TROPICAL STORM PHILPPE

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BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al902011.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201109231604
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 90, 2011, DB, O, 2011092312, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL902011
AL, 90, 2011092312, , BEST, 0, 96N, 210W, 20, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,

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[h=2]Atlantic Graphical TWO Area 1 closeup[/h]

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Return to Atlantic Graphical TWO
1. A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 400 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS...AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

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Don't forget to follow us on facebook and twitter for all breaking tropical weather info

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GIS data: .shp

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 PM EDT FRI SEP 23 2011 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA...LOCATED ABOUT 635 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. 1. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 385 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER DEFINED. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO INCREASING AND BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED...AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. $$ FORECASTER STEWART NNNN

[pullenr]

Exit Ophelia, enter Philippe?

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10% off FL now

[dkmac]

5AM Now TD 17

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVENTEEN ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172011
500 AM AST SAT SEP 24 2011

...ANOTHER DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.7N 25.2W
ABOUT 290 MI...465 KM S OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
SEVENTEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 25.2
WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 15 MPH...24
KM/H. A MOTION GENERALLY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH A GRADUAL
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND THE
DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVENTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172011
500 AM AST SAT SEP 24 2011

THE SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS HAS DEVELOPED ENOUGH ORGANIZED CONVECTION TO BE
CONSIDERED A TROPICAL CYCLONE. MICROWAVE DATA FROM TRMM AND AMSR-E
OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS SHOWED DISTINCT CURVED BANDS...AND EARLY
MORNING VISIBLE IMAGES SUGGEST THAT THE CENTER IS WELL EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE CLOUD CANOPY. AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS INDICATED THAT THE
SYSTEM WAS CLOSED...AND HAD WINDS OF ABOUT 30 KT...SO THAT WILL BE
THE INITIAL INTENSITY. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE
FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE THE
DEPRESSION IS OVER WARM WATERS WITH LIGHT SHEAR. AFTER THAT TIME...
THE CYCLONE COULD WEAKEN SOMEWHAT DUE TO INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY
SHEAR FROM A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
OCEAN AND DECREASING SSTS. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS ON THE
CONSERVATIVE SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...BUT FOLLOWS THE TREND
OF THE LGEM MODEL.

BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/12. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO
THE NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN...WHICH SHOULD
CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND
NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE TURNS THE
SYSTEM MORE TOWARD THE NORTH BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD DUE
TO A STRONG MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. FOR NOW...MOST OF THE RELIABLE
GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE TROUGH STAYING FAR ENOUGH AWAY FROM THE
DEPRESSION TO AVOID RECURVATURE...AND THE NHC FORECAST IS ON THE
LEFT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND NOT TOO FAR FROM THE ECMWF
MODEL.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/0900Z 10.7N 25.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 24/1800Z 11.1N 27.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 25/0600Z 11.8N 29.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 25/1800Z 12.7N 31.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 26/0600Z 13.7N 33.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 27/0600Z 16.0N 35.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 28/0600Z 18.0N 37.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 29/0600Z 20.0N 39.5W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[HoumaLA_WXguy]

Tail end of the front?

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4AM

00
WTNT42 KNHC 240858
TCDAT2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVENTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172011
500 AM AST SAT SEP 24 2011

THE SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS HAS DEVELOPED ENOUGH ORGANIZED CONVECTION TO BE
CONSIDERED A TROPICAL CYCLONE. MICROWAVE DATA FROM TRMM AND AMSR-E
OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS SHOWED DISTINCT CURVED BANDS...AND EARLY
MORNING VISIBLE IMAGES SUGGEST THAT THE CENTER IS WELL EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE CLOUD CANOPY. AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS INDICATED THAT THE
SYSTEM WAS CLOSED...AND HAD WINDS OF ABOUT 30 KT...SO THAT WILL BE
THE INITIAL INTENSITY. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE
FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE THE
DEPRESSION IS OVER WARM WATERS WITH LIGHT SHEAR. AFTER THAT TIME...
THE CYCLONE COULD WEAKEN SOMEWHAT DUE TO INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY
SHEAR FROM A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
OCEAN AND DECREASING SSTS. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS ON THE
CONSERVATIVE SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...BUT FOLLOWS THE TREND
OF THE LGEM MODEL.

BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/12. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO
THE NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN...WHICH SHOULD
CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND
NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE TURNS THE
SYSTEM MORE TOWARD THE NORTH BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD DUE
TO A STRONG MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. FOR NOW...MOST OF THE RELIABLE
GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE TROUGH STAYING FAR ENOUGH AWAY FROM THE
DEPRESSION TO AVOID RECURVATURE...AND THE NHC FORECAST IS ON THE
LEFT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND NOT TOO FAR FROM THE ECMWF
MODEL.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/0900Z 10.7N 25.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 24/1800Z 11.1N 27.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 25/0600Z 11.8N 29.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 25/1800Z 12.7N 31.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 26/0600Z 13.7N 33.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 27/0600Z 16.0N 35.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 28/0600Z 18.0N 37.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 29/0600Z 20.0N 39.5W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

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Have you entered our NCAA football contest ? It's not too late


http://www.hardcoreweather.com/showt...928#post314928


Now back to the tropics

[Alex]

Another hurricane slated in this exciting season!

at201117.gif

[dkmac]

5PM

TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172011
500 PM AST SAT SEP 24 2011

...DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE OVER THE FAR
EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.2N 27.9W
ABOUT 345 MI...550 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 27.9 WEST. PHILIPPE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/H. THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
EXPECTED ON MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172011
500 PM AST SAT SEP 24 2011

A CONVECTIVE BAND WRAPPING AT LEAST HALFWAY AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF
THE CYCLONE HAS DEVELOPED SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY. AS RESULT...THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 35 KT...WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH
THE 18Z TAFB DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.5/35 KT.
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS GOOD TO FAIR IN ALL QUADRANTS AND HAS BEEN
SLOWLY IMPROVING.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/12. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK REASONING. PHILIPPE IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A STRONG
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE. BY 48-72
HOURS...A BREAK IN THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 40-45W
LONGITUDE AS A LARGE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DIGS SOUTHEASTWARD
OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLANTIC. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN
PHILIPPE SLOWING DOWN AND GRADUALLY TURNING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST...
AND THEN TOWARD THE NORTH. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WAS NUDGED
SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK DUE TO THE MORE WESTWARD
INITIAL POSITION...AND IS SIMILAR TO THE CONSENSUS MODEL TVCN.

THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR PHILIPPE TO STRENGTHEN IS EXPECTED TO BE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO WHEN THE SHEAR IS THE LOWEST AND THE
THERMODYNAMICS ARE THE GREATEST. BY 72 HOURS...SOUTHWESTERLY
VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO ABOUT 15 KT...WHICH MAY
NOT BE ENOUGH TO SIGNIFICANTLY INHIBIT THE INTENSIFICATION PROCESS.
AS A RESULT...PHILIPPE IS EXPECTED TO REACH HURRICANE STATUS IN
48-72 HOURS...AND THEN LEVEL OFF SIMILAR TO THAT FORECAST BY THE
SHIPS AND LGEM STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL MODELS. HOWEVER...IT IS WORTH
NOTING THAT THE GFDL AND EXPERIMENTAL HFIP INTENSITY MODELS MAKE
PHILIPPE A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE BY DAYS 4 AND 5.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/2100Z 11.2N 27.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 25/0600Z 11.6N 29.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 25/1800Z 12.5N 31.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 26/0600Z 13.6N 33.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 26/1800Z 14.8N 34.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 27/1800Z 16.8N 36.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 28/1800Z 19.5N 38.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 29/1800Z 22.0N 39.0W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[dkmac]

5AM

TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172011
500 AM AST SUN SEP 25 2011

...PHILIPPE STRENGTHENS A LITTLE OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.0N 29.8W
ABOUT 410 MI...660 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 29.8 WEST. PHILIPPE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/H. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS...AND PHILIPPE COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY LATE MONDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172011
500 AM AST SUN SEP 25 2011

PHILIPPE HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS. THE CURVED BAND OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE HAS
WIDENED AND THE CENTRAL CONVECTION HAS EXPANDED AND DEEPENED.
SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS HAVE INCREASED AND
NOW SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KT. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING
OF THE CYCLONE IS LIKELY DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS PHILIPPE
REMAINS IN FAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS...AND THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST BRINGS PHILIPPE TO HURRICANE STRENGTH BY 48
HOURS. AFTER THAT...THE CYCLONE WILL BE ENCOUNTERING AN INCREASE IN
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AS IT MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS. THIS LESS
CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD CAUSE SOME WEAKENING BY THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ABOVE THE SHIPS AND LGEM
GUIDANCE BUT BELOW THE AGGRESSIVE GFDL MODEL.

THE TROPICAL STORM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 11 KT TO
THE SOUTH OF A NARROW RIDGE. THE MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD
AGREEMENT IN SHOWING THE RIDGE WEAKEN IN RESPONSE TO A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING ACROSS THE SUBTROPICAL EASTERN ATLANTIC.
THIS PATTERN WILL CAUSE PHILIPPE TO GRADUALLY TURN NORTHWARD OVER
THE EASTERN ATLANTIC IN THREE TO FOUR DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
IS CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND WAS NUDGED WESTWARD AT
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...TRENDING TOWARD THE GFS AND ECMWF
MODELS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/0900Z 12.0N 29.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 25/1800Z 12.8N 31.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 26/0600Z 13.9N 33.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 26/1800Z 14.9N 34.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 27/0600Z 16.2N 35.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 28/0600Z 18.5N 37.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 29/0600Z 22.0N 38.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 30/0600Z 25.0N 38.5W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI