Solar blast headed our way

[dkmac]

Will hit the earth tomorrow:

By Alan Boyle






The sun has unleashed a blast in Earth's direction, and that should cause brighter-than-normal auroral displays this weekend. Skywatchers won't be the only ones monitoring the storm: The folks in charge of power grids and orbiting satellites will also be on guard to make sure the disturbance in the (geomagnetic) force won't be disruptive.

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Word of today's blast, technically known as a coronal mass ejection or CME, comes via SpaceWeather.com's Tony Phillips. NASA says the outburst sparked an M3.2-class solar flare, as well as a stream of electrically charged particles that is due to interact with Earth's magnetic field on Saturday. "Viewers can be on the lookout for increased aurora," NASA says.
M-class flares are capable of causing brief radio blackouts near the poles as well as minor radiation storms, but it's unlikely that this one will disrupt communication or power transmission networks. The forecast would be different if it were an X-class storm heading our way. As the sun approaches the peak of its 11-year activity cycle in 2013 or so, we can expect to see more powerful solar outbursts.
To keep tabs on the prospects for northern (or southern) lights, check SpaceWeather.com as well as the University of Alaska's Aurora Forecast website. The higher your latitude, the better your chances of seeing the lights. If you miss them, never fear: SpaceWeather.com will surely update its January aurora gallery over the weekend. And if you snag a great picture that you'd like to share, pass it along via the Cosmic Log Facebook page or msnbc.com's FirstPerson in-box.

http://cosmiclog.msnbc.msn.com/_news...eading-our-way

[Joe-Nathan]

FROM SPACEWX.COM
http://www.spaceweather.com/
INCOMING CME: Active sunspot 1401 erupted yesterday, Jan. 19th around 16:30 UT, producing an M3-class solar flare and a full-halo coronal mass ejection (CME). The Solar and Heliospheric Observatory recorded the cloud expanding almost directly toward Earth:

Analysts at the Goddard Space Weather Lab say strong geomagnetic storms are possible when the cloud arrives this weekend. Their animated forecast track predicts an impact on Jan. 21st at 22:30 UT (+/- 7 hrs).
The cloud is also heading for Mars, due to hit the Red Planet on Jan. 24th. NASA's Curiosity rover, en route to Mars now, is equipped to study solar storms and might be able to detect a change in the energetic particle environment when the CME passes by.

[Joe-Nathan]

Well this one arrived a little late:
SPACE WX.COM

JAN. 22ND CME IMPACT: Arriving

a little later than expected, a coronal mass ejection (CME) hit Earth's magnetic field at 0617 UT on Jan. 22nd. According to analysts at the Goddard Space Weather Lab, the CME strongly compressed Earth's magnetic field and briefly exposed satellites in geosynchronous orbit to solar wind plasma. For the next 24 hours, Earth's magnetic field reverberated from the impact, stirring bright auroras around the Arctic Circle. Bjørn Jørgensen observed this display from Tromsø, Norway:


"This was amazing," he says. "It was a wonderful experience to see these stunning auroras."

NOAA forecasters estimate a 10% - 25% chance of continued geomagnetic storms tonight as effects from the CME impact subside. The odds will increase again on Jan. 24-25 as a new CME (from today's M9-clare) approaches Earth. High-latitude sky watchers should remain alert for auroras.


The Jan. 22nd CME also disturbed Earth's ionosphere. In Atlanta, Georgia, radio engineer Pieter Ibelings monitored a 4.5 MHz CODAR (coastal radar) signal as it bounced off layers of ionization along the US east coast. "The moment of impact can be clearly seen on the CODAR radar plot," he points out:




"The CODAR transmitters are located all around the coast and are used for mapping the ocean currents to a distance of about 200 miles," Ibelings explains. "These signals also propagate through the ionosphere so they can be picked up all around the world. The signals are almost perfect for ionospheric sounding since they are linear chirps. I capture the chirp with a receiver locked to GPS both in frequency and time. I then de-chirp the waveform so I can extract the time of arrival information at my location."

The CODAR echoes show ionization layers shifting vertical position by some hundreds of kilometers, changes that surely affected the propagation of HF radio signals in the aftermath of the impact. More information about Ibelings' observations may be found here.