6 to 10 day Outlook for Dec

[ROLLTIDE]

6 to 10 Day Outlooks

Valid: December 06 2011 to December 10 2011 Updated: 30 Nov 2011

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Temperature

Precipitation

Related Topics: Prognostic Discussion, 500mb Heights and Anomalies, Time Series of Surface Forecast Skill, Model Guidance Used, 8 to 14 Day Outlooks, Wind Chill, Our Mission, Who We Are, CPC Information, CPC Web Team

[Joe-Nathan]

Looks like another round of snow for Tenn end of next week:

[Joe-Nathan]

AN EVER SO SLIGHT OF A HINT AT WINTER PRECIP FROM LAKE CHARLES NWS:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
540 AM CST FRI DEC 2 2011

LONG TERM...RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE TO CLIMB ALONG WITH AMOUNTS
LATE SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH CONVERGENCE AND AN ACTIVE
SUBTROPICAL JET AHEAD OF THE FRONT...ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE FOLLOWING
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IN A MOIST FIELD. HELD TEMPERATURES DOWN
SUNDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO RAIN COOLED AIR BEING DRAGGED DOWN TO THE
SURFACE. THIS WILL HELP KEEP TEMPS LOWER THROUGH THE RAIN EVENT
EARLY NEXT WEEK. SO FAR...THICKNESS VALUES NOT SUPPORTING ANY
WINTRY PRECIP AS THE TRAILING EDGE MOVES OFF HOWEVER THIS WILL
NEED TO BE MONITORED SINCE THE AIR WILL BE MODIFIED FROM ARCTIC
ORIGINS OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

[Joe-Nathan]

I AM LIKING THE 108HR GFS:

[Joe-Nathan]

Looks like it will be Ms, Al and Ga on Wed-Thur:

[Joe-Nathan]

FROM JACKSON, MS NWS:

[Joe-Nathan]

N. BAMA:

Latest guidance along with current observations has increased confidence that we may see more than a quarter of an inch of snow in the northwest. In fact there is even a potential for as much as 1.5 inches in far northwestern sections of Marion county. The best chance for any accumulating snow remains north of a Vernon to Jasper to Oneonta line.

[Joe-Nathan]

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
623 AM CST WED DEC 7 2011

...RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW THIS MORNING FOR NORTHWEST CENTRAL
ALABAMA...

.A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE EASTWARD OUT OF THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS MORNING AND ADVECT COLD AIR INTO CENTRAL
ALABAMA. PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN AS LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE BUT
SHOULD BEGIN TO TURN OVER TO ALL SNOW BY 8 AM. WINTRY
PRECIPITATION SHOULD ONLY LAST FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS WITH NO
TRAVEL HAZARDS EXPECTED.

ALZ011>015-071900-
/O.CON.KBMX.WW.Y.0006.111207T1400Z-111207T1900Z/
MARION-LAMAR-FAYETTE-WINSTON-WALKER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HAMILTON...SULLIGENT...VERNON...
FAYETTE...DOUBLE SPRINGS...JASPER
623 AM CST WED DEC 7 2011

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM CST THIS
AFTERNOON...

* EVENT...RAIN WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW AROUND 8 AM THIS MORNING
FOR COUNTIES IN NORTHWEST CENTRAL ALABAMA. ACCUMULATIONS OF ONE
QUARTER TO ONE INCH ARE LIKELY WITH ISOLATED TOTALS UP TO ONE
AND ONE HALF INCH POSSIBLE.

* TIMING...SNOW SHOULD ONLY FALL FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS THIS
MORNING. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE BACK TO RAIN THIS
AFTERNOON FOR AREAS EAST OF INTERSTATE 65.

* IMPACT...DUE TO WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES...SNOW IS ONLY
EXPECTED TO ACCUMULATE ON GRASSY SURFACES FOR A SHORT PERIOD
OF TIME. NO ROAD HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THOUGH NONE ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME...A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
MEANS THAT ANY AREA THAT RECEIVES QUICK ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW
COULD EXPERIENCE A SMALL BUILD UP OF SLUSHY CONDITIONS ON AREA
ROADWAYS. THESE CONDITIONS...SHOULD THEY OCCUR...WILL BE VERY
ISOLATED AND ONLY LAST FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME.

[ROLLTIDE]

3 inches on the ground in Ripley MS

[ROLLTIDE]

12/07/2011 0800 am

Germantown, Shelby County.

Snow m1.5 inch, reported by co-op observer.





12/07/2011 0800 am

3 miles N of Bartlett, Shelby County.

Snow m1.4 inch, reported by trained spotter.






12/07/2011 0853 am

Lakeland, Shelby County.

Snow m1.2 inch, reported by NWS employee.






12/07/2011 0803 am

4 miles WSW of Millington, Shelby County.

Snow m3.0 inch, reported by trained spotter.


Measured 3.0 inches of snow in Millington.




12/07/2011 0551 am

Germantown, Shelby County.

Snow m1.0 inch, reported by trained spotter.





12/07/2011 0600 am

3 miles N of Bartlett, Shelby County.

Snow m0.7 inch, reported by trained spotter.


Snowfall measured at 0.7 inches as of 600 am CST 3 miles
north of Bartlett.




12/07/2011 0735 am

2 miles N of Germantown, Shelby County.

Snow m1.5 inch, reported by official NWS obs.


Measured at the NWS Memphis forecast office.




12/07/2011 0736 am

4 miles WSW of Millington, Shelby County.

Snow m2.0 inch, reported by trained spotter.


Measured 2.25 inches of snow in Millington.




12/07/2011 0740 am

Cordova, Shelby County.

Snow m1.5 inch, reported by NWS employee.





12/07/2011 0444 am

Millington, Shelby County.

Snow m0.2 inch, reported by trained spotter.


Snow has been measured at 0.25 inches in
Millington... Shelby County Tennessee and snow is now
covering bridges and overpasses.




12/07/2011 0530 am

1 miles N of Bartlett, Shelby County.

Snow m0.8 inch, reported by public.


The public reports 0.75 inches of snow has fallen 1 mile
north of Bartlett High School as of 530 am CST.




12/07/2011 0549 am

5 miles N of Southaven, Shelby County.

Snow m0.4 inch, reported by official NWS obs.


Measured at Memphis International Airport.




12/07/2011 0735 am

2 miles N of Germantown, Shelby County.

Snow m1.5 inch, reported by official NWS obs.


Measured at the NWS Memphis forecast office.





12/07/2011 0736 am

4 miles WSW of Millington, Shelby County.

Snow m2.0 inch, reported by trained spotter.


Measured 2.25 inches of snow in Millington.

[ROLLTIDE]

Winter Storm Warning

[h=3]Winter Storm Warning[/h]
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL 1024 AM CST WED DEC 7 2011 ...WIDESPREAD WINTRY PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TODAY... .A STRONG UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM MOVING EASTWARD OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES IS COMBINING WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WHICH IS PRODUCING A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST LATER THIS MORNING. A LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN AND SNOW MIX WILL CONTINUE TO OCCUR LATE THIS MORNING...BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO ALL SNOW THIS AFTERNOON. ALL SNOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO QUICKLY EXIT EAST OF THE AREA BY LATE THIS EVENING. ANY LINGERING WATER ON AREA ROADWAYS IS THEN EXPECTED TO FREEZE OVERNIGHT AS TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW FREEZING. ALZ008>010-TNZ076-097-080000- /O.UPG.KHUN.WW.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-111208T0000Z/ /O.NEW.KHUN.WS.W.0005.111207T1624Z-111208T0000Z/ MARSHALL-JACKSON-DEKALB-MOORE-FRANKLIN TN- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...GUNTERSVILLE...SCOTTSBORO... FORT PAYNE...LYNCHBURG...WINCHESTER 1024 AM CST WED DEC 7 2011 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HUNTSVILLE HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. * TIMING AND AREAS AFFECTED...A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE EASTWARD INTO NORTHEAST ALABAMA BY NOON...BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO ALL SNOW THIS AFTERNOON. SNOWFALL WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF AFTER 6 PM AS THE PRECIPITATION MOVES EASTWARD. * ACCUMULATIONS...2 TO 3 INCHES...MAINLY ON GRASSY AND ELEVATED SURFACES. * OTHER HAZARDS...TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY FALL BELOW FREEZING AFTER SUNSET. THIS COULD LEAD TO BLACK ICE ON AREA ROADWAYS LATER TONIGHT. * IMPACTS...DUE TO RELATIVELY WARM TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING...ANY DEVELOPING SNOW WILL INITIALLY MELT. HOWEVER...PERSISTENT LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW CONTINUING INTO THE AFTERNOON PERIOD MAY RESULT IN SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS...MAINLY ON GRASSY SURFACES AND ROADS AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT...FOOD...AND WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY.

[Windwatcher]

It is freeeezing here! The thermometer says 41 but it feels like 14! I heard snow maybe as far south as Hattiesburg?

[Joe-Nathan]

28F this morning at the house with heavy frost.

[dkmac]

26F here at the house in Covington. Went to wash the frost off of the better half's windshield before she went to work, but the water wouldn't come out of the garden hose!

[Joe-Nathan]

26F here at the house in Covington. Went to wash the frost off of the better half's windshield before she went to work, but the water wouldn't come out of the garden hose!

Mac, just turn the car on about 10 min before she leaves. That way the car will be warm and the windshield clean.