VALID 171300Z - 181200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM CENTRAL LA INTO NORTHERN
AL...
...LOWER OH VALLEY THIS MORNING...
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW IS IN PLACE TODAY OVER MOST OF THE CONUS...WITH
A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND
MID/UPPER MS VALLEY. A STRONG SURFACE COLD FRONT IS SWEEPING
EASTWARD ACROSS IL AND SOUTHEAST MO...AND WILL MOVE INTO THE LOWER
OH VALLEY LATER THIS MORNING. THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
FRONT HAVE RESULTED IN NUMEROUS REPORTS OF HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS
OVERNIGHT. THIS TREND IS LIKELY TO DIMINISH THROUGH LATE MORNING.
HOWEVER...POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN FOR SEVERE HAIL/WIND IN THE
STRONGEST STORMS. PLEASE REFER TO MCD #22 FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
...AR/LA/MS THRU EARLY AFTERNOON...
SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS A SUBTLE SOUTHERN-STREAM IMPULSE OVER
NORTHERN MEXICO/SOUTH TX WHICH WILL TRACK QUICKLY EASTWARD AND INTO
THE LOWER MS VALLEY BY AFTERNOON. INCREASING LARGE SCALE FORCING
FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE HAS LED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING OVER EAST TX AND SOUTHERN AR. THIS
ACTIVITY MAY PERSIST AND SPREAD EASTWARD INTO LA AND SOUTHERN MS
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY
COUPLED WITH STRONG DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR WILL POSE A RISK OF
ORGANIZED/SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS.
...MS/AL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
THE STRONG COLD FRONT NOW MOVING INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE TN VALLEY AND INTO NORTHERN MS/AL BY LATE AFTERNOON.
MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THIS AREA WILL BE RATHER SLOW TO
DESTABILIZE...WITH MLCAPE VALUES GENERALLY BELOW 500 J/KG.
HOWEVER...STRONG LOW LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR WILL
PROMOTE A RISK OF A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ALONG/AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN
THREAT...ALTHOUGH A TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON BEFORE THE LOW LEVEL JET BEGINS TO WEAKEN AND MOVE AWAY
FROM THE AREA.
..HART/LEITMAN.. 01/17/2012
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CURRENT UTC TIME: 1257Z (6:57AM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME
SVR WX THREAT FOR JAN 17-18, 2012 ACROSS DIXIE
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Originally Posted by ROLLTIDE
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