New Orleans Local Weather thread

[dkmac]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
418 AM CDT FRI SEP 3 2010

.SHORT TERM...
CAUGHT BETWEEN TWO WEAKNESSES. A FRONT TO THE NW AND A TROUGH OVER
THE CENTRAL GULF. AIR MASS BETWEEN THESE TWO IS DRY(1.05"PW). THE
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF COAST REINFORCING THIS DRY AIR OVER
THE WEEKEND. SHOULD SEE SOME REALLY NICE CONDITIONS DURING THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THE MOISTURE
WILL BE MOVING BACK AFTER THAT PROVIDING ISOLATED SH/TS ACTIVITY
ONCE AGAIN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH ONLY A
BRIEF HINT AT MVFR VSBY AT A FEW LOCATIONS DUE MAINLY TO SHALLOW
GROUND FOG. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE BY 1400-1430Z.
CONVECTION SHOULD BE LIMITED TO ISOLATED AT BEST WITH A SLIGHTLY
BETTER CHANCE AT KBTR AND KMCB THIS AFTERNOOON IN ADVANCE OF A
FRONTAL ZONE APPROACHING THE REGION. 24/RR

&&

.MARINE...
COLD FRONT DROPPING INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY IS
LIKELY TO STALL OVER THE NORTH GULF OF MEXICO AND PROVIDE A PERIOD
OF COOL AIR DRAINAGE CONSIDERATIONS IN THE MORNING HOURS SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY MORNINGS BEFORE MODERATION TAKES PLACE. THIS WILL ALLOW
FROM A FEW HOURS OF GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS NEAR SHORE DURING THE
MORNINGS. OTHERWISE...RATHER LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS ANTICIPATED
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SWELLS WILL LIKELY INCREMENT UPWARD BY
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS EASTERLY FLOW ESTABLISHES A FETCH FROM THE
FLORIDA STRAITS INTO THE NORTH AND CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. 24/RR

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 92 66 89 61 / 20 10 0 0
BTR 94 69 92 64 / 20 10 10 10
ASD 94 68 91 62 / 10 10 10 10
MSY 93 73 90 70 / 10 10 10 10
GPT 93 69 92 65 / 10 10 10 10
PQL 94 68 91 62 / 10 10 10 10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.

[dkmac]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
337 AM CDT SAT SEP 4 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPEARS TO HAVE ARRIVED IN THE CWA...LIKELY
JUST NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 10/12 CORRIDORS. ABOUT A 75 MILE WIDE
BAND OF CLOUDS IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. SURFACE RIDGE
CENTERED OVER KS AND OK...WITH MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE. A FEW AREAS OF FOG HAVE DEVELOPED IN
THE SUBSIDENT AIR AHEAD OF THE FRONT...GENERALLY TO THE SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 10. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS AREA FOR POSSIBLE SMALL
ADVISORY AROUND SUNRISE. TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE 70S...BUT
OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS SHOW LOWER DEW POINTS...AS LOW AS THE MID 50S
AT JACKSON...JUST BEGINNING TO ENTER THE AREA.
&&

.SHORT TERM...
SURFACE RIDGE GRADUALLY SHIFTS EASTWARD...AND WILL BE CENTERED
OVER THE ATLANTIC COAST BY MONDAY. THIS WILL SHIFT OUR WINDS FROM
NORTHERLY TODAY TO SOUTHEASTERLY BY MONDAY. WHILE PRECIPITATION IS
POSSIBLE NEAR THE WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY...EXPECT AREAL
COVERAGE TO BE VERY LIMITED. BOUNDARY SHOULD WASH OUT OVER THE
NEXT 24-36 HOURS. AS THE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW RETURNS
MONDAY...MOISTURE WILL INCREASE...ALLOWING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS TO RETURN TO THE FORECAST BY AFTERNOON.

DRIER AIR WILL ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN AROUND NORMAL
THROUGH MONDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE ABOUT 5 TO 7 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL TONIGHT...AND ABOUT 3 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY NIGHT. 35
&&

.LONG TERM...
UPPER RIDGE WILL PARK OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES FOR THE WORK WEEK.
PERSISTENT SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP AIRMASS FAIRLY MOIST.
THUS...SCATTERED...DIURNALLY FAVORED CONVECTION WILL BE EXPECTED
EACH DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. 35
&&

.AVIATION...
SOME PATCHY FOG WILL AFFECT A FEW TERMINALS THIS MORNING AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA VERY SLOWLY. VIS WILL FALL TO AROUND 1SM
FOR MOST LOCATIONS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTHERLY AND DRY AIR WILL
FILTER INTO THE REGION KEEPING FOG OUT OF THE PICTURE FOR SUNDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
COLD FRONT SLOWLY TRACKING ACROSS THE STATE TOWARDS THE GULF COAST..
IT IS EXPECTED TO STALL ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND
PROVIDE A PERIOD OF COOL AIR DRAINAGE CONSIDERATIONS IN THE MORNING
HOURS TODAY AND AGAIN SUNDAY BEFORE MODERATION TAKES PLACE. THIS
WILL ALLOW A FEW HOURS OF GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS NEAR SHORE DURING
THE MORNINGS. A WEAK SFC LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF WILL CREATE A
TIGHTER GRADIENT FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL TO NORTHERN GULF BY THE START
OF THE WEEK. A WEAK TROUGH ALONG WITH THE STALLED FRONT WILL ALSO
KEEP ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE MARINE
AREAS THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SWELLS WILL LIKELY INCREMENT UPWARD BY
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS EASTERLY FLOW ESTABLISHES A FETCH FROM THE
FLORIDA STRAITS INTO THE NORTH AND CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 89 60 91 66 / 10 10 10 0
BTR 91 64 92 69 / 10 10 10 10
ASD 91 64 90 69 / 10 10 10 10
MSY 90 70 90 73 / 10 10 10 10
GPT 91 65 90 70 / 10 10 10 10
PQL 91 63 89 68 / 10 10 10 10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.

[dkmac]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
346 AM CDT SUN SEP 5 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS MOVED ABOUT 50NM OFF THE COAST OF LOUISIANA.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS IN
THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT...BUT GIVE NO INDICATIONS OF ENCROACHING
ON LAND THIS MORNING. SEEING SOME OF THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES WE
HAVE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA SINCE THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. LOW
TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING LIKELY TO BE IN THE 60S FROM LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN NORTHWARD.
&&

.SHORT TERM...
UPPER TROFFING OVER THE EAST COAST LIFTS OUT OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AND HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTH AND EAST...WITH IT BEING CENTERED OVER THE AREA BY
WEDNESDAY. SURFACE FLOW WILL RETURN TO A SERLY...ONSHORE...DIRECTION
TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW HUMIDITY TO RETURN...AND
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TO INCREASE AGAIN BEGINNING TOMORROW.
WILL STILL ONLY BE IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY HOWEVER. TEMPERATURES
WILL RETURN TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. 35
&&

.LONG TERM...
UPPER RIDGING THAT BUILDS OVER THE GULF COAST BY MIDWEEK WILL
REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. NO SYNOPTIC SCALE
FEATURES WILL BE OVER THE AREA...SO ANY CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO BE
DIURNALLY BASED AND PRIMARILY CAUSED BY LAND/SEA BREEZE
INTERACTIONS. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THE ENTIRE EXTENDED PERIOD. 35
&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT EACH OF THE TERMINAL LOCATIONS
THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT LOCATED OFF THE SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA COAST WILL REMAIN
STATIONARY ACROSS THE NORTH GULF OF MEXICO TODAY. NORTHERLY DRAINAGE
WINDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 15 KNOTS OVER THE MISSISSIPPI SOUND AND
LAKE BORGNE AREAS THIS MORNING AND QUICKLY ABATE TO AROUND 5 TO 10
KNOTS DURING THE DAY. THE STALLED FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE BACK
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TONIGHT AND MONDAY BEFORE BECOMING DIFFUSE.
LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL DURING THE
WORK WEEK.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 89 61 91 71 / 0 0 20 10
BTR 90 68 92 74 / 0 10 30 20
ASD 88 66 91 74 / 0 10 20 10
MSY 88 73 90 76 / 10 10 30 20
GPT 88 65 90 74 / 0 10 20 10
PQL 88 60 90 70 / 0 10 20 10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.

[dkmac]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
402 AM CDT MON SEP 6 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER PENNSYLVANIA RIDGES BACK INTO THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THIS MORNING. TS HERMINE IS OVER
THE SOUTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO...PRODUCING A BIT OF A GRADIENT
ACROSS OUR WESTERN WATERS THIS MORNING. SURFACE BOUNDARY APPEARS
TO BE RIGHT ALONG THE COAST BASED ON WIND FIELDS. DEW POINTS HAVE
REBOUNDED BACK INTO THE 70S ACROSS ABOUT THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE
CWA. NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WITHIN OUR AREA AT THIS TIME.
&&

.SHORT TERM...
TS HERMINE IS NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE A DIRECT EFFECT ON OUR LAND
BASED WEATHER...AS IT TRACKS TOWARD THE RIO GRANDE IN THE NEXT
24-36 HOURS. FRONTAL BOUNDARY RETURNS NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
TODAY...INCREASING MOISTURE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. AS IT
WILL TAKE A WHILE FOR AIRMASS TO RECOVER...PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPMENT MAY TAKE A WHILE TO GET GOING TODAY. BEST CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION THIS WEEK APPEAR TO BE TOMORROW AS IMPULSE WRAPS
AROUND UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER ALABAMA. RIDGE BUILDS BACK OVER
THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND AREAL COVERAGE OF CONVECTION EXPECTED TO
DROP. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AFTER
THIS MORNING. 35
&&

.LONG TERM...
UPPER RIDGING WILL REMAIN ALONG THE GULF COAST FROM THURSDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL KEEP ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
LIMITED TO DIURNALLY PREFERRED HOURS...AND NOT MUCH MORE THAN 20
TO 30 PERCENT AREAL COVERAGE. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. 35
&&

.AVIATION...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN IS BRINGING SCATTERED TO OCCASIONALLY
BROKEN CLOUDS WITH BASES 020-030 OVER MAINLY COASTAL SOUTH LA EARLY
THIS MORNING...AND THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE THIS MORNING.
PATCHY FOG WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE AT KMCB...KBTR...AND
KHUM 10Z TO 13Z THIS MORNING. IN ADDITION...ADDED MOISTURE WILL
CREATE A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA AT THE AIRPORTS MAINLY
WEST AND SOUTH OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN WITH THE BEST CHANCE AT KHUM.
WILL LIKELY CARRY A PERIOD OF VCTS/CB IN THE TAFS FOR THE AIRPORTS
ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM KBTR-KNEW. OTHERWISE...VFR WILL BE
THE PREVAILING CONDITION AT 8 TAF SITES THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY. THERE
WILL BE LITTLE BETTER CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO LIGHT BR
DURING 08-12Z PERIOD ON TUESDAY. 22/TD
&&

.MARINE...
PRESSURE GRADIENT IS TIGHTENING BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST CONUS AND TROPICAL STORM HERMINE IN THE SOUTHWEST GULF OF
MEXICO. THERE IS AN ELONGATED TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE THAT EXTENDS
NORTH FROM HERMINE TO THE LOWER TEXAS COAST. WINDS ON RIG PLATFORMS
IN THE GULF ARE REPORTING SPEEDS FROM 15 TO 17 KNOTS OVER MUCH OF
THE COASTAL WATERS WEST OF SOUTHWEST PASS...SO SURFACE WINDS ARE
MORE LIKELY RUNNING IN THE 13 TO 15 KNOTS RANGE. SPEEDS ARE STRONGER
JUST WEST AND SOUTH OF THE LIX MARINE AREA. SEAS OVER THE OFFSHORE
WATERS OF THE NORTHWEST/NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO HAVE RISEN INTO
THE 5 TO 7 FEET RANGE. THE FORECAST PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM A MODEL
BLEND SUGGEST WINDS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY INTO THE 15 TO 20 KNOTS
RANGE OVER THE OUTER WATERS WEST OF PORT FOURCHON...AND A /SMALL
CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION/ HEADLINE HAS BEEN ADDED. IN
ADDITION... THE WNAWAVE MODEL OUTPUT APPEARS TO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE
ON THE RISING SEA HEIGHTS ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF WATERS...SO
HAVE GONE CLOSE TO THEM WHICH IS HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
PACKAGE. THE SEAS ARE LIKELY TO RISE TO AT LEAST 6 FEET OVER THE
SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE MARINE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

AS HERMINE MOVES INLAND ON TUESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY
LOWER LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...AND BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
SHOULD BE DOWN TO 10 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS 2 FEET OR LESS. 22/TD
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 90 71 91 71 / 20 20 40 20
BTR 91 74 92 74 / 30 20 40 30
ASD 90 73 90 73 / 30 20 40 20
MSY 89 76 90 76 / 30 20 40 20
GPT 89 75 91 74 / 20 10 40 20
PQL 89 72 90 71 / 20 10 40 10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.

[dkmac]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
344 AM CDT TUE SEP 7 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
TROPICAL STORM HERMINE HAS MOVED INLAND AND IS CENTERED JUST NORTH
OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED
OVER NORTH CAROLINA. THIS LEAVES THE AREA IN MODERATE
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. ONLY A FEW SHOWERS BEING DETECTED OVER THE
GULF WATERS AT THIS TIME. FLOW OFF THE GULF HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES
MUCH WARMER THIS MORNING THAN THE LAST FEW MORNINGS...WITH ABOUT
HALF THE CWA STRUGGLING TO DROP BELOW 80 DEGREES. DEW POINTS
GENERALLY IN THE MIDDLE 70S.
&&

.SHORT TERM...
UPPER AND SURFACE RIDGES TO BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA. THIS IS
HAPPENING A LITTLE QUICKER THAN WAS EXPECTED YESTERDAY...AND POPS
FOR TODAY WILL BE ABOUT 10-15 PERCENT LOWER THAN WAS RUNNING IN
EARLIER FORECASTS. BEST CHANCES WILL BE IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF
THE AREA. AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN...MUCH OF THE AREA
WILL SEE LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO RUN 3 TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THURSDAY.

WILL ALLOW COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT TO RUN ITS COURSE THIS MORNING.
TIDES ARE RUNNING ABOUT 1 FOOT ABOVE NORMAL. WITH MOST OF THE
CIRCULATION OF HERMINE ALREADY OVER LAND...SWELL SHOULD BEGIN TO
DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO. 35
&&

.LONG TERM...
UPPER RIDGING FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER THE GULF COAST AREA THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. GFS DOES TRY TO SHIFT THE RIDGE WESTWARD
AROUND MONDAY...WHICH MAY ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA. ECMWF HOLDS THE RIDGE OVER THE AREA...WITH NO FRONTAL
PASSAGE. FOR NOW WILL GIVE A NOD TO THE GFS SOLUTION...BUT WOULD
NOT BE SHOCKED TO SEE A TREND TOWARD THE ECMWF SOLUTION IN LATER
FORECASTS. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE LIMITED...MAINLY DIURNAL IN
NATURE...AND ASSOCIATED WITH LAND/SEA INTERACTIONS. TEMPERATURES
AGAIN WILL REMAIN 3-5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. 35
&&

.AVIATION...
OVERALL...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE BALANCE OF THE TAF
FORECAST PERIOD AT EACH OF THE TERMINALS SITES OUTSIDE OF ANY
CONVECTION THAT MAY AFFECT THEM THIS AFTERNOON. THE EXCEPTION TO
THIS WILL BE LIFR CEILINGS AT KMCB...AND POSSIBLY SOME MVFR
VISIBILITIES/CEILINGS AT A COUPLE OTHER AIRPORTS DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS TODAY...BEFORE AND AROUND SUNRISE. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
THE MAINLY AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA IS AT KBTR...SLIGHTLY LESS AT
KMCB-KMSY-KHUM...AND LOWEST AT KGPT. MINOR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
IN LIGHT FOG ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
22/TD
&&

.MARINE...
TROPICAL STORM HERMINE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INLAND OVER SOUTH TEXAS
TODAY WHILE A LOBE OF HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST REGION. THIS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TODAY
WHICH WILL ALLOW THE WINDS AND WIND WAVES TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE. SWELLS
FROM HERMINE WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO DISSIPATE...SO THE TOTAL SEA
HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN A BIT ELEVATED...MAINLY OVER THE WATERS WEST OF
SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. CURRENT OBSERVATIONS ARE
MARGINAL FOR KEEPING A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...BUT WILL LET THE
CURRENT ADVISORY EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED AT 700 AM...THEN SMALL CRAFT
SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXERCISE CAUTION TODAY IN THE FAR WESTERN WATERS
20 TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE...MAINLY FOR THE SWELLS THAT WILL
REMAIN IN THE 5 TO 6 FEET RANGE.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTH
CENTRAL GULF COAST AREA WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WINDS AND
SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO EASE...WITH WINDS DROPPING TO AROUND 10 KNOTS
OR LESS ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AND SEAS SUBSIDING TO 2 FEET OR
LESS ON THURSDAY. 22/TD
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 91 70 92 70 / 30 20 10 10
BTR 92 74 93 73 / 40 20 20 10
ASD 90 73 91 72 / 30 10 10 10
MSY 90 76 90 75 / 30 10 10 10
GPT 91 74 90 74 / 20 10 10 10
PQL 90 71 93 71 / 20 10 10 10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER
ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER
ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

[dkmac]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
335 AM CDT WED SEP 8 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER IOWA AND OFF THE CAROLINA COAST THIS MORNING.
TD HERMINE NEAR ABILENE MOVING NORTHWARD...WITH ANOTHER LOW OVER
THE GREAT LAKES AND TRAILING COLD FRONT TO NEAR NASHVILLE. THIS
LEAVES OUR AREA IN RELATIVELY WEAK EASTERLY FLOW. TEMPERATURES A
LITTLE COOLER THIS MORNING WITH A LITTLE LESS GULF INFLUENCE DUE
TO THE LIGHT WINDS. TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS IN THE 70S.
&&

.SHORT TERM...
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS SLIGHTLY WESTWARD INTO THE AREA. THIS SHOULD
FURTHER LIMIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TODAY. IF THERE IS ANY
PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP IN THE CWA...IT WOULD MOST LIKELY BE
IMMEDIATELY ALONG THE ATCHAFALAYA RIVER...AND ONLY ISOLATED THERE.
A BIT OF A MOISTURE SURGE FROM THE GULF WILL ALLOW SLIGHTLY BETTER
CHANCES FOR CONVECTION ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BUT NOT MUCH MORE
THAN 20 PERCENT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. 35
&&

.LONG TERM...
UPPER RIDGING CONTINUES IN CONTROL THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AT A
MINIMUM. GFS SOLUTION DRIFTS THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE WESTWARD INTO
TEXAS BY MONDAY...AS DOES THE ECMWF. THE OPERATIVE QUESTION IS
WHETHER THE RIDGE DRIFTS WESTWARD FAR ENOUGH TO ALLOW A BACK DOOR
COOL FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. AT THIS TIME THE ANSWER APPEARS
TO BE YES. THIS WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO
SLIGHTLY ENHANCE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AS WE NEAR THE END OF THE
WEEKEND. STILL NO BETTER THAN CHANCE POPS IN THE EXTENDED.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE APPROXIMATELY 5 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. NO REAL NOTICEABLE
COOLING NOTED FROM FRONTAL PASSAGE AT THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH DRIER
AIRMASS MAY MAKE THINGS A LITTLE MORE COMFORTABLE. 35
&&

.AVIATION...
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TERMINAL SITES THROUGH THE
TAF FORECAST PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE FROM NOW UNTIL 12-13Z
THIS MORNING WHEN SOME AREAS OF STRATUS/LOW CEILINGS AND GENERALLY
LIGHT FOG/HAZE ARE EXPECTED TO BRING AREAS OF MVFR/ LOCALIZED IFR
CONDITIONS. THE SITES MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THESE CONDITIONS ARE
KMCB...KBTR...KHUM...AND KHSA. THERE WILL BE LITTLE OR NO SHRA/TSRA
AROUND TODAY DUE TO DRIER AIR OVER THE REGION. ANOTHER PERIOD OF
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS DUE TO MAINLY LIGHT FOG IS LIKELY ON
THURSDAY FROM 06-14Z. 22/TD
&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL EASE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
NON-EXISTENT TO ISOLATED OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS OR SO. 22/TD
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 92 70 93 72 / 10 10 20 10
BTR 93 74 93 75 / 10 10 20 10
ASD 92 73 92 73 / 10 10 10 10
MSY 92 76 91 77 / 10 10 10 10
GPT 92 75 92 75 / 10 10 10 10
PQL 92 72 92 74 / 10 10 20 10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.

[dkmac]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
333 AM CDT THU SEP 9 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE AND UPPER RIDGING EXTEND NORTH SOUTH ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY THIS MORNING. REMNANTS OF TS HERMINE CENTERED NEAR
OKLAHOMA CITY. A FEW CLOUDS AROUND 2K FEET OVER SE
LOUISIANA...OTHERWISE A QUIET NIGHT IN OUR AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY.
THERE ARE A FEW SHOWERS FURTHER OUT IN THE GULF DUE TO A WEAK
EASTERLY WAVE...BUT SHOULD NOT POSE A SIGNIFICANT PROBLEM TO MOST
OF THE AREA TODAY. TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS IN THE 70S AGAIN
THIS MORNING...MOST AREAS WITHIN A DEGREE OF READINGS 24 HOURS
AGO.
&&

.SHORT TERM...
EASTERLY WAVE IN THE GULF MAY SWING A FEW SHOWERS INTO LOWER
PLAQUEMINES PARISH TODAY...BUT DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR
THE MOST PART ELSEWHERE. SURFACE AND UPPER RIDGING OVER THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY MOVES SLOWLY TO THE EAST OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. ALONG THE GULF COAST...THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
UPPER RIDGE REFORMS TO THE WEST BY SUNDAY...AS UPPER TROFFING
MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THROUGH SATURDAY...THIS SHOULD NOT
HAVE A SIGNIFICANT EFFECT ON OUR WEATHER. AS SURFACE HIGH MOVES
OFF TO THE EAST...WE WILL SEE A LITTLE MORE ONSHORE COMPONENT TO
THE WINDS. THIS MAY ADD ENOUGH MOISTURE TO THE COLUMN FOR A LITTLE
BETTER AREAL COVERAGE OF CONVECTION BY SATURDAY OR SUNDAY. ASIDE
FROM THE PLAQUEMINES PARISH MENTION TODAY...AREAL COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION WILL BE VERY ISOLATED TODAY AND FRIDAY. PERSISTENCE
FORECAST ON TEMPERATURES SHOULD WORK FAIRLY WELL THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...WITH THESE VALUES STILL BEING ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. 35
&&

.LONG TERM...
AS SOUTHERN RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER TEXAS EARLY NEXT WEEK..EASTERN
TROF WILL AID IN A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA ON
MONDAY. A BETTER PUSH OF DRY AIR MAY OCCUR AROUND WEDNESDAY OR
THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK. GFS SOLUTION IS QUITE A BIT DEEPER WITH
EASTERN TROF AT MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK...WHILE ECMWF KEEPS MORE
DISTINCT RIDGING ALONG THE GULF COAST. BOTH SOLUTIONS ARE FAIRLY
DRY FOR THE AREA. ONLY LOW POPS CARRIED WITH FRONTAL SYSTEM. WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES PRETTY MUCH WHERE THEY HAVE BEEN THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. FOR NOW...WILL TREND WITH GFS AT END OF FORECAST TOWARD
COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR...BUT ECMWF SOLUTION WOULD SHOW NO
CHANGE IN HUMIDITY TOWARD END OF NEXT WEEK. 35
&&

.AVIATION...
HAVE GONE WITH CLOSE TO A PERSISTENCE FORECAST FROM YESTERDAY.
PATCHY LIGHT FOG IS STARTING TO FORM...AND IS LIKELY TO BECOME
MODERATE TO BRIEFLY DENSE AROUND KMCB WITH LIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
BEFORE 12Z. AM ALSO EXPECTING A PERIOD OF IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS DUE
TO CIGS AND/OR VSBYS AT KBTR...KASD...AND KHSA. ELSEWHERE...MAINLY
VFR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING...EXCEPT FOR A
BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR DUE TO LIGHT BR AT KHUM AND KGPT. AFTER 14Z
TODAY...VFR WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT ALL THE TAF AIRPORTS. THE CHANCE
OF SHRA/TSRA TODAY IS 10 PERCENT OR LESS...SO WILL NOT BE INCLUDING
ANY MENTION OF THUNDER OR CB CLOUD. 22/TD
&&

.MARINE...
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS OF 10 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS 2 FEET OR LESS
CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FIVE DAYS AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BE CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF THE NORTH GULF COAST. ANY APPROACHING
COLD FRONTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE COAST THROUGH AT
LEAST NEXT TUESDAY. 22/TD
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 93 71 93 72 / 10 10 10 10
BTR 93 74 93 75 / 10 10 10 10
ASD 92 73 92 75 / 10 10 10 10
MSY 92 76 92 77 / 10 10 10 10
GPT 92 75 92 76 / 10 10 10 10
PQL 92 70 92 72 / 10 10 10 10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.

[dkmac]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
405 AM CDT FRI SEP 10 2010

.SHORT TERM...
NO LARGE SCALE CHANGES BUT HAVE CHANGED SOME POP NUMBERS A LITTLE.
A STATIONARY WEAK TROUGH AXIS OVER TEH CENTRAL GULF WILL MOVE
NORTH SLOWLY AND ANCHOR ITSELF OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. AN OPEN
INVERTED TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THIS FEATURE TODAY ENHANCING SH/TS
ALONG IT. STORM MOTION WILL BE ONSHORE SO SOME OF THESE ARE
EXPECTED TO COME INTO SE LA THROUGH THE DAY. THE NAM IS MOST
AGRESSIVE WITH TRYING TO DEVELOP A SFC LOW ALONG THE TROUGH. WOULD
RATHER STAY CLOSER TO GLOBAL GUIDANCE PACKS THAT ONLY SHOW THE
OPEN WAVE MOVING THROUGH. THE NEXT FEATURE THAT MOVES INTO THE
AREA WILL BE A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT FROM THE NE. THERE SHOULD BE
DEEP ENOUGH TROPICAL MOISTURE AHEAD OF IT TO GET A GOOD CROP OF
SH/TS GOING BY SUNDAY. MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL SEE STRONG DRY AIR
INTRUSION CAUSING THE WATER TO SHUT OFF AS IT MOVES SW. FRONT
STALLS NEAR THE COAST INTO WED BEFORE WASHING OUT. WILL KEEP A
MORE GENERIC APPROACH TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AS TROPICAL
MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO FLOW NORTHWARD AND A STRONGER COLD FRONT
MAKES ITS WAY DOWN TO THE GULF COAST SAT NIGHT. CONFIDENCE IN A
COLD FRONTAL APPROACH IS PRETTY HIGH FOR THE WEEKEND. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO WATCH THE AREA NEAR THE LESSER ANTILLES.

&&

.AVIATION...
PATCHY FOG WILL PRODUCE MVFR CONDITIONS AT A FEW AIRPORTS EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH IFR POSSIBLE AT KMCB BEFORE 13Z. OTHERWISE...VFR
WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA MAY BRIEFLY IMPACT A COUPLE AIRPORTS TODAY...BUT
COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THE
TAFS. 22/TD

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST WILL
GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES SOUTH TOWARDS THE
COAST AND COASTAL WATERS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS
ONSHORE WINDS OF 10 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS 2 FEET OR LESS CAN BE
EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME VARIABLE TO OFFSHORE
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...POSSIBLY PEAKING IN 10 TO 15 KNOTS RANGE EARLY
MONDAY MORNING AS SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR PUSHES OFF THE
MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA COASTS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE BACK OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS ON TUESDAY WITH EASTERLY WINDS FORECAST. 22/TD

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 93 72 93 73 / 20 10 20 20
BTR 93 75 93 75 / 20 10 20 20
ASD 92 75 92 76 / 20 10 20 20
MSY 92 77 92 77 / 20 10 20 10
GPT 92 76 92 76 / 20 10 20 20
PQL 92 72 91 75 / 20 10 20 20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.

[dkmac]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
307 AM CDT SAT SEP 11 2010

.SHORT TERM...

A CHANGE IN THE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO TAKE HOLD OF THE REGION
HEADING INTO SUNDAY. HOWEVER...ANOTHER DAY OF WARM AND HUMID
TEMPERATURES IS ON TAP FOR TODAY...AS A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM TEXAS ACROSS THE GULF SOUTH DOMINATES THE AREA.
WITH AMPLE INSTABILITY IN PLACE DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY CAN BE EXPECTED.

THE RIDGE AXIS WILL WEAKEN A BIT OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE GULF
SOUTH...AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS INTO THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. IN THE LOW LEVELS...A FAIRLY VIGOROUS COLD FRONT WILL
SWING INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND WILL BE ORIENTED IN
AN EAST-WEST FASHION BY TOMORROW MORNING JUST NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. STRONG LOW LEVEL FORCING ALONG THE FRONT...COMBINED
WITH HIGH PW VALUES OF AROUND 2 INCHES...AND AMPLE LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW FOR HIGHER POPS ON SUNDAY. EXPECT SCATTERED
CONVECTION TO POP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT THROUGHOUT THE DAY
SUNDAY. FORTUNATELY...THE THREAT FOR LARGE SCALE SEVERE WEATHER
REMAINS LOW DURING THIS PERIOD. THE ONLY REAL THREAT WILL BE FOR
ISOLATED STRONG WIND EVENTS...DUE TO SOME DRIER AIR ADVECTING INTO
THE MID-LEVELS.

.LONG TERM...

THE FRONT WILL QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA...WITH ONLY LINGERING
SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED INTO SUNDAY EVENING OVER SOUTHWESTERN
ZONES. BY MONDAY MORNING...A MUCH DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS
IS EXPECTED TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION. A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...BUT THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE BY
MONDAY EVENING AS THE DRIER OVERSPREADS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...NORTHWEST FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL TAKE HOLD AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. IN THE LOW AND MID-LEVELS...A BROAD RIDGE CENTERED OVER
THE SOUTHERN STATES WILL TAKE HOLD AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THIS RIDGING WILL ALLOW FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...LOW
HUMIDITIES...AND OVERALL PLEASANT WEATHER FOR FIRST PART OF THE
WORK WEEK. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S
ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA...WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE LOUISIANA COAST AND THE NEW ORLEANS METRO AREA. THESE
AREAS WILL SEE LOWS COOL INTO THE LOWER 70S DUE TO THE MODERATING
INFLUENCE OF THE GULF AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN.

HEADING INTO THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK...SOME WEAK MOISTURE
RETURN FROM THE GULF IS EXPECTED...AS THE LOW-MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
SHIFTS TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST COAST. WEAK ONSHORE FLOW WILL
DEVELOP...ALLOWING FOR INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE
REGION. HOWEVER...THE NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...ALLOWING DRY AIR TO REMAIN IN PLACE ALOFT.
THIS WILL PUT A CAP ON MOST CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY...AND HAVE ONLY
WENT WITH ISOLATED POPS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE CONVECTION
WILL DIURNALLY FORCED...WITH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS SEEING
CONVECTION OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...AND THEN REDEVELOPMENT OVER
INLAND AREAS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. AN INCREASE
IN OVERALL HUMIDITY WILL ALSO BRING MUGGY CONDITIONS BACK TO THE
REGION FOR THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOME MVFR CEILINGS AND/OR VISIBILITIES WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
SUNRISE THIS MORNING...WITH LOCALLY LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT
KMCB. OTHERWISE...VFR WEATHER WILL PREVAIL FOR THE BALANCE OF THE
TAF FORECAST PERIOD AT THE TERMINAL SITES. ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE TOO ISOLATED IN NATURE TO INCLUDE IN
THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. 11

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WILL WEAKEN
OVER THE WEEKEND WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH
SUNDAY. THIS COLD FRONT IS NOW FORECAST TO PUSH INTO THE COASTAL
WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY BEFORE BECOMING DIFFUSE OVER THE NORTH
GULF BY MID WEEK. LIGHT AND RATHER VARIABLE WINDS OVER THE WEEKEND
WILL BECOME OFFSHORE AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING AND
BECOMING MORE EASTERLY TUESDAY. 11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 93 73 93 63 / 20 20 40 10
BTR 95 75 94 65 / 20 20 40 20
ASD 92 75 92 64 / 20 20 40 10
MSY 92 78 92 71 / 20 20 40 20
GPT 92 76 93 66 / 20 20 40 10
PQL 92 74 93 64 / 20 20 40 10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.

[dkmac]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
341 AM CDT SUN SEP 12 2010

.SHORT TERM...

CURRENT RADAR OBSERVATIONS ARE SHOWING A FEW SHOWERS OFF SHORE
THIS MORNING...AS WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS DRAPE THE AREA.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY POSITIONED JUST NORTH OF A LINE FROM
TEXARKANA AR TO MEMPHIS TN WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS TODAY.
MODELS HAVE THIS BOUNDARY WORKING ITS WAY SOUTHWARD INTO THE GULF
COAST REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. A DECENT
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...WITH
PW/S BEING CONSISTENT AROUND TWO INCHES FOR THIS FRONT TO TAP INTO
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH DECENT HEATING AHEAD
OF THE BOUNDARY WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE STRONGEST DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND ALTHOUGH SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED A STRAY STORM OR TWO MAY PRODUCE SOME DAMAGING WINDS.
MOST OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD END WITH SUNSET AND TRUE FROPA...BUT
THE COASTAL PARISHES OF SOUTH LOUISIANA MAY SEE SOME THUNDERSTORMS
LINGER INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

THE AFFECTS OF THIS FRONT WILL REALLY BE NOTICEABLE MONDAY
MORNING...AS THE DEW POINTS WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER 60S. TEMPS
SHOULD FOLLOW DEW POINTS TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE LAKE
AND THE ALONG THE MS COAST WHERE SOME SITES MAY SEE THE MID TO
UPPER 60S TOMORROW MORNING. OVERALL...THE TEMP AND POP FORECAST
REMAINED FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THIS PACKAGE...AS I PRETTY MUCH
FOLLOWED GFS GUIDANCE.

PARKER

.LONG TERM...

THE NICE COOL WEATHER WITH THIS FRONT DOES NOT LAST LONG...AS
RIDGING TAKES PLACE ACROSS THE AREA IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. TEMPS WILL
WARM BACK UP W/ MUGGY CONDITIONS RETURNING BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WORK
WEEK...AS SE FLOW RETURNS TO THE LOWER LEVELS. SOME ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY...BUT A DRY
PATTERN IS IN STORE AS RIDGING TAKES PLACE ACROSS THE AREA.

PARKER


&&

.AVIATION...

SOME MVFR CEILINGS AND/OR VISIBILITIES WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
SUNRISE THIS MORNING...PRIMARILY AT KMCB. OTHERWISE...VFR WEATHER
WILL PREVAIL FOR THE BALANCE OF THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD AT EACH OF
THE TERMINAL SITES...OUTSIDE ANY AREAS OF CONVECTION. A WEAK COLD
FRONT THAT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY WILL
PRODUCE SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA...MAINLY FROM THE LATE
MORNING HOURS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. 11

&&

.MARINE...

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE GULF COAST FROM THE NORTH TODAY
AND PUSH INTO THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY BEFORE
BECOMING DIFFUSE OVER THE NORTH GULF TUESDAY. LIGHT AND RATHER
VARIABLE WINDS TODAY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WILL BECOME OFFSHORE
AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING AND BECOMING MORE EASTERLY
TUESDAY. 11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 94 64 90 61 / 30 10 0 0
BTR 95 69 94 62 / 40 20 0 0
ASD 93 70 91 66 / 40 20 0 0
MSY 92 74 92 72 / 40 20 0 0
GPT 93 70 91 67 / 40 20 0 0
PQL 93 69 92 66 / 40 20 0 0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.

[dkmac]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
321 AM CDT MON SEP 13 2010

.SHORT TERM...

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME CIRRUS BLOW OFF FROM THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ON YESTERDAY IS STILL LINGERING FROM ACROSS MUCH OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LA. THE MORNING ANALYSIS SHOWS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA...BUT IS STILL STRUGGLING TO
MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH THE PARISHES OF COASTAL LOUISIANA. CURRENTLY
OBS SHOW THE DRIER HAS INVADED MOST OF THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE
CWA AS DEW POINTS ARE IN THE 60S...BUT BTR AND THE COASTAL
PARISHES OF LA ARE STILL HOLDING ON TO DEW POINTS IN THE 70S EARLY
THIS MORNING.

THE SURFACE RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE MIDDLE MS RIVER VALLEY AND
TENNESSEE VALLEY THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY
TODAY...THUS DRIVING MORE DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA DURING THE DAY.
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE NORTHEAST TODAY WITH THE
AMPLIFICATION OF THE RIDGE...AND THEN SHIFT TO AN EASTERLY
COMPONENT THIS EVENING.

RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN NEAR ZERO ONSHORE AND OFFSHORE OVER THE
NEXT 48HRS...AS BROAD RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT KEEP A DRY
PROFILE IN THE ATMOSPHERE. A MORE SOUTHEAST WIND COMPONENT RETURNS
TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN AND SHIFT
EAST. THIS MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO LEAD TO SOME ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN
PARISHES OF LA AND OFFSHORE...SO AS A RESULT I INTRODUCED 20 CENTS
IN THE AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY JUST FOR RESPECT.

PARKER

.LONG TERM...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PACKAGE. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL TRY TO SNEAK
INTO THE AREA THIS WEEKEND...BUT I JUST DON/T KNOW IF IT WILL
HAVE ENOUGH SUPPORT TO PUSH THROUGH. ANYWAY...CONSISTENCY
CONTINUES WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE LATTER PART
OF THE WORK WEEK AND UPCOMING WEEKEND. TEMPS VALUES REMAIN
CONSISTENT...WITH THE MODELS TRENDS CONTINUING TOWARD WARMER THAN
SEASONAL CLIMO VALUES.

PARKER

&&

.AVIATION...

COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA AND INTO THE GULF
OF MEXICO. WINDS WILL REMAIN NNE THROUGHOUT THE DAY BUT QUITE LIGHT
EXCEPT FOR AT NEW/MSY WHERE THERE WILL BE SOME ELEVATED WINDS. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD AT ALL TERMINALS.

MEFFER


&&

.MARINE...

OFFSHORE WINDS CONTINUE TO STEADILY RISE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TRACKS INTO THE GULF. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
IN THE HIGH END EXERCISE CAUTION THIS MORNING BUT SHOULD STAY BELOW
SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA BEFORE FALLING OFF SLIGHTLY THIS AFTERNOON.
SEAS WILL FOLLOW SUIT AND COME UP TO AROUND 3 FEET. SURFACE RIDGE TO
THE NORTH WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AND RESULT IN PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS HIGHER VALUES THEN
FORECAST BASED ON POTENTIAL TRACK OF TROPICAL SYSTEM THROUGH THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR THIS POSSIBILITY AND ITS
AFFECTS ON THE LOCAL FORECAST.

MEFFER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 90 60 92 67 / 0 0 10 10
BTR 93 61 93 69 / 0 0 10 10
ASD 91 62 91 72 / 0 0 10 10
MSY 92 71 90 74 / 0 0 10 10
GPT 91 65 91 72 / 0 0 10 10
PQL 92 63 90 71 / 0 0 10 10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.

[dkmac]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
334 AM CDT TUE SEP 14 2010

.SHORT TERM...

A RATHER COOL MORNING IS BEING OBSERVED ACROSS THE CWA...AS TEMPS
IN THE 60S ARE PRETTY COMMON ACROSS THE AREA. A CONTINUED RIDGE
INFLUENCE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL KEEP A DRY PATTERN ACROSS
THE AREA THIS PERIOD. THE SUNNY DAYS AND MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHTS WORDING
WILL BE USED FREQUENTLY IN THE SHORT TERM...AS FEW CLOUDS WILL BE
OBSERVED WITH A VERY DRY ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE. MODELS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE STARTING TO BREAK DOWN AND SLIDE
EAST DURING THE 24 TO 48 HR TIME PERIOD...THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS
TO START SHIFTING TO A SOUTHEAST COMPONENT ON WEDNESDAY. AS A
RESULT OF THE EXPECTED WIND SHIFT SOME MOISTURE RETURN CAN BE
EXPECTED...THUS 20 CENTS ARE ADVERTISED ACROSS THE EXTREME
SOUTHEAST AND COASTAL LA PARISHES ON WEDNESDAY.

TEMPS ARE NEAR GFS GUIDANCE WITH MINS RUNNING NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW CLIMO VALUES IN THE SHORT TERM...WHILE MAXES CONTINUE TO
TREND ABOVE CLIMO VALUES.

PARKER

.LONG TERM...

ALTHOUGH THE SURFACE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN SOME...THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL REMAIN CONSISTENT. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BASICALLY
CONTINUE TO ACT AS A BLOCKER...KEEPING APPROACHING WEATHER SYSTEMS
AWAY FROM THE AREA. SOME ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CAN BE
EXPECTED WITH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE INCREASE. MODELS TRY TO
SLIDE A FRONT INTO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING...BUT
MY CONFIDENCE REMAIN FAIRLY SHALLOW WITH LACK OF SUFFICIENT UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT.

A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CARIBBEAN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE A
WESTWARD TRACK. THE EXTENDED MODELS ARE TRYING TO INTENSIFY THIS
FEATURE...BUT EVEN IF IT DOES IT WILL REMAIN A NON THREAT AS
IT SHOULD CROSS THE YUCATAN AND CONTINUE A WESTWARD TRACK INTO
MEXICO. POWERFUL IGOR AND JULIA CONTINUE TO BE FORECAST AS FISH
STORMS.

PARKER

&&

.AVIATION...

NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM YESTERDAY TO TODAY. LIGHT EAST TO NE WINDS WILL
PERSIST WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SERN CONUS. ONLY LOCATION THAT
REALLY NEEDS MORE THAN 1 LINE TAFS IS GPT WHICH WILL LIKELY BE
AFFECTED BY LAND/SEA BREEZE. OTHERWISE...VFR AT ALL SITES THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

MEFFER

&&

.MARINE...

WINDS AND SEAS HAVE FALLEN OFF DECENTLY OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS.
HIGH PRESSURE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA WILL SHIFT EAST DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR SO AS AN UPPER TROUGH TRACKS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
MEANWHILE...A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WESTERN
CARRIBEAN AND INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE BEFORE ENDING UP IN MEXICO.
AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE FEATURES WILL RESULT
IN PERSISTENT EASTERLY WINDS FOR THE REST OF THIS WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND. DECENT FETCH AND DURATION SHOULD BRING SEA HTS UP INTO THE 4
TO 5 FOOT RANGE. THE PATTERN WILL CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK OTHER THAN A WEAKER GRADIENT BUT EASTERLY WINDS SHOULD
CONTINUE.

MEFFER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 91 65 91 68 / 0 0 10 10
BTR 93 69 92 73 / 0 0 10 10
ASD 91 71 90 72 / 0 0 10 10
MSY 91 76 90 75 / 0 0 20 20
GPT 90 72 90 72 / 0 0 10 10
PQL 90 70 90 69 / 0 0 10 10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.

[dkmac]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
349 AM CDT WED SEP 15 2010

.SHORT TERM...

RIDGING CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA SO THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN
RATHER CONSISTENT IN THE SHORT TERM. THE MODELS ARE TRENDING
WARMER ON MINS AS DEW POINTS SLOWLY INCREASE...AND THIS MAY BE
THE LAST DAY FOR COOLER MORNING TEMPS IN THIS SEVEN DAY PERIOD SO
ENJOY. SOME ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY BE SEEN OFFSHORE...BUT
POPS WILL REMAIN NEAR ZERO ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA IN THE SHORT
TERM. THE TEMP FORECAST CONTINUES TO RIDE WITH GFS GUIDANCE.

KARL CONTINUES TO BE A NON THREAT TO THE AREA...AS IT IS HEADED
INTO THE YUCATAN BEFORE REEMERGING IN THE GULF ON A WESTWARD
TRACK INTO MEXICO.

.LONG TERM...

THE EXTENDED MODELS HOLD THE INFLUENCE OF THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE ENTIRE SEVEN DAY PERIOD. ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS IN THE FORECAST THIS
WEEKEND...AND WE CARRY IT WITH RESPECT THROUGH THE END OF PERIOD.
THE EXTENDED TEMPS VALUES CONTINUE TO TREND ABOVE SEASONAL CLIMO
VALUES AS WELL.

SOMETHING WORTH MENTIONING...EXTENDED MODELS MAKE AN INTERESTING
SHIFT TO THE EAST WITH THE UPPER RIDGE DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE
NEXT WORK WEEK. WHAT/S REALLY GRABBING ATTENTION IS A TROPICAL
FEATURE IN THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN AT THE END OF WEEK...AROUND 228
TO 240 HRS OUT. THIS WILL BE WORTH WATCHING...SO LETS SEE HOW THIS
PLAYS OUT.

PARKER

&&

.AVIATION...

LIGHT EAST WINDS TO BE MORE SOUTHEAST TODAY AND LIKELY INCREASING TO
LESS THAN 10 KTS WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SERN CONUS. EXPECT
SCT MID LVL CLOUDS JUST ABOVE 3KFT TO DEVELOP LATE MORNING AND INTO
THE AFTN HRS. VFR AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

MEFFER

&&

.MARINE...

WINDS AND SEAS BEGINNING TO COME BACK UP...NOW AT AROUND 3 FEET IN
THE OUTER WATERS. WINDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE TO EXERCISE CAUTION FOR
MUCH OF THE COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE NORTHEAST
OF THE AREA WILL SHIFT EAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS AN UPPER
TROUGH TRACKS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. MEANWHILE...TROPICAL STORM
KARL WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WESTERN CARRIBEAN AND INTO THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE BEFORE ENDING UP IN MEXICO. AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THESE FEATURES WILL RESULT IN PERSISTENT EASTERLY WINDS FOR
THE REST OF THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. DECENT FETCH AND
DURATION SHOULD BRING SEA HTS UP INTO THE 4 TO 5 FOOT RANGE. THE
PATTERN WILL CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK OTHER THAN A
WEAKER GRADIENT BUT EASTERLY WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE.

MEFFER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 92 68 91 70 / 0 0 10 0
BTR 93 73 93 73 / 0 10 10 0
ASD 92 72 91 73 / 10 10 10 0
MSY 91 76 91 76 / 10 10 10 10
GPT 91 72 90 73 / 10 10 10 0
PQL 91 70 90 69 / 0 0 10 0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.

[dkmac]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
402 AM CDT THU SEP 16 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A DEEP 1006MB LOW OVER SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN AND A RIDGE AXIS FROM THE EASTERN SEABOARD TO EAST
TEXAS. IN ADDITION...LOWERED PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH TS KARL HAS
CREATED A PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS NORTH GULF. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS
SHOWED AN ELONGATED ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION FROM TEXAS TO THE
EAST GULF...PLACING A WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW FROM OKLAHOMA TO
SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI. PW PLOTS SHOWED A
WEDGE OF DRY AIR FROM THE EASTERN SEABOARD TO COASTAL MISSISSIPPI
AND DEEPER MOISTURE RESIDING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND
POINTS WESTWARD.


&&

.SHORT TERM...
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH BELOW NORMAL RAIN CHANCES TODAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL SLOWLY EXPAND EAST AND ADVECT
IN DRY AIR FROM THE EAST TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...PW VALUES WILL
HOVER AROUND 1.8 INCHES SOUTH AND WEST OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN
TODAY. MOISTURE ALONG WITH INTENSE SURFACE HEATING WILL CREATE AN
UNSTABLE ATM CONDUCIVE FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION...WILL INSERT A
SLIGHT CHANCE SOUTH AND WEST OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN FOR TODAY. EAST
FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL ADVECT IN MORE DRY ACROSS LAND AND
MARINE FORECAST AREAS TONIGHT AND CURTAIL RAIN CHANCES TO NIL
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. RELATIVELY DRY AIR WILL YIELD A LARGE
RANGE FOR MAX AND MIN TEMPS MAINLY NORTH OF THE LAKE AND COASTAL
MISSISSIPPI GOING INTO THE WEEKEND. LOW TEMPS WILL BECOME
SATURATED NEAR THE SURFACE MAINLY OVER NORTH ZONES AND CREATE
PATCHY FOG FRIDAY MORNING AND SATURDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...
A NEARLY STABLE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL ALLOW THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH
TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST FROM THE MID SOUTH SATURDAY TO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS BY NEXT WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE...THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF
THE HIGH OVER THE WEEKEND WILL SLIGHTLY INCREASE THICKNESS LAYERS.
AS A RESULT...DAY TIME MAX TEMPS ON SAT WILL REACH THE MID 90S FOR
SEVERAL POINTS...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY. AS THE HIGH DRIFTS EAST...THICKNESS
LAYERS WILL DECREASE AND AFTERNOON MAX WILL INCH LOWER EACH DAY
THROUGH NEXT WEEK. PW VALUES WILL REMAIN BELOW 1.4 INCHES
SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY AND RAIN CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED
THIS WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS MORNING WILL BECOME SE/ESE IN THE 5 TO
10 KTS RANGE. SW AND COASTAL MS SHOULD BE THE ONLY SITES THAT SEE BR
THIS MORNING BUT DON/T EXPECT VERY LOW VIS...HIGH END MVFR VIS.
OTHERWISE...VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD AS DIURNAL LOW/MID
LEVEL CU FIELD DEVELOPS.

MEFFER

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS LOOK TO HAVE STABILIZED RIGHT AT 15 KTS AND SEAS AROUND 4 FT
IN THE OUTER WATERS. HAVE DECIDED TO EXTEND THE EXERCISE CAUTION
INTO THE LATER MORNING HOURS AND MAY NEED TO GO FURTHER.HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST HAS MOVED OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC. AS IT
TRACKS EAST IT WILL BE QUICKLY REPLACED BY ANOTHER RIDGE. UNTIL
THEN...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN TROPICAL STORM KARL OVER THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE AND THIS RIDGE WILL KEEP EASTERLY WINDS ELEVATED.
DECENT FETCH AND DURATION SHOULD KEEP SEA HTS UP INTO THE 4 TO 5
FOOT RANGE THROUGH THIS PERIOD AND WELL BEYOND AS THE PATTERN WILL
CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MEFFER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 92 68 94 66 / 0 10 0 0
BTR 93 72 95 72 / 10 10 10 0
ASD 92 72 93 69 / 0 10 10 0
MSY 91 76 92 75 / 20 10 10 0
GPT 90 74 92 71 / 0 10 0 0
PQL 91 70 94 68 / 0 10 0 0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.

[dkmac]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
432 AM CDT FRI SEP 17 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS A 1006MB LOW OVER NORTHEAST CONUS WITH A
COLD FRONT FROM THE LOW SOUTHWEST TO NORTH MISSISSIPPI TO NORTH
CENTRAL TEXAS. IN ADDITION...A WEAK RIDGE AXIS WAS NOTED FROM THE
CAROLINAS TO THE NORTHEAST GULF. LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH HU
KARL HAS CREATED A MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE NORTH
CENTRAL GULF BUT NO PRESSURE DIFFERENCES OVER LAND AREAS. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS THE RIDGE FROM THE ROCKIES TO THE EAST GULF. A
SHORT WAVE WAS LOCATED OVER WEST TEXAS AND AN INVERTED TROUGH
ASSOCIATED FROM KARL TO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
TRANQUILLY WARM TODAY AS THE MAIN TROUGH DEEPENS ALONG THE EAST
SEABOARD AND THE HIGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH
TONIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF DRY CONTINENTAL AIR OVER MID SOUTH AND
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND DRY AIR WEST OF IGOR WILL MAINTAIN A
RELATIVELY DRY ATM OVER AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGGING SOUTH TO THE NORTHERN
ZONES BY SAT...ADIABATIC COMPRESSION WILL OCCUR SOUTH OF THE FRONT
TODAY AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY. ALSO...DRAINAGE DRY AIR WILL MIX DOWN
TO THE SURF EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH THE WEEKEND. IN ADDITION...A
SLIGHT INCREASED IN THICKNESS LAYERS WILL OCCUR AS THE HIGH
SHIFTS EAST OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY OVER THE WEEKEND. MANY POINTS
WILL SEE AFTERNOON TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S TODAY...SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY. DRY ATM WITH PW VALUES HOVERING AROUND 1.4 INCHES
TODAY THROUGH SUN...THEN BELOW 1 INCH MONDAY THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY...RAIN CHANCES WILL BE SLIM TO NIL. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL
FINALLY ADVECT IN SOME MOISTURE WITH PW VALUES INCREASING UP TO
1.5 INCHES WED AND THURSDAY...WILL ADD OR MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE
ACROSS THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. AS THE UPPER LEVEL
HIGH SHIFT EAST...HEIGHTS WILL LOWER AND TEMP PROFILE WILL YIELD
SURF AFTERNOON TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
CIRRUS SHIELD FROM KARL AFFECTING MOST OF THE AREA. SHOWERS HAVE
DEVELOPED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS BUT SHOULD REMAIN OFFSHORE TODAY.
SCT LOW END VFR CLOUDS EXPECTED TODAY ALONG WITH EARLY WINDS AROUND
10 KTS. VFR WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

MEFFER
&&

.MARINE...
WINDS LOOK TO HAVE STABILIZED AT 10 TO 15 KTS AND SEAS AROUND 4 FT
IN THE OUTER WATERS. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN WEAK ENOUGH TO HOLD OUT ON
EXERCISE CAUTION TODAY. A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO APPROACH THE
COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT BUT SHOULD STALL AND SHIFT BACK NORTH
FAIRLY QUICKLY. PERSISTENT EASTERLY WINDS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOULD KEEP SEA HTS UP INTO THE 4 TO 5 FOOT RANGE.
STRONG UPPER RIDGE TO THE EAST AND SFC TROUGH SETTING UP OVER THE
WESTERN LOWER PLAINS WILL POSSIBLY BRING SERLY FLOW UP MID NEXT
WEEK.

MEFFER
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 94 67 95 66 / 0 0 0 10
BTR 95 71 96 69 / 10 0 10 10
ASD 94 71 94 67 / 0 0 10 10
MSY 92 76 93 75 / 10 0 10 10
GPT 93 72 94 72 / 0 0 10 0
PQL 93 68 95 67 / 0 0 10 0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.

[dkmac]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
347 AM CDT SAT SEP 18 2010

.SHORT TERM...

VERY LITTLE CHANGE OF NOTE IN THE SHORT TERM...AS RIDGING
CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE AREA AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. I WENT A
TAD BELOW GUIDANCE ON TEMPS FOR TODAY...AS CIRRUS SHOULD DISTURB
THE MAXIMUM HEATING SOMEWHAT THIS AFTERNOON AND HOLD HIGHS TO THE
LOWER 90S. WE CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY...MAINLY IN THE COASTAL PARISHES...BUT OVERALL RAIN
CHANCES WILL REMAIN NEAR ZERO. BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE INCREASES A
TAD ON SUNDAY...AND WE COULD SEE MORNING LOW CLOUDS RETURN TO THE
AREA ON TOMORROW.

.LONG TERM...

PERSISTENCE CONTINUES IN THE EXTENDED PACKAGE AS THE UPPER RIDGE
REMAINS DOMINANT. CHANCES FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE IN THE MIDDLE OF THE WORK
WEEK...AS BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE BECOMES MORE ABUNDANT. TEMPS
CONTINUE TO LINGER ABOVE CLIMO VALUES...SO NO CHANGE IN THE WARM
TEMPS AS WE TOWARD THE END OF THE SUMMER SEASON.

PARKER

&&

.MARINE...

THERE MAY SOME LIGHT FOG AT KHUM...KMCB...AND KHSA AROUND 10-12Z
THIS MORNING...AS A DECENT SURFACE INVERSION DEVELOPS. WINDS HAVE
DROPPED OFF TO CALM AND ALLOW A BETTER FOG FORMATION ENVIRONMENT FOR
SOME AREAS. ALL IN ALL...TEMPO GROUPS WITH VIS DOWN TO 4SM AT TIMES
MAY OCCUR AT MCB...HUM AND BTR. VERY ISOLATED CONVECTION IS
POSSIBLE SOUTH AND WEST OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN THIS AFTERNOON. WILL
USE VCTS FOR HUM...MSY AND NEW. THE OTHER FIVE TAF SITES SHOULD STAY
CLEAR OF ANY CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE AT ALL TERMINALS AS THE PREVAILING CONDITION. ANOTHER
CHANCE OF LIGHT FOG MAY OCCUR SUNDAY MORNING. 18

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A VERY PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL GULF WILL YIELD WINDS IN THE 15 TO
20 KNOT RANGE THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...PRESSURE FIELDS INCREASE
SLOWLY ACROSS THE GULF AS REMNANTS OF KARL WEAKEN THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. IN GENERAL...THE FLOW WILL BE BELOW ANY ADVISORY AND BUT
IN THE CAUTION CRITERIA WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER THIS MORNING.
BY MID NEXT WEEK...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT MAY INCREASE AGAIN AS A
WEAK TROPICAL WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE GULF.
THIS MAY PUSH WINDS UP INTO THE CAUTION RANGE FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. SEAS MAY BUILD TO 5 TO 6 FEET RANGE WELL OFFSHORE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. 18

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 94 67 93 68 / 0 10 10 10
BTR 95 72 94 71 / 10 10 10 10
ASD 93 73 92 71 / 10 10 10 10
MSY 92 76 92 74 / 10 10 10 10
GPT 93 74 91 73 / 10 0 10 10
PQL 94 70 92 69 / 10 0 10 10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.

[dkmac]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
803 AM CDT SUN SEP 19 2010

.UPDATE...
.SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
SIMILAR SOUNDING TO YESTERDAY MORNING...THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS
RELATIVELY DRY WITH A FEW AREAS OF MOISTURE NEAR THE SURFACE AND
850 MB...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE IS 1.86 INCHES. A FEW CIRRUS
CLOUDS WERE PRESENT AT LAUNCH WITH CUMULI FORM CLOUDS BEGINNING TO
DEVELOP...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. A SURFACE INVERSION IS PRESENT ALONG WITH A
SECONDARY INVERSION NEAR 3000 FEET. WINDS ARE OUT OF THE EAST
THROUGH THE MID LEVELS AND OUT OF THE WEST ALOFT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 AM CDT SUN SEP 19 2010/

SHORT TERM...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE AREA WILL KEEP THE FORECAST
FAIRLY PERSISTENT THIS PERIOD. CIRRUS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA
AGAIN TODAY...AS HIGH CLOUD BLOW OFF FROM THE REMNANTS OF KARL
VISIT THE AREA. TEMPS WILL ONCE AGAIN REACH THE LOWER TO MID
90S THIS AFTERNOON...AS CLOUDS HAVE SHOWN LITTLE HINDRANCE TO
INSOLATION PROCESS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CAN/T BE RULED
OUT ACROSS THE AREA...BUT SHOULD BE MAINLY OBSERVED DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THE SHORT TERM TEMPERATURE TREND WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN
ABOVE CLIMO VALUES AS LONG AS THE RIDGE DOMINATES.

LONG TERM...

THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD ITS INFLUENCE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PACKAGE...THUS VERY LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT
SEVEN DAYS. THE EXTENDED MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME BREAK DOWN IN THE
RIDGE DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE NEXT WEEKEND...AS MODELS SHIFT
THE RIDGE EAST. A STRONG TROUGH THEN SLIDES INTO THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...DRIVING A FRONT THROUGH THE AREA POSSIBLY ON NEXT SUNDAY.
THIS SCENARIO GIVES A LITTLE HOPE FOR A FALL TYPE WEATHER
RETURN...BUT FINGERS MAY NEED TO CROSSED TO BREAK THE CURRENT
TREND.

PARKER

AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. A FEW
HOURS OF MVFR VSBYS DUE TO LIGHT FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE TOWARD
DAYBREAK THIS MORNING...MAINLY AT HUM AND MCB AND AGAIN MONDAY
MORNING.

MARINE...

A VERY PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. PRESSURE FIELDS WILL SLOWLY
INCREASE ACROSS THE SOUTH GULF AND ALLOW WINDS TO DECREASE TODAY
THROUGH MONDAY. BY MID WEEK...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT MAY INCREASE
AGAIN AS THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND
LOWERED PRESSURE FIELDS REMAINS OF THE SOUTH GULF. THIS MAY PUSH
WINDS UP INTO THE CAUTION RANGE FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. SEAS MAY
BUILD TO 5 TO 6 FEET RANGE WELL OFFSHORE THROUGH THE PERIOD. 18

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 93 69 94 69 / 10 10 10 10
BTR 95 71 94 73 / 10 10 10 10
ASD 93 72 92 72 / 10 10 10 10
MSY 92 75 93 76 / 10 10 10 10
GPT 92 74 92 73 / 10 10 10 10
PQL 93 70 93 70 / 10 10 10 10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.

[dkmac]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
354 AM CDT MON SEP 20 2010

.SHORT TERM...

SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING STILL SHOWS MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
LINGERING ACROSS THE AREA. BROAD RIDGING ACROSS THE AREA WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...SO FORECAST WILL REMAIN
PERSISTENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK. FORECAST TEMPS WILL
REMAIN ABOVE CLIMO VALUES WITH MINS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S...AND
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S. ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN IN THE GRIDS AGAIN TODAY...AS PW/S AROUND TWO
INCHES ACROSS THE AREA WILL ENHANCE SOME CONVECTION W/ AFTERNOON
HEATING. THUNDERSTORM WORDING WILL CONTINUE TO BE LEFT OUT OF THE
TEXT PACKAGE...DUE TO SUCH ISOLATED NATURE TSTORM ACTIVITY.

.LONG TERM...

THE EXTENDED MODELS HAVE SHOWN SOME CONSISTENCY WITH SLIDING THE
UPPER RIDGE EAST AT THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...AND SLIDING A
TROUGH INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DURING THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. MODELS HAVE ALSO SHOWN MORE AGGRESSIVENESS WITH THESE
FEATURES AS THEY DRIVE A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON
SATURDAY...AND ADVERTISE DEW POINTS AND TEMPS DROPPING OFF INTO
THE LOWER 60S IN THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND. SUMMER TYPE TEMPS
MAY LINGER A FEW DAYS INTO THE FALL...BUT ACCORDING TO THIS CHANGE
IS ON THE WAY.

PARKER

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING WITH VERY LIGHT
OR CALM WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING. RELATIVELY STRONGER SOUTHEAST
WINDS MAY NOT DECOUPLE ALONG THE COAST TUESDAY MORNING. A FEW HOURS
OF MVFR VSBY DUE TO LIGHT FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR DAY BREAK THIS
MORNING AND TUESDAY MORNING...MAINLY AT MCB AND HUM. EXPECT EASTERLY
WINDS IN THE MORNING...BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY IN THE AFTERNOON AS
THE SEA BREEZE MOVES INLAND. 18

&&

.MARINE...

EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH
THE WEEK. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO
WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE EARLY TUESDAY ALLOWING WINDS TO INCREASE
BACK INTO EXERCISE CAUTION RANGE. THESE INCREASED WINDS SHOULD
PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY...AS STRONG SURFACE RIDGING OVER
THE SOUTHEAST AND A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO INTERACT. WITH INCREASED WINDS...SEAS WILL ALSO RISE
INTO THE 5 TO 6 FOOT RANGE OVER THE OUTER WATERS...AND 3 TO 4 FEET
OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS. 18

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 93 69 92 71 / 10 10 10 10
BTR 94 72 92 73 / 10 10 10 10
ASD 92 73 92 73 / 10 10 10 10
MSY 91 76 91 76 / 10 10 10 10
GPT 93 74 92 75 / 10 10 10 10
PQL 94 71 92 71 / 10 10 10 10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.

[dkmac]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
331 AM CDT TUE SEP 21 2010

.SHORT TERM...

PERSISTENCE REMAINS THE POPULAR WORD IN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...AS
BROAD LEVEL UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REMAINS DOMINANT ACROSS THE AREA.
SCT/BKN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE OBSERVED ACROSS THE AREA AGAIN
TODAY...MAINLY IN ASSOCIATION W/ A WEAK TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN
GULF. THE MID LEVELS WILL SEE A LITTLE BIT MORE DRY AIR
TODAY...THUS ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE
JUST A TAD HARDER TO COME BY THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA. I PRETTY MUCH FOLLOWED GUIDANCE ON
TEMPS...AND CONTINUED TO KEEP THE TREND ABOVE CLIMO VALUES.

.LONG TERM...

VERY LITTLE CHANGE OF NOTE IN THE EXTENDED MODELS...AS THEY REMAIN
CONSISTENT WITH SLIDING THE UPPER RIDGE EAST. MODELS HAVE ALSO
SHOWN SOME CONSISTENCY WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE APPROACHING
FRONT THIS WEEKEND...HOLDING ON TO A SATURDAY MORNING TIME FRAME. THE
ONLY OTHER SIGNIFICANT THING TO NOTE IS THE THE TROPICAL WAVE IN
THE CARIBBEAN. NHC CURRENTLY HAS A LOW CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT OVER
THE NEXT 48 HRS...BUT THIS AREA IS STILL WORTH WATCHING ESPECIALLY
WITH THE RIDGE SLIDING EAST AND ALLOWING ACCESS TO THE GULF.

PARKER

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE MOST PART THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THE ONLY EXCEPTION THIS MORNING WILL BE SOME LIGHT PATCHY
FOG AROUND THE AREA CAUSING BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO
VISIBILITIES REDUCING TO AROUND 5SM. SOME LIGHT FOG IS ALREADY
OCCURRING AT KMCB...KGPT AND KHUM. ONCE ANY FOG THAT DOES DEVELOP
BURNS OFF DURING THE MID MORNING HOURS ONLY SOME HIGH CLOUDS AND
VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN DURING THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...

EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...AS STRONG RIDGING TO THE NORTH
AND EAST OF THE AREA AND LOWERING PRESSURES OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF
OF MEXICO INTERACT. THIS WILL INCREASE WINDS TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS AND
LIKELY REQUIRE AT LEAST EXERCISE CAUTION STATEMENTS LATER TONIGHT OR
ON WEDNESDAY OUTSIDE OF THE SOUNDS AND THE PROTECTED WATERS. SEAS
WILL ALSO RISE...WITH SEAS IN THE 4 TO 6 FOOT RANGE POSSIBLE OVER
THE OUTER WATERS BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. WINDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE
AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE WEEKEND AS THE HIGH TO THE NORTH WEAKENS AND
MOVES TO THE EAST. FOCUS WILL THEN TURN TO A TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS AND INTO THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES AND AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 93 70 91 70 / 10 10 20 10
BTR 93 71 93 72 / 10 10 20 10
ASD 93 72 91 73 / 10 10 20 10
MSY 92 76 91 75 / 10 10 20 10
GPT 93 75 92 73 / 10 10 20 10
PQL 93 71 92 70 / 10 10 20 10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.

[dkmac]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
347 AM CDT WED SEP 22 2010

.SHORT TERM...
RATHER STABLE PATTERN IN PLACE THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE IN LOW TO MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE EXTENDING FROM
THE ATLANTIC EAST OF FLORIDA INTO THE EASTERN GULF. DESPITE SE
FLOW IN LOW TO MID LEVELS...MOISTURE PROFILES NOT TOO IMPRESSIVE
MOST LIKELY DUE TO UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST
PRECIP WATER SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 1.5 INCHES IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS
WHICH SHOULD BE AMPLE ENOUGH FOR 20 PERCENT DAYTIME POPS DRIVEN BY
DAYTIME HEATING. PERSISTENT SE WIND FLOW SHOULD KEEP TEMPS FAIRLY
CONSISTENT...AND ABOVE NORMAL..WITH HIGHS AROUND 90 TO LOW 90S
AND LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S. PERSISTENT SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE ABOVE NORMAL TIDES..1 TO 1.5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL. WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION IN HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AND MONITOR FOR
NEED FOR STATEMENTS. 21

.LONG TERM...
BOTH GFS AND ECMWF REMAIN IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT UPPER LOW
DROPS INTO KS/MO AREA BY WEEKEND AND MIGRATES SLOWLY EWD WITH
TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH TO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW A SURFACE FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SOMETIME LATE
SUNDAY TO MONDAY NIGHT. DIFFERENCE IN TIMING OF FRONTAL PASSAGE
CONTINUES TO PERSIST WITH 00Z RUNS BEING A BIT SLOWER THAN THE
12Z RUN. SUNDAY LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN AT THE CURRENT
TIME. MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE WEEKEND PERIOD BY NUDGING POPS
UPWARD SOME AND AND CONTINUING TO MENTION POPS INTO MONDAY TO
ACCOUNT FOR SLOWER FRONTAL PASSAGE AND UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST AT EXTENDED
PERIODS. 21

.AVIATION...
CURRENT OBS SHOWING LIGHT SE WINDS ALONG THE COAST AND NEARLY CALM
CONDITIONS INLAND. EXPECT THESE WINDS TO INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE
MORNING HOURS WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20
KTS. TSRA LOOK TO BE TOO ISOLATED IN NATURE TO HAVE TEMPO GROUPS BUT
TAFS MAY NEED TO BE AMENDED IN THE AFTN PERIODS. MVFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE WITH BR DEVELOPMENT AROUND THE BTR METRO AND MCB AREAS BUT
VFR WILL PREVAIL OTHERWISE.

MEFFER

&&

.MARINE...
EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH
SATURDAY. WINDS HAVE INCREASED SLIGHTLY TO A SOLID 15 KTS SO HAVE
EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINE THROUGH TODAY. AS A RESULT...TIDE LEVELS
ARE RUNNING AROUND A FOOT ABOVE NORMAL. THEY SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED
THROUGH SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE COASTAL WATERS
SUNDAY AND MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY. TIMING OF THIS FRONT MAY
CHANGE BEFORE FROPA AS MODELS SEEM TO HAVE SOME INCONSISTENCY WITH
THE ATTM. EITHER WAY...COULD END UP A WITH A DECENT PERIOD OF
OFFSHORE WINDS ACROSS THE NRN GULF.

MEFFER
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 90 68 91 71 / 20 10 20 10
BTR 92 70 91 73 / 20 10 20 10
ASD 90 71 90 75 / 20 10 20 10
MSY 90 74 89 76 / 20 10 20 10
GPT 91 73 89 75 / 20 10 20 10
PQL 91 72 89 71 / 20 10 20 10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.