TROPICAL STORM RINA

[ROLLTIDE]

[ROLLTIDE]

rina.gif

[RegularGuy]

Looks like Cancun might get hammered again by Rina.

[ROLLTIDE]

http://www.hardcoreweather.com/blog.php

[Joe-Nathan]

WOW EVEN THE NHC IS CALLING HER RITA:

HURRICANE RINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182011
400 PM CDT WED OCT 26 2011

RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY...DATA FROM THE BELIZE CITY RADAR...AND
REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT SUGGEST
THAT RINA HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN STRENGTH DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS.
THE AIRCRAFT HAS REPORTED 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 79 KT AND
SFMR SURFACE WIND ESTIMATES OF 75-78 KT...WHILE AN EYEWALL
DROPSONDE SUGGESTS SURFACE WINDS NEAR 70 KT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
OF 75 KT IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THESE DATA. THE AIRCRAFT DATA
SUGGEST THE VORTEX IS TILTED WITH HEIGHT...AS DROPSONDES AT THE
FLIGHT-LEVEL CENTER HAVE CONSISTENTLY REPORTED 25-30 KT SURFACE
WINDS. THIS TILT IS LIKELY DUE TO 20 KT OF SOUTHERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR DEPICTED IN ANALYSES FROM CIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF
WISCONSIN.

RITA HAS CONTINUED ITS SLOW RIGHT TURN...AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS
NOW 310/5. THE FORECAST TRACK AND PHILOSOPHY ARE UNCHANGED FOR THE
FIRST 48 HOURS...WITH THE HURRICANE FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY
NORTHWARD AND THEN NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD NEAR OR OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AS AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES AND THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE TRACK FORECAST BECOMES
VERY PROBLEMATIC AFTER 48 HOURS DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES OF HOW RINA
INTERACTS WITH THE TROUGH AND HOW LONG IT HOLDS TOGETHER
VERTICALLY. THE GFDL AND GFDN MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST THE
SYSTEM TO MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD OVER FLORIDA OR THE FLORIDA
STRAITS INTO THE ATLANTIC. THE ECMWF...NOGAPS...UKMET...AND
CANADIAN MODELS NOW FORECAST RINA OR ITS REMNANTS TO MAKE A HAIRPIN
TURN AND MOVE SOUTHWARD NEAR THE EAST COAST OF YUCATAN. THE
GFS...GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN...AND HWRF MODELS ARE BETWEEN THESE
EXTREMES...FORECASTING THE CYCLONE TO MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD AND THEN
SOUTHEASTWARD NEAR OR OVER WESTERN CUBA. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK
FOLLOWS THESE MODELS AND IS THUS SHIFTED SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS
TRACK. THIS LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST TRACK REMAINS A LOW
CONFIDENCE FORECAST.

RINA IS FORECAST TO BE IN A MODERATE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FOR THE NEXT
24-36 HOURS. THIS...COMBINED WITH EXPECTED LAND INTERACTION...
SUGGESTS IT SHOULD SLOWLY WEAKEN DURING THIS TIME. AFTER 36
HOURS...THE CYCLONE SHOULD ENCOUNTER STRONG SHEAR AS THE
MID/UPPER-LEVEL FLOW TRIES TO STEER IT EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AND THE
LOW-LEVEL FLOW TRIES TO STEER IT SOUTHWARD OR SOUTHWESTWARD. THIS
SHOULD CAUSE RINA TO WEAKEN IN AGREEMENT WITH ALL THE INTENSITY
GUIDANCE. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR A FASTER WEAKENING
THAN PREVIOUSLY SHOWN...IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE DECAY SHIPS
MODEL. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS RELATIVELY SMALL SYSTEM COULD
WEAKEN FASTER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST AND BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY
120 HOURS OR EARLIER.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/2100Z 18.2N 85.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 27/0600Z 18.7N 86.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 27/1800Z 20.0N 86.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 28/0600Z 21.4N 86.9W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND
48H 28/1800Z 22.5N 86.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...OVER WATER
72H 29/1800Z 23.0N 84.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 30/1800Z 22.5N 83.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
120H 31/1800Z 22.5N 83.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[dkmac]

4AM

HURRICANE RINA ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182011
400 AM CDT THU OCT 27 2011

...RINA WEAKENS AS IT HEADS FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.8N 86.9W
ABOUT 115 MI...190 KM S OF COZUMEL MEXICO
ABOUT 95 MI...150 KM ENE OF CHETUMAL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE NORTHEAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM NORTH OF PUNTA
GRUESA TO SAN FELIPE

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CHETUMAL TO PUNTA
GRUESA
* THE NORTH COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WEST OF SAN FELIPE TO
PROGRESO

PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION IN THE WARNING AREA.

INTERESTS IN WESTERN CUBA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF RINA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RINA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 18.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.9 WEST. RINA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/H. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE
NORTH WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TODAY. ON
THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF RINA WILL BE MOVING NEAR OR OVER
THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT
THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH...120
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RINA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND RINA COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85
MILES...140 KM.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM THE HURRICANE HUNTER
OBSERVATIONS IS 988 MB...29.18 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY OCCURRING OVER
PORTIONS OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA. HURRICANE CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA LATER TODAY.

RAINFALL...RINA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6
INCHES OVER THE EASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA AND COZUMEL THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS TO 10 INCHES.

STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY
AS MUCH AS 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT OF THE TRACK OF THE CENTER.
NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND
DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...700 AM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 AM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

HURRICANE RINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182011
400 AM CDT THU OCT 27 2011

RINA HAS BECOME LESS WELL ORGANIZED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER THE
PAST SEVERAL HOURS...WITH THE EXTENT OF COLD CLOUD TOPS DIMINISHING
WITHIN A RAGGED-LOOKING CDO FEATURE. THIS SUGGESTS THAT SOME
WEAKENING HAS TAKEN PLACE...AND INDEED THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE
HUNTERS FOUND THAT THE CYCLONE IS NOW BARELY OF HURRICANE STRENGTH
WITH THE PEAK SFMR-OBSERVED SURFACE WINDS OF 62 KT. THE INITIAL
WIND SPEED IS SET...PERHAPS GENEROUSLY...AT 65 KT. SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR OVER RINA IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE...
AND THIS ALONG WITH THE INTERACTION WITH THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND
DRIER AIR SHOULD CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS MORE WEAKENING THEN
THE PREVIOUS ONE FOR DAYS 1-3 AND IS THE SAME AT DAYS 4-5. THIS IS
SIMILAR TO THE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL DSHIPS MODEL FORECAST.

RINA IS MOVING ALONG THE WESTERN SIDE OF A MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
AREA AT ABOUT 325/5. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON
A NORTHWARD TURN DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. IN 36-48 HOURS...THE
NORTHWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO END AS WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGING
DEVELOPS TO THE WEST OF RINA. BY THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...THE WEAKENING CYCLONE IS LIKELY TO BE DRIVEN SOUTHWARD BY
LOW-LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONT THAT PUSHES
THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS
SOMEWHAT TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...BUT NOT NEARLY
AS MUCH AS SHOWN BY THE PREPONDERANCE OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/0900Z 18.8N 86.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 27/1800Z 19.8N 87.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 28/0600Z 21.0N 87.1W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
36H 28/1800Z 21.6N 86.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 29/0600Z 21.9N 86.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 30/0600Z 22.0N 85.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 31/0600Z 21.5N 85.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 01/0600Z 21.0N 85.5W 25 KT 30 MPH

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[dkmac]

Crown

[h=2]Rina Is Falling Apart As It Approaches The Yucatan Peninsula[/h]Rob Lightbown on October 27, 2011, 5:41 am

Hurricane Rina:
Rina has been extremely fickle over the past 24 hours. After weakening rapidly from a 110 mph borderline Category 2/Category 3 hurricane to a 85 mph Category 1 hurricane yesterday, it tried to make a comeback last evening, however, the latest satellite imagery and reconnaissance reports indicate that Rina is becoming very ragged and some more weakening has occurred according to reconnaissance reports. It appears that Rina is barely a hurricane this morning and some more weakening is likely as the storm encounters increasing wind shear and land interaction with the Yucatan Peninsula; in fact, it appears that Cancun and Cozumel probably will not even experience hurricane force winds, but tropical storm force winds are likely in both places today through tonight.
Rina is tracking northwestward at a forward speed of 6 mph this morning and it appears that since Rina is much weaker than previously expected, it will weaken rapidly this weekend and the end result will be quite similar to Hurricane Paula from last year where it weakened and dissipated near Cuba and never regenerated. It is looking more and more likely that south Florida will escape any effects from Rina, however, a frontal system crossing the Florida Peninsula will cause widespread showers and thunderstorms to much of the Florida Peninsula from Friday afternoon through Friday night.
It should be mentioned that the European model performed extremely well with the forecast of Rina falling apart as it approaches the Yucatan Peninsula and the latest European model forecast indicates that Rina will track inland into the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula as it weakens tonight into Friday and then be shunted back to the east-southeast into the northwestern Caribbean by Saturday where it sit right into the middle part of next week. In fact, the European model is forecasting some regeneration of Rina by about Wednesday as it approaches the Yucatan Peninsula once again. If this happens, then we may be tracking what is left of Rina for several more days.
Forecast Track Map For Rina:

Forecast Wind Swath Map For Rina:


Model Track Forecast For Rina:


Model Intensity Forecast For Rina:

Satellite Imagery Of Rina:



Satellite Products Of Rina From CIMSS
Current Cancun, Mexico Radar Image

Weather Observations From The Yucatan Peninsula
Yucatan Peninsula Observations
Webcam Links From The Yucatan Peninsula
Webcamplaza.net
Yucatan Peninsula Webcams From Hurricane City
Webcam Images From The Royal Resorts
Playa del Carmen, Mexico Webcam (Located West of Cozumel)
Cancun, Mexico Webcam #1
Cancun, Mexico Webcam #2
Cancun, Mexico Webcam #3
Cozumel, Mexico Webcam #1
Cozumel, Mexico Webcam #2
Playa Del Carmen, Mexico Webcam #1
Playa Del Carmen, Mexico Webcam #2
Costa Maya Beach Webcam (Located in Southern Yucatan Peninsula)
News Media Links Related To Hurricane Rina
Live On Demand Weather TV
The Weather Channel Live Stream
Broadcast Coverage From Hurricane City
Broadcast Coverage From The Weather Radio Broadcast Network
The next tropical weather discussion will be issued by 7 am EDT/6 am CDT Friday morning.

---

[Joe-Nathan]

Here is live loop from Cancun:

[dkmac]

JM

[h=1]Rina continues to weaken; nearing landfall in Mexico[/h]By Dr. Jeff Masters

Published: 9:14 AM CDT on October 27, 2011
Hurricane Rina continues to decay, thanks to strong upper-level southerly winds that have created 20 knots of wind shear and torn into the south side of the storm. A NOAA hurricane hunter aircraft is in Rina, and found top winds of 71 mph at the surface with their SFMR surface wind measurement instrument, and 62 mph at their flight level of 10,000 feet, during their first penetration through the center at 9:27 am EDT. These data suggests that Rina is on the verge of becoming a tropical storm. Visible satellite loops show that Rina is just a shell of its former self, with just a small mis-shapen lump of heavy thunderstorms near the center, no eye, and little in the way of spiral bands. Cancun radar shows disorganized heavy rain squalls are affecting the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula and surrounding the waters, and it is difficult to tell from the echoes that there is a tropical storm or hurricane out there. When Rina peaked in strength yesterday with 110 mph winds, it was the 13th strongest Atlantic hurricane so late in the season. But, because it was such a small storm, Rina was very vulnerable to the persistent wind shear of 15 - 20 knots that affected it, especially once it moved away from a "hot spot" in the ocean waters southeast of the Yucatan last night. Rina should continue to decay today, and will probably make landfall as a tropical storm with 60 - 70 mph winds late this afternoon or early this evening. So far this morning, winds at Cozumel have been under 15 mph, and the island had picked up 0.35" of rainfall as of 10 am EDT. Damage from Rina to Cozumel and Cancun should be minor, and I expect the hotels there will be open for business this weekend.

After Rina makes its closest pass by Cozumel, the storm will be too weak and shallow to "feel" the steering influence of a trough of low pressure passing to its north, and Rina will be trapped in the Western Caribbean near the coast of the Yucatan. Wind shear may be strong enough to destroy the storm by Monday. Moisture streaming to the northeast from Rina is likely to bring 1 - 3 inches of rain to the Florida Keys and South Florida over the weekend.


Figure 1. Dark clouds over paradise: a wunderground webcam from Cozumel Island shows the storm clouds from Rina approaching the island at 10:06 am EDT this morning.


Figure 2. Morning radar image of Rina from the Cancun, Mexico radar at 9:30 am EDT October 27, 2011. Image credit: Sevicio Meteorologico Nacional, Mexico.


Figure 3. True-color MODIS image of Hurricane Rina taken at 3:10 pm EDT October 26, 2011. At the time, Rina was a Category 1 hurricane with 85 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic
A broad region of low pressure in the Western Caribbean south of Jamaica (Invest 97L), is moving west at 10 - 15 mph. Heavy thunderstorm activity associated with 97L is disorganized and relatively modest, and NHC is no longer interested enough in 97L to generate computer model forecasts of its track. Heavy rains from 97L will spread over Honduras and Nicaragua tonight and Friday. None of the reliable computer models are developing 97L, and I don't expect development.

The NOGAPS and GFS models are predicting that a strong tropical disturbance capable of developing into a tropical depression could form off the Caribbean coast of Nicaragua 7 - 8 days from now.

There will be a new post on Rina late this afternoon.

Jeff Masters

[brentwpb]

Wow this track is crazy. Can she regenerate?

[ROLLTIDE]

Wow this track is crazy. Can she regenerate?

not possible

[halecjaclyn]

So is the opinion that she's going to just turn around an dissappate? I'm really wanting to make our port in Cozumel Tuesday and don't want any surprises!

[dkmac]

4AM

TROPICAL STORM RINA ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182011
400 AM CDT FRI OCT 28 2011

...RINA SLOWLY WEAKENING AS IT PASSES WEST-NORTHWEST OF CANCUN
MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.1N 87.0W
ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM WNW OF CANCUN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE EAST AND NORTH COASTS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM PUNTA
ALLEN TO SAN FELIPE

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RINA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.0 WEST. RINA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/H. THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO. RINA
SHOULD THEN BEGIN A SOUTHWARD DRIFT BACK TOWARD THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA AND REMAIN THERE FOR A FEW DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THESE WINDS ARE CONFINED TO A SMALL AREA OVER
WATER TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS
FORECAST...AND RINA COULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...
MAINLY NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB...29.47 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING ALONG PORTIONS OF
EXTREME NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH THIS MORNING.

RAINFALL...RINA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6
INCHES OVER THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA AND COZUMEL THROUGH
TODAY WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS TO 10 INCHES.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 1
TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST....
PRIMARILY ON COZUMEL AND EXTREME NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN. THE SURGE
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...700 AM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 AM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

TROPICAL STORM RINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182011
400 AM CDT FRI OCT 28 2011

AFTER AN EARLIER BURST OF VERY COLD-TOPPED CONVECTION OVER THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A SURGE OF 40-KT
SOUTHERLY UPPER-LEVEL WINDS HAS STARTED TO SHEAR AWAY THE
CONVECTION. AS A RESULT OF THE SHARP DEGRADATION IN THE CONVECTIVE
STRUCTURE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN DECREASED TO 45 KT...
WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH THE DOWNWARD TREND IN WIND SPEEDS NOTED IN
NEARBY SURFACE OBSERVATION SITES.

THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A COUPLE OF SURFACE OBS AND POOR
RADAR SIGNATURES FROM BOTH CUBAN AND MEXICAN RADARS...WHICH MAKES
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE AN UNCERTAIN 015/04 KT. THE RAGGED
APPEARANCE IN RADAR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE SMALL CIRCULATION OF
RINA MAY ALREADY BE SUCCUMBING TO THE INCREASING SOUTHERLY VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR. SOME MID-LEVEL ROTATION HAS BECOME APPARENT JUST
NORTHEAST OF THE TIP OF YUCATAN...WHEREAS SURFACE OBS INDICATE THE
SURFACE CENTER IS STILL OVER LAND. WITH THE VERTICAL CIRCULATIONS
FORECAST TO COMPLETELY DECOUPLE DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO...
THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN SLOWLY EASTWARD
AND THEN TURN SOUTHWARD BACK OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA BY
24 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY AND IS WELL TO THE RIGHT OF THE CONSENSUS MODELS...TVCN
AND TVCA.

SINCE THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY INCREASE...THE
MID-/UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO DECOUPLE FROM THE
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION AND LIFT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST WHILE THE
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION REMAINS BEHIND OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS STRONG SHEAR PATTERN SHOULD CAUSE RINA TO
STEADILY WEAKEN THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD...AND THE CYCLONE
COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BY LATER TODAY OR EARLY
SATURDAY. RINA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN BY 48 HOURS...BUT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
REGENERATING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IF IT DOES NOT GET ABSORBED
INTO THE BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED EAST OF NICARAGUA.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/0900Z 21.1N 87.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 28/1800Z 21.5N 86.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 29/0600Z 21.3N 86.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 29/1800Z 20.6N 86.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 30/0600Z 20.0N 86.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 31/0600Z 19.2N 86.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 01/0600Z 17.9N 86.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 02/0600Z 17.0N 87.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[Joe-Nathan]

So did Rina loose all of her convection?

[dkmac]

JM

[h=1]Rina pulls its punch; Thai floods worsen; Texas gets snow[/h]By Dr. Jeff Masters

Published: 9:34 AM CDT on October 28, 2011
Tropical Storm Rina is being ripped apart by strong upper-level southerly winds creating 30 knots of wind shear over the storm. Visible satellite loops show that the low-level circulation of Rina is just a naked swirl over Cancun, on the northeastern tip of the Yucatan Peninsula. The shear has torn away Rina's heavy thunderstorms so that they lie about 200 miles to the northeast of the center. Cancun radar shows almost no rain affecting the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula and surrounding the waters, even though the center of the storm is directly over Cancun. Last night, Rina brought wind gusts of up to 41 mph to Cancun and 43 mph at Cozumel, where 8.20" of rain fell yesterday. Damage from Rina to Cozumel and Cancun should be very minor, and I expect the hotels there will be open for business today.

Rina will continue to be sheared apart today, with the low level center expected to drift slowly southwards along the Yucatan coast. Long range radar out of Key West shows that moisture streaming to the northeast from Rina is bringing rain to the Southwest coast of Florida. Rainfall amounts of 1 - 3 inches are likely over the Florida Keys and South Florida through Sunday due to moisture from Rina. Wind shear should be able to destroy the circulation of Rina by Saturday.


Figure 1. What tropical storm? It's hard to tell a tropical storm with 45 mph winds was centered over this beach in Cancun, Mexico this morning. Rina's heavy rains and strong wind were several hundred miles to the northeast of Cancun this morning, thanks to strong upper-level winds that sheared the storm apart.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Tropical Storm Rina showing the center of circulation over the northeast tip of the Yucatan Peninsula, and the heavy thunderstorms several hundred miles to the northeast of the center.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic
A broad region of low pressure in the Western Caribbean between Jamaica and Honduras is drifting slowly northwest at less than 5 mph. Heavy thunderstorm activity is disorganized and relatively modest, and NHC is giving the region a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday. Heavy rains from the disturbance will affect Honduras, the Cayman Islands, and Nicaragua Friday through Sunday. None of the reliable computer models are showing development of a new tropical depression in the Atlantic over the next seven days, though we will continue to see disturbed weather over the Western Caribbean that could generate something.

Thailand's Great Flood likely to peak this weekend
The most damaging natural disaster in Thailand history is growing more serious, as the flood waters besieging the capital of Bangkok continue to overwhelm defenses and inundate the city. Heavy rains during September and October have led to extreme flooding that has killed 373 people and caused that nation's most expensive natural disaster in history, with a cost now estimated at $6 billion. Thailand's previous most expensive disaster was the $1.3 billion price tag of the November 27, 1993 flood, according to the Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters (CRED). Floodwaters have swamped fields and cities in a third of Thailand's provinces, affected 9 million people, and damaged approximately 10% of the nation's rice crop. Thailand is the world's largest exporter of rice, so the disaster may put further upward pressure on world food prices, which are already at the highest levels since the late 1970s. The highest tide of the month occurs this weekend at 8:07 am ICT in the capital of Bangkok, and the additional pressure that incoming salt water puts on the flood walls protecting the city is a major concern. Fortunately, the monsoon has been quiet this week over Southeast Asia, and the latest GFS model precipitation forecast show little additional rain over the country in the coming week. Heavy monsoon rains are common in Thailand and Southeast Asia during La Niña events, and we currently have a weak La Niña event occurring. Ocean temperatures in the waters surrounding Thailand during September and October have been approximately 0.3°C above average, which has increased rainfall amounts by putting more water vapor into the air. The remains of Tropical Storm Haitang and Typhoon Nesat also brought heavy rains in late September which contributed to the flooding.


Figure 3. Top ten most expensive natural disasters in Thailand since 1900, as tabulated by the Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters (CRED). This month's disaster (number one on the table above) is not yet in the CRED data base.

Texas gets its first snow of the season
The first snow of the season blanketed parts of the western and central Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles yesterday. Officially, Amarillo, TX picked up 3.1" of snow, which was a record for the date (old record: 2.4" on Oct. 27, 1911.) Areas 6 miles southwest of Amarillo got up to five inches of snow. Amarillo's heaviest October snow on record was 9.0" on Oct.21 - 22, 1906. The earliest measurable snowfall at Amarillo is 0.3" on Sept. 29, 1984. Yesterday's snow was quite a contrast from Tuesday's weather, when the high hit 86°F in Amarillo! Normally Texas would grumble about getting snow so early in the year, but yesterday's 1.23" of precipitation in Amarillo was over 25% of their precipitation for the entire year. Amarillo has now had 4.84" of precipitation this year, which is almost 14" below normal. Wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt has the latest on the Texas drought in his latest post. He noted that Pecos, TX had received a paltry .48" so far this year, and that the driest calendar year in Texas records was 1.64" at Presidio in 1956. Well, Pecos got another 0.02" yesterday to bring their yearly total to 0.50", so that city is still on track to record the lowest rainfall of any city in Texas history.

My next post may not be until Sunday or Monday, depending upon the weather.

Jeff Masters