane Track Models)
GFDL/HWRF Model Images
Satellite Pictures Of Invest 98L:



Satellite Products Of Invest 98L From CIMSS
The next tropical weather discussion will be issued by 7 am EDT/6 am CDT Tuesday Morning.

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[Windwatcher]

i agree with ya all,just a funny feeling,that or im wishing and hoping for a drought buster.and as bad as it is,going to take a little more.lets hope and see.

Hoping for at least a hefty tropical depression for Texas---my family said they are actually praying for a small hurricane, which they would take over the fires any day! Glad to see you posting again, Shorty!

[ROLLTIDE]

[ROLLTIDE]

8AM

GIS data: .shp

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 800 AM EDT MON SEP 19 2011 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... 1. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 1450 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT BEGINS TO MOVE WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH. 2. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS LIMITED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 900 MILES EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT... OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN NNNN

[ROLLTIDE]

Sorry about the lack of updates but I am traveling today so it's up to you to keep this thread going

[ROLLTIDE]

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00Z CMC

[ROLLTIDE]

NOGAPS