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Thread: New Orleans Local Weather thread

  1. #21
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    000
    Fxus64 Klix 010805
    Afdlix

    Area Forecast Discussion
    National Weather Service New Orleans La
    205 Am Cst Wed Mar 1 2006

    .discussion...
    Cold Front Will Make Its Way Through The Area Thu Night. No Strong
    Caa Will Keep Temps At More Normal Levels For The Next Several
    Days. A Few Areas Are Falling To Their Dp Temps This Morning And
    So Some Radiation Fog Is Forming. Should Be Patchy In Nature With
    No Advection Fog This Morning. Next Few Mornings...especially As
    The Cold Front Gets Closer For Thu Night May See More Widespread
    Fog But For Now Simply Heavy Dew And Patchy Rad Fog.

    Looks For Now That The Next Seven Days Will Be Dry For The Most
    Part. Next Thursday Looks To Be The Best Day For Any Real Chance
    Of Rainfall Attm.




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  3. #22
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    Area Forecast Discussion

    000
    FXUS64 KLIX 011722 AAA
    AFDLIX

    AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
    1120 AM CST WED MAR 1 2006

    .DISCUSSION...
    UPDATED ZONES ONLY TO REMOVE MORNING PATCHY FOG WORDING FROM THE 1ST
    PERIOD. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE.
    SHOULD SEE SAME PATCHY FOG SCENARIO ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.

    &&




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  4. #23
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    I wouldn't be shocked to see a dense fog advisory issued for tomorrow night




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  5. #24
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    000
    Fxus64 Klix 012052
    Afdlix

    Area Forecast Discussion
    National Weather Service New Orleans La
    252 Pm Cst Wed Mar 1 2006

    .discussion...
    This Afternoon...surface High Pressure Elongated E To W Across E
    Gulf Into Atlantic...leaving Srly Flow Across The Region Tonight.
    Low Pressure Center And Associated Developing Frontal System
    Extending From Ern Ks. Into Sw Tx. With Srly Flow Tonight Will Set
    Up For Fog Scenario Tonight. Advisory May Need To Be Issued Later
    This Evening. As The Front Gets Closer On Thur...flow Will Turn
    More Sw/w Which Will Cut Off Some Of Out Moisture Inflow From The
    Gulf. Not Looking At Major Rain Chances With This System. Had Hard
    Time To Include 10 Percent Slight Chance Of Evening Showers With
    Frontal Passage. However...some Shallow Moisture Behind The Front
    That Will Be Slow To Move Out Could Help Another Night Of Fog For
    Thur Night.

    For Fri/sat Time Frame Nrly/nerly Flow Sets Up But High Center
    Remains Well N Of The Area And Slowly Scoots Ewd Allowing For
    Pleasant...cool...drying Weather But Not A Big Influx Of Really
    Cold Air With 1000-500 Thicknesses Only Around 558-562.

    By Sun...high Begins To Push Enough Ewd To Reintroduce Se/s Flow
    And Enough Moisture To Have Some Low Pops In Ahead Of Our Next
    Frontal System Which Moves Through On Monday.


    &&

    .preliminary Point Temps/pops...
    Mcb 55 78 53 69 / 0 0 10 0
    Btr 56 80 54 72 / 0 0 10 0
    Msy 59 79 57 73 / 0 0 10 0
    Gpt 58 76 56 71 / 0 0 10 0

    &&

    .lix Watches/warnings/advisories...
    La...none.
    Ms...none.
    Gm...none.




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  6. #25
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    Us64 Klix 021025
    Afdlix

    Area Forecast Discussion
    National Weather Service New Orleans La
    425 Am Cst Thu Mar 2 2006

    .discussion...
    Fog Has Been Patchy Thus Far Early This Morning. As Is Often The
    Case...the Fog Is Likely To Get Somewhat Worse Around Daybreak
    Today...and A Dense Fog Advisory May Be Required For A Portion Of
    The Area As Soon As The Area Is Well Defined.

    Otherwise...this Is A Mostly Dry Forecast With Temperatures
    Returning Closer To Normal Behind A Cold Front On Friday Into
    The Weekend. A Cold Upper Vortex Over New England And The
    Canadian Maritimes Will Send A Trough Down Through The Oh Valley
    And Mid Atlantic States Today And Tonight. This Will Help Push The
    Cold Front Through The Area Tonight. There Could Be A Few
    Sprinkles This Evening Associated With The Front But Will Not
    Mention Any Measurable Rain.

    The Next Chance Of Rain Comes Around Monday Into Tuesday...but
    Once Again This Is A Weak System With Most Of The Energy Passing
    Well North...so The Shower Chances Are Low At This Point. The
    Models Have Really Backed Off On Cold Front Associated With This
    System And Are Stalling It Out To Our North Rather Than In The
    Gulf Of Mexico.

    A More Substantial Shortwave Trough Is Expected Next Thursday
    Which May Bring Thunderstorms...but That Is 8 Days Out At This
    Point.

    &&




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  7. #26
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    Today: Sunny, with a high near 70. North wind between 10 and 15 mph.

    Tonight: Clear, with a low around 50. Northeast wind around 15 mph.

    Saturday: Sunny, with a high near 67. East wind between 5 and 15 mph.

    Saturday Night: Mostly clear, with a low near 51. East wind around 5 mph.

    Sunday: Partly cloudy, with a high near 72. East wind 5 to 10 mph becoming south.

    Sunday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 58.

    Monday: Partly cloudy, with a high near 74.

    Monday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 57.

    Tuesday: Partly cloudy, with a high near 73.

    Tuesday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low near 60.

    Wednesday: Partly cloudy, with a high near 79.

    Wednesday Night: A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a low around 64.

    Thursday: A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy and breezy, with a high around 79.




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  8. #27
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    Default

    Rollie, will the front pushing through today bring any rain or anything severe? I don't see anything on the Doppler but I see the sky is dark to my North. Thanks!

  9. #28
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    i'll let roll answer that question, but i think you're in the clear lana

    fwiw, you may want to bookmark this site..."golden triangle weather"

    it's especially good during cane season, but it has a bazillion links that auto refresh...it's more for beaumont, port arthur and lake charles, but can still be very helpful

    ira wilsker runs the site...they took a bad hit during rita...i think (but i'm not sure) he lost his dog :(

    anyway, just throwing that out there for ya...kind of one stop shopping for some awesome links

  10. #29
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    000
    Fxus64 Klix 032123
    Afdlix

    Area Forecast Discussion
    National Weather Service New Orleans La
    323 Pm Cst Fri Mar 3 2006

    .discussion...a Rather Warm Day Unfolded Across The Central Gulf
    Coast Region Today With Temperatures Reaching Into The Mid 70s
    Across Several Locations. Cooler And Continued Dry Air Though
    Should Filter Its Way Into The Region Tonight As An Expansive High
    Pressure Builds Across The Eastern Conus. Generally Dry And Mild
    Conditions Look To Persist Through The Weekend Period As High
    Pressure Prevails At The Surface And An Upper Ridge Pattern Builds
    Across The Region. High Pressure Then Looks To Shift Toward The
    Atlantic Basin By Mon As A Weak Upper Trough And Associated
    Surface Boundary Moves Through The Lower Mississippi Valley.
    Moisture And Lift Though Appear Minimal At This Point Though With
    Only A Slight Chance Of Rain Expected Mon. The Forecast Area
    Though Does Not Look To Receive Much Of A Cool Down Past Mon As
    The Surface Boundary Weakens With The Brunt Of The Cooler Air
    Remaining Well North. Above Normal Temperatures Then Look To
    Prevail Into Mid Week As High Pressure Again Builds Across The
    Eastern States With A Ridge Pattern Prevailing Aloft. By Thu Of
    Next Week...a Transitional Pattern Still Looks To Impact The
    Region As A More Potent Shortwave Pushes Through The Plains
    States With Unstable Weather Approaching The Forecast Area.
    &&




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  11. #30
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    Area Forecast Discussion
    000
    FXUS64 KLIX 040901
    AFDLIX

    AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
    301 AM CST SAT MAR 4 2006

    .DISCUSSION...
    NICE COOL DRY DAYS IN THE SHORT TERM WILL CHANGE TO HOT AND MUGGY
    IN THE MID TO EXTENDED. THE NORTHERLY WIND REGIME WILL ALL BUT
    COME TO AN END SUNDAY. A BACK DOOR FRONT WILL SINK INTO THE AREA
    THE START OF THE WORK WEEK AND STALL ALONG A NW-SE ORIENTATION
    SPLITTING THE AREA IS TWO. AFTERWARDS SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
    DOMINATE. THE FETCH WILL GROW TO THE SOUTHERN GULF WATERS BRINGING
    THE MUGGY CONDITIONS WITH IT. WITH ONLY PAC FRONTAL SYSTEMS MOVING
    INTO THE AREA BY THE END OF THE WEEK...CAN`T SEE ANY STRONG PRECIP
    CHANCES UNTIL THAT TIME.

    THE LATEST SURGE OF OF NORTHERLY WINDS IS CAUSING WINDS AND SEAS
    IN THE GULF WATERS TO INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
    IN THE WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA TO MISS RIVER OUT 20-60NM.
    ELSEWHERE...CATIONARY STATEMENTS WILL CONTINUE FOR WINDS AT 20
    KNOTS.




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  12. #31
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    Area Forecast Discussion
    000
    FXUS64 KLIX 050850
    AFDLIX

    AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
    250 AM CST SUN MAR 5 2006

    .DISCUSSION...

    EARLY THIS MORNING THERE WAS A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW OVER THE
    CENTRAL PLAINS AND A RIDGE ALOFT OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS
    RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AS SHORTWAVES MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
    INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE SURFACE LOW WILL PULL INTO THE MID-
    ATLANTIC STATES BY MONDAY MORNING WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT
    STRETCHING INTO CENTRAL LOUISIANA. THE LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE WITH
    THIS SYSTEM AND MOST UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT REMAINING WELL TO THE
    NORTH SHOULD LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR MEASURABLE RAIN IN THE PCWA.
    AFTER THE TAIL END OF THE FRONT PULLS EAST OF THE AREA THE UPPER-
    LEVEL RIDGE WILL REDEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THE NEXT
    SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP IN THE PLAINS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH A
    STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING FROM EAST TEXAS INTO ARKANSAS ON THURSDAY.
    THIS SHOULD BRING A BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN TO OUR AREA. THE
    PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD BE RELATIVELY TIGHT...LEADING TO STRONG
    SOUTHERLY WINDS FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK




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  13. #32
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    Today: Patchy fog before 8am. Otherwise, partly cloudy, with a high around 76. Northwest wind around 5 mph.

    Tonight: Clear, with a low around 56. North wind between 5 and 10 mph.

    Tuesday: Mostly sunny, with a high around 73. East wind around 10 mph.

    Tuesday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low near 56. South wind around 10 mph.

    Wednesday: A 10 percent chance of showers. Partly cloudy, with a high near 77. South wind around 15 mph.

    Wednesday Night: A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a low around 63.

    Thursday: A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy and breezy, with a high near 81.

    Thursday Night: A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy and breezy, with a low around 63.

    Friday: A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a high near 80.

    Friday Night: A slight chance of showers. Partly cloudy, with a low near 65.

    Saturday: A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a high near 80.

    Saturday Night: A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a low around 64.

    Sunday: A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a high near 79.




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  14. #33
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    Today: Patchy fog before 8am. Otherwise, mostly sunny, with a high around 73. Northeast wind 5 to 15 mph becoming southeast.

    Tonight: Mostly clear, with a low around 56. South wind around 5 mph.

    Wednesday: A 10 percent chance of showers. Partly cloudy, with a high near 77. Breezy, with a south wind between 10 and 20 mph.

    Wednesday Night: A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a low near 64. South wind around 15 mph.

    Thursday: A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high around 79. Windy, with a south wind 15 to 20 mph increasing to between 25 and 30 mph.

    Thursday Night: A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms before midnight. Partly cloudy, with a low around 65.

    Friday: A 10 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a high around 81.

    Friday Night: A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a low around 67.

    Saturday: A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy and breezy, with a high around 81.

    Saturday Night: A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a low near 6




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  15. #34
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    Fxus64 Klix 080906
    Afdlix

    Area Forecast Discussion
    National Weather Service New Orleans La
    306 Am Cst Wed Mar 8 2006

    .discussion...

    Early This Morning There Was A Developing Surface Low Over Kansas
    With An Upper-level Trough Over The Desert Southwest. This System
    Will Move To The East By Thursday Afternoon With The Surface Low
    Moving Into Missouri...the Cold Front Approaching Western
    Louisiana...and The Shortwave Over Eastern Oklahoma/texas. The 00z
    Run Of The Eta Shows The Energy From The Shortwave Extending
    Farther South Into Louisiana...but The Gfs Shows More Precip
    Extending South To The Gulf Coast. We Will Continue To Show
    Thunderstorms Likely Thursday With Most Of The Strong To Severe
    Activity Remaining To The North Of Our Pcwa. Southerly Flow Is
    Expected To Return Rapidly Behind The Thursday Nights Frontal
    Passage. This Will Lead To At Least A Small Chance Of
    Showers/thunderstorms Into Next Week. Temps May Drop A Little
    Thursday And Thursday Night...but Otherwise Will Remain
    Significantly Above Average Through Early Next Week.

    &&

    .preliminary Point Temps/pops...
    Mcb 77 60 74 55 / 0 20 70 30
    Btr 80 63 77 55 / 0 20 70 20
    Msy 78 64 78 61 / 0 10 60 20
    Gpt 73 59 74 59 / 0 10 60 40

    &&




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  16. #35
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    Area Forecast Discussion
    000
    FXUS64 KLIX 090854
    AFDLIX

    AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
    254 AM CST THU MAR 9 2006

    .DISCUSSION...

    EARLY THIS MORNING THERE WAS A SURFACE LOW OVER NORTH TEXAS WITH
    AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING INTO WEST TEXAS. THE PRESSURE
    GRADIENT TO THE EAST OF THIS SYSTEM WAS TIGHTENING...LEADING TO
    WINDS INCREASING ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. OVER LAND WINDS
    ARE LIKELY TO REACH 25 TO 30 MPH OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...
    MAINLY SOUTH OF BATON ROUGE AND LAKES PONTCHARTRAIN/MAUREPAS...
    THEREFORE A WIND ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH
    RAPIDLY OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. WINDS ALSO WILL BE
    HIGH ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS...THUS SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
    CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT.

    THE OTHER SIGNIFICANT CONCERN WITH THIS SYSTEM IS THE POTENTIAL
    FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE SHOULD PASS
    NORTH OF OUR AREA...MOVING FROM EAST TEXAS TO NORTH MISSISSIPPI
    DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND GOING FROM A NEUTRAL TO NEGATIVE
    TILT IN THE PROCESS. NEAR BATON ROUGE THE GFS SHOWS 0-3KM SR
    HELICITY VALUES OF 450-500...WITH THE NAM 600-625. VALUES DROP OFF
    SOUTH TOWARD THE GULF COAST. THIS COUPLED WITH AMPLE INSTABILITY
    AND A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET OF 60-75 KNOTS WILL LEAD TO A
    POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE EASTWARD-MOVING
    SQUALL LINE THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY.
    DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...HAIL...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE
    POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

    BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AND AMPLE MOISTURE
    WILL LINGER IN THE AREA. THUS THERE WILL BE A GOOD CHANCE FOR FOG.
    THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RETURN AND CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY WITH
    AMPLE MOISTURE AND WEAK DISTURBANCES ALOFT...LEADING TO AT LEAST A
    SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. TEMPS ALSO WILL
    CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THE NEXT FRONT
    IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGH
    PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA BEHIND IT.


    &&




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  17. #36
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    Area Forecast Discussion
    000
    FXUS64 KLIX 101250
    AFDLIX

    AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
    650 AM CST FRI MAR 10 2006

    .UPDATE...AREAS OF DENSE FOG HAVE BECOME MORE ENHANCED AND
    WIDESPREAD THIS MORNING ACROSS SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI LEADING INTO
    EAST-CENTRAL LOUISIANA. HAVE THEREFORE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY
    FOR THE AFFECTED AREAS. THE FOG SHOULD BEGIN TO LIFT WITHIN A FEW
    HOURS AFTER DAYBREAK.
    &&

    .PREV DISCUSSION...SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS ARE
    IMPACTING PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING MAINLY ACROSS
    SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI LEADING INTO EAST-CENTRAL LOUISIANA. THE FOG
    SHOULD LIFT LATER THIS MORNING BUT CLOUD COVER APPEARS TO BE ON
    THE INCREASE ACROSS ALL THE AREA LATER TODAY AS WEAK DISTURBANCES
    ALOFT MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL ALSO PROVIDE A SLIGHT
    CHANCE OF RAIN AND THUNDER TODAY AND TONIGHT.

    OVERALL...HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS
    TODAY AND BUILD TOWARD THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD BY SAT. THE GRADIENT
    AT THE SURFACE ALSO LOOKS TO BECOME ENHANCED AGAIN WITH WARM
    SOUTHERLY AIR FILTERING INTO THE REGION ALLOWING TEMPS TO CLIMB
    QUITE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL INTO NEXT WEEK. WITH SOUTHWEST
    FLOW ESTABLISHED ALOFT...WEAK PASSING DISTURBANCES WILL ALSO
    PROVIDE SOME CHANCE OF RAIN AND POSSIBLY THUNDER. WITH DEW POINTS
    INCREASING AS WELL...PATCHY FOG MAY AFFECT PARTS OF THE AREA OVER
    THE NEXT FEW NIGHTS. THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS STILL PROGGED TO
    SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION LATE MON AND INTO TUE WITH PERHAPS A
    CLEARING AND COOLING TREND BEGINNING MID WEEK.
    &&

    .MARINE...WHILE THE GRADIENT HAS WEAKENED FOR NOW ALLOWING WINDS
    OVER THE GULF WATERS TO DIMINISH...A DEEP SWELL TRAIN REMAINS IN
    PLACE SUPPORTED BY A BROAD FETCH OVER THE MIDDLE GULF. THIS IS
    ALLOWING SEAS BEYOND THE NEAR SHORE RANGE TO RUN WELL ABOVE 7
    FEET. WITH THE GRADIENT EXPECTED TO INCREASE AGAIN...THIS SWELL
    TRAIN MAY INDEED LAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND PERIOD AND INTO NEXT
    WEEK BEFORE THE NEXT COLD FRONT CAN OFFSET THE FETCH PATTERN.
    THEREFORE...A NEW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS WILL BE
    ISSUED THIS MORNING FOR THE GULF COASTAL WATERS AND PERSIST INTO
    THE WEEKEND PERIOD.




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  18. #37
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    Saturday: Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Patchy fog before 9am. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a high around 82. Breezy, with a south wind between 10 and 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

    Saturday Night: Isolated showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low near 68. South wind between 10 and 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

    Sunday: Isolated showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high around 83. South wind between 10 and 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

    Sunday Night: Isolated showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 67. Chance of precipitation is 10%.

    Monday: Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 80. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

    Monday Night: Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy and breezy, with a low around 58.




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  19. #38
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    000
    Fxus64 Klix 110903
    Afdlix

    Area Forecast Discussion
    National Weather Service New Orleans La
    303 Am Cst Sat Mar 11 2006

    .discussion...
    Warm Moist Air Has Move Back Into The State As A Warm Front Was
    Forced Northward. The Next Cold Front Is Due Into The Area Monday
    Night. Upper Trough And Forcing Look Strong Enough To Move The
    Front Through The State But As The Main Sfc Low Move Quickly
    Ne...the Front Should Slow Its Forward Progress As It Begins To
    Move Into Our Area. The Gfs Doesn`t Show This As Well As The Eta
    But A Solution On Timing Somewhere In Between The Two Models May
    Be What Will Occur. Will Not Change Any Temporal Grids Attm But
    Will Monitor Timing As Cold Front May Move Through The Area During
    The Daylight Hours Of Tuesday Morning.

    Can`t Find Any Reason To Sound Alarms Of Severity Attm Either. But
    Since The Fropa Is Still Three Days Away Will Simply Watch Future
    Mod Solutions.




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  20. #39
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    000
    Fxus64 Klix 120939
    Afdlix

    Area Forecast Discussion
    National Weather Service New Orleans La
    339 Am Cst Sun Mar 12 2006

    .discussion...
    Cold Front Will Begin Its Formation Over The Foothills Of The
    Rockies Today And Move Se Quickly At First. As The Sfc Low Begins
    To Lift Out To The Ne...the Front Should Slow A Little As It Moves
    Through The Area Monday Night. Agreement From The Gfs And Eta On
    Timing Is Getting Much Better. Forecast Already Depicts The Cold
    Front Moving Through The Area Around Midnight Monday Night And
    Will Leave This Variable Alone. As A Matter Of Fact...i Couldn`t
    Find Anything To Change Until The Cold Front Moves In. With A
    Stagnant Pattern...model Numbers Will Be Hard To Beat By Too Much.
    Going Forecast Looks Excellent And Will Therefore Not Touch
    Anything Until Fourth Period(monday Night) And Then Only Minor
    Changes.




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  21. #40
    Join Date
    Apr 2004
    Location
    Ft Morgan, AL
    Posts
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    Area Forecast Discussion
    000
    FXUS64 KLIX 130808
    AFDLIX

    AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
    208 AM CST MON MAR 13 2006

    .DISCUSSION...THE PRIMARY FOCUS OF THIS FORECAST PACKAGE INVOLVES
    UPCOMING RAIN CHANCES FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE MODELS APPEAR
    FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE ADVERTISED COLD FRONT
    OUT OF THE PLAINS STATES SWEEPING THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN 0Z AND
    06Z TONIGHT. CONVECTION THOUGH LOOKS TO BEGIN THIS AFTERNOON WITH
    THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES OCCURRING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
    FORECAST AREA. BY THIS EVENING...SLIGHTLY HIGHER RAIN CHANCES
    SHOULD BE IN STORE FOR LOWER SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND COASTAL
    MISSISSIPPI. WHILE THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SOME STRONG TO SEVERE
    STORMS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT...THE BETTER DYNAMICS AND
    FORCING LOOK TO REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE CWA/PWA. GOOD INSTABILITY
    AND MODERATE SHEAR THOUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST WILL STILL
    PROVIDE SOME RISK OF STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. THE COLD FRONT LOOKS
    TO EXIT THE REGION RAPIDLY BY TUE WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
    BUILDING ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. SLIGHTLY COOLER AND
    DRIER AIR SETTLES IN FOR TUE AND WED BEFORE BEFORE SOUTHERLY FLOW
    RETURNS THU AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
    THE REGION THU AND THU NIGHT.
    &&

    .MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE TUE AND WED
    BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT WITH THE WIND FIELD AND
    PRESSURE GRADIENT AT THE SURFACE INCREASING OUT OF THE NORTH. THE
    GRADIENT DOES NOT LOOK TO WEAKEN MUCH BY THU AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
    DEVELOPS BEFORE QUICKLY TURNING BACK TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WITH THE
    PASSAGE OF THE NEXT FRONT BY FRI.
    &&

    .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
    MCB 79 51 67 40 / 50 40 10 0
    BTR 81 52 68 42 / 50 40 10 0
    MSY 82 57 69 51 / 40 50 10 0
    GPT 77 55 69 44 / 40 50 10 0
    &&

    .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
    LA...NONE.
    GM...NONE.
    MS...NONE.
    GM...NONE.
    &&




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