Slight chance of severe Wednesday night into Thursday morning

[dkmac]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BdoWGS--FOE

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1229 AM CST TUE FEB 14 2012

VALID 151200Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS WED AND WED NIGHT ACROSS PARTS
OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS EASTWARD THROUGH THE CNTRL GULF STATES...

...SYNOPSIS...
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE GENERAL LARGE SCALE PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THIS FORECAST PERIOD. MODELS INDICATE THAT A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE
IMPULSES WILL CONTINUE TO EMERGE FROM A STRONG MID LATITUDE PACIFIC
JET AND PROGRESS AROUND BROADER SCALE EASTERN PACIFIC UPPER
RIDGING...BEFORE SPLITTING OFF INTO AT LEAST A COUPLE OF LINGERING
BRANCHES OF STRONGER FLOW ACROSS NORTH AMERICA. AS A RESULT...THE
VIGOROUS CLOSED LOW/SHORT WAVE TROUGH...NOW DIGGING INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLATEAU...IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN PROGRESSIVE...AND LIKELY BE
IN THE PROCESS OF ACCELERATING EAST NORTHEAST OF THE ROCKIES BY
EARLY WEDNESDAY. GUIDANCE STILL INDICATES THAT THIS WILL BE
PRECEDED BY THE NORTHWARD EXPANSION OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGING INTO THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST STATES. BUT THE UPSTREAM
IMPULSE MAY RESULT IN SOME SUPPRESSION OF THE RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTH
CENTRAL GULF STATES INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...AS IT LIFTS
NORTHEAST OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

CONSIDERABLE SPREAD PERSISTS AMONG THE VARIOUS MODELS CONCERNING THE
ASSOCIATED LOW-LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS...WHICH WILL SUBSTANTIALLY IMPACT
POTENTIAL FOR INLAND BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/CENTRAL GULF STATES...AS WELL AS THE LOW-LEVEL
SHEAR. HOWEVER...A SUBSTANTIVE INLAND RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE OFF
THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SEEMS PROBABLE...WITH A TONGUE OF
PRECIPITABLE WATER ON THE ORDER OF 1 TO 1.5+ INCHES ADVECTING
NORTHWARD ACROSS AND EAST OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO THE RISK FOR THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL STATES...WITH
POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST A FEW SEVERE STORMS.

...SOUTHEAST TEXAS EASTWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL GULF STATES...
ALTHOUGH MUCH MODEL VARIABILITY PERSISTS...THE NAM/SREF...GFS AND
ECMWF ARE FAIRLY CLOSE WITH A FOCUSED AREA OF DIFLUENT UPPER
FLOW...BETWEEN THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...
SHIFTING FROM PARTS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS THROUGH NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
LOUISIANA/MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THIS MAY PROVE FAVORABLE FOR AN ASSOCIATED REGION OF
STRONG AND FOCUSED ASCENT...AIDED BY LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION...TO
INTERCEPT RICHER MOISTURE RETURN. AND THE ENVIRONMENT PROBABLY WILL
BECOME CONDUCIVE TO THE EVOLUTION OF AN ORGANIZED STORM CLUSTER...OR
CLUSTERS...AND PERHAPS DISCRETE SUPERCELLS...AS WEST SOUTHWESTERLY
500 MB FLOW STRENGTHENS TO 50-70+ KT.

THE ECMWF HAS BEEN MORE SUGGESTIVE THAN THE OTHER MODELS OF
POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SURFACE CYCLONE DEEPENING ACROSS THE
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PERHAPS AIDED BY PHASING
OF THE SOUTHERN BRANCH IMPULSE WITH A DIGGING NORTHERN BRANCH
TROUGH. IF THIS OCCURS...STRONGER SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS COULD AID
BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION ACROSS MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA...WITH
STRONGER SOUTHERLY 850 MB FLOW ALSO CONTRIBUTING TO LARGE AND
CLOCKWISE CURVED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS. THIS WOULD PROVIDE POTENTIAL
FOR A GREATER SEVERE RISK THAN CURRENTLY INDICATED...INCLUDING THE
POSSIBILITY OF A STRONG TORNADO OR TWO.

..KERR.. 02/14/2012

[ROLLTIDE]

yuck at the setup

[ROLLTIDE]

[Joe-Nathan]

FROM LAKE CHARLES NWS:

There is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms across the entire area today and tonight. Thunderstorms are expected to begin developing across east Texas and into Western Louisiana early this afternoon...spreading East through the remainder of the area through the rest of the afternoon and evening...and into the overnight hours across parts of east and South Central Louisiana. Damaging winds and tornadoes are the primary risks associated with any severe thunderstorms...though large hail is also possible. In addition to the risk of severe weather...very high atmospheric moisture will result in the potential for locally heavy rainfall...as thunderstorms will be capable of intense rainfall rates.

[Joe-Nathan]

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
557 AM CST WED FEB 15 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST
GULF OF MEXICO...CENTRAL LOUISIANA...SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...WEST CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

DAY ONE
TODAY AND TONIGHT
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ENTIRE
OUTLOOK AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN DEVELOPING ACROSS EAST TEXAS
AND INTO WESTERN LOUISIANA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...SPREADING EAST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS PARTS
OF EAST AND SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA.

DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES ARE THE PRIMARY RISKS ASSOCIATED WITH
ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...THOUGH LARGE HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

IN ADDITION TO THE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER...VERY HIGH ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...AS THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF INTENSE RAINFALL
RATES.

DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN
THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
THE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME TO AN END BY LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY MORNING WITH THE PASSAGE OF A
COOL FRONT.

GOOD RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN TO THE REGION FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY...BUT NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

STORM SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED TODAY AND TONIGHT.

[Joe-Nathan]

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0659 AM CST WED FEB 15 2012

   VALID 151300Z - 161200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT
   OVER PORTIONS OF SERN TX...LA AND SWRN/SRN MS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   
   DOWNSTREAM FROM A MIDLEVEL IMPULSE PROGRESSING SWD INTO THE LOWER CO
   VALLEY...A VIGOROUS SHORT-WAVE TROUGH OVER THE CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS
   WILL WEAKEN/DE-AMPLIFY WHILE LIFTING NEWD INTO AN INCREASINGLY
   CONFLUENT FLOW REGIME OVER THE MID-MS VALLEY.  THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
   ATTENDED BY A 70-80 KT MIDLEVEL JET STREAK AND A CORRIDOR OF MODEST
   HEIGHT FALLS.  HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THAT THIS FORCING FOR ASCENT
   WILL REMAIN DISPLACED TO THE N OF THE SURFACE WARM SECTOR WITH
   SLIGHT HEIGHT RISES FORECAST TODAY AND TONIGHT ACROSS THE GULF COAST
   REGION.  
   
   AT THE SURFACE...LEE CYCLONE OVER FAR NERN NM WILL DEVELOP GENERALLY
   EWD ACROSS OK TODAY BEFORE ACCELERATING NEWD INTO IND BY 16/12Z IN
   TANDEM WITH THE WEAKENING MIDLEVEL SYSTEM.  A TRAILING COLD FRONT
   ANALYZED OVER WRN TX WILL ACCORDINGLY ADVANCE EWD ACROSS THE SRN
   PLAINS...REACHING THE LOWER MS VALLEY BY THU MORNING.  A COUPLE OF
   WARM FRONTS WERE EVIDENT AS OF 12Z...ONE EXTENDING FROM THE
   INTERSECTION WITH THE PACIFIC FRONT OVER NWRN TX AND THEN ARCING
   SEWD THROUGH SERN TX INTO THE SHELF WATERS OF THE NWRN GULF OF
   MEXICO.  THE OTHER --DELINEATING MORE OF AN MT AIR MASS FROM THAT OF
   CP IN ORIGIN-- EXTENDED FROM DEEP S TX ENEWD ALONG THE LOWER/MIDDLE
   TX COAST.  EXPECT BOTH OF THESE BOUNDARIES TO GRADUALLY LIFT NWD IN
   ADVANCE OF EWD-PROGRESSING COLD FRONT.  
   
   ...SRN PLAINS INTO LOWER MS VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...
   
   MOISTURE AND WARM ADVECTIONS OCCURRING ALONG A BROAD 30-40 KT LLJ
   AXIS FROM CNTRL/ERN TX INTO THE OZARK PLATEAU HAVE GIVEN RISE TO
   WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS THIS MORNING WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT OF
   MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7-7.5 C/KM AND MUCAPE VALUES OF UP TO 500
   J/KG.  EXPECT THESE STORMS TO SHIFT EWD ACROSS THE OZARK PLATEAU
   REGION THIS MORNING WITH SOME SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE.  IN THE WAKE OF
   THIS INITIAL ACTIVITY...LATEST CONSENSUS OF CONVECTION-ALLOWING AND
   MESOSCALE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT MORE ROBUST SURFACE-BASED
   TSTM DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR BY EARLY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE PACIFIC
   FRONT INVOF SRN-MOST WARM FRONT LIFTING NWD THROUGH ERN PARTS OF THE
   HILL COUNTRY AND MIDDLE TX COAST.  
   
   12Z OBSERVED BRO/CRP SOUNDINGS INDICATE A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER /I.E.
   100-MB MEAN-MIXING RATIOS OF 13.5-15.5 G PER KG/ BENEATH AN EML
   CHARACTERIZED BY A CAPPING INVERSION BASED AROUND 850 MB AND
   MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7.5 C/KM.  THE PRESENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL
   CIRRUS SHIELD WILL SLOW DAYTIME HEATING WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
   WARM FRONT LIKELY BEING THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR CAP REMOVAL AND
   SUBSEQUENT TSTM DEVELOPMENT.  CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND FORECAST
   HODOGRAPHS DEPICT A VERTICALLY VEERING WIND PROFILE WITH MODEST LOW-
   AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WHICH WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF ROTATING STORMS
   CAPABLE OF A TORNADO OR TWO...DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS SOME 
   HAIL.  
   
   EXPECT ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SEVERE TSTMS TO MOVE/DEVELOP EWD
   INTO PORTIONS OF CNTRL/SRN LA/SWRN MS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO
   TONIGHT...ALONG AND S OF WARM FRONT SLOWLY LIFTING NWD.  DAMAGING
   WINDS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY HAZARDS
   IN ASSOCIATION WITH ANY MORE PERSISTENT ROTATING STORMS.
   
   ...N CNTRL OK INTO THE OZARK PLATEAU THIS AFTERNOON...
   
   THE RE-DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS APPEARS
   POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW AND WEAKENING
   MIDLEVEL SYSTEM.  HERE...STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL ALIGN
   WITH 500-MB TEMPERATURES AOB -20C...YIELDING A THERMODYNAMIC
   ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF SOME HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.
   
   ..MEAD/COHEN.. 02/15/2012
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z
   CURRENT UTC TIME: 1322Z (7:22AM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME 

[ROLLTIDE]

Joe are you going to be streaming live today ?

[Joe-Nathan]

Nope, stuck at the office working 11 hour days. Way to busy.

But I might get out tonight provided there is anything near bye.

[Joe-Nathan]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0118
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0126 PM CST WED FEB 15 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...N-CNTRL/NERN OK...FAR S-CNTRL/SERN KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 151926Z - 152100Z

A BRIEF WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY WILL EXIST FOR A FEW SURFACE BASED
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS OF N-CNTRL/NERN OK
AND FAR S-CNTRL/SERN KS. MARGINALLY SVR HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT
A WW IS UNLIKELY.

AT 19Z...SUBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
OVER NWRN/N-CNTRL OK...WITH AN OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDING SWD FROM THE
LOW ACROSS CNTRL OK INTO NRN TX. SURFACE WINDS W OF THE OCCLUDED
FRONT HAVE ACCELERATED OUT OF THE W AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER BECOMES
WELL MIXED BENEATH A MIDLEVEL VORT LOBE ADVANCING EWD ACROSS WRN OK.
MEANWHILE...LOW 50S SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE ADVECTING NWD INTO N-CNTRL
OK IMMEDIATELY E OF THE OCCLUDED FRONT. TRANSITION ZONE BETWEEN
STRONGER SURFACE HEATING OVER WRN OK AND MOISTENING OVER
CNTRL/N-CNTRL OK WILL CONTINUE TO AID IN DESTABILIZATION WITH SBCAPE
VALUES UP TO 500 J/KG POSSIBLE BY MID AFTERNOON. THIS MAY FAVOR
ISOLATED SURFACE BASED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS CONVERGENCE ALONG
THE FRONT INCREASES DURING THE NEXT FEW HRS. MIDLEVEL SWLY FLOW AOA
50 KT IS CONTRIBUTING TOWARD STRONG DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
/I.E. 0-6 KM BULK WIND DIFFERENCE EXCEEDING 70 KT/...WHICH WILL
FAVOR ORGANIZED LOW-TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS. THE STRONG SHEAR COMBINED
WITH MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AOA 7 C/KM SUGGESTS STRONGER CORES MAY
POSE A THREAT FOR MARGINALLY SVR HAIL. HOWEVER...SIGNIFICANT
LIMITING FACTOR FOR GREATER SVR WEATHER THREAT WILL BE TENDENCY FOR
STORMS TO ENCOUNTER COOL/STABLE AIRMASS E OF THE FRONT /WHICH MAY
LIMIT STORM PERSISTENCE AND STRENGTH/...WHERE LOW CLOUDS HAVE BEEN
SLOW TO ERODE.

..GARNER.. 02/15/2012


ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...ICT...OUN...

LAT...LON 35239728 36719809 37349772 37689679 37529515 36409461
35549479 35009602 35239728

[Joe-Nathan]

HERE WE GO:



MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0119
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0314 PM CST WED FEB 15 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST TX TO LA AND SOUTHERN AR/SOUTHWEST MS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 152114Z - 152245Z

BOUTS OF ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL/GUSTY WINDS MAY PERSIST ACROSS
NORTHERN/CENTRAL PORTIONS OF LA INTO ADJACENT PARTS OF AR/MS THROUGH
LATE AFTERNOON. A SEVERE THREAT /AND HEAVY RAINFALL/ MAY ALSO
INCREASE TO A DEGREE THROUGH MID/LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS COASTAL
SOUTHEAST TX. A WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED IN EITHER
CASE...BUT THE NEED FOR A WATCH CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS SOUTHEAST
TX IF A CONVECTIVE UPSWING OCCURS.

AT MID-AFTERNOON...A WELL-SUSTAINED/INCREASINGLY ORGANIZED AND
MAINLY ELEVATED CONVECTIVE QUASI-LINEAR COMPLEX CONTINUES TO
STEADILY EXPAND/PROGRESS EAST-NORTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHERN/CENTRAL
LA. ON THIS NORTH AND EAST PERIPHERY OF THIS MCS...SUSTAINED
ASCENT/WARM ADVECTION AND THE PRESENCE OF WEAK ELEVATED BUOYANCY MAY
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SOME SEVERE HAIL THREAT...ALTHOUGH SUCH A RISK
WILL TEND TO REMAIN EPISODIC/MARGINAL IN NATURE. AN EXPANDING MCS
COLD POOL AND THE INCREASINGLY ORGANIZED NATURE OF THE MCS
/INCLUDING APPARENT MCV TENDENCIES/ LEADS CREDENCE TO SOME POTENTIAL
FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS...ALTHOUGH THE ELEVATED NATURE OF THE MCS AND
MODEST LAPSE RATES/BUOYANCY AHEAD OF IT SHOULD CONTINUE TO TEMPER
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE-CALIBER DOWNDRAFTS...EVEN WHERE MODEST CLOUD
BREAKS AND SURFACE HEATING /AROUND 70 F/ ARE OCCURRING IN
SOUTH-CENTRAL LA.

FARTHER SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN OF SOUTHEAST TX...MOIST
LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENCE IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF A SLOWLY ADVANCING PACIFIC
COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT CONVECTIVE REGENERATION WITH A
SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST ORIENTED CORRIDOR. ALONG WITH A SUSTAINED HEAVY
RAINFALL THREAT...SOME SURFACE BASED SEVERE THREAT COULD MATERIALIZE
ON THE SOUTHWEST FLANK OF THE CURRENT MCS WHERE THE AIRMASS HAS
DESTABILIZED /750-1500 J PER KG/ AMID A VERY MOIST AIRMASS /NEAR 70F
SURFACE DEWPOINTS/ AND LIMITED CLOUD BREAKS. WHILE THE COMBINATION
OF VERTICAL SHEAR/INSTABILITY COULD SUPPORT A SEVERE THREAT
INCLUDING SUPERCELLS...PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER AND MODEST CONVERGENCE
AMID NEBULOUS LARGE SCALE INFLUENCES ARE CONTRIBUTING TO UNCERTAINTY
TO THE EXTENT/LIKELIHOOD OF THE SEVERE RISK.
NONETHELESS...CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR
THE POSSIBILITY OF AN INCREASING SEVERE THREAT ACROSS SOUTHEAST TX
THIS AFTERNOON.

..GUYER.. 02/15/2012


ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LZK...LCH...SHV...HGX...E WX...

LAT...LON 29349685 30069648 30459575 31299346 33899244 33529103
30639163 30349304 29759452 28759612 2934968

[dkmac]

N.O. NWS:

1147 AM CST WED FEB 15 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA...SOUTH MISSISSIPPI AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE
STRONG AND DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS. HOWEVER...AN ISOLATED
TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE MAIN TIME FRAME FOR STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS WILL OCCUR FROM MIDNIGHT AND THROUGH LATE MORNING.