INVEST 91L FL

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Return to Atlantic Graphical TWO
1. DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE...IF ANY...SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES GENERALLY NORTHWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

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Return to Atlantic Graphical TWO
1. DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE...IF ANY...SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES GENERALLY NORTHWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

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Recon

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1145 AM EDT SAT 24 SEPTEMBER 2011
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 25/1100Z TO 26/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2011
TCPOD NUMBER.....11-116

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 25/1800Z
B. AFXXX 0416A OPHELIA
C. 25/1630Z
D. 20.4N 59.8W
E. 25/1700Z TO 25/2100Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

2. SUSPECT AREA (NEAR NORTHERN BAHAMAS)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 72
A. 25/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01JJA INVEST
C. 25/1400Z
D. 28.0N 78.0W
E. 25/1730Z TO 25/2130Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

3. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK:
A. 26/1800Z FIX FOR OPHELIA NEAR 22.3N 62.5W.
B. BEGIN 6-HRLY FIXES ON SUSPECT AREA AT 26/1200Z
NEAR 30.0N 78.0W IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.
4. REMARK: POSSIBLE P-3 RESEARCH MISSION INTO OPHELIA
DEPARTING AT 25/1400Z.

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30%

Click to unzoom Return to Atlantic Graphical TWO

1. AN ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS DEVELOPED JUST NORTH OF THE
NORTHERN BAHAMAS...OR ABOUT 175 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE
CANAVERAL FLORIDA. SATELLITE AND DOPPLER RADAR DATA INDICATE THAT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED...
AND SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE IS POSSIBLE DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR SO BEFORE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS BECOME UNFAVORABLE.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES GENERALLY
NORTHWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

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[pcbjr]

Humid, hot and with a blue tropical sky (mostly) here (Gainesville, FL).

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Humid, hot and with a blue tropical sky (mostly) here (Gainesville, FL).

I hear that the Tide will be high next week at the swamp

[pcbjr]

You all are doing quite well today!

We'll see about Swamp Time -

BUT

We could see you either way in Atlanta!

[dkmac]

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[pcbjr]

That glob over the Yucatan looks interesting if it comes off shore - circulation is all wrong and lots of dry air north but plenty of soup south, with an easterly drive in the GOM.

Half time football ....

[La Nina!]

From 30% to 0% I am telling you the season is over

[satx_pilot]

From 30% to 0% I am telling you the season is over

Why don't you go and sell some Chiclets for a little while and let your brother "El Nino" come out and play.