New Orleans Local Weather thread

[ROLLTIDE]

rea Forecast Discussion

000
FXUS64 KLIX 280852
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
352 AM CDT FRI APR 28 2006

.DISCUSSION...
WHAT A DIFFERENCE 24 HOURS MAKES. MOVEMENT OF COLD FRONT FOR THE
WEEKEND WAS EXPECTED TO BE QUICK BUT THINGS ARE CHANGING. THE
CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN CAL WILL MOVE EAST AND OPEN INTO THE LONG
WAVE TROUGH BEGINNING TO DIG OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL BE THE
FIRST ROUND OF WEATHER. AS THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES...JET LEVEL
WINDS SPLIT AT 300MB CAUSING SOME STRONG DIVERGENT AIR TO EVOLVE
WHICH WILL THEN PRODUCE STRONG LIFT BELOW...HENCE WE HAVE ALL THE
DYNAMICS IN PLACE TO HELP ENHANCE TS DEVELOPMENT ONCE WE HAVE A
FORCING MECHANISM TO ATTACH THE SFC AIR TO THE MID LEVELS.

CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO FILL THE SKIES TODAY FIRST AT THE UPPER
LEVELS AND THEN GRADUALLY IN THE MID LEVELS. IF WE COULD KEEP THE
CLOUDY SKIES...SEVERE WEATHER AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WOULD NOT BE TOO
CONCERNING. BUT IT SEEMS THAT THE SUBSIDENCE AHEAD OF THE STRONG
LIFT INVOLVED WITH THE MAIN LINE OF TS THAT DEVELOP TO THE WEST WILL
PROVIDE ENOUGH SUBSIDENT WARMING WELL AHEAD OF THE LINE TO BREAK
US FREE OF CLOUDY SKIES FOR SOME TIME BETWEEN DAYBREAK AND NOON
SAT. IF WE GET ENOUGH HEATING...THINGS WILL GET TRICKY ACROSS THE
REGION WITH ALL VARIABLES POSSIBLE WITH SEVERE TS THAT DEVELOP. SO
WILL SIMPLY CALL FOR SINGLE CELL ISOLATED SEVERE ACTIVITY ACROSS
MAINLY THE EASTERN 2/3RDS OF THE AREA SATURDAY. WITH MOISTURE
LOADING MAXIMIZED...0-3KM HELICITY VALUES IN THE 350-400 RANGE DUE
TO STRONG LOW LEVEL JET AND VERTICAL SPEED SHEAR...ALONG WITH
STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AS COOLER AIR MOVES OVER THE AREA
ALOFT...TS THAT GO SEVERE WILL BE CAPABLE OF TORNADOES...DAMAGING
STRAIGHT LINE WINDS...LARGE HAIL...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL...AND
CONTINUOUS LIGHTNING.

THE ATMOSPHERE WILL GRADUALLY BECOME LESS CONDUCIVE FOR SEVERE TS
ESPECIALLY ONCE THE SQUALL LINE MOVES THROUGH AND TRANSFORM TO A
HEAVY RAINFALL ENVIRONMENT FROM WEST TO EAST. THIS SHOULD START
SATURDAY EVENING AND LAST WELL INTO SUNDAY MORNING. AS THE UPPER
LOW MOVES NE AND MERGES WITH THE LONG WAVE TROUGH...THE MAIN ROSBY
WAVE BEHIND THE SYSTEM WILL DIG SOUTHWARD CAUSING THE COLD FRONT
TO SLOW AND POSSIBLY STALL FOR SEVERAL HOURS UNTIL THE LONG WAVE
TROUGH CATCHES UP PUSHING ALL THE WEATHER EASTWARD. WHERE THIS
FRONTAL AXIS SLOWS OR STALLS WILL BE THE QUESTION. TRAINING TS MAY
BECOME A PROBLEM FOR SOME AREAS. TOO EARLY TO TELL WHERE THIS WILL
BE ATTM.

AFTER ALL THIS GETS BY US...ANOTHER SYSTEM DEVELOPS AND MOVES OUR
WAY. SO THINGS BECOME A LITTLE MORE PROGRESSIVE AND WET OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

ITS EITHER TOO MUCH OR TOO LITTLE LATELY BUT IT SHOULD PUT A GOOD
DENT IN THE DROUGHT VALUES.

&&

[ROLLTIDE]

Area Forecast Discussion
000
FXUS64 KLIX 010827
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
327 AM CDT MON MAY 1 2006

.DISCUSSION...SOME LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI THIS MORNING AS INDICATED BY IR IMAGERY. THESE CLOUDS
HAVE BEEN TRYING TO BUILD TOWARD THE GULF COAST IN THE PAST FEW
HOURS...BUT THEN DISSIPATE ONCE THEY REACH A LINGERING SHEAR AXIS
STRETCHING INTO THE COASTAL WATERS. THE GENERAL THINKING IS THESE
CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY ERODE AFTER SUNRISE WITH THE SHEAR AXIS
ALSO WEAKENING LATER TODAY. OTHERWISE...DRY AND TRANQUIL WEATHER
CONDITIONS LOOK TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE
WORK WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE EASTERN GULF WHILE A
WEAK RIDGE PATTERN ALOFT BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE
GFS REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST INDICATING A
BREAKDOWN IN THE RIDGE PATTERN BY FRI. THIS PRECEDES THE NEXT
UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PROJECTED TO SWEEP THROUGH
THE REGION SAT. THIS WILL ALSO BRING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN AND
THUNDER TO THE AREA SAT WITH A CLEARING TREND SLATED FOR SUN.
&&

[ROLLTIDE]

Fxus64 Klix 020835
Afdlix

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans La
335 Am Cdt Tue May 2 2006

.discussion...high Pressure At The Surface Continues To Move Into
The Eastern Gulf This Morning. The High Is Not Expected To Shift
Much For The Remaining Work Week Thereby Providing Relatively Warm
And Tranquil Conditions For The Area. In The Short Term...patchy
Fog Is Likely This Morning And Again Wed Morning With Southerly
Flow Becoming Entrenched Across The Area. In Addition...a Weak
Passing Wave Aloft May Provide A Slight Chance Of Rain For The
Eastern Half Of The Outlook Area Today Where Moisture Flow May Be
Slightly Better. Dry Conditions Then Look To Prevail Into Fri
Before The Surface High Moves Off Toward Theatlanticc Basin While
The Weak Ridge Pattern Aloft Flattens. Both The Gfs And Subsequent
Ecmwf Still Indicate The Next Front Moving Into The Region Fri
Although The Associated Upper Trough Now Looks To Shear Further
Toward The North Than Previously Indicated. This May Have The
Front Actually Slowing And Potentially Stalling Across The Gulf
Coast Region This Weekend If This Scenario Holds. Will Therefore
Have A Chance For Rain And Thunder Extending Through The Weekend
Period Before The Boundary Finally Weakens.
&&

[ROLLTIDE]

Fxus64 Klix 030835
Afdlix

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans La
335 Am Cdt Wed May 3 2006

.discussion...high Pressure At The Surface Continues To Prevail
Across The Eastern Gulf Region This Morning With Weak Ridging
Aloft Occupying The Southern Plains. Ir Sat Imagery Does Indicate
An Embedded Wave Aloft Moving Eastward Across The Southern Plains
But Looks To Remain Well North Of The Outlook Area. Will Still Go
With A Token 10 Percent Pop Today Given The Modest Instability And
Moisture In Place. Rain Chances Then Increase Slightly For Thu As
Pw`s Slowly Climb. The Timing For The Next Front To Settle Into
The Region Remains Consistent As The Boundary Approaches Fri With
Rain Chances Climbing Into The Scattered Cat. The Upper Flow
Pattern Does Not Appear Overly Conducive For A Clear Frontal
Passage As The Leading Shortwave Diverts Well To The North.
Embedded Waves Aloft Though In A Near Zonal Pattern Still Look To
Traverse Across The Area This Weekend As The Surface Boundary
Approaches The Gulf Coast Keeping Rain Chances In Play Through
Sun. Some Uncertainty Remains If The Front Will Move Into The
Northern Gulf Although The Gfs And Ecmwf Hint At This Scenario
Occurring. Still...the Guidance Does Hint At A Clearing And Drying
Trend For Next Week As The Boundary Weakens And High Pressure
Returns To The Region.

[ROLLTIDE]

000
Fxus64 Klix 040816
Afdlix

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans La
316 Am Cdt Thu May 4 2006

.discussion...not Planning On Too Many Changes This Morning With
The Models In General Agreement With The Current Forecast. High
Pressure Remains In Control Over The Eastern Gulf While Weak
Ridging Aloft Prevails Over The Southern Plains. Isolated
Convection Though Remains Possible Today And Tonight Especially If
Outflows From Dominant Mcs`s To The North Move This Far Southward.
Otherwise The Gfs Still Indicates A Breakdown In The Ridge Pattern
Aloft As High Pressure Moves Off Toward The Atlantic Basin Fri.
This Occurs In Advance Of The Next Cold Front Expected To Settle
Into The Region Sat With Rain Chances Increasing. The Models
Remain Split On The Forward Progression The Boundary Although The
General Thinking Is Still That The Front Will Eventually Move Into
The Far Northern Gulf Mon And Eventually Weaken. This Would At
Least Bring A Temporary End To The Rain Chances As The New Work
Week Begins Before The Next System Approaches Around Mid Week.
&&

.preliminary Point Temps/pops...
Mcb 86 66 83 65 / 20 20 40 30
Btr 87 67 84 66 / 20 20 40 30
Msy 86 69 85 69 / 20 20 30 30
Gpt 83 69 82 68 / 10 20 30 30
&&

.lix Watches/warnings/advisories...
La...none.
Gm...none.
Ms...none.
Gm...none.
&&

$$

[ROLLTIDE]

Today: Scattered showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 1pm. Partly cloudy, with a high near 86. West wind between 5 and 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Tonight: Isolated showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 68. West wind around 5 mph becoming east. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Saturday: Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 83. Southeast wind between 5 and 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

Saturday Night: Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low near 68. South wind around 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Sunday: Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high around 85. Southwest wind between 5 and 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

Sunday Night: Isolated showers and thunderstorms before 1am. Partly cloudy, with a low around 67. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Monday: Partly cloudy, with a high near 85.

Monday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 67.

Tuesday: A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high around 86.

Tuesday Night: A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low near 68.

Wednesday: Partly cloudy, with a high near 88.

Wednesday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 69.

Thursday: A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high around 87.

[ROLLTIDE]

Ea Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans La
342 Am Cdt Sat May 6 2006

.discussion...
Main Forecast Concerns Continue To Center Around Precipitation
Chances Through The Weekend. Another Mcs Developed Overnight And
Continues To Track East Southeast Across East Texas Early This
Morning. It Appears That This Convection..or Its Weakening
Remnants...will Enter Western Sections Of The Forecast Area During
The Morning Hours. This Convection Will Likely Set Up An Outflow
Boundary Across The Forecast Area Which In Combination With A Weak
Frontal Boundary Already Draped Across The Area Will Serve As A
Focus For Convection Later Today As Another Short Wave/mcv
Traverses The Lower Mississippi Valley And Central Gulf Coast
Region. Although Wind Fields Will Remain Fairly Weak...isolated
Strong To Severe Convection Possible Today If We Get Enough
Heating Resulting In Increased Instability. Models Indicate That
The Frontal Boundary Will Move Back North Tonight Into Sunday In
Advance Of Another Short Wave Which May Initiate Another Mcs North
Of The Forecast Area Tonight. More Convection Will Be On Tap For
Sunday As This Short Wave Moves Across The Region. A Chance For
Showers And Thunderstorms Has Been Added To The Forecast Monday As
The Weak Front Settles South Across The Area Again While Yet
Another Short Waves Moves Across The Central Gulf Coast Region.
Gfs Continues To Forecast A Significant Upper Trough Deepening
Across The Eastern Conus For The End Of The Week With An Associated
Cold Front Pushing Across The Area Thursday Bringing Another
Chance For Rain.

&&

.preliminary Point Temps/pops...
Mcb 79 64 83 62 / 60 40 50 20
Btr 82 66 85 64 / 60 40 50 20
Msy 84 68 85 68 / 50 30 50 20
Gpt 82 67 82 68 / 50 30 50 20

[ROLLTIDE]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans La
352 Am Cdt Sun May 7 2006

.discussion...
The Main Focus For This Forecast Package Continues To Be
Precipitation Chances Through The Period. Despite Relatively High
Mos Guidance Pops The Last Couple Of Days...actual Rainfall Across
The Forecast Area Has Been Fairly Light And Sparse. Regional
Radars Early This Morning Show Scattered Convection Gradually Increasing
In Coverage Extending From Central And Southwest Mississippi To
Southwest Louisiana. This Convection Was In The General Location
Of A Weak Frontal Boundary. Water Vapor Imagery Indicates Some Drier
Air Aloft Working Into The Region Which Was Reflected In The Sil
00z Sounding. It Appears That A Weak Short Wave Was Moving Across
The Lower Mississippi Valley This Morning That Was Aiding The
Thunderstorm Development.

Models Solutions Continue To Display Considerable Inconsistencies
With Regards To Precipitation Chances Largely As A Result Of
Differences In The Timing Of Short Waves In The Southern Branch Of
The Westerlies. As A Result...overall Confidence In Precipitation
Chances...particularly For Monday And Again Mid Week...is Below
Average. Plan To Maintain 50 Percent Pops For The Area Today With
The Models Generally Indicating That The Best Chance For
Precipitation Will Be In The North And West Sections Of The
Forecast Area Earlier Today With Better Chances East And South
Later In The Day As The Short Wave Progresses East And The Weak
Frontal Boundary Settles Back To The South. The Gfs Takes This
Boundary Farther South...briefly Into The Coastal Waters Later
Tonight And Monday...than The Nam. The Nam Forecast Solution
Paints A Much Wetter Scenario On Monday Than That Of The Gfs As It
Moves A Short Wave Across The Area With Its Farther North Surface
Front Position. At This Time Plan To Maintain Small Pops With The
Best Chance Across Southern Zones Where Better Moisture Is More
Likely To Reside. Plan To Continue Chance Pops Tuesday As Another
Short Wave Moves Across The Region And Overall Moisture Increases
And Deepens. As An Upper Trough Deepens Over The Eastern Conus
With An Upper Low Forecast To Be Centered Over The Great Lakes
Region By Mid To Late Week Another Cold Front Will Approach And
Move Through The Forecast Area Late Wednesday Night Into Thursday.
Plan To Continue With The Chance Pops Through This Time Frame With
Dry Weather Returning For The End Of The Week.

&&

[ROLLTIDE]

Afdlix

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans La
330 Am Cdt Mon May 8 2006

.discussion...warm And Muggy Conditions Continue This Morning As A
Lingering Boundary Draped Across The Gulf Coast Area Drifts Into
The Northern Gulf. Generally Zonal Flow Should Also Allow Subtle
Disturbances To Meander Across The Region Over The Next Few Days.
Will Keep Rain Chances In The Sct Cat For Today Although The Gfs
And The Nam Differ Quite A Bit On Pops With The Gfs The Drier Of
The Two. Rain Chances During The Day Look To Remain In The Sct
Cat Through Wed Before The Next Front Sweeps Through The Region
Early Thu. While The Lead Associated Upper Trough Shears Well
North Of The Region...a Deep Thickness Trough And Building High
Pressure Should Help Push The Front Into The Central Gulf By Fri
With Drier Air Filtering Into The Region For The Upcoming Weekend.
&&

[ROLLTIDE]

National Weather Service New Orleans La
403 Am Cdt Tue May 9 2006

.discussion...
Latest Showed A Westerly Flow Across Southeast And South Central
Conus. Disturbances Embedded In The West Flow Over Central...east
Texas And North Louisiana To South Alabama Push Last Nights
Convection East. In Addition...a Closed Upper Level Low Was Located
Just North Of Montana. Surface Analysis Showed A 996mb Low Over
Texas Panhandle With A Warm Boundary From The Low To North Louisiana
To The Florida Panhandle. Short Range Continue To Show The Upper Low
Moving Southeast Over Mid Mississippi Valley Wednesday Afternoon To
Thursday. At The Surface...the Associated Low Will Slowly Move
Southeast Toward North Central Today. This Will Keep The Boundary
Just To The North With Track Of The Disturbances...pw Will Remain
From 1.8 To 2.0 Inches Today. Ample Surface Will Equate To Chance
Pops For Today. The Low Is Expected To Eject Northeast Pulling The
Warm Boundary North. Upper Level Low Will Park Over The Ohio Valley
By Thursday Morning. The Surface Low Will Continue East Dragging A
Cold Front Across The Forecast Area Thursday Morning. The Associated
Surface High Will Move Across The Area Friday Night Through Early
Saturday. Another Will Bring A Chance Of Rain Sunday Night Into
Monday.

&&

[ROLLTIDE]

rea Forecast Discussion

000
FXUS64 KLIX 100909
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
409 AM CDT WED MAY 10 2006

.DISCUSSION...
PATTERN SETTING UP LOOKS SIMILAR TO THE SAME ONE DURING THIS SAME
TIME IN 1960 JUST NOT AS COLD. RECORD LOWS LOOK TO BE SAFE FOR NOW
BUT MAY HAVE TO REVISIT THIS WITH TIME. MODELS OBVIOUSLY HAVING A
HARD TIME HANDLING THE COLD AIR PLUNGE FROM THE NORTH SINCE THE
NUMBERS WILL BE FAR AWAY FROM THE NORMAL LINE OF REGRESSION. THIS
WAS SHOWN VERY WELL BY THE GFS DECREASING TEMPS BY ABOUT 6 DEGREES
EVERYWHERE FOR TONIGHT ONCE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THE ONLY
MODEL TO PICK UP ON THIS TREND EARLY WAS THE ETA ROS WHICH IS RAN
LOCALLY.

CURRENTLY...TWO AIR FLOWS AT JET LEVEL ARE MERGING OVER THE NEW
MEXICO-WEST TEXAS REGION. THIS IS CAUSING A LOT OF SUBSIDENT
WARMING WHICH IS ALSO HELPING TO KEEP ANYTHING FROM DEVELOPING OUT
THAT WAY. BUT WHERE THESE TWO FLOWS SPLIT OVER THE RED RIVER
VALLEY OF NORTHERN TX LARGE SCALE LAYER LIFTING IS OCCURRING.
ABUNDANT MOISTURE IS BEING FUNNELED TO THIS AREA AS WELL. AS SMALL
SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE MAIN TROUGH MOVE INTO THIS UPPER
DIVERGENT AREA TS EXPLODE. NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED YET AND THEREFORE
THE SAME AREAS DOWNSTREAM OF THE SOURCE REGION WILL CONTINUE WITH
THIS DYNAMIC EVENT THIS MORNING. THIS DIVERGENT UPPER LEVEL AREA WILL
BEGIN TO SINK SOUTHWARD TODAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
US/CANADIAN ROCKIES BEGINS TO DIG AND MOVE SE. THIS WILL TEND TO
FLATTEN THE UPPER/MID LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE GULF SOUTH LETTING
SH/TS DEVELOP INTO SOME VOLATILE DYNAMICS ALOFT. THERE WILL BE A
SHARP CUT OFF OF THESE TS TO THE SOUTH OF WHERE THEY FORM. FOR
THIS REASON...WE ARE KEEPING 20% FROM THE LAKES SOUTH UNTIL THIS
EVENING. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE FLATTENED ENOUGH BY THEN TO ALLOW
A STRONG COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH BY LATE TONIGHT AND THU
MORNING.

THIS COLD FRONT WILL BE THE SECOND MAJOR EVENT. NOT JUST WITH
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL BUT WITH UNSEASONABLY COOLER NORTHERLY
FLOW WHICH WILL BE ADVECTING AIR FROM NORTHERN CANADA. EVENTHOUGH
THE AIR WILL MODIFY GREATLY AS IT MOVES SOUTH...IT WILL BE COOL
ENOUGH TO CAUSE OUR TEMPS TO FALL WELL BELOW NORMS FOR MAY.

THE UPPER LOW OVER MONTANA AND THE DAKOTAS THIS MORNING WILL MOVE
SE INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI WHILE A STRONG SFC LOW OCCLUDES OVER THE
GREAT LAKES AREA THURSDAY. THE UPPER LOW WILL GET CUT OFF FROM THE
WESTERLIES AND BE FORCED SOUTHWARD BY AN UPPER RIDGE FORMING NORTH
OF IT. THE UPPER LOW WILL BE FORCED INTO THE DEEP SOUTHEAST U.S.
BY SUNDAY...ALL THE WHILE...SEVERAL SFC COLD FRONTS WILL MOVE
THROUGH HERE TO REINFORCE THE COOL AIR UNTIL THE UPPER LOW GETS
CAUGHT UP IN THE MAIN FLOW BY THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 86 57 78 49 / 40 40 0 0
BTR 87 61 79 50 / 30 40 0 0
MSY 89 65 79 57 / 20 40 0 0
GPT 85 64 77 52 / 30 40 0 0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

[ROLLTIDE]

Area Forecast Discussion
000
FXUS64 KLIX 110820
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
320 AM CDT THU MAY 11 2006

.DISCUSSION...COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS EARLY MORNING AND SHOULD CONTINUE TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST GULF AFTER DAYBREAK. MUCH OF THE LINGERING CONVECTION IS
NOW CONFINED MAINLY OVER THE COASTAL AREAS WITH A GRADUAL CLEARING
TREND WORKING ITS WAY SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTHWEST LA. HIGH PRESSURE
SHOULD THEN BUILD ACROSS THE GULF BEGINNING FRI BEFORE MOVING EAST
TOWARD THE ATLANTIC BASIN SUN IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT.
THIS NEXT FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SUN AS THE MAIN
UPPER TROUGH MEANDERS OVER THE EASTERN STATES KEEPING MUCH OF THE
GULF REGION LOCKED IN A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME ALOFT. ENOUGH
MOISTURE THOUGH LOOKS TO SWING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN BASE OF THE
TROUGH ALONG THE SURFACE BOUNDARY SUN BRINGING WITH IT THE NEXT
CHANCE OF RAIN AND THUNDER. AFTERWARDS...ITS PREDOMINANTLY A TEMP
FORECAST AS HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES WITH
TEMPS HOVERING NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL VALUES.
&&

[ROLLTIDE]

rea Forecast Discussion

000
FXUS64 KLIX 120823
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
323 AM CDT FRI MAY 12 2006

.DISCUSSION...DRY AND TRANQUIL CONDITIONS LOOK TO PREVAIL ACROSS
THE OUTLOOK AREA FOR ANOTHER 24 HOURS BEFORE ANOTHER WARMING TREND
BEGINS. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE CONTINUES TO BUILD EASTWARD
ACROSS THE GULF THIS MORNING AS A BROAD UPPER LOW DOMINATES THE
EASTERN CONUS. THE NEW GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS THE SURFACE HIGH
PROGRESSIVELY MOVING TOWARD THE ATLANTIC BASIN SAT IN ADVANCE OF
THE NEXT COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION LATE SAT
AND EARLY SUN. WHILE NORTHWEST FLOW PREVAILS ALOFT...A GOOD
MOISTURE POOL STILL LOOKS TO SWING UNDER THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN AND
THUNDER TO THE AREA. THE RAIN LOOKS TO CLEAR THE AREA LATE SUN AS
ANOTHER CLEARING AND COOLING TREND BEGINS MON. TEMPERATURES MAY
TRY TO REBOUND BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER DOME OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE MIDDLE GULF WITH NORTH TO NORTHWEST
FLOW PREVAILING ALOFT.
&&

[ROLLTIDE]

Today: Mostly sunny, with a high around 86. Southwest wind between 5 and 15 mph.

Tonight: Isolated showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a low around 65. South wind around 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 10%.

Sunday: Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high around 84. West wind between 10 and 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Sunday Night: Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low near 63. West wind between 5 and 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Monday: Mostly sunny, with a high around 78. North wind between 10 and 15 mph.

Monday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 61.

Tuesday: A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a high near 80.

Tuesday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 64.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny, with a high around 80.

Wednesday Night: Mostly clear, with a low near 67.

Thursday: Mostly sunny, with a high around 85.

Thursday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 70.

Friday: Partly cloudy, with a high near 86

[ROLLTIDE]

Today: Scattered showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 1pm. Partly cloudy, with a high near 83. West wind between 5 and 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Tonight: Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 66. Calm wind becoming north around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Monday: Isolated showers and thunderstorms before 1pm. Partly cloudy, with a high around 77. North wind between 10 and 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Monday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low near 65. North wind between 10 and 15 mph.

[ROLLTIDE]

0
Fxus64 Klix 150800
Afdlix

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans La
300 Am Cdt Mon May 15 2006

.discussion...
No Changes To Ongoing Pack. Beautiful Weather Expected To Continue
Through Much Of The Week. Current Cold Front Just Passing Baton
Rouge Hammond And Picayune This Morning And Finally Beginning To Ease
Into The Slidell Area. Slow Movement Will Keep New Orleans On The
Muggy Side For A While This Morning But The Dry Air Should Reach
The Metro Area Before Noon Today. Strongly Modified Caa Will Keep
Temps Below Average Through The Week With A Very Dry Forecast.
Not A Bad Start To Summer.

&&

[ROLLTIDE]

000
Fxus64 Klix 160748
Afdlix

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans La
248 Am Cdt Tue May 16 2006

.discussion...
Wow!!!!!!!! Nice Weather Is The Only Thing That Comes To Mind.
Strong Upper Low Responsible For This Weather Continues To Carve
Out A Huge Piece Of Real Estate Over The Eastern Half Of The
Country. As Long As The Upper Low Stays In Place...reinforcing
Surges Of Cool Air From The North Will Move Through The Area
Keeping Temps Well Below Normal. Well Below Normal Enough To
Threaten Record Lows For All Locations North Of The Lakes. Will
Add Wording Of Near Record Lows In Zones This Morning. This Is
Expected To Occur Through Wednesday. Starting Thursday We Begin To
Familiarize Ourselves With What Our Summer Heat And Humidity
Actually Feel Like.

700mb Deep Thermal Trough Is Beginning To Move Over The Area This
Morning. Its Expected To Stay Around Through Wednesday Causing
Some Very Steep Lapse Rates. Useing The Cu Rule With Convection
During The Day...we Should See More Cloud Cover Which Will Also
Act To Keep Temps Down A Few Degrees Through The Daylight Hours.
Deep Enough Moisture Will Exist By This Evening Mostly Over
Southern Mississippi To Squeeze Out A Sprinkle Or Two. This Will
Be More Apparent Wednesday. The High That Settles Across The Gulf
Will Move East Of The Area Thursday Bringing Southerly Winds Back
To The Central Gulf Coast.

Record Lows For Msy/btr:
May 16 May 17
New Orleans: 46 197351 1967
Baton Rouge:51 197353 1956

New Orleans And Areas South Look To Be Quite Safe With Respect To
Record Lows Being Broken. On The Other Hand...baton Rouge And All
Areas Along And North Of The North Shore Will Be Very Close If Not
Meeting Record Low Temps This Morning And Tomorrow Morning.



&&

.preliminary Point Temps/pops...
Mcb 77 52 79 55 / 10 10 10 10
Btr 78 54 81 58 / 0 0 10 10
Msy 79 61 82 63 / 0 0 10 10
Gpt 77 54 80 58 / 10 0 10 10

&&

.lix Watches/warnings/advisories...
La...none.
Gm...none.
Ms...none.
Gm...none.
&&

[ROLLTIDE]

Area Forecast Discussion
000
FXUS64 KLIX 170811
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
311 AM CDT WED MAY 17 2006

.DISCUSSION...
NICE WEATHER CONTINUES. WILL BEGIN TO MOVE TEMPS UPWARD AFTER
TODAY. BY THE WEEKEND WE SHOULD BE BACK INTO NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. ONCE AGAIN WITH DAYTIME HEATING...CU CLOUDS
WILL FORM WITH SOME SPRINKLES POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY. NEXT EVENT
WILL BE COMING UP OVER THE WEEKEND INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE NEXT
WORK WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN FROM THE NORTH AS ANOTHER
ARCTIC RIDGE HEADS SOUTH. QUESTION WILL BE WILL THE COLD FRONT
MAKE IT THIS FAR SOUTH? ATTM THINKING IS THAT IT WILL NOT. THE
UPPER LOW OVER THE NE MOVES OUT AS AN UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER
THE ROCKIES INTO SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS LEADS ME TO BELIEVE THE
ARCTIC HIGH WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY AND THEN MOVE
EAST CAUSING THE COLD FRONT TO STALL SOMEWHERE NEAR OUR AREA. THIS
WILL ALSO BEGIN TO MAKE FOR A VERY DEEP FETCH OF SOUTHERLY WINDS
OVER A GOOD PERIOD OF TIME BRINGING THE HUMIDITY BACK TO THE AREA.
THE HEAT WILL ALREADY BE BACK CAUSING FOR SOME STICKY WEATHER BY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 79 54 85 59 / 10 05 05 05
BTR 81 56 87 62 / 10 05 05 05
MSY 82 61 84 67 / 10 05 05 05
GPT 79 57 84 62 / 10 05 05 05

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.

[ROLLTIDE]

Area Forecast Discussion

000
FXUS64 KLIX 180912
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
412 AM CDT THU MAY 18 2006

.DISCUSSION...
WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST THE NEXT 7 DAYS AS THERE APPEARS TO
BE LITTLE HOPE FOR MUCH NEEDED RAIN.

THE UNSEASONABLY DEEP MID/UPPER TROUGH THAT BROUGHT US PLEASANT
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL SOON BE A THING OF THE PAST AS THE
TROUGH SLIDES EAST OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD INTO THE ATLANTIC
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS AND RISING THICKNESS
VALUES WILL BRING HIGH TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR NORMAL TODAY
AFTER A COOL START. DEWPOINTS WILL BE RISING BACK TO MORE TYPICAL
60S ON FRIDAY AND THEY COULD BE BACK NEAR 70 DEGREES EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST...A MID/UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER
THE NATIONS MID SECTION THIS WEEKEND AS A DEEP UPPER TROUGH MOVES
INTO THE WESTERN CONUS. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO CLIMB TO
ABOVE NORMAL FOR HIGHS AND NEAR NORMAL FOR LOWS. WITH THE
HEAT...THERE IS ALWAYS CONCERN FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION...
HOWEVER...THE COMBINATION OF SHALLOW MOISTURE RETURN AND A
MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE INVERSION SHOULD INHIBIT DEEP CONVECTION AND
MEASURABLE RAIN. CLOUD COVER WILL BE CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR IN THE
SHORT TERM AND MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY IN THE DAY 3 TO 7
TIME FRAME.

&&

.MARINE...
UNFAVORABLE WEST AND SOUTHWEST WINDS UP NEAR 12 OR 13 KNOTS WILL
CREATE PERIODS OF CHOPPY LAKE AND PROTECTED WATER CONDITIONS TODAY
AND FRIDAY. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE A BIT THIS WEEKEND WITH A
LIGHTER MORE DUE SOUTH WIND EXPECTED BY SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
PATCHY GROUND FOG IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING...OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR WEATHER.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOWEST RELATIVE HUMIDITIES MAY DROP INTO THE LOWER 30 PERCENT
RANGE TODAY...THEN RH/S WILL INCREASE THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS WINDS
BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY.

[ROLLTIDE]

rea Forecast Discussion

000
FXUS64 KLIX 190850
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
350 AM CDT FRI MAY 19 2006

.SYNOPSIS/DISCUSSION...
NORTH AMERICAN SCALE WATER VAPOR SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW A FAIRLY
STABLE AND AMPLIFIED MID/UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WITH A EAST PACIFIC
TROUGH...WESTERN CONUS RIDGE...AND EASTERN CONUS TROUGH. THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE TROUGH OVER THE GULF COAST HAS BEEN SLOWLY
PROGRESSING EAST WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NOW CENTERED OVER THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO. THIS HAS CAUSED TEMPERATURES
TO WARM QUITE A BIT OVER THE LAST 24 TO 36 HOURS.

OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...THE MID/UPPER LEVEL FEATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST AND BECOME LESS AMPLIFIED. THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST WILL COME UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF RIDGING ALOFT
WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPRESS ANY PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT AND
BRING WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN...ALTHOUGH SLIGHT...WILL COME NEXT
THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. BY THAT TIME...THE CAP MAY WEAKEN AND THE
PATTERN LOOKS SUPPORTIVE OF ISOLATED DIURNAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FORMING ON SEA AND LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES.

&&

.MARINE...
MODERATE TO STRONG WEST AND SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS HAVE
BEEN OCCURRING MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD
EXERCISE CAUTION EARLY THIS MORNING. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH TO 10
TO 15 KNOTS SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE...BUT THEY COULD INCREASE TO
NEAR 15 KNOTS AGAIN THIS EVENING. IMPROVING CONDITIONS WITH WINDS
GENERALLY AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR WEATHER PREVAILS. MIXING FROM BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SHOULD
PREVENT FOG THIS MORNING. SOME BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS FROM LIGHT
FOG MAY OCCUR LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.