POSSIBLE SVR WX JAN 9th -10TH FOR SE TX, S LA and MISS

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[Joe-Nathan]

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
123 PM CST MON JAN 09 2012

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON

.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.

..REMARKS..

1238 PM FUNNEL CLOUD SANTA FE 29.38N 95.10W
01/09/2012 GALVESTON TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

0100 PM TORNADO 4 SE DICKINSON 29.41N 95.03W
01/09/2012 GALVESTON TX EMERGENCY MNGR

LAW ENFORCEMENT WITNESSED TOUCH DOWN NEAR MALL OF THE
MAINLAND IN TEXAS CITY. NO REPORTS OF DAMAGE THUS FAR.

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FLOODING AND STORM REPORTS FOR HOUSTON AREA:

NEWS 92FM

http://news92fm.com/?get-streaming-audio-player=1

[Joe-Nathan]

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0654 AM CST TUE JAN 10 2012

   VALID 101300Z - 111200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER MS
   VALLEY EWD ACROSS THE CNTRL GULF STATES...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   
   MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE SRN PLAINS IS FORECAST TO
   INTENSIFY AND GRADUALLY ASSUME A SLIGHT NEGATIVE TILT WHILE
   PROGRESSING INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY.  THIS WILL OCCUR AS ATTENDANT
   MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAKS ROUND THE TROUGH BASE INTO PORTIONS
   OF AL/GA OVERNIGHT...SUPPORTING A CORRIDOR OF 12-HR HEIGHT FALLS AT
   500 MB IN EXCESS OF 100 M ALONG THE SYSTEM TRACK.  IN THE LOW
   LEVELS...SURFACE LOW NEAR POE AS OF 12Z...WILL DEEPEN WHILE
   DEVELOPING NEWD TO THE MS DELTA REGION BY 11/00Z AND TO NEAR THE
   TN/KY BORDER /W OF HOP/ BY 11/12Z.  AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL
   CONCURRENTLY LIFT NWD THROUGH MS/AL INTO THE TN VALLEY BY TONIGHT
   WHILE A TRAILING COLD FRONT ADVANCES EWD THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY
   AND CNTRL GULF COAST.
   
   ...LOWER MS VALLEY INTO CNTRL GULF STATES...
   
   SUSTAINED SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WITHIN EXPANDING WARM SECTOR WILL ALLOW
   FOR THE NWD FLUX OF AN INCREASINGLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS
   MS/AL TODAY.  THIS PROCESS WILL OCCUR BENEATH COOLING MIDLEVEL
   TEMPERATURES AND A RESULTANT STEEPENING OF MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES
   ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER LOW.  HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD
   CLOUDS AND ONGOING CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION FROM NRN LA EWD INTO
   SRN/CNTRL PARTS OF MS/AL WILL HINDER THE DESTABILIZATION PROCESS
   WITH MLCAPE VALUES REMAINING BELOW 1000 J/KG AT MOST LOCATIONS.
   
   A RECENT INCREASE IN ELEVATED TSTM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER NWRN
   LA APPEARS TO BE THE MANIFESTATION OF WHERE THE STRONGER FORCING FOR
   ASCENT ALIGNS WITH THE STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND NWRN EXTENSION
   OF A MORE MOIST ENVIRONMENT /REF. 12Z SHV SOUNDING/.  EXPECT THIS
   REGIME TO SPREAD NEWD TODAY IN ADVANCE OF THE MIGRATORY SURFACE LOW
   WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS CAPABLE OF PRIMARILY SEVERE HAIL.
   
   THE TIMING OF SURFACE-BASED STORM EVOLUTION ALONG THE COLD FRONT IS
   A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN BASED ON THE DISPERSIVE SOLUTIONS OF THE LATEST
   MESOSCALE AND CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODELS.  THIS IS PERHAPS
   SYMPTOMATIC OF VARYING DEGREES OF INSTABILITY GENERATED BY EACH
   MODEL.  REGARDLESS...AS THE STRONGER LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT
   BEGINS TO OVERSPREAD THE WARM SECTOR...EXPECT A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
   SURFACE-BASED TSTM DEVELOPMENT FROM THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE LOW
   OVER THE ARKLAMISS SWD/SEWD ALONG THE COLD FRONT.  WHILE INSTABILITY
   WILL REMAIN MARGINAL...THE STRENGTHENING FORCING FOR ASCENT AND
   VERTICAL SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELL AND BOWING STRUCTURES
   INITIALLY ACROSS PARTS OF MS AND SERN LA...AND CONTINUING OVERNIGHT
   ACROSS AL AND THE FL PNHDL.  DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES WILL
   BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS WITH THESE STORMS.
   
   ..MEAD/BOTHWELL.. 01/10/2012
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z
   CURRENT UTC TIME: 1314Z (7:14AM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME 

[Joe-Nathan]

FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI

[Joe-Nathan]

CENTRAL ALABAMA:


A warm front is currently draped across northern Alabama early this morning, along with an upper level disturbance that is moving across the southeast. Scattered to numerous showers will continue across portions of the area through the morning hours


Severe weather will be possible across the southwest, mainly west of Interstate 65 starting around 3 pm Tuesday. The main threats in the afternoon will be damaging straight line winds and isolated tornadoes.


Beginning around 9 pm Tuesday evening, the cold front associated with this rather vigorous system will be moving through the state. As the cold front passes, severe weather will be possible. The best chance for severe weather will be across the southern half of the area, where damaging straight line winds, isolated tornadoes, hail, and localized flooding will be possible. Though the threat will be less across the north, there will still be the chance for hail and localized flooding. The threat should end by 3 am for central Alabama.

[Joe-Nathan]

MOBILE, ALABAMA AREA:

A low pressure system is expected to move slowly north northeast out of northern Louisiana and across the lower Mississippi river delta later today. This will bring a cold front across the north central gulf coast region. Warm...moist gulf air will interact with the approaching front causing an increase in the coverage of showers and embedded storms. Instability looks to be sufficient enough through the course of the day along with wind profiles to bring about a slight risk of severe storms. Although a large severe weather outbreak is not anticipated...there is the potential for a few brief and isolated tornadoes...localized damaging wind gusts and large hail in any severe storms. The best time frame for potential severe weather currently appears to be from approximately 3pm-midnight. Set NOAA weather radios to tone alert for possible watches and warnings later today. /10

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watch possible in MS

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Mesoscale Discussion 12

< Previous MD

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0012 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0354 PM CST TUE JAN 10 2012 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN LA...SCNTRL MS CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 102154Z - 102330Z AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS ERN LA AND SCNTRL MO THIS AFTERNOON. HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREATS AS THE STORMS GRADUALLY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WW ISSUANCE REMAINS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION. THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A 1006 MB SFC LOW OVER FAR NE LA WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SWD ACROSS SE LA WITH A STATIONARY FRONT LOCATED FROM NRN MS EWD ACROSS NRN AL. TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE SFC LOW...THE WARM SECTOR IS CHARACTERIZED BY WEAK INSTABILITY WITH MESOANALYSIS SHOWING MLCAPE VALUES IN THE 250 TO 500 J/KG ACROSS MUCH OF MS. IN SPITE OF THE WEAK INSTABILITY...A STRONGLY SHEARED WIND PROFILE WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 60 TO 70 KT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW ROTATING STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. COLD TEMPS ALOFT /500 MB TEMPS OF -14C TO -16C/ AND MARGINALLY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY BE ENOUGH FOR HAIL WITH THE MORE INTENSE CORES. A POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS MAY ALSO OCCUR BUT ANY THREAT SHOULD REMAIN VERY ISOLATED MAINLY DUE TO THE WEAK INSTABILITY. ..BROYLES.. 01/10/2012 ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX... LAT...LON 31438918 32038885 32718873 33328901 33578976 33279093 33009137 32409152 31259118 30439075 30309022 30928960 31438918

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SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA

136 PM EST SAT JAN 21 2012



GAC145-211900-

/O.CON.KFFC.TO.W.0003.000000T0000Z-120121T1900Z/

HARRIS GA-

136 PM EST SAT JAN 21 2012



...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 PM EST FOR HARRIS

COUNTY...



AT 135 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO

INDICATE A TORNADO. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED 7 MILES WEST OF

HAMILTON...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.



OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO PINE

MOUNTAIN-CALLAWAY GARDENS...PINE MOUNTAIN VALLEY...F.D. ROOSEVELT

STATE PARK...WAVERLY HALL AND SHILOH.



PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...



IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS DANGEROUS STORM...MOVE INDOORS AND TO

A BASEMENT OR INTERIOR ROOM ON THE FIRST FLOOR. STAY AWAY FROM

WINDOWS. IF DRIVING...DO NOT SEEK SHELTER UNDER A HIGHWAY OVERPASS.



IF YOU SEE WIND DAMAGE...HAIL OR FLOODING...WAIT UNTIL THE STORM HAS

PASSED...AND THEN CALL THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOLL FREE AT 1 8

6 6 7 6 3 4 4 6 6. YOU CAN ALSO TWEET YOUR REPORT USING HASHTAG GAWX.



A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM EST SATURDAY EVENING

FOR GEORGIA.