1/21/12-1/23/12 : Severe Threat

[wxchaser420]

Only two words can be used to describe the following model output:



Holy Shit ! ! ! ! !

[ROLLTIDE]

Looks like a nonevent to me

[ROLLTIDE]

Tornado Watch 2

< Previous WW

Public (Test) | Counties | Probabilities | Aviation | Warnings | Initial RADAR

Hazard Tornadoes EF2+ Tornadoes Likelihood Moderate Low Severe Wind 65 kt+ Wind Moderate Low Severe Hail 2"+ Hail Low Low Note: The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is replaced, cancelled or extended. Note: Click for Watch Status Reports. SEL2 URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 2 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1035 PM CST FRI JAN 20 2012 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN ALABAMA NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI SOUTHWEST AND MIDDLE TENNESSEE EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING FROM 1035 PM UNTIL 500 AM CST. TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 70 MILES NORTHWEST OF GREENWOOD MISSISSIPPI TO 75 MILES NORTHEAST OF HUNTSVILLE ALABAMA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ALONG A FRONT ACROSS TN. STORM COVERAGE/INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND STORMS WILL SPREAD EWD/SEWD OVERNIGHT AS A WEAK LOW DEVELOPS ACROSS TN...AND A MIDLEVEL TROUGH MOVES EWD FROM OK/AR/MO. THE WARM SECTOR S OF THE FRONT IS WEAKLY UNSTABLE WITH LOW-LEVEL AND DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR THAT IS FAVORABLE FOR EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS AND BOWING SEGMENTS. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT OVERNIGHT...BUT A TORNADO OR TWO MAY OCCUR IN THE MOIST/STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT...AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 26040. ...THOMPSON

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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN

1240 AM CST SAT JAN 21 2012



THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NASHVILLE HAS ISSUED A



* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

SOUTHEASTERN HICKMAN COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...

NORTHEASTERN LEWIS COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...

NORTHERN MAURY COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...

SOUTH CENTRAL WILLIAMSON COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...



* UNTIL 115 AM CST



* AT 1235 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS

STORM WAS LOCATED 8 MILES SOUTH OF CENTERVILLE...AND MOVING EAST AT

45 MPH.



* THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...

SPRING HILL AROUND 110 AM CST.

[dkmac]

Tornado watch 3

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 3
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
455 AM CST SAT JAN 21 2012

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ALABAMA
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN GEORGIA
EASTERN MISSISSIPPI
FAR SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA
SOUTHERN MIDDLE AND EAST TENNESSEE

EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY MORNING FROM 455 AM UNTIL NOON CST.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 80 STATUTE
MILES EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF
ATHENS GEORGIA TO 30 MILES SOUTH OF COLUMBUS MISSISSIPPI. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 2...

DISCUSSION...BAND OF WSW-ENE COLD FRONT TSTMS NOW IN NRN MS/NRN
AL/MIDDLE TN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ESEWD...WITH EMBEDDED SUSTAINED
STORMS/POSSIBLE SUPERCELLS POSING A RISK FOR LOCALLY DMGG WIND AND
PERHAPS A QLCS TORNADO. FARTHER S...MORE WDLY SCTD STORMS/POSSIBLE
SUPERCELLS MAY ARISE FROM PRE-FRONTAL CONFLUENCE BANDS NOW EXTENDING
FROM NEAR JAN ENE TO MCN/ATL. THESE MAY POSE A RISK FOR
TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY IN ERN AL AND GA WHERE LOW-LVL SRH SHOULD BE
GREATEST NEAR RESIDUAL WEDGE BOUNDARY/WARM FRONT. COMBINATION OF
MODEST DAYTIME HEATING AND INCREASING DPVA WITH APPROACH OF AR UPR
TROUGH MAY YIELD AN INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE AND STRENGTH
THROUGHOUT WW OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
400. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 26035.


...CORFIDI

Hazard Tornadoes EF2+ Tornadoes Likelihood Moderate Low

Severe Wind 65 kt+ Wind Moderate Low

Severe Hail 2"+ Hail Moderate Very Low

[SIZE=8pt]Note: See the experimental Public Watch (SEL) product with explicit hazard information section below. The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is replaced, cancelled or extended.[/SIZE]
Note: Click for Watch Status Reports.

SEL3 URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 3 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 455 AM CST SAT JAN 21 2012 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ALABAMA CENTRAL AND NORTHERN GEORGIA EASTERN MISSISSIPPI FAR SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA SOUTHERN MIDDLE AND EAST TENNESSEE EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY MORNING FROM 455 AM UNTIL NOON CST. SEVERAL TORNADOES SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS TO 70 MPH WIDELY SCATTERED LARGE HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 80 STATUTE MILES EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF ATHENS GEORGIA TO 30 MILES SOUTH OF COLUMBUS MISSISSIPPI. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3). REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 2... DISCUSSION...BAND OF WSW-ENE COLD FRONT TSTMS NOW IN NRN MS/NRN AL/MIDDLE TN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ESEWD...WITH EMBEDDED SUSTAINED STORMS/POSSIBLE SUPERCELLS POSING A RISK FOR LOCALLY DMGG WIND AND PERHAPS A QLCS TORNADO. FARTHER S...MORE WDLY SCTD STORMS/POSSIBLE SUPERCELLS MAY ARISE FROM PRE-FRONTAL CONFLUENCE BANDS NOW EXTENDING FROM NEAR JAN ENE TO MCN/ATL. THESE MAY POSE A RISK FOR TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY IN ERN AL AND GA WHERE LOW-LVL SRH SHOULD BE GREATEST NEAR RESIDUAL WEDGE BOUNDARY/WARM FRONT. COMBINATION OF MODEST DAYTIME HEATING AND INCREASING DPVA WITH APPROACH OF AR UPR TROUGH MAY YIELD AN INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE AND STRENGTH THROUGHOUT WW OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 400. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 26035. ...CORFIDI

Hazard Tornadoes EF2+ Tornadoes Likelihood Moderate Low

Severe Wind 65 kt+ Wind Moderate Low

Severe Hail 2"+ Hail Moderate Very Low

SEL3 URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 3 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 455 AM CST SAT JAN 21 2012 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ALABAMA CENTRAL AND NORTHERN GEORGIA EASTERN MISSISSIPPI FAR SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA SOUTHERN MIDDLE AND EAST TENNESSEE EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY MORNING FROM 455 AM UNTIL NOON CST. TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 80 STATUTE MILES EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF ATHENS GEORGIA TO 30 MILES SOUTH OF COLUMBUS MISSISSIPPI. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3). REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 2... DISCUSSION...BAND OF WSW-ENE COLD FRONT TSTMS NOW IN NRN MS/NRN AL/MIDDLE TN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ESEWD...WITH EMBEDDED SUSTAINED STORMS/POSSIBLE SUPERCELLS POSING A RISK FOR LOCALLY DMGG WIND AND PERHAPS A QLCS TORNADO. FARTHER S...MORE WDLY SCTD STORMS/POSSIBLE SUPERCELLS MAY ARISE FROM PRE-FRONTAL CONFLUENCE BANDS NOW EXTENDING FROM NEAR JAN ENE TO MCN/ATL. THESE MAY POSE A RISK FOR TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY IN ERN AL AND GA WHERE LOW-LVL SRH SHOULD BE GREATEST NEAR RESIDUAL WEDGE BOUNDARY/WARM FRONT. COMBINATION OF MODEST DAYTIME HEATING AND INCREASING DPVA WITH APPROACH OF AR UPR TROUGH MAY YIELD AN INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE AND STRENGTH THROUGHOUT WW OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 400. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 26035. ...CORFIDI

Hazard Tornadoes EF2+ Tornadoes Likelihood Moderate Low

Severe Wind 65 kt+ Wind Moderate Low

Severe Hail 2"+ Hail Moderate Very Low

Note: Click for Watch Status Reports.

WOUS64 KWNS 211052 WOU3 BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 3 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 455 AM CST SAT JAN 21 2012 TORNADO WATCH 3 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1200 PM CST FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS ALC001-007-009-015-017-019-021-027-029-037-043-047-049-051-055- 057-059-063-065-071-073-075-079-081-083-087-089-091-093-095-103- 105-107-111-113-115-117-119-121-123-125-127-133-211800- /O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0003.120121T1055Z-120121T1800Z/ AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AUTAUGA BIBB BLOUNT CALHOUN CHAMBERS CHEROKEE CHILTON CLAY CLEBURNE COOSA CULLMAN DALLAS DEKALB ELMORE ETOWAH FAYETTE FRANKLIN GREENE HALE JACKSON JEFFERSON LAMAR LAWRENCE LEE LIMESTONE MACON MADISON MARENGO MARION MARSHALL MORGAN PERRY PICKENS RANDOLPH RUSSELL SHELBY ST. CLAIR SUMTER TALLADEGA TALLAPOOSA TUSCALOOSA WALKER WINSTON GAC009-011-013-015-021-035-045-047-053-055-057-059-063-067-077- 079-083-085-089-097-111-113-115-117-121-123-125-129-133-135-139- 141-143-145-149-151-153-157-159-163-169-171-187-193-195-197-199- 207-211-213-215-217-219-221-223-225-227-231-233-237-247-249-255- 263-265-269-281-285-289-291-293-295-297-301-303-311-313-317-319- 211800- /O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0003.120121T1055Z-120121T1800Z/ GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BALDWIN BANKS BARROW BARTOW BIBB BUTTS CARROLL CATOOSA CHATTAHOOCHEE CHATTOOGA CHEROKEE CLARKE CLAYTON COBB COWETA CRAWFORD DADE DAWSON DEKALB DOUGLAS FANNIN FAYETTE FLOYD FORSYTH FULTON GILMER GLASCOCK GORDON GREENE GWINNETT HALL HANCOCK HARALSON HARRIS HEARD HENRY HOUSTON JACKSON JASPER JEFFERSON JONES LAMAR LUMPKIN MACON MADISON MARION MERIWETHER MONROE MORGAN MURRAY MUSCOGEE NEWTON OCONEE OGLETHORPE PAULDING PEACH PICKENS PIKE POLK PUTNAM ROCKDALE SCHLEY SPALDING TALBOT TALIAFERRO TAYLOR TOWNS TROUP TWIGGS UNION UPSON WALKER WALTON WARREN WASHINGTON WHITE WHITFIELD WILKES WILKINSON MSC019-025-069-087-103-105-155-159-211800- /O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0003.120121T1055Z-120121T1800Z/ MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHOCTAW CLAY KEMPER LOWNDES NOXUBEE OKTIBBEHA WEBSTER WINSTON NCC039-043-211800- /O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0003.120121T1055Z-120121T1800Z/ NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEROKEE CLAY TNC011-051-065-103-107-115-121-123-127-139-153-211800- /O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0003.120121T1055Z-120121T1800Z/ TN . TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BRADLEY FRANKLIN HAMILTON LINCOLN MARION MCMINN MEIGS MONROE MOORE POLK SEQUATCHIE ATTN...WFO...BMX...MRX...HUN...JAN...FFC...

Hazard Tornadoes EF2+ Tornadoes Likelihood Moderate Low

Severe Wind 65 kt+ Wind Moderate Low

Severe Hail 2"+ Hail Moderate Very Low

[SIZE=8pt]Note: The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area. The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.[/SIZE]

SAW3 WW 3 TORNADO AL GA MS NC TN 211055Z - 211800Z AXIS..80 STATUTE MILES EITHER SIDE OF LINE.. 20NNE AHN/ATHENS GA/ - 30S CBM/COLUMBUS MS/ ..AVIATION COORDS.. 70NM EITHER SIDE /29S ODF - 17SSE IGB/ HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS. MAX TOPS TO 400. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 26035. LAT...LON 33088293 32068819 34338872 35348347 THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS FOR WOU3.
Watch 3 Status Report Message has not been issued yet.

[ROLLTIDE]

SHEAR ALL COME TOGETHER FROM ABOUT 5PM THROUGH 2AM ACROSS
OUR REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...CONFIDENCE GROWING THAT WE WILL HAVE A
SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE WEATHER EVENT. MAIN QUESTION MARK REMAINS STORM
MODE BECAUSE THERE COULD BE ENOUGH OF A MID LEVEL CAP TO KEEP STORMS
INITIATING ONLY IN A LINEAR MANNER. EVEN IN THIS CASE THOUGH...
EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES WILL BE A CONCERN ALONG WITH THE
HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE.

JAN

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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA

1134 AM EST SAT JAN 21 2012



THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PEACHTREE CITY HAS ISSUED A



* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

COWETA COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL GEORGIA

HEARD COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL GEORGIA



* UNTIL 1215 PM EST



* AT 1130 AM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 7 MILES WEST OF

FRANKLIN...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.



* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO

CENTRALHATCHEE...CORINTH...NEWNAN...MORELAND...SEN OIA...TURIN AND

SHARPSBURG.

[ROLLTIDE]

How about some dual pole

[ROLLTIDE]

moderate risk possible tomorrow

Updated: Sat Jan 21 17:33:06 UTC 2012 (Print Version)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Probabilistic

Population Cities CWAs Interstates Counties ARTCC FEMA Regions
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe weather within 25 miles of a point. (More Info)
Forecast Discussion

SPC AC 211730

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1130 AM CST SAT JAN 21 2012

VALID 221200Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH/LOWER AND
MIDDLE MS VALLEY TO OH/TN VALLEYS...

...SYNOPSIS...
A PROGRESSIVE LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY OVER
THE CONUS. AN UPPER TROUGH /AND ASSOCIATED STRONG MID-UPPER JET/ NOW
OVER THE CONUS WEST COAST WILL REACH THE PLAINS EARLY SUNDAY...AND
EVENTUALLY TAKE ON MORE OF A NEGATIVE TILT TOWARD THE MIDDLE/UPPER
MS RIVER VALLEY AND MIDWEST SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE A
CONSIDERABLE FACTOR IN TERMS OF SEVERE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY. FARTHER WEST...A SECONDARY
UPPER TROUGH/STRONG JET ALOFT WILL REACH THE WEST COAST BY EARLY
MONDAY.

...ARKLATEX/OZARKS AND MID-SOUTH TO MS/TN RIVER VALLEYS...
AN APPRECIABLE SEVERE EVENT IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY...INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES AND
DAMAGING WINDS. AN UPGRADE TO A CATEGORICAL MODERATE RISK MAY BE
WARRANTED IN SUBSEQUENT OUTLOOKS FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION.

GIVEN THE LARGE SCALE SCENARIO AS PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED...AND THAT A
RELATIVELY MOISTURE-RICH AIRMASS WILL ONLY BE SUPPRESSED TO THE GULF
COAST REGION WITH THE DAY-1 FRONTAL PASSAGE...A RELATIVELY
QUICK/QUALITY RETURN OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS ANTICIPATED
ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING PLAINS UPPER
TROUGH. THIS RELATIVELY MOIST/BROAD WARM SECTOR WILL BE TO THE
EAST-SOUTHWARD OF THE PRIMARY SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS FROM THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE LOWER MO VALLEY AND EVENTUALLY THE LAKE
MI VICINITY BY EARLY MONDAY. NEAR AN EASTWARD-ADVANCING DRY LINE AND
/MORE SO/ PACIFIC FRONT...INITIAL DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT MAY
OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ARKLATEX/MID-SOUTH AS EARLY AS LATE
AFTERNOON /OR MORE LIKELY/ SUNDAY EVENING. MORE DISCRETE/POTENTIALLY
SUPERCELLULAR DEVELOPMENT COULD ALSO OCCUR ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR
ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUALLY
MOISTENS/CAPPING ALOFT ABATES.

GIVEN MORE THAN ADEQUATE MOISTURE/DESTABILIZATION...A ROBUST WIND
FIELD /HIGHLIGHTED BY 90-100 KT AROUND 500 MB AND 55-65 KT WITHIN
THE LOWEST 1-2 KM/ WILL FAVOR HIGHLY ORGANIZED STORM MODES WITH
ASSOCIATED SEVERE POTENTIAL SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY EVENING...WITH AN
ISOLATED STRONG TORNADO/WIND DAMAGE EPISODE PLAUSIBLE. CURRENT
THINKING IS THAT A MULTI-FACETED STORM MODE SHOULD EVOLVE THROUGH
SUNDAY EARLY/MID-EVENING...INCLUDING INITIAL SEMI-DISCRETE
SUPERCELLS AHEAD OF WHAT WILL BE A TENDENCY FOR
QUICK-CLUSTERING/LINEAR EVOLUTION IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE
ADVANCING PACIFIC COLD FRONT. A PREVALENT QUASI-LINEAR MODE/FAST
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD MOVING SQUALL LINE IS LIKELY BY LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY FROM MS/AL INTO PORTIONS OF THE TN VALLEY/LOWER
OH VALLEY. AS SUCH...THE SEVERE THREAT /IN AN ISOLATED SENSE AT THE
VERY LEAST/ WILL LIKELY CONTINUE WELL THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS OF MONDAY.

...OH VALLEY...
FARTHER NORTH...THE EXACT DEGREE OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING AND
DESTABILIZATION IS INHERENTLY MORE QUESTIONABLE...ESPECIALLY GIVEN
RECENT WINTER-TYPE PRECIPITATION ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST
WHICH PARTIALLY COINCIDES WITH THE EXPECTED SURFACE LOW TRACK/BRUNT
OF DPVA AS THE UPPER SYSTEM EVENTUALLY TAKES ON A MORE NEGATIVE
TILT. THAT SAID...A ROBUST WIND FIELD/LATE NIGHT DEEPENING PHASE OF
THE CYCLONE MAY CONTRIBUTE TO A RESPECTABLE THREAT FOR WIND
DAMAGE/PERHAPS A FEW TORNADOES EVEN WHERE NEAR-SURFACE INSTABILITY
IS SCANT ACROSS THE LOWER OH VALLEY.

..GUYER.. 01/21/2012

[ROLLTIDE]

I will be streaming live after 5pm tomorrow

[ROLLTIDE]

...

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA

136 PM EST SAT JAN 21 2012



GAC145-211900-

/O.CON.KFFC.TO.W.0003.000000T0000Z-120121T1900Z/

HARRIS GA-

136 PM EST SAT JAN 21 2012



...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 PM EST FOR HARRIS

COUNTY...



AT 135 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO

INDICATE A TORNADO. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED 7 MILES WEST OF

HAMILTON...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.



OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO PINE

MOUNTAIN-CALLAWAY GARDENS...PINE MOUNTAIN VALLEY...F.D. ROOSEVELT

STATE PARK...WAVERLY HALL AND SHILOH.



PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...



IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS DANGEROUS STORM...MOVE INDOORS AND TO

A BASEMENT OR INTERIOR ROOM ON THE FIRST FLOOR. STAY AWAY FROM

WINDOWS. IF DRIVING...DO NOT SEEK SHELTER UNDER A HIGHWAY OVERPASS.



IF YOU SEE WIND DAMAGE...HAIL OR FLOODING...WAIT UNTIL THE STORM HAS

PASSED...AND THEN CALL THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOLL FREE AT 1 8

6 6 7 6 3 4 4 6 6. YOU CAN ALSO TWEET YOUR REPORT USING HASHTAG GAWX.



A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM EST SATURDAY EVENING

FOR GEORGIA.

[ROLLTIDE]

Live Tracker for Thursday

">

[wxchaser420]

Looks like a nonevent to me

Sounds a forecasting face-off.



If that's a non-event, I promise to quit chasing cold turkey and move out of the mid-south for good. Judging by how it looks today, I see 4-12 tornadoes.

[johnathan]

I see you have some Baron like SCIT Icons. Can I get a copy of them man?

[ROLLTIDE]

I see you have some Baron like SCIT Icons. Can I get a copy of them man?

Check your email

[ROLLTIDE]

Sounds a forecasting face-off.



If that's a non-event, I promise to quit chasing cold turkey and move out of the mid-south for good. Judging by how it looks today, I see 4-12 tornadoes.

I was saying that Friday and Sat would be nonevents . Are you heading out for a night chase ?

[johnathan]

Check your email

Thanks Bro!

[ROLLTIDE]

[wxchaser420]

I was saying that Friday and Sat would be nonevents . Are you heading out for a night chase ?

Man, I wish...Just got out of jail, and my car is wrecked. Should be getting another car here hopefully soon.

Ill be in Tupelo with my camera phone if anything pops off though...