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Tropical Development Still A Good Possibility In The Western Caribbean From This Weekend Into Next Week[/h]
Rob Lightbown on October 12, 2011, 5:42 am
The tropical Atlantic basin is quiet at the moment this morning; however, I still believe that there is still a fairly good chance of a tropical cyclone developing in the western Caribbean as early as this weekend and more likely during next week. The forecast for the Madden Julian Oscillation shows a upward motion pulse over the Caribbean and the Atlantic Basin right through the end of this month and this should create enough instability to pop off a tropical cyclone over the next week or two.
The global model guidance cannot agree on how this will happen with the GFS model forecasting a broad area of low pressure to develop very close to the coast of Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula over the next two to three days.
The GFS model forecasts that this low pressure system will meander around the Bay of Campeche and the far western Caribbean this weekend into much of next week and it does hint at it becoming a tropical depression or a weak tropical storm late Saturday or during Sunday and keeps it quite weak over the Yucatan Peninsula throughout next week before it is shoved into the Bay of Campeche late next week where it develops into a full-fledged tropical storm and is pulled northward into the northwestern Gulf of Mexico next Sunday (October 23) as a strong tropical storm or a Category 1 hurricane bringing tropical storm and hurricane conditions from Houston to New Orleans and the Mississippi coast. From there, this storm is pulled northeastward across the eastern United States as a strong extra-tropical storm between October 24 and October 27 and would bring heavy rain and strong winds from the southeastern United States to New England.
The European model shows how the evolution of this potential tropical cyclone may happen. It forecasts that the strong tropical disturbance now off of the west coast of Mexico may be pulled first eastward over the next two to three days and then pulled northward into the Yucatan Peninsula by Sunday and Monday where it develops a very broad area of low pressure over the Yucatan Peninsula. This broad area of low pressure is then sheared northeastward into a trough of low pressure over the eastern United States by Tuesday and Wednesday of next week bringing rain and strong winds to much of the eastern United States during the middle part of next week; however, this type of scenario would likely lead to no tropical development.
The European ensemble guidance is a bit different as it forecasts that some sort of concentrated area of low pressure will form in the far western Caribbean and the Bay of Campeche this weekend and meander around the western Caribbean throughout next week and not be picked up by that eastern trough of low pressure.
So, I do think that there is a very good chance for tropical cyclone development in the western Caribbean this coming weekend and it may hang around the western Caribbean throughout next week. Given the very progressive weather pattern across the United States, I think that this has the potential to be a very complicated forecast and it is way too early to tell how this potential system will evolve and what type of track it may take.
Satellite Image:
The next tropical weather discussion will be issued by 7 am EDT/6 am CDT Friday morning. No tropical weather discussions will be issued on Thursday.
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