New Orleans Local Weather thread

[astroswin22]

storms moving their way

[dkmac]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans La
402 Am Cdt Thu Aug 21 2008

.discussion...

Early This Morning Tropical Storm Fay Was Just Off The
Northeastern Coast Of Florida. An Upper-level Low Was Over The
Central Plains States With Generally Southwesterly Flow Aloft Over
The Lower Mississippi Valley. As Fay Is Expected To Drift Back
Onshore Into Northern Florida And The Upper Low Over The Plains
Weakens Somewhat...our Area Again Will See Scattered Convection
Across The Area Today...but Diminishing On Friday. Greater
Thunderstorm Activity Again Will Be To The West/northwest Of Our
Area...closer To The Upper Low/trough.

Upper-level Ridging That Is Expected To Spread Across The
Central Plains/mid-mississippi Valley Into The Mid-atlantic States
Will Help To Keep Fay Farther South. With The Shift Southward Of
The Forecast Track For Fay In The Extended...this Could Pose
More Problems For Us In The Longer Term. Fay Is Now Expected To
Move Into Southeastern/coastal Mississippi By Monday Morning...and
Then Stall. Although Only A Remnant Low By This Point...this Would
Increase Rain Chances And Totals For The Area For The Beginning Of
Next Week. 25

.aviation...
Vfr Conditions Are Expected To Prevail Through Most Of The Taf
Period. Mvfr Vsbys Due To Fog Will Prevail Through The Early Morning
Hours At Mcb But Should Improve To Vfr By 15z. Btr May Also
Experience A Few Hours Of Mvfr Vsbys Due To Fog. There Will Be A
Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms During The Afternoon Hours
Across The Area...but Likelihood Of Thunderstorms At Any Given Site
Remains Low Enough That No Mention Has Been Made In The Tafs. 95

.marine...

A Weak Surface Ridge Will Remain In Place Over The Coastal Waters
Through This Evening. Light Winds And Fairly Calm Seas Can Be
Expected. Though Tropical Storm Fay Is Expected To Remain Inland...
Outer Rain Bands May Affect The Coastal Waters Over The Weekend And
Into The First Part Of Next Week. These Rain Bands Will Result In
Gusty Winds And Locally Higher Seas. In Addition...swells May Cause
Seas To Build To Small Craft Criteria By Sunday. Conditions Should
Begin To Improve Monday Afternoon And Tuesday. 95

[dkmac]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans La
346 Am Cdt Fri Aug 22 2008

.discussion...

Early This Morning Tropical Storm Fay Generally Was Moving To The
West Across Northern Florida. Overall Ridging From The Central
Plains To The Mid-atlantic States Will Help To Keep Fay On A Path
Along The Gulf Coast For The Next Few Days. The Current Forecast
Is A Little Faster...and Has Fay Moving Into Southeastern
Mississippi On Sunday As It Weakens To A Tropical Depression.
Ahead Of This...rain Chances Will Be Lower Over Our Area Through
Early Saturday. On Sunday As Fay Moves Into The Area...we Can
Expect Areas Of Heavy Rainfall Over Portions Of South-
Central/coastal Mississippi And Possibly Some Portions Of Extreme
East-central Louisiana. In Addition...winds Will Be Strong And
Gusty Over The Area. This Pattern Should Continue Into Monday
Before The Remnants Of Fay Are Expected To Turn Toward The
North/northeast And Begin To Move Away From Our Area Due To A
Weakness Forming In The Ridging Aloft.

Generally Fair Weather Is Expected In The Middle Of Next Week. The
Next Frontal System Is Expected To Begin To Push Southward Into
Northern Mississippi And Louisiana Thursday Night And Friday. 25

.aviation...
Vfr Conditions Should Prevail Through Most Of The Taf Period...the
Exceptions Being A Few Hours Of Mvfr Vsbys Possible At Kmcb And
Kbtr. Any Convection During The Afternoon Hours Should Be Isolated
And Chances Are Low Enough For Any Given Station To Omit Mention In
The Current Package. Winds Will Generally Be North Or Northeast Less
Than 10 Kts. 95

.marine...
An Area Of High Pressure Centered Over The Northern Gulf Of Mexico
Will Weaken And Shift Westward Tonight As Tropical Storm Fay Begins
To Move Into Or Close To The Northeastern Gulf. Winds And Seas Will
Slowly Increase As Fay Moves Westward. Though The Current Forecast
Track Does Not Take Fay Through The Gulf Waters Of Mississippi Or
Southeastern Louisiana...outer Rain Bands May Affect The Coastal
Waters Causing Gusty Winds And Higher Seas. Small Craft Advisories
Will Likely Be Necessary As Early As Saturday. Held Off On Putting
Out The Advisory Since Confidence In The Onset Time Is Not High.
Conditions Should Begin To Improve By Monday As Fay Pulls Farther
Away From The Coastal Waters. 95

[ROLLTIDE]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans La
352 Pm Cdt Fri Aug 22 2008

.short Term...
One More Day Of Relative Dry Conditions Before Deteriorating Trend
Sets In From East To West Late Saturday Into Sunday And Monday As
Tropical Storm Fay Treks Westward Along I-10 Corridor. In Coordination
With Kmob Will Issue A Flash Flood Watch For Harrison And Jackson
Counties To Blend With Their Interior Counties. In Time...more
Counties/parishes May Be Added Farther West But This Should Be
After 36 Hours. There Has Been Some Evidence Of Cloud Erosion
Along The Western Periphery That May Continue Into Tomorrow...but
At Some Point The Bulk Of Central Moisture Around Fay Will Get
Close Enough To Saturate The Column With A Warm Rain Process.
Rainfall Amounts Could Become Quite Healthy In Southeast
Mississippi And Particularly Into South Alabama. In The Flood
Watch Area...amounts Of 3-4 Inches With Locally Higher To 6 Inches
Are Possible From Saturday Night Through Tuesday Morning.

.long Term...
Monday Could Be An Improving Trend If Fay Does Indeed Get Lifted
Northeast Ahead Of The Next System. Will Indicate 40 Percent
Areawide At This Time But Some Adjustments May Be Needed If Fay
Slows Down Or Stalls...which Is Still A Viable Option. The
Remainder Of The Extended Period Is Left Nearly Unchanged And
Remains Dependent On Future Fate Of Fay.

[Sean]

It would be nice if we got some weather from Fay...I'm not concerned with winds, but, we could use some rain. Want nothing like Florida, but, a couple of inches would do us some good.

[dkmac]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans La
428 Am Cdt Sat Aug 23 2008

.discussion...

He Main Concern For The Forecast Is Tropical Storm Fay. Fay Is
Forecast To Move Along The Mississippi Coast And Along The North
Shore Of Lake Pontchartrain To Near Baton Rouge Monday Night
Before Turning To The North-northeast Into Mississippi. Fay Is
Expected To Remain A Tropical Storm Into Sunday And Weaken Early
Monday Down To A Depression. This Will Bring Tropical Storm
Warnings To The Mississippi Coast And Spread A Tropical Storm
Watch Through New Orleans Into The Coastal Waters West Of The
Mississippi River. As Fay Moves To The West Over The Next Few
Days...heavy Rains Are Expected To Accompany The Storm...with The
Highest Rain Totals Generally Across The Mississippi Coast Through
Portions Of East-central Louisiana And South-central Mississippi.
In The Flood Watch Area We Are Expecting Amounts Of 3-4 Inches
With Locally Higher Amounts To 6 Inches. The Flash Flood Watch May
Need To Be Spread Eastward Into Portions Of Southwest Mississippi
And The North Shore Of Lake Pontchartrain Later Today. After Fay
Turns To The North-northeast And Moves Into Mississippi...there
Should Be A Clearing For Our Area For The Middle Part Of The Week.

.aviation...

Generally Fair Weather Is Expected This Morning...with Winds
Picking At Gpt And Msy From The North By This Afternoon. The Best
Chance For Thunderstorms Will Be Near Gpt.

[dkmac]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans La
342 Am Cdt Sun Aug 24 2008

.short Term...

Early This Morning Tropical Depression Fay Was Moving Westward
Across The Alabama/mississippi Border. Fay Was Interacting With An
Upper-level Low That Was Dropping Down The Mississippi Valley.
This Is Entraining Dry Air Into The Low And Helping To Limit
Precip Across Most Of The Southern Half Of Our Pcwa. In Addition
The Dry Air Will Help Create The Potential For Stronger Storms
Across The Area. Upper-level Ridging From The Rockies Eastward
Into The Ohio Valley Will Help To Keep The Remnants Of Fay To The
South For The Next Day Or Two...pushing It Toward Extreme
Southwest Mississippi...possibly A Little Into Central Louisiana.
By Tuesday The Remnants Are Expected To Eject To The Northeast And
Pull The Heaviest Precip Out Of The Area. However...over The Next
Few Days We Could See 4 To 6 Inches Of Precip With Locally Higher
Amounts Across Much Of Southern Mississippi Through The Greater
New Orleans Area. Thus The Flash Flood Watch Will Continue Through
Monday Night.

.long Term...

For The Middle Of The Week...precip Chances Should Be Diminishing
Behind The Remnants Of Fay. Toward The Weekend The Gfs Shows A
Frontal Boundary Dropping Into The Lower Mississippi
Valley...increasing Rain Chances Again.

.aviation...

A Broad Rain Shield Associated With The Remnants Of Tropical
Storm Fay Will Spread Across The Lower Mississippi Valley And
Southern Mississippi Today. This Will Keep Ceilings And
Visibilities Generally In The Mvfr Category Through Much Of The
Day. In Addition...winds Will Be Gusty Through The Area.

.marine...

Strong Flow Associated With The Remnants Of Tropical Storm Fay
Will Keep Winds Around 20 To 25 Knots Across The Coastal Waters
Into Monday.

&&

[dkmac]

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service New Orleans La
600 Am Cdt Sun Aug 24 2008

Gmz530-550-555-570-575-laz034>040-046>050-056>070-msz068>071-077-
080>082-241700-
Pascagoula To Sw Pass Mississippi River Out 20 Nm-
Pascagoula To Sw Pass Mississippi River 20-60 Nm Out-
Sw Pass Mississippi River To Atchafalaya River Out 20 Nm-
Sw Pass Mississippi River To Atchafalaya River 20-60 Nm Out-amite-
Ascension-assumption-east Baton Rouge-east Feliciana-han****-
Harrison-iberville-jackson-lakes Pontchartrain And Maurepas-
Livingston-lower Jefferson-lower Lafourche-lower Plaquemines-
Lower St Bernard-lower Terrebonne-orleans-pearl River-pike-
Pointe Coupee-st Charles-st Helena-st James-st John The Baptist-
St Tammany-tangipahoa-upper Jefferson-upper Lafourche-
Upper Plaquemines-upper St Bernard-upper Terrebonne-walthall-
Washington-west Baton Rouge-west Feliciana-wilkinson-
600 Am Cdt Sun Aug 24 2008

This Hazardous Weather Outlook Is For Portions Of The Coastal Waters
Of Southeast Louisiana And South Mississippi...southeast Louisiana
And South Mississippi.

.day One...today And Tonight

Thunderstorms...
Isolated To Scattered Embedded Thunderstorms Are Expected Within The
Rain Shield Across The Area Today. Some Of The Stronger Storms May
Have Gusty Winds Up To 40 Mph.

Heavy Rain...
A Flash Flood Watch Is In Effect For Coastal And Southwest
Mississippi And Those Areas Of Southeast Louisiana Generally To The
East Of Interstate 55. Showers And Thunderstorms Associated With
The Remnants Of Tropical Storm Fay Will Become More Widespread Today.
Rain Totals Of 4 To 6 Inches...with Locally Higher Amounts...are
Possible Before The Rain Tapers Off Monday Night.

Marine...
A Small Craft Advisory Is In Effect For The Gulf Coastal Waters From
The Atchafalaya River To Pascagoula Mississippi And Out 60 Nm
And For The Tidal Lakes. Winds Are Forecast To Be 20 To 30 Knots
With Seas Building Up To 7 To 9 Feet In The Gulf Coastal Waters.

.days Two Through Seven...monday Through Saturday

Heavy Rain...
The Flash Flood Watch Will Remain In Effect Through Monday. Rainfall
Totals Of 4 To 6 Inches...with Locally Higher Amounts...are Possible
Across South Mississippi And Southeast Louisiana East Of I-55
Through Monday Night.

Marine...
A Small Craft Advisory Will Remain In Effect Through Monday Afternoon
For Winds Of 20 To 30 Knots And Seas Up To 7 To 9 Feet.

.spotter Information Statement...
Spotter Activation May Be Required Due To The Threat For Heavy
Rainfall As The Remnants Of Tropical Storm Fay Move Across The Area.

[dkmac]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans La
343 Pm Cdt Sun Aug 24 2008

.synopsis...
Tropical Depression Fay`s Remnants Currently Centered Over
Southeast Mississippi. Strong Winds Developed Over Lakes
Pontchartrain And Maurepas...along With Southern Shore Of Lake
Pontchartrain.

&&

.short Term...
Forecast Trends Remain On Track With T.d. Fay Pushing West Toward
The Louisiana/mississippi Border Around Wilkinson County About 03z
This Evening. Convection Will Continue Over Sw Mississippi And
East Central Louisiana...necessitating The Extension Of The Flash
Flood Watch Into That Region. With Storm Totals For Some Areas
Already Over 2.0 Inches Today...it Is Entirely Possible To
Accumulate 4 To 6 Inches...with Locally Heavier Amounts. Airmass
Over The Mississippi Gulf Coast Will More Unstable Tonight And
Possibly Early Monday...due To Influx Of Drier Air Into That
Region Around Ciruclation Of "fay". As A Result...thunderstorm
Activity Might Be More Probable For That Area. With Upper Level
High Pressure From The Rockies To The Great Lakes Region And Ohio
River Valley...t.d. Fay Will Stall Over This Same Region...cranking
Rainfall Into Tuesday. By Tuesday Night...will See Some Gradual
Decrease In Precipitation...as The System Finally Begins To Pull
Ne Out Of Our P/cwa.

.long Term...

Rain Chances Will Decrease Along With Cloudiness In The Wake Of
"fay". Expect That Temps And Rainfall Will Become More Seasonal
Until Another Cold Front Pushes Toward The Region From The Plains
States Bringing The Chance Of Rain For The Weekend Into Early Next
Week.

&&

.aviation...

Tropical Depression Fay Will Continue To Impact All Terminals
Through Tomorrow. Strong Westerly Winds Of 15 To 25 Knots Can Be
Expected Through Tonight...with A Slight Decrease Into The 10 To 20
Knot Range Tomorrow. Low Ceilings And Rain Will Also Lead To
Prevailing Ifr Conditions...with Periods Of Mvfr Conditions Through
Tomorrow.

&&

.marine...

Tropical Depression Fay Will Continue To Linger Across Southeast
Louisiana And Southern Mississippi Through Tomorrow. Strong
Westerly Winds Of 25 To 35 Knots Will Continue To Impact The Region
Through Monday As A Tight Pressure Gradient Between The Low And A
Ridge Of High Pressure To The South Remains In Place. Seas Will
Also Remain High As Winds And A Swell Train Work In Conjunction To
Raise Wave Heights To 8 To 10 Feet Tonight And Tomorrow. The
Tropical System Will Pull North And Away From The Area On
Tuesday...allowing For A Decrease In Winds And Seas Tuesday Into
Wednesday. High Pressure Will Build Over The Area For The End Of
The Week...allowing For A Return To More Typical Sea State
Conditions.

[dkmac]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans La
412 Am Cdt Mon Aug 25 2008

.short Term...
Surface Based Circulation Of Tropical Storm Fay Was Over Mccomb
Mississippi Around Midnight And Appears To Be Meandering Between
Mccomb And Hattiesburg At This Time. Meanwhile The Upper Level
Circulation Has Clearly Lifted Northeast Over Meridian As
Evidenced In Water Vapor Loop. Much Of The Deep Layered Moisture
Is Along Frontogenetic Convergence Boundary Associated With Upper
Low Extending North-south Across Western Alabama Into The North
Gulf Off The Louisiana Coast. The Mississippi Gulf Coast Is Under
This Feature And Also Contending With Warm Rain Process With
Surface Low Circulation. Result Has Been A Very Efficient Rain
Dynamics With Pascagoula Receiving 3.o4 Inches Since 1 Am. An
Urban And Small Stream Flood Advisory Is In Effect For That Area
And May Need Upgrading To Flood Warning If Rains Persist.
Overall...drier Air Appears To Be Entering The Area From The West
As Vad Wind Profiles Show Deep Layered Westerlies Through 24kft.
Will Take This Notion To Lower Pops Down To 50 Percent For All But
Mississippi Coast And Much Of The Gulf Waters. Given The
Efficiency Of The Airmass...proximity Of Surface Circulation And
Minimal Daytime Heating Needed For Re-development...will Maintain
Flash Flood Watch For Entire Area As Much Of The Watch Area Has
Received A Good Soaking Past 24 Hours. Aside From Maintaining
Higher Pops Along Mississippi Coast Tonight...will Indicate An
Improving Trend Elsewhere Tonight And Into Tuesday. Temperatures
Could Be Tricky And Dependent On Cloud Cover. Temperatures Are
Starting In The Mid 70s This Morning So Only 5 Degrees Needed To
Reach 80 Given A Few Breaks Throughout The Day. Much Of The Area
Should Reach The Mid 80s Tuesday If Clouds Break As Anticipated. 24

.long Term...
Made No Big Changes To Extended Portion As Fay Should Eventually
Fill And Lift Out Of The Region By Wednesday. Weak High Pressure
Should Settle Over The Gulf South Followed By A Frontal Boundary
Dropping Through The Plains States Towards The Gulf States By
Sunday. Will Be Monitoring The Caribbean Sea Developing System
With Great Intent As Some Of The Tropical Models Show Potential Of
Mature Tropical Cyclone Possibly Reaching The Southeast Gulf Of
Mexico In 5 To 7 Days. This Is A Long Way Out Yet But Bears
Watching Leading Into The Labor Day Weekend. 24

&&

.aviation...
Tropical Depression Fay Will Continue To Impact All Terminals
Through Tonight. Sustained Winds Are Expected To Remain In The 10 To
15 Knot Range With Gusts Of Up To 20 Knots...mainly At Msy
And Gpt. Mvfr Cigs And Vsbys Will Prevail Through The Period.
Conditions May Deteriorate Further In Some Of The Heavier Rain
Showers And Thunderstorms Over Southern Mississippi And Extreme
Southeast La. 17

.marine...
Bands Of Strong Showers And Thunderstorms Will Continue To Move
Across The Coastal Waters Today. Winds Associated With This Activity
Will Increase To 25 Knots With Gusts To 35 Knots. Isolated Water
Spouts Are Also Possible Especially Over Waters East Of The
Mississippi River.

Tropical Depression Fay Will Continue To Linger Across The North
Central Gulf Coast Region Through Tonight. Winds Associated With The
Depression Will Slowly Decrease Late Tonight. As The Remnants Of Fay
Are Pulled Northeastward Out Of The Area Tuesday...winds And Seas
Will Decrease Further. High Pressure Will Build Into The Area For
The End Of The Week...allowing For A Return To More Typical Late
August Conditions. 17

[ROLLTIDE]

FXUS64 KLIX 260928
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
428 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2008

.SHORT TERM...
RUNNING A TAD LATE WORKING ON EXTRACURRICULAR ACTIVITY REGARDING
GUSTAV AND THE PROSPECTS OR THE NORTH GULF OF MEXICO. MORE ON THAT
IN EXTENDED. MEANWHILE...TRAILING TROUGH FROM REMNANTS OF FAY...NOW OVER
NORTHWEST ALABAMA NEAR TUSCALOOSA...IS SERVING AS A COOL FRONT OF
SORTS WITH DRIER AIR CONTINUING THROUGH INFILTRATE THE AREA ON A
NORTHWEST WIND. WILL INDICATE 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY ON DAYTIME HEATING THIS AFTERNOON. THE NEXT FEW DAYS SHOULD
BE RELATIVELY DRY AND HOT...WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND NORMAL
THROUGH THURSDAY. 24

.LONG TERM...
THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND SHOULD BE NICE FOR THE MOST PART LOCALLY BUT
WITH A DEGREE OF UNEASINESS AS HURRICANE GUSTAV APPEARS POISED TO
MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEAST GULF BY WAY OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL ON
SUNDAY. THE FORECAST PERIOD BEYOND MONDAY WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT
ON FUTURE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF GUSTAV. CLIMATOLOGICALLY...WE ARE
NEARING THE PEAK OF THE SEASON...WHICH IS SEPTEMBER 10TH. THE
FIRST WEEK OF SEPTEMBER SHOWS 10 NAMED STORMS DIRECTLY IMPACTING
OUR FORECAST AREA SINCE 1851. CONDITIONS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO
LOOK FAVORABLE FOR MAINTAINING HURRICANE INTENSITY THROUGH THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL WHERE THE HIGHEST HEAT CONTENT IS FOUND. AN EDDY
OF VERY WARM WATERS RESIDES AROUND 25N 90W BUT WATER HEAT CONTENT
AND DEPTH REALLY FALL OFF NORTH OF 27N...WHICH MAY WORK IN
SOMEONE`S FAVOR WHEREVER GUSTAV ULTIMATELY TREKS. DEEP LAYERED
WIND PROFILES OVER THE SYSTEM WOULD SUPPORT MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS
IN THE CATEGORY 3 RANGE...AND A FEW OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
INTENSITY MODELS DO RAMP INTENSITY OF GUSTAV INTO LOW END CATEGORY
5 THOUGH A MAJORITY OF THE MODELS LEVEL OFF IN THE LOW END
CATEGORY 3...WHICH LOCAL RESEARCH SUPPORTS. HOPE THE ADDED
INFORMATION WAS WORTH THE TARDINESS. TIME WILL TELL IF WE MAY BE
FACED WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF DESTINY ALONG OUR SHORES. CLOSE
ATTENTION TO THIS SYSTEM WILL BE PRUDENT OVER THE LABOR DAY
WEEKEND. 24

&&

.AVIATION...
LOW CLOUD DECKS WILL REMAIN FOR A WHILE THIS MORNING FROM SW MISS TO
SLIDELL AND OVER THE COAST OF MISS. MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN FOR SEVERAL HOURS THIS MORNING AT THE MCB AND GPT TERMINALS
BUT WILL GRADUALLY BREAK THESE CEILINGS BY NOON. LINEAR CONVECTION
SHOULD FORM FROM WEST TO EAST EITHER NEAR OR OVER THE MSY TERMINAL
TODAY BRINING THE POSSIBILITY OF TS IN THAT AREA. ALL TERMINALS
SHOULD BREAK OUT OF INSTRUMENT NAVIGATION RELIANCE BY WED. 17

.MARINE...
A WAKE TROUGH LEFT OVER FROM THE REMNANTS OF FAY CONTINUES TO
AGGRAVATE CONDITIONS OVER THE OUTER GULF WATERS EAST OF THE MISS
RIVER. THE ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH TODAY
AS THE TROUGH WEAKENS AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
BE HIGHER IN AND AROUND AREAS OF SH/TS. THE LINE OF CONVECTION
OFFSHORE THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TODAY WITH STABILITY
INCREASING OVER THE GULF WATERS. AS INSTABILITY TAKES HOLD
ONSHORE...THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO RELOCATED INLAND SOMEWHERE NEAR
LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AROUND NOON. 17

&&

[ROLLTIDE]

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
221 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2008

.DISCUSSION...

EARLY THIS AFTERNOON THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WERE
MOVING NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN TENNESSEE AND THE MID-
ATLANTIC STATES. DRIER AIR AND UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO
THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST AND LIMIT THE CHANCES FOR PRECIP
THROUGH MOST OF THE REST OF THE WEEK. THE BIGGEST CONCERN WILL BE
THE TRACK OF HURRICANE GUSTAV. GUSTAV WAS NEAR SOUTHERN HAITI AND
IS FORECAST TO MOVE JUST SOUTH OF CUBA TOWARD THE GULF OF MEXICO.
GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF SATURDAY
NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING. RIDGING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA
WERE HELPING TO KEEP GUSTAV ON A MORE WESTWARD TRACK. BASED ON THE
CURRENT FORECAST TRACK...GUSTAV WOULD BE THREATENING THE GULF
COAST ON TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY.

.AVIATION...

PATCHY LIGHT FOG IS POSSIBLE AT MSY...BTR...GPT...BTR WEDNESDAY
MORNING. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL.

.MARINE...

WINDS ARE SUBSIDING ACROSS THE GULF COASTAL WATERS...AND THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT NOON.

[dkmac]

Area forecast discussion
national weather service new orleans la
423 am cdt wed aug 27 2008

.short term...
A few showers and storms were devleoping along the coast and in
the vicinity of thibodaux early this morning along convergenge
axis that trails the remant low of fay...currently moving into the
carolinas. Will indicate 20 percent chance thunderstorms today as
dewpoints bulk up to normal levels and onshore flow returns. It
has been tough beating gfs temperatures so went close to guidance
for today and thursday. 24

.long term...
Near normal temperatures and rain chances seem in order through
the labor day weekend. Latest official nhc track and intensity
forecast for tropical storm gustav places the storm in the middle
gulf precariously south of the central louisiana coast by monday
morning. Have introduced deteriorating conditions for all of the
forecast office with the implication of lower daytime
temperatures...70-80 percent pops and ra+ weather element based on
track extrapolation...though the main message will be high
uncertainty that far out. The problem is the requirement of a
deterministic forecast for tuesday with a probablistic uncertainty
of tropical cyclone forecasting. Of course...changes will be
forthcoming as forecast track becomes more certain in time. 24

&&

.aviation...
Will keep vfr conditions for the next few days with only isolated ts
activity not expected to affect any terminals. 17

&&

.marine...
A wake trough left over from fay continues to exist over the outer
gulf waters. No flags will be raised for the next few days. Winds
and seas will be higher in and around areas of sh/ts. Marine
plans for the early part of next week should be made with tropical
storm gustav in mind. 17

[ROLLTIDE]

FXUS64 KLIX 270923
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
423 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2008

.SHORT TERM...
A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS WERE DEVLEOPING ALONG THE COAST AND IN
THE VICINITY OF THIBODAUX EARLY THIS MORNING ALONG CONVERGENGE
AXIS THAT TRAILS THE REMANT LOW OF FAY...CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE
CAROLINAS. WILL INDICATE 20 PERCENT CHANCE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AS
DEWPOINTS BULK UP TO NORMAL LEVELS AND ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS. IT
HAS BEEN TOUGH BEATING GFS TEMPERATURES SO WENT CLOSE TO GUIDANCE
FOR TODAY AND THURSDAY. 24

.LONG TERM...
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND RAIN CHANCES SEEM IN ORDER THROUGH
THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND. LATEST OFFICIAL NHC TRACK AND INTENSITY
FORECAST FOR TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV PLACES THE STORM IN THE MIDDLE
GULF PRECARIOUSLY SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL LOUISIANA COAST BY MONDAY
MORNING. HAVE INTRODUCED DETERIORATING CONDITIONS FOR ALL OF THE
FORECAST OFFICE WITH THE IMPLICATION OF LOWER DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES...70-80 PERCENT POPS AND RA+ WEATHER ELEMENT BASED ON
TRACK EXTRAPOLATION...THOUGH THE MAIN MESSAGE WILL BE HIGH
UNCERTAINTY THAT FAR OUT. THE PROBLEM IS THE REQUIREMENT OF A
DETERMINISTIC FORECAST FOR TUESDAY WITH A PROBABLISTIC UNCERTAINTY
OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECASTING. OF COURSE...CHANGES WILL BE
FORTHCOMING AS FORECAST TRACK BECOMES MORE CERTAIN IN TIME. 24

&&

.AVIATION...
WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH ONLY ISOLATED TS
ACTIVITY NOT EXPECTED TO AFFECT ANY TERMINALS. 17

&&

.MARINE...
A WAKE TROUGH LEFT OVER FROM FAY CONTINUES TO EXIST OVER THE OUTER
GULF WATERS. NO FLAGS WILL BE RAISED FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WINDS
AND SEAS WILL BE HIGHER IN AND AROUND AREAS OF SH/TS. MARINE
PLANS FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK SHOULD BE MADE WITH TROPICAL
STORM GUSTAV IN MIND. 17

&&

[ROLLTIDE]

Watches, Warnings & Advisories
Local weather forecast by "City, St" or zip code
One product issued by NWS for: Slidell LA
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Hazardous Weather Outlook
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
700 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2008

GMZ530-550-555-570-575-LAZ034>040-046>050-056>070-MSZ068>071-077-
080>082-281100-
LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS-
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM-POINTE COUPEE-WEST FELICIANA-
EAST FELICIANA-ST. HELENA-TANGIPAHOA-WASHINGTON-ST. TAMMANY-
IBERVILLE-WEST BATON ROUGE-EAST BATON ROUGE-ASCENSION-LIVINGSTON-
ASSUMPTION-ST. JAMES-ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST-UPPER LAFOURCHE-
ST. CHARLES-UPPER JEFFERSON-ORLEANS-UPPER PLAQUEMINES-
UPPER ST. BERNARD-UPPER TERREBONNE-LOWER TERREBONNE-
LOWER LAFOURCHE-LOWER JEFFERSON-LOWER PLAQUEMINES-
LOWER ST. BERNARD-WILKINSON-AMITE-PIKE-WALTHALL-PEARL RIVER-
HAN****-HARRISON-JACKSON-
700 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF COASTAL WATERS
OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTH MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
EACH DAY...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE NOT EXPECTED.

DEPENDING ON THE FUTURE TRACK AND FORWARD SPEED OF TROPICAL STORM
GUSTAV...PART OR ALL OF THE OUTLOOK AREA MAY BE IMPACTED BY
DETERIORATING WEATHER CONDITIONS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...POSSIBLY
TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE CONDITIONS. AT THIS TIME...THERE IS A
DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE FUTURE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF
GUSTAV. REGARDLESS OF THE TRACK...MARINE ACTIVITIES WILL BE AFFECTED
BY INCREASING SWELLS AND WAVE ACTION ONCE GUSTAV MOVES INTO THE
SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
TIDES WILL LIKELY INCREASE BY MONDAY. RIP CURRENTS WILL ALSO
POSE A LIFE THREATENING SITUATION IN THE SURF FROM SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY AND SHOULD BE CONSIDERED DURING LABOR DAY BEACH ACTIVITIES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

CITIZENS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REVIEW THEIR HURRICANE ACTION PLANS
THIS LABOR DAY WEEKEND. THERE ARE SEVERAL HURRICANE PREPAREDNESS
BROCHURES AND BOOKLETS THAT CAN BE OBTAINED AT LOCAL RETAIL
STORES...SOME BANKS...AND DO-IT-YOURSELF RETAIL CENTERS. FORMULATE
A PLAN AND CONSIDER MAPPING AN EVACUATION ROUTE AND ALTERNATE
ROUTES IN THE EVENT ACTIONS ARE NEEDED...DEPENDING ON THE FUTURE
TRACK AND INTENSITY OF TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV CURRENTLY IN THE
CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR HAITI. REFER TO THE LATEST OFFICIAL ADVISORIES
ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FOR MORE DETAILS

[dkmac]

000
fxus64 klix 281002
afdlix

area forecast discussion
national weather service new orleans la
502 am cdt thu aug 28 2008

.discussion...
Running late awaiting latest nhc advisory on gustav as the wind
fields in the day 4 and day 5 time frames will show a cyclonic
wind field just off our shores west of the mississippi river. In
short...favorable weather with low day-to-day rain chances through
at least early sunday. Temperatures will be near normal through
sunday. The greatest uncertainty remains sunday through wednesday
as everything about this package hinges on the accuracy and
intensity of gustav. See latest advisory and gustav discussion
from nhc for more details pertaining to southward shift of track
in the near term. At this time...uncertainty prevails as a better
looking gustav near jamaica will have to mitigate a large ridge to
the immediate west of its current location. This may force
movement more southwest for a while before turning more northwest.
For the time and through helpful coordination with lch and mob
will adhere closely to nhc timing of gustav.

&&

.aviation...
A broad ridge of high pressure will remain parked over the area
through tonight. A strong inversion should set up during the early
morning hours today...as well as late tomorrow night. This
inversion will allow for some area of patchy light to moderate fog
to develop...especially at kmcb...kgpt...and kbtr. Visibilities may
drop into the ifr range at these locations for a brief period of
time. Otherwise...prevailing vfr conditions are expected at all
terminals.

&&

.marine...
Through saturday...a broad ridge of high pressure will dominate the
coastal waters with light winds and calm seas. Going beyond
saturday...the main question will be the ultimate path of tropical
storm gustav. At this time...the current track brings gustav
through the coastal waters as a strong hurricane...with an ultimate
landfall around vermillion bay sometime on tuesday. Have mentioned
hurricane conditions possible for the coastal zones sunday and
monday.

[ROLLTIDE]

FXUS64 KLIX 281002
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
502 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2008

.DISCUSSION...
RUNNING LATE AWAITING LATEST NHC ADVISORY ON GUSTAV AS THE WIND
FIELDS IN THE DAY 4 AND DAY 5 TIME FRAMES WILL SHOW A CYCLONIC
WIND FIELD JUST OFF OUR SHORES WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. IN
SHORT...FAVORABLE WEATHER WITH LOW DAY-TO-DAY RAIN CHANCES THROUGH
AT LEAST EARLY SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH
SUNDAY. THE GREATEST UNCERTAINTY REMAINS SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AS EVERYTHING ABOUT THIS PACKAGE HINGES ON THE ACCURACY AND
INTENSITY OF GUSTAV. SEE LATEST ADVISORY AND GUSTAV DISCUSSION
FROM NHC FOR MORE DETAILS PERTAINING TO SOUTHWARD SHIFT OF TRACK
IN THE NEAR TERM. AT THIS TIME...UNCERTAINTY PREVAILS AS A BETTER
LOOKING GUSTAV NEAR JAMAICA WILL HAVE TO MITIGATE A LARGE RIDGE TO
THE IMMEDIATE WEST OF ITS CURRENT LOCATION. THIS MAY FORCE
MOVEMENT MORE SOUTHWEST FOR A WHILE BEFORE TURNING MORE NORTHWEST.
FOR THE TIME AND THROUGH HELPFUL COORDINATION WITH LCH AND MOB
WILL ADHERE CLOSELY TO NHC TIMING OF GUSTAV.

&&

.AVIATION...
A BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN PARKED OVER THE AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT. A STRONG INVERSION SHOULD SET UP DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS TODAY...AS WELL AS LATE TOMORROW NIGHT. THIS
INVERSION WILL ALLOW FOR SOME AREA OF PATCHY LIGHT TO MODERATE FOG
TO DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY AT KMCB...KGPT...AND KBTR. VISIBILITIES MAY
DROP INTO THE IFR RANGE AT THESE LOCATIONS FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF
TIME. OTHERWISE...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL
TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
THROUGH SATURDAY...A BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE
COASTAL WATERS WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CALM SEAS. GOING BEYOND
SATURDAY...THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE THE ULTIMATE PATH OF TROPICAL
STORM GUSTAV. AT THIS TIME...THE CURRENT TRACK BRINGS GUSTAV
THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS AS A STRONG HURRICANE...WITH AN ULTIMATE
LANDFALL AROUND VERMILLION BAY SOMETIME ON TUESDAY. HAVE MENTIONED
HURRICANE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FOR THE COASTAL ZONES SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.

[ROLLTIDE]

000
FXUS64 KLIX 282054
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
354 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2008

.SHORT TERM...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A BROAD 1014MB HIGH OVER THE NORTH
GULF AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. IN ADDITION...COLD FRONT WAS
LOCATED OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
CURVATURE WAS LOCATED OVER GREAT BASIN AND ANOTHER OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF TO JUST EAST OF FLORIDA. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WAS NOTED FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO NORTHEAST GULF AND SUBSIDENCE WAS
OCCURRING OVER CENTRAL AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THESE
FEATURES WILL MAINTAIN A RELATIVELY DRY AND WARM FORECAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CURVATURE OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS WILL MIGRATE EAST OVER MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY
SUNDAY. AS A RESULT...SUBSIDENCE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE
FORECAST AREA WITH TEMPS ABOVE NORM AND RAIN CHANCES BELOW NORMS
THROUGH SUNDAY.

IT HAS BEEN A CHORE AND A HALF DISCERNING THE DIFFERENT TRACKS FOR
GUSTAV. PLEASE REFER TO TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV DISCUSSION (TCDAT2)
FOR MORE INFO AND DETAILS. WE WILL MAINTAIN HIGHER RAIN CHANCES
FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY. IN ADDITION...WILL
MAINTAIN LOWER DAY TIME TEMPS FOR THIS TIME. WILL MAINTAIN NEAR
NORM TEMPS AND RAIN CHANCES NEXT WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
AROUND BTR AND MCB. PATCHY LIGHT FOG IS POSSIBLE AT THE TERMINALS
AROUND SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. GUSTAV IS
FORECAST TO APPROACH THE LOUISIANA COAST AS A MAJOR HURRICANE ON
TUESDAY...THEREFORE HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE MENTIONED IN THE
COASTAL WATERS FORECAST.

[dkmac]

000
fxus64 klix 290915
afdlix

area forecast discussion
national weather service new orleans la
415 am cdt fri aug 29 2008

.short term...
A deep layered trough of low pressure is prominently indicated in
water vapor imagery extending from the spline of the
appalachians...to vicinity mobile bay and into the central gulf of
mexico. An upper level impulse is dropping into the base of the
trough across south mississippi and east louisiana which set off
isolated thunderstorms over the upper biloxi marsh and central
lake pontchartrain. Current trend is a weakening one as they move
southward. Perhaps this trough is strong enough to have an impact
on future track of gustav...but latest official advisory continues
to indicate a weakening trough in time. A noaa g-iv research
mission is scheduled later today to sample the gulf environment
and may lead to changes in some of the numerical model output once
this data source is ingested. Meanwhile...will continue to
indicate hot and relatively dry conditions today into monday with
temperature close to gfs in short-term. 24

.long term...
All periods beyond monday were adjusted slightly to fit the latest
tropical storm gustav advisory positions and wind fields.
Otherwise no big changes at this time as the day 4-7 periods will be
subject to several changes in subsequent advisory updates. 24

&&

.aviation...
A morning inversion will continue to bring patchy light fog and mvfr
conditions to kbtr and kmcb through around 14z...with a quick
improvement in visibilities expected after the inversion breaks. At
kmsy and kgpt...some isolated marine convection has developed this
morning. This convection should gernally stay away from the
terminals...and have not included it in the taf package. Vfr
conditions will prevail after 14z...with only isolated afternoon
convection expected. If convection impacts a terminal it will be
for a very brief period of time...and have thus left any mention of
convection out of the afternoon time period in the tafs. Once
again...a morning inversion should develop at kmcb and kbtr allowing
for fog and a return to mvfr visibilities after 06z tomorrow. 32

&&

.marine...
A broad ridge of high pressure across the central gulf coast will
continue to bring light winds and calm seas to the region through
tonight. Winds should begin to increase a bit over the weekend as
tropical storm gustav begins to move toward the gulf of mexico.
Going into next tuesday and wednesday...gustav is forecast to
approach the louisiana coast as a major hurricane. With this in
mind...have hurricane conditions possible in the latter periods of
the forecast package. 32

[ROLLTIDE]

000
fxus64 klix 290915
afdlix

area forecast discussion
national weather service new orleans la
415 am cdt fri aug 29 2008

.short term...
A deep layered trough of low pressure is prominently indicated in
water vapor imagery extending from the spline of the
appalachians...to vicinity mobile bay and into the central gulf of
mexico. An upper level impulse is dropping into the base of the
trough across south mississippi and east louisiana which set off
isolated thunderstorms over the upper biloxi marsh and central
lake pontchartrain. Current trend is a weakening one as they move
southward. Perhaps this trough is strong enough to have an impact
on future track of gustav...but latest official advisory continues
to indicate a weakening trough in time. A noaa g-iv research
mission is scheduled later today to sample the gulf environment
and may lead to changes in some of the numerical model output once
this data source is ingested. Meanwhile...will continue to
indicate hot and relatively dry conditions today into monday with
temperature close to gfs in short-term. 24

.long term...
All periods beyond monday were adjusted slightly to fit the latest
tropical storm gustav advisory positions and wind fields.
Otherwise no big changes at this time as the day 4-7 periods will be
subject to several changes in subsequent advisory updates. 24

&&

.aviation...
A morning inversion will continue to bring patchy light fog and mvfr
conditions to kbtr and kmcb through around 14z...with a quick
improvement in visibilities expected after the inversion breaks. At
kmsy and kgpt...some isolated marine convection has developed this
morning. This convection should gernally stay away from the
terminals...and have not included it in the taf package. Vfr
conditions will prevail after 14z...with only isolated afternoon
convection expected. If convection impacts a terminal it will be
for a very brief period of time...and have thus left any mention of
convection out of the afternoon time period in the tafs. Once
again...a morning inversion should develop at kmcb and kbtr allowing
for fog and a return to mvfr visibilities after 06z tomorrow. 32

&&

.marine...
A broad ridge of high pressure across the central gulf coast will
continue to bring light winds and calm seas to the region through
tonight. Winds should begin to increase a bit over the weekend as
tropical storm gustav begins to move toward the gulf of mexico.
Going into next tuesday and wednesday...gustav is forecast to
approach the louisiana coast as a major hurricane. With this in
mind...have hurricane conditions possible in the latter periods of
the forecast package. 32