INVEST 95L

[dkmac]

Crown:

[h=2]Watching The Western Caribbean Closely For Signs Of Tropical Development[/h]Rob Lightbown on October 14, 2011, 5:34 am

I am closely watching an area of disturbed weather in the western and northwestern Caribbean. There is an area of low pressure associated with this disturbed weather and satellite imagery this morning showed some deeper areas of convection about halfway between the Yucatan Peninsula and the Cayman Islands.
The NAM model continues to significantly develop this system into a tropical storm over this weekend and forecasts it to be in the extreme northwestern Caribbean by Monday morning as a 45 mph tropical storm. Models like the European model hints at the possibility of this system becoming more of a sub-tropical system over the weekend. The European model then forecasts this system to shear apart and be entrained into a strong trough of low pressure over the eastern United States around the middle part of next week. It seems that the European and most of the other global model guidance forecasts that this system is not able to focus the energy to spin up a tropical storm, while the NAM model does forecast this scenario.
Environmental conditions are somewhat favorable for development with an area of 10 to 15 knots of wind shear found over the extreme western Caribbean near Belize. The Madden Julian Oscillation is currently in a favorable phase right now and the ocean waters are more than warm enough to support tropical development. Since, environmental conditions are forecast to remain somewhat favorable for development, I think there is a fairly good chance that we will see tropical development in the western and northwestern Caribbean this weekend into early next week. It likely will not be as strong as the NAM model forecasts, however, I think a solution that is a little stronger than the European model seems more likely.
This system, even if it does not develop, will bring very heavy rainfall to Central America, central and western Cuba, Belize, the Yucatan Peninsula and the Cayman Islands from today through this weekend. This heavy rainfall will bring the likelihood of flash floods and mudslides to all of these areas.
I will be monitoring the western Caribbean very closely right through this weekend and I will keep you all updated on the latest.
Satellite Image:

NAM Model Forecast For Saturday Morning:

NAM Model Forecast For Sunday Morning:

NAM Model Forecast For Sunday Evening:

The next tropical weather discussion will be issued sometime on Saturday morning.

---

2. DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHWESTERNCARIBBEAN SEA ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA. SOMESLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE AS IT DRIFTS TO THENORTHWEST. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMINGA TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINSWILL LIKELY CONTINUE OVER A LARGE PORTION OF CENTRAL AMERICA...CUBAAND ADJACENT ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...RESULTING INLIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

[pullenr]

[pullenr]

NWS Miami

MODELS HAVE BEEN HINTING AT AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA THE LATTER HALF OF THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS
IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD...WITH MOISTURE SURGING BACK
INTO AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION (PWATS AOB 2
INCHES). MODELS DISAGREE ON DEVELOPMENT AND MOVEMENT OF THE
SYSTEM NEAR THE YUCATAN. THE GFS TAKES LOW PRESSURE INTO THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE AND THE ECMWF KEEPS THE SYSTEM OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND
SLOWLY MOVES THE SYSTEM NORTH. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...RAINFALL
CHANCES WILL INCREASE THROUGH MIDWEEK...ESPECIALLY FOR THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION. IF THE DISTURBANCE STAYS IN THE
CARIBBEAN AND MOVES NORTH AS SHOWN BY THE ECMWF AND NAM...SOUTH
FLORIDA COULD SEE A PROLONGED RAIN/HEAVY RAIN EVENT MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY OVER THE SAME REGIONS THAT RECENTLY RECEIVED 6
TO OVER 10 INCHES OF RAIN. KEPT POPS 40-50 PERCENT FOR NOW SINCE
THERE IS A LOT OF DISAGREEMENT...BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY
MONITORED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

[ROLLTIDE]

20%

Return to Atlantic Graphical TWO
2. DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE AS IT DRIFTS TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR NORTH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE OVER A LARGE PORTION OF CENTRAL AMERICA...CUBA AND ADJACENT ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...RESULTING IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

[dkmac]

JM

[h=1]flood its most expensive in history; Western Caribbean disturbance develops[/h]

By Dr. Jeff Masters

Published: 2:03 PM GMT on October 14, 2011
Heavy rains in Thailand during September and October have led to extreme flooding that has killed 283 people and caused that nation's most expensive natural disaster in history. On Tuesday, Thailand's finance minister put the damage from the floods at $3.9 billion. This makes the floods of 2011 the most expensive disaster in Thai history, surpassing the $1.3 billion price tag of the November 27, 1993 flood, according to the Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters (CRED). Floodwaters have swamped fields and cities in 61 of Thailand's 77 provinces, affected 8.2 million people, and damaged approximately 10% of the nation's rice crop. Thailand is the world's largest exporter of rice, so the disaster may put further upward pressure on world food prices, which are already at the highest levels since the late 1970s. Some of the highest tides of the month occur this weekend in the capital of Bangkok, and the additional pressure that incoming salt water puts on the flood walls protecting the city is a major concern. A moderate monsoon flow continues over Southeast Asia, and the latest GFS model precipitation forecast foresees an additional 2 - 5 inches of rain over most of Thailand during the next three days.


Figure 1. Thailand's Chao Phraya River forms at the confluence of smaller rivers near Nakhon Sawan and flows past Bangkok to the Gulf of Thailand. Floodwalls meant to contain the river collapsed in downtown Nakhon Sawan, the Bangkok Post reported on October 11, 2011. The aftermath of the burst floodwalls left the city looking like a lake. As rivers overflowed in Thailand, the Tônlé Sab (Tonle Sap) lake in neighboring Cambodia (lower right of images) overflowed. The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on NASA's Terra satellite captured these images on October 11, 2011, and October 8, 2010. These images use a combination of visible and infrared light to better distinguish between water and land. Vegetation is green, and clouds are pale blue-green. Water is dark blue. In 2011, water rests on floodplains between Phitsanulok and Nakhon Sawan. Image credit: NASA.

Heavy rains due to an active monsoon and moisture from tropical cyclones
Rainfall in September peaked at 574.3mm (22.61") at Nong Kai in Northeastern Thailand, 501mm (19.72") at Uttardit in Northern Thailand, and 1446.7mm (56.96") in Eastern Thailand. For these regions, precipitation averaged 40 - 46% above normal in September. In the week ending Oct. 13, an additional 4 - 8" fell in Central and Thailand, where the capital of Bangkok lies. On Thursday, 38 mm (1.53") fell in Bangkok, and rainfall amounts of 1 - 3" fell over much of Central Thailand. Heavy monsoon rains are common in Thailand and Southeast Asia during La Niña events, and we currently have a weak La Niña event occurring. Ocean temperatures in the waters surrounding Thailand during September and October have been approximately 0.3°C above average, which has increased rainfall amounts by putting more water vapor into the air. The remains of Tropical Storm Haitang and Typhoon Nesat also brought heavy rains in late September. The flooding has also affected neighboring Cambodia, killing at least 183 people. Floods have also killed 18 in Vietnam and 30 in Laos this fall.

The Atlantic.com has some remarkable photos of the flooding in Thailand.


Figure 2. Top ten most expensive natural disasters in Thailand since 1900, as tabulated by the Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters (CRED).

Hurricane Jova kills five in Mexico, but damage limited
Hurricane Jova killed five people in Mexico but damage was less than expected, amounting to less than $52 million, according to AIR-Worldwide. Jova hit the Pacific coast of Mexico Tuesday night as a Category 2 hurricane with 100 mph winds. Wunderblogger Mike Theiss rode out the storm on the coast, and has a a great post on his experience, which I excerpt here: "the winds suddenly picked up fiercely and started pounding the building I took shelter in. The surf ran way up on the beach and the waves were pounding the buildings and spraying up over everything at the pool. The wind was screaming and howling and the glass was flying. The Spanish tiles were getting ripped off the roof and all the glass light fixture were popping like balloons."


Figure 3. Mudslide from Hurricane Jova covers a road near Mazanillo, Mexico. Image credit: Mike Theiss.

Invest 94L in the Atlantic no threat
An area of disturbed weather (Invest 94L) between North Carolina and Bermuda is moving quickly to the northeast at 15 - 20 mph. This system has a modest amount of heavy thunderstorm activity and a the beginnings of a surface circulation, as seen on recent visible satellite imagery. Conditions are marginal for this to develop into a tropical depression, as wind shear is a high 20 - 30 knots, and ocean temperatures are at the lower limit for develoment, 26.5°C (80°F.) NHC is giving 94L a 20% chance of developing.

Western Caribbean disturbance
In the Western Caribbean, a large area of disturbed weather associated with a low pressure system has developed. Moisture from Tropical Depression 12-E, which moved inland near the Mexico/Guatemala border and dissipated on Wednesday, is invigorating the Western Caribbean low. Heavy rains from the low are affecting much of Central America, Cuba, and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, and these rains will probably intensify over the weekend as the low moves slowly northwest and gradually develops. The low is too large to develop quickly, and NHC is giving the system just a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday. Most of the models predict only weak development of the storm, since wind shear is currently a high 20 - 25 knots, and is expected to be in the moderate to high range, 15 - 25 knots, over the next threee days. Rains from the storm are already affecting the Florida Keys, as seen on long-range Key West radar. A personal weather station on Grand Cayman Island has picked up 0.87" of rain so far this morning from the storm. Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula and Western Cuba will see the heaviest rains from the disturbance over the weekend, and South Florida could see heavy rains of 2 - 4 inches on Sunday and Monday.

Jeff Masters

[dkmac]

2AM - still 20%

1. A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED JUST EAST OF BELIZE ISPRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS A LARGEPORTION OF THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND ADJACENT LAND AREAS. ALTHOUGH SURFACE PRESSURES ARE NOT SIGNIFICANTLY FALLING...SOMEDEVELOPMENT IS STILL POSSIBLE BEFORE THE CENTER DRIFTS OVER THEYUCATAN PENINSULA BY LATE SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48HOURS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE OVER CENTRALAMERICA...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...CUBA...AND ADJACENT ISLANDSDURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...RESULTING IN LIFE-THREATENINGFLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

[dkmac]

Crown:

[h=2]Disturbed Weather In The Western Caribbean May Be Drawn Into A Strong Storm System In The Eastern United States By The Middle Part Of Next Week[/h]Rob Lightbown on October 15, 2011, 6:51 am

Broad low pressure is located just east of Belize this morning. This low pressure system was producing widespread thunderstorms with heavy rain and the threat for flash flooding and mud slides across central America, the Yucatan Peninsula and Belize, much of Cuba, Jamaica and the Cayman Islands.
This is a very large and broad area of low pressure and any development this weekend into next week will be slow to occur. With that said, this low pressure will need to be watched closely for signs of development as environmental conditions are actually somewhat favorable for development.
A strong trough of low pressure tracking into the eastern United States by about Wednesday and Thursday is likely to pull this system north and northeastward across Florida and then up the US East Coast bringing another very heavy rain event from Florida northward through the Mid-Atlantic states and New England. Given how broad this low pressure system is, it should take some time to develop and it may not even develop before it is picked up by that trough of low pressure. With that said, everyone from the western Caribbean northward to Florida should keep a very close eye on this disturbance should it spin up into a tropical cyclone over the next few days.
I’m leaning strongly towards the European model forecast which shows this disturbance meandering very close to the eastern part of the Yucatan Peninsula from today through Sunday before it tracks across the Yucatan Peninsula on Sunday night. The European model then forecasts this system to become sheared out to the northeast by Tuesday as that strong trough of low pressure approaches from the west. The moisture and energy from this disturbance will be pulled northeastward bringing heavy rain and strong winds to much of the eastern United States once we get into Wednesday and Thursday.
I will continue to monitor this disturbance closely and I will keep you all updated on the latest.
Satellite Image:

The next tropical weather discussion will be issued sometime on Sunday morning.

---

[ROLLTIDE]

...

[h=2]Atlantic Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook[/h]

---

This product is updated at approximately 2 AM, 8 AM, 2 PM, and 8 PM EDT from June 1 to November 30. Special outlooks may be issued as conditions warrant.

Place your mouse cursor over areas of interest for more information

Archived Outlooks

GIS data: .shp

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 800 AM EDT SAT OCT 15 2011 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... 1. A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED JUST EAST OF BELIZE IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND ADJACENT LAND AREAS. ALTHOUGH SURFACE PRESSURES ARE NOT SIGNIFICANTLY FALLING...SOME DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE BEFORE THE CENTER MOVES OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA BY LATE SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE... 20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...CUBA...JAMAICA...AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...RESULTING IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. 2. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 675 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO BEFORE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS BECOME LESS FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION. THIS DISTURBANCE HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. $$ FORECASTER BROWN NNNN

[Alex]

Now is it is Invest95L

at201195_sat.jpg

at201195_model.gif

[Her-icane]

[Her-icane]

[Her-icane]

AL, 95, 2011101600, , BEST, 0, 191N, 878W, 25, 1005, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1008, 200, 75, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,

[dkmac]

5AM - 40%

1. A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...CENTERED ALONG THE COAST OF THEEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA ABOUT 60 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OFCHETUMAL MEXICO...IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER DEFINED.THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED AND BECOME MORE CONCENTRATEDNEAR THE SURFACE CENTER DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...ANDSATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE WINDS NEAR TROPICALSTORM STRENGTH ARE OCCURRING NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER IN THE YUCATANCHANNEL. ALTHOUGH A PORTION OF THIS DISTURBANCE IS OVER LAND...SOMEGRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW IS STILL POSSIBLE. THIS SYSTEM HAS AMEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURINGTHE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD. REGARDLESS OFDEVELOPMENT...THIS DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVYRAINFALL OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...GUATEMALA...HONDURAS...BELIZE...CUBA.. .JAMAICA...AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS DURING THE NEXTCOUPLE OF DAYS. IN ADDITION...STRONG GUSTY WINDS TO TROPICAL STORMFORCE WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE WATERS OF THE NORTHWESTERNCARIBBEAN SEA AND THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO OVER THE NEXT COUPLEOF DAYS.

[ChessieStorm]

...

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
551 AM EDT SUN OCT 16 2011

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-162000-
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSBOROUGH-POLK-
MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DE SOTO-CHARLOTTE-LEE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CEDAR KEY...CHIEFLAND...CRYSTAL RIVER...
INVERNESS...BUSHNELL...THE VILLAGES...BROOKSVILLE...SPRING HILL...
NEW PORT RICHEY...ZEPHYRHILLS...CLEARWATER...ST. PETERSBURG...
BRANDON...TAMPA...LAKELAND...WINTER HAVEN...BRADENTON...
WAUCHULA...SEBRING...AVON PARK...NORTH PORT...SARASOTA...VENICE...
ARCADIA...PORT CHARLOTTE...PUNTA GORDA...CAPE CORAL...FORT MYERS
551 AM EDT SUN OCT 16 2011

...INCREASING RAIN CHANCES EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING POSSIBLE...

DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL STREAM INTO ALL OF WEST CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA LATER TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. THIS MOISTURE
COMBINED WITH A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF WATERS AND MERGING WITH A STRONG COLD
FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL SUPPORT INCREASING RAIN
CHANCES ACROSS ALL OF WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
1 TO 3 INCHES WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE DURING MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

THESE HEAVY RAINS WILL INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME FLOODING IN
THE TYPICALLY FLOOD PRONE AREAS AS WELL AS OVER EASTERN POLK AND
NORTHERN HIGHLANDS COUNTIES WHICH RECEIVED HIGH RAINFALL AMOUNTS
DURING LAST WEEKENDS HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT.

ALL RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG RIVERS AND FASTER FLOWING STREAMS AS
WELL AS THOSE WHO LIVE IN FLOOD PRONE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT
TO ANY RAPID RISES IN WATER LEVELS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND
SHOULD SEEK HIGHER GROUND IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED.

IN ADDITION TO THE HEAVY RAINS...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY
PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKES AS
WELL.

INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS OVER THE GULF WATERS WILL ALSO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS THROUGH MID WEEK AND SMALL CRAFT
OPERATORS MAY WANT TO POSTPONE TRIPS INTO THE GULF.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
UPDATES ON THIS DEVELOPING WEATHER SITUATION.

....

[ROLLTIDE]

50%

Return to Atlantic Graphical TWO
1. SATELLITE DATA AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED ALONG THE EASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IS SHOWING SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. IN ADDITION...WINDS NEAR TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH ARE OCCURRING TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND THE EXTREME SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. ALTHOUGH THIS LOW IS INTERACTING WITH LAND...SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT IS STILL POSSIBLE. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT... LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND WESTERN CUBA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

[ROLLTIDE]

[ROLLTIDE]

[sircane]

How could this not be named yet? Are you kidding me?

[ROLLTIDE]

How could this not be named yet? Are you kidding me?

Why do you think that this should be named ?

[sircane]

Look at it! I've seen worse get a name. Joe Bastardi says the same thing.