INVEST 93L

[pcbjr]

Attachment 11282

[dkmac]

[dkmac]

[pcbjr]

Feels like October should feel (even in Florida); breezy and not hot!

Now, is this "thang" going to do anything?

[pcbjr]

A Couple Reports and Observations:

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41009

http://www.wunderground.com/radar/ra...=9999&smooth=0

[someweather]

Right here, at the beach near Melbourne Fl, we lost lower right around 7pm. FPL says it will probably restored in the morning. At least thousands in my area lost power. Posting this thanks to T-mobile and a still surprisingly fast wifi tether... The winds were much stronger than when tropical storm Fay camped out here for two days, but it has been two days with a lot of rain and strong winds (enough for the rain to hurt your cheeks on a dune crossover). The waves were the highest and wildest I've seen here since 2004. Around town I've seen many ponds ready to or already overflowing. During the last 15 minutes the wind finally died down considerably.

They measured 62mph gusts, and I'm not surprised http://www.floridatoday.com/article/...sectionstories

The surprising part is that we really didn't get any type of warning for this. The automatic tv interruptor system warns just about for every summer thunderstorm, but I did not see anything for this, nor on the weather on tv... They warned us everywhere they could for Ernesto, and that was nothing more than a summer rainstorm here, but this was much worse, I would have been much more prepared with a 'hey guys there may be a bad storm coming'... Well, actually, there were some weather statements, but that was when the storm was already going on in full swing, not before it... Like a those GPS devices with 'traffic' that warn you about traffic you're either already stuck in, or is going to be gone before you get there...

Can't trust them not to scare us unnecessarily, and can't trust them to give us at least a heads up when something out of the ordinary like this this week-end is going to happen. Maybe it's time for a good old barometer and make my own predictions...

[OPHarbor]

From Vilano Beach, Florida; IMHO this should be classified a TS. Looks like a bomb has gone off in my neighborhood. Sustained winds of 40mph with gusts to 55 this morning, rain bands pelting the area, 5.5 inches of rain since Friday and it looks like the worst has yet to come. High tide @8 this morning should wash over A1A. It's tough to get a handle on beach errosion yet, but it would not suprise if a lot of sand is gone. I had to get to work early this morning, but hopefully I'll get home early to look at the damage.

[dkmac]

Crown

[h=2]Invest 93L Will Bring Strong Winds & Heavy Rainfall To The Coastal Carolinas, Eastern Georgia & Northern Florida Today; We May Have Invest 94L Develop Off Of Florida’s East Coast This Afternoon Or Tonight; Tropical Development Still A Possibility In The Western Caribbean As Early As This Coming Weekend[/h]Rob Lightbown on October 10, 2011, 6:59 am

Invest 93L & Maybe Invest 94L:
Invest 93L somewhere between Gainesville and Saint Augustine early this morning. Radar loops from the Jacksonville Doppler radar site indicates that the circulation with this storm was tracking generally west-northwestward. Satellite imagery shows a burst of convection right over the center with the latest imagery and it seems that the structure of this storm is more well defined.
Now, personally, I have to respectfully disagree with the National Hurricane Center not upgrading this to a subtropical storm last night. The center of this storm was over warm ocean waters, there was and still is organized convection near the center. Surface winds were more than tropical storm force and in fact there have been numerous reports of wind gusts in the range of 65 to 80 mph from the Treasure Coast northward to the First Coast of Florida. Granted, this storm was and is not totally warm cored, however, there is enough evidence to have declared this a sub-tropical storm yesterday.
At this point, Invest 93L is expected to remain inland and cross northern Florida this morning and then into Georgia this afternoon. I’m wondering if we may see another organized disturbance form about 100 miles or so offshore of Florida’s east coast this afternoon. The high resolution rapid refresh model (HRRR model) is hinting that an area of disorganized convection stretching from the central Caribbean northward through the Bahamas may spin off a low pressure system off of the east coast of Florida; in fact, both the radar imagery forecast & the wind field forecast both show a curly-Q signature of a developing low pressure system with 70 mph wind gusts with this developing low pressure system. So, it’s not out of the realm of possibility to see another Invest situation (Invest 94?) this afternoon into tonight.
The strongest winds and heaviest rainfall is now shifting into northeast Florida, eastern Georgia and the eastern part of the Carolinas. Rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches are likely today and tonight from southeastern North Carolina through much of South Carolina and eastern Georgia. The strongest winds today are expected from coastal areas of northeast Florida this morning northward through all of coastal Georgia throughout today and coastal South Carolina this afternoon with easterly winds gusting to 40 to 60 mph. Additionally, there will be the risk for isolated tornadoes this morning across northern Florida and southern and eastern Georgia. The isolated tornado risk will shift northward this afternoon into this evening into eastern South Carolina and eastern and southeastern North Carolina.
The heavy rainfall and strong winds are expected to shift northward into the Mid-Atlantic states during Tuesday and Tuesday night and then into southern New England, New York, Pennsylvania and New Jersey by Wednesday and Wednesday night.
Invest 93L Information


Model Track Forecast:



Model Intensity Forecast:

Hurricane Track Model Forecast Text
GFDL Model Forecast Text
UKMET Model Forecast Text
Hurricane Model Track Guidance Links From Allan Huffman
ATCF Images (Hurricane Track Models)
GFDL/HWRF Model Images
Satellite Pictures Of Invest 93L:



Satellite Products Of Invest 93L From CIMSS
Current Radar Imagery:




Rainfall Forecast For Today & Tonight:

Rainfall Forecast For Tuesday & Tuesday night:

Rainfall Forecast For Wednesday & Wednesday night:

Possible Tropical Development In The Western Caribbean Late This Weekend Through Next Week:
I am still looking at the possibility of tropical development in the western Caribbean as early as this coming weekend with both the European and European ensemble guidance being consistent on this development. As I mentioned yesterday, the feature that will initiate this tropical cyclone development appears to be a tropical wave which is about to track across the Lesser Antilles. This tropical wave will move into the central Caribbean by about Wednesday morning and the western Caribbean by about Friday and Saturday.
The European model forecasts the development of a tropical cyclone just southwest of the Cayman Islands on Saturday and forecasts this potential storm to track west-northwestward across the Yucatan Peninsula next Monday and Tuesday and then start turning more northeastward just north of the Yucatan Peninsula next Wednesday.
The European ensemble guidance also forecasts the development of a tropical cyclone in the western Caribbean on Saturday and forecasts this potential storm to slowly track northwestward across the northwest Caribbean right through next Wednesday when it will be approaching the Yucatan Channel.
As I mentioned yesterday, I think there is more than a reasonable chance for tropical cyclone development in the western Caribbean as early as this coming weekend and this is something that I will be keeping a close eye on and will keep you all updated.
10 Day European Model Forecast:

10 Day European Ensemble Model Forecast:

Satellite Image:

The next tropical weather discussion will be issued by 7 am EDT/6 am CDT Tuesday morning.

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[fl3chloe]

So that is what rolled in early this morning. We had quiet a show with lighting, winds and thunder. We are still under a tornado watch until 1 pm. This is such a great site. Our local forecast said to watch for heavy rain.

[ROLLTIDE]

[Gazelle2]

It looks like the CoC is very near Perry, Florida right now. The extreme western bands of precip are just starting to move into Okaloosa County but I don't think we are going to get very much at all today. If the Low keeps moving West or WNW, however, tomorrow might be a different story.

[Alex]

Hit some sprinkles in Baldwin County and again across the Cochrane Bridge in Mobile. Drove through drizzle from Escambia Bay to Navarre this evening. Otherwise just windy and cloudy.

[Alex]

From Jeff Masters' blog:

...now that Invest 93L has moved ashore over the Southeast U.S. Invest 93L did have tropical storm force winds, and will be re-analyzed in the off-season by NHC to see if it did indeed have enough organization to qualify as an unnamed subtropical storm.