INVEST 93L

[dkmac]

From the N.O. NWS forecast discussion this morning:

IT APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE A RISK OF THE LOW OVER THE EASTERN
GULF POSSIBLY MORPHING INTO A HYBRID TROPICAL SYSTEM AS THE LOW
LINGERS OVER THE WARM GULF WATERS. GIVEN THE THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN
AS A COLD CORE LOW...ANY TRANSITION TO A MORE TROPICAL STATE WILL
BE VERY SLOW. IN ANY EVENT...THE SURFACE LOW SHOULD CONTINUE TO
GAIN STRENGTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WHICH WILL INCREASE THE EAST
AND NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. AMPLE MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE
TO WRAP INTO THE AREA ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE LOW...LEADING
TO HIGHER POPS FOR MONDAY. EXPECT SCATTERED CONVECTION TO AFFECT
AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 10...WITH ISOLATED POPS
FURTHER INLAND. THE ONLY REASON THAT POPS ARE NOT HIGHER IS DUE TO
THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE LOW AND THE TIMING
OF EVERYTHING COMING TOGETHER. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FROM SUNDAY TO TUESDAY AS WARM AND MOIST AIR
FEEDS INTO THE REGION.

This correlates with what Levi32, StormW, 28storms, and Rob Lightbown have been predicting for the last week or so.

[dkmac]

Crown:

[h=2]Tropical Or Sub-Tropical Development A Strong Possibility Starting This Weekend Between The Florida Straits & The Western Caribbean[/h]Rob Lightbown on October 4, 2011, 5:45 am

The global operational and ensemble model guidance continue to strongly hint at the potential for some sort of tropical or even sub-tropical development either in the western Caribbean, the eastern Gulf of Mexico or the Florida Straits & the Bahamas starting this upcoming weekend.
The latest GFS model forecasts that a storm system will form in the central and northwestern Bahamas on Sunday and Monday and forecasts this system to track north-northwestward along the east coast of Florida around the middle part of next week and eventually into South and North Carolina next Thursday or Friday.
The NOGAPS model forecasts the development of a tropical system in the southwestern Caribbean by about Saturday and forecasts this system to track right over Jamaica as a tropical storm on Sunday night or Monday morning. From there, the NOGAPS model forecasts this tropical system to eventually track into the Bahamas by next Tuesday as a tropical storm.
The Canadian model forecasts that this system will start out as a broad low pressure system just southwest of Jamaica on Friday. The Canadian model forecasts that this system will strengthen into a tropical storm along the south coast of Cuba on Saturday night and shows it tracking into the Florida Keys as a tropical storm on Sunday. The longer range Canadian model guidance forecasts that this system will track into the eastern and central Gulf of Mexico once we head into Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday of next week. The Canadian model then forecasts this tropical storm to loop around the Gulf of Mexico and pulls it through the Florida Keys for a second time next Thursday before tracking east-northeast into the northwestern Bahamas next Friday.
The European model forecasts the development of what looks like a sub-tropical storm in the Yucatan Channel on Sunday and forecasts it to track northward into the Florida Big Bend area next Tuesday with tropical storm force winds.
It should be pointed out that the upward motion values of the Madden Julian Oscillation are quite high from October 12 to October 18 and I strongly suspect that with the overall pattern of a strong high pressure system over the Mid-Atlantic and northeastern United States that we will see tropical development starting this weekend somewhere between the Bahamas and the western Caribbean.
I am going to lean a little more towards the ensemble members of the European and GFS models as they are performing pretty well with the consistency of the forecast of a tropical system developing starting this weekend. So, my thinking is that we will see development occur right along that stationary front that extends from the northwestern Bahamas west-southwest to the northwestern Caribbean and the Yucatan Peninsula. I suspect we will see an initially broad area of low pressure form in the western Caribbean on Friday and Saturday that winds up into a tropical storm in either the southeastern Gulf of Mexico or in the Florida Straits by Monday. From there, I think we will see a slow northward moving tropical storm that tracks across the eastern Gulf of Mexico just off of Florida’s west coast on Tuesday and Wednesday of next week.
It is looking likely that strong easterly winds of 25 to 45 mph and heavy rains will affect much of the Florida Peninsula and into Georgia starting on Friday and continuing right through this entire upcoming weekend and into possibly Tuesday and Wednesday of next week. Additionally the strong easterly wind fetch will cause very rough seas, riptides and coastal flooding along the entire Florida coast, both the east coast and the west coast of Florida. One analog that is being used for this potential system is the May, 2009 Gulf of Mexico storm that tracked westward across Florida from the Atlantic. This Gulf storm led to some severe weather and tornadoes across Florida and this is something that could be quite possible (severe weather with a tornado threat) across the Florida Peninsula this weekend.
So, everyone across the Florida Peninsula should be aware of the potential for several days of heavy rainfall, strong winds, coastal flooding, rip tides and severe weather with a tornado potential starting on Friday and continuing right through this upcoming Columbus Day weekend.
The next tropical weather discussion will be issued by 7 am EDT/6 am CDT Thursday morning. No tropical weather discussions will be issued on Wednesday.

[dkmac]

Levi32:

Fun and games begin this weekend and early next week as subtropical messiness may develop in the Florida area. This is due to a stalled-out front that is currently extending down into the NW Caribbean, trapped because of strong high pressure developing over the central United States. This high pressure will be shifting eastward gradually over the eastern U.S. during the next several days, generating a strong pressure gradient that will bring brisk easterly winds into Florida. High pressure building north of a stalled front is a recipe that can often result in home-grown tropical mischief, and this setup is what we have been talking about for weeks now. Here, however, development may be subtropical at least to start out with, due to the fact that the subtropical jetstream is flowing fairly far south right now over the northern Caribbean. This means that development of low pressure will be forced to occur underneath cold air aloft on the northern side of the jet, causing the initial system to be partially cold-core, the definition of a subtropical cyclone. With SSTs still 28-29C in the Florida area, such a situation could end up fairly unstable, and a subtropical low could deepen substantially. The ECMWF and CMC models both show pressures in the 990s or lower in the eastern Gulf of Mexico 6-7 days from now.


Whether we actually get true subtropical development remains to be seen. It may just be a broad mess of rain and wind, but with or without a storm, Florida and surrounding areas will likely be in for a nasty few days of weather. Subtropical development makes sense for an initial launch of this pattern, but it will likely not end there. As the MJO progresses towards our area of the world again in one of the strongest postures that we have seen in a long time, convective activity in the southern Caribbean will likely increase, eventually being able to force the subtropical jetstream back to the north and more out of the way, allowing room for true tropical development to occur within the western Caribbean. This may take place several days after our subtropical mess is gone, but the next couple of weeks will likely see another opportunity for development, perhaps of a more truly tropical nature than what we will be dealing with early next week.

[dkmac]

StormW:

Elsewhere, the pattern and development I have been repeating for over a week now, is somewhat of a complex situation, and had to be pretty much dissected in bits. I will clarify a little…the two Major models, GFS and ECMWF, on the recent runs, are pretty much all over right now on development. The current 500mb Mean Anomaly Departure indicates a very good probability of development in the GOMEX, with pressures lowering more than I’ve seen thus far.
500 MB ANOMALY MEAN DEPARTURE MAP

We have a stalled front that extends down into the extreme W. Caribbean and Bahamas right now. Given this potpourri, I am giving my best scenario on what could possibly take place:
A strong high is set to develop over the U.S. and progress eastward, albeit slow at first. This will bring in an easterly component toward the U.S. east coast. With the subtropical jet extending over the south, and lowering of pressure somewhat and initially over the Bahamas area, we could see what the models have been depicting as a hybrid low, or subtropical development, which could affect mainly the Florida east coast area, and possibly move northward into SC. Given the strong easterly flow, and ENE fetch over the Atlantic, the current Wave Watch model projects that seas/waves could be around 7-9 feet right along the Florida east coast…this would bring about some minor beach erosion and possible minor coastal flooding.
WAVEWATCH MODEL FORECAST

Next, once this possible subtropical entity clears the picture, with the high situated off the U.S. east coast, air and energy will begin to converge IVO the Caribbean and GOMEX. This will again, be combined with some of the strongest upward motion of the MJO (updated forecast pictured) in the Caribbean we’ve seen in a while. This will not only allow for moisture to increase, but allow for that lowering of pressure, and provide extra heat energy to the area. Once again, the Caribbean and some portions of the GOMEX are still retaining moderate to high amounts of TCHP. TCHP values of around 60-80+ are capable of sustaining a MAJOR hurricane, and also provide ample amounts of heat energy for Rapid Intensification.
GFS MJO FORECAST

THCP (Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential) MAPS



At the moment, the current update to the GFS shear forecast has totally flipped to a less favorable upper pattern for the Caribbean, vice the upper level anticyclone over the western portion. The current run has one centered more over the central to almost eastern portion. Based on this sudden change, I will be reanalyzing with the 12Z run update, in order to get an idea of what we COULD see toward mid month.
Regardless, during the next 10- 12 days, the GOMEX, Caribbean and southern Bahamas areas are going to need to be monitored.

[dkmac]

28storms video blog yesterday:

http://www.hardcoreweather.com/entry...t-Near-Florida

[ChessieStorm]

Tampa NWS Forecast Discussion on October 5, 2011

LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY)...
STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A STATIONARY BOUNDARY OVER THE FLORIDA
STRAITS. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS A GOOD POSSIBILITY. CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG
RANGE FORECAST AS THE GFS AND ECMWF GENERATE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ON THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND LIFT THE LOW
NORTHWEST TO WEST NORTHWEST...WITH DIFFERING SOLUTIONS ON HOW IT
COULD AFFECT WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. THE TAIL END OF A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS A VERY TYPICAL LOCATION FOR A TROPICAL SYSTEM TO
DEVELOP DURING THE MONTH OF OCTOBER. WITH THE HIGH DEGREE OF
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING IF A LOW DEVELOPS AND WHERE IT WOULD
EVENTUALLY TRACK...THIS AREA WILL HAVE TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS THERE WILL LIKELY BE CHANGES IN
MODEL SOLUTIONS FROM RUN TO RUN. REGARDLESS...STRONG EASTERLY FLOW
ALONG WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY GRADUALLY LIFTING NORTH WILL ADVECT
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK...SO WILL TREND POPS HIGHER. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN NEAR
CLIMATIC NORMALS TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATIC NORMALS.

[Joe-Nathan]

Glad you got this thread started. Didn't have time yesterday morning to start it before heading out to the marsh for work.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA

OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECAST BECOMES GREATLY DIMINISHED. THE GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO
SHOW A NW TO SE ORIENTED MID/UPPER TROF OVER THE SE U.S. AND A SFC
LOW DEVELOPING ACROSS CUBA/E GULF REGION. DISCREPANCIES ARISE IN
STRENGTH AND EVENTUAL TRACK OF THE SFC LOW...WHICH WOULD AFFECT
OUR REGION GREATLY WITH PRECIP CHANCES. FOR THE TIME BEING...CONTINUED
THE SLIGHTLY DRIER SOLUTION OF ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA
FOR SAT THRU MON...DIMINISHING FROM W TO E BY TUE. WITH THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASING REGARDLESS...INCREASE WINDS CAN BE
EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.

[ROLLTIDE]

http://www.hardcoreweather.com/blog.php

[dkmac]

JM

Wet subtropical storm possible for Florida this weekend

Posted by: JeffMasters, 10:29 AM CDT on October 05, 2011

+5

A large low pressure system with heavy rains is expected to develop over Cuba and South Florida on Saturday. The counter-clockwise flow around this low will bring strong winds and heavy rains to much of the Florida coast on Saturday, and these conditions will spread northwards to Georgia by Sunday and South Carolina by Monday. Most of the models develop this system into a tropical or subtropical storm, but the potential location of such a storm is still murky. The ECMWF model predicts the storm will form in the eastern Gulf of Mexico on Monday, then move north into the Florida Panhandle on Tuesday. If this track verifies, the oil rigs off the coast of Southeast Louisiana may experience a one or two day period of sustained winds above tropical storm force Monday or Tuesday. The GFS and NOGAPS models put the storm on the other side of Florida, over the Northwestern Bahamas, and predict the storm will move northwards and hit North Carolina on Wednesday. The UKMET model is in-between, developing the storm right on top of Florida. Since the storm is going to be getting its start as a cold-cored upper-level low pressure system with some dry air aloft, it will probably start out subtropical, with a large band of heavy rain developing well north of the center, bringing heavy rains to a wide region of the Southeast U.S. Subtropical storms cannot intensify quickly, due to their lack of an organized inner core. If the storm follows the path of the GFS model, it could be similar to Subtropical Storm Four of October 4, 1974. That storm brought 10 - 14 inches of rain to the east coast of Florida and strong onshore winds of 30 - 40 mph that caused beach erosion and coastal flooding. The extended forecast discussion from NOAA's Hydrometeorological Prediction Center has a more technical discussion of this coming storm for those interested.


Figure 1. Rainfall forecast for the 5-day period ending at 8 am EDT Monday, October 10, 2011. The storm system affecting Florida this weekend is expected to bring up to 7 inches of rain along the coast. Image credit: NOAA/HPC.

Tropical Storm Philippe no threat to land
In the middle Atlantic, Tropical Storm Philippe is about to interact with a frontal system and turn northeastward out to sea. Satellite loops show Philippe is a small system with a modest amount heavy thunderstorm activity, with the surface circulation partially exposed to view by wind shear. Wind shear will remain in the moderate range today, which may allow the storm to intensify into a hurricane, as predicted by several of the intensity forecast models. By Thursday, wind shear will rise to a very high 30 - 50 knots, which should cause rapid weakening. Philippe will not trouble any land areas.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Tropical Storm Philippe. The band of clouds to the northwest of Philippe is associated with a cold front that is expected to absorb the storm and recurve it to the northeast on Thursday.

Jeff Masters

[28storms]

[dkmac]

Crown

[h=2]A Tropical Or Sub-Tropical Storm May Affect Areas From Florida & The Bahamas Northward Through Much Of The Eastern Seaboard Of The United States From This Weekend Into Next Week; More Tropical Troubles Are Possible For The Western Caribbean & The Gulf Of Mexico Later Next Week Into Next Weekend[/h]Rob Lightbown on October 6, 2011, 5:43 am

As I have been mentioning over the past several days and actually the last couple of weeks is that I think we will see tropical or sub-tropical development in either the western Caribbean or in the Gulf of Mexico this weekend and this has the potential to affect much of Florida and the US East Coast with heavy rain, strong winds and rough seas starting this weekend in Florida and continuing into next week as this system travels up the US East Coast.
I am putting my money on the European ensemble guidance as it seems to have the best handle on the entire situation and also has the best run to run consistency. So, it is of my opinion that we will see a tropical or sub-tropical system develop somewhere between Key West, Florida and the western tip of Cuba on Saturday night or Sunday. This tropical/sub-tropical storm is then forecast to lift northward into the eastern Gulf of Mexico on Monday before it becomes entrained into a frontal system by about Wednesday and is lifted northeastward up the US East Coast late next week.
The GFS model’s forecast of a tropical/sub-tropical storm developing near Andros Island in the Bahamas on Sunday may be too far east in the development and the position of any tropical/sub-tropical storm seems likely to be closer to the Yucatan Channel. The latest Canadian model definitely will not be used as it forms two storms in the Gulf of Mexico and the western Caribbean this weekend into the first half of next week.
So, as I mentioned, I will be leaning strongly towards the European ensemble guidance. So in terms of weather conditions associated with this potential tropical/sub-tropical storm: It appears that strong winds and heavy rains will start affecting the east coast of Florida and the Florida Keys on Friday. On Saturday, I expect heavy rain with amounts of up 2 to 5 inches, strong winds of up to 30 to 40 mph with higher gusts and rough seas and possible coastal flooding is likely across Florida south of a line from about Punta Gorda and Fort Myers to Daytona Beach. This heavy rainfall and strong winds are expected to lift northward and affect central and northern Florida, as well as much of the central and eastern Gulf coast and parts of Georgia and South Carolina once we get into Sunday and Monday. These heavy rains and strong winds will then be pulled northeastward into the Mid-Atlantic states by Wednesday and the northeastern United States by Thursday and Friday.
The offshore waters of the Gulf of Mexico and the Atlantic ocean off of the Florida coast & the southeastern US coast are likely to receive tropical storm force winds starting on Friday night or Saturday and continuing until about Monday night or Tuesday morning.
If this weren’t enough, the long range European and GFS models are hinting that a second tropical cyclone may form in the western Caribbean towards the end of next week and into next weekend. The European model only goes out as far as 10 days or next Saturday, however, the GFS model goes out even further (16 days) and it shows this potential new tropical cyclone to sit and spin in the northwestern Caribbean near Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula from about October 15 until October 19. After that, the very long range GFS model forecasts this system to cross the Yucatan Peninsula on October 20 and 21, which is the end of that model guidance run. Looking at the forecast upper-air setup for October 21, it shows a upper level ridge of high pressure over the southeastern United States and a trough of low pressure over the western Plains and Rocky Mountains. Based on this, any system about to enter the Bay of Campeche would likely not be turned northward until it is in the western Gulf of Mexico. It needs to be emphasized that any forecasts further out than 7 days are pure speculation and a lot can change between now and then.
So, in closing, it appears that the tropics are going to heat up over the next couple of weeks with the potential for at least one of these systems threatening or impacting the US coast.
The next tropical weather discussion will be issued by 7 am EDT/6 am CDT Friday morning.
Rainfall Forecast For Today & Tonight:

Rainfall Forecast For Friday & Friday night:

Rainfall Forecast For Saturday & Saturday night:

Forecast Map From Sunday Through Next Thursday:

---

[Joe-Nathan]

SO IT IS EITHER GOING TO BE IN THE GOM OR EAST COAST OF FL/GA:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1122 AM CDT THU OCT 6 2011

BY SUN INTO THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK...THE ECMWF & GFS
CONTINUE THEIR DIVERGENT SOLUTIONS FOR THE SFC LOW DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE E GULF OR BAHAMAS. THE ECMWF SHOWS A MUCH WEAKER
BROADER LOW FURTHER WEST REACHING THE CENTRAL GULF BEFORE LIFTING
NE BY WED...KEEPING MOST OF THE PRECIP E OF OUR REGION. THE GFS
CONTINUES TO DEVELOP THIS FEATURE FURTHER EAST OVER FL AND THE
BAHAMAS...BUT KEEPING A LINGERING SFC TROF AND MOISTURE OVER THE N
GULF. THUS...WITH NO REAL SIGNIFICANT CHANGES THIS CYCLE...KEPT
THE LEAST POPS OVER C LA...WITH 20 TO 30% OVER SE TX/S LA AND
COASTAL WATERS FOR SUN AND MON.

[Windwatcher]

Yawn. I vote the hurricane season is over for us around the GOM.

[BAMAMAMA1964]

one more like lee and bring on winter I say!! snow chase...yeah buddy..:)

[Joe-Nathan]

Well this will screw up our October: 300 HOURS OUT (AKA VOODOO LAND):

gfs_wnatl_300_850_temp_mslp_precip_l.jpg

[Joe-Nathan]

BUT THIS IS WHAT THE CURRENT NWS DISCO IS REFERENCING:

gfs_wnatl_072_850_temp_mslp_precip_l.jpg

[dkmac]

20% chance develpment SE of Florida:

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SAT OCT 8 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM PHILIPPE...LOCATED ABOUT 865 MILES EAST OF BERMUDA...OR
ABOUT 1350 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES ISLANDS.

A BROAD SURFACE TROUGH INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS
PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND EXTENDING NORTHWARD OVER MUCH
OF CUBA...MOST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...AND ALL OF THE BAHAMAS.
GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS
POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWARD OR
NORTHWESTWARD. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...THIS DISTURBANCE WILL PRODUCE
STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE BAHAMAS AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[ROLLTIDE]

...

GIS data: .shp

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 800 AM EDT SAT OCT 8 2011 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE...LOCATED ABOUT 865 MILES EAST OF BERMUDA...OR ABOUT 1350 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES ISLANDS. 1. A BROAD SURFACE TROUGH INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND EXTENDING NORTHWARD OVER MUCH OF CUBA...MOST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...AND ALL OF THE BAHAMAS. GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWARD OR NORTHWESTWARD. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...THIS DISTURBANCE WILL PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. $$ FORECASTER STEWART NNNN

[ROLLTIDE]

...

[Smitter]

30% now Code Orange folks

Mother Nature giving it one last shot

"TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SAT OCT 8 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM PHILIPPE...LOCATED ABOUT 1215 MILES WEST OF THE AZORES.

1. A SURFACE TROUGH LOCATED FROM THE EXTREME NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA AND INTO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS IS PRODUCING
WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CUBA...MOST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE FLORIDA
KEYS...ALL OF THE BAHAMAS...AND ADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS. THE
TROUGH HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER DEFINED AND SURFACE PRESSURES ARE
SLOWLY FALLING. GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED
WEATHER IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OR
NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...
30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...THIS DISTURBANCE
WILL PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS DEVELOPING GALE AREA
CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
"