THIS WEEKS S. LA SVR POTENTIAL - NOV 15, 2011

**Joe-Nathan** · 11-14-2011 07:23 AM

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1150 PM CST MON NOV 14 2011

VALID 151200Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS
AND LOWER MS VALLEY...

...TX COASTAL PLAINS/SABINE RIVER VALLEY/LOWER MS VALLEY...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY THIS
MORNING WITH A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING ON THE TX COASTAL
PLAINS AT 12Z. THIS LINE IS FORECAST TO MOVE EWD ACROSS SCNTRL AND
SE TX DURING THE MORNING JUST AHEAD OF A WELL-DEFINED VORTICITY MAX.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ON THE TX COASTAL PLAINS AT 15Z TO 18Z SHOW A
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S F
AND 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES IN THE 40 TO 50 KT RANGE. THIS ENVIRONMENT
MAY SUPPORT A WIND DAMAGE THREAT AS A LINEAR MCS MOVES EWD INTO THE
CORPUS CHRISTI AND HOUSTON AREAS AROUND MIDDAY. THE UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL JET MAX IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE
LOWER MS VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...A BAND OF
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AND A SLOWLY DESTABILIZING AIRMASS MAY ENABLE THE
CONVECTIVE LINE TO PERSIST THIS AFTERNOON WITH A WIND DAMAGE THREAT
DEVELOPING EWD INTO LA AND MS. THE MAIN ISSUE WITH THIS FORECAST IS
THAT THE MODELS DO NOT SHOW MUCH FOCUS WITH THIS SYSTEM. THIS
SUGGESTS THE WIND DAMAGE THREAT COULD BE INTERMITTENT AND DEPENDENT
UPON HOW MUCH DESTABILIZATION OCCURS ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY.
THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT THE SEVERE THREAT COULD BE SPLIT INTO
SEPARATE AREAS WHERE INSTABILITY BECOMES MAXIMIZED.

THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
FURTHER NORTH ACROSS THE ARKLATEX AND IN THE SRN OZARKS.
HOWEVER...MODEL FORECASTS SHOW A WEAKNESS IN DEEP LAYER SHEAR ACROSS
MUCH OF AR AND NE TX SUGGESTING THE WIND DAMAGE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN
MARGINAL THERE. FURTHER TO THE EAST ACROSS THE TN VALLEY...FORECAST
SOUNDINGS BY LATE AFTERNOON SHOW STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR DUE TO A
BELT OF 50 TO 60 KT WINDS IN THE MID-LEVELS. THIS ALONG WITH WEAK
DESTABILIZATION AND 30 TO 40 KT AT 850 MB MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A
MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE THREAT AS THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

..BROYLES/GARNER.. 11/15/2011

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

**Joe-Nathan** · 11-14-2011 07:25 AM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
611 AM CST MON NOV 14 2011

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE CONSIDERABLY TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION. ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME...INSTABILITY AND SHEAR ARE FORECAST TO BE SUFFICIENT
FOR SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EAST TEXAS AND
WESTERN LOUISIANA TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AND INTO CENTRAL LOUISIANA
TUESDAY EVENING. ALL SEVERE MODES...LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS...AND TORNADOES...ARE POSSIBLE. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER
HAS OUTLINED THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS.

THE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT TUESDAY AS
THE UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM PULLS EAST OF THE REGION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY OR TONIGHT...BUT
MAY BE REQUIRED ON TUESDAY.

**dkmac** · 11-14-2011 12:27 PM

N.O. NWS HWO:

DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
FROM STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WELL IN ADVANCE OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS COLD AIR MOVES INTO THE NORTH GULF WITH
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

WEATHER CAN CHANGE VERY RAPIDLY. ALWAYS USE THE LATEST
FORECASTS...WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR PLANNING PURPOSES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT NEEDED TODAY BUT MAY BE ANTICIPATED FOR
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

**dkmac** · 11-15-2011 05:24 AM

11/15:

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1150 PM CST MON NOV 14 2011

VALID 151200Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS
AND LOWER MS VALLEY...

...TX COASTAL PLAINS/SABINE RIVER VALLEY/LOWER MS VALLEY...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY THIS
MORNING WITH A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING ON THE TX COASTAL
PLAINS AT 12Z. THIS LINE IS FORECAST TO MOVE EWD ACROSS SCNTRL AND
SE TX DURING THE MORNING JUST AHEAD OF A WELL-DEFINED VORTICITY MAX.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ON THE TX COASTAL PLAINS AT 15Z TO 18Z SHOW A
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S F
AND 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES IN THE 40 TO 50 KT RANGE. THIS ENVIRONMENT
MAY SUPPORT A WIND DAMAGE THREAT AS A LINEAR MCS MOVES EWD INTO THE
CORPUS CHRISTI AND HOUSTON AREAS AROUND MIDDAY. THE UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL JET MAX IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE
LOWER MS VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...A BAND OF
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AND A SLOWLY DESTABILIZING AIRMASS MAY ENABLE THE
CONVECTIVE LINE TO PERSIST THIS AFTERNOON WITH A WIND DAMAGE THREAT
DEVELOPING EWD INTO LA AND MS. THE MAIN ISSUE WITH THIS FORECAST IS
THAT THE MODELS DO NOT SHOW MUCH FOCUS WITH THIS SYSTEM. THIS
SUGGESTS THE WIND DAMAGE THREAT COULD BE INTERMITTENT AND DEPENDENT
UPON HOW MUCH DESTABILIZATION OCCURS ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY.
THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT THE SEVERE THREAT COULD BE SPLIT INTO
SEPARATE AREAS WHERE INSTABILITY BECOMES MAXIMIZED.

THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
FURTHER NORTH ACROSS THE ARKLATEX AND IN THE SRN OZARKS.
HOWEVER...MODEL FORECASTS SHOW A WEAKNESS IN DEEP LAYER SHEAR ACROSS
MUCH OF AR AND NE TX SUGGESTING THE WIND DAMAGE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN
MARGINAL THERE. FURTHER TO THE EAST ACROSS THE TN VALLEY...FORECAST
SOUNDINGS BY LATE AFTERNOON SHOW STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR DUE TO A
BELT OF 50 TO 60 KT WINDS IN THE MID-LEVELS. THIS ALONG WITH WEAK
DESTABILIZATION AND 30 TO 40 KT AT 850 MB MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A
MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE THREAT AS THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

..BROYLES/GARNER.. 11/15/2011

**Joe-Nathan** · 11-15-2011 06:55 AM

LOOKS LIKE EAST TX WILL BE THE TARGET OF SVR WX FROM SQUALL LINE. SAME LINE WILL BREAK UP AS IT APPROACHES LAF AREA:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
535 AM CST TUE NOV 15 2011

RELIABLE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS DEPICT A FAIRLY SOLID N-S ORIENTED
SQUALL LINE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST DURING THE MID AFTERNOON
HOURS...REACHING THE DOORSTEP OF MY EAST TEXAS COUNTIES BY 4
PM...AND NOT CROSSING THE SABINE RIVER UNTIL THE EARLY EVENING...WITH
THE LINE POTENTIALLY BECOMING MORE FRACTURED AS IT CONTINUES TO
PROGRESS TO THE EAST...REACHING NEAR THE ATCHAFALAYA RIVER BY
MIDNIGHT. HAVE MODIFIED POPS/WX TO GENERALLY FIT THIS THINKING...WITH
HIGHEST POPS OVER EAST TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON...SHIFTING EAST OVER
LOUISIANA DURING THE EVENING...AND OVER THE ATCHAFALAYA BASIN
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

THE SPC CONTINUES TO OUTLINE THE AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS...AND THIS STILL LOOKS REASONABLE. DAMAGING WINDS
STILL LOOK LIKE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER MODE...THOUGH THE RISK
OF LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES WILL EXIST AS WELL...ESPECIALLY WITH
ANY DISCRETE CELLS OR SUPERCELLUAR STRUCTURES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
SQUALL LINE.

**Joe-Nathan** · 11-15-2011 06:56 AM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
611 AM CST TUE NOV 15 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
LOUISIANA...SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...WEST
CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN LOUISIANA
UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING. AREAS OF DENSE FOG...REDUCING VISIBILITY
TO LESS THAN ONE QUARTER MILE...WILL MAKE FOR HAZARDOUS TRAVEL
CONDITIONS THIS MORNING.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHEAST OUT OF SOUTHERN TEXAS ACROSS THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS IT DOES SO...MODEL PROJECTIONS AT
THIS TIME POINT TO A SQUALL LINE APPROACHING EAST TEXAS DURING THE
MID AFTERNOON HOURS...THEN CROSSING THE SABINE RIVER BY EARLY
EVENING...AND PROGRESSING EAST THROUGH THE REST OF LOUISIANA
DURING THE EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS.

DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER
HAZARD...THOUGH LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

THE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE
UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM PULLS EAST OF THE REGION AND...THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY MOVES EAST OF THE ATCHAFALAYA RIVER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
STORM SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

**Joe-Nathan** · 11-15-2011 07:01 AM

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 884
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
640 AM CST TUE NOV 15 2011

PHP Code:


   THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF 

   

          SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS

   

   EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY MORNING FROM 640 AM UNTIL 1100 AM CST.

   

   HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70

   MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

   

   THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60

   STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES NORTH

   NORTHEAST OF AUSTIN TEXAS TO 50 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF VICTORIA

   TEXAS.  FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED

   WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).

   

   REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE

   FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH

   AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR

   THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS

   AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY

   DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

   

   OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 883...

   

   DISCUSSION...LINE OF STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO FORWARD PROPAGATE

   THROUGH S-CNTRL TX WHERE THE ATMOSPHERE IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND

   30-40 KT VERTICAL SHEAR IS SUFFICIENT FOR EMBEDDED BOWING

   STRUCTURES. ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN

   THREATS.

   

   AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT

   TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60

   KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM

   MOTION VECTOR 24035.

   

   

   ...DIAL

**ROLLTIDE** · 11-15-2011 07:53 AM

**Joe-Nathan** · 11-15-2011 09:27 AM

GETTING CLOSER, BUT WILL IT HOLD TOGETHER:

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 885
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
900 AM CST TUE NOV 15 2011

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

EASTERN TEXAS
COASTAL WATERS

EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 900 AM UNTIL
400 PM CST.

HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 105
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES SOUTH
SOUTHWEST OF COLLEGE STATION TEXAS TO 45 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF
LUFKIN TEXAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 884...

DISCUSSION...AS UPPER WAVE SHIFTS EWD THROUGH SRN TX AND AIR MASS
CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY
THROUGH THE DAY. ELEVATED STORMS DEVELOPING OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEASTERN TX WILL HAVE AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SEVERE HAIL THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. AS THE AIR MASS CONTINUES WARMING...THE WIND
THREAT SHOULD INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 24030.

...IMY

**ROLLTIDE** · 11-15-2011 10:26 AM

Live Tracker for Tuesday/Wed

">

**ROLLTIDE** · 11-15-2011 10:35 AM

New Day 1

Nov 15, 2011 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Tue Nov 15 16:16:12 UTC 2011 (Print Version)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table

Probability of one inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of two inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point. (More Info)

Forecast Discussion

SPC AC 151612 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1012 AM CST TUE NOV 15 2011 VALID 151630Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN TX EWD ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY REGION... ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER WAVE OVER SRN TX WAS BEGINNING TO DEAMPLIFY...AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE IT SHIFTS ENEWD THROUGH SERN TX/SRN LA INTO INCREASINGLY CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. DIFFUSE FRONT EXTENDED FROM NEAR THE MS/TN BORDER SWWD ACROSS AR AND INTO NRN TX...BEFORE STRETCHING SWD INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TX. THE FRONT WILL NOT MUCH MOVE UNTIL LATER IN THE PERIOD...AS LONGWAVE TROUGH SHARPENS OVER THE PLAINS AND A REINFORCING COLD FRONT PUSHES SEWD. REMNANT OVERNIGHT SQUALL LINE WAS LOCATED EAST OF SAN ANTONIO AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO SHIFT ENEWD AHEAD OF UPPER WAVE. OTHER STORMS ARE ALSO DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM AND ENOUGH INSTABILITY MAY EXIST FOR MORNING STORMS TO PRODUCE SOME HAIL. HOWEVER...THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD INCREASE WITH THESE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS/DESTABILIZES. THE COMBINATION OF MODERATE INSTABILITY...SBCAPE TO 1000-2000 J/KG...AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 40 KT SHOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE...ONCE THE STORMS INGEST THE UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER. THESE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO PROGRESS EWD ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY LATER TODAY/TONIGHT WITH A THREAT FOR WIND DAMAGE. WHILE THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND FORCING IS FORECAST TO BE STRONGER ACROSS SRN LA OVERNIGHT...IT APPEARS THE STORMS WILL BECOME SOMEWHAT ELEVATED... RESULTING IN ONLY A VERY ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT. A SEPARATE AREA OF STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM FARTHER NORTH NEAR THE STALLED FRONT FROM THE ARKLATEX EWD INTO NRN MS. WHILE INSTABILITY WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY STRONG...THE PRESENCE OF THE MOIST AIR MASS...UPPER FORCING AND 40-50 KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR MAY YIELD A MARGINAL HAIL/SEVERE WIND THREAT DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. ..IMY/HURLBUT.. 11/15/2011 CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

**Joe-Nathan** · 11-15-2011 10:40 AM

Originally Posted by ROLLTIDE

Live Tracker for Tuesday/Wed

">

wishfully hoping??

**Joe-Nathan** · 11-15-2011 10:55 AM

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2323
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1035 AM CST TUE NOV 15 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF SERN TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 884...885...

VALID 151635Z - 151830Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
884...885...CONTINUES.

STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE GRADUALLY THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WITH
THE MAIN THREAT BEING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL AND
PERHAPS A VERY BRIEF TORNADO MAY OCCUR AS WELL.

A SMALL MCS WITH TRAILING OUTFLOW CONTINUES TO SHIFT EWD ACROSS S
CNTRL INTO SERN TX...WITH A FEW CELLS FORMING ON THE LEADING EDGE OF
SOME CLOUD BREAKS WITH POCKETS OF HEATING.

SOME FURTHER DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED OVER SERN TX INTO LA
TODAY...AND MID TO UPPER LEVEL WINDS MAY INCREASE A BIT AS WELL AS A
COMPACT JET MAX EJECTS EWD. RADAR CURRENTLY SHOWS RATHER
DISORGANIZED STORM MODES ONGOING...AND THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO LOW TO
MID LEVEL VEERING/BACKING WITH HEIGHT SHOWN ON THE LDB PROFILER.
THIS PORTION OF THE HODOGRAPH MAY STRAIGHTEN OUT LATER
TODAY...ESPECIALLY IF A MESOLOW CAN FORM NEAR THE LARGER CLUSTERS OF
STORMS.

..JEWELL.. 11/15/2011

**Joe-Nathan** · 11-15-2011 04:08 PM

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2325
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0349 PM CST TUE NOV 15 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN OK...ERN TX...SWRN AR

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 152149Z - 152345Z

STORMS ARE ON THE INCREASE OVER SERN OK...NERN TX AND INTO SWRN AR.
THE STRONGER CORES MAY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...BUT A WATCH IS NOT EXPECTED.

SURFACE MAP SHOWS A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH FROM N CNTRL TX INTO ERN OK
WITH MID 60S F DEWPOINTS TO THE E. MEANWHILE...AN OLD OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY REMAINED FROM E CNTRL AR INTO NRN MS...WITH COOL STABLE AIR
TO THE N.

A POCKET OF MODERATE INSTABILITY HAS FORMED OVER NERN TX AND SERN OK
WHERE HEATING OCCURRED N OF THE CIRRUS SHIELD. SUFFICIENT
CONVERGENCE NEAR THE BOUNDARIES IS RESULTING IN A FEW STRONG STORMS.
DEEP LAYER EFFECTIVE SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 30 KTS EXISTS OVER TX AND
OK...INCREASING TO NEAR 50 KT NEAR THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY BUT BECOMING
INEFFECTIVE FOR UNSTABLE PARCELS N OF I-40. AS THE FEATURE OVER SERN
TX CONTINUES EWD...MID/UPPER FLOW IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN A BIT OVER
THE ARKLATEX. STILL...SUFFICIENT SHEAR MAY EXIST FOR A FEW
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL STORMS...BUT OVERALL COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED
TO WARRANT A WEATHER WATCH.

..JEWELL.. 11/15/2011

**ROLLTIDE** · 11-15-2011 04:20 PM

Not expecting much tomorrow but I will be ready just in case

**ROLLTIDE** · 11-15-2011 04:51 PM

**Joe-Nathan** · 11-15-2011 05:01 PM

EAST TX NADO ALLEY:

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
452 PM CST TUE NOV 15 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LAKE CHARLES HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN HARDIN COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
CENTRAL JASPER COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
THIS INCLUDES KIRBYVILLE...
WEST CENTRAL NEWTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
SOUTHEASTERN TYLER COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
THIS INCLUDES...TOWN BLUFF...FRED...

* UNTIL 530 PM CST

* AT 447 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR CANEY
HEAD...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
SPURGER...MT. UNION...MAGNOLIA SPRINGS AND ROGANVILLE

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR INDICATES A TORNADO MAY FORM AT ANY
TIME. TAKE COVER NOW! ABANDON MOBILE HOMES AND VEHICLES. MOVE TO AN
INTERIOR ROOM OR HALLWAY ON THE LOWEST FLOOR AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM CST
TUESDAY EVENING FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

&&

PLEASE REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT
337-477-5285 EXTENSION 1.

LAT...LON 3089 9417 3072 9379 3039 9411 3047 9429
TIME...MOT...LOC 2252Z 208DEG 27KT 3053 9414

$$

**Joe-Nathan** · 11-15-2011 05:41 PM

WELL LOOK AT THIS, JUST OUT SIDE MY OFFICE WINDOW:

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
536 PM CST TUE NOV 15 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LAKE CHARLES HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
LAFAYETTE PARISH IN SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES...SCOTT...LAFAYETTE...CARENCRO...
NORTH CENTRAL VERMILION PARISH IN SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...

* UNTIL 630 PM CST

* AT 535 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH...15 MILES SOUTH OF SCOTT...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH. REMEMBER TORNADO'S CAN AND DO FORM
WITH LITTLE WARNING.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
RIDGE BY 540 PM CST...
DUSON BY 545 PM CST...
LAFAYETTE AND SCOTT BY 550 PM CST...
CARENCRO AND CANKTON BY 600 PM CST...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH...
DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...DEADLY LIGHTNING...AND HEAVY RAIN. STAY INDOORS...
AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM CST
TUESDAY EVENING FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

**Joe-Nathan** · 11-15-2011 05:57 PM

Sitting waiting on core:

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**ROLLTIDE** · 11-15-2011 06:14 PM

New Tornado Watch out

Thread: THIS WEEKS S. LA SVR POTENTIAL - NOV 15, 2011

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THIS WEEKS S. LA SVR POTENTIAL - NOV 15, 2011

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