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Potential Tropical Troubles In The Caribbean Over The Next Week[/h]
Rob Lightbown on October 21, 2011, 6:10 am
I am keeping close tabs on two areas of potential concern. The first area is an area of low pressure that is located over the southwestern Caribbean. Satellite imagery showed some concentrated areas of convection just east of the coast of Nicaragua. Vorticity in the area remains quite concentrated, centered near 12 North Latitude, 80 West Longitude. Wind shear has decreased since yesterday, as expected, and is currently between 10 and 20 knots. An area of 5 knots or less shear is expected to move over this system within the next 24 hours and environmental conditions are forecast to be favorable right through this weekend.
I expect slow development of this broad area of low pressure this weekend and I still expect it to become a tropical depression either on Sunday or Monday. Where will this potential tropical cyclone track? Currently this system is in an area of very light steering winds and it seems like it will very slowly track south-southwestward over the next day or two. The various model guidance forecasts have different ideas on where this potential system will track; so, let’s take a look:
The
GFS model starts to spin up this low pressure system in the southwestern Caribbean during Saturday into Sunday and forecasts it to attain tropical storm strength by Sunday night. After that, the GFS model forecasts this tropical storm to make landfall on the north coast of Honduras on Monday night into Tuesday morning as a strong tropical storm. The GFS model also forecasts the development of a second tropical cyclone in the central Caribbean by about the middle part of next week. This second potential system appears to originate from the deep thunderstorm activity that is now occurring near the coast of Guyana in northeastern South America. The GFS model then forecasts this second system to strengthen into a strong tropical storm or a Category 1 hurricane on Thursday and forecasts it to impact Jamaica and eastern Cuba late next week as a Category 1 hurricane.
The
Canadian model slowly develops the low pressure system in the southwestern Caribbean this weekend and forecasts it to strengthen to tropical storm strength during Monday as it lifts northward into the northwestern Caribbean. The Canadian model then forecasts this system to turn to the west and affect the Cayman Islands as a tropical storm on Monday night and the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula on Wednesday as a tropical storm.
The
UKMET model looks fairly similar to the Canadian model in that it forecasts slow development over the weekend as it pulls northward out of the southwestern Caribbean. As we get into next week, the UKMET model forecasts this potential tropical cyclone to affect the Cayman Islands by Tuesday and western Cuba by Wednesday. The UKMET model also forecasts that barometric pressures will remain low across the entire Caribbean next week potentially supporting the idea of a second tropical cyclone forming later next week in the central and western Caribbean.
The
European model is also on board with potential development in the southwestern Caribbean and forecasts this system to start organizing over the weekend and be lifted northward and affect the Cayman Islands and western Cuba once we get into Tuesday and Wednesday. After that, the European model forecasts this system to track northeastward affecting the Florida Straits and south Florida as a hurricane on Thursday and then become absorbed into a large storm system off of the New England coast by next Friday.
So, it is of my opinion that there are two potential scenarios for this tropical system. The first is that it meanders around the southwestern Caribbean over the next few days and gains little latitude. Should this happen, then a ridge of high pressure building over the southeastern United States and Gulf of Mexico early next week would likely push this potential tropical storm westward into Honduras and Nicaragua by about Tuesday and Wednesday. If this happens, then I foresee this to peak out as a 50 or 60 mph tropical storm, at most. This is the scenario laid out by the GFS model and
the experimental FIM model.
The second potential scenario is that the trough of low pressure currently located over the eastern United States may be strong enough to lift this northward over the weekend as forecast by the Canadian, UKMET and NAM models. Should this happen, then it would have a lot more time to strengthen and could impact the Cayman Islands, central and western Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula as at least a Category 1 hurricane right around the middle part of next week.
I am leaning towards the second scenario of this system lifting northward and potentially affecting the northwestern Caribbean and potentially south Florida and the Bahamas. With that said, western Caribbean tropical cyclones are notoriously very difficult to forecast and many things may change in the forecast of this potential tropical system over the weekend and into next week; so, stay tuned!
As I mentioned in the model guidance talk, some of the model guidance forecasts are forecasting a second tropical cyclone to possibly develop next week in the central Caribbean; so, my second area of potential concern is a tropical disturbance that is located near the northeastern coast of South America. Satellite imagery this morning showed some very deep convection associated with this disturbance, although vorticity associated with this disturbance is pretty strung out right now and it appears to be mostly connected with an upper level low pressure system located just east of the Lesser Antilles. Wind shear is way too strong to support any type of development anytime soon. So, this second disturbance will be monitored once we get into next week should it start developing in the Caribbean.
Satellite Imagery:
Wind Shear Analysis:
Vorticity Analysis:
The next tropical weather discussion will be issued sometime on Saturday.
TROPICAL STORM RINA
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