New Orleans Local Weather thread

[dkmac]

56F temp and dewpoint this morning. Low 80's for a high today with sunny skies. No rain in the forecast through the weekend.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
436 AM CDT THU SEP 8 2011

.SHORT TERM...
17
NATE FORMED IN THE FAR SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE WED AND HAS
DECIDED TO MOVE VERY LITTLE. THESE TWO THINGS HAVE DICTATED ITS
FATE AND ITS EVENTUAL MOVEMENT TOWARD THE MEXICAN COASTLINE. THE
OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT STALLED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF IS MOVING
BACK AS AN INVERTED TROUGH. THIS WILL GIVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN
BY SUNDAY EVENING ALONG THE COAST. MONDAY WE MAY SEE A FEW SH/TS
DEVELOP INLAND BUT THEY WON`T BE WIDESPREAD. WE GET BACK INTO A
MOISTURE AND SOUTHERLY WIND REGIME ONCE AGAIN BY LATE NEXT WEEK.
THAT WILL BE A BETTER TIME TO SEE CHANCES OF RAINFALL.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT EACH OF THE TERMINALS THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. 22/TD

&&

.MARINE...
STATIONARY FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE
EASTERN INTO THE SOUTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO JUST TO THE NORTH OF
TROPICAL STORM NATE THROUGH FRIDAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDING SOUTH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WILL REMAIN IN PLACE BUT GRADUALLY WEAKEN ON FRIDAY. THIS
WILL RESULT IN NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND SEAS OF 1
TO 3 FEET THROUGH FRIDAY.

TROPICAL STORM NATE IS EXPECTED TO MEANDER IN THE SOUTHWEST GULF OF
MEXICO BEFORE MOVING NORTH THEN WEST ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST
CENTRAL GULF. SINCE THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN...SWELLS
SHOULD BRING HIGHER SEAS THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST IN THE OFFSHORE
WATERS...SO WILL RAISE THEM ACCORDINGLY. OTHERWISE...PREVAILING
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 15 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH THE 5 DAY
FORECAST PERIOD. 22/TD

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOWS MAY BE IN TIED OR BROKEN AT SEVERAL CLIMATE STATIONS
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...AND HERE IS A LIST OF THE OLD RECORDS.

STATION..THU 9/8     FRI 9/9     SAT 9/10
BTR      56 IN 1934  61 IN 1934  59 IN 1943
MSY      62 IN 1950  64 IN 1965  62 IN 1964
AUD      66 IN 1965  64 IN 1880  64 IN 1880
ASD      62 IN 1988  65 IN 1988  58 IN 1956
MCB      56 IN 1950  MISSING     55 IN 1956
GPT      63 IN 1965  62 IN 1981  63 IN 1956

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  81  53  84  54 /   0   0  10  10
BTR  82  56  85  58 /   0   0  10  10
ASD  82  59  84  61 /   0   0  10  10
MSY  81  63  84  65 /   0   0  10  10
GPT  82  61  84  63 /   0   0  10  10
PQL  82  60  84  61 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE. 

[dkmac]

55F temp and dewpoint this morning. Mid 80's for a high with no chance of rain today. Another cold front progged for the end of next week.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
344 AM CDT FRI SEP 9 2011

.SHORT TERM...

DEEP LAYER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF A BROAD UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL DOMINATE THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE...ALLOWING FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...LOW
HUMIDITIES...AND GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES. DAYTIME HIGHS
WILL RISE BACK TO MORE NORMAL READINGS BY TOMORROW AND REMAIN IN
THAT RANGE THROUGH SUNDAY. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE LOW DEWPOINTS IN
THE 50S...CLEAR SKIES...AND LIGHT WINDS IN PLACE EXPECT A LARGE
DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGE EACH DAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER
ROUND OF RECORD OR NEAR RECORD LOWS FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT
ACROSS THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...

HEADING INTO THE UPCOMING WORKWEEK...THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES WILL
EXPAND ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE
OHIO VALLEY PULLS TO THE NORTH AND EAST. THIS STRONG UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED SUBSIDENCE AND CAPPING ALOFT
WHICH WILL INHIBIT ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS MODERATING TO MORE NORMAL
READINGS BY MIDWEEK. THIS WILL MOSTLY BE DUE TO SOUTHERLY FLOW IN
THE LOW DEVELOPING ON THE BACK SIDE OF A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE OVER
THE NORTHEAST GULF.

ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT ANOTHER STRONG UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO DIG INTO THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE NATION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. AS THIS TROUGH AXIS DEEPENS...A
COLD FRONT WILL FORM OVER THE PLAINS AND RACE SOUTHWARD INTO THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ALTHOUGH OVERALL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
SOMEWHAT LIMITED ALOFT...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH FORCING TO SPARK
OFF SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. HAVE DECIDED TO
INCLUDE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THESE DAYS TO REFLECT THE RISK OF
CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. OTHERWISE...A DRY PERIOD
LOOKS TO BE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT EACH OF THE TERMINALS THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. 22/TD

&&

.MARINE...
STATIONARY FRONT...EXTENDING FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE
GULF OF MEXICO...IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT NORTH TOWARDS THE NORTH
CENTRAL GULF COASTAL WATERS OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT IN GENERAL HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE. TROPICAL STORM NATE IS EXPECTED TO MEANDER
IN THE SOUTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO TODAY...WITH A GENERAL NORTHWEST
THEN WEST DRIFT TOWARDS THE MEXICAN COAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
TOTAL SEAS/WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BE GENERALLY BE 2 FEET OR LESS THROUGH
SATURDAY...HOWEVER...SWELLS FROM WHAT IS EXPECTED TO BE HURRICANE
NATE ON SATURDAY WILL INCREASE TOTAL SEAS TO 3 TO 4 FEET OVER THE
OFFSHORE WATERS WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THESE SEAS MAY
FURTHER RISE TO 4 TO 5 FEET ON SUNDAY AND 5 TO 6 FEET OFFSHORE LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE GRADUALLY SUBSIDING
TUESDAY. 22/TD

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOWS HAVE OCCURRED ALREADY TODAY AT BATON ROUGE...SLIDELL AND
GULFPORT. FORECAST LOWS TONIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING SUGGEST ADDITIONAL
RECORDS WILL BE THREATENED. HERE ARE OLD RECORD LOWS TODAY AND
TOMORROW.

STATION..FRI 9/9     SAT 9/10
BTR      61 IN 1934  59 IN 1943
MSY      64 IN 1965  62 IN 1964
AUD      64 IN 1880  64 IN 1880
ASD      65 IN 1988  58 IN 1956
MCB      MISSING     55 IN 1956
GPT      62 IN 1981  63 IN 1956

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  84  53  87  58 /   0   0   0   0
BTR  86  55  89  60 /   0   0   0   0
ASD  84  53  88  59 /   0   0   0   0
MSY  83  64  86  66 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  85  60  87  63 /   0   0   0   0
PQL  84  53  87  61 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE. 

[dkmac]

58F temp and dewpoint this A.M. Upper 80's for the high today with no chance of rain. Warming trend heading into next week with the next chance of rain on Thursday.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
323 AM CDT SAT SEP 10 2011

.SHORT TERM...

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR THIS WEEKEND AS A DRY AND
STABLE AIRMASS CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE GULF SOUTH. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT ON THE BACK SIDE OF A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
BRING CLEAR SKIES AND LOWER HUMIDITIES TO THE AREA. GIVEN THE DRY
AIRMASS AND LIGHT WINDS...EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS TO PLUNGE INTO
NEAR RECORD LOW TERRITORY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...THE
DRIER AIR COMBINED WITH AMPLE SOLAR INSOLATION WILL ALSO LEAD TO A
LARGE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE CHANGE EACH DAY. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL
EASILY CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90. THESE READINGS ARE
NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

HEADING INTO MONDAY...A SECONDARY UPPER LEVEL VORT WILL SWING
THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE MAIN
UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AS THIS AREA OF
INCREASED VORTICITY SLIDES THROUGH...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER
THE NORTHERN GULF WILL BE DRAWN INTO THE COASTAL WATERS. THIS WEAK
BOUNDARY MAY SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER...AS THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH ON MONDAY...THE
RISK FOR OFFSHORE CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE
IS SHUNTED TOWARD FLORIDA. AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS
ALSO EXPECTED BY MONDAY...RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY MORE MUGGY
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING. HOWEVER...BY SEPTEMBER STANDARDS...THE
AIRMASS WILL STILL BE FAIRLY COMFORTABLE.  32

.LONG TERM...

AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS OUT OF THE REGION...ALL OF
THE MEDIUM RANGE GLOBAL MODELS AGREE THAT STRONG UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING OVER TEXAS AND THE SOUTHWEST WILL BEGIN TO EXTEND TO THE
EAST ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND CENTRAL GULF COAST.
AS THIS RIDGING INTENSIFIES...AND OVERALL SUBSIDENCE THROUGHOUT
THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN INCREASES...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK
INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S. ADDITIONALLY...SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE
LOW LEVELS WILL ALLOW FOR GULF MOISTURE TO ADVECT BACK INTO THE
REGION...PUSHING DEWPOINTS BACK INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.
THESE HIGHER DEWPOINTS WILL ALLOW OVERNIGHT LOWS TO RETURN TO MORE
NORMAL LEVELS BY TUESDAY MORNING AND REMAIN NEAR 70 DEGREES THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORKWEEK.

WITH RIDGING IN PLACE...THERE WILL BE LITTLE TO NO CHANCE OF
SEEING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AT LEAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THERE MAY
SOME WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE BY LATE IN THE WEEK...AS A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIVES INTO THE MIDWEST AND NORTHEASTERN STATES.
THIS SLIGHT BREAK DOWN IN THE RIDGE COULD ALLOW FOR ISOLATED
CONVECTION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
FOR NORTHERN ZONES ON THURSDAY AND ALL ZONES BY FRIDAY...EXCLUDING
THE COASTAL WATERS. ANY CONVECTION WILL TEND TO BE DIURNALLY
FORCED DUE TO A LACK OF ANY STRONG DYNAMIC FEATURE IN THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT EACH OF THE TERMINALS THROUGH 12Z
SUNDAY...WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF A PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS
DUE TO LIGHT FOG EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. 11

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
TROPICAL STORM NATE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
GULF OF MEXICO TOWARDS THE MEXICAN COAST OVER THE WEEKEND. WINDS
WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS THE NEXT 5 DAYS. SWELLS
FROM TROPICAL STORM NATE WILL INCREASE TOTAL SEAS TO 3 TO 4 FEET
OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH MONDAY...PRIMARILY WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THEREAFTER...SEAS WILL BE 2 FEET OR LESS. 11

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  87  58  88  62 /   0   0  10   0
BTR  89  60  90  65 /   0   0  10   0
ASD  88  59  89  63 /   0   0  10   0
MSY  85  67  87  69 /   0   0  10   0
GPT  85  63  86  66 /   0   0  10   0
PQL  85  60  86  64 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE. 

[dkmac]

61F temp and dewpoint this morning. Upper 80's for a high today with no chance of rain. Another cold front coming at the end of this week should bring us some rain in the area.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
627 AM CDT SUN SEP 11 2011

.AVIATION...

...12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z. ANOTHER
WEAK INVERSION SHOULD THEN BEGIN TO FORM AFTER 06Z...PROMPTING
MORE LIGHT FOG FORMATION AT AREA TERMINALS. EXPECT NO WORSE THAN
MVFR RESTRICTIONS DUE TO THE FOG. 32

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 AM CDT SUN SEP 11 2011/

DISCUSSION...
A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE LOWER OHIO AND MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEYS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL OPEN UP TODAY AND TRANSLATE
EASTWARD AS AN OPEN TROUGH EARLY IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE
TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND
CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION LATER TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT WITH LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF FANFARE. AFTER SEVERAL CONSECUTIVE DAYS OF VERY NICE FALL
LIKE WEATHER...THINGS WILL BEGIN TO HEAT UP AGAIN FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WORK WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EXPANDS EASTWARD AND
ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR
OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE OUT OF CANADA AND ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES...NORTHEAST...AND MID ATLANTIC REGIONS DURING THE LATTER
PART OF THE WEEK WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION LATE
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL LIKELY SLIP INTO THE
COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY BEFORE BECOMING STATIONARY. ALTHOUGH THE
MAIN DYNAMICS WILL PASS WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION...SOME
INCREASE AND DEEPENING OF MOISTURE ALONG WITH FORCING ALONG THE
FRONTAL ZONE SHOULD YIELD ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION
THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL
LOWER ONCE AGAIN IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NORTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. 11

AVIATION...
A WEAK INVERSION WILL BRING SOME LIGHT PATCHY FOG TO THE AREA.  THIS
MAY LEAD TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR RESTRICTIONS AT A FEW TERMINALS
THROUGH 14Z.  KMCB AND KHUM WILL BE MOST IMPACTED BY FOG.  THE
INVERSION WILL QUICKLY LIFT AFTER 14Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS
DOMINATING THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z.  ANOTHER WEAK INVERSION SHOULD THEN
BEGIN TO FORM AFTER 06Z...PROMPTING MORE LIGHT FOG FORMATION AT AREA
TERMINALS. 32

MARINE...
A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL
CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE MARINE ZONES THROUGH THURSDAY.  WITH THE HIGH
CENTERED OVER THE AREA...OVERALL WINDS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT AT
10 KNOTS OR LESS.  THESE LIGHT WINDS WILL KEEP SEAS FAIRLY
CALM...WITH SEAS OF 2 FEET OR LESS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA.  THERE
IS A CHANCE THAT A WEAK COASTAL JET WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUNDS TO
THE EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY...AND THURSDAY
NIGHTS.  THIS MAY LEAD TO SOME HIGHER WINDS OVER THE SOUNDS...IN THE
RANGE OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.  IF THESE
WINDS DEVELOP...SEAS MAY INCREASE TO 3 FEET FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF
TIME.  THE HIGH WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT TO THE WEST ON FRIDAY...AS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIDES INTO THE COASTAL WATERS.  WINDS WILL
INCREASE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST...AND
SEAS WILL ALSO BECOME MORE CHOPPY.  CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
BECOME ROUGHER FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS GRADIENT FLOW INCREASES
ACROSS THE REGION. 32

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  88  62  90  65 /  10   0   0   0
BTR  90  65  91  67 /  10   0   0   0
ASD  89  63  90  67 /  10   0   0   0
MSY  88  67  90  69 /  10   0   0   0
GPT  88  66  89  68 /  10   0   0   0
PQL  88  63  90  66 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE. 

[dkmac]

64F temp and dewpoint this morning. Low 90's for a high today with no chance of rain.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
333 AM CDT MON SEP 12 2011

.DISCUSSION...
AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS SHIFTS EAST
TODAY...MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL EXPAND EASTWARD ACROSS THE
GULF AND AND GULF COAST STATES AND PERSIST DURING THE WEEK. THIS WILL
RESULT IN TEMPERATURES WARMING TO NEAR NORMAL OR JUST SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN NORMAL VALUES FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. HUMIDITY LEVELS
WILL ALSO BE ON THE RISE AS A COMPONENT OF SOUTHERLY FLOW
BECOMES ESTABLISHED. AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING OUT OF CANADA AND
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...NORTHEAST...AND MID ATLANTIC REGIONS LATE
IN THE WEEK WILL SUPPRESS THE UPPER RIDGE SOMEWHAT AND WILL PUSH A
COLD FRONT INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
ALTHOUGH THE MAIN DYNAMICS WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE
REGION...CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY AND
INCREASING AND DEEPENING MOISTURE SHOULD YIELD ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. INCREASED CLOUD
COVER LATE IN THE WEEK WILL ALSO LOWER DAYTIME MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES TWO OR THREE DEGREES. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
LIKELY BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS OR NEAR THE
COAST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY BEFORE EVENTUALLY BECOMING DIFFUSE. THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT BACK TO THE WEST LATE IN
THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. 11

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH MOST OF THE
PERIOD. TOWARD DAYBREAK...A FEW HOURS OF MVFR VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE
DUE TO PATCHY FOG. THIS WILL ALSO BE THE CASE TUESDAY MORNING. 35

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL
CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE MARINE ZONES THROUGH THURSDAY. WITH THE
HIGH CENTERED OVER THE AREA...OVERALL WINDS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY
LIGHT AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS. THESE LIGHT WINDS WILL KEEP SEAS FAIRLY
CALM...WITH SEAS OF 2 FEET OR LESS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA. THERE
IS A CHANCE THAT A WEAK COASTAL JET WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUNDS TO
THE EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY...AND THURSDAY
NIGHTS. THIS MAY LEAD TO SOME HIGHER WINDS OVER THE SOUNDS...IN THE
RANGE OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. IF THESE
WINDS DEVELOP...SEAS MAY INCREASE TO 3 FEET FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF
TIME. THE HIGH WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT TO THE WEST OVER THE
WEEKEND...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIDES INTO THE COASTAL WATERS.
WINDS WILL INCREASE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT FROM THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST...AND SEAS WILL ALSO BECOME MORE CHOPPY. CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME ROUGHER FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS GRADIENT FLOW
INCREASES ACROSS THE REGION. 35

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  90  65  91  66 /   0   0   0   0
BTR  91  68  92  68 /   0   0   0   0
ASD  90  67  90  69 /   0   0   0   0
MSY  90  69  91  71 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  89  67  90  70 /   0   0   0   0
PQL  90  65  90  69 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE. 

[dkmac]

66F temp and dewpoint this morning. Low 90's for a high today with no chance of rain. Weak cold front coming thursday into friday.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
327 AM CDT TUE SEP 13 2011

.DISCUSSION...
RIDGING ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE GULF COAST REGION THROUGH MID
WEEK. AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING OUT OF CANADA AND ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES...NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC REGIONS DURING THE LATTER HALF
OF THE WEEK WILL SUPPRESS THE RIDGE SOMEWHAT AND PUSH A WEAK COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO STALL OUT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
ALTHOUGH THE MAIN DYNAMICS WILL STAY WELL NORTH OF THE AREA...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE VICINITY
OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO THE
WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING ANY SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE WEEKEND WILL BE ACROSS COASTAL
AREAS. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...TEMPERATURES MAY BE A FEW DEGREES
COOLER BUT THE MAIN EFFECT OF THE FRONT WILL BE TO BRING SOMEWHAT
DRIER AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA...PARTICULARLY ACROSS NORTHERN
AND EASTERN SECTIONS. AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES OFF THE EAST
COAST...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE GULF COAST REGION
AGAIN DURING MUCH OF THE WEEKEND BEFORE RETROGRADING LATE SUNDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS FORECAST A SIGNIFICANT
UPPER TROUGH TO EVOLVE OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS DURING
THE MID AND LATE WEEK PERIOD NEXT WEEK WITH THE GFS BEING A LITTLE
FASTER WITH THIS FEATURE. 11

&&

.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MOST
OF THE PERIOD. THE ONLY EXCEPTIONS MIGHT BE FOR A SHORT PERIOD
AROUND SUNRISE AS PATCHY FOG MAY PRODUCE MVFR CONDITIONS FOR AN HOUR
OR TWO. SIMILAR CONDITIONS CAN BE ANTICIPATED WEDNESDAY MORNING. 35

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REGION UNTIL FRIDAY. THE COASTAL JET
WILL BUMP OVERNIGHT WINDS EACH NIGHT TO AROUND 12 KNOTS IN THE USUAL
PLACES SUCH AS MISSISSIPPI SOUND...BUT WILL EASE TO BELOW 10 KNOTS
AFTER SUNRISE. THIS WILL KEEP SEAS AND WAVES 2 FEET OR LESS IN MOST
AREAS.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA FRIDAY. THIS WILL
BRING OFFSHORE FLOW...AND COULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO BRING EXERCISE
CAUTION CONDITIONS TO THE WATERS ON SUNDAY. 35

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  91  66  92  68 /   0   0  10  10
BTR  92  70  92  71 /   0   0  10  10
ASD  91  70  91  70 /   0   0  10  10
MSY  91  72  92  73 /   0   0  10  10
GPT  91  71  91  72 /   0   0  10  10
PQL  91  69  92  70 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE. 

[dkmac]

70F temp and dewpoint this A.M. Another day in the mid-90s and humid. Forecast for rain for Thursday has been lowered to 20%. Slightly cooler over the weekend.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
348 AM CDT WED SEP 14 2011

.DISCUSSION...
RIDGING ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE GULF COAST REGION INTO THE WEEKEND
ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE SUPPRESSED A BIT TO THE SOUTH THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...
NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC REGIONS. THIS LATTER FEATURE WILL PUSH
A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
BRINGING WITH IT A SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES LOWER
DURING THE DAY...BUT MORE COMFORTABLE OVERNIGHT LOWS AND LESS
HUMID AIR WILL BE EVIDENT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. MINIMAL RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS AND PRIMARILY THE ADJACENT LAND AREAS. THE UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE GULF COAST REGION WILL RETROGRADE EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
LATEST RUN OF THE GFS HAS CONTINUED ITS TREND OF A MUCH LESS
AMPLIFIED TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS NEXT
WEEK...WITH ESSENTIALLY A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CONUS THROUGH MID WEEK. MEANWHILE...THE ECMWF DOES FORECAST THE
EVOLUTION OF A SIGNIFICANT UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS NEXT
WEEK...BUT IT BASICALLY PARKS IT THERE THROUGH THE LAST HALF OF
THE WEEK. SO, THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS. HOWEVER...IN EITHER CASE A SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT
DOES NOT MOVE THROUGH THE AREA NEXT WEEK AS WAS ONCE ADVERTISED. 11

&&

.AVIATION...
A BIT OF A CHANGE FROM THE PAST COUPLE OF MORNINGS. MOISTURE IS
APPARENTLY TRAPPED UNDER A WEAK INVERSION...AND IFR CEILINGS HAVE
DEVELOPED OVER ABOUT THE NORTHWEST THIRD OF THE AREA...IMPACTING
KMCB AND KBTR TERMINALS. THERE ARE SOME BREAKS IN THIS CLOUD
DECK...SO WILL BE CARRYING VARIABLE CONDITIONS. ALSO SEEING THE
USUAL IN AND OUT IFR CONDITIONS AT KHUM. EXPECT THAT WE WILL AGAIN
HAVE A COUPLE OF HOURS OF MVFR VSBYS AT KGPT...KHSA...KASD. ALL
CLOUD AND VISIBILITY ISSUES SHOULD DISSIPATE AROUND 15Z. LIKELY TO
SEE RESTRICTED VISIBILITIES AGAIN THURSDAY MORNING...AND MAY HAVE
CEILINGS NEAR KMCB AT THAT TIME AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTH. 35

&&

.MARINE...
FORECAST SCENARIO FOR MARINE AREAS IS LITTLE CHANGED FROM YESTERDAY.
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH WILL MOVE INTO THE COASTAL
WATERS LATE THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING OFFSHORE WINDS BACK
TO THE COASTAL WATERS...BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW HEADLINE
CRITERIA THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS ON SATURDAY. AFTER THAT...STEADY
STATE EASTERLY FLOW SETS UP...WITH EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES LIKELY
OVER AT LEAST THE EASTERN WATERS FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT ONWARD. 35

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  92  69  85  61 /  10  20  20  10
BTR  93  71  88  64 /  10  10  20  20
ASD  92  70  88  66 /  10  10  20  20
MSY  92  72  89  70 /  10  10  20  20
GPT  91  72  89  65 /  10  10  20  20
PQL  92  70  88  64 /  10  10  20  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE. 

[dkmac]

73F temp and dewpoint this morning. The slight chance of rain for today has evaporated. Slightly cooler and lower humidity progged for this weekend.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
424 AM CDT THU SEP 15 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE
APPALACHIAN TO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI ACROSS NORTH LOUISIANA TO
CENTRAL TEXAS. IN ADDITION...A 1031MB HIGH WAS LOCATED OVER
MINNESOTA WITH RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SOUTH TO ARKANSAS. UPPER AIR
ANALYSIS SHOWED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE HUDSON
WITH AN ASSOCIATED TROUGH AXIS TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. IN
ADDITION...AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION WAS NOTED OVER SOUTH TEXAS
WITH THE RIDGE AXIS NORTH ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES. PRECIPITATION
WATER PLOTS SHOWED VALUES GREATER THAN 1.7 INCHES FROM NASHVILLE
TO JACKSON TO EAST TEXAS...JUST AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING AND THE REST OF AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. 1000 TO 700MB THICKNESS WILL LOWER
ABOUT 10 TO 20 METERS THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL BE
LOWERED FOR MCCOMB AND NORTHERN PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL LOUISIANA. THE
STRONGEST DYNAMICS WILL REMAIN NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. 5H
TEMPS WILL REMAIN AROUND -7C AND THIS WILL INHIBIT MOST CONVECTION
ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THIS MORNING THROUGH TONIGHT. THE
TROUGH AXIS WILL LIKELY PUSH THROUGH THE AREA SCOURING OUT THE MID
LAYER MOISTURE AND HIGHER PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FRIDAY MORNING
THROUGH SATURDAY. THEREFORE...WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...
THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO TRACK TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST SATURDAY. SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME EAST TO
NORTHEAST BY SUNDAY. AS A RESULT...MOISTURE WILL RETURN WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMBING 1.7 INCHES ACROSS THE SOUTH
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT DECREASES TO 1.4
INCHES AT TIMES MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SURFACE RIDGE AXIS FROM
THE NORTHEAST AND 7H HIGH OVER THE MID SOUTH WILL BRING IN A
DRY NORTHEAST FLOW AT TIMES. THUS RAIN CHANCES WILL NOT BE GREAT
AFTER SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER TROUGH AXIS IS EXPECTED TO
APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AND BETTER
RAIN CHANCES MAY HOLD OFF FOR THE THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...POSSIBLY
DAY 8 ON NEXT THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...

COLD FRONT HAS MOVED JUST SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20...WITH AN AREA OF
MVFR CEILINGS BEHIND IT. CURRENT FRONTAL TIMING HOLDS BOUNDARY TO
THE NORTH OF OUR AREA UNTIL AFTER 12Z. FORECAST PROBLEM IS HOW MUCH
OF THE CLOUD COVER MOVES INTO THE TERMINAL AREAS. NO REAL
REPRESENTATIVE 00Z UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS TO ASSESS THICKNESS OF MOIST
LAYER. LOOKING AT FORECAST SOUNDINGS...LAYER SHOULD ONLY BE 500-800
FEET DEEP. WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE OCCURRING DURING THE DAY...MOST OF
THE MOISTURE SHOULD MIX OUT...WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF
KMCB...WHERE WE WILL CARRY MVFR CEILINGS FOR SEVERAL HOURS. 35

&&

.MARINE...

FRONT SHOULD REACH THE GULF COAST BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY
EVENING. COLD ADVECTION BEHIND FRONT WILL ALLOW WINDS TO RAMP UP
SOMEWHAT...AND WINDS MAY GET INTO THE EXERCISE CAUTION RANGE OVER
OUR EASTERN WATERS...AND POSSIBLY THE TIDAL LAKES AFTER 06Z FRIDAY.
THESE WINDS SHOULD ONLY LAST FOR 3-6 HOURS AT BEST. WINDS WILL EASE
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY BEFORE RAMPING BACK UP TO NEAR EXERCISE
CAUTION LEVELS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE EASTERN WATERS. A MORE STEADY
STATE EASTERLY FLOW SETS UP...WITH EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES LIKELY
OVER AT LEAST THE EASTERN WATERS BEGINNING SUNDAY. SWELL MAY BRING
WAVE HEIGHTS UP TO 5-6 FEET IN SOME AREAS EARLY NEXT WEEK. 35

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  82  58  83  61 /  10  10  10  10
BTR  86  62  86  65 /  10  10  10  10
ASD  88  62  84  64 /  10  10  10  10
MSY  88  69  84  70 /   0  10  10  10
GPT  88  64  85  68 /  10  10  10  10
PQL  88  61  86  62 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE. 

[dkmac]

A very pleasant 58F temp and dewpoint this morning. No rain from the frontal passage. Low 80's for a high today with no chance of rain. Heat and muggies to return on Sunday, but another cold front progged for next Thursday.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
420 AM CDT FRI SEP 16 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED OUR FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM NORTH
FLORIDA TO NORTH CENTRAL GULF TO HOUSTON AND A LARGE DOME OF HIGH
PRESSURE FROM THE CENTRAL GULF COAST TO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...1029MB HIGH OVER MICHIGAN. LATEST SOUNDING REVEALED A NORTH
TO NORTHWEST FROM THE SURF TO 100MB. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED THE
HIGH OVER WEST GULF...CONFLUENT FLOW OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTH
CENTRAL CONUS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE SURFACE HIGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL
SLIDE EAST TODAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MARGINAL COLD AIR ADVECTION
WILL LAST THROUGH NOON THEN THICKNESS VALUES WILL SLOWLY INCREASE
THIS EVENING THROUGH WEEKEND. AS A RESULT...HIGH TEMPS WILL REMAIN
AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORM FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER COOL NIGHT DUE DRY
AIR IN PLACE. THE MAIN TROUGH WILL LIFT EAST AND THICKNESS LAYERS
WILL INCREASE EARLY SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THUS HIGH TEMPS WILL
RETURN TO NEAR NORMS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. SURFACE FLOW WILL BECOME
EASTERLY BY SATURDAY AND REMAIN EAST THROUGH MONDAY AND HIGHER
DEWPOINT WILL SLOWLY RETURN SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. 18

.LONG TERM...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER THE GULF WILL SLIDE
WEST OVER THE SOUTHWEST GULF AND ALLOW SEVERAL WEAK WAVES TO APPROACH THE
FORECAST AREA LATE SUNDAY AND TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AT THE
SAME TIME...A TROUGH WILL SLOWLY DEEPEN OVER THE GREAT LAKES
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOWERED THICKNESS OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
WILL EQUATE TO 5H TEMPS LOWERING FROM -7C TO -11C. AS A
RESULT...LATE SUMMER SURFACE HEATING WILL PROMOTE AN UNSTABLE ATM
ACROSS THE AREA NEXT WEEK WITH BEST FOCUS TO THE NORTH...WILL
HAVE RAIN CHANCES NEAR 30 PERCENT FOR NORTH ZONES TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...COVERAGE WILL REMAIN ISOLATED SUNDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL FINALLY PUSH SOUTH AS THE
MAIN TROUGH AXIS AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TRACK ACROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY. ERGO...INCREASE RAIN CHANCES UP TO 40
PERCENT FOR DAY 7/THURSDAY FOR NOW. 18

&&

.AVIATION...

MUCH OF THE LOW CLOUDINESS TO THE NORTH OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN HAS
DISSIPATED...WITH NEW CLOUDS DEVELOPING SOUTH OF THE LAKE. FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE MORNING HOURS...EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS TO AFFECT
KGPT...KNEW...KMSY AND KHUM. EXPECT CEILINGS TO SCATTER OUT BY
MID-MORNING...WITH VFR CONDITIONS THEREAFTER. 35

&&

.MARINE...

WIND SPEEDS HAVE DROPPED OFF OVER LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND WILL DROP
EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINE THERE. WIND SPEEDS ON OTHER LAKES AND
INNER WATERS SHOULD FALL BELOW HEADLINE CRITERIA BEFORE 12Z AND
EXPECT TO ALLOW EXERCISE CAUTION TO EXPIRE ON TIME. NORTHEAST FLOW
GRADUALLY BECOMES EASTERLY OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS...AND
REMAINS EASTERLY THROUGH THURSDAY. WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN
BELOW 15 KNOTS AND NOT EXPECTING ANY HEADLINES AT THIS TIME. 35

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  80  58  87  65 /  10   0  10  10
BTR  83  60  89  69 /  10   0  10  10
ASD  82  60  86  67 /  10   0  10  10
MSY  83  68  87  72 /  10   0  10  10
GPT  83  65  85  70 /  10   0  10  10
PQL  83  62  86  67 /  10   0  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE. 

[dkmac]

61F temp and dewpoint this morning. Upper 80's for a high today and higher humidity with the Easterly winds, but no chance of rain. 30% or higher chance of rain for Sunday and Monday.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
430 AM CDT SAT SEP 17 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED THE MAIN HIGH NORTHEAST CONUS AND
STALLED DISSOLVING BOUNDARY FROM NORTH FLORIDA TO THE NORTH CENTRAL
GULF TO SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN SURFACE TEMPS AND
DEWPOINT READINGS ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI AND EAST
CENTRAL LOUISIANA. HOWEVER...COASTAL MISSISSIPPI AND AREAS SOUTH
OF TIDAL LAKES SHOWED A SLIGHT WARMER AND A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
MOISTURE COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO AT 3 AM. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS
ZONAL FLOW WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER STATES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
SOME CHANGES IN THE FORECAST MAY MEAN RELATIVELY DRY FORECAST MAY
TURN TO A MORE WET FORECAST FOR DAY 2 THROUGH DAY 7. MEANWHILE...TODAY
THE MAIN HIGH OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS WILL SHIFT ALONG THE COAST
AND SURFACE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE EASTERLY BY THIS AFTERNOON. IN
ADDITION...THE OLD BOUNDARY WILL DISSOLVE TODAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER
PLOTS FOR FRIDAY EVENING SHOWED A DRY AREA FROM JACKSON TO NEW
ORLEANS WITH VALUES BETWEEN 1 AND 1.2 INCHES...SURROUNDED BY 1.4
TO 1.5 INCHES. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER WESTERN MONTANA TO THE
GREAT BASIN WILL TRACK EAST TO THE PLAINS AND YIELD SLIGHT WIND
FLOW CHANGE WITH MOISTURE INCREASING ACROSS SOUTHERN PLAINS...LOWER
AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE
UP TO 1.7 TO 1.9 INCHES ACCORDING TO NAM AND GFS MODELS BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY. NEAR AFTER NORM TEMPS WITH INCREASED
MOISTURE WILL YIELD AN UNSTABLE ATM SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ERGO...WILL
INCREASE RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY. 18

.LONG TERM...
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WILL SOME CHANGES IN THE FORECAST. THE FIRST
TROUGH WILL QUICKLY PASS EAST IN THE NORTH STREAM. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES WILL REMAIN GENERALLY AROUND 1.7 INCHES TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
THE SECOND TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL DEEPEN OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS REMAINING POSITIVELY TILTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS
WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN A MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS TEXAS TO THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES ACCORDING TO GFS. ECMWF IS A LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVE
WITH THE AXIS BECOMING NEUTRAL BY FRIDAY...PUSHING A FRONT THROUGH
THE AREA. MORE INCLINE TO GO WITH GFS FOR NOW AS THE SHORT RANGE
MODELS ARE LEANING TOWARD GFS INCREASED RAIN CHANCES THROUGH NEXT
WEEK. ERGO...A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE MAY OCCUR BUT BEYOND DAY 7/NEXT
FRIDAY. 18

&&

.AVIATION...
.AVIATION...
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PATCHY FOG THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. 95/DM

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS AND SEAS GENERALLY 3 FT OR LESS
WILL PERSIST OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
A BRIEF PERIOD OF SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS AND ROUGHER SEAS WILL BE
POSSIBLE TOWARD MID WEEK AS AN INVERTED TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE
GULF OF MEXICO. 95/DM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  87  65  88  67 /  10  10  30  30
BTR  89  69  89  68 /  10  10  30  30
ASD  86  67  87  67 /  10  10  30  30
MSY  87  72  88  73 /  10  10  20  20
GPT  85  70  86  69 /  10  10  20  20
PQL  86  70  87  67 /  10  10  20  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE. 

[dkmac]

67F temp and dewpoint this morning. 20% chance of rain today with the high in the mid 80's. 30 to 50% chance of rain forecast for Monday through Thursday of next week.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
425 AM CDT SUN SEP 18 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A 1034MB HIGH OVER EXTREME
NORTHEAST CONUS WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHWEST TO THE
NORTHEAST GULF. IN ADDITION...A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED OVER
WESTERN OKLAHOMA WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS REVEALED A TROUGH AXIS
FROM WESTERN MONTANA TO NORTH TEXAS. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED
CONVECTION OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND CLOUD DEBRIS AHEAD OF THE
ASSOCIATED TROUGH AXIS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST
OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY MONDAY. MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO
POOL ALONG THIS AXIS. IN ADDITION...STEEPER LAPSE RATES WILL
PROMOTE AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS. RAIN CHANCES
WILL LIKELY EXIST STARTING TODAY WITH MORE SHOWERS THAN
THUNDERSTORMS...MORE THUNDERSTORMS AND BETTER COVERAGE MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF THE TROUGH AXIS.
WITH THE MAIN PUSH UP NORTH...TROUGH AXIS DOWN SOUTH WILL STALL
AND MOISTURE WILL BECOME STRANDED OVER THE AREA MONDAY THROUGHTHURSDAY. THUS...RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 30 TO 50PERCENT MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. ANOTHER STRONGER TROUGH WILL
LIKELY TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY TUESDAY AND DEEPENED
FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO SOUTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
MEANWHILE...MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY. SOME DIFFERENCES EXIST BETWEEN ECMWF AND GFS WITH
THE TROUGH EVOLVING INTO THE CLOSED LOW OR REMAINING AN OPEN WAVE.
ALL IN ALL...BOTH SHOW THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH AXIS SWEEPING THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA POSITIVELY TILTED THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
AND DRY AND COOL WEEKEND WILL FOLLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PATCHY FOG THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...
BUT CHANCES AT ANY GIVEN SITE ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAFS AT
THIS TIME. 95/DM

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS AND SEAS GENERALLY 3 FT OR LESS
WILL PERSIST OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
A BRIEF PERIOD OF SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS AND ROUGHER SEAS WILL BE
POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK AS AN INVERTED TROUGH MOVES THROUGH
THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE NEXT COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE INTO THE COASTAL
WATERS BY FRIDAY...BRINGING A WIND SHIFT ALONG WITH DRIER AIR AND
LOWER RAIN CHANCES. THE DRIER AIR COULD LEAD TO GUSTY CONDITIONS FOR
NEXT WEEKEND. 95/DM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  87  68  86  66 /  20  40  50  40
BTR  89  69  88  67 /  20  30  50  30
ASD  87  68  85  69 /  20  30  50  30
MSY  87  74  87  71 /  20  20  50  30
GPT  86  70  85  72 /  20  30  50  30
PQL  87  68  84  70 /  20  20  50  30

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE. 

[dkmac]

Had a thunderstorm come through around 5 this morning and dropped a tenth of an inch or so of rain. 72F temp and dewpoint outside right now. 70% chance of rain today with a high in the mid 80's. Rain chances in the 30% to 60% range through Thursday and a cool front by the weekend.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
356 AM CDT MON SEP 19 2011

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY DRAPED JUST ACROSS THE MID
MS VALLEY AND JUST WEST OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY. A SQUALLLINE HAS
PUSHED OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT MOSTLY TO THE SSW MOVING ACROSS ERN TX
AND NWRN/WCNTRL LA. IN THE MID LVLS A DEVELOPING L/W TROUGH IS
LOCATED ACROSS THE ENTIRE MS VALLEY STRETCHING SOUTH FROM CNTRL
CANADA INTO THE WRN GULF. RIDGE IS LOCATED OVER THE DESERT SW WITH
AN UPPER LOW MOVING OFF THE NE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...BIGGEST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM IS WHAT HAPPENS WITH
THE CURRENT SQUALLINE/OUTFLOW BNDRY OFF TO OUR NW. CONVECTION HAS
BEEN DYING QUITE QUICKLY THE FURTHER EAST THE SQUALLINE HAS PUSHED
WHILE IT HAS HAD A GREATER PUSH SOUTH INTO SERN TX. THIS MAKES SINCE
AS IT IS FOLLOWING THE H85 THETA E AXIS WHICH IS LOCATED WEST OF
IAH. THAT SAID THERE IS RATHER DEEP MOISTURE OVER THE REGION AND
WITH A WEAK IMPULSE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION NOTED ON WV WE HAVE
SEEN WIDELY SCT CONVECTION BREAK OUT ACROSS BASICALLY THE WRN HALF
OF THE CWA WELL AHEAD OF THE OUTFLOW BNDRY ALREADY. THIS WILL LIKELY
BE THE CASE THROUGH THE NEXT 3-4 HRS.

TODAY THROUGH THU...THE L/W TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE REGION WITH
NUMEROUS IMPULSES MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT
84-96 HRS. TODAY THE OUTFLOW BNDRY FROM THE CURRENT DYING SQUALLINE
WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION LATER THIS MORNING. IT ALONG WITH ANOTHER
IMPULSE CURRENTLY BACK IN SCNTRL/CNTRL TX WILL PUSH ACROSS THE CWA
AROUND MIDDAY/EARLY AFTN AND SOME DAY TIME HEATING WILL BE MORE THAN
SUFFICIENT TO GET CONVECTION TO CONTINUE/REFIRE. PWS OF 1.75 TO 2
INCHES(ABOUT 140-150% OF NORMAL) SHOULD LEAD TO NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA
IF NOT WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY ACROSS NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. AGAIN SCT
CONVECTION WILL ALREADY BE ONGOING THIS MORNING AND LIKELY LAST
THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING ALTHOUGH I CANT RULE OUT A TEMPORARY
BREAK IN CONVECTION. LOOK FOR CONVECTION TO ONCE AGAIN DECREASE THIS
EVN AS WE LOSE BOTH DAY TIME HEATING AND AS THE IMPULSE PULLS AWAY.
THE L/W TROUGH WILL BE REINFORCED TOMORROW AS ANOTHER YET MUCH
STRONGER S/W DIGS SE OUT OF THE PAC NW INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY. IN
FACT AS THE SYSTEM REINFORCES THE L/W...TOMORROW MIGHT BE THE DAY
WITH THE LOWEST CHANCE OF RAIN OVER THE NEXT FOUR DAYS. AS FOR
STRONG/SVR...CANT RULE OUT A STRONG STORM OR TWO TODAY BUT WE ARE
JUST GOING TO LACK THE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND MID LVL FLOW TO
REALLY GET A POTENT UPDRAFT TO SUSTAIN ITSELF.

HEADING INTO WED THE L/W TORUGH WILL BEGIN TO DEEPEN BUT REMAIN OVER
THE REGION WITH BROAD SWRLY FLOW ONCE AGAIN LEADING TO MULTIPLE
IMPULSES PUSHING ACROSS THE REGION. TIMING THESE SPECIFIC IMPULSES
IS FUTILE AT THIS TIME BUT BY TUE NIGHT WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO SEE
THEM. DEEP MOISTURE WILL STILL BE IN PLACE WITH PWS OF GREATER THAN
1.5 INCHES WHICH IS ABOUT 120% OF NORMAL NOT AS HIGH AS WE CURRENTLY
ARE BUT GOOD ENOUGH TO GET SCT CONVECTION WITH EACH IMPULSE. THE
FACT THAT THE L/W TROUGH WILL STILL HAVE MADE VERY LITTLE
PROGRESSION EAST WILL LEAD TO THE COLD FRONT REMAINING WELL NORTH OF
THE REGION.

THU AND MAINLY THU NIGHT WILL BE THE TIME FRAME WITH THE BIGGEST
CHANGE. THE L/W TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN THROUGH THE DAY AND
OVERNIGHT THU IT SHOULD START TO PUSH EAST AS THE STRONGEST MID LVL
WINDS WILL FINALLY BE DOWNSTREAM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. AS THIS PUSHES
EAST LOOK FOR THE COLD FRONT TO GET A STRONG KICK SOUTH MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH A RATHER COLD AND DRY AIRMASS MOVING
IN BEHIND THE FRONT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT MOISTURE WILL STILL BE IN
PLACE AND WITH DECENT FORCING FROM ALOFT ALLWOING FOR ANOTHER DAY OF
SCT CONVECTION.

.LONG TERM...THE MEDIUM RANGE MDLS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE
EVOLUTION OF THE L/W TROUGH/MID LVL PATTERN THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF THE WEEKEND THEN SOME NOTICEABLE DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO SHOW UP.
THAT SAID OVERALL THE SENSIBLE WEATHER REALLY WONT BE MUCH DIFFERENT
EITHER WAY. WILL STICK CLOSE TO LATEST MEX GUIDANCE WITH BIGGEST
DEVIATIONS GOING TWRDS MORNING LOWS AS BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN
RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MUCH LOWER DEWPOINTS PUSHING INTO THE
REGION. OVERALL FCST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN A MUCH COOLER FCST FRI
AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH WELL INTO THE GULF FRI WITH COOLER AND
DRIER AIR PUSHING IN. THE L/W TROUGH WILL BE EAST OF THE REGION WITH
AN UPPER LOW EVENTUALLY DEVELOPING OVER THE SERN CONUS OR MID
ATLANTIC REGION. THIS WILL KEEP THE AREA UNDER NRLY/NWRLY FLOW
HELPING TO DRY THE AREA OUT. LL TEMPS WILL DROP SIGNIFICANTLY WITH
H925 TEMPS OF 16-18C EXPECTED OVER THE REGION THIS WEEKEND AND INTO
NEXT WEEK. LL TEMPS OF THIS MAGNITUDE WOULD SUGGEST HIGHS IN THE MID
UPPER 70S BUT GIVEN IT IS STILL GOING TO BE LATE SEP WITH QUITE A
BIT OF SUNLIGHT(NOT NECESSARILY SUNNY DAYS JUST LENGTH OF DAY IS
STILL LONG)...HIGHS WILL LIKELY REACH THE LOWER 80S. AS FOR
MORNING LOWS...SUN AND MON MORNING WILL LIKELY BE THE COOLEST AS
WINDS SHOULD DIE DOWN SUFFICIENTLY OVERNIGHT AND WITH DEWPOINTS
EXPECTED IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S...POSSIBLY IN THE UPPER 40S ACROSS
SWRN MS...MORNING LOWS COULD DROP INTO THE LOWER 50S ACROSS THE NRN
3RD SUN MORNING. /CAB/

&&

.AVIATION...
PATCHY FOG THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SH/TS WILL
VISIT EACH TERMINAL TODAY WITH MSY...BTR AND MCB BEING AFFECTED
FIRST DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. CEILINGS WILL BE A VARIETY OF
HEIGHTS WITH TS ACTIVITY CREATING CEILINGS IN THE 020 TO 040 RANGE.
AREAS OUTSIDE OF TS SHOULD SEE 060 TO 080. ANYTHING OUTSIDE THIS
WILL BE 110. SOME WORSENING FOG CONDITIONS MAY PRESENT TONIGHT AS
ALL AREAS WILL HAVE RECEIVED RAIN AND CEILINGS SHOULD RETREAT TO
AROUND 110 OR EVEN CLEAR IN SOME SPOTS. /TE/

&&

.MARINE...
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PERSIST OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH
THURSDAY. A BRIEF PERIOD OF 15 KNOT WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR A
SHORT TIME TODAY AS AN INVERTED TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. THE NEXT
COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS BY FRIDAY...BRINGING
A WIND SHIFT ALONG WITH DRIER AIR AND LOWER RAIN CHANCES. THE DRIER
AIR COULD LEAD TO GUSTY CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND. /TE/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  85  67  86  66 /  70  30  30  20
BTR  88  70  89  68 /  70  30  30  20
ASD  85  70  88  69 /  70  30  30  20
MSY  85  72  87  72 /  60  30  30  20
GPT  82  69  86  70 /  70  30  30  20
PQL  83  67  88  68 /  70  30  40  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE. 

[dkmac]

Pretty heavy fog outside this morning. 70F temp and dewpoint. Slight chance of rain late today or tonight with a high in the upper 80's. Good chance of rain on Wednesday. NWS backing off on the strong cold front for this weekend.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
404 AM CDT TUE SEP 20 2011

.SYNOPSIS...AT THE SFC A WEAK LOW WAS LOCATED NEAR MEM WITH A COLD
FRONT STRETCHING TO THE SW OVER NRN LA AND INTO SERN TX. THIS SFC
LOW WAS AT THE TAIL END OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING
THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST/OH VALLEY. BROAD HIGH PRESSURE WAS NOTED
OVER THE ERN SEABOARD AND OVER THE MID MS VALLEY. IN THE MID LVLS
THE S/W THAT HELPED DEVELOP LAST NIGHTS SHRA/TSRA WAS CONTINUING
TO PUSH EAST THROUGH MS AND INTO AL. ANOTHER MUCH STRONGER S/W
EMBEDDED IN THE L/W TROUGH WAS MOVING ACROSS MT/ND/SD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...INITIAL ISSUE WILL BE DENSE FOG CURRENTLY OVER A 3RD
OF THE CWA. DENSE FOG HAS BEEN MORE PATCHY THAN AREA/WIDESPREAD WITH
VISBIES KINDA BOUNCING UP AND DOWN. WITH THE AMOUNT OF RAIN RECEIVED
OVER SOME AREAS YESTERDAY...PROVIDING AMPLE GROUND
MOISTURE...COMBINING WITH CLEARING SKIES AND GENERALLY LGT WINDS
FOG HAS BEEN ABLE TO DEVELOP. MAIN AREAS OF CONCERN FOR DENSE FOG
HAS BEEN BASICALLY ALONG THE I-12 CORRIDOR NORTH INTO SRN MS. FOG
WILL LIKELY QUICKLY BURN OFF/MIX OUT AFTER SUNRISE. A DENSE FOG
ADV IS IN EFFECT TILL 13Z FOR THE AREA MENTIONED ABV.

AS MENTIONED YESTERDAY TODAY WILL LIKELY BE THE QUIETEST DAY FROM A
STANDPOINT OF CONVECTION. THIS IS THX TO THE S/W MOVING AWAY
PROVIDING AN AREA OF SUBSIDENCE. THAT SAID THE BROAD L/W TROUGH WILL
STILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE ERN HALF-2/3RDS OF THE CONUS. W/V DOES
SHOW SUBSTANTIALLY DRIER AIR TRYING TO MOVE IN FROM THE W/NW BUT AS
THE MID LVL FLOW COMES BACK AROUND TO ZONAL AND THEN SWRLY LOOK FOR
CIRRUS AND MOISTURE TO START TO PUSH BACK INTO THE REGION LATE TODAY
OR LIKELY MORE SO TONIGHT POSSIBLY LEADING TO ISLTD SHRA/TSRA LATE.

THE L/W TROUGH WILL SHARPEN AS THE S/W CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH
ND/SD CLOSES OFF OVER LAKE SUPERIOR BY WED MORNING. THIS WILL LEAD
TO THE TROUGH AXIS STRETCHING SOUTH FROM MN INTO THE WRN GULF/SERN
TX PUTTING THE CWA UNDER WEAK SWRLY FLOW. IT SHOULD LEAD TO WEAK
IMPULSES PUSHING ACROSS THE SERN HALF/3RD OF THE CWA WITH ISLTD TO
SCT SHRA AND TSRA POSSIBLE. HEADING INTO THU THE L/W WILL CONTINUE
TO SHARPEN OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE CONUS AND THIS SHOULD FINALLY
HELP TO DRIVE A COLD FRONT TWRDS THE REGION. MDLS HAVE STRUGGLED
SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE L/W TROUGH AND EVENTUAL
UPPER LOW AND PIECES OF ENERGY THAT ROTATE AROUND IT EMBEDDED IN THE
FLOW BUT THEY ARE STILL SUGGESTING A COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH THU
NIGHT/FRI MORNING. AHEAD AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT SHRA AND TSRA WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE ACROSS THE SERN HALF OF THE
CWA WHERE THE BEST MOISTURE WILL BE LOCATED. THE FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO THE CWA SOMETIME OVERNIGHT AND BY FRI SHOULD BE ENTERING IF NOT
ALREADY IN THE COASTAL WATERS. I AM CURRENTLY EXPECTING THE FRONT TO
BE FASTER THAN ADVERTISED BY THE MDLS AS THEY WERE SIGNIFICANTLY
SLOWER THAN WHAT OCCURRED LAST WEEK WITH THE COLD FRONT. WITH THAT I
WILL DRY THINGS OUT A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE GUI IS INDICATING FOR
FRI.

.LONG TERM...MDL CONTINUITY IS NOT TERRIBLE B/T THE GFS AND ECMWF
BUT CONSISTENCY HAS LEFT A LOT TO BE DESIRED. THE MDLS HAVE
SIGNIFICANTLY BACKED OFF ON THE STRENGTH OF THE COLD FRONT AND
AMOUNT OF DRY AIR PUSHING IN BEHIND THU NIGHTS COLD FRONT. WILL STICK
CLOSE TO THE LATEST MEX GUI VALUES BUT IT IS SAFE TO SAY THE
CONFIDENCE IS MUCH LOWER NOW GIVEN THE MDLS BOUNCING ALL OVER THE
PLACE. THAT SAID WE WILL STILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THIS WEEKEND AND
DRIER.

DEEP UPPER LOW WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE GRT LAKES/UPPER MID WEST
REGION THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP
THE REGION UNDER MORE ZONAL TO WEAK NW FLOW. DUE TO THAT WE WILL
LIKELY NOT SEE THE STRONG PUSH OF COLDER DRIER AIR PREVIOUSLY
ADVERTISED ALTHOUGH WE WILL STILL BE ON THE DRIER SIDE OF THINGS.
THE UPPER LOW WILL FINALLY GET KICKED OFF TO THE NE AS WE HEAD
FURTHER INTO THE WORK WEEK BUT THE MDLS ARE STILL INDICATING THAT
THE L/W TROUGH COULD REMAIN OVER THE ERN 3RD OF THE CONUS WITH THE
TROUGH AXIS STRETCHING ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS AND BACK TO THE SW
INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY POSSIBLY LEADING TO A WEAK CUT OFF LOW OVER
THE NERN GULF OR EVEN SOME TYPE OF BLOCKING PATTERN OVER THE CNTRL
CONUS. OVERALL THE FCST DOES LOOK MUCH QUIETER FOR OUR REGION THIS
WEEKEND AND WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. /CAB/

&&

.AVIATION...
FOG TO AFFECT ALL TERMINALS TO SOME DEGREE THIS MORNING. SHOULD LIFT
BY 14Z FOR ALL SITES. NOT AS MUCH TS ACTIVITY AROUND TODAY. BUT WILL
KEEP FOG IN THE TAFS FOR TONIGHT AS WELL SINCE THERE IS NO REAL
CHANGES TO ENVIRONMENT. CEILINGS WILL BE IN AND OUT SOUTH OF THE
LAKE THIS MORNING WHEREAS OTHERS SHOULD SEE IT LOCKED IN OVER THEIR
TERMINALS UNTIL MID MORNING. /TE/

&&

.MARINE...
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PERSIST OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH
THURSDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS BY
FRIDAY...BRINGING NORTH WINDS ALONG WITH SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR.
SOUTHERLY WINDS BRING BACK THE MOISTURE BY SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. A
REINFORCING SURGE BEHIND ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN TUESDAY
BRINGING MUCH DRIER AIR WITH IT AND STRONGER WIND SPEEDS. /TE/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  85  64  87  65 /  10  10  30  20
BTR  88  67  89  67 /  10  10  20  20
ASD  86  68  89  70 /  10  10  30  30
MSY  86  70  88  72 /  10  10  30  30
GPT  85  70  87  71 /  20  10  40  40
PQL  87  68  89  70 /  30  10  50  40

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     ASCENSION...EAST BATON ROUGE...EAST
     FELICIANA...LIVINGSTON...NORTHERN TANGIPAHOA...SOUTHERN
     TANGIPAHOA...ST. HELENA...ST. TAMMANY...AND WASHINGTON.

GM...NONE.
MS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     AMITE...HANCOCK...PEARL RIVER...PIKE...AND WALTHALL.

GM...NONE.
&& 

[dkmac]

67F temp and dewpoint outside this A.M. A slight chance of rain with a high in the upper 80's today. 50% chance of rain on Thursday. Cold front will not be as strong as the NWS previously predicted.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
534 AM CDT WED SEP 21 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SOUTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NORTH GULF
COAST REGION AND SOUTHEAST STATES WITH NUMEROUS DISTURBANCES
MOVING THROUGH. A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS LOCATED NEAR THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE REMAINED RATHER
ISOLATED ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT/EARLY
MORNING HOURS.

.SHORT TERM...
ONE UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY AND TONIGHT...THEN A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
THROUGH ON THURSDAY AS THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS PUSHES
SOUTHEAST INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ISOLATED AND MAINLY LIMITED TO COASTAL
SECTIONS TODAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
OVER THE SOUTHERN/EASTERN COASTAL WATERS. PRECIPITATION SHOULD
INCREASE A BIT TONIGHT AN SPREAD JUST A BIT FARTHER INLAND.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS ON
THURSDAY WITH THE MOST NUMEROUS ACTIVITY EXPECTED SOUTH AND EAST
OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND EAST OF I-59 IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
MODERATE...SO SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT LIKELY...HOWEVER...A FEW
STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING ARE
POSSIBLE. VERY DEEP MOISTURE PROFILES ARE EXPECTED WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER RISING OVER 2 INCHES NEAR THE COAST BY LATE
THURSDAY. LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WITH RAINFALL
RATES OF 2 TO 3 INCHES PER HOUR POSSIBLE. FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE
IS PRETTY HIGH...BUT THIS PATTERN DEFINITELY COULD SUPPORT AT
LEAST SOME LOCALIZED URBAN/STREET FLOODING ON THURSDAY.

THE MAIN WEATHER PRODUCING DISTURBANCE WILL GRADUALLY PUSH EAST
WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALSO SLIDING SOUTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY WITH DRIER AIR GRADUALLY STARING TO MOVE INTO THE INLAND
AREAS. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE DECREASING.

.LONG TERM...
AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER LOW/TROUGH WILL SET UP OVER THE GREAT
LAKES/OHIO VALLEY OVER THE WEEKEND WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH
TO THE GULF COAST. THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE ON THE DRY SIDE OF
THE UPPER TROUGH WITH DRIER...LESS HUMID AIR EXPECTED TO LEAD TO
COOLER TEMPERATURES AT NIGHT WITH SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES
DURING THE DAY. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS. HAVE LOWERED THE LOWS A BIT FROM THE MEX/OPERATIONAL GFS
WHICH BLENDS WELL WITH THE COOLER ENSEMBLE MOS GUIDANCE.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE GFS IS SLOWER MOVING THE MAIN UPPER LOW EAST
COMPARED TO THE ECMWF. THE GFS BACKS UP THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER
LAND AND SHOWS PRECIPITATION BREAKING OUT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW. THE
ECMWF KEEP THINGS DRY. SINCE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST INCLUDED SOME
MENTION OF RAIN...HAVE NOT BACKED OFF MUCH YET...BUT AM HAVING
SOME DOUBTS THAT THE GFS SOLUTION IS CORRECT. HAVE MAINLY SLIGHT
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT...BUT HAVE LOWERED THE POP ON TUESDAY SINCE ANOTHER SURGE OF
DRIER AIR SHOULD BE PUSHING SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN GULF. 22/TD

&&

.AVIATION...
FOG TO AFFECT MOST TERMINALS TO SOME DEGREE THIS MORNING. SHOULD
LIFT BY 14Z FOR ALL SITES. WILL BRING FOG BACK IN TAFS FOR TONIGHT
BUT TO A SLIGHTLY LESSER DEGREE. LOW IFR CEILINGS WILL BE IN AND OUT
FOR ALL TERMINALS EAST OF A LINE FROM ASD TO HUM THROUGH MID
MORNING. SAME CEILINGS WILL BE BACK FOR A SHORT DURATION THURSDAY
MORNING. 17

&&

.MARINE...
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PERSIST OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH
THURSDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS BY
FRIDAY...BRINGING NORTH WINDS ALONG WITH SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR.
SOUTHERLY WINDS BRING BACK THE MOISTURE BY SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. A
REINFORCING SURGE BEHIND ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN TUESDAY
BRINGING MUCH DRIER AIR WITH IT AND STRONGER WIND SPEEDS. 17

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  88  65  87  66 /  10  20  40  20
BTR  90  69  89  69 /  10  10  40  20
ASD  88  70  88  69 /  20  30  60  30
MSY  87  73  88  73 /  20  30  50  30
GPT  88  72  87  70 /  30  30  60  30
PQL  89  69  88  69 /  30  40  60  40

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE. 

[dkmac]

70F temp and dewpoint this morning. Lightning flashing off to the East, so it looks like we'll get the 50% chance of rain sometime today, with a high in the mid 80's. Cool front moving into the area tomorrow, but the biggest effect will be lowering dewpoint and humidity values.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
348 AM CDT THU SEP 22 2011

.SHORT TERM...
TWO BOUNDARIES TO SPEAK OF WITH RESPONSIBILITY FOR OUR WEATHER.
THE FIRST IS OVER TEH GULF VERY CLOSE TO US. THIS IS A WEAK
INVERTED TROUGH. THE NEXT IS A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH
THE PLAINS JUST ENTERING TEXAS AND STRETCHING BACK INTO TENNESSEE.
THIS FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BY FRIDAY. BOTH OF THESE
BOUNDARIES WILL REACT WITH EACH OTHER PRODUCING ENOUGH SUBSIDENT
AREA BETWEEN THEM TO RENDER A MESOHIGH. THE SUBSIDENCE WILL BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO PUT A CAP OVER ALMOST ALL SH/TS ACTIVITY FOR
FRIDAY. SHOULD STILL SEE A SHOWER OR TWO POP UP. NORTHERLY WINDS
WILL NOT LAST LONG AS THE UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES GETS CUT
OFF AND SINKS SOUTHWARD AS ANOTHER FRONT MOVES AS FAR SOUTH AS
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI BY MONDAY. THIS IS WHERE CONFIDENCE TAKES A NOSE
DIVE. A SFC LOW WILL DEVELOP ON THE STALLED FRONT BACK IN TEXAS.
THE LOW SHOULD MOVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY TO THE NE UNLESS SFC
FRONTOGENESIS OCCURS OVER TEXAS. IF THE RESULT IS A SYSTEM CUT OFF
FROM THE MAIN FLOW OVER TEXAS...THEN WE SET UP FOR A WET PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE DECEIVING OF WHATS TO COME TODAY.
ONGOING CONVECTION OVER COASTAL WATERS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN
COVERAGE INLAND THROUGHOUT THE DAY. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ENOUGH AT
SITES NEARER TO THE COAST TO HAVE TEMPO GROUPS FOR TSRA. OTHERS
FARTHER INLAND WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR AMENDMENTS. A FEW
STORMS TODAY WILL PRODUCE HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY WINDS. WINDS
WILL GENERALLY BE EASTERLY AT LESS THAN 10 KTS. CLOUDS WILL BE NEAR
VFR/MVFR BOUNDARY AT 3KFT. DIURNAL INLAND STORMS TO DWINDLE NEAR
SUNSET.

&&

.MARINE...
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PERSIST OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH
THURSDAY. LOOKING AT CURRENT OBS...WINDS WILL BE CLOSE TO THE
EXERCISE CAUTION CRITERIA. DUE TO MARGINAL CONDITIONS...WILL HOLD
OFF ON HEADLINE FOR NOT. THE NEXT COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE INTO THE
COASTAL WATERS BY FRIDAY...BRINGING NORTH WINDS ALONG WITH SOMEWHAT
DRIER AIR. SOUTHERLY WINDS BRING BACK THE MOISTURE BY SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY. A REINFORCING SURGE BEHIND ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN
TUESDAY BRINGING MUCH DRIER AIR WITH IT AND STRONGER WIND SPEEDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  87  66  85  58 /  40  20  20  10
BTR  89  69  87  62 /  40  20  20  10
ASD  88  69  87  63 /  60  30  20  10
MSY  88  73  87  70 /  50  30  30  10
GPT  87  70  87  65 /  60  40  30  10
PQL  88  69  87  65 /  60  50  30  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE. 

[dkmac]

70F temp and dewpoint this A.M. Looks like the "cold" front is only going to bring us some cooler overnight temps and lower humidity for tonight and Saturday. Slight chance of rain today with a high in the mid 80's.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
407 AM CDT FRI SEP 23 2011

.SHORT TERM...
FRONT ON ITS WAY THIS MORNING. LOWER DEW POINTS WILL BE TEMPORARY
AND SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE ALREADY SEEN BEHIND THE FRONT OVER
TX AND KANSAS. THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES IN WED AND WILL DO SO AS
A BACK DOOR FRONT MOVING VERY SLOWLY. THIS WILL ALSO BE THE NEXT
REAL CHANCE OF RAIN THAT WE SEE. MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG AROUND
THIS MORNING AS WELL AS SAT AND SUN MORNING. WITH NO DRY LAYERS
ALOFT...THE CHANCE OF SEEING SEVERE WEATHER WILL DIMINISH TODAY
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE OUTER MARINE AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION...
MAIN FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS STALLED FROM ABOUT JAN TO BTR TO NEAR LCH.
MOST LOW CLOUDS ARE TO THE NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY...BUT BEGINNING TO
SEE COVERAGE AGGRANDIZING WITH MORE TERMINALS WHERE PRECIPITATION
OCCURRED FAIRLY CLOSE TO SUNSET NOW BEING IMPACTED BY LOW CLOUDS.
MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
ELSEWHERE...BUT WILL PLAY CHANCES FOR THOSE DOWN. BOTH NAM AND GFS
SOLUTIONS HAVE CONVECTION VERY LIMITED ON FRIDAY...GENERALLY BELOW
30 PERCENT. WILL NOT CARRY ANY MENTION OF THUNDER IN TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
COLD FRONT IS SLOWING TO NEARLY STATIONARY OVER INLAND AREAS.
EXPECTING THE BOUNDARY TO FINALLY PUSH THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL BECOME MORE CONSISTENTLY
NE...WILL NOT HAVE MUCH PUNCH WITH THIS FRONT SO NOT EXPECTING WIND
SPEEDS TO BE MUCH MORE THAN 10 TO 15 KTS. SEAS WILL STAY UP AROUND 3
FEET AND FALL THROUGH THE LATTER PART OF THE DAY. WEAK PRESSURE
PATTERN WILL LEND TO LIGHT WINDS OVER COASTAL WATERS OVER THE
WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE EASTERN GULF EARLY NEXT
WEEK WHICH WILL SHIFT WINDS BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST WHILE INCREASING.
POSSIBLE WEAK BOUNDARY MID WEEK WILL WEAKEN WINDS AGAIN. F

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  85  63  84  60 /  20  10  10  10
BTR  88  66  87  63 /  20  10  10  10
ASD  87  66  87  65 /  30  10  10  10
MSY  87  71  85  68 /  30  10  10  10
GPT  86  68  87  64 /  30  10  10  10
PQL  87  66  87  64 /  30  10  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE. 

[dkmac]

67F temp and 66F dewpoint this morning. Mid-80's today with plenty of sunshine.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
415 AM CDT SAT SEP 24 2011

.SHORT TERM...
COLD FRONT WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA WITH MILD CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. CYCLONE OVER CHICAGOLAND AREA
SENDING A SECONDARY FRONT WITH ATTENDANT MOISTURE INTO THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THAT SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...
WEAKENING FRONTAL ZONE SETTLES ACROSS THE GULF STATES TO SERVE AS
A WEAK FOCUS FOR CONVECTION...POSSIBLY INTERACTING WITH GULF
BREEZE BOUNDARIES. MODELS SHOW A VERY FLAT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER
THE AREA MID TO LATTER PART OF THE WEEK WITH SOME IMPULSES
DROPPING INTO BASE OF 700 MB TROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING TO PERHAPS
SET OFF AN MCS TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THAT MAY PUSH AN
OUTFLOW FEATURE INTO NORTHERN EXTENT OF FORECAST AREA LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WILL ONLY SHOW SLIGHT CHANCE AT
THIS TIME AS MOISTURE MAY BE LIMITED AND BAROTROPIC AIR MASS
TO INHIBIT TROUGHING THIS FAR SOUTH.  24/RR

&&

.AVIATION...
INTERMITTENT CLOUDS DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING BUT
MOST ABOVE 4KFT. PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP NEAR SUNRISE BUT FOR THE
MOST PART VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS EXPECTED NEAR TERMINALS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.   MEFFER

&&

.MARINE...

COLD FRONT IS WELL THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS. ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL
BECOME MORE CONSISTENTLY NEWD...WILL NOT HAVE MUCH PUNCH WITH THIS
FRONT SO NOT EXPECTING WIND SPEEDS TO BE MUCH MORE THAN 10 TO 15 KTS
FOR A SHORT PERIOD TODAY AND FALL THRU THE AFTN. WEAK PRESSURE
PATTERN WILL LEND TO LIGHT WINDS OVER COASTAL WATERS OVER THE
WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE EASTERN GULF EARLY NEXT
WEEK WHICH WILL SHIFT WINDS BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST WHILE INCREASING.
POSSIBLE WEAK BOUNDARY MID WEEK WILL WEAKEN WINDS AGAIN. SEAS
GENERALLY 2 FEET OR LESS THRU THE FCST PERIOD.  MEFFER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  85  62  87  66 /   0  10  10  10
BTR  87  65  88  69 /   0  10  10  10
ASD  87  66  88  69 /  10  10  10  10
MSY  86  70  87  72 /  10  10  10  10
GPT  87  68  86  72 /  10  10  10  10
PQL  87  65  87  68 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE. 

[dkmac]

63F temp and dewpoint this morning. Upper 80's today with no chance of rain. Slight chance of rain by mid-week.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
355 AM CDT SUN SEP 25 2011

.SHORT TERM...
FAIRLY BENIGN WEATHER EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. RESIDUAL
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WAS STALL OVER THE COASTAL PARISHES OF LA AND
THE FOCUS OF A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS IS NOW NON-EXISTENT
FOR THE MOST PART. SURFACE RIDGE IS DEVELOPING IN THE EASTERN GULF
OF MEXICO AND RETURN FLOW FROM THE GULF WILL BEGIN. KEPT NO MENTION
OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR TODAY AND SHOULD HAVE PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES IN GENERAL TODAY. THERE IS A VERY MINUTE POSSIBILITY FOR A
SINGLE SHOWER OR 2 TO FORM BUT THE PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW FOR
MENTION IN ZONES. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY BUT IN AND AROUND CLIMO NORMS. DIDN/T STRAY MUCH FROM MAV
GUIDANCE AS ITS BEEN PERFORMING GREAT LATELY.

.LONG TERM...
IN GENERAL...OVERALL CHANGES MADE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST WERE
MINOR. WATERVAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS WELL DEVELOPED CLOSED UPPER LOW
SPINNING SW OF THE GREAT LAKES. A SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK
AROUND THE LOW. AS THIS FEATURE TRANSLATES ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE
LOW...AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE CWA. WITH THE LOW
CUTOFF AND NOT MOVING SOUTHWARD MUCH...THE BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY NOT
MAKE MUCH PROGRESS PAST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI THROUGH MONDAY. SHOWER
AND STORM ACTIVITY NEAR THIS FRONT MAY BEGIN IMPACTING NORTHERN
ZONES MONDAY. MID TO LATE WEEK CANADIAN TROUGH WILL EVENTUALLY
ABSORB THE UPPER LOW. GFS IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE ECMWF.
MEANWHILE...BOUNDARY THAT STALLS NORTH OF THE AREA WILL DRIFT
SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD EACH DAY. THE RESULT WILL BE 20 TO 30 PCT
COVERAGE MOST DAYS THIS WEEK BUT SHIFTING FROM NORTHERN ZONE FOCUS
TO COASTAL ZONES BY FRIDAY. DEEPER EAST COAST TROUGH LATE THIS WEEK
TO WEEKEND SHOULD PUSH THE BOUNDARY INTO THE GULF BY WEEKEND. NORMAL
TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WILL LIKELY FALL AT THAT POINT AS
COOLER/DRIER AIR MOVES IN.

MEFFER
&&

.AVIATION...
SOME TRANSIENT LOW CLOUDS AROUND 2400 FT NOTED ALONG DECAYING
FRONTAL ZONE ALONG THE MS COAST. THIS MAY IMPART BRIEF PERIODS OF
MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH 15Z WHICH SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR CONDITIONS
AFTER 15Z. INCREASING MARITIME MOISTURE OVER AREA TONIGHT WILL
LIKELY PRODUCE SOME FOG FORMATION TO BRING VSBY IN MVFR RANGES
MAINLY AFTER 09Z TONIGHT.  24/RR

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS CURRENTLY IN PLACE WILL INCREASE STEADILY
TO MODERATE LEVELS LATER TODAY AS ONSHORE FLOW BECOMES BETTER
ESTABLISHED IN RESPONSE TO LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ALONG THE RED
RIVER VALLEY INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WEAK RE-ENFORCEMENT
FRONT APPEARS TO WASH OUT ON ARRIVAL TO THE NORTH GULF LATER TONIGHT
AND SHOULD HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON WINDS AND SEAS. GRADIENT RELAXES BY
MONDAY NIGHT TO ALLOW WINDS AND SEAS TO SETTLE TO LOWER LEVELS FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.  24/RR

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  88  68  89  67 /  10  10  20  20
BTR  90  72  91  72 /  10  10  10  10
ASD  89  71  88  69 /  10  10  10  10
MSY  88  74  89  73 /  10  10  10  10
GPT  85  73  87  73 /  10  10  10  10
PQL  86  69  87  69 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE. 

[dkmac]

70F temp and dewpoint this morning. A very slight chance of rain today with a high near 90F. Cold front coming this weekend?

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
334 AM CDT MON SEP 26 2011

.SHORT TERM...
17
CURRENT COLD FRONT SEEN NEAR COLLEGE STATION TX TO TUPELO MISS AT
3AM. THE FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHWARD BEFORE STALLING OVER THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF MISS. THIS WILL ALLOW SMALL DISTURBANCES TO
MOVE ALONG THE 850MB FRONTAL AXIS KEEPING SOME SHOWERS AND A FEW
TS DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. A MUCH STRONGER COLD
FRONT WILL BE MOVING IN REINFORCING THE OLD FRONT CAUSING IT TO
MOVE WELL INTO THE GULF MOVING ALL THE MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS
OUT OF THE AREA WITH IT. THE WEEKEND IS SHAPING UP TO BE QUITE
NICE.

&&

.AVIATION...
OVERALL...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS MORNING.  WIND STAYING UP
NEAR 4 KNOTS OR HIGHER WILL INHIBIT FOG DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...MVFR
CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP FOR A TIME DUE TO CIGS AND/OR VSBYS AT
KBTR...KMCB...KHUM...KHSA AND KASD BEFORE SUNRISE. ANY SHRA/TSRA
WILL BE ISOLATED ACROSS SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI DURING THE DAY...SO
WILL NOT CARRY ANY MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. LARGE ANVIL
SHIELD IS BEGINNING TO NUDGE INTO SOUTHEAST LA...AFFECTING MCB.
EXPECT THIS TO THIN WITH TIME AS THE THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH
WEAKEN.

MEFFER
&&

.MARINE...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS SETTLING INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO...THUS LEADING TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS. THIS WILL BE THE GENERAL PATTERN THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
A COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE AND
GRADUALLY SAG SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE COASTAL WATERS THIS WEEK. THE
RESULT WILL BE LIGHTENING OF WINDS. SO...EXPECT SEAS OF 2 FEET OR
LESS...MAINLY NO MORE THAN A FOOT THROUGH THURSDAY. AFTER THAT...
STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL SEND THIS COLD FRONT MARCHING SOUTHWARD WELL
INTO THE GULF. MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL BEGIN
FRIDAY AFTN AND LIKELY PERSIST THRU THE WEEKEND. EXERCISE CAUTION
LOOKS TO LIKELY WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF ADVISORY CONDITIONS AT LEAST
IN THE OUTER WATERS.

MEFFER
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  89  69  90  68 /  30  10  20  20
BTR  91  73  91  72 /  10  10  20  20
ASD  88  74  89  71 /  10  10  20  20
MSY  90  75  90  74 /  10  10  10  10
GPT  89  74  88  73 /  10  10  20  20
PQL  89  74  88  70 /  10  10  20  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE. 

[dkmac]

74F temp and dewpoint this morning. Very slight chance of rain today with a high near 90F. Wednesday looking wet, and then a cold front arriving Friday.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
336 AM CDT TUE SEP 27 2011

.SHORT TERM...
17
VERY GENTLE SLOPE ON THE FRONT. THE SFC BOUNDARY IS LOCATED NEAR
MCB AND THE 850MB FRONT IS OVER SOUTHERN ARKANSAS WHERE ALL THE TS
ACTIVITY IS FIRING THIS MORNING. THIS PORTION OF THE BOUNDARY WILL
ALSO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH TODAY. MAY SEE SOME OF THE TS ACTIVITY
DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT OVER SOUTHERN MISS.
SHOULD SEE THE BEST ACTIVITY DURING THE DAY WED. DONT SEE A LOT OF
COOLING ALOFT AS THIS AREA MOVES SOUTH WED MORNING. WOULD HAVE TO
GET UP AROUND 65 VIL NUMBERS TO SEE LARGE ENOUGH HAIL FOR SEVERE.
TS WOULD NOT BE SFC BASED EITHER AS BASES SHOULD BE FROM 25K TO
30K FEET. CAN`T FIND ANY REASON TO ALERT FOR SEVERITY AT THIS TIME
OUTSIDE OF HAIL...BUT WILL STAY UP WITH THE NUMBERS AS WE
APPROACH. AS SOME SLIGHTLY DRY AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION THU
MORNING WE WILL SEE THIS ACTIVITY MOVE INTO THE GULF.

THE COOLER MUCH DRIER AIR LOOKS TO PENETRATE THE REGION BY FRIDAY
EVENING. THIS SHOULD HELP DROP TEMPS RELATIVELY FAST AS IT MOVES
THROUGH. TEMPS TO BE COOL FOR FRI NIGHT THROUGH WED OF NEXT
WEEK...NOT BECAUSE OF JUST THE COOL AIR INTRUSION. THE CAA COMES
FIRST THEN THE CLOUD COVER COMES TRAPPING THE COOL AIR FOR A FEW
DAYS TOWARD WED. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BEGIN BY WED AND THAT WILL
BRING THE WARMER MORE HUMID WEATHER BACK INTO THE AREA FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
AREAS OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE BEEN PASSING THROUGH THE REGION
LATELY BUT ALL ARE ABOVE 3KFT. INTERMITTENT MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP AT MCB AND HUM FROM BR BUT ONLY UNTIL SUNRISE.
OTHERWISE...VFR WILL PREVAIL WITH GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS.

MEFFER
&&

.MARINE...
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRANSITION EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
TODAY TO THE WESTERN BY THURSDAY. AT THIS POINT...WINDS WILL BECOME
NORTHERLY AS A BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE COASTAL WATERS. EXPECT SEAS
OF 2 FEET OR LESS...MAINLY NO MORE THAN A FOOT THROUGH THURSDAY. AS
THE COLD AIR BEGINS ADVECTING IN. AT THAT POINT... STRONG UPPER
TROUGH WILL SEND THIS COLD FRONT MARCHING SOUTHWARD WELL INTO THE
GULF. MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL BEGIN FRIDAY AFTN
AND LIKELY PERSIST THRU THE WEEKEND. EXERCISE CAUTION LOOKS TO
LIKELY WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF ADVISORY CONDITIONS AT LEAST IN THE
OUTER WATERS.

MEFFER
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  89  70  88  67 /  20  20  30  20
BTR  92  72  90  71 /  10  20  30  20
ASD  90  71  89  70 /  10  20  30  20
MSY  91  74  88  74 /  10  10  30  20
GPT  88  74  88  73 /  20  20  30  20
PQL  89  70  88  70 /  20  20  30  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.