INVEST 90L

[ROLLTIDE]

[ROLLTIDE]

[sircane]

It's Hurricane season already! ? :P

[ROLLTIDE]

This should be INVEST 91L and not 90L

[sircane]

The systems may be confused by a February disturbance.

[Gazelle2]

I know that it has ME confused.

[johnathan]

BRING IT HURRICANE SEASON!

[ROLLTIDE]

So do I need to pack up my gear and head to FL for an intercept ? j/k Have a great day everybody and welcome back

[Joe-Nathan]

Not surprised since the tropical jet has been so active since Jan. We had probably two weeks straight with above normal temps.

[johnathan]

CODE ORANGE

[sircane]

It has good rotation to it... Won't be surprised if it's at TD at least at landfall.

[Squirrelmonkey]

Insane!

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[ced_pearlandtx]

And my parents just got on a cruise out of Galveston today heading for Cozumel... Crazy stuff....

[uptjeff]

this is awesome. do any of the models have this thing strengthen?

[ROLLTIDE]

It has good rotation to it... Won't be surprised if it's at TD at least at landfall.

No chance of being a TD but a STD isn't out of the question

[dkmac]

Jeff Masters:

OK, this is officially nuts. The first Super Sunday Invest in history formed this morning in the Yucatan Channel between Mexico and Cuba, and is slowly becoming more organized as it moves northeast towards Southwest Florida. The new disturbance, dubbed Invest 90L by NHC late this morning, has a modest but growing area of heavy thunderstorms near its center. Visible satellite imagery shows a pronounced spin at middle levels of the atmosphere, and 90L may be able to close off a surface circulation if it can find 24 more hours of marginally favorable conditions. Radar loops out of La Bajada on the western tip of Cuba show heavy thunderstorms over Western Cuba, but there is no organization of the echoes into low-level spiral bands. Wind shear is a high 20 - 25 knots, which is marginal for tropical storm formation. Ocean temperatures in the Yucatan Channel are 26 - 26.5°C (79 - 80°F), which is also marginal. 90L is suffering from ingestion of dry air along its western flanks, courtesy of an upper-level trough over the Gulf of Mexico, as seen on water vapor satellite imagery.


Figure 1. Is this football season or baseball season? The Super Sunday Invest 90L looks more characteristic of something we'd expect to see in May.

Forecast for 90L
Both the GFS and ECMWF models predict that the shear will remain below 25 knots through Monday, so there is some potential for continued development of 90L as it moves northeast towards South Florida. On Monday afternoon or evening, the storm will merge with a cold front and move over South Florida, bringing heavy rains of 1 - 3 inches and sustained winds of 20 - 25 mph. If it develops into a tropical depression or tropical storm, which I put at a 20% chance, the winds and rains will be higher. I doubt 90L has enough time or favorable enough conditions to become a tropical or subtropical depression, especially considering the disturbance's small size. There is a historical precedent for a tropical storm this time of year in this location--the 1952 Groundhog's Day tropical storm that hit Southwest Florida. According to Wikipedia,

The 1952 Groundhog Day Storm was the only Atlantic tropical cyclone on record in the month of February. First observed in the western Caribbean Sea on February 2, it moved rapidly throughout its duration and struck southwestern Florida within 24 hours of forming. In the state, the winds damaged some crops and power lines, but no serious damage was reported.

Jeff Masters

[dkmac]

NHC:

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 AM EST MON FEB 6 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM WESTERN CUBA NORTHWARD
INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS IS INTERACTING WITH A MID TO UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH. WHILE THIS SYSTEM IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF AN ORGANIZED SURFACE
CIRCULATION AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME LESS
FAVORABLE FOR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION DURING THE DAY TODAY.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF ANY
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL AND ISOLATED GUSTY WINDS OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
CUBA...THE FLORIDA KEYS AND SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY AS IT MOVES
GENERALLY NORTHEASTWARD NEAR 15 MPH. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS
SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN OFFSHORE WATERS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIAOFFNT3 AND WMO
HEADER FZNT23 KNHC...AND IN PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. THIS WILL BE THE LAST SPECIAL
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ISSUED ON THIS SYSTEM.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.


$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[Squirrelmonkey]

No chance of being a TD but a STD isn't out of the question

I cant quite figure out how I havent experienced one of these yet:D

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[ROLLTIDE]

I cant quite figure out how I havent experienced one of these yet:D

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I am not going to touch that one

[Katfive]

I am not going to touch that one

MuNkIe should have followed that advice!