INVEST 97L CODE YELLOW

[dkmac]

2PM 20%

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS FORMED ABOUT 350 MILES
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF TRINIDAD IN THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS.
CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW HAVE BECOME A
LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED AND THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT HAS
INCREASED. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...CLOUDINESS AND HEAVY RAINS WILL LIKELY SPREAD OVER
NORTHERN VENEZUELA AND THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS DURING THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

[ROLLTIDE]

[dkmac]

2AM

2. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN LIMITED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A BROADAREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES EAST OF THEWINDWARD ISLANDS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MOREFAVORABLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...AND SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OFTHIS DISTURBANCE IS POSSIBLE. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE... 20PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURSAS IT MOVES SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...CLOUDINESS AND HEAVY RAINS COULD SPREAD OVER PORTIONS OF THEWINDWARD ISLANDS AND NORTHERN VENEZUELA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

[dkmac]

[ROLLTIDE]

[dkmac]

Crown:

[h=2]Rina Is Now A 100 Mph Category 2 Hurricane; Hurricane Watches Are Now In Effect For The East Coast Of The Yucatan Peninsula, Including Cancun & Cozumel; Invest 97L Could Become Tropical Storm Sean Over The Next Couple Of Days[/h]Rob Lightbown on October 25, 2011, 6:28 am

Invest 97L:
If Rina wasn’t enough, we are once again closely monitoring Invest 97L which is now located in south-central Caribbean just north of Curacao. Invest 97L has become better organized overnight and environmental conditions are expected to become more favorable for development over the next few days. I do think that this will become our next tropical depression and very possibly our next tropical storm over the next 2 to 3 days. None of the global models are spinning up this disturbance even though it is clearly showing signs of organization and development.
The dynamical hurricane models, however, are forecasting significant development with the SHIPS and LGEM models forecasting borderline Category 2-3 strength by this weekend. The track guidance like the three BAM models are forecasting a track that pulls this system northward across the Cayman Islands on Friday and then across western or central Cuba and towards south Florida by Sunday. As for the other dynamical hurricane guidance, the HWRF model forecasts that 97L will become a tropical storm during the day Wednesday and then a hurricane by about Friday. From there, the HWRF model forecasts that future Sean will affect the Cayman Islands as a upper end Category 2 hurricane late Friday and then cross central Cuba on Saturday night for a potential landfall in south Florida on Sunday.
The GFDL model is forecasting that 97L will develop into a tropical storm over the next couple of days and potentially become a hurricane by about Friday. The GFDL model then forecasts that future Sean will turn northwestward and possibly affect the Cayman Islands as a major hurricane on Saturday this weekend and then approach western Cuba as a major hurricane on Sunday.
I think there is enough evidence in the satellite presentation and the forecast favorable environmental conditions to say that Invest 97L needs to be watched very closely over the next couple of days and interests in the Cayman Islands should pay particularly close attention to this system.
Invest 97L Information


Model Track Forecast:



Model Intensity Forecast:

Hurricane Track Model Forecast Text
GFDL Model Forecast Text
UKMET Model Forecast Text
Hurricane Model Track Guidance Links From Allan Huffman
ATCF Images (Hurricane Track Models)
GFDL/HWRF Model Images
Satellite Pictures Of Invest 97L:



Satellite Products Of Invest 97L From CIMSS
The next tropical weather discussion will be issued by 7 am EDT/6 am CDT Wednesday morning. Updates to this discussion may be issued today if there are significant changes with either Rina or Invest 97L.

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[ROLLTIDE]

97L.gif

[dkmac]

2AM back down to 10%

A SURFACE TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA IS PRODUCING
DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...
IF ANY...SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15
MPH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[ROLLTIDE]

[dkmac]

4AM

1. A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZEDCLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA.DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT LIKELY FOR THE NEXT FEWDAYS...AND IT HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING ATROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT10 TO 15 MPH.

[dkmac]

This is no longer showing on WU as an invest. However NHC still giving an advisory on it at 4AM:

1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA AREASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. DEVELOPMENT OF THISDISTURBANCE...IF ANY...SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT DRIFTSNORTHWESTWARD. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OFBECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.