TROPICAL STORM PHILPPE

[Alex]

Into dry air and curved by the continuing pattern. Nothing to see here.

Yup, rinse and repeat.

[dkmac]

5AM

TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE ADVISORY NUMBER 25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172011
500 AM AST FRI SEP 30 2011

...PHILIPPE CONTINUES NORTHWESTWARD WITH NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.9N 44.9W
ABOUT 1150 MI...1850 KM ENE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 44.9 WEST. PHILIPPE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION
IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE FOR MOST OF TODAY. A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED LATE
TODAY OR SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE TODAY...BUT WEAKENING IS
LIKELY TO BEGIN LATE SATURDAY OR SUNDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN


TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER 25...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172011
500 AM AST FRI SEP 30 2011

CORRECTED INITIAL MOTION

THE RECENT EVOLUTION OF PHILIPPE IS A BIT OF A MYSTERY. A COUPLE OF
RECENT MICROWAVE OVERPASSES INDICATE THAT PHILIPPE HAS A WELL-
DEFINED EYE FEATURE IN THE LOW LEVELS...SUGGESTING THAT THERE HAS
BEEN A NET INCREASE IN THE STRUCTURAL ORGANIZATION OF THE CYCLONE
DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE IMAGES
INDICATE THAT THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN OF THE STORM IS SOMEWHAT
CHAOTIC...WITH THE MAIN CLUSTER OF DEEP CONVECTION WELL TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER UNTIL RECENTLY. GIVEN THAT THERE HAS BEEN
NO APPRECIABLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL ORGANIZATION SINCE THE LAST
ADVISORY...THE INITIAL WIND SPEED ESTIMATE IS HELD AT 40 KT.

ALTHOUGH THERE HAS BEEN A RELATIVE RELAXATION OF THE SHEAR DURING
THE LAST 12-24 HOURS...PHILIPPE HAS NOT STRENGTHENED YET. HOWEVER...
THE BETTER ORGANIZED LOW-LEVEL STRUCTURE OF THE STORM WOULD SEEM TO
BE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME INCREASE IN STRENGTH WHILE THE SHEAR REMAINS
LOW. WITHIN 24-36 HOURS...WEAKENING SEEMS LIKELY AS PHILIPPE SHOULD
ENTER A REGION DOMINATED BY THE VERY STRONG UPPER-LEVEL
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE OUTFLOW OF OPHELIA.
ASSUMING THAT PHILIPPE CAN WITHSTAND WIND SHEAR OF THAT
MAGNITUDE...THERE COULD BE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME INTENSIFICATION
TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE NEW NHC INTENSITY
FORECAST IS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE IN THE SHORT TERM BUT A
BIT LOWER AFTER 36 HOURS...JUST BELOW THE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL
GUIDANCE.

PHILIPPE APPEARS TO BE MOVING NORTHWESTWARD OR 315 DEGREES AT 11
KT...BUT THE LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN EARLIER CENTER FIXES MAKES THIS
ESTIMATE SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW PHILIPPE BEING
STEERED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
SO ON THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL HIGH OVER THE
EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC. AFTER THAT...AN AMPLIFYING MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES SHOULD CAUSE
HEIGHTS TO RISE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WHICH...IN TURN...SHOULD
RESULT IN PHILIPPE'S TURNING WESTWARD. THE NEW NHC TRACK IS
BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND CONTINUES TO
FAVOR THE ECMWF SOLUTION ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE WHICH HAS A WEAKER VERSION OF PHILIPPE. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS WELL TO THE LEFT OF MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AT LATER
TIMES SINCE MOST OF THE MODELS ASSUME A STRONGER CYCLONE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/0900Z 21.9N 44.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 30/1800Z 22.9N 46.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 01/0600Z 23.9N 47.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 01/1800Z 24.5N 49.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 02/0600Z 24.9N 51.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 03/0600Z 25.1N 55.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 04/0600Z 25.0N 58.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 05/0600Z 24.5N 62.0W 35 KT 40 MPH

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN

[dkmac]

Crown:

[h=2]Major Hurricane Ophelia & Tropical Storm Philippe Are No Threat To Any Land Masses; I Think We Will See Tropical Cyclone Development In The Central Or Western Caribbean Between October 9 & October 18[/h]Rob Lightbown on October 1, 2011, 6:37 am


Tropical Storm Philippe is likely to be of no threat to any land masses. After tracking westward to west-southwestward from today through Tuesday, it appears that the storm will turn sharply to the northeast to the east of Bermuda during Wednesday and Thursday.
I still believe that we may see development in the Caribbean, particularly the western Caribbean, starting as early as next weekend. Strong high pressure is expected to build over New England late next week; these types of high pressure systems typically lead to much lower pressures in the Caribbean. In addition, the upward motion pulse of the Madden Julian Oscillation is forecast to move into the Caribbean between October 10 and October 15. Given the overall pattern recognition signs that are there, I think we will see tropical cyclone development either somewhere in the central and western Caribbean or the southern Gulf of Mexico and the central & southeastern Bahamas between October 9 and October 18.
Both the GFS and European model guidance are going back and forth regarding development in this area. Yesterday’s 12Z GFS model run indicated that tropical development may start occurring right around October 10 and 11 in the southwest Caribbean. This forecast system then festers in the western Caribbean near Jamaica and the Cayman Islands right through October 16. The latest 00Z GFS model run forecasts that a broad area of low pressure may develop in the southwest Caribbean between October 10 and October 12. This developing tropical cyclone is then pulled north-northeastward across Jamaica around October 15 and then is forecast to be near eastern Cuba by October 16.
As for the European model, yesterday’s 12Z model run forecasted that a broad area of low pressure is to develop over the southwest Caribbean next Saturday and the 12Z European model forecasts that this developing system is to become a fairly strong tropical cyclone by October 10 near western Cuba. The latest 00Z European model run backs way off and forecasts two areas of low pressure to develop between the southeastern Bahamas and the central and southwestern Caribbean in about 10 days from now. It should be pointed out that the European ensemble guidance points to a concentrated area of low pressure to develop over the western Caribbean just east of Honduras.
Additionally, the entire pattern of a strong ridge of high pressure moving into New England late next week is likely to lead to several days of strong easterly winds of 25 to 40 mph and rough seas along the entire east coast of Florida starting as early as Tuesday and continuing right through next Saturday or Sunday. The timeframe of the strongest winds and roughest seas look to be between Wednesday evening and early next Saturday morning. All of our Crown Weather friends along the east coast of Florida from Jacksonville to Miami should be aware of the potential for rip tides and the possibility of some coastal flooding given the length of time that there will be a strong onshore wind flow.

Forecast Map For Philippe:

Model Track Forecast For Philippe:


Model Intensity Forecast For Philippe:

Satellite Imagery Of Philippe:



Satellite Products Of Philippe From CIMSS
The next tropical weather discussion will be issued by 7 am EDT/6 am CDT Monday morning. No tropical weather discussions will be issued on Sunday.

---

[dkmac]

5AM

TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE ADVISORY NUMBER 33
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172011
500 AM AST SUN OCT 02 2011

...PHILIPPE TURNING WESTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.6N 50.8W
ABOUT 965 MI...1550 KM ESE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.32 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 50.8 WEST. PHILIPPE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H. A TURN
TOWARD THE WEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY...AND THIS WESTWARD MOTION
IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS
PHILIPPE IS AFFECTED BY STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 993 MB...29.32 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER 33
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172011
500 AM AST SUN OCT 02 2011

SINCE THE ASCAT OVERPASS AROUND 0100 UTC...WHICH INDICATED THAT THE
MAXIMUM WINDS OF PHILIPPE WERE NEAR 60 KT...THE OVERALL CLOUD
PATTERN HAS NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY. THEREFORE...THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS HELD AT 60 KT. PHILIPPE IS A STRONGLY SHEARED
TROPICAL STORM WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER LOCATED NEAR THE WESTERN
EDGE OF THE ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION. LATEST MICROWAVE DATA
INDICATE THE STRUCTURE OF THE INNER CORE...ALBEIT SHEARED...REMAINS
FAIRLY WELL ORGANIZED.

PHILIPPE IS GRADUALLY TURNING WESTWARD...AND THE LATEST INITIAL
MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/9. A GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION AT ABOUT THE
SAME SPEED IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE STORM
REMAINS ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. IN
THREE TO FOUR DAYS...A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH WITH A DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS. BEYOND THAT
TIME...A NORTHEASTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST IN RESPONSE TO AN
APPROACHING LARGE-SCALE TROUGH. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN
NUDGED TO THE LEFT THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...TRENDING TOWARD THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. AS MENTIONED IN THE LAST FEW DISCUSSIONS...
THERE REMAINS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AT THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD AS THE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE IS GREATER THAN NORMAL.

ALTHOUGH THE SHEAR IS ESTIMATED TO BE AROUND 40 KT...ACCORDING TO
THE SHIPS MODEL...IT HAS YET TO CAUSE PHILIPPE TO WEAKEN. THE
INTENSITY MODELS UNANIMOUSLY CALL FOR A GRADUAL WEAKENING DURING
THE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS AS THE SHEAR REMAINS STRONG. AFTER
THREE DAYS...HOWEVER...MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS PHILIPPE
RESTRENGTHENING AS THE SHEAR DECREASES. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT...
LIKE THE TRACK FORECAST...THE INTENSITY PREDICTION IS HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN. THE STRENGTH OF PHILIPPE AT THE LATTER FORECAST TIMES
APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH HOW THE CYCLONE INTERACTS WITH THE
APPROACHING TROUGH. THE ECMWF MODEL SHOWS A WEAK SYSTEM BECOMING
ABSORBED ALONG THE FRONT BY DAY 5. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE GFDL
MODEL SHOWS PHILIPPE STRENGTHENING TO A HURRICANE...PERHAPS DUE TO
BAROCLINIC ENHANCEMENTS. FOR NOW...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BETWEEN
THE EXTREMES AND FOLLOWS THE OVERALL TREND IN THE GUIDANCE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/0900Z 25.6N 50.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 02/1800Z 25.8N 52.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 03/0600Z 25.7N 54.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 03/1800Z 25.6N 56.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 04/0600Z 25.6N 58.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 05/0600Z 26.5N 61.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 06/0600Z 28.5N 61.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 07/0600Z 32.0N 56.5W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

[dkmac]

5AM

TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE ADVISORY NUMBER 37
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172011
500 AM AST MON OCT 03 2011

...PHILIPPE STILL MAINTAINING ITS STRENGTH DESPITE BEING IN
HOSTILE CONDITIONS...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.8N 54.9W
ABOUT 745 MI...1205 KM SE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 54.9 WEST. PHILIPPE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H. A WESTWARD TO WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY...FOLLOWED
BY A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.

TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER 37
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172011
500 AM AST MON OCT 03 2011

THE STRUCTURE OF PHILIPPE HAS CHANGED LITTLE DURING THE LAST SEVERAL
HOURS. MICROWAVE DATA INDICATE THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE CONVECTIVE MASS...WHICH HAS
EXPANDED SLIGHTLY DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. AN ASCAT OVERPASS JUST
AFTER 0000 UTC INDICATED THAT MAXIMUM WINDS WERE AROUND 45 KT. THE
LATEST DVORAK CI NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE ALSO 45 KT...
THEREFORE...THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS HELD AT THAT VALUE.

THE SHIPS MODEL INDICATES THAT ABOUT 30 KT OF NORTHERLY SHEAR IS
CURRENTLY AFFECTING PHILIPPE. HOWEVER...AS MENTIONED IN THE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT THE SHEAR IS
PRIMARILY IN THE HIGHER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE RATHER THAN
EXTENDING THROUGHOUT THE DEPTH OF THE TROPOSPHERE. THIS COULD BE
THE REASON WHY PHILIPPE HAS NOT WEAKENED SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE
PAST FEW DAYS DESPITE BEING IN ANALYZED SHEAR OF 30 KT OR HIGHER.
NONETHELESS...THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO LESSEN IN THE 36-72 HOUR
TIME FRAME...AND THAT COULD ALLOW THE TROPICAL STORM TO STRENGTHEN.
BEYOND A FEW DAYS...SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS ANTICIPATED TO INCREASE
SIGNIFICANTLY AND SHOULD INDUCE WEAKENING. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
IS ONCE AGAIN NEAR THE INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS AND IS A LITTLE
HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE.

PHILIPPE APPEARS TO NOW BE MOVING A LITTLE SOUTH OF DUE WEST...AND
THE LATEST INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 265/10. THIS GENERAL MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AS THE STORM
REMAINS TO THE SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE. THEREAFTER...THE RIDGE
IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN IN RESPONSE TO A LARGE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS SHOULD CAUSE PHILIPPE TO GRADUALLY TURN
NORTHWARD IN 48 TO 72 HOURS...AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD IN THE THREE TO
FIVE DAY TIME PERIOD. ALTHOUGH THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
THE EVOLUTION OF THE LARGE-SCALE FLOW PATTERN...THERE REMAINS
CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN THE TRACK GUIDANCE FOR PHILIPPE. THIS SPREAD
IS IN PART DUE TO THE DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH OF PHILIPPE IN
THE MODELS. IN GENERAL...THE GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED A LITTLE FASTER AT
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AND THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST HAS
FOLLOWED SUIT.

THE 34-KT WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED
ASCAT PASS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/0900Z 25.8N 54.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 03/1800Z 25.6N 56.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 04/0600Z 25.5N 58.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 04/1800Z 25.8N 60.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 05/0600Z 26.5N 61.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 06/0600Z 28.3N 60.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 07/0600Z 30.5N 57.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 08/0600Z 33.0N 52.5W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

[dkmac]

Crown:

[h=2]Strong Winds & Rough Seas Expected Along Florida’s East Coast From Late This Week Through This Weekend; Tropical Development Possible By This Weekend Somewhere Between The Florida Straits & The Western Caribbean; Two New Web Pages, A Earthquake/Tsunami & A Volcano Page, Added To The Crown Weather Website[/h]Rob Lightbown on October 3, 2011, 5:49 am

First off, I wanted to let you know that I have added two new pages to the Crown Weather Services website. It is a project that I have wanted to accomplish for the last couple of years and this past weekend I had some extra free time to work on them. I am very proud to announce that we now have an Earthquake and Tsunami page at http://www.crownweather.com/?page_id=6685 and also a Volcano Information Page at http://www.crownweather.com/?page_id=6686. Check them both out and bookmark them for frequent return visits to get the latest information about any earthquakes, tsunamis and volcano information. This is an ongoing work in progress, so any links that you know of that may be useful will be greatly appreciated. Just e-mail me those links at crownweather@gmail.com .
It appears that the weather will become quite “interesting” along the east coast of Florida from late this week through this upcoming Columbus Day weekend. An area of strong high pressure will anchor itself over the Mid-Atlantic and northeastern United States late this week and continuing into this upcoming weekend. This will lead to a lowering of barometric pressures from the western Caribbean northeastward into the central and northwestern Bahamas. The latest ensemble guidance of the GFS and European models, as well as the Canadian model is showing the potential of a broad area of low pressure to develop in the southwestern Caribbean as early as Thursday or Friday. The European ensemble model seems to hint that this low pressure system may develop into a tropical or sub-tropical storm as it tracks north-northeastward to near the Cayman Islands by about Sunday or next Monday and then near western or central Cuba around next Wednesday. The operational counterpart of the European model forecasts that the development of a tropical or sub-tropical storm may occur further north near Andros and Grand Bahama Island in the northwestern Bahamas on Sunday and then forecasts this potential storm to meander around south Florida right through the middle part of next week.
The GFS operational model develops the potential tropical/sub-tropical storm further offshore around next Monday and forecasts it to strengthen just off of the eastern North Carolina coast towards the end of next week, which then leads to the development of a second tropical/sub-tropical storm around October 16 or 17 which tracks across the northwestern Bahamas and right up the US East Coast as we get into October 18 and 19.
The pressure difference between any low pressure systems developing over the Florida Straits or the western Caribbean and this strong high pressure system over the Mid-Atlantic and northeastern United States will lead to strong easterly winds of 25 to 45 mph and very rough seas and riptides to develop across much of the Florida Peninsula starting late Thursday and continuing through this entire weekend. The strongest winds, heaviest rains and the likelihood of coastal flooding may be centered over central and northern Florida, roughly north of a line from Tampa to Vero Beach on Saturday, Sunday and Monday. These strong winds and heavy rains may then push northward into areas from South and North Carolina northward through the Mid-Atlantic states once we get into next Tuesday and next Wednesday.
So, everyone across the Florida Peninsula should be aware of the potential for several days of heavy rainfall, strong winds and coastal flooding & rip tides starting late Thursday and continuing right through this upcoming Columbus Day weekend.
The next tropical weather discussion will be issued by 7 am EDT/6 am CDT Tuesday morning.
Forecast Map From Thursday Through Next Monday:

---

[dkmac]

5AM

TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE ADVISORY NUMBER 41
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172011
500 AM AST TUE OCT 04 2011

...PHILIPPE CONTINUES TO SURVIVE AGAINST THE ODDS...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.6N 58.3W
ABOUT 720 MI...1160 KM SE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 58.3 WEST. PHILIPPE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H BUT IT IS FORECAST
TO SLOW DOWN AND TURN TO THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND
PHILIPPE COULD BECOME A HURRICANE ON WEDNESDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA


TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER 41
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172011
500 AM AST TUE OCT 04 2011

PHILIPPE IS A RARE CREATURE. IT HAS AN EYE FEATURE IN BOTH
CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE DATA BUT DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH
CONVECTION FOR THE SUBJECTIVE DVORAK T-NUMBERS TO INDICATE
HURRICANE STRENGTH. IN FACT...THESE ESTIMATES YIELD TO LOWER WINDS
THAN EARLIER TODAY. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE UW-CIMSS SUGGEST THAT
PHILIPPE IS A HURRICANE. GIVEN SUCH UNCERTAINTY...THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 55 KNOTS AT THIS TIME. I WOULD LOVE TO
HAVE A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE TO REALLY KNOW THE TRUE INTENSITY OF
PHILIPPE.

THERE IS AN OPPORTUNITY FOR PHILIPPE TO STRENGTHEN SOME AS THE SHEAR
RELAXES IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND BEFORE IT BECOMES ATTACHED
TO THE SUBTROPICAL WESTERLY FLOW. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE
GUIDANCE TREND AND MAKES PHILLIPE A HURRICANE IN A DAY OR SO...BUT
THIS FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.

PHILIPPE HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST TRAPPED SOUTH OF
A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE . IT APPEARS THAT IT HAS NOW BEGUN TO
MOVE TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 9 KNOTS AS IT REACHING THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE. A LARGE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WITH ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT FRONT IS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND THIS
PATTERN WILL FORCE PHILIPPE TO SHARPLY TURN TO THE NORTHEAST OR
RECURVE IN ABOUT 48 HOURS. PHILIPPE MOST LIKELY WILL BECOME
EMBEDDED IN THE WESTERLIES AND BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE COLD
FRONT. THESE TWO FEATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE VERY CLOSE TO EACH
OTHER BY THE GLOBAL MODELS. THERE IS A MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
THE SHARP TURN TO THE NORTHEAST SINCE THIS IS THE TREND INDICATED BY
MOST OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE. HOWEVER...SOME OF THE PREVIOUS GFS RUNS
HAVE PHILIPPE MEANDERING JUST SOUTH OF THE COLD FRONT.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/0900Z 23.6N 58.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 04/1800Z 23.5N 59.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 05/0600Z 23.8N 61.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 05/1800Z 24.5N 62.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 06/0600Z 26.0N 62.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 07/0600Z 27.5N 60.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 08/0600Z 29.0N 56.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 09/0600Z 32.0N 51.0W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[dkmac]

5AM Philippe may become a hurricane today or tomorrow

TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE ADVISORY NUMBER 45
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172011
500 AM AST WED OCT 05 2011

...PHILIPPE COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE TURNING OUT TO SEA...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.7N 60.8W
ABOUT 580 MI...930 KM SSE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 60.8 WEST. PHILIPPE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/H. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH IS FORECAST BY THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED BY A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED BY LATE
THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED AND PHILIPPE COULD BECOME A
HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER 45
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172011
500 AM AST WED OCT 05 2011

PHILIPPE CONTINUES TO HAVE A SHEARED PRESENTATION ON SATELLITE
IMAGES...ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME EVIDENCE OF A VERY RAGGED EYE
OCCASIONALLY. DVORAK ESTIMATES ARE UNCHANGED FROM SIX HOURS
AGO...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 55 KT. MOST OF THE
GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT PHILIPPE WILL MOVE BENEATH AN UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS LATER TODAY...RESULTING IN A PERIOD OF LOWER SHEAR
LASTING FOR A DAY OR SO. ALL OF THE MODELS SHOW SOME
INTENSIFICATION DURING THAT PERIOD...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
FOLLOWS THAT SOLUTION...ALBEIT ON THE LOWER END OF THE GUIDANCE
SPECTRUM BELOW THE MODEL CONSENSUS. AFTER THAT TIME...
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE DUE TO A LARGE
TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. USUALLY A MORE SIGNIFICANT
WEAKENING WOULD BE CALLED FOR WITH SUCH STRONG SHEAR...BUT ONLY A
MINOR DECREASE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DUE TO SIGNIFICANT
BAROCLINIC FORCING. EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS EXPECTED BY DAY
4...AND IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT MOST OF THE GLOBAL GUIDANCE EVEN
HAVE PHILIPPE EXTRATROPICAL NEAR DAY 3 IN THE LATEST RUNS...BUT I
DID NOT WANT TO SHOW SUCH A LARGE CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST.

SOME COARSE AMSU DATA SUGGEST THAT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS MOVING AT
300/5...ABOUT THE SAME AS PREVIOUS. A RELATIVELY SHARP TURN TO THE
NORTH AND NORTHEAST IS LIKELY WITHIN A DAY OR SO DUE TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS TROUGH
SHOULD ALSO CAUSE PHILIPPE TO MOVE AT AN INCREASING PACE BY LATE
THURSDAY AS THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS STEERED BY THE STRONGER
MID-LATITUDE FLOW. THE NEW FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS
ONE...BUT IS A BIT FASTER TO ACCOUNT FOR RECENT MODEL TRENDS. THE
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION APPEARS TO BE A DIFFICULT ONE TO
FORECAST...WITH THE MAIN DISAGREEMENT BEING WHETHER PHILIPPE WILL
BECOME THE MAIN NON-TROPICAL LOW OR BECOME ABSORBED INTO THE LARGER
EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE. GIVEN THE SMALL SIZE OF PHILIPPE...THE NHC
FORECAST WILL GO WITH THE ABSORBED SCENARIO.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/0900Z 24.7N 60.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 05/1800Z 25.3N 61.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 06/0600Z 26.5N 61.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 06/1800Z 27.8N 60.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 07/0600Z 28.9N 58.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 08/0600Z 31.5N 52.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 09/0600Z 38.0N 46.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 10/0600Z...ABSORBED

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[dkmac]

5AM

TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE ADVISORY NUMBER 49
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172011
500 AM AST THU OCT 06 2011

...PHILIPPE ALMOST A HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.8N 60.6W
ABOUT 455 MI...735 KM SE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.26 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 60.6 WEST. PHILIPPE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
LATER TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 70 MPH...110
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. PHILIPPE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A
HURRICANE LATER TODAY BEFORE SLOW WEAKENING STARTS ON FRIDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 991 MB...29.26 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER 49
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172011
500 AM AST THU OCT 06 2011

PHILIPPE HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS WITH CONVECTION INCREASING NEAR THE CENTER AND A MORE
SYMMETRIC OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN. MICROWAVE DATA FROM EARLIER ALSO
SHOW THAT A LOW-LEVEL EYE FEATURE HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED...
THOUGH NOTHING RECENT HAS BEEN RECEIVED. A BLEND OF THE DVORAK
ESTIMATES FROM TAFB/SAB GIVES AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 60 KT.
FURTHER INTENSIFICATION SEEMS LIKELY WITH ONLY MODERATE
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND WARM WATER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT
DAY OR SO. THUS THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CONTINUES TO SHOW PHILIPPE
ATTAINING HURRICANE STATUS LATER TODAY...WITH WEAKENING COMMENCING
BY LATE TOMORROW DUE TO INCREASING SHEAR. EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION
WILL LIKELY START IN ABOUT 48 HOURS...AND BE COMPLETE BY DAY 3.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 030/7. PHILIPPE IS EXPECTED TO FURTHER
ACCELERATE TODAY AHEAD OF A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE COLD FRONT OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE TRACK GUIDANCE
REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE CYCLONE WILL MOVE GENERALLY TO
THE NORTHEAST OR EAST-NORTHEAST WITH SOME ACCELERATION AS A
TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE NEW FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE
PREVIOUS ONE THROUGH 48 HOURS. THE MODELS ARE IN MUCH POORER
AGREEMENT DURING THE EXTRATROPICAL PORTION OF THE TRACK...AND THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO GUIDANCE RECEIVED FROM THE OCEAN
PREDICTION CENTER IN THE LATER PERIODS...WHICH RESULTS IN A SLOWER
FORECAST THAN PREVIOUS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/0900Z 26.8N 60.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 06/1800Z 27.8N 59.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 07/0600Z 28.8N 58.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 07/1800Z 29.7N 55.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 08/0600Z 31.2N 51.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 09/0600Z 38.0N 45.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 10/0600Z 42.0N 42.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 11/0600Z 49.0N 38.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[Joe-Nathan]

The never ending storm continues......................................... .........

[dkmac]

11AM Philippe now a hurricane

HURRICANE PHILIPPE ADVISORY NUMBER 50
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172011
1100 AM AST THU OCT 06 2011

...PHILIPPE BECOMES A HURRICANE...BUT REMAINS NO THREAT TO LAND...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.8N 60.0W
ABOUT 425 MI...680 KM SE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PHILIPPE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 60.0 WEST. PHILIPPE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H...AND THE
CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AT A FASTER
FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 80 MPH...130
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. PHILIPPE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME WEAKENING IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85
MILES...140 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 985 MB...29.09 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA/PASCH

HURRICANE PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER 50
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172011
1100 AM AST THU OCT 06 2011

AFTER 49 PREVIOUS ADVISORIES...OVER TWELVE DAYS...PHILIPPE HAS
FINALLY BECOME A HURRICANE. A 1009Z SSM/IS MICROWAVE IMAGE
FROM FNMOC SHOWS AN EYE-LIKE FEATURE...WHILE GEOSTATIONARY
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A SYMMETRIC COLD CLOUD COVER WITH AN
EYE PERHAPS BECOMING VISIBLE. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM
TAFB AND SAB ARE AT 4.5 AND 4.0... RESPECTIVELY...AND THE CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE SPLITS THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE TWO.
THE INTENSITY IS SET AT 70 KT AT ADVISORY TIME.

PHILIPPE IS BEING STEERED TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AT ABOUT 8
KT...PRIMARILY DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGE DEEP-LAYER
EXTRATROPICAL LOW CENTERED OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON AN ACCELERATION
OF PHILIPPE GENERALLY TOWARD THE NORTHEAST DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. THE TRACK PREDICTION IS VERY CLOSE TO BOTH THE CONSENSUS AND
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

WHILE PHILIPPE HAS REACHED HURRICANE INTENSITY...THIS PEAK WILL
LIKELY BE SHORT-LIVED. AS THE CYCLONE MOVES CLOSER TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED EXTRATROPICAL LOW...THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR SHOULD
INCREASE DRASTICALLY WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SO WHILE THE SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN WARM UNDER THE TRACK OF PHILIPPE FOR
THE NEXT TWO DAYS OR SO...THE COMBINED EFFECT OF SHEAR AND PERHAPS
ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR INTO THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE SHOULD LEAD
TO GRADUAL WEAKENING. THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS
IS BASED UPON THE LGEM AND SHIPS STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL INTENSITY
MODELS...AS THE PURELY DYNAMICAL HURRICANE GUIDANCE APPEARS TO BE
UNREALISTICALLY IMPERVIOUS TO THE MORE HOSTILE CONDITIONS AND
CONSEQUENTLY CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY THE HURRICANE. AROUND 48
HOURS...EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION SHOULD OCCUR AS A COLD FRONT WRAPS
AROUND THE CYCLONE. IT IS NOTED THAT THE FSU CYCLONE PHASE SPACE
ANALYSES SUGGEST THAT THE SYSTEM COULD BECOME EXTRATROPICAL AS
EARLY AS TOMORROW...THOUGH THIS WOULD APPEAR TO BE TOO QUICK A
TRANSITION.

THE EXTRATROPICAL PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS BASED PRIMARILY ON
GUIDANCE FROM THE OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/1500Z 27.8N 60.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 07/0000Z 28.6N 59.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 07/1200Z 29.6N 56.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 08/0000Z 31.0N 53.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 08/1200Z 33.4N 49.3W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 09/1200Z 39.5N 45.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 10/1200Z 45.0N 41.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 11/1200Z 51.5N 37.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA/PASCH

[dkmac]

5AM

HURRICANE PHILIPPE ADVISORY NUMBER 53
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172011
500 AM AST FRI OCT 07 2011

...PHILIPPE MOVING A LITTLE FASTER TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.6N 56.3W
ABOUT 535 MI...865 KM ESE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 65 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...978 MB...28.88 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PHILIPPE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 56.3 WEST. PHILIPPE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/H...AND THIS
MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE TODAY WITH A TURN BACK TOWARD THE NORTHEAST
ON SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. PHILIPPE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN TODAY...
AND PHILLIPE IS FORECAST TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL IN A DAY OR TWO.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90
MILES...150 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 978 MB...28.88 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

HURRICANE PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER 53
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172011
500 AM AST FRI OCT 07 2011

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT ALTHOUGH DEEP CONVECTION HAS
DECREASED SOME...THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN HAS NOT CHANGED VERY
MUCH DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THERE IS STILL AN EYE ON
MICROWAVE DATA. SUBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB REMAIN NEAR
4.5 ON THE DVORAK SCALE...AND THE OBJECTIVE NUMBERS FROM CIMSS ARE
A LITTLE BIT HIGHER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 80 KNOTS.
THE HURRICANE SHOULD SOON BEGIN TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT
ENCOUNTERS INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND COOLER WATERS.
PHILIPPE IS EXPECTED TO INTERACT WITH A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM AND
BECOME POST-TROPICAL IN 48 HOURS OR EARLIER.

PHILIPPE HAS INCREASED ITS FORWARD SPEED AND IS MOVING TOWARD THE
EAST-NORTHEAST OR 065 DEGREES AT 15 KNOTS. THE CYCLONE IS EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE MID-LATITUDE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...AND AS THE FRONTAL
SYSTEM APPROACHES...PHILLIPE SHOULD FURTHER INCREASE ITS FORWARD
SPEED. A TURN MORE TO THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED AS PHILIPPE BECOMES
AN OCCLUDED CYCLONE OR BECOMES ABSORBED BY A LARGER CYCLONE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT. THE FORECAST DURING THE POST-
TROPICAL STAGE OF PHILIPPE WAS PROVIDED BY THE OCEAN PREDICTION
CENTER.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/0900Z 29.6N 56.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 07/1800Z 30.5N 54.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 08/0600Z 32.5N 50.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 08/1800Z 36.0N 46.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 09/0600Z 40.0N 45.5W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 10/0600Z 44.0N 41.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 11/0600Z 51.0N 36.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 12/0600Z 61.0N 30.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[dkmac]

Final advisory:

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE PHILIPPE ADVISORY NUMBER 60
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172011
1100 PM AST SAT OCT 08 2011

...PHILIPPE IS NOW A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE...THIS IS THE LAST
ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...38.4N 43.9W
ABOUT 915 MI...1475 KM W OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 35 MPH...56 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE
PHILIPPE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 38.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 43.9 WEST.
THE CYCLONE IS MOVING QUICKLY TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 35
MPH...56 KM/H. THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. A GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB...29.15 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON PHILIPPE. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI