HURRICANE OPHELIA

[dkmac]

Crown:

[h=2]Ophelia Is Strengthening & Will Track To The East Of Bermuda On Saturday; Philippe Tracking West-Northwest & Will Strengthen Over The Next Couple Of Days; The Western Caribbean Needs To Be Watched After October 10[/h]Rob Lightbown on September 29, 2011, 5:41 am

Tropical Storm Ophelia:
Ophelia continues to strengthen this morning and this strengthening should continue right into Saturday and this will cause Ophelia to become a hurricane sometime on Friday. Ophelia is then expected to weaken once we get into Sunday and Monday as the storm tracks over significantly cooler ocean waters and increasing wind shear. Ophelia is currently tracking north-northwest at a forward speed of 7 mph and the storm should track in a general north to north-northwest motion right up to about Saturday and then turn to the north-northeast and speed up in forward speed by Sunday and Monday. Ophelia is expected to track east of Bermuda and is expected to impact eastern Newfoundland by Sunday night.
Forecast Wind Swath Map For Ophelia:


Model Track Forecast For Ophelia:


Model Intensity Forecast For Ophelia:

Satellite Imagery Of Ophelia:



Satellite Products Of Ophelia From CIMSS

The Western Caribbean Will Need To Be Watched After October 10:
The western Caribbean will need to be monitored very closely starting around October 10 as there is expected to be a fairly strong upward motion of the Madden Julian Oscillation located in the Caribbean right around October 13. It is worthy to note that the GFS model is no longer pushing back the date of tropical cyclone development and now seems to be pointing to between October 10 and October 13 that development may occur. Additionally, the European model is hinting that a broad area of low pressure will form in the southwestern Caribbean around October 8.
So, while it appears that the Caribbean will be quiet for the next week to 10 days, trouble may be brewing once we get into Columbus Day weekend and beyond.
The next tropical weather discussion will be issued sometime on Saturday. No tropical weather discussions will be issued on Friday.

---

[dkmac]

JM

Ophelia strengthening; Typhoon Nalgae a new threat to the Philippines

Posted by: JeffMasters, 8:51 AM CDT on September 29, 2011

+4

Tropical Storm Ophelia is strengthening as it pulls away from the Lesser Antilles Islands and heads north-northwest. Recent satellite loops show that Ophelia has developed a Central Dense Overcast (CDO) of high cirrus clouds over its core, which is characteristic of strengthening tropical storms that are nearing hurricane intensity. Dry air and moderate wind shear of 15 - 20 knots are slowing down Ophelia's intensification, but by Friday morning, wind shear is expected to fall to 10 - 15 knots, and remain below 15 knots through Sunday morning. This should allow Ophelia to intensify into a hurricane on Friday. Most of the models agree that Ophelia will track far enough to the east of Bermuda that the island should see sustained winds below 45 mph, since it will be on the weak (left) side of the storm. We can't rule out the possibility that Bermuda will receive hurricane force winds yet, but the odds are low--the 5 am wind probability forecast from NHC gave Bermuda just a 3% chance of receiving hurricane force winds. Ophelia's closest approach to the island will be late Saturday night and early Sunday morning. Ophelia is likely to bring high winds and heavy rains to Southeast Newfoundland Sunday night, as a weakening tropical storm.

In the middle Atlantic, Tropical Storm Philippe is headed west-northwest, and is not expected to trouble and land areas. Satellite loops show Philippe is a small system with little heavy thunderstorm activity. Wind shear is expected to diminish some today over the storm, which should allow the storm to intensify. However, by Saturday, Philippe will be encountering very high wind shear of 30 - 40 knots associated with the upper-level outflow from Ophelia. This shear will probably be high enough to destroy Philippe by Monday. In the event Philippe does survive the shear, the storm could penetrate far enough west that Bermuda might need to be concerned with it.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic, none of the computer models is calling for a new tropical storm to form in the coming seven days. The large-scale environment over the Atlantic currently favors sinking air, due to the current phase of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO). This situation will likely last well into next week, and will discourage formation of new tropical storms. The MJO is a 30-60 day cycle of thunderstorm activity that affects the tropics.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Ophelia, showing the large Central Dense Overcast (CDO) that has formed.

Typhoon Nesat battering China
Typhoon Nesat hit China's Hainan Island today as a Category 1 typhoon with 75 mph winds. While Nesat's winds and storm surge will not cause major damage, it is a very wet storm, capable of dropping up to 8 inches of rain in 24 hours, according to latest satellite rainfall forecasts. Haikou on Hainan Island recorded a wind gust of 78 mph and 3.23" of rain as the eyewall passed just to the north. Nesat will hit Vietnam near Hanoi as a tropical storm on Saturday.

Nesat roared across Luzon Island in the Philippines Monday as a powerful Category 3 typhoon with 120 mph winds, leaving 35 people dead and 45 missing. The Philippines has a new worry today: Typhoon Nalgae has formed 700 miles to the east of Luzon Island, and is expected to follow a course just to the north of Nesat's. Nalgae is expected to intensify into a major Category 3 typhoon and hit the northern portion of Luzon on Saturday afternoon, local time. With soils on the island already saturated from the heavy rains Nesat brought, the new typhoon promises to bring heavy flooding to Luzon this weekend.


Figure 2. True-color MODIS image of Typhoon Nesat over the South China Sea taken at 1:35 pm local time September 28, 2011. At the time, Nesat was a Category 1 typhoon with 75 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

Jeff Masters

[ROLLTIDE]

[dkmac]

5AM Now a CAT 2 storm.

HURRICANE OPHELIA ADVISORY NUMBER 31
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162011
500 AM AST FRI SEP 30 2011

...OPHELIA RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES INTO A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.4N 62.6W
ABOUT 695 MI...1120 KM SSE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...160 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...973 MB...28.73 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OPHELIA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.6 WEST. OPHELIA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H. A TURN TO
THE NORTH WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF OPHELIA IS EXPECTED TO PASS
EAST OF BERMUDA ON SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. OPHELIA IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING
IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175
MILES...280 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 973 MB...28.73 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ON BERMUDA STARTING
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS CREATED BY OPHELIA WILL CAUSE HAZARDOUS SURF
CONDITIONS ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE BEACHES OF BERMUDA.

RAINFALL...RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED
ON BERMUDA IN ASSOCIATION WITH OPHELIA.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 AM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

HURRICANE OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 31
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162011
500 AM AST FRI SEP 30 2011

OPHELIA HAS BEEN RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS
BASED ON AN EYE FEATURE OCCASIONALLY APPARENT ON BOTH INFRARED AND
NIGHT-VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES. MICROWAVE IMAGERY INDICATES A
WELL-DEVELOPED AND CLOSED DEEP-LAYER EYE...ALBEIT TILTED SLIGHTLY
TO THE NORTHEAST. A BLEND OF SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF
T5.0/90 KT FROM SAB...T4.5/77 KT FROM TAFB...AND UW-CIMSS AVERAGE
ADT OF T4.7/82 KT IS THE BASIS FOR THE 85-KT ADVISORY INTENSITY.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 345/08 KT. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK REASONING. OPHELIA IS
CURRENTLY ROUNDING THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SITUATED ALONG 32N LATITUDE. AN UNSEASONABLY
STRONG MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN AND MOVE
EASTWARD TO THE U.S. EAST COAST BY 48 HOURS...AND WILL ACT TO
ACCELERATE AND LIFT OPHELIA NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS. BY
DAYS 3-4...OPHELIA IS FORECAST TO MERGE WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM AND
BE OVER MUCH COLDER WATER...WHICH WILL RESULT IN THE CYCLONE
BECOMING A STRONG POST-TROPICAL WINTER-TYPE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
THAT WILL TURN EASTWARD NEAR THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THE ONLY
NOTICEABLE CHANGE IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS A SOUTHWARD SHIFT IN THE
GUIDANCE TRACKS AFTER 72 HOURS. IN FACT...THE NEW ECMWF RUN BARELY
TAKES OPHELIA AS FAR NORTH AS 45N LATITUDE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
TRACK WAS NUDGED SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT THROUGH 72 HOURS...AND THEN
BROUGHT FARTHER SOUTH IN LINE WITH THE CONSENSUS MODEL...TVCN...BUT
NOT AS FAR SOUTH AS THE ECMWF MODEL TRACK.

THE OUTFLOW OF OPHELIA REMAINS QUITE IMPRESSIVE...EXCEPT THAT THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THE CIRRUS OUTFLOW HAS STARTED TO FLATTEN AND
DISSIPATE AS WESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ENCROACH ON THE CYCLONE.
HOWEVER...THE LIGHT TO MODERATE WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR THAT
IS CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO TURN MORE FROM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST BY 36-48 HOURS...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME
ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING TO OCCUR. ALTHOUGH FURTHER RAPID
STRENGTHENING IS A POSSIBILITY...THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST BY
THE SHIPS MODEL TO FLUCTUATE BETWEEN 5 AND 15 KT DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...WHICH SHOULD ACT TO KEEP THE EYE TILTED AT TIMES AND LIKELY
DISRUPT THE RAPID INTENSIFICATION PROCESS. AS A RESULT...ONLY
MODEST STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST UNTIL OPHELIA REACHES 22C AND
COLDER SSTS SHORTLY AFTER THE 48-HOUR TIME PERIOD...WHICH IS ALSO
COINCIDENT WITH AN EXPECTED SHARP INCREASE IN THE VERTICAL SHEAR.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS
MODEL...ICON...THROUGH 72 HOURS...AND THEN LEANS CLOSE TO THE LGEM
MODEL AFTER THAT. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT SOME OF THE GLOBAL MODELS
ARE NOW HOLDING ON TO OPHELIA AS A ROBUST EXTRATROPICAL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM BEYOND 96 HOURS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/0900Z 22.4N 62.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 30/1800Z 24.2N 63.1W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 01/0600Z 27.0N 63.4W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 01/1800Z 30.1N 62.9W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 02/0600Z 34.6N 61.7W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 03/0600Z 44.3N 57.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 04/0600Z 51.5N 38.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 05/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[ROLLTIDE]

2PM

2:00 PM AST Fri Sep 30
Location: 24.1°N 62.9°W
Max sustained: 115 mph
Moving: N at 12 mph
Min pressure: 960 mb

[dkmac]

8AM

HURRICANE OPHELIA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 35A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162011
800 AM AST SAT OCT 01 2011

...HURRICANE OPHELIA CONTINUES ON A NORTHWARD HEADING WITH 120 MPH
WINDS...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.6N 63.0W
ABOUT 280 MI...450 KM SSE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...952 MB...28.11 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO BERMUDA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS
ISSUED BY THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE OPHELIA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.0 WEST. OPHELIA
IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/H. ON THIS TRACK THE
THE CORE OF HURRICANE OPHELIA WILL PASS EAST OF BERMUDA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST SHOULD BEGIN
ON SUNDAY WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 120 MPH...195 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. OPHELIA IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY
DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL WEAKENING.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES...65 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205
MILES...335 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 952 MB...28.11 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ON BERMUDA BY THIS
AFTERNOON.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS CREATED BY OPHELIA WILL CAUSE HAZARDOUS SURF
CONDITIONS ALONG THE SOUTH-FACING BEACHES OF BERMUDA.

RAINFALL...RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO 1 INCH CAN BE EXPECTED
ON BERMUDA IN ASSOCIATION WITH OPHELIA.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

HURRICANE OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 35
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162011
500 AM AST SAT OCT 01 2011

SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...THE EYE HAS BECOME MORE DISTINCT IN
INFRARED IMAGERY AND THE EYE TEMPERATURE HAS WARMED TO ABOUT 11
DEGREES CELSIUS. THE EYE OF OPHELIA PASSED DIRECTLY OVER NOAA BUOY
41049 AROUND 08Z...AND THE BUOY REPORTED A 1-MINUTE SUSTAINED WIND
OF 84 KT WITH A GUST OF 101 KT AT A HEIGHT OF 5 METERS...AND A
PRESSURE OF 951.9 MB. BASED ON THE BUOY PRESSURE AND SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T5.5/102 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB...THE
ADVISORY INTENSITY WILL REMAIN AT 105 KT. WIND RADII WERE ADJUSTED
SLIGHTLY BASED ON WINDS OBTAINED FROM A 01/0106Z ASCAT OVERPASS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS A STEADY 360/15 KT. OPHELIA IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE MOVING NORTHWARD FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO...AND THEN
GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND ACCELERATE AS THE HURRICANE
COMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY STEERING FLOW
AHEAD OF A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING EASTWARD OFF THE U.S.
EAST COAST. BY 48 HOURS...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO TURN SHARPLY
EASTWARD AS IT ENTERS A BAND OF FAST-MOVING WESTERLIES NORTH OF 45N
LATITUDE. BY THAT TIME...OPHELIA IS FORECAST TO BE OVER WATERS
COLDER THAN 20C AND ALSO BEGIN TO MERGE WITH A STRONG FRONTAL
SYSTEM...WHICH SHOULD INDUCE A QUICK TRANSITION INTO A POWERFUL
POST-TROPICAL WINTER-TYPE CYCLONE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND LIES DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE
TIGHTLY PACKED NHC MODEL GUIDANCE SUITE.

THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS INTENSITY FORECAST.
OPHELIA COULD STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY TODAY AS THE MAJOR HURRICANE
REMAINS OVER SSTS NEAR 28C AND IN A VERTICAL SHEAR CONDITIONS OF
LESS THAN 5 KT. BY 24 HOURS...HOWEVER...INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY
WIND SHEAR AND COOLER WATERS SHOULD INDUCE GRADUAL WEAKENING UNTIL
THE 36-HOUR TIME PERIOD. AFTER THAT...OPHELIA WILL MOVE OVER MUCH
COLDER WATER AND ENCOUNTER STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR OF MORE THAN 30
KT...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE MORE RAPID WEAKENING AND ALSO TRANSITION
INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS CLOSE TO THE INTENSITY
CONSENSUS MODEL...ICON.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/0900Z 27.7N 63.1W 105 KT 120 MPH
12H 01/1800Z 30.4N 62.8W 100 KT 115 MPH
24H 02/0600Z 34.8N 61.9W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 02/1800Z 40.1N 60.3W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 03/0600Z 44.8N 55.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 04/0600Z 51.0N 36.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 05/0600Z...ABSORBED

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[dkmac]

Crown:

[h=2]Major Hurricane Ophelia & Tropical Storm Philippe Are No Threat To Any Land Masses; I Think We Will See Tropical Cyclone Development In The Central Or Western Caribbean Between October 9 & October 18[/h]Rob Lightbown on October 1, 2011, 6:37 am

Ophelia is a major Category 3 hurricane this morning with 120 mph maximum winds. Ophelia passed right over a NOAA buoy and this buoy recorded sustained winds of 96 mph with gusts to 116 mph. Over the next few days, Ophelia will weaken as it tracks northward into stronger wind shear to the north. The hurricane will pass to the east of Bermuda later today without any significant impacts. Other than that, Ophelia poses no threat to any other land masses.
Tropical Storm Philippe is likely to be of no threat to any land masses. After tracking westward to west-southwestward from today through Tuesday, it appears that the storm will turn sharply to the northeast to the east of Bermuda during Wednesday and Thursday.
I still believe that we may see development in the Caribbean, particularly the western Caribbean, starting as early as next weekend. Strong high pressure is expected to build over New England late next week; these types of high pressure systems typically lead to much lower pressures in the Caribbean. In addition, the upward motion pulse of the Madden Julian Oscillation is forecast to move into the Caribbean between October 10 and October 15. Given the overall pattern recognition signs that are there, I think we will see tropical cyclone development either somewhere in the central and western Caribbean or the southern Gulf of Mexico and the central & southeastern Bahamas between October 9 and October 18.
Both the GFS and European model guidance are going back and forth regarding development in this area. Yesterday’s 12Z GFS model run indicated that tropical development may start occurring right around October 10 and 11 in the southwest Caribbean. This forecast system then festers in the western Caribbean near Jamaica and the Cayman Islands right through October 16. The latest 00Z GFS model run forecasts that a broad area of low pressure may develop in the southwest Caribbean between October 10 and October 12. This developing tropical cyclone is then pulled north-northeastward across Jamaica around October 15 and then is forecast to be near eastern Cuba by October 16.
As for the European model, yesterday’s 12Z model run forecasted that a broad area of low pressure is to develop over the southwest Caribbean next Saturday and the 12Z European model forecasts that this developing system is to become a fairly strong tropical cyclone by October 10 near western Cuba. The latest 00Z European model run backs way off and forecasts two areas of low pressure to develop between the southeastern Bahamas and the central and southwestern Caribbean in about 10 days from now. It should be pointed out that the European ensemble guidance points to a concentrated area of low pressure to develop over the western Caribbean just east of Honduras.
Additionally, the entire pattern of a strong ridge of high pressure moving into New England late next week is likely to lead to several days of strong easterly winds of 25 to 40 mph and rough seas along the entire east coast of Florida starting as early as Tuesday and continuing right through next Saturday or Sunday. The timeframe of the strongest winds and roughest seas look to be between Wednesday evening and early next Saturday morning. All of our Crown Weather friends along the east coast of Florida from Jacksonville to Miami should be aware of the potential for rip tides and the possibility of some coastal flooding given the length of time that there will be a strong onshore wind flow.
Forecast Wind Swath Map For Ophelia:


Model Track Forecast For Ophelia:


Model Intensity Forecast For Ophelia:

Satellite Imagery Of Ophelia:



Satellite Products Of Ophelia From CIMSS

The next tropical weather discussion will be issued by 7 am EDT/6 am CDT Monday morning. No tropical weather discussions will be issued on Sunday.

---

[HarvestMoon]

500 AM AST SUN OCT 02 2011

000
WTNT31 KNHC 020835
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
HURRICANE OPHELIA ADVISORY NUMBER 39
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162011
500 AM AST SUN OCT 02 2011

...OPHELIA WEAKENS BUT STILL A MAJOR HURRICANE AS IT MOVES
QUICKLY NORTHWARD...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...36.2N 61.8W
ABOUT 320 MI...515 KM NNE OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 855 MI...1370 KM SW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 29 MPH...46 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...948 MB...27.99 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE AVALON PENINSULA OF NEWFOUNDLAND

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE OPHELIA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 36.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 61.8 WEST. OPHELIA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 29 MPH...46 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED SHOULD BEGIN
LATER TODAY. THE CENTER OF OPHELIA IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR THE
AVALON PENINSULA OF NEWFOUNDLAND ON MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 125 MPH...205 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. OPHELIA IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. STEADY WEAKENING IS FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY.
HOWEVER...OPHELIA IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH WHEN IT
PASSES CLOSE TO THE AVALON PENINSULA ON MONDAY.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185
MILES...295 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 948 MB...27.99 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE AVALON
PENINSULA BY EARLY MONDAY.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS CREATED BY OPHELIA WILL CAUSE HAZARDOUS SURF
CONDITIONS ON BERMUDA. THESE CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE
TODAY.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 AM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

000
WTNT41 KNHC 020836
TCDAT1

HURRICANE OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 39
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162011
500 AM AST SUN OCT 02 2011

JUST PRIOR TO 06Z...UW-CIMSS ADT ESTIMATES WERE AVERAGING BETWEEN
T62/119 KT AND T6.3/121 KT. SINCE THAT TIME...HOWEVER... THE ADT
ESTIMATES HAVE BEEN STEADILY DECREASING BELOW T6.0/115 KT. AS A
RESULT...THE INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 110 KT ON THIS ADVISORY.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 010/25 KT. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK REASONING. THE NHC MODEL
GUIDANCE REMAINS TIGHTLY PACKED THROUGH 36 HOURS. OPHELIA IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO
AND THEN TURN NORTHEASTWARD...BRINGING THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE
OVER OR NEAR THE AVALON PENINSULA OF NEWFOUNDLAND IN ABOUT 30
HOURS. AFTER THAT...THE MODELS DIVERGE ON WHETHER THE EXTRATROPICAL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER OR NORTH OF THE BRITISH ISLES.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY
TRACK THROUGH 36 HOURS...AND IS A LITTLE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST AFTER THAT BASED ON GUIDANCE FROM THE NOAA OCEAN
PREDICTION CENTER...AND THE ECMWF AND GFS MODELS.

OPHELIA IS MOVING OVER SUB-27C SSTS NOW AND THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS
BECOME ELONGATED NORTHWEST-TO-SOUTHEAST...SUGGESTING THAT SOUTHERLY
TO SOUTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR IS BEGINNING TO AFFECT THE CYCLONE.
MUCH COOLER WATER LIES NORTH OF 40N LATITUDE AND THE VERTICAL SHEAR
IS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO ABOVE 35 KT IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. THE
COMBINATION OF STRONG SHEAR AND COLD WATER SHOULD INDUCE STEADY TO
RAPID WEAKENING DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH TRANSITION TO A
POST-TROPICAL EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY 36 HOURS...IF NOT SOONER.
THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...
AND IS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS/LGEM INTENSITY MODELS AND GUIDANCE FROM
THE NOAA OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/0900Z 36.2N 61.8W 110 KT 125 MPH
12H 02/1800Z 39.9N 60.2W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 03/0600Z 44.4N 56.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 03/1800Z 47.9N 48.8W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 04/0600Z 50.5N 39.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 05/0600Z 56.0N 17.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 06/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[dkmac]

5AM

TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA ADVISORY NUMBER 43
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162011
500 AM AST MON OCT 03 2011

...OPHELIA WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM AS IT RACES TOWARD THE AVALON
PENINSULA OF NEWFOUNDLAND....


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...46.5N 54.2W
ABOUT 55 MI...85 KM WSW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 43 MPH...69 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE AVALON PENINSULA OF NEWFOUNDLAND

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 46.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 54.2 WEST. OPHELIA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 43 MPH...69 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE
EAST-NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED LATER
TODAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF OPHELIA IS EXPECTED TO
PASS OVER THE AVALON PENINSULA OF NEWFOUNDLAND THIS MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAS DECREASED TO NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST...AND OPHELIA
IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES...
370 KM...PRIMARILY EAST THROUGH SOUTH OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 983 MB...29.03 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE AVALON
PENINSULA THIS MORNING.

RAINFALL...OPHELIA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 2 TO 3 INCHES OVER SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND.

SURF...LARGE WAVES AND SWELLS GENERATED BY OPHELIA WILL AFFECT
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH COAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND TODAY...CAUSING
LIFE-THREATENING SURF CONDITIONS.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 AM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 43
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162011
500 AM AST MON OCT 03 2011

THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF OPHELIA HAS CONTINUED TO DETERIORATE
THIS MORNING...AND THE CYCLONE IS QUICKLY LOSING ITS TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS OVER WATER TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 10-15 CELSIUS.
THERE REMAINS A SMALL AREA OF MODERATE CONVECTION WITH CLOUD TOPS
COLDER THAN -50C JUST NORTHEAST OF THE ALLEGED CENTER...BUT THE
AREAL COVERAGE OF THIS CONVECTION HAS BEEN RAPIDLY SHRINKING.
HOWEVER...A 03/0556Z AMSU OVERPASS STILL INDICATED A VERTICALLY
STACKED WARM CORE THROUGH AT LEAST THE 250/200 MB LEVEL...AND THAT
IS THE JUSTIFICATION FOR MAINTAINING OPHELIA AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE
ON THIS ADVISORY.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS AN UNCERTAIN 055/37 KT...BASED ON
EXTRAPOLATION...CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE FIXES...AND A 03/0621 AMSR-E
MICROWAVE OVERPASS. OPHELIA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD THIS
MORNING AND MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE AVALON PENINSULA BETWEEN
ROUGHLY 10-12Z THIS MORNING. VERY COLD WATER BENEATH OPHELIA AND
INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 40 KT SHOULD RESULT IN
COMPLETE TRANSITION TO AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BY
18Z...IF NOT SOONER. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS DOWN THE MIDDLE
OF THE TIGHTLY PACKED NHC MODEL GUIDANCE SUITE...AND LIES CLOSE TO
THE GUIDANCE PROVIDED BY THE NOAA OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.

A 03/0027Z ASCAT OVERPASS INDICATED A LARGE SWATH OF 50-55 KT WIND
VECTORS IN THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OCTANTS OF THE CIRCULATION. GIVEN
THE KNOWN LOW BIAS OF THIS REMOTE SENSING INSTRUMENT...OPHELIA WAS
KEPT AS A 65-KT HURRICANE AT 06Z...AND IS NOW A 60-KT TROPICAL
STORM DUE TO THE LOSS OF CENTRAL DEEP CONVECTION IN THE REGION OF
STRONGEST WINDS NOTED IN THE ASCAT DATA. CANADIAN RADAR DATA FROM
THE AVALON PENINSULA INDICATE THE RAIN SHIELD AHEAD OF THE CENTER
IS MOSTLY STRATIFORM IN NATURE...FURTHER INDICATING THAT OPHELIA IS
UNDERGOING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. OPHELIA SHOULD CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN OVER COLDER WATER AND EVENTUALLY MERGE WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM
IN 24-36 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST AND FORECAST WIND
RADII ARE BASED ON GUIDANCE PROVIDED BY THE NOAA OCEAN PREDICTION
CENTER.

ADVISORY WIND RADII WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON A 03/0027Z ASCAT OVERPASS
AND SURROUNDING SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/0900Z 46.5N 54.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 03/1800Z 49.1N 48.4W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 04/0600Z 51.0N 38.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 04/1800Z 53.0N 28.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 05/0600Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[dkmac]

Crown:

[h=2]Strong Winds & Rough Seas Expected Along Florida’s East Coast From Late This Week Through This Weekend; Tropical Development Possible By This Weekend Somewhere Between The Florida Straits & The Western Caribbean; Two New Web Pages, A Earthquake/Tsunami & A Volcano Page, Added To The Crown Weather Website[/h]Rob Lightbown on October 3, 2011, 5:49 am

First off, I wanted to let you know that I have added two new pages to the Crown Weather Services website. It is a project that I have wanted to accomplish for the last couple of years and this past weekend I had some extra free time to work on them. I am very proud to announce that we now have an Earthquake and Tsunami page at http://www.crownweather.com/?page_id=6685 and also a Volcano Information Page at http://www.crownweather.com/?page_id=6686. Check them both out and bookmark them for frequent return visits to get the latest information about any earthquakes, tsunamis and volcano information. This is an ongoing work in progress, so any links that you know of that may be useful will be greatly appreciated. Just e-mail me those links at crownweather@gmail.com .
It appears that the weather will become quite “interesting” along the east coast of Florida from late this week through this upcoming Columbus Day weekend. An area of strong high pressure will anchor itself over the Mid-Atlantic and northeastern United States late this week and continuing into this upcoming weekend. This will lead to a lowering of barometric pressures from the western Caribbean northeastward into the central and northwestern Bahamas. The latest ensemble guidance of the GFS and European models, as well as the Canadian model is showing the potential of a broad area of low pressure to develop in the southwestern Caribbean as early as Thursday or Friday. The European ensemble model seems to hint that this low pressure system may develop into a tropical or sub-tropical storm as it tracks north-northeastward to near the Cayman Islands by about Sunday or next Monday and then near western or central Cuba around next Wednesday. The operational counterpart of the European model forecasts that the development of a tropical or sub-tropical storm may occur further north near Andros and Grand Bahama Island in the northwestern Bahamas on Sunday and then forecasts this potential storm to meander around south Florida right through the middle part of next week.
The GFS operational model develops the potential tropical/sub-tropical storm further offshore around next Monday and forecasts it to strengthen just off of the eastern North Carolina coast towards the end of next week, which then leads to the development of a second tropical/sub-tropical storm around October 16 or 17 which tracks across the northwestern Bahamas and right up the US East Coast as we get into October 18 and 19.
The pressure difference between any low pressure systems developing over the Florida Straits or the western Caribbean and this strong high pressure system over the Mid-Atlantic and northeastern United States will lead to strong easterly winds of 25 to 45 mph and very rough seas and riptides to develop across much of the Florida Peninsula starting late Thursday and continuing through this entire weekend. The strongest winds, heaviest rains and the likelihood of coastal flooding may be centered over central and northern Florida, roughly north of a line from Tampa to Vero Beach on Saturday, Sunday and Monday. These strong winds and heavy rains may then push northward into areas from South and North Carolina northward through the Mid-Atlantic states once we get into next Tuesday and next Wednesday.
So, everyone across the Florida Peninsula should be aware of the potential for several days of heavy rainfall, strong winds and coastal flooding & rip tides starting late Thursday and continuing right through this upcoming Columbus Day weekend.
The next tropical weather discussion will be issued by 7 am EDT/6 am CDT Tuesday morning.
Forecast Map From Thursday Through Next Monday:

---

[dkmac]

JM

[h=1]Weakening Tropical Storm Ophelia hits Newfoundland[/h]By Dr. Jeff Masters

Published: 9:15 AM CDT on October 03, 2011
A weakening Tropical Storm Ophelia passed over Southeast Newfoundland this morning, bringing tropical storm force winds and heavy rains. Ophelia's center passed over Cape Race at about 10:30 am local time, and that station measured sustained winds of 41 mph, gusting to 61 mph. Ophelia's highest winds were recorded at Sagona Island on the south shore of Newfoundland, where sustained winds of 53 mph, gusting to 59 mph, occurred at 9:30 am local time. The capital of St. John's received 0.94" inches of rain, and recorded a peak wind gust of 40 mph this morning. Ophelia's greatest rains at any airport in Newfoundland were 1.72" at St. Pierre. Ophelia is headed out to sea at 35 mph, and will transition to an extratropical storm this afternoon.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Tropical Storm Ophelia.

Tropical Storm Philippe no threat to land
In the middle Atlantic, Tropical Storm Philippe continues to struggle against dry air and high wind shear. Satellite loops show Philippe is a small system with modest heavy thunderstorm activity, with the surface circulation partially exposed to view by wind shear. Wind shear is a high 30 knots, thanks to the upper-level outflow from Ophelia. Shear will remain high through Tuesday, but may relax to the moderate range as Philippe turns towards the north on Wednesday. Philippe could become a hurricane in Wednesday or Thursday when the shear relaxes. It is unlikely that Philippe will trouble any land areas.

92L over the Azores no threat to develop for several days
Elsewhere in the Atlantic, an extratropical storm with plenty of spin but no heavy thunderstorm activity is located over the Azores Islands. This storm, designated Invest 92L by NHC this morning, is over cold waters of 22 - 23°C and under very high wind shear of 40 - 50 knots. 92L is not a threat to develop today and Tuesday, and is not being given any mention in NHC's tropical weather outlook. However, 92L could start to build some heavy thunderstorms by Wednesday, as it moves west-southwest and finds warmer waters and lower wind shear. The system is unlikely to threaten any land areas.

Tropical Storm Nalgae headed for Vietnam
In the Western Pacific, Tropical Storm Nalgae will be skirting China's Hainan Island on Tuesday and Wednesday, and will make final landfall over Vietnam on Wednesday afternoon. Nalgae is not expected to regain typhoon strength. Nalgae roared ashore over the Philippines' main island of Luzon as a super typhoon with 150 mph winds at 9 am local time on Saturday morning, and is being blamed for eighteen deaths. The typhoon dumped heavy rains of 4 - 8 inches across a large swath of Northern Luzon, on soils already saturated from the rains of Typhoon Nesat just five days previously. Typhoon Nesat killed at least 52 people in the Philippines and three in China.

Jeff Masters