...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF E AND SE TX
INTO FAR ERN OK...AR...MUCH OF LA AND FAR SWRN MS...
...ERN PORTIONS OF THE SRN PLAINS TO OZARKS/LOWER MS VALLEY...
CLOSED LOW CENTERED OVER NERN NM EARLY THIS EVENING WILL PROGRESS
EWD INTO THE TX PANHANDLE THIS FORECAST PERIOD. AS A
RESULT...DOWNSTREAM HEIGHT FALLS ARE EXPECTED OVER ERN PORTIONS OF
THE SRN PLAINS EWD INTO THE OZARKS/LOWER MS VALLEY. FORCING FOR
ASCENT ACROSS THESE AREAS WITHIN THE ENTRANCE REGION OF SLY UPPER
LEVEL JET AND THE EXIT REGION OF A MIDLEVEL JET MOVING INTO AR/LA
TONIGHT WILL MAINTAIN TSTM DEVELOPMENT.
THE STRONGEST INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS E TX INTO
CENTRAL/SRN LA...THOUGH MODERATE INSTABILITY EXTENDING NWD INTO AR
WILL BE SLOW TO WEAKEN. MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS TWO DISTINCT AREAS
OF TSTMS WILL EVOLVE THROUGH TONIGHT...1/ ATTENDANT TO THE ONGOING
LINE OF STRONG-SEVERE STORMS...WHICH EXTENDED FROM THE ARKLATEX TO
25 E AUS AT 0030Z...AS THIS ACTIVITY ADVANCES ESEWD...AND 2/ STORMS
OVER PARTS OF NERN OK/WRN AR SPREADING NEWD. REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY
ACROSS THESE AREAS APPEARS TO BE SHOWING THIS SCENARIO UNFOLDING AT
THIS TIME.
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR WILL REMAIN STRONG ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK AREA
WITH VECTORS CONTINUING TO BECOME PARALLEL TO THE ONGOING LINE OF
STORMS OVER E TX TO ARKLATEX MAINTAINING LINEAR MODE WITH BOWING
STRUCTURES POSSIBLE. THIS FACTOR WOULD SUPPORT A GREATER THREAT FOR
DAMAGING WINDS. HOWEVER...GIVEN STRENGTH OF THE BULK SHEAR /40-50
KT/...AND EFFECTIVE SRH OF 200-300 M2/S2 OVER E TX/SWRN AR INTO WRN
LA SUPPORTS A CONTINUED TORNADO THREAT WITH SUPERCELLS. A S/SWWD
MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS SRN MS AND PART OF NRN MS MAY TEND TO
LIMIT THE EWD EXTENT OF SEVERE WEATHER LATER TONIGHT AS THE E TX
STORMS ADVANCE ESEWD. HOWEVER...IN THE SHORT TERM...ONGOING STORMS
IN SRN AR/NRN LA TO SRN MS WILL HAVE A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.
FARTHER N...THE SLIGHT RISK WILL BE EXPANDED NWD TO INCLUDE NRN AR
AS THIS REGION REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH SOME STRENGTHENING
OF BULK SHEAR EXPECTED THIS EVENING FOR ORGANIZED STORMS.
...MID MS/LOWER OH VALLEYS...
THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MINIMAL FROM
THE MID MS TO LOWER OH VALLEYS THROUGH THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT.
THUS...THIS OUTLOOK IS LOWERING THE SEVERE PROBABILITIES TO 5
PERCENT FOR AN ISOLATED HAIL AND/OR LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUST
POTENTIAL.
22Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
NRN IND WITH A SUB-SYNOPTIC LOW LOCATED IN FAR NWRN OH. THESE
FEATURES WILL SHIFT ESEWD TONIGHT INTO THE UPPER OH VALLEY WITH WWD
TRAILING COLD FRONT ADVANCING TOWARD THE OH RIVER. FORCING FOR
ASCENT ATTENDANT TO A MIDLEVEL CIRCULATION...CURRENTLY TRACKING
THROUGH EAST CENTRAL MO PER SATELLITE IMAGERY...WILL SPREAD INTO THE
LOWER OH VALLEY AS THIS FEATURE MOVES INTO IND BY 12Z WED. ALTHOUGH
INSTABILITY WILL BE WEAKENING...THE FORCING ALOFT COMBINED WITH WEAK
LOW LEVEL WAA SHOULD SUPPORT ADDITIONAL CONVECTION THROUGH THE
NIGHT. WEAK INSTABILITY AND WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL LIMIT THE
OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...AND WARRANT LOWER SEVERE WEATHER
PROBABILITIES THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
..PETERS.. 04/04/2012
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 0430Z (11:30PM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME
April 3-4, 2012-SVR WX POTENTIAL
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Originally Posted by Joe-Nathan
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