New Orleans Local Weather thread

[dkmac]

54F temp and 41F dewpoint this morning under clear skies. The high today will be around 70F with a 70% chance of rain this afternoon/tonight.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
421 AM CST TUE JAN 24 2012

.SYNOPSIS...

FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS BECOME STATIONARY NEAR THE SOUTHERN LOUISIANA
COAST...NEAR PORT FOURCHON AND SOUTH OF BOOTHVILLE. DRIER AIR
FILTERING INTO THE AREA NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY...WITH DEW POINTS AT
LEAST 20 DEGREES LOWER THAN LAST NIGHT IN MANY AREAS NORTH OF LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN. TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S TO THE NORTH OF LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN...AND 60S TO THE SOUTH. FOG APPEARS TO BE MAINLY A
MARINE ISSUE...AND ONLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. WILL CANCEL
THE LAND BASED ADVISORY BUT CONTINUE THE MARINE ONE UNTIL ITS
EXPIRATION AT 14Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

PRETTY MUCH ALL THE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD
WILL OCCUR DURING THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. BOUNDARY
WILL BEGIN LIFTING NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TODAY. WHILE MUCH OF THE
COLUMN IS RATHER DRY THIS MORNING...ISENTROPIC LIFT...AS SEEN ON
THE 295K AND 300K CHARTS...WILL SERVE TO MOISTEN THINGS UP AND BE
NEAR SATURATION BY AFTERNOON NEAR THE BOUNDARY. THIS SHOULD
PROVIDE SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SHOWERS AS THE FRONT MOVES NORTHWARD.
GUIDANCE POPS APPEAR TO BE TOO LOW WITH THIS FEATURE. WILL LOWER
POPS SLIGHTLY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...AS SLIGHTLY CONCERNED THAT
PRECIPITATION MAY NOT BE MEASURABLE DURING THE DAY. AS BOUNDARY
SHIFTS NORTH TONIGHT...ENTIRE AREA WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE WARM
SECTOR BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. CHANCE POPS APPROPRIATE.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE QUIET PERIOD OF THE SHORT TERM...AWAITING
THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER LOW...WITH POPS IN THE 20 TO 40 PERCENT
RANGE. PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIKELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
AS SURFACE LOW MOVES ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN LOUISIANA. LOOKS
TO BE ANOTHER LOW CAPE/HIGH SHEAR SITUATION. SEVERE CONVECTION IS
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE...AND SPC HAS THE AREA OUTLOOKED FOR THURSDAY. BEST
CHANCES OF SEVERE SHOULD STAY WEST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...BUT COULD BE A PROBLEM DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY ON
THURSDAY. WIDESPREAD ONE TO TWO INCH RAIN AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED
WITH THIS SYSTEM AS WELL...ASSUMING THAT CONVECTION OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF DOES NOT CUT OFF THE MOISTURE INFLOW AS IT DID ON
JANUARY 9TH.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THURSDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT MAY ACTUALLY OCCUR DURING THE EVENING HOURS
AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH. 35

&&

.LONG TERM...

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEAST BEHIND THURSDAYS
FRONT...AND CONTROLS THE WEATHER OVER LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI
THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. A WEAK SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM
WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY...BUT WILL HAVE NO MOISTURE
TO WORK WITH. THE NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE AREA WILL LIKELY NOT
BE UNTIL ABOUT WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN
THE PAST WEEK...BUT IN ACTUALITY WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL. 35

&&

.AVIATION...

STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE COAST AND OFFSHORE WILL MOVE
INLAND AS A WARM FRONT LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. AS LIFT INCREASES
ACROSS THE AREA...CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER TO THE MVFR CATEGORY
IN MOST LOCATIONS DURING THE MID OR LATE AFTERNOON HOURS ALONG WITH
AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. THE MAV AND LATEST GFS LAMP
GUIDANCE ARE A BIT SLOWER TO BRING IN THE LOWER CIGS WITH THE MET
GUIDANCE FASTER. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE TO IFR TONIGHT
AS DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES IN AND BRINGS WIDESPREAD STRATUS
AND PATCHY FOG. AREAS PF RAIN...SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE LIFTING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH TONIGHT WITH DRIER CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. 22/TD

&&

.MARINE...

COLD FRONT APPEARS TO HAVE NEARLY REACHED ITS SOUTHERNMOST
POINT...SO WILL CLASSIFY IT AS A STATIONARY FRONT THAT BISECTS THE
EASTERN COASTAL WATERS FROM EAST-NORTHEAST TO WEST-SOUTHWEST...THEN
EXTENDS ALONG/NEAR THE COAST FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA
TO COASTAL TERREBONNE PARISH. NORTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15
KNOTS...OCCASIONALLY NEAR 15 KNOTS AT A COUPLE OF THE CMAN
OBSERVATIONS...WERE OBSERVED NORTH OF THE FRONT WITH LIGHTER EAST TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WAVE HEIGHTS
RANGED FROM 2 FEET NEAR SHORE TO 4 FEET OFFSHORE.

THESE WINDS AND WAVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING...THEN START
TO VEER TO EAST OVER NORTHERN/EASTERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY STARTS TO LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY MORNING...THE FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH ACROSS MOST OF THE
MARINE AREA. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN WHICH WILL CAUSE
SOUTHEAST WINDS TO INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS OVER THE
WESTERN/SOUTHERN WATERS...AND AROUND 15 KNOTS ELSEWHERE. THESE WINDS
WILL LIKELY FURTHER INCREASE A FEW KNOTS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY MORNING AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT APPROACH. A LONG FETCH OF 17 TO 20 KNOTS SOUTHERLY WINDS IS
EXPECTED TO BRING SEAS UP TO 7 FEET OVER MUCH OF THE COASTAL WATERS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP
THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS THURSDAY THEN A STOUT PRESSURE GRADIENT
WITH STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT BETWEEN THE
LOW TO THE NORTHEAST AND BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR MUCH OF
THE MARINE AREA FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

WINDS AND WAVES SHOULD EASE ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE AREA...BUT MODEL DATA...PARTICULARLY THE ECMWF...SHOWS
REINFORCING HIGH PRESSURE AND COLDER AIR ON SATURDAY THAT COULD
BRING WINDS AND WAVES BACK TO NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA
AGAIN IF THIS MODEL SOLUTION IS CORRECT. 22/TD

&&

DECISION SUPPORT... /EXPERIMENTAL/
DSS CODE...GREEN...HOWEVER...UPGRADE TO BLUE OR YELLOW IS EXPECTED
ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING DUE TO MARGINAL SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM AND HEAVY RAIN THREATS.
DEPLOYED...MORIAL CONVENTION CENTER-NOLA FOR AMS CONVENTION.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...NONE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR AND/OR
         DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  69  56  75  62 /  50  60  30  70
BTR  73  62  78  65 /  60  50  40  70
ASD  71  58  74  64 /  60  50  20  60
MSY  70  61  75  63 /  70  40  30  60
GPT  68  59  72  64 /  60  50  20  60
PQL  71  56  75  63 /  50  50  20  50

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO
     STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT
     FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20 NM...AND COASTAL
     WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO
     PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM.

MS...NONE.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO
     STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT
     FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20 NM...AND COASTAL
     WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO
     PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM. 

[dkmac]

65F temp and 64F dewpoint this morning. The high today will be in the middle 70's under cloudy skies and a 30% chance of rain after noon. Thursday is going to be wet.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
419 AM CST WED JAN 25 2012

.SYNOPSIS...

WARM FRONT AT THE SURFACE APPEARS TO BE NEAR LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN
WITH THE WARM FRONT ALOFT NEAR THE ARKANSAS-LOUISIANA BORDER.
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER SOUTH TEXAS AS EXPECTED. NO
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING...BUT LOW CLOUDS ARE
COMMONPLACE. ONLY REAL RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY ARE AT LAKEFRONT
AIRPORT...AND IN THE GULFPORT-BILOXI AREA. TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM
59 AT BATON ROUGE AND MCCOMB TO 68 AT NEW ORLEANS INTERNATIONAL
AIRPORT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

ALL VISIBILITIES 3 MILES OR ABOVE AT 4 AM...AND WITH LOW CLOUDS
AND ABOUT 10 KNOTS OF WIND...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
DENSE FOG...SO WILL CANCEL DENSE FOG ADVISORY WITH ZONE ISSUANCE.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. UPPER AND
SURFACE LOWS WILL BEGIN LIFTING OUT OF SOUTH TEXAS OVER THE NEXT
12 HOURS. THIS WILL TAKE SURFACE LOW OVER NORTHERN LOUISIANA LATE
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. ENTIRE AREA WILL MOVE INTO THE WARM SECTOR
WITH AN OCCLUDED FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS ON THURSDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MAIN ACTION
WILL BE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON ON THURSDAY. EXPECT
HIGH AREAL COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION. THIS WILL BE A LOW CAPE HIGH
SHEAR EVENT WITH CAPES GENERALLY REMAINING BELOW 1000 AND
INSTABILITIES AROUND -2. SPC HAS AREAS TO THE WEST OUTLOOKED FOR
LATE TONIGHT...AND THE ENTIRE AREA FOR THURSDAY. ONE LIMITING
FACTOR WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX TO DEVELOP
OFFSHORE...CUTTING OFF THE BEST MOISTURE INFLOW TO THE AREA. THERE
ARE HINTS OF THIS IN THE VERTICAL MOTION AND PRECIPITATION FIELDS
IN THE NAM/GFS/WRF SOLUTIONS. WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF POSSIBLE
SEVERE IN THE HWO...BUT NOT MENTION IN ZFP AT THIS TIME.

PRECIPITATION MAY LINGER FOR A FEW HOURS THURSDAY EVENING BEHIND
THE FRONT...BUT WITH DEPARTURE OF UPPER LOW FRIDAY MORNING...SKIES
SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY. MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE UNTIL ABOUT 6 TO 12 HOURS AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. EVEN
WITH THE COOLING...FRIDAY HIGHS WILL STILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. 35

&&

.LONG TERM...

A WEAKENING SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY...BUT
WILL HAVE NO MOISTURE TO WORK WITH FOR PRECIPITATION. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTROL THE WEATHER OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. NO REAL COLD
AIR TO WORK WITH SO HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL END UP BEING ABOUT 5 TO
10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. LOWS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY COULD BE A
COUPLE DEGREES BELOW NORMAL BUT NOTHING UNUSUAL FOR LATE JANUARY. 35

&&

.AVIATION...

FAIRLY WIDESPREAD LIFR TO IFR CONDITIONS MAINLY DUE TO CIGS WILL
PREVAIL EARLY...HOWEVER...THE WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
MOVE NORTH NEAR LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI COAST
EARLY THIS MORNING...AND SATELLITE LOOPS AND OBSERVATIONS SHOW A
CLEARING TREND IN MUCH OF THE WARM SECTOR FROM JUST SOUTH OF KHUM TO
JUST SOUTH OF KMSY AND KNBG...THEN EAST-SOUTHEAST FROM THERE ACROSS
THE NORTH GULF OF MEXICO. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...KMSY AND KNEW
MAY SEE AT LEAST A TEMPORARY PERIOD OF VFR WITH GOOD VSBYS AND FEW
TO SCATTERED CLOUDS. WITH DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE...THERE
SHOULD BE REDEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH
DAYTIME HEATING...BUT OVERALL CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR BY
LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. INCREASING SHRA/TSRA AND LOWERING
CONDITIONS TO IFR ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND ESPECIALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING AS THE LOW PRESSURE AREA AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACH. 22/TD

&&

.MARINE...

SOME FOG HAS BEEN OCCURRING JUST NORTH OF A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WHICH HAS BEEN MOVING SLOWLY NORTH...AND IS NEARING THE SOUTH SHORE
OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND THE MISSISSIPPI GULF COAST. VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS OF ONE QUARTER MILE TO ONE MILE ARE EXPECTED TO ONLY
LAST AN HOUR OR TWO...SO DO NOT PLAN ON ISSUING A MARINE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY. OTHERWISE...TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO
CAUSE SOUTHEAST WINDS TO INCREASE TO NEAR 15 KNOTS TODAY...EXCEPT 15
TO 20 KNOTS OVER THE MIDDLE LEGS OF THE COASTAL WATERS SURROUNDING
SOUTHWEST PASS. A LONG FETCH OF THESE STRONGER WINDS DEEP INTO EAST
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO WILL LIKELY CAUSE SEAS TO BUILD TO 6 FEET
OVER MUCH OF THE COASTAL WATERS. HAVE ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE
CAUTION HEADLINE VALID FOR TODAY STARTING AT 9 AM.

STRONGER SOUTHERLY WINDS REACHING AROUND 20 KNOTS IN ADVANCE OF THE
COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY SHOULD BRING SEAS UP TO 7 FEET. THE COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS THURSDAY AS
THE LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVES EAST ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. THE COMBINATION OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND DOWNWARD
TRANSPORT OF STRONGER WINDS ALOFT DUE TO THE DYNAMIC NATURE OF THE
MID LEVEL STORM...AND THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL JETSTREAM WILL CAUSE
WINDS TO FURTHER INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS AS THEY SHIFT TO THE
WEST AND NORTHWEST THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR MUCH OF THE MARINE AREA
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

WINDS AND WAVES WILL EASE DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS...BUT THAT WILL BE SHORT LIVED...AS REINFORCING HIGH PRESSURE
WITH COLDER AIR ARRIVING LATE SATURDAY SHOULD BRING WINDS AND WAVES
BACK TO NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING. 22/TD

&&

DECISION SUPPORT... /EXPERIMENTAL/
DSS CODE...BLUE...HOWEVER...UPGRADE TO YELLOW IS EXPECTED TONIGHT
AND THURSDAY DUE TO SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCAL
HEAVY RAIN THREATS.
DEPLOYED...MORIAL CONVENTION CENTER-NOLA FOR AMS CONVENTION.
ACTIVATION...INCREASED WFO STAFFING STARTING THIS EVENING THROUGH AT
LEAST THURSDAY MORNING.
ACTIVITIES...NONE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR AND/OR
         DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  74  62  72  49 /  30  80  90  30
BTR  78  64  73  50 /  40  80  90  20
ASD  75  64  73  52 /  30  70  90  40
MSY  76  64  73  53 /  30  70  90  30
GPT  72  64  71  55 /  20  70  90  50
PQL  74  63  72  57 /  20  40  90  60

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE. 

[dkmac]

65F temp and dewpoint with heavy rain this morning. Solid lightning as the squall line approached, and we've gotten about .75 inches of rain so far. Rain should end around 10ish here on the Northshore, and temps will start falling as the winds shift to the NW dropping into the 50's tonight. Weekend weather looks great.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
542 AM CST THU JAN 26 2012

.SHORT TERM...

TORNADO WATCH AND FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAVE RECENTLY BEEN
EXPANDED/ISSUED UNTIL NOON CST FOR THE SAME LOCATIONS...ROUGHLY
EAST OF A LINE FROM NEAR TYLERTOWN TO HAMMOND TO THE ATCHAFALAYA
RIVER WEST OF HOUMA...AND SOUTH INTO THE COASTAL WATERS OUT 20
NAUTICAL MILES.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS WILL BE OPENING INTO A
DEEP SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST/EAST ACROSS THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT. THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MOST LAND AREAS BY NOON
AND THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS BY SUNSET. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND
SHEAR...AND MODERATE INSTABILITY ARE MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDING ISOLATED TORNADOES AND LOCALIZED
FLOODING OF URBAN AREAS...CANALS...AND SMALL STREAMS. VERY
LOCALIZED...MORE SERIOUS FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE WHERE
TRAINING OF VERY HEAVY RAIN OCCURS. THE MAIN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS
IS MOVING EAST...BUT THERE HAVE BEEN OCCASIONAL...NEARLY
STATIONARY BANDS OF TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS. HAVE TAPERED THE POP
FROM CHANCE CATEGORY WEST TO CATEGORICAL CENTRAL AND EAST...WITH A
DRYING TREND FROM THE WEST DURING THE DAY AS THE FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH.

DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
FROM THE WEST TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...

A GENERALLY CALMER WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
WILL CARVE OUT A DEEPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES
SUNDAY...BUT THIS WILL QUICKLY DEAMPLIFY AND MOVE EAST BY MONDAY.
A REINFORCING COLD FRONT FOLLOWED BY COOL HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED
SATURDAY WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS AND NO PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED. ONLY A BRIEF PERIOD OF SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...THEN
A RETURN TO THE TYPICAL ABOVE NORMAL WINTER OF 2011/2012
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PASS WELL TO THE NORTH ON TUESDAY
WHICH WILL NOT SEND A COLD FRONT OUR WAY...THEN THE MODELS DIVERGE
QUITE A BIT GOING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF SHOWS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE SOUTHWEST CONUS WHILE THE GFS
DEVELOPS A RIDGE. HAVE NOT GONE ANY HIGHER THAN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
RAIN WITH ANY GIVEN SYSTEM NEXT WEEK AT THIS POINT.

&&

.MARINE...

LOW PRESSURE AREA AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SHOULD PROVIDE A COMBINATION OF TIGHTER PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND MIXING DOWN OF STRONGER WINDS ALOFT TO SUPPORT WINDS
OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEAS UP TO 7 FEET FOR A PERIOD LATER TODAY
AND TONIGHT. HAVE ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THROUGH
TONIGHT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS...AND CHANDELEUR AND BRETON SOUNDS.
WIND AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE ON FRIDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA
BUILDS OVER THE AREA.

THE REINFORCEMENT OF HIGH PRESSURE ON SATURDAY WILL CAUSE
NORTHEAST WINDS TO APPROACH 20 KNOTS BRIEFLY AGAIN LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL
REMAIN A BIT BREEZY...NEAR 15 KNOTS...FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD
SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING AS THE STRONGER HIGH
PRESSURE AREA MOVES EAST ACROSS LAND AREAS.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  71  44  64  42 /  60  10   0  10
BTR  70  47  67  46 /  40  10   0  10
ASD  73  45  67  41 /  90  10   0  10
MSY  72  51  65  47 /  80  10   0  10
GPT  74  48  67  43 /  90  10   0  10
PQL  76  47  68  38 /  90  10   0  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     LOWER JEFFERSON...LOWER LAFOURCHE...LOWER
     PLAQUEMINES...LOWER ST. BERNARD...LOWER
     TERREBONNE...NORTHERN TANGIPAHOA...ORLEANS...SOUTHERN
     TANGIPAHOA...ST. CHARLES...ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST...ST.
     TAMMANY...UPPER JEFFERSON...UPPER LAFOURCHE...UPPER
     PLAQUEMINES...UPPER ST. BERNARD...UPPER TERREBONNE...AND
     WASHINGTON.

MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     HANCOCK...HARRISON...JACKSON...PEARL RIVER...AND WALTHALL.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THURSDAY TO 6 AM FRIDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON
     TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO
     60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM. 

[ROLLTIDE]

...

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA

712 AM CST THU JAN 26 2012



THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A



* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

CENTRAL PLAQUEMINES PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...



* UNTIL 745 AM CST



* AT 712 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR VENICE...OR

24 MILES SOUTHEAST OF PORT SULPHUR...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.



* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO

BOOTHVILLE

[dkmac]

47F temp and 45F dewpoint under starry skies this morning. The inch or so of rain we got here on the Northshore yesterday has been sucked into the ground. The high today will be in the upper 60's under sunny skies and low humidity, then a low overnight in the lower 40's.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
359 AM CST FRI JAN 27 2012

.SHORT TERM...
COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH YESTERDAY CONTINUES TO MARCH EASTWARD
...NOW WELL INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.
DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN SLOWLY BUT STEADILY FALLING AS NORTHWEST WINDS
BRING IN THE DRIER AIR. CLOUD CLEARING LINE IS THROUGH BATON ROUGE
AND MCCOMB AND NOW APPROACHING TIDAL LAKES. WILL LIKELY BE
COMPLETELY CLEAR NEAR SUNRISE OR CLOSE TO THEREAFTER. HIGH PRESSURE
TO BUILD IN TODAY WHICH WILL LEND TO TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
AREA. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN
YESTERDAY...STILL A FEW ABOVE NORMAL AS COLD AIR STILL NOT HERE YET.
SO JUST CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TODAY AS WELL AS OVERNIGHT. GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE LOWER TO
MID 40S.

.LONG TERM...
A SECONDARY SURGE OF COLD AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA SATURDAY AS
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY AND SENDS A COLD FRONT DOWN. THIS WILL FINALLY BRING US
DOWN BELOW NORMAL BUT NOT BY MUCH AND ONLY BRIEFLY. WE WILL SEE 2
NIGHTS OF LOWS IN THE MID 30S NORTH TO MID 40S ALONG THE COAST.
ISOLATED LOCATIONS IN SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI MAY BRIEFLY DIP DOWN TO
FREEZING. SURFACE RIDGE WILL PROGRESSIVELY SHIFT EASTWARD WITH
RETURN GULF FLOW BY MONDAY. INCREASING MOISTURE AND SLIGHT UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING WILL BRING TEMPS BACK UP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S ON
MONDAY AND SHOULD MAINTAIN NEAR 70 HIGHS THE REST OF THE WEEK.
MEANWHILE...MODELS SUGGEST A SLOWLY DEVELOPING AND POSITIVELY TILTED
TROUGH OVER THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF RAIN ACROSS THE AREA....FROM TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY. THERE/S STILL DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN MODEL SOLUTIONS
ON THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE TROUGH WHICH WILL LIKELY INFLUENCE HOW
MUCH RAIN DEVELOPS. REGARDLESS...HAVE DECIDED TO INCREASE POPS TO
CHANCE CATEGORY AS IT LOOKS MORE LIKELY THAT WE WILL SEE ACTIVITY.
ATTM...LOOKS FAIRLY STABLE WITH JUST SHOWER ACTIVITY BUT MODELS DO
SHOW INSTABILITY TO THE WEST OF THE CWA. SOLUTIONS SUGGEST CLEARING
BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND POSSIBLE COOL DOWN OVER THE WEEKEND.

MEFFER
&&

.AVIATION...
LAYER OF STRATUS WITH CIGS 2200-3500 FT WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR OUT
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. ONCE THE STRATUS CLEARS OUT SKIES SHOULD
REMAIN CLR. STRONGER WINDS AT KMSY AND KNEW ARE EXPECTED TO EASE TO
LESS THAN 10 KNOTS BY 15Z TODAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. 22/TD

&&

.MARINE...
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS ARE STARTING TO EASE AS THE SURFACE LOW
DEPARTS AND THE CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. WINDS AND SEAS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA BY 7 AM...BUT WILL KEEP A CAUTION HEADLINE IN
EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM NEAR SHORE AND NOON OVER OFFSHORE WATERS WHERE
SEAS WILL REMAIN NEAR 6 FEET A BIT LONGER EVEN AFTER WINDS DIE DOWN.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL FALL OFF NICELY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES WEST OVER THE AREA.

REINFORCING COLD FRONT FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BRING
NORTHEAST WINDS BACK UP TO NEAR 15 KNOTS SATURDAY EVENING...AND 15
TO 20 KNOTS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE EASING
BACK TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY. 22/TD

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  64  41  63  34 /   0   0   0   0
BTR  67  44  66  38 /   0   0   0   0
ASD  67  40  67  37 /   0   0   0   0
MSY  65  47  67  43 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  66  42  68  38 /   0   0   0   0
PQL  67  39  69  37 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO
     STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO
     THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM...LAKE
     BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND
     MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO
     STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO
     THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM...LAKE
     BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND
     MISSISSIPPI SOUND. 

[dkmac]

36F temp and 35F dewpoint this morning under clear skies. The high today will be in the mid 60's with sunny skies. Sunday will be an instant replay of today.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
404 AM CST SAT JAN 28 2012

.SHORT TERM...
QUIET WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA. SURFACE RIDGE
CENTERED OVER THE CWA IS BREAKING DOWN AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS
APPROACHING THE AREA. THAT BOUNDARY IS CURRENTLY IN THE NORTHWESTERN
PART OF THE STATE. EXPECT A MID MORNING ARRIVAL FOR NWRN ZONES AND
THEN STEADY PROGRESSION SOUTH AND EAST THEREAFTER. THE INITIAL
IMPACTS FROM THIS FRONT WILL BE DEPEND ON LOCATION IN THE CWA. SWRN
MISSISSIPPI AND NWRN BATON ROUGE AREAS WILL NOT WARM QUITE AS MUCH
AS OTHERS AS COLD AIR ADVECTS IN. EXPECT LOWER TO MID 60 HIGHS
THERE. UPPER 60S HIGHS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE CWA.
OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AS THERE IS LITTLE CLOUD COVER
ACCOMPANYING THE BOUNDARY.

AS SURFACE RIDGE QUICKLY MOVES IN TODAY...EXPECT WINDS TO FALL
RAPIDLY AFTER SUNSET. THOUGH WINDS LIKELY WONT FALL TO CALM...SHOULD
STILL BE LIGHT ENOUGH...IN COMBINATION WITH FALLING DEWPOINTS AND
CLEAR SKIES TO ALLOW TEMPS TO BOTTOM OUT QUITE LOW. SOUTHERN MS
COUNTIES TO SEE NEAR FREEZING LOWS WHILE NEW ORLEANS AND SOUTHWARD TO
HAVE LOW 40S.


.LONG TERM...
DID MAKE SOME CHANGES TO THE FORECAST...MAINLY KEEPING THE TREND OF
INCREASING MID WEEK POPS. MODELS LOOK FAIRLY SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS
RUNS WHERE A VERY POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY DEVELOPS AND
TRACKS ACROSS THE COUNTRY. SURFACE RIDGE WILL PROGRESSIVELY SHIFT
EASTWARD WITH RETURN GULF FLOW BY MONDAY. INCREASING MOISTURE AND
SLIGHT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BRING TEMPS BACK UP INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 60S ON MONDAY AND SHOULD MAINTAIN NEAR 70 HIGHS THE REST OF
THE WEEK. MARINE TYPE SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TUESDAY NIGHT...FAIRLY
ISOLATED IN NATURE. COVERAGE WILL INCREASE ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHER
POPS CLOSER TO THE COAST. SURFACE HEATING TO LEND TO ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTER...SO HAVE
ADDED THAT TO FCST. AS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH DRIFTS SOUTH AND STALLS OVER THE AREA THURSDAY...EXPECT
EVEN HIGHER COVERAGE OF RAIN. CURRENT FCST IS SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE
WITH RAIN CHANCES VARYING FROM 40 TO 60 PCT. WITH MODEL SOLUTIONS
SUGGESTING A SLIGHTLY SLOWER PASSAGE OF THE BOUNDARY...HAVE FOLLOWED
SUIT AND SLOWED DOWN THE PROGRESSION OF CLEARING WITH THE FCST.
STILL TO HAVE SHOWERS ONGOING FROM AROUND NEW ORLEANS AND SOUTHWARD
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT CLEARING SOON AFTER.

CLEAR AND COOL FOR THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND.

MEFFER
&&


.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT EACH OF THE TERMINALS
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS MORNING WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTH IN ITS WAKE.
WINDS OFF OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN WILL RESULT IN STRONGER AND SOMEWHAT
GUSTY WINDS TONIGHT AT KMSY AND KNEW. 11

&&

.MARINE...
A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE COASTAL WATER TODAY.
IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION AND PERSIST INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK AND THEN SHIFT EAST. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL START TO INCREASE
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON...AND REACH THE 15 TO 20
KNOTS RANGE ACROSS THE GULF COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT. THE OFFSHORE
FLOW WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT. ONSHORE FLOW
WILL RETURN NEXT WEEK AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD
INTO THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. 11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  63  31  61  32 /   0   0   0   0
BTR  65  35  62  36 /   0   0   0   0
ASD  67  33  61  33 /   0   0   0   0
MSY  66  42  61  41 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  67  35  62  34 /   0   0   0   0
PQL  67  31  62  32 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE. 

[dkmac]

36F temp and 29F dewpoint this morning. The high today will be in the lower 60's under sunny skies. A new cold front forecasted for Wednesday.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
341 AM CST SUN JAN 29 2012

.SHORT TERM...
TRANQUIL CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA IN THE
SHORT TERM. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION TODAY WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST
TONIGHT AND MONDAY...ALLOWING FOR A RETURN OF A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
OF AIR AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES FOR THE BEGINNING OR THE WORK
WEEK. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL MOVE OFF
THE COAST TONIGHT WITH A TRANSITION TO A MORE ZONAL OR WEST SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. 11

.LONG TERM...
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM WILL MOVE ACROSS
NORTHERN MEXICO AND SOUTHERN TEXAS AND THEN DAMPEN OUT AS IT MOVES
ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS
FEATURE WILL LIKELY BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER...BUT LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF RAIN AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL STILL BE LACKING.
BETTER CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL BE IN THE OFFING WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A QUICK MOVING SHORT
WAVE TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL MOVE FROM THE CENTRAL CONUS
AND ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY REGIONS PUSHING A COLD
FRONT INTO THE SOUTHERN STATES. LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ALONG
WITH DEEPENING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING OUT OF
THE NORTHWEST AT MID WEEK IS FORECAST TO DIVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE
CENTRAL CONUS AND EVOLVE INTO A FAIRLY DEEP TROUGH ACROSS THE
EASTERN U.S. FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL AGAIN BRING
SCATTERED CONVECTION TO THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO THEN PUSH THROUGH THE AREA
ABOUT LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE VARIOUS MODELS. COLDER CONDITIONS
WILL THEN RETURN TO THE FORECAST AREA FOR NEXT WEEKEND. 11

&&

.AVIATION...
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS TRANSPORTING ACROSS LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 12 KNOTS AT KMSY AND KNEW
THROUGH 15Z. WINDS WILL DECREASE AFTER 15Z...AS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS
ALOFT BEGIN TO WEAKEN FOR THOSE TERMINALS. ALL OTHERS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT WITH NORTHEASTERLY WINDS. OTHERWISE...CLEAR SKIES AND GOOD
VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS.

MEFFER

&&

.MARINE...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ALONG WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION
CONTINUES TO KEEP WINDS ELEVATED. THESE SMALL CRAFT WINDS WILL
QUICKLY FALL OFF THIS MORNING AS THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE MOVES CLOSE
TO THE AREA AND WEAKENS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. SO...WILL ALLOW THE
ADVISORY TO EXPIRE MID MORNING AS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. THE SURFACE
HIGH WILL STEADILY MOVE EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC. THIS WILL ALLOW
WINDS TO ROTATE FROM NORTHEAST TODAY TO EAST AND THEN SOUTHEAST
LATER ON MONDAY. LIGHTER ONSHORE FLOW TO PERSIST UNTIL NEXT FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AT THE END OF THIS WEEK. THOUGH MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE NOT
BEEN PARTICULARLY CONSISTENT...HAVE GONE WITH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING
FROPA IN THE COASTAL WATERS PER GFS.

MEFFER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  62  33  69  45 /   0   0   0   0
BTR  63  37  69  51 /   0   0   0   0
ASD  63  32  68  46 /   0   0   0   0
MSY  63  41  69  53 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  63  33  68  47 /   0   0   0   0
PQL  63  31  67  44 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO
     STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO
     THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND
     COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM.

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO
     STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO
     THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND
     COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM. 

[dkmac]

33F temp and 32F dewpoint this morning under clear skies. The high today will be in the upper 60's with sunny skies. Good chance of rain on Wednesday.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
416 AM CST MON JAN 30 2012

.SHORT TERM...

FAIRLY QUIET MORNING AND DAY SHAPING UP TODAY WITH ONE EXCEPTION
THIS MORNING. LIGHT SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL WINDS COMBINED WITH COOL
TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING ARE ALLOWING SMOKE TO POOL NEAR THE
GROUND MAINLY IN ORLEANS PARISH ALONG INTERSTATE 10 BETWEEN
INTERSTATE 510 AND THE TWIN SPAN BRIDGES. VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN
VERY LOW IN AREAS AT TIMES ALONG THE INTERSTATE AND CAN BE
PROBLEMATIC THIS MORNING FOR RUSH HOUR. WILL BE REISSUING SPS FOR
ST. TAMMANY AND ORLEANS PARISH TO UPDATE AND COVER THE MORNING
COMMUTE. OTHERWISE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SHIFT
EASTWARD WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR RETURN FLOW FROM THE EAST AND THEN
SOUTHEAST BY THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

.LONG TERM...

NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST THROUGH THE FIRST COUPLE OF
DAYS AS THINGS LOOK TO BE FAIRLY STRAIGHTFORWARD. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST AS A UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING IN FROM
TEXAS BEGINS TO INCREASE RAIN CHANCES STARTING TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. THERE ARE SOME MODEL
DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH OF THIS FEATURE WHICH IS PLAYING A
ROLE IN THE AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. SOME OF THE RAW
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SOME AREAS OF 2 PLUS INCH RAINFALL MAKING IT TO
THE COAST FOR THE PERIOD BUT GUIDANCE FROM HPC KEEPS THE TOTALS
UNDER AN INCH FOR MOST OF THE LAND AREAS AT THIS TIME. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR...BUT SOME HEAVY RAINFALL WORDING MAY BE
NEEDED EVENTUALLY FOR THE SOUTHSHORE AND SPECIFICALLY THE COASTAL
AREAS FROM TERREBONNE OVER TO ST. BERNARD. THERE SHOULD BE A BIT
OF A BREAK IN THE ACTION ON THURSDAY BEFORE THE APPROACH OF THE
NEXT SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGHOUT THAT
PERIOD WITH BOTH HIGHS AND LOWS RUNNING AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE
CLIMO.

BEGINNING ON FRIDAY IS WHEN THINGS GET A BIT MORE INTERESTING. NOT
A WHOLE LOT OF CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT IN EITHER MAIN MODEL
SOLUTION. MADE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST ON BOTH FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY AS THE TIMING OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CONTINUE TO BE THE ISSUE. THE GFS BRINGS THE
BULK OF THE ACTIVITY THROUGH ON SATURDAY AND MOVES THE SYSTEM OUT
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE EURO ON THE OTHER HAND NOW TAKES A MUCH
SLOWER TREK THROUGH THE AREA WHICH WOULD SHIFT THE FOCUS TO THE
SUNDAY AND MONDAY TIME PERIOD. OBVIOUSLY THE TIMING OF THE FRONT
WILL PLAY A LARGE ROLE IN THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND
TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND. FOR NOW WILL STICK WITH SATURDAY
AS THE LIKELY TARGET OF THE BULK OF THE RAIN. WITH THE TIMING
DIFFERENCES...THE TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY HAD TO BE ADJUSTED
UPWARD...ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING HOURS. DID NOT GO ALL THE WAY
TO GUIDANCE AS A 10 PLUS DEGREE JUMP IN TEMPERATURES DID NOT SEEM
PRUDENT GIVEN THE MODEL DIFFERENCES AND THE UNCERTAINTY. BASICALLY
SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE NEW
GUIDANCE IN DEFERENCE TO THE LACK OF RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY.

ALL OF THAT SAID...ADDITIONAL CHANGES WILL NEED TO BE MADE TO THE
ENTIRE WEEKEND PERIOD INCLUDING MONDAY IF THE SLOWER EURO SOLUTION
PANS OUT.

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. CIRRUS CLOUDS IN SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT LIGHT EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

.MARINE...

SURFACE RIDGE ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF STATES IS STEADILY MOVING EAST
AND SHOULD BE IN THE ATLANTIC BY THIS EVENING. THIS WILL ALLOW
WINDS TO CONTINUE VEERING FROM EAST-NORTHEAST THIS MORNING TO
SOUTHEAST LATER IN THE AFTERNOON TO EVENING HOURS. THIS FLOW REGIME
WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID WEEK. MODELS SUGGEST A WEAK DISTURBANCE
WILL TRACK ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WOULD CAUSE A BRIEF
INCREASE IN ONSHORE POSSIBLY INTO EXERCISE CAUTION CRITERIA...ALONG
WITH A SHORT PERIOD OF LIGHTER OFFSHORE WINDS AS THE TROUGH PASSES
BEFORE SOUTHEAST WINDS RETURN. THE MAIN FRONT NOW LOOKS LIKE IT WONT
PASS TILL SATURDAY. SHOULD BE NOTED THAT MODEL RUN TO RUN
CONSISTENCY HAS BEEN VERY POOR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  69  45  72  54 /   0   0  10  20
BTR  70  51  73  58 /   0   0  10  30
ASD  67  47  72  56 /   0   0  10  30
MSY  69  53  73  60 /   0   0  10  30
GPT  66  49  71  56 /   0   0  10  30
PQL  67  46  71  55 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&& 

[dkmac]

56F temp and 53F dewpoint this morning under partly cloudy skies. Today's high will be in the upper 70's with a 20% chance of rain, increasing to an 80% chance tonight. Next predicted cold front pushed back to Sunday/Sunday night.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
513 AM CST TUE JAN 31 2012

.SUNOPSIS...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATED A SOUTHERN
BRANCH JETSTREAM ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST REGION WITH WEAK
DISTURBANCES MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST OUT OF MEXICO AND TEXAS. A
LARGE 1030 MB SURFACE HIGH REMAINS CENTERED NEAR THE GEORGIA/SOUTH
CAROLINA BORDER WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING WEST ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A WARM FRONT IS OVER THE NEARSHORE COASTAL
WATERS WEST OF SOUTHWEST PASS.

.SHORT TERM...
WARM AIR ADVECTION AND INCREASED MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO INCREASED
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND RAIN...MAINLY STARTING THIS EVENING...BUT A
FEW SPRINKLES OR STRAY SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY. CONFIDENCE IS
NOT NORMALLY THE HIGHEST IN THESE PATTERNS WITH REGARDS TO TIMING
AND COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION...SO WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE 00Z ECMWF
AND 03Z SREF WHICH APPEAR TO BE THE MOST CONSISTENT WITH THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE COMBINATION OF FORCING AND SLIGHT
INSTABILITY SHOULD BE ADEQUATE TO SUPPORT AT LEAST ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MIXED WITH MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS BY LATE TONIGHT.

A PHASING OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL PUSH INTO THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD CONSOLIDATE
SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION
WEDNESDAY MORNING...THEN MOVE SLOWLY EAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD WEDNESDAY
MORNING...THEN SHIFT EAST WITH BETTER RAIN CHANCES OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI GULF COAST AND ADJACENT GULF WATERS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED...HOWEVER LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE AS A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY BE IN
PLACE. SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH EAST OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH A SHORTWAVE RIDGE ALOFT BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. THE
LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH SOUTH TOWARDS THE COAST OR
COASTAL WATERS AS A WEAK COLD FRONT. ANY LEFTOVER RAIN TO THE EAST
WILL END WEDNESDAY EVENING.

.LONG TERM...
THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM TO AFFECT OUR REGION WILL BE A DEEP
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY AND THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES THURSDAY NIGHT. THE
ECMWF BRINGS A WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE INTO THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST REGION THURSDAY NIGHT ACCOMPANIED BY FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
MODERATE RAINFALL. MOST OF THE OTHER MODELS REMAIN DRY...SO WILL
ONLY MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AT THIS POINT. THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST INTO THE PLAINS
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WARM AIR ADVECTION AND SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST WILL SUPPORT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH ADDITIONAL CHANCES OF RAIN IN ADVANCE OF
THE FRONT. 22/TD

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MORNING AS CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN AROUND
OVC090. ALL TERMINALS WILL SEE CEILINGS LOWER TO AROUND BKN025 WITH A
SECOND DECK AT ABOUT OVC050. SHOULD STAY THAT WAY THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. SOME LIGHT RAIN MAY OCCUR AT SOME SITES
TODAY BUT WILL HOLD OFF WITH PREVAILING GROUPS CONTAINING PRECIP
UNTIL AFTER 03Z. MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS BUT
MAY HAVE TO TEMPO A GROUP FOR TS.

&&

.MARINE...
EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS THIS MORNING WILL REMAIN ON THE BACK SIDE OF A
RETREATING RIDGE. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GULF WEDNESDAY NIGHT CAUSING A BRIEF INCREASE IN ONSHORE WINDS
POSSIBLY INTO EXERCISE CAUTION CRITERIA...ALONG WITH A SHORT PERIOD
OF LIGHTER OFFSHORE WINDS AS THE TROUGH PASSES BEFORE SOUTHEAST
WINDS RETURN. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD PASS DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  72  57  71  56 /  10  40  60  20
BTR  74  61  75  60 /  10  50  60  20
ASD  73  59  72  56 /  10  60  80  20
MSY  74  60  73  58 /  20  70  80  20
GPT  71  59  69  55 /  10  60  90  20
PQL  73  57  71  54 /  10  60  90  30

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE. 

[dkmac]

65F temp and dewpoint this morning under cloudy skies with some light rain falling. The high today will be in the mid 70's with a 70% chance of rain.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTION...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
430 AM CST WED FEB 1 2012

.SHORT TERM...
A PERSISTENT AREA OF CONVECTION DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUES
EARLY THIS MORNING IN A WEAK AREA OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE THAT
EXTENDS FROM SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA TO SOUTHWEST
MISSISSIPPI. THIS CONVECTION WILL POSSIBLY BEING SUPPORTED BY A
SUBTLE WEAK SHORT WAVE IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MOVING ACROSS
THE REGION...AND ENHANCED BY THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF AN UPPER
JET OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. INDIVIDUAL CELLS HAVE
OCCASIONALLY EXHIBITED ROTATION AND BOWING SEGMENTS. RECENT RADAR
TRENDS HAVE INDICATED THAT OVERALL THE CELLS ARE NOW WEAKENING.
IN ADDITION...LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL HAS OCCURRED WITH SOME OF
THE STRONGER CELLS WITH RADAR RAINFALL ESTIMATES AROUND TWO INCHES
IN PORTIONS OF WILKINSON COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI.

MORE WET WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AS AN
UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WHILE ANOTHER WEAK SHORT
WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TRAVERSES THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST REGION. MODELS FORECAST THE 85H THETAE AXIS CURRENTLY
EXTENDING FROM SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA INTO SOUTHWEST
MISSISSIPPI TO SHIFT SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA DURING THE
COURSE OF THE DAY. THE THE RRQ OF THE UPPER JET OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL ALSO INFLUENCE THE REGION TODAY PROVIDING
ADDITIONAL LIFT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND
1.3 INCHES OR SO. AS A RESULT...THERE SHOULD BE AMPLE MOISTURE TO
WORK WITH. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATED FOR 06Z 0 TO 3 KM STORM
RELATIVE HELICITY VALUES IN EXCESS OF 200 UNITS...BUT THESE VALUES
ARE FORECAST TO DECREASE DURING THE EARLY MORNING. THEREFORE...IT
APPEARS AS IF NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL RULE
THE DAY. ANY SEVERE OR STRONGER STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR EARLY
THIS MORNING. THE MAIN CONCERN TODAY WILL BE THE THREAT FOR LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. HOWEVER...IT WILL BE RATHER DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT
THE EXACT AREAS THAT WILL SEE THE HEAVIEST RAIN AND IT SHOULD BE
FAIRLY LOCALIZED.

THE MAIN LIFT SHOULD MOVE OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT RESULTING IN
DIMINISHING RAIN CHANCES FOR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF
HAVE KEYED IN ON ANOTHER SHORT WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT TO AFFECT THE AREA FRIDAY. THE NAM IS CONSIDERABLY DRIER. HAVE
DECIDED TO INCREASE POPS FOR FRIDAY...AND THIS CONVECTION MAY SPILL
OVER INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS WELL. 11

.LONG TERM...
MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE EVOLUTION OF A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS MORNING AS IT MOVES
ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND THEN INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. AND CLOSES OFF.
THE GFS STILL IS THE FASTEST WHILE THE ECMWF IS THE SLOWEST. AS A
RESULT...THE GFS PUSHES A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY
LATE SATURDAY WHICH CLEARS THE AREA BY SUNDAY. THE ECMWF ON THE
OTHER HAND...TAKES ITS SWEET TIME IN MOVING THE COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE AREA...AND ACTUALLY DOES NOT HAVE IT EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK. WE DECIDED TO DO A BLEND OF THE MODELS AND
HAVE THE COLD FRONT MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND
MOVE EAST OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY SUNDAY WITH MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION COMING TO AN END BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. 11

&&

.AVIATION...
PRIMARILY IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE EARLY AND MID
MORNING HOURS DUE MAINLY TO LOW CEILINGS. THESE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO MVFR IN THE 15Z TO 18Z TIME FRAME WHICH WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
IFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
THURSDAY AS FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOP. 11/32

&&

.MARINE...
EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES HAVE BEEN HOISTED FOR MOST OF THE GULF
COASTAL WATERS BEYOND THE SOUNDS TODAY DUE TO A SWELL TRAIN
RESULTING IN WAVES UP TO 6 FEET. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
IMPROVE FOR MOST OF THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT. IN GENERAL...
LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK...ALTHOUGH THE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE SOMEWHAT
IN ADVANCE OF A STORM SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS COASTAL WATERS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. 11/32

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  74  55  73  57 /  70  10  20  30
BTR  76  58  74  59 /  70  10  20  30
ASD  75  56  74  58 /  70  20  20  30
MSY  76  58  76  60 /  70  20  20  30
GPT  74  57  74  58 /  70  20  20  30
PQL  74  56  73  57 /  70  30  20  30

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE. 

[dkmac]

63F temp and dewpoint this morning with thick fog. The high today will be in the lower 70's with cloudy skies and a 20% chance of rain increasing to 50% chance tonight.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
403 AM CST THU FEB 2 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A 1015MB LOW OVER VIRGINIA WITH AN
ASSOCIATED PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWEST TO NORTH
GEORGIA TO SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI AND WITH THE COLD FRONT FROM THE
LOW TO CENTRAL TENNESSEE TO WEST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI. SURFACE AIR
MASS WAS NEAR OR AT SATURATION SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THIS
MORNING. MANY SITES IN THE FORECAST AREA WERE REPORTING DENSE FOG
AT 3 AM THIS MORNING. PRECIPITABLE WATER PLOTS SHOWED 1.5 INCHES
FROM LCH TO TLH BUT NEAR 1.0 FROM SHV TO JAN. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS
SHOWED A LARGE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER WEST CUBA...SOUTHWEST
FLOW OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...MAINLY WEST FLOW OVER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND PLAINS AND SHARP TROUGH AXIS FROM WEST MONTANA TO NORTH
ARIZONA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
WITH SLIGHT UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT OR PUSH SOUTH...SURFACE FRONT WILL
SAG SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON WITH MOISTURE AXIS SHIFTING SOUTH AND
POOLING ALONG THE BOUNDARY. AS A RESULT...MORE CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY AND OVER FORECAST AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 140
TO 180 PERCENT TODAY AND TONIGHT AND INCREASING UP TO 200 PERCENT
FRIDAY. ATM WILL SHOW SOME EQUIVALENT POTENTIAL TEMPERATURE FALLS
WITH HEIGHT FROM 850 TO 500MB BUT DO THINK MORE SHOWERS WILL OCCUR
THAN THUNDERSTORMS TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. WITH THE SHARP TROUGH
AXIS OUT WEST FINALLY TRACKING EAST AND BECOMING LARGER IN
SCALE...A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE OVER LOUISIANA AND
MISSISSIPPI BY FRIDAY. MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT USUALLY EQUATES
TO A MOIST CLOUDY PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...
...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
CHECKING THE OLD MEMORY AND LAST WEEK ECMWF RUNS INITIALLY HELD
BACK A TROUGH NORTH AND WEST OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI WITH
SOUTHWEST MOIST FLOW FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. HOWEVER...GFS AND ECMWF
BOTH SWITCHED PLACES WITH SOLUTIONS AT TIMES...BUT LATEST RUNS ARE IN
SOME AGREEMENT WITH SOME CLOSED LOW OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI WITH
ASSOCIATED AXIS EXTENDING WEST OVER THE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. WEST
FLOW ON THE SOUTH SIDE WILL ENTRAIN DRY AND TIGHTENED THE MOISTURE
AXIS FROM THE CENTRAL TEXAS COAST ACROSS LOUISIANA TO CENTRAL
TENNESSEE BY SATURDAY. THIS AXIS WILL SAG EAST LATE SATURDAY. AS A
RESULT...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL INCREASE UP TO 1.7 INCHES
ACROSS CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI LATE SATURDAY.
INSTABILITY WILL BE MARGINALLY AND WIND PROFILES WILL REMAIN LESS
CONDUCIVE FOR INTENSE STORMS. HOWEVER...WIND FLOW ALOFT AND SLOW
PROGRESS OF THE MOISTURE FIELD MAY LEAD TO TRAINING OF RAIN AREAS
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY ACROSS THE REGION. SOME UNCERTAINTY EXIST WITH WITH
LOCATIONS OF THE MOISTURE AXIS AND FOR NOW WILL INCREASE
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS UP TO AN INCH IN THE GRIDS OVER THE WEEKEND.
DENSITY OF THE ASSOCIATED WILL SLOWLY PUSH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY. HOWEVER...MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL MAINTAIN A RAIN THREAT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY BUT LOW END
CHANCE WILL REMAIN. DRY CONDITION MAY RETURN BRIEFLY NEXT TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
BOTH CATEGORIES STILL DROPPING AT TERMINALS BUT SHOULD BOTTOM OUT
SOON. EXPECT AT OR NEAR VLIFR CIGS AND/OR VIS AT ALL TERMINALS.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BY MID MORNING WITH FOG LIFTING. HOWEVER...
CIGS LIKELY TO TAKE TILL NOON TO LIFT TO VFR HEIGHTS. RAIN PROBS TOO
LOW FOR PROB30 OR TEMPO...BUT MAY NEED TO ADD. EAST WINDS LIGHT THRU
THE PERIOD. EXPECT A REPEAT TONIGHT.

MEFFER

&&

.MARINE...
PRESSURE PATTERN IS FAIRLY WEAK TODAY WITH UPPER RIDGING STILL
BUILDING OVER THE AREA. SO NO SURPRISE THAT WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. A
SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS THE MID SECTION OF THE
COUNTRY WHICH WILL TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA
BETWEEN THAT FEATURE AND RIDGE TO THE EAST. EXERCISE CAUTION TO
POSSIBLY SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE COASTAL WATERS SUNDAY. THIS WILL
WEAKENING WINDS ALONG THE BOUNDARY. AS THE FRONT DRIFTS OFFSHORE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...15 TO 20 KNOTS NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL
DEVELOP. THOUGH POSSIBLY WEAKENING...EXPECT NORTHEAST WINDS TO
PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

MEFFER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  75  60  72  60 /  30  50  70  50
BTR  79  63  76  63 /  30  50  70  50
ASD  74  61  73  61 /  20  50  60  30
MSY  75  62  74  62 /  20  50  60  40
GPT  72  60  70  62 /  20  50  60  30
PQL  75  59  73  59 /  20  50  60  30

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     ASCENSION...ASSUMPTION...EAST BATON ROUGE...EAST
     FELICIANA...IBERVILLE...LIVINGSTON...LOWER
     JEFFERSON...LOWER LAFOURCHE...LOWER PLAQUEMINES...LOWER ST.
     BERNARD...LOWER TERREBONNE...NORTHERN
     TANGIPAHOA...ORLEANS...POINTE COUPEE...SOUTHERN
     TANGIPAHOA...ST. CHARLES...ST. HELENA...ST. JAMES...ST.
     JOHN THE BAPTIST...ST. TAMMANY...UPPER JEFFERSON...UPPER
     LAFOURCHE...UPPER PLAQUEMINES...UPPER ST. BERNARD...UPPER
     TERREBONNE...WASHINGTON...WEST BATON ROUGE...AND WEST
     FELICIANA.

GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO
     STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT
     FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO
     PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM...LAKE BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN
     AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

MS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     AMITE...HANCOCK...HARRISON...JACKSON...PEARL
     RIVER...PIKE...WALTHALL...AND WILKINSON.

GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO
     STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT
     FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO
     PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM...LAKE BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN
     AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND MISSISSIPPI SOUND. 

[dkmac]

64F temp and dewpoint this morning with light rain falling. We've had nearly 2 inches of rain since Wednesday morning. Today's high will be in the mid 70's with a 60% chance of rain. Weekend looking wet

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
408 AM CST FRI FEB 3 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A 1032MB OVER OHIO VALLEY AND
DEVELOPING INVERTED TROUGH AXIS FROM WEST TEXAS TO CENTRAL KANSAS.
AS A RESULT...EAST WIND FLOW WAS NOTED OVER LOUISIANA AND
MISSISSIPPI AND SURFACE DEWPOINT READINGS WERE 58 TO 63F ACROSS
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA. UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION CONTINUE TO EXPAND REMAIN POSITIVELY
TILTED YIELDING A MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW TEXAS TO THE MID AND LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE IN THE SW FLOW WAS
LOCATED OVER WEST LOUISIANA YIELDING CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL
LOUISIANA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MEANDER EAST OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY
AND TONIGHT BUT LEAVE A BROAD TROUGH AXIS BACK TO THE INTERIOR
ROCKIES. SURFACE LOW WILL REMAIN NEARLY UNDERNEATH THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW. THIS WILL WILL ALLOW DRY AIR TO ENTRAIN ON THE SOUTH SIDE
THIS SYSTEM OR OVER TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA THROUGH TONIGHT AND TO THE
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SATURDAY. AS A RESULT...THE MOISTURE AXIS
AHEAD OF THIS DRY PUNCH WILL POOL FROM FROM TENNESSEE TO SOUTHWEST
MISSISSIPPI TO UPPER TEXAS COAST...ACCORDING TO GFS AND ECMWF. THE
STRONGEST DISTURBANCES WILL REMAIN NORTH ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW. HOWEVER...A FEW EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES WILL YIELD A FEW
ROUNDS OF HEAVY PRECIP AND A FEW STORMS. WIND PROFILES WILL REMAIN
UNIDIRECTIONAL AND ATM WILL REMAIN MARGINALLY UNSTABLE TODAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. THEREFORE...MORE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED MORE THAN
THUNDERSTORMS.

.LONG TERM...
...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SLOWLY ACROSS THE
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH LITTLE SUPPORT
ALOFT...NAM...ECMWF AND GFS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE DENSITY OF A
1035MB HIGH SLIDING SOUTH ON THE PLAINS AND PUSH THE FRONT THROUGH
THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING. WILL SHOW THIS PUSH...BUT MAINTAIN CLOUD
COVER AND RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY AND LINGERING INTO MONDAY. SOME
DRYING MAY OCCUR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT RELUCTANT TO KEEP A
DRY FORECAST AS A BOTH ECMWF AND GFS DEVELOP A CLOSED OVER BAJA
CALIFORNIA WITH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW BACK OVER THE GULF THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
INTERMITTENT SHOWERS HAVE BEEN STEADILY TRACKING ACROSS THE AREA
THIS MORNING AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT MIDDAY. AFTER
THAT THE RAIN SHOULD DWINDLE IN COVERAGE. IFR TO MVFR CEILINGS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITH MVFR CONDITIONS DOMINATING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

MEFFER
&&

.MARINE...
A SURFACE TROUGH IS BEGINNING TO TRACK ACROSS THE MID SECTION OF THE
COUNTRY WHICH WILL TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA
BETWEEN THAT FEATURE AND RIDGE TO THE EAST. EXERCISE CAUTION TO HAVE
DEVELOPED OVER COASTAL WATERS BUT NOT TIDAL LAKES SO HAVE THAT
HEADLINE IN THE ZONES. THOSE CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH
THE NIGHT BUT WEAKEN TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS IS B/C
MODELS NOW SUGGESTING COLD FRONT TO BE APPROACHING THE COASTAL
WATERS A DAY SOONER...SATURDAY. THIS WILL WEAKENING WINDS AHEAD OF
THE BOUNDARY. AS THE FRONT TRACKS OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...15 TO 20 KNOTS NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP. THOUGH
POSSIBLY WEAKENING...EXPECT NORTHEAST WINDS TO PERSIST INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

MEFFER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  72  60  73  53 /  80  40  70  60
BTR  77  63  78  58 /  60  20  60  60
ASD  73  61  75  58 /  60  20  40  40
MSY  75  62  75  58 /  50  20  40  40
GPT  70  61  72  56 /  70  20  30  40
PQL  71  58  74  57 /  70  30  30  40

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE. 

[dkmac]

67F temp and dewpoint this morning under cloudy skies. The high today will be in the mid 70's with a 40% chance of rain, then rain chances increasing to 60% tonight. Cooler weather coming Monday.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
415 AM CST SAT FEB 4 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A 1013MB LOW OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
MISSOURI WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING SOUTH TO SOUTH TEXAS.
SURFACE FLOW HAS BECOME MORE SOUTHEAST OVER LOUISIANA AND
MISSISSIPPI WITH DEWPOINT READINGS NEAR OR GREATER THAN 65F OVER
THE FORECAST AREA. FRIDAY NIGHT LOCAL SOUNDING HAD A CAPE VALUE
600 J/KG AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE NEAR 1.3 INCHES. 0-3KM SRH
WAS NEAR 140 M/S. UPPER LEVEL LOW REVEALED THE LARGE CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION OVER CENTRAL ROCKIES AND CENTRAL PLAINS. ISOTACH
ANALYSIS AT 250MB SHOWED A 100 KNOT JET MAX ON THE SOUTH SIDE OR
OVER TEXAS PANHANDLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL TRACK EAST WITH THE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING
WEST TO UTAH. RIDGE AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL DAMPENED AND WAVELENGTH
BECOMES LESS NOTICEABLE THROUGH TONIGHT. WIND PROFILES WILL START
OUT WITH SOME VEERING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BUT WEAKENED
OVERNIGHT. SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK EAST WITH THE FRONTAL FRONT
PUSHING INTO THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. JET MAX WILL LIFT EAST AS
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES EAST OVER MISSOURI THROUGH TONIGHT. DRY
AIR ENTRAINMENT ON THE SIDE SOUTH OF THE LOW WILL PUSH THE
MOISTURE AXIS EAST TONIGHT. GFS AND ECMWF BOTH HAVE SLOWED THE
EAST PROGRESSION WITH THE MOISTURE AXIS APPROACHING NORTHWEST
FORECAST AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. AS A
RESULT...WILL CONFINE THE HIGHER RAIN CHANCES TO THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING. FORCING ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT AND IN THE
MOISTURE AXIS WILL YIELD CONVECTION ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY IN A LINE. AS A RESULT...WIND THREAT WILL BE THE MAIN
EVENT WITH CONVECTION TONIGHT. IN ADDITION...TRAINING OF STORMS
WITHIN THE LINE MAY OCCUR AND LOCALIZED FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.
FRONTAL PUSH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WILL MAINTAIN MOISTURE BEHIND THE FRONT AND MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF
RAIN SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.


.LONG TERM...
...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL OPEN AND DRIFT EAST...CREATING A WEST FLOW
OVER CENTRAL GULF MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. ASSOCIATED SURFACE HIGH
WILL DRIFT SOUTH MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW A
LOW MEANDERING OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES MONDAY AND TUESDAY THEN
TRACKING EAST. WITH A WEST FLOW ALOFT AND RIDGE REMAIN WEST OF THE
REGION...DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN LIMITED MONDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. A BROAD TROUGH DEVELOPING FROM HUDSON TO EAST
CONUS WILL KEEP HEIGHTS SLIGHT LOWER AND KEEP TEMPS NEAR NORMAL
FOR NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...

A LOW STRATUS DECK WILL LINGER THROUGH AROUND 15-16Z THIS
MORNING...RESULTING IN CONTINUED LIFR AND IFR CONDITIONS AT ALL OF
THE TERMINALS.  FOG WILL NOT BE A MAJOR CONCERN DUE TO THE STRONG
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS AND OVERALL BUOYANT ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE IN
ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AFTER 16Z...WITH CEILINGS INCREASING INTO
THE 2000-3000 FOOT RANGE.  CONDITIONS WILL DEGRADE TONIGHT...AS THE
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.  A BAND OF CONVECTION SHOULD
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AS IT MOVES INTO THE AREA.  ADDITIONALLY...LOW
STRATUS WILL DEVELOP IN PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT...RESULTING IN
ANOTHER ROUND OF IFR AND LIFR RESTRICTIONS.  THESE RESTRICTIONS
SHOULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP AROUND 05-06Z AND CONTINUE THROUGH 12Z. 32

&&

.MARINE...

WINDS WILL WEAKEN SOME TODAY IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...BUT SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED...WITH 4 TO 5 FOOT SEAS
EXPECTED IN THE OUTER WATERS BEYOND 20NM.  WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE
TOWARD DAYBREAK ON SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE LAKES AND SOUNDS AS
DRIER AND COLDER AIR FINALLY ADVECTS INTO THE REGION.  THIS DRIER
AND COLDER AIRMASS WILL ALLOW STRONGER WINDS FROM ALOFT TO MIX DOWN
OVER THE WARMER WATERS IN THE MARINE ZONES.  WINDS WILL PEAK SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY...WITH NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE OVER THE OUTER GULF WATERS.  OTHERWISE...EXERCISE CAUTION
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.  AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...THE GRADIENT FLOW ALOFT WILL WEAKEN...ALLOWING WINDS OVER
THE MARINE ZONES TO FALL INTO THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE.  THIS WILL
DROP SEAS INTO THE 2 TO 4 FOOT RANGE.  HOWEVER...A GULF LOW IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY OVER THE
SOUTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO.  THIS LOW WILL TRACK THROUGH THE NORTHERN
GULF WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...ALLOWING FOR AN INCREASE IN
WINDS AND SEAS DURING THIS TIME FRAME.  SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THIS LOW TRACKS THROUGH. 32

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  75  52  62  40 /  60  70  20  20
BTR  78  53  65  45 /  60  60  20  20
ASD  74  58  68  46 /  40  60  30  20
MSY  75  58  68  48 /  40  60  30  20
GPT  72  56  68  49 /  40  60  30  20
PQL  73  57  68  47 /  40  60  30  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE. 

[dkmac]

58F temp and dewpoint this morning under partly cloudy skies. The frontal passage yesterday dropped over 1/2 inch of rain in about 1/2 an hour. Todays high will be in the mid 60's with partly cloudy skies and a 20% chance of rain. Cooler temps for the next few days.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
414 AM CST SUN FEB 5 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A 1014MB OVER WEST VIRGINA WITH THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH TO MOBILE BAY TO SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA COASTAL WATERS AND A 1033MB HIGH OVER WEST COLORADO. LIGHT NORTH
FLOW WAS PRESENT OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER...DEWPOINTS READINGS WERE STILL IN THE UPPER 50S BUT LOWER
VALUES TO THE NORTH. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWED THE CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION OVER NORTH MISSOURI AND ANOTHER BROAD LOW OVER UTAH.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SURFACE HIGH OVER COLORADO WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST OVER RED RIVER
VALLEY BY MONDAY AND SHIFT EAST OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BY
TUESDAY. BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MEANDER OVER THE INTERIOR
ROCKIES THROUGH TUESDAY. WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE FROM TEXAS TO GEORGIA. AN EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE OVER SOUTH
TEXAS WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY. AS A RESULT...A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF RAIN WILL EXIST AND PLACED IN THE FORECAST TODAY THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. SLOW DRYING OF THE LOWER ATM OVER THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DEVELOP
OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA AND ALLOW THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW TO BECOME
MORE SOUTHWEST OVER WEST AND NORTH CENTRAL GULF. GFS DEVELOPS A
SURFACE LOW OVER THE CENTRAL GULF WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ECMWF DOES NOT
SHOW A LOW. HOWEVER...GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW INCREASE IN MEAN
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ACROSS THE EXTREME NORTH CENTRAL GULF
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...THUS WILL MAINTAIN
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS SOUTH ZONES DURING THIS PERIOD. UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER HUDSON TO CENTRAL PLAINS WILL ROTATE SOUTHEAST
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. MOISTURE IN PLACE WILL POOL ALONG THIS
APPROACHING TROUGH AXIS AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY...ONLY
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL EXIST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...

A LOW STRATUS DECK WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH AROUND 14-15Z THIS
MORNING.  CEILINGS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 500 FOOT RANGE THIS
MORNING...RESULTING IN IFR RESTRICTIONS AT AREA TERMINALS AT A
MINIMUM.  CEILINGS MAY FALL INTO LIFR RANGE FOR A BRIEF PERIOD
AROUND 12Z.  THE LOW STRATUS DECK WILL BEGIN TO LIFT AFTER
15Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING BY 18Z AT ALL TERMINALS.  SOME
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA...BUT THERE WILL NO BE
IMPACT TO AVIATION OPERATIONS WITH THIS ELEVATED CEILING RUNNING
ABOVE 10K FEET. 32

&&

.MARINE...

NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TODAY...AS SOME SOME DRIER
AND COOLER AIR BEGINS TO ADVECT INTO THE AREA.  WINDS WILL INCREASE
INTO THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON AND REMAIN ELEVATED
THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING.  SEAS WILL RESPOND...AND WILL INCREASE TO
AROUND 6 FEET OVER THE OUTER WATERS LATE TONIGHT.  OVERALL...EXPECT
CONDITIONS REMAIN IN EXERCISE CAUTION RANGE...AND NOT MOVE INTO
ADVISORY RANGE DUE TO WEAKER BOUNDARY LAYER GRADIENT FLOW.  AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND TOMORROW
NIGHT...WINDS WILL BEGIN TO FALL BACK TO AROUND 10 KNOTS.  SEAS
WILLA ALSO FALL INTO THE 2 TO 3 FOOT RANGE.  UNFORTUNATELY...ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE WILL SLIDE INTO THE PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.  STRONG UPPER LEVEL LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE
WILL INDUCE THE FORMATION OF A SURFACE LOW OVER THE COASTAL BEND OF
TEXAS ON WEDNESDAY IN A REGION OF HIGHER BAROCLINCITY.  THE LOW WILL
QUICKLY RACE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY.   AS THE LOW INTENSIFIES...NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE
ABOVE 20 KNOTS AND SEAS WILL RISE TO AROUND 8 TO 9 FEET BY THURSDAY
MORNING.  ADVISORY FLAGS WILL NEED TO RAISED MID-WEEK FOR THIS
SYSTEM.  CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BY FRIDAY AS THE LOW PULLS INTO THE
ATLANTIC.  32

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  62  41  60  39 /  10  10  10  10
BTR  65  46  64  42 /  20  10  10  10
ASD  68  47  64  45 /  20  20  10  10
MSY  68  47  64  45 /  20  20  10  10
GPT  68  50  64  47 /  20  20  10  10
PQL  68  48  64  45 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE. 

[dkmac]

49F temp and 43F dewpoint this morning. The high today will be in the mid 60's with partly cloudy skies. Arctic front next week?

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
334 AM CST MON FEB 6 2012

.SHORT TERM...QUIET NIGHT AS MOST PRECIP DISSIPATED WELL BEFORE
MIDNIGHT. ONLY LGT SPRINKLES WERE NOTED OVER THE SRN HALF OF THE CWA
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HRS.

TODAY THROUGH WED...PROBABLY THE MOST DIFFICULT PART OF THIS FCST
WILL BE CLOUD COVER. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC IS ALREADY MOVING IN
PLACE AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA ONLY TO BE RE-ENFORCED BY THE
TIME WE HEAD INTO THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. THE MAIN ISSUE
WILL BE THE LOCATION OF THE SUB-TROPICAL JET AS THIS COULD LEAD TO
EXTENSIVE HIGH CLOUDS POURING OVER THE REGION. IF THE JET IS
DISPLACED A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH THEN WE COULD BE MOSTLY VOID OF THE
HIGHER CLOUDS. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THE JET WILL BE RIGHT OVER OR
CLOSE ENOUGH TO KEEP MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE FCST. THIS ALONG
WITH COOLER LL TEMPS WILL KEEP THE AREA CLOSER TO NORMAL IN REGARDS
TO TEMPS.

AS FOR RAIN CHANCES...THESE WILL BE ON THE VERY LOW END AND MOST
PLACES WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME. THAT SAID WE
WILL REMAIN UNDER MOSTLY SW TO WSW FLOW AND SUBTLE IMPULSES WILL
WORK THROUGH THE REGION SO WE CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT LGT RAIN
ESPECIALLY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.

.LONG TERM...IT APPEARS THE MEDIUM RANGE MDLS MAY BE CATCHING ONTO A
COOLER TREND HEADING INTO THIS WEEKEND. 12Z EURO WAS FOLLOWED UP
NICELY BY THE 00Z EURO WHILE THE 00Z OP GFS RUN HAS TRENDED COOLER
AGAIN. THIS IS SUPPORTED NICELY BY THE GFES SO HAVE MADE SOME
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE TEMPS FOR FOR SAT AND SUN AND IF THE
TREND CONTINUES THEN CURRENT FCST IS TOO WARM AND WILL NEED TO BE
LOWERED MORE.

WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI...THIS WILL MOSTLY BE QUIET BUT WE WILL SEE A
RE-ENFORCING COLD FRONT PUSH INTO THE REGION WED AFTN/EVN AND THIS
HELP DROP LL TEMPS ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO POSSIBLY LEADING TO TEMPS
DROPPING SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FINALLY. MOISTURE HAVING BEEN
DISPLACED INTO THE GULF WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES SLIM BUT THERE MAY BE
ENOUGH OF AN INCREASE IN FORCING AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE S/W
AND ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT TO SQUEEZE OUT A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF
RAIN...NO THUNDER IS IN THE FCST.

THIS WEEKEND...THANKS TO SOME EMAIL TRAFFIC FROM A FEW COLLEAGUES
AND A LOCAL GLOBAL PATTERN ANALYSIS...A SIGNAL HAS APPEARED IN THE
ANALYSIS INDICATING THAT WE MAY BE DUE FOR A LITTLE SHOT OF ARCTIC
AIR FINALLY. THE GLOBAL MDLS MAY EVEN BE CATCHING ON AS WELL AS BOTH
THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE SHIFTED SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER THAN 36 HRS AGO.
A SIGNIFICANT PIECE OF ENERGY WILL WORK SOUTH OUT OF CANADA AND AS
THE UPPER LOW IN THE SRN BRANCH OVER THE BAJA WORKS WEST OVER OLD
MEXICO FRI THE TWO BRANCHES MAY MERGE AND ALLOW ENOUGH OF THE COLD
AIRMASS TO SPILL SOUTH ALL THE WAY TO THE GULF PROVIDING US WITH
WHAT COULD BE 15 DEGREES OR MORE BELOW NORMAL. MDLS ARE INDICATING
H925 TEMPS POSSIBLY DROPPING TO -5C AND THIS WOULD ONLY TRANSLATE TO
AROUND 38 TO 45 FOR OUR REGION. NOT QUITE READY TO MAKE THAT MUCH OF
A CHANGE BUT HAVE GONE A GOOD BIT COOLER WITH SAT THROUGH SUN NOW.
H85 TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT 1.5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL BUT
PERSONALLY WE WOULD LIKE TO SEE 2 OR MORE WHICH WOULD REALLY
INDICATE AN ARCTIC LIKE AIRMASS. WILL NEED TO WATCH CLOSELY AND IF
TREND CONTINUES WE WILL NEED TO MAKE FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS DOWN FOR
BOTH HIGHS AND LOWS. /CAB/

&&

.AVIATION...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED AT AREA TERMINALS
TODAY...AS DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION.  THERE WILL CONTINUE
TO BE A SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID-LEVEL CLOUD DECK RUNNING BETWEEN 10K
AND 12K FEET...BUT THIS WILL NOT LEAD TO ANY RESTRICTIONS.
OVERALL...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO BE THE RULE. 32

&&

.MARINE...INCREASED GRADIENT FLOW TONIGHT HAS LED TO SOME BORDERLINE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
OPEN GULF WATERS.  HOWEVER...THE GRADIENT FLOW WILL WEAKEN
DRAMATICALLY THROUGH THE DAY...AS A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES OVER THE AREA.  A GENERALLY NORTHEAST FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS
WILL BE THE RULE OVER THE OPEN GULF WATERS...WITH LIGHTER FLOW OF 5
TO 10 KNOTS OVER THE SOUNDS AND LAKES BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON AND
PERSISTING INTO TUESDAY.  ON WEDNESDAY...CONDITIONS WILL WORSEN AS A
COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA...AND A GULF LOW BEGINS TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE TEXAS COAST.  THIS LOW WILL PULL THROUGH THE
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.  AN
INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WILL RESULT IN SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
PERSISTING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.  CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE
ON FRIDAY AS THE LOW WEAKENS...WITH WINDS DROPPING BELOW 15 KNOTS
OVER THE OUTER WATERS.  HOWEVER...A REINFORCING FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL SWING THROUGH ON SATURDAY...PUSHING
WINDS BACK UP TO NEAR 20 KNOTS OVER THE OUTER WATERS.  THESE
STRONGER WINDS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE INTO SUNDAY. 32


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  60  41  62  42 /   0  10  10  10
BTR  62  44  65  46 /  10  10  10  10
ASD  64  43  67  44 /  10  10  10  10
MSY  60  47  65  48 /  10  10  10  10
GPT  64  44  67  45 /  10  10  10  10
PQL  66  42  69  43 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE. 

[dkmac]

45F temp and 43F dewpoint this morning under clear skies. The high today will be in the lower 70's under partly cloudy skies and a 10% chance of rain.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
400 AM CST TUE FEB 7 2012

.SHORT TERM...QUIET FCST IN THE SHORT TERM WITH A COLD FRONT
EXPECTED DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. ACTIVE SRN BRANCH IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE ENTIRE FCST BUT THE LACK OF A
SFC REFLECTION WILL KEEP THINGS MOSTLY QUIET OVER OUR AREA.

TODAY THROUGH THU...MAIN FCST ISSUES ARE CLOUDS AND ITS INFLUENCE ON
TEMPS AND THEN THE COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. EVEN WITH A RE-ENFORCING
FRONT COMING DOWN THE OVERALL LACK OF MOISTURE WILL SEVERELY HURT
RAIN CHANCES. THE SUBTROPICAL JET WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TODAY
AND TONIGHT BEFORE FINALLY EMERGING WITH THE NRN BRANCH ON
WEDNESDAY. THIS SHOULD KEEP A HEALTHY DOSE OF HIGH CLOUDS AGAIN
TODAY AND TONIGHT. IN FACT HIGH CLOUDS CAN BE SEEN QUICKLY STREAMING
NE FROM OLD MEXICO AND ACROSS THE WRN GULF. THIS ALONG WITH H925
TEMPS NEAR 10C SHOULD HELP KEEP HIGHS IN THE MID 60S ONCE AGAIN.

COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY BACK IN THE CNTRL PLAINS AND PUSHING INTO
THE MID MS VALLEY. A STRONG S/W COMING OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND
THROUGH THE PLAINS WILL HELP PUSH THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWA
TOMORROW AND THROUGH THE REGION EARLY POSSIBLY LATE MORNING. THIS
WILL COOL LL TEMPS A FEW DEGREES SO HIGHS WILL BE A TAD COOLER THAN
TODAYS WITH TEMPS RISING QUITE SLOWLY THROUGH THE DAY. H95 TEMPS
WILL CONTINUE TO DROP ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO OVERNIGHT AND THU HIGHS
WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN WED.

AS FOR RAIN CHANCES...THE BEST CHANCE LOOKS TO BE ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS THU. THIS IS WHERE THE BEST MOISTURE WILL BE LOCATED ALONG
WITH THE REGION RETURNING TO SWRLY FLOW AND THE SUBTROPICAL JET
MOVING BACK OVER THE REGION. OVERALL LOOK FOR CLOUDS TO RETURN LATE
THU.

.LONG TERM...THE MEDIUM RANGE MDLS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE
HANDLING OFF ALL OF THE SRN STREAM ENERGY AND THE LARGE POLAR LOW
OVER COMING OUT OF THE HUDSON BAY. ANOTHER CANADIAN AIRMASS LOOKS TO
SIDE-SWIPE THE CWA BUT THIS WILL AT LEAST HAVE ENOUGH OF AN EFFECT
TO KEEP THINGS AT OR JUST BELOW NORMAL. LETS JUST SAY CONFIDENCE IN
THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FCST IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

UPPER LOW DEVELOPS JUST WEST OF THE BAJA THU AND SLIDES TO THE
SOUTH SOME ON FRI WHILE THE POLAR LOW SPINS JUST EAST OF THE HUDSON
BAY. THE SUBTROPICAL JET WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE NRN GULF AND SERN
CONUS THROUGH FRI NIGHT WHILE THE NRN BRANCH WILL DIVE SOUTH ACROSS
CNTRL CANADA AND THROUGH THE NRN AND CNTRL PLAINS STATES. THE TWO
WILL MERGE OVER THE SERN CONUS ON SAT. HOW FAR SOUTH THEY MERGE WILL
DICTATE HOW DEEP THE CANADIAN AIRMASS PUSHES SOUTH. RIGHT NOW IT
LOOKS LIKE THE UPPER LOW NEAR THE BAJA WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND BEFORE OPENING UP AND MERGING WITH THE NRN BRANCH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THIS KEEPS THE MID LVL FLOW OVER THE REGION ZONAL AT
BEST AND THIS IS NOT THE OPTIMAL SETUP TO GET THE AIRMASS TO PLUNGE
SOUTH INTO THE GULF. THERE IS STILL A RATHER LARGE SPREAD WITH HOW
THE MDLS ARE HANDLING THE BAJA AND HUDSON BAY LOW SO WILL JUST STICK
CLOSE TO THE LATEST MEX GUI. AS FOR RAIN CHANCES AND A SLGT CHANCE
FOR LGT RAIN IS THE PROBABLY THE MOST WE CAN EXPECT AS MOISTURE
REMAINS RATHER LOW AND NO REAL FOCUSED SUPPORT MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION. RAIN CHANCES MAY INCREASE NEXT WEEK AS OUR OLD BAJA LOW
OPENS UP AND MOVES THROUGH THE REGION MON/TUE PROVIDING FAR BETTER
FORCING ALOFT. /CAB/

&&

.AVIATION...NO MAJOR IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED AT AREA TERMINALS THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD...AS A DRY AND STABLE LOW LEVEL AIRMASS REMAINS
IN PLACE.  A CLOUD DECK RUNNING BETWEEN 20-25K FEET WILL CONTINUE...
BUT THIS WILL NOT HAVE A MAJOR IMPACT ON TERMINAL OPS. /32/

&&

.MARINE...AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A HIGH OVER THE
SOUTHEAST AND A LOW FORMING IN THE SOUTHWEST GULF WILL RESULT IN
STRONGER NORTHEAST WINDS AND INCREASING SEAS BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT
AND CONTINUING THROUGH THURSDAY.  OVERALL...EXPECT A RETURN TO
EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS OVER THE OPEN GULF WATERS DURING THIS
PERIOD.  CURRENTLY...GUIDANCE SHOWS THE GRADIENT FLOW REMAINING
BELOW SCA CRITERIA.  HOWEVER...IF THE LOW GAINS MORE
STRENGTH...OVERALL GRADIENT FLOW COULD BE PUSHED OVER 20 KNOTS.
SEAS WILL CORRESPONDINGLY INCREASE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH
SEAS OF UP TO 6 FEET EXPECTED OVER THE OUTER GULF WATERS.  AS THE
LOW SHEARS OUT OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF ON FRIDAY...GRADIENT FLOW WILL
ONCE AGAIN FALL BELOW 15 KNOTS AND SEAS WILL DROP TO AROUND 4 FEET
OVER THE OUTER GULF WATERS FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. /32/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  65  42  63  37 /  10  10   0  10
BTR  67  47  66  42 /  10  10   0  10
ASD  68  43  67  40 /   0  10  10  10
MSY  65  48  66  46 /   0  10  10  10
GPT  67  45  66  41 /   0  10  10  10
PQL  69  43  69  38 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE. 

[dkmac]

54F temp and 43F dewpoint this morning with cloudy skies. Today's high will be in the upper 60's under partly cloudy skies. Cold front coming for the weekend.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
358 AM CST WED FEB 8 2012

.SHORT TERM...ITS BEEN A QUIET...MOSTLY CLOUDY NIGHT WITH WINDS
REMAINING AROUND 5-7KTS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS HAS
HELPED KEEP TEMPS A TAD WARMER THIS MORNING WITH MOST OF THE CWA
REMAINING IN THE 50S.

TODAY THROUGH FRI...THIS PERIOD WILL REMAIN RATHER QUIET...COOL...
AND DRY. THE COLD FRONT IS SOMEWHAT HARD TO ANALYZE AS THERE REALLY
ISNT MUCH OF A WIND SHIFT BUT AT 8Z APPEARED TO BE LOCATED FROM NEAR
THE BOOT-HEEL OF MO THEN BACK TO THE SW NORTH OF KTXK AND THEN DOWN
TO NEAR KATT. THIS FRONT IS PROGRESSING NICELY AND SHOULD MOVE INTO
THE CWA BY SUNRISE AND WILL CONTINUE TO WORK SE THROUGH THE REGION
AND INTO THE GULF WELL BEFORE MIDDAY. THE ONLY THING YOU MAY NOTICED
WOULD BE A SLGT INCREASE IN WINDS FROM THE NORTH. THE FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO WORK INTO THE GULF AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN OVER THE
SERN CONUS. IN THE MID LVLS WE WILL REMAIN IN MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW WITH
THE SUBTROPICAL JET REESTABLISHING ITSELF OVER THE SERN CONUS LATE
THU AND MORE SO ON FRI. THIS SHOULD BRING THE HIGH CLOUDS BACK INTO
THE REGION THU AFTN AND THROUGH FRI.

.LONG TERM...THE HIGHLY ACTIVE PATTERN WE ARE IN CONTINUES TO CAUSE
SOME ISSUES WITH THE MDLS. OVERALL CONTINUITY BETWEEN THE MDLS IS
NOT TOO BAD WITH THE MAIN ISSUES BEING TIMING. THAT SAID CONSISTENCY
WITHIN THE MDLS LEAVES A LOT TO BE DESIRED. IT DOES APPEAR THAT
THE COLD FRONT WILL MAKE IT THROUGH THE REGION AND THE MDLS HAVE
COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH AT LEAST A GLANCING BLOW FROM THE
CANADIAN AIRMASS. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THIS(ECMWF IS COLDER)
AND THEY BOTH INDICATE A SYSTEM EARLY/MID NEXT WEEK.

SIGNIFICANT ENERGY ALONG THE BACKSIDE OF THE POLAR LOW NEAR THE
HUDSON BAY WILL HEAD SOUTH THROUGH CANADA AND INTO THE CNTRL CONUS
BY SAT AFTN. AT THE SAME TIME THE LOW OVER THE BAJA WILL OPEN UP AND
LIFT OUT...QUESTION IS HOW FAST. THE NRN BRANCH ENERGY BEING THE
DOMINANT FEATURE WILL ACTUALLY ALLOW THE MID LVLS TO BECOME A LITTLE
MORE NWRLY ON SAT AND SAT NIGHT WHICH WOULD BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR
THE CANADIAN AIRMASS TO WORK TOWARDS THE GULF AND IN FACT THE MDLS
ARE SHOWING THIS NOW WITH H925 TEMPS DROPPING TO NEAR 0C BY SAT EVN.
THE MDLS HAVE BEEN ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH HOW FAR SOUTH THIS
AIRMASS WILL GO THE LAST FEW DAYS SO WE WILL JUST STICK WITH THE
LATEST MEX GUI. THIS IS COLDER THAN THE PREV FCST AND IN SOME
LOCATIONS SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER FOR SUN AND SUN NIGHT. MOISTURE WILL
STILL BE FAIRLY LIMITED BUT WITH THE FORCING FROM THE FRONT WE MAY
BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE OUT A FEW HUNDREDTHS SAT.

A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY LIES AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK. THE BIG
QUESTION IS THE ENERGY FROM THE OLD BAJA LOW. AS IT MOVES INTO THE
TX WHEN WILL IT MERGE WITH THE NRN BRANCH. IF IT IS FASTER AND
PUSHES MORE EAST THAN NE IT COULD MERGE WITH THE NRN BRANCH AS EARLY
SAT AFTN AND THIS WILL KEEP THE REGION MOSTLY QUIET UNTIL ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE OUT OF THE PAC NW MOVES ACROSS THE WRN CONUS DURING THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. IF THE UPPER LOW IS SLOWER IT WILL
MERGE WITH A WEAKER DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS ON MON
AND COULD BRING ENOUGH LIFT TO ALLOW SHRA TO DEVELOP OVER THE
REGION. HAVE KEPT THE RAIN CHANCES IN THE FCST FOR MON THROUGH WED
BUT IN ALL LIKELIHOOD ONE OR EVEN TWO OF THOSE DAYS WILL BE DRY JUST
NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO SHOW ANY PARTICULAR DAY AT THIS TIME. /CAB/

&&

.AVIATION...DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT INTO THE AREA IN THE LOW
LEVELS...ALLOWING FOR CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL AREA
TERMINALS.  THERE IS SOME MID-LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE...THAT WILL
ALLOW FOR A BROKEN CLOUD DECK TO LINGER AROUND 8000 FEET...BUT THIS
WILL NOT IMPACT AVIATION OPERATIONS.  32

&&

.MARINE...AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A HIGH OVER THE
SOUTHEAST AND A LOW FORMING IN THE SOUTHWEST GULF WILL RESULT IN
STRONGER NORTHEAST WINDS AND INCREASING SEAS THROUGH TOMORROW.
OVERALL...EXPECT A RETURN TO EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS OVER THE
OPEN GULF WATERS DURING THIS PERIOD.  SEAS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW...WITH SEAS OF UP TO 6 FEET EXPECTED OVER THE OUTER GULF
WATERS.  THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PUSH INTO FLORIDA ON
FRIDAY...LEADING TO WEAKER GRADIENT FLOW ACROSS THE AREA AND
IMPROVING SEAS.  OVER THE WEEKEND...A STRONG REINFORCING COLD FRONT
WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS.   A MUCH COLDER AND DRIER
AIRMASS WILL ADVECT OVER THE WARMER COASTAL WATERS...ALLOWING
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS IN EXCESS OF 25 KNOTS TO MIX TO THE SURFACE.
AS A RESULT...EXPECT SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS TO BE IN PLACE SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY. 32

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  62  37  59  37 /   0  10  10  10
BTR  65  42  63  43 /   0  10  10  10
ASD  67  40  63  39 /   0  10  10  10
MSY  65  47  62  45 /   0  10  10  10
GPT  65  41  62  40 /   0  10  10  10
PQL  68  39  63  35 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE. 

[dkmac]

44F temp and 40F dewpoint this morning under clear skies. The high today will be in the lower 60's with partly cloudy skies. Short-lived cool front this weekend, with showers expected on Friday.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
348 AM CST THU FEB 9 2012

.SHORT TERM...AS EXPECTED THERE HAS BEEN DECENT COVERAGE OF HIGH
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC KEEPING THINGS RATHER
QUIET. WINDS OVER MOST LAND AREAS HAVE BEEN LGT BUT ALONG THE
SOUTHSHORE IT HAS BEEN A LITTLE BREEZY BUT THIS SHOULD CHANGE OVER
THE NEXT FEW HRS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS A LITTLE MORE.

TODAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WSW FLOW AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
OVER THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT BUT NOW THE MDLS ARE GRABBING ONTO
A WEAK S/W THAT CAME OUT OF THE PAC NW YESTERDAY AND IS CURRENTLY
MOVING ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. THIS S/W WILL MOVE INTO THE
LOWER MS VALLEY AHEAD OF THE SIGNIFICANT PIECE OF ENERGY THAT IS
EXPECTED TO COME OUT OF CNTRL CANADA FRI NIGHT AND OUR COLD FRONT.
MOISTURE FRI AND FRI NIGHT WILL NOT BE GREAT BUT PWS ARE EXPECTED
RIGHT AROUND 1 INCH WHICH IS SOMEWHERE B/T 120-140% OF NORMAL SO
THIS COULD BE SUFFICIENT. AS THE S/W MOVES THROUGH TOMORROW AFTN/EVN
HGHTS WILL DROP SOME 5-6DM THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND THIS COULD PROVIDE
MORE THAN ENOUGH FORCING TO SQUEEZE OUT LGT TO MODERATE SHRA. IN
FACT THE MDLS HAVE COME MORE IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF AND ARE MORE
BULLISH ON RAIN CHANCES NOW FOR FRI. SO HAVE MADE SIGNIFICANT
INCREASES IN THE POPS FOR FRI WITH RAIN MOST LIKELY OCCURRING B/T
18Z FRI AND 06Z SAT.

AS FOR OUR COLD FRONT IT WILL MOVE THROUGH OVERNIGHT FRI AND WE WILL
MOVE UNDER NW FLOW. THIS SHOULD HELP TO DRIVE THE CANADIAN AIRMASS
WELL INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND EVENTUALLY SERN CONUS. EVEN THOUGH
THIS IS A CANADIAN AIRMASS IT WILL BE SHORT LIVED ALONG WITH NOT
QUITE AS COLD AS YOU WOULD EXPECT GIVEN ITS ORIGINATION. PART OF THE
PROBLEM IS IT WILL BE TRAVELING OVER VERY LITTLE SNOW PACK ACROSS
THE CNTRL CONUS AND THIS WILL ALLOW IT TO MODERATE SOME. IN ADDITION
S/W RIDGING BEHIND FRI/S S/W WILL OCCUR QUICKLY AND MOVE ACROSS THE
THE MS VALLEY SUN/SUN NIGHT. THIS WILL HELP LL TEMPS MODERATE. THIRD
THE BULK OF THE COLD AIR WILL REMAIN OFF TO OUR NORTH AND EAST AS WE
GET MORE OF A GLANCING BLOW. NOW THAT ALL SAID WE WILL STILL SEE A
PRETTY GOOD COOL DOWN AS H925 TEMPS COULD ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO
AROUND 0 TO -2C BY SAT EVN. THAT ALONG WITH CLEARING SKIES AND
WEAKENING WINDS WILL LEAD TO A LGT TO MODERATE FREEZE ACROSS THE
NRN HALF OF THE CWA AND SOME OF THE COLDEST TEMPS WE WILL HAVE
SEEN IN APPROXIMATELY A MONTH NOW.

.LONG TERM...MEDIUM RANGE MDLS ARE IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
NEXT WEEKS FCST. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THE REGION BEING IMPACTED
BY TWO DIFFERENT SYSTEMS WITH THE FIRST LATE MON AND THE SECOND
AROUND THE 2ND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.

OUR UPPER LOW OVER THE BAJA WILL OPEN UP LATE SAT/SUN AND MOVE TO
THE NE AND INTO TX SUN/SUN NIGHT. THIS WILL MERGE WITH ANOTHER S/W
THAT WILL COME OUR OF THE PAC ON SAT. THIS S/W WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
LOWER AND MID MS VALLEY LATE MON/MON NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER
SHOT OF LGT TO MODERATE SHRA TO THE REGION. THERE MAY EVEN BE A FEW
EMBEDDED TSRA ACROSS THE COASTAL AREAS WHERE THERE WILL BE JUST
ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH. IT LOOKS LIKE TUE AND MUCH OF WED
WE WILL BE IN B/T SYSTEMS. THE UPPER PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACTIVE
WITH ANOTHER PAC SYSTEM EXPECTED TO MOVE ONSHORE TUE NIGHT AND
INTO THE SRN PLAINS BY WED NIGHT. A DEVELOPING SFC LOW ALONG WITH
THE S/W WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MS VALLEY THU AND THIS COULD BRING
MORE NUMEROUS SHRA AND TSRA THIS TIME. THERE COULD EVEN BE A FEW
STRONG TO SVR STORMS WITH THIS SYSTEM SO WE WILL NEED TO KEEP
WATCHING AS THE MDLS GET A BETTER GRASP OF IT.

AS FOR TEMPS WE WILL QUICKLY MODERATE MON WITH H925 TEMPS INCREASING
ABOUT 8-10 DEGREES FROM 00Z MON TO 00Z TUE. TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE
BACK ABV NORMAL BY TUE AND LOOK TO REMAIN THIS WAY THROUGH THU. /CAB/

&&

.AVIATION...HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE
AREA FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LOWER LEVELS WILL REMAIN DRY UNTIL THE
DAYTIME HOURS ON FRIDAY...WHEN MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE
APPROACH OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE. EXPECT CIRRUS TO LOWER INTO MIDLEVEL
DECK BY MIDDAY ON FRIDAY. THIS IS BEYOND THE CURRENT FORECAST
PERIOD. /35/

&&

.MARINE...REINFORCEMENT OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO NORTHEAST
WINDS NEAR 15 KNOTS...FALLING BACK TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON
BEFORE INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
AS THE NEXT REINFORCEMENT OF HIGH PRESSURE AND COOLER AIR OCCURS.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ABOVE 20 KNOTS OVER PORTIONS OF THE
OPEN WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. /35/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  56  40  56  37 /   0  10  50  30
BTR  61  45  61  41 /   0  10  60  30
ASD  61  41  64  40 /   0  10  40  40
MSY  59  45  64  43 /   0  10  50  40
GPT  60  41  63  41 /   0  10  30  40
PQL  61  38  66  39 /   0  10  30  40

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE. 

[dkmac]

48F temp and 47F dewpoint this morning with light rain falling. The high today will be in the lower 60's with cloudy skies and a 90% chance of rain. Not looking good for the Saturday night parades in New Orleans.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
355 AM CST FRI FEB 10 2012

...MARDI GRAS PARADES LOOK TO BE WET TONIGHT AND COLD SATURDAY
NIGHT...

.SHORT TERM...RAIN MOVED INTO THE REGION MUCH FASTER THAN WE
THOUGHT. THIS IS DUE TO WHAT LOOKS LIKE IMPRESSIVE ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE AROUND THE 290-295K LVL. THIS ALLOWED MOST LOCATIONS TO
MEASURE BEFORE MIDNIGHT. AS FOR TEMPS...IT HAS BEEN A RELATIVELY
COOL DAMP NIGHT AS TEMPS ARE BASICALLY RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S TO
MID 50S.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...THINGS LOOK ON TRACK IF NOT EVEN FASTER THAN
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. OUR S/W IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH CNTRL OK/TX
WITH THE COLD FRONT ANALYZED BACK IN WEST TX STRETCHING TO THE SW
FROM A WEAKLY DEFINED SFC WAVE JUST NW OF DFW. THERE IS A DECENT BIT
OF SHRA WELL AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND THIS IS MORE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE S/W. THIS WILL BE OUR ISSUE FOR THIS AFTN BUT WE WILL
LIKELY BE DEALING WITH SCT TO NUMEROUS LGT SHRA THIS MORNING
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WEST. THE AREA OF ENHANCED ISENTROPIC LIFT
WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD OUR WRN/NWRN ZONES EARLY THIS MORNING
AND LOOK FOR ACTIVITY TO PICK UP FROM NOW THROUGH AT LEAST 15Z.
AFTER 15Z WE WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO MORE OF A ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE OR
NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT AND THEN JUST WAIT ON THE ADDED FORCING OF THE
S/W WHICH WILL BE THIS AFTN THROUGH THE EVN HRS. H5 HGHTS WILL LOWER
A GOOD 3-4DM B/T 18 AND 00Z TODAY AND WITH PWS HOVERING RIGHT AROUND
AN INCH...THAT MUCH LIFT IN THE MID LVL SHOULD EASILY SQUEEZE OUT
WIDESPREAD SHRA. NOW EVEN THOUGH THERE WILL BE PRETTY GOOD COVERAGE
OF SHRA WE ARE NOT EXPECTING MUCH RAINFALL ACCUMULATION. PWS ARE
STILL NOT IMPRESSIVE...H85 THETA E VALUES ARE QUITE LOW(MAYBE
315K)...WE WILL BE UNDER THE WRONG QUAD OF THE UPPER JET...AND
INSTABILITY IS QUIET LAME SO THE SHRA WILL NOT BE VERY EFFICIENT.

AS FOR CONCERNS TONIGHT WITH REGARDS TO MARDI GRAS PARADES...LOOK
FOR MAINLY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WITH PRETTY COOL TEMPS. HIGHS
TODAY WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THANKS TO BOTH COOLER LL TEMPS AND
EXPANSIVE CLOUD COVER/RAIN. H925 TEMPS ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO BE
AROUND 8-10C AND THIS SHOULD TRANSLATE TO HIGHS WITHIN 2 DEGREES ON
EITHER SIDE OF 60 BUT BY 00Z JUST ABOUT EVERYONE SHOULD BE IN THE
MID 50S POSSIBLY NEAR 50 ACROSS SWRN MS. LUCKILY THE COLD FRONT WILL
STILL BE WEST OF THE AREA SO TEMPS WON`T DROP QUICKLY DURING THE EVN
HRS. AFTER 6Z THOUGH THAT WILL CHANGE AS THE COLD FRONT SHOULD
QUICKLY BE PUSHING THROUGH THE REGION WITH H925 TEMPS DROPPING FROM
AROUND 6C AT 00Z TO 0-2C BY 12Z.

THIS WEEKEND...LOOK FOR QUIET YET COLD CONDITIONS. IT IS LOOKING
MORE AND MORE LIKELY THAT THE CANADIAN AIRMASS WILL BE ABLE TO
PLUNGE ALL THE WAY TO THE GULF NOW ON SAT. CAA WILL BE ONGOING
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND INTO THE EVN HRS. H925 TEMPS MAY DROP TO -5C
OVER THE SWRN MS COUNTIES BY MIDDAY AND THIS COULD TRANSLATE TO
HIGHS STRUGGLING TO GET MUCH ABV THE LOWER 40S IN THAT AREA WITH
LOWER 50S AT BEST ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF THE CWA. MUCH DRIER AIR
WILL WORK INTO THE REGION WITH DEWPOINTS EXPECTED IN THE LOWER TEENS
BY SUN MORNING...THIS ALONG WITH A CANADIAN AIRMASS MOVING IN COULD
ACTUALLY LEAD TO SOME OF THE COLDEST TEMPS WE HAVE SEEN THIS ENTIRE
SEASON BUT AT THE VERY LEAST THE COLDEST TEMPS WE HAVE SEEN IN ABOUT
A MONTH. SAT NIGHT WILL NOT NECESSARILY BE A RADIATIONAL COOLING
NIGHT AS THE LL WINDS WILL NOT DECOUPLE...AND TYPICALLY IN THESE
COLD AIRMASSES THEY NEVER DO BUT THE CAA WILL BE MORE THAN
SUFFICIENT AND WITH TEMPS LIKELY STARTING OFF AROUND 40 TO 50 BEFORE
SUNSET TEMPS WILL HAVE A GOOD STARTING OFF POINT AND ALREADY BE ON
THEIR WAY DOWN. IT WONT TAKE VERY LONG FOR TEMPS TO GET DOWN TO NEAR
FREEZING IN SOME LOCATIONS. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE A MODERATE TO
EVEN HARD FREEZE IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE AREA WHILE A
LIGHT FREEZE COULD IMPACT MUCH OF THE SRN HALF OF THE CWA INCLUDING
THE SOUTHSHORE. TYPICALLY THIS WOULDN`T BE THAT BIG OF AN ISSUE BUT
GIVEN HOW WARM IT HAS BEEN THIS YEAR WHICH HAS ALLOWED FOR DECENT
GROWTH VEGETATION/CROP WISE AND ANYWHERE FROM 30 DAYS OR MORE SINCE
THE LAST FREEZE WE WILL NEED TO ISSUE A FREEZE WARNING AT THE LEAST
IF NOT A HARD FREEZE WARNING FOR SOME AREAS. DAY SHIFT WILL LOOK AT
THAT SOME MORE AND MAY MAKE THE CALL TO ISSUE THE WARNINGS. /CAB/

.LONG TERM...OVERALL NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED IN THE THINKING IN THE
EXTENDED. THE ECMWF AND GFS CONTINUE TO SHOW TWO SYSTEMS COMING
THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH ONLY SOME SLIGHT TIMING ISSUES WITH THE
SECOND SYSTEM LATER IN THE WEEK. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN A
MOSTLY WET AND SLIGHTLY ABV NORMAL FCST. WILL STICK VERY CLOSE TO
THE LATEST MEX GUI.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN COMES AT US QUICK AND WILL IMPACT THE
REGION BY MIDDAY/AFTN MON. THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY NEAR THE BAJA
WILL OPEN UP AS EXPECTED LATE SAT AND AND LIFT OUT TO THE NE AND
LATER MERGE OVER TX WITH A PAC S/W EXPECTED TO COME ONSHORE SAT
NIGHT. THIS ENERGY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY MON AFTN AND
EVN. ONCE AGAIN INSTABILITY IS QUITE LACKING BUT WITH A DRASTIC
INCREASE IN PAC MOISTURE COMING IN SHRA SHOULD NOT HAVE A PROBLEM
DEVELOPING WITH THIS WAVE. SCT SHRA COULD PERSIST INTO THE MORNING
HRS TUES BUT WE SHOULD START DRYING OUT AS THE DISTURBANCE PULLS
AWAY.

THINGS BECOME A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAIN BY MID/LATE WEEK. THE NEXT
POTENT PAC ENERGY WILL ACROSS THE WRN CONUS AND THE QUESTION IS HOW
FAR SOUTH DOES IT DIG. EITHER WAY WE WILL START TO MOVE BACK UNDER
SW FLOW ALOFT WITH BROAD LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING AT THE SFC OVER ERN
TX AND THE NWRN GULF. THIS WILL LEAD TO A STATIONARY BNDRY DRAPED
NEAR THE REGION. THAT ALONG WITH THE SW FLOW ALOFT WILL PROVIDE BOTH
A FOCUS IN THE LL AND BROAD LIFT ALOFT WHICH COULD LEAD TO DECENT
COVERAGE OF RAIN LATE WED AND THU. INSTABILITY EVEN LOOKS TO
INCREASE SO TSRA WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO RETURN. IF CURRENT MDLS HOLD
ONTO TO SOME CONSISTENCY AND CONTINUE TO SHOW A SLOW EVOLVING
PATTERN WITH A GULF LOW FINALLY DEVELOPING LATE THU WE COULD SEE A
MORE PROLONGED RAIN EVENT THIS TIME. AGAIN THE MDLS ARE STRUGGLING
WITH THIS MUCH ENERGY MOVING INTO THE REGION SO THE FCST AT DAYS 6-7
WILL LIKELY BE CHANGING SIGNIFICANTLY FROM DAY TO DAY. /CAB/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST MOST OF THE
MORNING HOURS...WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE IN PRECIPITATION.
WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED NEAR THE AREA. OVERRUNNING SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP
MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA UNTIL SHORTWAVE PASSAGE EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER INTO THE MVFR RANGE DURING
THE DAYTIME HOURS TODAY...BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE IFR
RANGE. FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...CONDITIONS SHOULD START IMPROVING FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AFTER 06Z SATURDAY. /35/

&&

.MARINE...FORECAST WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE GREATLY OVER THE
WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS. EXERCISE
CAUTION CONDITIONS WILL PROBABLY NEED TO BE RAISED LATE TONIGHT
AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORTWAVE OVER WESTERN WATERS...AND SPREAD
TO ALL OPEN WATERS SATURDAY MORNING. ADVISORIES MAY NEED TO BE
ISSUED LATER TODAY. CONDITIONS WILL MORE THAN LIKELY CONTINUE TO
WARRANT EXERCISE CAUTION ON THE LAKES AND SOUNDS SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY EVENING ALONG WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE INNER AND
OUTER COASTAL WATERS. WINDS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOT
RANGE ON THE LAKE AND IN THE 20 TO 25 KNOT RANGE OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS. FORECAST SEAS RANGE FROM 4 TO 5 FEET OVER THE INNER WATERS
AND 5 TO 8 FEET OVER THE OUTER WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT...POSSIBLY
PEAKING AROUND 9 FEET SUNDAY MORNING.  ONCE THE SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH...RETURN FLOW WILL BEGIN ON MONDAY BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM
PASSES ON TUESDAY. /35/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  55  37  46  21 / 100  10   0   0
BTR  58  41  52  25 / 100  10   0   0
ASD  61  42  53  24 /  90  30   0   0
MSY  61  43  52  31 /  90  30   0   0
GPT  61  42  54  25 /  80  30   0   0
PQL  64  41  54  23 /  60  40   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE. 

[dkmac]

Hard freeze watch.
On WU hourly forecast for Saturday night for Covington, they're forecasting the temp to fall below freezing just before midnight, and not rise above freezing until 8ish AM Sunday morning. NWS forecasts a low of 24F for Saturday night/Sunday morning.

[h=3]Hard Freeze Watch[/h]
URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA354 PM CST FRI FEB 10 2012...COLD TEMPERATURES TO RETURN TO THE AREA....AN ARCTIC AIR MASS TRACKING ACROSS THE COUNTRY WILL MOVE INTO THEAREA OVER THE WEEKEND. WARMER TEMPERATURES A COUPLE WEEKS AGO HAVEALLOWED MANY PLANTS TO PREMATURELY BEGIN BLOOMING. WITHTEMPERATURES POSSIBLY FALLING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S...THEPOTENTIAL EXISTS FOR PIPES TO FREEZE OR BUST AND THESE PLANTS TOBE NEGATIVELY IMPACTED. THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE ALONG ANDNORTH OF INTERSTATE 12.LAZ036-037-039-040-071-072-MSZ068>071-077-080>082-110600-/O.NEW.KLIX.HZ.A.0001.120212T0600Z-120212T1400Z/EAST FELICIANA-ST. HELENA-WASHINGTON-ST. TAMMANY-NORTHERN TANGIPAHOA-SOUTHERN TANGIPAHOA-WILKINSON-AMITE-PIKE-WALTHALL-PEARL RIVER-HANCOCK-HARRISON-JACKSON-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JACKSON...CLINTON...GREENSBURG...MONTPELIER.. .BOGALUSA...FRANKLINTON...SLIDELL...MANDEVILLE...C OVINGTON...LACOMBE...AMITE...KENTWOOD...HAMMOND... PONCHATOULA...CENTREVILLE...WOODVILLE...GLOSTER... LIBERTY...CROSBY...MCCOMB...TYLERTOWN...PICAYUNE.. .BAY ST. LOUIS...WAVELAND...DIAMONDHEAD...GULFPORT...BILOXI ...PASCAGOULA...OCEAN SPRINGS...MOSS POINT...GAUTIER...ST. MARTIN354 PM CST FRI FEB 10 2012...HARD FREEZE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGHSUNDAY MORNING...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A HARDFREEZE WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHTTHROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.* TIMING...APPROXIMATELY 6 HOURS OF SUB FREEZING TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...A HARD FREEZE WATCH MEANS SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE.THESE CONDITIONS COULD KILL CROPS AND OTHER SENSITIVE VEGETATION.