New Orleans Local Weather thread

[ROLLTIDE]

000
Fxus64 Klix 010805
Afdlix

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans La
205 Am Cst Wed Mar 1 2006

.discussion...
Cold Front Will Make Its Way Through The Area Thu Night. No Strong
Caa Will Keep Temps At More Normal Levels For The Next Several
Days. A Few Areas Are Falling To Their Dp Temps This Morning And
So Some Radiation Fog Is Forming. Should Be Patchy In Nature With
No Advection Fog This Morning. Next Few Mornings...especially As
The Cold Front Gets Closer For Thu Night May See More Widespread
Fog But For Now Simply Heavy Dew And Patchy Rad Fog.

Looks For Now That The Next Seven Days Will Be Dry For The Most
Part. Next Thursday Looks To Be The Best Day For Any Real Chance
Of Rainfall Attm.

[ROLLTIDE]

Area Forecast Discussion

000
FXUS64 KLIX 011722 AAA
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1120 AM CST WED MAR 1 2006

.DISCUSSION...
UPDATED ZONES ONLY TO REMOVE MORNING PATCHY FOG WORDING FROM THE 1ST
PERIOD. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE.
SHOULD SEE SAME PATCHY FOG SCENARIO ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.

&&

[ROLLTIDE]

I wouldn't be shocked to see a dense fog advisory issued for tomorrow night

[ROLLTIDE]

000
Fxus64 Klix 012052
Afdlix

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans La
252 Pm Cst Wed Mar 1 2006

.discussion...
This Afternoon...surface High Pressure Elongated E To W Across E
Gulf Into Atlantic...leaving Srly Flow Across The Region Tonight.
Low Pressure Center And Associated Developing Frontal System
Extending From Ern Ks. Into Sw Tx. With Srly Flow Tonight Will Set
Up For Fog Scenario Tonight. Advisory May Need To Be Issued Later
This Evening. As The Front Gets Closer On Thur...flow Will Turn
More Sw/w Which Will Cut Off Some Of Out Moisture Inflow From The
Gulf. Not Looking At Major Rain Chances With This System. Had Hard
Time To Include 10 Percent Slight Chance Of Evening Showers With
Frontal Passage. However...some Shallow Moisture Behind The Front
That Will Be Slow To Move Out Could Help Another Night Of Fog For
Thur Night.

For Fri/sat Time Frame Nrly/nerly Flow Sets Up But High Center
Remains Well N Of The Area And Slowly Scoots Ewd Allowing For
Pleasant...cool...drying Weather But Not A Big Influx Of Really
Cold Air With 1000-500 Thicknesses Only Around 558-562.

By Sun...high Begins To Push Enough Ewd To Reintroduce Se/s Flow
And Enough Moisture To Have Some Low Pops In Ahead Of Our Next
Frontal System Which Moves Through On Monday.


&&

.preliminary Point Temps/pops...
Mcb 55 78 53 69 / 0 0 10 0
Btr 56 80 54 72 / 0 0 10 0
Msy 59 79 57 73 / 0 0 10 0
Gpt 58 76 56 71 / 0 0 10 0

&&

.lix Watches/warnings/advisories...
La...none.
Ms...none.
Gm...none.

[ROLLTIDE]

Us64 Klix 021025
Afdlix

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans La
425 Am Cst Thu Mar 2 2006

.discussion...
Fog Has Been Patchy Thus Far Early This Morning. As Is Often The
Case...the Fog Is Likely To Get Somewhat Worse Around Daybreak
Today...and A Dense Fog Advisory May Be Required For A Portion Of
The Area As Soon As The Area Is Well Defined.

Otherwise...this Is A Mostly Dry Forecast With Temperatures
Returning Closer To Normal Behind A Cold Front On Friday Into
The Weekend. A Cold Upper Vortex Over New England And The
Canadian Maritimes Will Send A Trough Down Through The Oh Valley
And Mid Atlantic States Today And Tonight. This Will Help Push The
Cold Front Through The Area Tonight. There Could Be A Few
Sprinkles This Evening Associated With The Front But Will Not
Mention Any Measurable Rain.

The Next Chance Of Rain Comes Around Monday Into Tuesday...but
Once Again This Is A Weak System With Most Of The Energy Passing
Well North...so The Shower Chances Are Low At This Point. The
Models Have Really Backed Off On Cold Front Associated With This
System And Are Stalling It Out To Our North Rather Than In The
Gulf Of Mexico.

A More Substantial Shortwave Trough Is Expected Next Thursday
Which May Bring Thunderstorms...but That Is 8 Days Out At This
Point.

&&

[ROLLTIDE]

Today: Sunny, with a high near 70. North wind between 10 and 15 mph.

Tonight: Clear, with a low around 50. Northeast wind around 15 mph.

Saturday: Sunny, with a high near 67. East wind between 5 and 15 mph.

Saturday Night: Mostly clear, with a low near 51. East wind around 5 mph.

Sunday: Partly cloudy, with a high near 72. East wind 5 to 10 mph becoming south.

Sunday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 58.

Monday: Partly cloudy, with a high near 74.

Monday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 57.

Tuesday: Partly cloudy, with a high near 73.

Tuesday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low near 60.

Wednesday: Partly cloudy, with a high near 79.

Wednesday Night: A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a low around 64.

Thursday: A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy and breezy, with a high around 79.

[eyendastorm]

Rollie, will the front pushing through today bring any rain or anything severe? I don't see anything on the Doppler but I see the sky is dark to my North. Thanks!

[LI Phil]

i'll let roll answer that question, but i think you're in the clear lana

fwiw, you may want to bookmark this site..."golden triangle weather"

it's especially good during cane season, but it has a bazillion links that auto refresh...it's more for beaumont, port arthur and lake charles, but can still be very helpful

ira wilsker runs the site...they took a bad hit during rita...i think (but i'm not sure) he lost his dog :(

anyway, just throwing that out there for ya...kind of one stop shopping for some awesome links

[ROLLTIDE]

000
Fxus64 Klix 032123
Afdlix

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans La
323 Pm Cst Fri Mar 3 2006

.discussion...a Rather Warm Day Unfolded Across The Central Gulf
Coast Region Today With Temperatures Reaching Into The Mid 70s
Across Several Locations. Cooler And Continued Dry Air Though
Should Filter Its Way Into The Region Tonight As An Expansive High
Pressure Builds Across The Eastern Conus. Generally Dry And Mild
Conditions Look To Persist Through The Weekend Period As High
Pressure Prevails At The Surface And An Upper Ridge Pattern Builds
Across The Region. High Pressure Then Looks To Shift Toward The
Atlantic Basin By Mon As A Weak Upper Trough And Associated
Surface Boundary Moves Through The Lower Mississippi Valley.
Moisture And Lift Though Appear Minimal At This Point Though With
Only A Slight Chance Of Rain Expected Mon. The Forecast Area
Though Does Not Look To Receive Much Of A Cool Down Past Mon As
The Surface Boundary Weakens With The Brunt Of The Cooler Air
Remaining Well North. Above Normal Temperatures Then Look To
Prevail Into Mid Week As High Pressure Again Builds Across The
Eastern States With A Ridge Pattern Prevailing Aloft. By Thu Of
Next Week...a Transitional Pattern Still Looks To Impact The
Region As A More Potent Shortwave Pushes Through The Plains
States With Unstable Weather Approaching The Forecast Area.
&&

[ROLLTIDE]

Area Forecast Discussion
000
FXUS64 KLIX 040901
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
301 AM CST SAT MAR 4 2006

.DISCUSSION...
NICE COOL DRY DAYS IN THE SHORT TERM WILL CHANGE TO HOT AND MUGGY
IN THE MID TO EXTENDED. THE NORTHERLY WIND REGIME WILL ALL BUT
COME TO AN END SUNDAY. A BACK DOOR FRONT WILL SINK INTO THE AREA
THE START OF THE WORK WEEK AND STALL ALONG A NW-SE ORIENTATION
SPLITTING THE AREA IS TWO. AFTERWARDS SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
DOMINATE. THE FETCH WILL GROW TO THE SOUTHERN GULF WATERS BRINGING
THE MUGGY CONDITIONS WITH IT. WITH ONLY PAC FRONTAL SYSTEMS MOVING
INTO THE AREA BY THE END OF THE WEEK...CAN`T SEE ANY STRONG PRECIP
CHANCES UNTIL THAT TIME.

THE LATEST SURGE OF OF NORTHERLY WINDS IS CAUSING WINDS AND SEAS
IN THE GULF WATERS TO INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
IN THE WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA TO MISS RIVER OUT 20-60NM.
ELSEWHERE...CATIONARY STATEMENTS WILL CONTINUE FOR WINDS AT 20
KNOTS.

[ROLLTIDE]

Area Forecast Discussion
000
FXUS64 KLIX 050850
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
250 AM CST SUN MAR 5 2006

.DISCUSSION...

EARLY THIS MORNING THERE WAS A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND A RIDGE ALOFT OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS
RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AS SHORTWAVES MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE SURFACE LOW WILL PULL INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC STATES BY MONDAY MORNING WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT
STRETCHING INTO CENTRAL LOUISIANA. THE LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE WITH
THIS SYSTEM AND MOST UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT REMAINING WELL TO THE
NORTH SHOULD LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR MEASURABLE RAIN IN THE PCWA.
AFTER THE TAIL END OF THE FRONT PULLS EAST OF THE AREA THE UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE WILL REDEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THE NEXT
SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP IN THE PLAINS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH A
STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING FROM EAST TEXAS INTO ARKANSAS ON THURSDAY.
THIS SHOULD BRING A BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN TO OUR AREA. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD BE RELATIVELY TIGHT...LEADING TO STRONG
SOUTHERLY WINDS FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK

[ROLLTIDE]

Today: Patchy fog before 8am. Otherwise, partly cloudy, with a high around 76. Northwest wind around 5 mph.

Tonight: Clear, with a low around 56. North wind between 5 and 10 mph.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny, with a high around 73. East wind around 10 mph.

Tuesday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low near 56. South wind around 10 mph.

Wednesday: A 10 percent chance of showers. Partly cloudy, with a high near 77. South wind around 15 mph.

Wednesday Night: A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a low around 63.

Thursday: A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy and breezy, with a high near 81.

Thursday Night: A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy and breezy, with a low around 63.

Friday: A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a high near 80.

Friday Night: A slight chance of showers. Partly cloudy, with a low near 65.

Saturday: A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a high near 80.

Saturday Night: A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a low around 64.

Sunday: A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a high near 79.

[ROLLTIDE]

Today: Patchy fog before 8am. Otherwise, mostly sunny, with a high around 73. Northeast wind 5 to 15 mph becoming southeast.

Tonight: Mostly clear, with a low around 56. South wind around 5 mph.

Wednesday: A 10 percent chance of showers. Partly cloudy, with a high near 77. Breezy, with a south wind between 10 and 20 mph.

Wednesday Night: A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a low near 64. South wind around 15 mph.

Thursday: A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high around 79. Windy, with a south wind 15 to 20 mph increasing to between 25 and 30 mph.

Thursday Night: A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms before midnight. Partly cloudy, with a low around 65.

Friday: A 10 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a high around 81.

Friday Night: A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a low around 67.

Saturday: A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy and breezy, with a high around 81.

Saturday Night: A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a low near 6

[ROLLTIDE]

Fxus64 Klix 080906
Afdlix

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans La
306 Am Cst Wed Mar 8 2006

.discussion...

Early This Morning There Was A Developing Surface Low Over Kansas
With An Upper-level Trough Over The Desert Southwest. This System
Will Move To The East By Thursday Afternoon With The Surface Low
Moving Into Missouri...the Cold Front Approaching Western
Louisiana...and The Shortwave Over Eastern Oklahoma/texas. The 00z
Run Of The Eta Shows The Energy From The Shortwave Extending
Farther South Into Louisiana...but The Gfs Shows More Precip
Extending South To The Gulf Coast. We Will Continue To Show
Thunderstorms Likely Thursday With Most Of The Strong To Severe
Activity Remaining To The North Of Our Pcwa. Southerly Flow Is
Expected To Return Rapidly Behind The Thursday Nights Frontal
Passage. This Will Lead To At Least A Small Chance Of
Showers/thunderstorms Into Next Week. Temps May Drop A Little
Thursday And Thursday Night...but Otherwise Will Remain
Significantly Above Average Through Early Next Week.

&&

.preliminary Point Temps/pops...
Mcb 77 60 74 55 / 0 20 70 30
Btr 80 63 77 55 / 0 20 70 20
Msy 78 64 78 61 / 0 10 60 20
Gpt 73 59 74 59 / 0 10 60 40

&&

[ROLLTIDE]

Area Forecast Discussion
000
FXUS64 KLIX 090854
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
254 AM CST THU MAR 9 2006

.DISCUSSION...

EARLY THIS MORNING THERE WAS A SURFACE LOW OVER NORTH TEXAS WITH
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING INTO WEST TEXAS. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TO THE EAST OF THIS SYSTEM WAS TIGHTENING...LEADING TO
WINDS INCREASING ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. OVER LAND WINDS
ARE LIKELY TO REACH 25 TO 30 MPH OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...
MAINLY SOUTH OF BATON ROUGE AND LAKES PONTCHARTRAIN/MAUREPAS...
THEREFORE A WIND ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH
RAPIDLY OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. WINDS ALSO WILL BE
HIGH ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS...THUS SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT.

THE OTHER SIGNIFICANT CONCERN WITH THIS SYSTEM IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE SHOULD PASS
NORTH OF OUR AREA...MOVING FROM EAST TEXAS TO NORTH MISSISSIPPI
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND GOING FROM A NEUTRAL TO NEGATIVE
TILT IN THE PROCESS. NEAR BATON ROUGE THE GFS SHOWS 0-3KM SR
HELICITY VALUES OF 450-500...WITH THE NAM 600-625. VALUES DROP OFF
SOUTH TOWARD THE GULF COAST. THIS COUPLED WITH AMPLE INSTABILITY
AND A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET OF 60-75 KNOTS WILL LEAD TO A
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE EASTWARD-MOVING
SQUALL LINE THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY.
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...HAIL...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AND AMPLE MOISTURE
WILL LINGER IN THE AREA. THUS THERE WILL BE A GOOD CHANCE FOR FOG.
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RETURN AND CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY WITH
AMPLE MOISTURE AND WEAK DISTURBANCES ALOFT...LEADING TO AT LEAST A
SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. TEMPS ALSO WILL
CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THE NEXT FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA BEHIND IT.


&&

[ROLLTIDE]

Area Forecast Discussion
000
FXUS64 KLIX 101250
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
650 AM CST FRI MAR 10 2006

.UPDATE...AREAS OF DENSE FOG HAVE BECOME MORE ENHANCED AND
WIDESPREAD THIS MORNING ACROSS SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI LEADING INTO
EAST-CENTRAL LOUISIANA. HAVE THEREFORE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY
FOR THE AFFECTED AREAS. THE FOG SHOULD BEGIN TO LIFT WITHIN A FEW
HOURS AFTER DAYBREAK.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS ARE
IMPACTING PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING MAINLY ACROSS
SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI LEADING INTO EAST-CENTRAL LOUISIANA. THE FOG
SHOULD LIFT LATER THIS MORNING BUT CLOUD COVER APPEARS TO BE ON
THE INCREASE ACROSS ALL THE AREA LATER TODAY AS WEAK DISTURBANCES
ALOFT MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL ALSO PROVIDE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF RAIN AND THUNDER TODAY AND TONIGHT.

OVERALL...HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS
TODAY AND BUILD TOWARD THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD BY SAT. THE GRADIENT
AT THE SURFACE ALSO LOOKS TO BECOME ENHANCED AGAIN WITH WARM
SOUTHERLY AIR FILTERING INTO THE REGION ALLOWING TEMPS TO CLIMB
QUITE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL INTO NEXT WEEK. WITH SOUTHWEST
FLOW ESTABLISHED ALOFT...WEAK PASSING DISTURBANCES WILL ALSO
PROVIDE SOME CHANCE OF RAIN AND POSSIBLY THUNDER. WITH DEW POINTS
INCREASING AS WELL...PATCHY FOG MAY AFFECT PARTS OF THE AREA OVER
THE NEXT FEW NIGHTS. THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS STILL PROGGED TO
SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION LATE MON AND INTO TUE WITH PERHAPS A
CLEARING AND COOLING TREND BEGINNING MID WEEK.
&&

.MARINE...WHILE THE GRADIENT HAS WEAKENED FOR NOW ALLOWING WINDS
OVER THE GULF WATERS TO DIMINISH...A DEEP SWELL TRAIN REMAINS IN
PLACE SUPPORTED BY A BROAD FETCH OVER THE MIDDLE GULF. THIS IS
ALLOWING SEAS BEYOND THE NEAR SHORE RANGE TO RUN WELL ABOVE 7
FEET. WITH THE GRADIENT EXPECTED TO INCREASE AGAIN...THIS SWELL
TRAIN MAY INDEED LAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND PERIOD AND INTO NEXT
WEEK BEFORE THE NEXT COLD FRONT CAN OFFSET THE FETCH PATTERN.
THEREFORE...A NEW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS WILL BE
ISSUED THIS MORNING FOR THE GULF COASTAL WATERS AND PERSIST INTO
THE WEEKEND PERIOD.

[ROLLTIDE]

Saturday: Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Patchy fog before 9am. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a high around 82. Breezy, with a south wind between 10 and 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Saturday Night: Isolated showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low near 68. South wind between 10 and 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Sunday: Isolated showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high around 83. South wind between 10 and 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Sunday Night: Isolated showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 67. Chance of precipitation is 10%.

Monday: Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 80. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Monday Night: Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy and breezy, with a low around 58.

[ROLLTIDE]

000
Fxus64 Klix 110903
Afdlix

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans La
303 Am Cst Sat Mar 11 2006

.discussion...
Warm Moist Air Has Move Back Into The State As A Warm Front Was
Forced Northward. The Next Cold Front Is Due Into The Area Monday
Night. Upper Trough And Forcing Look Strong Enough To Move The
Front Through The State But As The Main Sfc Low Move Quickly
Ne...the Front Should Slow Its Forward Progress As It Begins To
Move Into Our Area. The Gfs Doesn`t Show This As Well As The Eta
But A Solution On Timing Somewhere In Between The Two Models May
Be What Will Occur. Will Not Change Any Temporal Grids Attm But
Will Monitor Timing As Cold Front May Move Through The Area During
The Daylight Hours Of Tuesday Morning.

Can`t Find Any Reason To Sound Alarms Of Severity Attm Either. But
Since The Fropa Is Still Three Days Away Will Simply Watch Future
Mod Solutions.

[ROLLTIDE]

000
Fxus64 Klix 120939
Afdlix

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans La
339 Am Cst Sun Mar 12 2006

.discussion...
Cold Front Will Begin Its Formation Over The Foothills Of The
Rockies Today And Move Se Quickly At First. As The Sfc Low Begins
To Lift Out To The Ne...the Front Should Slow A Little As It Moves
Through The Area Monday Night. Agreement From The Gfs And Eta On
Timing Is Getting Much Better. Forecast Already Depicts The Cold
Front Moving Through The Area Around Midnight Monday Night And
Will Leave This Variable Alone. As A Matter Of Fact...i Couldn`t
Find Anything To Change Until The Cold Front Moves In. With A
Stagnant Pattern...model Numbers Will Be Hard To Beat By Too Much.
Going Forecast Looks Excellent And Will Therefore Not Touch
Anything Until Fourth Period(monday Night) And Then Only Minor
Changes.

[ROLLTIDE]

Area Forecast Discussion
000
FXUS64 KLIX 130808
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
208 AM CST MON MAR 13 2006

.DISCUSSION...THE PRIMARY FOCUS OF THIS FORECAST PACKAGE INVOLVES
UPCOMING RAIN CHANCES FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE MODELS APPEAR
FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE ADVERTISED COLD FRONT
OUT OF THE PLAINS STATES SWEEPING THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN 0Z AND
06Z TONIGHT. CONVECTION THOUGH LOOKS TO BEGIN THIS AFTERNOON WITH
THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES OCCURRING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA. BY THIS EVENING...SLIGHTLY HIGHER RAIN CHANCES
SHOULD BE IN STORE FOR LOWER SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND COASTAL
MISSISSIPPI. WHILE THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SOME STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT...THE BETTER DYNAMICS AND
FORCING LOOK TO REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE CWA/PWA. GOOD INSTABILITY
AND MODERATE SHEAR THOUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST WILL STILL
PROVIDE SOME RISK OF STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. THE COLD FRONT LOOKS
TO EXIT THE REGION RAPIDLY BY TUE WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
BUILDING ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. SLIGHTLY COOLER AND
DRIER AIR SETTLES IN FOR TUE AND WED BEFORE BEFORE SOUTHERLY FLOW
RETURNS THU AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION THU AND THU NIGHT.
&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE TUE AND WED
BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT WITH THE WIND FIELD AND
PRESSURE GRADIENT AT THE SURFACE INCREASING OUT OF THE NORTH. THE
GRADIENT DOES NOT LOOK TO WEAKEN MUCH BY THU AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS BEFORE QUICKLY TURNING BACK TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE NEXT FRONT BY FRI.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 79 51 67 40 / 50 40 10 0
BTR 81 52 68 42 / 50 40 10 0
MSY 82 57 69 51 / 40 50 10 0
GPT 77 55 69 44 / 40 50 10 0
&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&