9/28/11 Deep South Severe Weather

[nightrider]

Maybe a little action for Joe..

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2211
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1210 PM CDT WED SEP 28 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN TX/SRN LA/SRN MS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 281710Z - 281915Z

SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS
STORMS DEVELOP/INTENSIFY WITH TIME. EVENTUAL WW ISSUANCE IS
POSSIBLE.

LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE AND RADAR LOOPS SHOW CONVECTION SLOWLY
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA...BOTH INVOF A SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARY NEAR THE SERN TX/SRN LA COAST AND ALSO FARTHER N INTO SRN
MS NEAR THE SYNOPTIC-SCALE FRONT. THE CONVECTION IS INITIATING
WITHIN A THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT FEATURING VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES
THROUGH A DEEP LAYER...AND A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER. THIS
COMBINED WITH DIURNAL HEATING IS YIELDING MIXED-LAYER CAPE VALUES
NOW AS HIGH AS 3500 J/KG FROM SERN TX EWD ACROSS SRN LA.

AS HEATING/DESTABILIZATION CONTINUES...AND AS A COMPACT UPPER
LOW/VORT MAX SHIFTS SEWD OUT OF OK INTO THE ARKLATEX
REGION...LARGE-SCALE ASCENT SHOULD INCREASE ACROSS THE DISCUSSION
AREA...SUPPORTING AN INCREASE IN BOTH STORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY.
WHILE PROFILER/VWP DATA AND MORNING RAOBS REVEAL MODEST FLOW ALOFT
-- AND THUS SHEAR VALUES GENERALLY UNSUPPORTIVE OF
SUPERCELLS...DEGREE OF INSTABILITY APPEARS SUFFICIENT TO OVERCOME
THIS LIMITATION AND YIELD AN INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND
LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WHILE WW IS NOT
IMMINENT...INCREASING POTENTIAL MAY EVENTUALLY WARRANT WATCH
ISSUANCE.

[Joe-Nathan]

Yes is could, but WOOOOORRRRRRRRRKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKK!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!!!


SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
133 PM CDT WED SEP 28 2011

LAZ044-045-052>054-281930-
LAFAYETTE LA-UPPER ST. MARTIN LA-VERMILION LA-ST. MARY LA-IBERIA LA-
133 PM CDT WED SEP 28 2011

..SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR LAFAYETTE...VERMILION
ST.
MARY...IBERIA AND ST. MARTIN PARISHES UNTIL 230 PM CDT...

AT 128 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER JEFFERSON ISLAND...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

* THE STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
COTEAU AND CADE BY 140 PM...
ACADIANA REGIONAL AIRPORT BY 145 PM...
ST. MARTINVILLE BY 150 PM...
NEW IBERIA AND LYDIA BY 155 PM...
LOREAUVILLE BY 205 PM...
JEANERETTE BY 215 PM...

THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM THIS STORM ARE FREQUENT LIGHTNING...PEA TO
NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 40 MPH...WHICH COULD DOWN
TREE LIMBS AND BLOW AROUND UNSECURED SMALL OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER IN A
SAFE HOME OR BUILDING UNTIL THIS STORM HAS PASSED.

LAT...LON 3016 9161 2981 9151 2988 9204 3006 9206

[Joe-Nathan]

But look at the action SW of Hattiesburg:




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[Joe-Nathan]

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 857
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
200 PM CDT WED SEP 28 2011

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA
A SMALL PART OF SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI
COASTAL WATERS

EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 200 PM UNTIL
800 PM CDT.

HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF BATON ROUGE LOUISIANA TO 50 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF GULFPORT
MISSISSIPPI. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN
COVERAGE/INTENSITY ALONG A FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM SRN MS INTO
SE LA...AND THE STORMS WILL SPREAD SEWD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
THOUGH VERTICAL SHEAR IS WEAK...STRONG INSTABILITY WILL PROMOTE A
RISK OF DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS AND LARGE HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST
STORMS.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 600. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 29020.


...THOMPSON

[Joe-Nathan]

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
226 PM CDT WED SEP 28 2011

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON

.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.

..REMARKS..

0206 PM HAIL 2 N VARNADO 30.92N 89.83W
09/28/2011 M1.00 INCH WASHINGTON LA LAW ENFORCEMENT

QUARTER SIZE HAIL FELL RAYBURN CORRECTIONAL INSTITUTE
ALONG HIGHWAY 21 NORTH OF VARNADO. NICKEL SIZE HAIL WAS
STILL FALLING.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
225 PM CDT WED SEP 28 2011

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON

.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.

..REMARKS..

0145 PM TSTM WND DMG COLUMBIA 31.26N 89.83W
09/28/2011 MARION MS PUBLIC

POWER LINES DOWNED. QUARTER SIZE HAIL REPORTED AT THE
SAME LOCATION.

[ROLLTIDE]

Just went into chase mode

[BAMAMAMA1964]

we got some hevy duty lighting and hard rain here in tc...CHASE CAREFUL ROLL..

[dkmac]

Dropped the temp here at the house from 88F to 70F in half an hour. Only a 1/4 inch of rain so far, but there's more coming from the West.

[Joe-Nathan]

All that I have gotten out of this is a outflow of about 17mph...

[Squirrelmonkey]

Great spout photo on Wlox

Sent from my HERO200 using Tapatalk

[Joe-Nathan]

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
650 AM CDT THU SEP 29 2011

.TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON  
   
.DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.  
  
            ..REMARKS..  
  
0628 PM     HAIL             4 N ALEXANDRIA          31.35N 92.45W   
09/28/2011  E0.50 INCH       RAPIDES            LA   LAW ENFORCEMENT   
  
            MARBLE-SIZED HAIL IN THE RIGOLETTE ROAD AREA OFF OLD   
            HIGHWAY 71 NORTH OF THE PINEVILLE AIRPORT  
  
0640 PM     HAIL             PINEVILLE               31.33N 92.42W   
09/28/2011  E1.00 INCH       RAPIDES            LA   PUBLIC            
  
            NICKEL TO MARBLE-SIZED HAIL REPORTED IN PINEVILLE.  
  
0705 PM     HAIL             10 S ALEXANDRIA         31.15N 92.46W   
09/28/2011  E1.00 INCH       RAPIDES            LA   TRAINED SPOTTER   
  
            DIME SIZE HAIL GREW TO MARBLE SIZE.  
  
0745 PM     HAIL             DEVILLE                 31.35N 92.16W   
09/28/2011  E1.00 INCH       RAPIDES            LA   AMATEUR RADIO     
  
            DIME TO QUARTER-SIZED HAIL  
  
0812 PM     HAIL             7 SW BOYCE              31.32N 92.75W   
09/28/2011  E0.88 INCH       RAPIDES            LA   CO-OP OBSERVER    
  
1238 AM     HAIL             OBERLIN                 30.62N 92.76W   
09/29/2011  E1.75 INCH       ALLEN              LA   PUBLIC