New Orleans Local Weather thread

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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans La
400 Am Cdt Tue Aug 29 2006

.discussion...scattered Convection Will Remain On Tap For The
Forecast Area For The Next Two Days Before Dry Weather Moves Into
The Region For The End Of The Week And Into The Weekend. The
Mid/upper Level Low/trough Over The Mid And Upper Mississippi
Valley Will Move East Into The Eastern Conus During The Week While The
Upper Ridge Currently Over The Southeast U.s. Shifts East And
Ernesto Moves North Across The Florida Peninsula And Up The East
Coast. As The Mid/upper Low/trough Moves East...it Will Push A
Cold Front South Across The Forecast Area Latter Tonight And
During The Day Wednesday. In Advance Of This Front...precipitable
Water Values Will Remain High...around Two Inches Or Greater...
Which Will Help Fuel Convection With The Approaching Cold Front
And Possibly A Weak Short Wave Moving Around The Periphery Of The
Southeast Upper Ridge Acting As A Focus For Thunderstorm Development.
A Considerably Drier And More Comfortable Airmass Will Filter Into
The Region Late Wednesday And Thursday In The Wake Of The Front.
The Next Chance For Rain Will Come Sunday Into Early Next Week As
Another Cold Front Approaches As Another Upper Trough/low Digs
Into The Mid/upper Mississippi Valley.

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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans La
349 Am Cdt Wed Aug 30 2006

.discussion...convection Has Been On The Increase Across The
Southern Half Of The Forecast Area Early This Morning In Advance
Of A Cold Front Moving Southeast Across Central And Southwest
Mississippi And South Central And Southwest Louisiana. This Cold
Front Will Continue Southeast Across The Forecast Area Today But
May Temporarily Slow Down As It Approaches The Coast In Response
To Tropical Storm Ernesto Moving North Over The Florida Peninsula.
The Front Should However Continue South Through The Coastal Waters
Tonight As The Upper Low/trough Moving Into The Ohio Valley
Amplifies. Considerably Drier Air Will Filter Into The Region In
The Wake Of The Front Tonight And Into Thursday Resulting In Dry And
More Comfortable Conditions Through The Weekend. The Next Chance
For Rain Will Come Early Next Week As Another Upper Level
Trough/low Digs Across The Upper And Mid Mississippi Valley And
Moves Into The Great Lakes And Ohio Valley Region With An
Associated Cold Front Pushing South Into The Area.


&&

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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans La
252 Am Cdt Thu Aug 31 2006

.discussion...weak Cold Front...courtesy Of Ernesto...continues To
Move Through The Northeast Gulf This Morning As Drier And Slightly
Cooler Air Filters Into The Region. Ernesto Is Forecasted To
Continue Moving Up The Atlantic Seaboard As High Pressure Briefly
Builds Southward Across The Plains States. With Light Northwest
Flow Prevailing Aloft...little Change In The Overall Weather
Pattern Across The Area Is Expected Through The Weekend Offering
Us A Quick Peak Into The Upcoming Fall Season. The Next Front Is
Forecasted By The Models To Move Into The Region Mon As An Upper
Trough Swings Through The Plains States. The 00z Run Of The Gfs Is
Suggesting Quite A Bit Of Qpf Developing Along The Boundary As It
Potentially Slows North Of The Gulf Coast. Hard To Tell This Far
Out If This Is A Convective Feedback Issue Or Developing Waves
Along The Boundary...both Of Which Would Generate Ample Amounts Of
Precip For This Time Of Year. For Now...will Increase Pops To The
Low Chance Cat For Tue And Wed And Leave Slight Chance Pops In For
Mon. Further Model Runs May Indeed Suggest Increasing Rain Chances
More For The New Work Week. In The Short Term...enjoy The Nice
Fall Like Weather As The Weekend Approaches.

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Afdlix

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans La
430 Am Cdt Mon Sep 4 2006

.discussion...
A Mid/upper Low Over Iowa...with A Trough Extending Southwest...
Will Move Slowly East And Southeast Across The Ms Valley Today
And Tonight...and The Lower Oh Valley And Tn Valley Tuesday And
Tuesday Night. The Associated Cold Front Has Already Surged South
To Near The Ms And Southeast La Coasts The Last Few Hours.

Pva And The Frontal Boundary Could Cause A Few Showers To Form
Over The Southeast Half Of The Forecast Area Today...but Will Not
Mention In The Forecast Because Coverage Should Be 10 Percent Or
Less. The Lower Surface Dewpoint Temps And Only Slight Erosion Of
The Mid Level Cap Will Work Against Deep Convection.

On Tuesday...falling Mid/upper Heights And Shortwave Energy Should
Cause Some Overrunning Of Moisture Over The Frontal Boundary. Will
Carry 20 To 30 Percent Pops For Showers And Thunderstorms.

Drier Air Will Return Again On Wednesday Into Thursday. Tuesday
Night Should Be The Coolest With Widespread 60s Forecast Except
Near The Southeast La Coastal Bays And Southshore Of Lake
Pontchartrain Where Warm Water Will Keep Temperatures Up In The
Lower 70s. A Few Locations Far North Could See Lows Near 60.

The Surface High Will Shift East Friday Through The Weekend. Weak
Upper Level Disturbances And Increased Moisture Should Support A
Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.

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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans La
428 Am Cdt Tue Sep 5 2006

.discussion...
Main Forecast Problem Will Be Rain Chances Over The Next Several
Days As Gradients Of Moisture And Lift Set Up Over The Forecast
Area.

A Mid/upper Trough...extending From The Western Great Lakes Into
The Arklatex...will Become Disjointed As The Northern Portion Of
The Trough Progresses East While The Southern Portion Hangs Back
West Of The Lower Ms River Through Thursday. Additional Lift From
Periods Of Upper Divergence Will Also Contribute To Synoptic Scale
Lift Across The Forecast Area. The Main Change Affecting The
Forecast Is There Should Be Some Rain Chance Over At Least The
Southeast Portion Of The Area Wednesday Into Thursday.

At The Surface...the Cold Front Has Moved Near The Coast...about
Where It Was At This Time Yesterday Morning. The Difference Today
Is The Boundary Should Remain Stationary And Not Move Back North.
The Front Should Move Farther South On Wednesday...then Become
Repositioned Just Inland Across The Central Gulf Coast Again
Thursday And Friday.

As Far As Weather...will Continue With A Slight Chance Of Showers
And A Few Thunderstorms Today...then Will Only Keep A Slight
Chance Over The Southeast Portions Tonight Through Thursday.
Instability Is Very Marginal...so The Threat Of Strong Or Severe
Thunderstorms Is Very Low The Next Several Days. The 850 Mb Front/
Trough Will Extend North Of The Surface Front...so Isentropic
Up-glide Will Also Contribute To Uvv.

In The Extended Time Frame...the Gfs Is Now Drier Over The Weekend
With A Wetter Pattern Holding Off Until Monday And Tuesday. Have
Only Made Minor Changes For Now During This Period.

&&

.preliminary Point Temps/pops...
Mcb 86 63 87 63 / 20 10 10 10
Btr 88 64 88 66 / 20 10 10 10
Msy 88 72 88 71 / 20 20 20 10
Gpt 88 65 88 66 / 30 20 20 10

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lix Area forecast discussion National Weather Service New Orleans la 221 am CDT Wednesday Sep 6 2006 Discussion... no big changes made ot ongoing pack. Frontal systems has moved into the Gulf and dry air conintues to move into the boundary layer. A little more moisture will creep back into the boundary layer today bringing better moisture profiles back to just above 700mb by noon. This should be enough to keep a 20% chance of rain in the forecast. A surge of very dry air moves in to cap anything above the 675mb level by noon today as well. With little in the way of strong heating...dynamic lift should be the main culprit today to help develop any shower activity. Looking at the middle and upper levels...would like to see a SW component to the middle level winds which would allow it to pick up any available moisture from the western Gulf. This flow is mainly northerly. Would also like to see a SW component to the upper flow but it is due westerly from southern cali through la. These two wind regimes are not conducive for overrunning as they provide no moisture to speak of.

[ROLLTIDE]

Afdlix

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans La
323 Am Cdt Thu Sep 7 2006

.discussion...
Good Amount Of Sh/ts Developing Over The North Central Gulf This
Morning. The Area Should Become A Little Better Organized As A
Strong Short Wave Moves Into The Area And A Sfc Low Begins To
Develop Along The Front. No Problems From Any Obs Yet As Only Gusts
Found Are Around 20kt Near The Mouth Of The Miss River. Will Have
To Continue To Watch The Area For Smw`s As Dynamics And
Thermodynamics Favor Isolated Strong Ts Development.

There Is Also A Strong Moisture Gradient From Nw To Se. This
Will Help Keep Most If Not All Sh/ts Activity Along The Coast To
Well Offshore. Another Short Wave Will Dive Into The Area Later
Today. This Feature Can Be See In Wv Imagery From Shreveport Into
East Central Texas This Morning. This Feature Is Also Responsible
For The Developing Cloudiness From Monroe Through East Central Tx.
Enough Dry Subsident Air Aloft Should Keep The Area Capped Until
It Reaches The Coast Today.

Problem Will Be Mainly For Mariners Today But Isolated Land
Development May Also Find A Problem. That Would Be Movement Vs.
Propagation Vectors. These Vectors...as One Can Already Tell...are
Equal And Opposite Each Other Which Simply Means Sh/ts That
Develop Stay Pretty Much Over The Same Location With Heavy
Rainfall. Values Are Not Expected To Be Over An Inch For Any One
Location.

Looking At The Numbers...the Eta Ros Seems To Have A Good Handle
On This System. It Did A Fantastic Job Yesterday With Pop Numbers
And Is Showing Some Skill For Today And Possibly Tomorrow. Will
Stay A Little Closer To Ros Numbers For The First Three Periods
Before Giving In To The Gfs. The Ros Is Also Showing 40% At Msy
During The Day Friday But Will Not Use This Until Better Confidence
Is Aquired From Next Short Wave Moving Down The Nw Flow On The
Back Side Of The Upper Trough. Attm Just Looks Too Dry.

&&

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rea forecast discussion National Weather Service New Orleans la 337 am CDT Sat Sep 9 2006 Discussion... lots to talk about with many drastic changes to package this morning. Quite a bit of difference in the way models handling mass fields. Will start this morning with the big picture. Huge upper trough digging today over the Hudson Bay area as an upper low and surface low get organized over Colorado. The surface low will move east then NE basically splitting the large upper Hudson Bay trough. As the surface low develops and moves out frontogenisis will occur. Eventually this cold front will enter and move through the area. But this process will play out very slowly as another surface low tries to develop along the front as it nears the northern Gulf. This will cause the front to be held up temporarily on Monday. As the low moves east-northeast Tuesday the wind shift finally makes its way through. As the front is located over the northern Gulf...small disturbances will continue to move over the area causing sh/ts to continue through Wednesday. Probability of precipitation today will be a difficult task. Will take current moisture fields into consideration for future pop gradient. Slightly drier conditions to the NE of the area will be stubborn to move away and so will modify slowly while the majority of the area will modify quickly today. Precipitable waters are a lot higher along and south of the old boundary located over the northern Gulf this morning while a disturbance moving out of southeast Texas is having to use lower precipitable water thresholds. So long story short...heaviest rainfall should be found along and south of the old frontal boundary. This front... which we will call a warm front but is more of a surface-middle level moisture boundary...will feel the synoptic tug of return flow caused by the surface low getting developed in Colorado and will move slowly northward over the next several days. Sounding profiles are not showing a strong chance of severe with any ts developing north of the Gulf frontal boundary. But this changes as one reaches and moves south of it. So no strong or severe ts will be expected north of where the warm front is located until it moves over and north of a location. Heavy rainfall estimates move upward as well along and south of the boundary. Best position of this boundary is found with precipitable water values. It seems to be located from around Houston to about 30 miles due south of New Orleans moving north at 10 knots. &&

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000
Fxus64 Klix 110827
Afdlix

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans La
327 Am Cdt Mon Sep 11 2006

.discussion...
Ts Developing Near And Offshore Again This Morning With A
Resultant Movement Vector Toward The Shoreline At About 10kt. This
Will Be The First Wave Of Sh/ts And As Usual The Second Crop Will
Develop With Daytime Heating Starting By Late Morning. No Severity
Is Expected With Any Of The Activity That Develops Today.

A Wind Shift To The West Then Nw Will Begin To Enter The Area
Late Tue And Should Push Through Shortly After Midnight. The
Strong Surge Of Dry Air Will Lag The Wind Shift By Several Hours
Finally Moving Into The Area Starting Around Daybreak Wed
Morning. Basically We Should Be Waking Wed Morning To Relatively
High Dew Pt Readings But These Readings Will Drop Throughout The
Day Making Things Feel Very Comfortable By Late Afternoon And
Evening. This Scenario Will Also Maximize Radiational Cooling
Starting Wed Night Causing Temps To Drop Into The Lower 60s With
Even A Few Upper 50s Readings Not Out Of The Question. The
Exception Will Be Areas South Of Lake Pontchartrain Unless Wind
Speeds Go Calm After Wed Night.

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000
Fxus64 Klix 120831
Afdlix

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans La
331 Am Cdt Tue Sep 12 2006

.discussion...
Area Radars Are Currently Indicating A Broken Line Of Showers And
Thunderstorms Stretching Across Northern And Central Mississippi
And Louisiana. This Activity Is Being Triggered By A Pre-frontal
Trough That Is Pushing Southeastward Across The Deep South. The
Actual Frontal Boundary Extends From Illinois And Indiana
Southwestward Across Arkansas And Texas. This Front Should Move
Across The Forecast Area Today And Tonight.

The 00z Klix Sounding Shows Plenty Of Moisture In Place, With A
Precipitable Water Value Of 2.16 Inches. Given The Deep Moisture
And Triggering By The Pre-frontal Trough And The Actual Frontal
Boundary, 70 Percent Pops Are Forecast Areawide Today. The Front
Will Pass Into The Coastal Waters Early Wednesday Morning, Giving
Way To Clearing Skies, Seasonal Temperatures, And Lower Relative
Humidities. Subsidence And Dry Air Advection Should Begin In
Earnest Wednesday Afternoon As High Pressure Begins To Build In
Behind The Front. The Ridge Will Persist Through Saturday. Rain
Chances In This Time Frame Will Be Nil, And Temperatures Will Be
Quite Seasonable. Afternoon Readings Will Be In The Mid And Upper
80s While Overnight Lows Will Dip Into The Lower 60s North To
Around 70 Degrees South.

The High Pressure Begins To Shift Eastward On Sunday, Giving Way
To Return Flow. Rain Chances Creep Back Into The Forecast On
Monday, As The Next Weather System Approaches. A Low Pressure
System Will Exit The Rockies And Deepen Over The Central Plains.
It Will Push Another Cold Front Our Way In The Late Monday Night
Or Early Tuesday Time Frame. Thus, Rain Chances Were Increased To
Scattered Coverage For The Early Part Of Next Week.

&&

.preliminary Point Temps/pops...

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Area Forecast Discussion

000FXUS64 KLIX 131351 AAAAFDLIXAREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATEDNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA851 AM CDT WED SEP 13 2006.UPDATE...A QUICK ADJUSTMENT TO THE AFTERNOON POPS AND WEATHER GRIDS WASMADE...TO REFLECT THE SLOWER MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT...AND THE AREAOF CONVECTION CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS. HAVEDECIDED TO LEAVE IN A MENTION OF ISOLATED POPS THROUGH THISAFTERNOON BEFORE DRYING THINGS OUT OVERNIGHT. NO OTHER CHANGESWERE MADE TO THE GRIDS...AS EVERYTHING LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK. NOZONE UPDATE WILL BE NECESSARY...AND THE MORNING UPDATE PACKAGE OFTHE COASTALS WILL PICK UP ON THE MARINE GRID CHANGES.&&.PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 417 AM CDT WED SEP 13 2006)DISCUSSION...LOW PRESSURE CAN BE SEEN DIGGING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THISMORNING WHILE ITS ATTENDANT COLD FRONT TRIES TO PUSH THROUGH THESOUTHEAST. THE FRONT, CURRENTLY STRETCHED ACROSS NORTHERNMISSISSIPPI AND LOUISIANA AND EASTERN TEXAS, MADE LITTLE PROGRESSDURING THE DAY YESTERDAY. IT SHOULD GET MOVING WITH GUSTO TODAY,PUSHING THROUGH OUR AREA AND INTO THE COASTAL WATERS BY AFTERNOON.LATE YESTERDAY EVENING, THERE WERE SEVERAL SHOWERS ANDTHUNDERSTORMS RIDING ALONG THE ACTUAL FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HOWEVER,MUCH OF THAT ACTIVITY DIED AS THIS MORNING HAS PROGRESSED. RADARCURRENTLY SHOWS ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVERCENTRAL MISSISSIPPI. BELIEVE THAT WE WILL NOT SEE MUCHPRECIPITATION ACTIVITY TODAY AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. THEONGOING ACTIVITY WILL PASS WELL TO OUR NORTH, AND THE KLIX RADARVAD WIND PROFILE ALREADY INDICATES NORTHERLY FLOW UP TO 12,000FEET. HAVE FORECAST ISOLATED POPS EARLY TODAY, TAPERING OFF TONIGHT.ONCE THE FRONT PASSES, COLD AND DRY AIR ADVECTION WILLBEGIN. LOOKING UPSTREAM, DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE 50S. THIS ADVECTIONWILL SERVE TO LOWER OUR TEMPERATURES, BUT NOT TOO DRASTICLY GIVENTHE SHALLOW NATURE OF THE COLD AIR. LIGHT WINDS FOR THE NEXT FEWNIGHTS WILL SERVE TO PROMOTE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING, AND WE CANEXPECT TEMPERATURES TO DIP INTO THE LOWER 60S NORTH AND INTO THELOWER 70S SOUTH. THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL BE PLEASANT, WITHCLEAR SKIES AND TEMPERATURES IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S. WHAT A NICELEAD IN TO FALL!RETURN FLOW RETURNS SATURDAY WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOISTUREOVER THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SHIFT EASTWARD. AN UPPER LOWWILL EXIT THE ROCKIES AND DEEPEN ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS,PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. THUS,RAIN CHANCES ARE BROUGHT BACK INTO THE FORECAST ON MONDAY. HIGHPRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY.&&.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...LA...NONE.GM...NONE.MS...NONE.GM...NO NE.&&

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000
Fxus64 Klix 140810
Afdlix

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans La
310 Am Cdt Thu Sep 14 2006

.discussion...
Cold Front Will Not Move Too Far Away From Shore Before Making Its
Way Back Inland Over The Weekend. Dry Air Will Move Very Slowly
Southward Over The Next 24 Hours. Then The Stationary Boundary
Will Begin To Feel The Tug From The Next Cold Front Developing In
The Foothills. This Will Only Allow Us To Get A Day Or So To Enjoy
Lower Dp Air Before The Muggy Conditions Come Rushing Back In.
Next Front Moves In Early Tue Morning. Moisture Will Be Deep And
Plentiful Enough To Give Rise To Plenty Of Convection Along And
Ahead Of The Tue Cold Front. Pop Numbers May Be Too Low During The
Sun-tue Morning Time Frame But Until Confidence Is Increased Will
Opt To Keep Numbers In Chance Cat.

Past Tue...no Other Changes Were Made To Current Pack.

&&

.preliminary Point Temps/pops...
Mcb 86 61 89 66 / 0 0 0 10
Btr 88 64 90 68 / 0 0 10 20
Msy 86 70 89 73 / 10 10 10 20
Gpt 87 65 90 66 / 10 0 0 10

&&

.lix Watches/warnings/advisories...
La...none.
Gm...none.
Ms...none.
Gm...none.

[ROLLTIDE]

Fxus64 Klix 142018
Afdlix

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans La
318 Pm Cdt Thu Sep 14 2006

.discussion...

A Stationary Front Remains Stalled Over The Coastal Waters
Today...and Will Linger Over The Region Through Saturday. This Is
Mainly Due To A Lack Of Overall Forcing Behind The Front...as
Evidenced By A Fairly Stable Heights In The Region Today. Given
That The Front Will Be In The Vicinity...have Kept A Low Chance Of
Pops In For The Coastal Zones Through Tomorrow. Over The Remainder
Of The Cwa...strong Subsidence And A Deep Layer Of Dry Air In The
Middle And Upper Levels Of The Atmosphere Will Continue To Limit
Cloud Development And Lead To Dry Conditions Through Tomorrow.
Temperatures Will Near Normal As Overall 1000-500mb Thicknesses
Remain In The Lower 570 Range

Going Into The Weekend...the Stationary Front Over The Coastal
Waters Will Begin To Feel The Influence Of A Developing Trough In
The Northern Rockies And Plains. As A Result...some Moisture
Advection Will Begin To Set Up Across The Western Gulf...as
Southerly Flow On The Backside Of The Ridge Over The Southeast
Takes Shape. A Decent Theta E Ridge Will Set Up Across East Texas
And Western Louisiana On Saturday...but It Appears That The
Moisture Will Be Slower To Return To Much Of Southeast Louisiana
And Southern Mississippi...as A More Easterly Flow Remains In
Place On Saturday. However...the Flow Will Begin To Shift To The
South On Sunday...allowing For Some Isolated Pops To Be Mentioned
In The Cwa Due To Some Weak Isentropic Lift Developing. This
Moisture Advection Will Strengthen Sunday Night...as A 25 Knot Low
Level Jet Develops Across The Region...in Advance Of The Deepening
Trough In The Plains And Midwest. By Monday...a Deep Tropical
Airmass Will Once Again Be In Place Across The Cwa. At The Same
Time...strong Mid-upper Level Lift Associated With The Upper Level
Torugh Will Allow For Chance Pops. The Front Associated With This
Trough Will Slowly Push Through The Region From Monday Night
Through Wednesday Morning...as The Best Forcing Associated With
The Positively Tilted Trough Becomes Focused On The Mid-atlantic And
Northeast. Frontal Movement Will Be Totally Dependent On Density
Differences Between The Cooler And Drier Airmass Behind The Front
Pushing Into The Warm And Moist Airmass Over The Region.
Overall...ample Lift Will Be In Place To Support Chance Pops
Monday Night Through Tuesday Night. Going Into Wednesday...the
Front Will Slow Clear The Cwa...before Stalling Over The Coastal
Waters Wednesday Night. Taper Off Cloud Cover And Pops From North
To South On Wednesday. High Pressure Will Build Back In On
Thursday...with Strong Subsidence Allowing For Clear Skies And Dry
Conditions.

&&

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Fxus64 Klix 150912
Afdlix

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans La
412 Am Cdt Fri Sep 15 2006

.discussion...
Stationary Front Over The Northern Gulf Will Begin To Head Back To
The North As A Warm Front Today Bringing Moisture Back To The
Western Portion Of The Area First. Dry Air Will Be Stubborn To
Move Out Of The Miss Gulf Coast Until Sunday. A Pop Gradient Will
Therefore Exist There Literally Splitting At The Pearl River.
Dynamic Influences Will Cause Areas Of Sh/ts Along The Incoming
Cold Front To Split North And South. This Will Cause High Pressure
To Bridge The Southern Part Of The Front. This Scenario Is
Reflected Best In Qpf Values As The Front Moves Through. Looks
Like This Time The Wind Shift...sh/ts...and Trough Axis Will Be
Located With The Cold Frontal Axis. Will Simply Word The Front
Moving Through Tuesday Since Attm Not Real Sure Where Forcing Will
Become Negated And Momentum Will Take Over.

&&

[ROLLTIDE]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans La
308 Am Cdt Sun Sep 17 2006

.discussion...weather Pattern Continues To Evolve This Morning
With Nocturnal Showers Again Developing Over Portions Of Lower
Southeast Louisiana. This Activity Is Representative Of Increasing
Moisture Profiles Across The Northern Gulf Region Aided By High
Pressure Moving Into The Atlantic Basin Allowing Southerly Flow To
Become Established Across The Region. In Addition...a Potent Upper
Trough Continues To Deepen Across The Northern Plains With
Abundant Energy Out Of Northern Mexico Traversing Northward Along
The Eastern Half Of The Trough Axis. As The Trough Pattern Moves
Eastward...an Associated Cold Front Is Expected To Sweep Through
The Mississippi Valley Mon And Mon Night. With Abundant Moisture
Streaming In From The Gulf...numerous To Widespread Thunderstorms
Are Expected Along And Well Ahead Of The Approaching Boundary.
While Deep Layer Instability Looks Marginal At Best Perhaps
Limiting The Severe Weather Threat...strong Vort Maxes Aloft
Moving Across The Area With The Cold Front Will Pose A Threat For
Heavy Rainfall And Some Strong Thunderstorms. The Front Then Looks
To Move Into The Central Gulf Tue With Drier And Cooler Air
Filtering Into The Region. Pleasant Fall Like Weather Looks To Be
On Tap For The Remainder Of The Work Week Before Yet Another
Potent Cold Front Approaches The Area By Next Weekend.
&&

[ROLLTIDE]

Fxus64 Klix 180823
Afdlix

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans La
323 Am Cdt Mon Sep 18 2006

.discussion...

Early This Morning The Cold Front Stretched From Michigan Into
Texas With An Upper-level Low Over The Northern Plains And Trough
Extending Toward West Texas. Ahead Of The Front In The Lower
Mississippi Valley The Precip Water Values Were Around 2.25
Inches. In Addition...the Remnants Of Hurricane Lane Have Moved
Across Mexico And Have Merged With The System In Texas. As The
Front Pushes Eastward Today We Can Expect Widespread
Shower/thunderstorm Activity Across The Area. The Extensive Cloud
Cover In The Area Will Limit Daytime Heating And Instability. Both
The Gfs And Nam Show A Wave Moving East From Texas Into Louisiana
Today And Weakening. The Gfs Is A Little Slower With The Weakening.
This Could Lead To A Small Chance For Severe Weather In The Area.
Otherwise...the Main Threats Will Be Heavy Rainfall.

Behind The Front...we Can Expect Cooler And Dry Weather Through
Thursday. Then The Next System Moves Into The Upper Mississippi
Valley On Friday With A Cold Front Pushing Into Louisiana And
Mississippi. The Gfs Shows This Front Slowing Until The Upper
Trough Digs Into The Plains And Helps To Push The Front Through
Our Area On Saturday.

[ROLLTIDE]

Fxus64 Klix 190905
Afdlix

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans La
400 Am Cdt Tue Sep 19 2006

.discussion...
At 06z...upper Air/surface Analysis Revealed A Deep...closed Low
Pressure Area Centered Over Upper Mi With A Trough Axis Into Srn
Plains. At Surface...an Associated Cold Front Extended To Around
Klch. This System Will Continue Se With Rainfall Possible Over
C/pwa Before Tapering Off After 18z Today. As Airmass Significantly
Dries Out...high Pressure Builds Into Region In Wake Of Surface
Front And Rain Ends Over Coastal Waters By 12z Wed. This Surface
High Pressure Will Slowly Shift To Atlantic Seaboard By 18z Thu...as
Another Mid-level Low Pressure Area Develops Over Central Plains.
Return Flow Commences During Same Period...pumping Gulf Moisture
Into Region Ahead Of Next Low Pressure System.

At 18z Thu... A Low Pressure Area Also Develops Over Central Plains
With Associated Cold Front Into Big Bend Of Tx. Models Showing
Differences On Position...with Gfs Trending Further S With Surface
Features Than Nam. Will Stick With Gfs Solutions Attm. Original
Surface Low/500 Mb Low Pushes Ne Across Great Lakes And Eventually
To New England...while This Second Srn Surface Low Lingers Over Srn
Plains Vacillating Over Ok/tx Through Sun. The Associated Elongated
Frontal Boundary Pretty Much Stalls From Oh River Valley To Ok/tx
After 12z Sat. This Boundary Will Help Focus Thunderstorm
Development...especially N Of C/pwa...until 12z Sun. Precip Remains
Possible Over Our C/pwa As Front Aligns Itself From Sc To Srn Tx By
18z Mon. By 06z Tue...high Pressure Builds Through Central U.s. And
Pushes Boundary To Gulfmx.

Marine Forecaster Will Continue Small Craft Exercise Caution
Headline In Marine Zones And Grids For Today. With Good Cold Air
Advection/nw Flow Today...winds Over Tidal And Coastal Waters Will
Remain Up A Bit.

Significant Drying Should Occur Across Nw Zones This Morning.
Tweaked Pops A Bit To Conform With Forecast Trends...as Airmass
Should Finally Dries Out.

Cold Air Advection Should Occur Over Nw Zones Of C/pwa Today And
Continue Through Wed. Coldest Night Will Occur Tonight For Most
Areas Except South Of The Lake. Coldest Night Will Likely Occur Wed
With A Light Ne To E Flow For Areas S Of Lake Pontchartrain. Temps
Will Recover Thu As Return Flow Begins Off Gulfmx. After Wet
Weekend...dry Conditions For The Latter Part Of Next Week.

[ROLLTIDE]

National Weather Service New Orleans La
332 Am Cdt Thu Sep 21 2006

.discussion...the Main Forecast Concern For This Package Is The
Rain Chance Through The Weekend. Return Flow Will Commence Today
With Strong Warm Air Advection And Moisture Return Developing By
Tonight In Advance Of Upper Low/trough Currently Over The Great
Basin That Will Deepen Over The Rockies And Northern And Central
Plains Through The End Of The Week Before Weakening And Shifting
East Across The Eastern Conus By The Beginning Of The Next Work
Week. Precipitable Water Values Are Forecast To Increase To Over
Two Inches Tonight And Friday With Values Remaining Near The Two
Inch Mark Until The Cold Front Passage On Sunday. The 00z Mos Guidance
Packages Have Increased Pops Tonight And Especially Friday Which
Looks Reasonable With Such Strong Warm Air Advection And Moisture
Return. In Addition...both The Gfs And Nam Indicate A Weak Mid Level
Short Wave Or Two Traversing The Area In The Southwest Flow Aloft
Later Tonight And Friday. The Timing Of The Next Cold Front Still
Seems To Be On Target For Sunday Over The Land Areas And Sunday
Evening/night Over The Adjacent Coastal Waters. After A Return To
Warmer And More Humid Conditions The Next Few Days...cooler And
Drier Air Will Filter Back Into The Forecast Area For The Upcoming
Work Week. Breezy Conditions Will Develop By Friday With Winds In
The Coastal Waters Increasing To The 15 To 20 Knots Range Later
Tonight And Persisting Through Friday.

&&

[ROLLTIDE]

afdlix


Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans la
324 am CDT Sat Sep 23 2006


Discussion...the main forecast concern for the morning forecast
package continues to be rain chances through the weekend. Only
isolated showers and thunderstorms were being observed across the
forecast area early this morning. However diurnal heating combined
with abundant moisture...precipitable water values around two
inches and surface dew points in the middle 70s...should again result
in scattered convection today although a well defined specific
focusing mechanism will be absent. The deep upper low/trough over
the central Continental U.S. Is forecast to weaken somewhat and open up as it
shifts east into the eastern U.S. By the beginning of the
upcoming work week pushing an associated cold front across the
area Sunday into Sunday night. The NAM remains slightly slower
than the GFS with the frontal passage and was generally followed
for this forecast. Numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected
Sunday as the boundary moves across the area and although the best
dynamics will likely remain north of the area...enough shear will
be present for a few strong to isolated severe storms. The
precipitation should clear most of the land zones Sunday evening
and the coastal zones by Monday morning. Drier and cooler air will
return in the wake of the front for the early and middle part of
the next work week. The next chance for showers and thunderstorms
will be in the offing for the end of the week as another upper
trough digs across the central and eastern U.S. And brings another
cold front across the forecast area Thursday night into Friday.
However...since it appears that deep moisture will be lacking...rain
chances should be fairly small.

[ROLLTIDE]

Fxus64 Klix 242024
Afdlix

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans La
324 Pm Cdt Sun Sep 24 2006

.discussion...

This Afternoon The Line Of Showers/thunderstorms Had Pushed Into
Extreme Southeast Louisiana And Coastal Mississippi. The Cold Front
Had Moved Near The Northwesetern Portion Of Our Pcwa. The Earlier
Convection Has Stabilized Much Of The Area...therefore The
Convection For The Remainder Of This Afternoon Into The Early
Evening Hours Over Land Should Be Somewhat Limited. The Front
Will Push Into The Coastal Waters Tonight With High Pressure
Building In Behind The Front. Temps Should Be Fairly Cool With
Lows Dropping Into The 50s Across The Northshore And South
Mississippi Areas Starting On Monday Night. As Winds Turn To The
Northeast Wednesday Morning The Temps May Drop To Near 60 In New
Orleans.

The Next System Will Drop Into The Plains On Thursday And Push
Through The Lower Mississippi Valley On Thursday Night/friday
Morning. The Gfs Shows This Frontal Passage A Little Earlier Than
Previous Runs And A Little Wetter. For Now We Will Keep The Pops
In The Slight Chance Category.

&&