New Orleans Local Weather thread

[dkmac]

Mild temps with a good chance of rain.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
301 AM CDT MON MAR 14 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
STATIONARY FRONT IS SITUATED ROUGHLY EAST-WEST THROUGH NORTH
CAROLINA...TENNESSEE AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS. A SURFACE LOW IS
LOCATED AT THE END OF THE FRONT...CENTERED OVER WESTERN ARKANSAS.
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW SOUTHWESTWARD INTO SOUTHWEST
TEXAS. WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA.

LOCALLY...SOUTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE TO BRING MOISTURE RICH AIR INTO
THE AREA...WITH DEWPOINTS NEAR OR EXCEEDING 60 DEGREES ACROSS MOST
OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S.
PATCHY FOG BEGINNING TO DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY TODAY...FORCING THE SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT EASTWARD AS
WELL. HAVE BUMPED UP POPS A BIT FOR THIS AFTERNOON...AS MODELS NOW
INDICATE A HIGHER CHANCE OF WITH PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS AND TSTORMS.
THE FRONT SHOULD BE APPROACHING THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...AND WILL PROGRESS SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH
THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. EXPECT THE FRONT TO BE THROUGH
THE WHOLE AREA BY DAYBREAK.

AS OF THE LATEST UPDATE...THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER IS
INDICATING A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN
HALF OF THE AREA. ANY STRONG OR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY
BE LOCATED IMMEDIATELY ALONG THE FRONT...WHERE A SQUALL LINE WITH
A FEW BOWING SEGMENTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN
MARGINAL WITH MIXED LAYER CAPE GENERALLY HOVERING AROUND 500
J/KG...AND WIND SHEAR WILL BE MOSTLY UNIDIRECTIONAL...MAKING THE
MAIN THREAT STRAIGHT LINE WIND GUSTS. WITH A FREEZING LEVEL OVER
10KFT...THE THREAT OF HAIL WILL BE MINIMAL.

BEHIND THE FRONT...DEEP LAYER RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA.
EXPECT TEMPERATURES GENERALLY NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...WITH A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK. BY FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...EXPECT AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES TO BE BREAKING THE 80 DEGREE MARK. NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANCES OF RAIN BEYOND TOMORROW NIGHT...AS THE NEXT SYSTEM WON/T
APPROACH THE LOCAL AREA UNTIL MID NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
SLOWED DOWN STRATUS FORMATION...AND MAY PREVENT WIDESPREAD FOG FROM
FORMING. STILL EXPECTING SOME IFR CEILINGS AT KMCB...KBTR AND KHUM
FOR A FEW HOURS AROUND SUNRISE BEFORE RETURNING TO VFR CONDITIONS.
EXPECT A PERIOD OF SHRA/TSRA AROUND SUNSET AND WILL LIKELY HOLD ON
TO THE PROB30 GROUPS FOR THE EVENING. ANTICIPATE MVFR CEILINGS AFTER
THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE FORECAST. SURFACE RIDGE CENTERED
OVER THE FAR NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL SLIDE FURTHER EAST
WITH THE APPROACHING SYSTEM. THE LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS ARKANSAS
THROUGH NORTHERN MS...ALABAMA AND MIDDLE TN. IT WILL NOT BE TERRIBLY
DEEP AS WELL AS THE SURFACE RIDGE NOT TOO STRONG RESULTING IN ONLY A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN SERLY WINDS FROM GRADIENT FORCE. WITH ONLY A
GLANCING BLOW TO THE COASTAL WATERS FROM THE PENDANT FRONT MEANS
WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT POST FRONTAL BUT OFFSHORE NEVERTHELESS.
RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK IN ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. SEAS SHOULD
MOSTLY BE IN THE 2 TO 3 FOOT RANGE ALL WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  75  49  70  42 /  60  50   0   0
BTR  77  52  71  46 /  60  50   0   0
ASD  75  56  72  46 /  40  50  10   0
MSY  75  58  70  52 /  30  40  10   0
GPT  72  58  72  47 /  30  50  10   0
PQL  74  57  74  44 /  30  50  10   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE. 

[dkmac]

Not much rain here last night. Mild and sunny day today. Will reach the 80's by the weekend.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
230 AM CDT TUE MAR 15 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER WESTERN KENTUCKY WITH A COLD
FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH/SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA
AND INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS
LOCATED ALONG THE FRONT...OTHERWISE THE RADAR IS CLEAR. LOCALLY...
TEMPS BEHIND THE FRONT ARE GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S WHILE TEMPS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT ARE IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
NOT A WHOLE LOT TO DISCUSS WITH THIS PACKAGE WITH QUIET CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE ITS EASTWARD
PROGRESSION AWAY FROM THE AREA TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE AREA. CLEARING SKIES WILL ALLOW PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...BUT THE
COOLER AIR MASS WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S TODAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE NEAR THE AREA THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH DEEP LAYER RIDGING TAKING HOLD OF THE
AREA BY WEDNESDAY. AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EASTWARD LATE
IN THE WEEK...THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
OVER THE SERN CONUS. DESPITE THE INFLUX OF MOISTURE FROM THE
GULF...SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WILL QUASH ANY REAL CHANCES OF RAIN.
EXPECT A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEK WITH AFTERNOON TEMPS
NEARING OR SURPASSING THE 80 DEGREE MARK BY THURSDAY.

STILL SEEING SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE FAR EXTENDED...BUT IT
LOOKS THE NEXT SYSTEM WON/T AFFECT THE AREA UNTIL MID NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
A CLOUD DECK CONTAINING SOME MVFR AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN IFR CEILINGS
ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE LARGELY EAST OF THE TERMINAL SITES BY OR SLIGHTLY
AFTER 12Z. THEREAFTER...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT EACH OF THE
TAF SITES TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT. MVFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES DUE TO
LIGHT FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI
COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING AND STALL OUT OVER THE NORTH GULF
TONIGHT. THIS BOUNDARY WILL BECOME DIFFUSE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. A PERIOD OF OFFSHORE FLOW CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT TODAY. ONSHORE FLOW WILL RETURN BY LATE WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  65  39  73  47 /   0   0   0  10
BTR  68  43  75  51 /   0   0   0  10
ASD  68  45  73  50 /   0   0   0  10
MSY  68  49  72  55 /   0   0   0  10
GPT  69  45  72  51 /   0   0   0  10
PQL  69  46  72  49 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE. 

[dkmac]

Mid-70's today and sunny.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
242 AM CDT WED MAR 16 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
DOMINANT FEATURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS IS A 1025MB SURFACE
HIGH CENTERED OVER NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS
FROM EASTERN VIRGINIA SOUTHWESTWARD TO NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. TEMPS RANGE FROM UPPER 40S ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA TO THE MID 50S NEAR THE COAST. UNDER
CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT OR CALM WINDS... EXPECT TEMPS TO DROP A FEW
MORE DEGREES BEFORE SUNRISE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WITH HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING IN ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE LONG
HAUL...THERE WON/T BE MUCH TO DISCUSS FOR THE NEXT WEEK OR SO.

TRANQUIL WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH DEEP LAYER
RIDGING FORECAST TO TAKE HOLD OF THE AREA BY THURSDAY...KEEPING
ALL FRONTAL SYSTEMS WELL NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. EXPECT A
WARMING TREND OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS WITH AFTERNOON TEMPS
APPROACHING OR CROSSING THE 80 DEGREE MARK BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND RISING INTO THE LOW 80S BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WILL GENERALLY
SEE PERSISTENCE BEYOND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ENTRENCHED
OVER THE AREA. THE NEXT SYSTEM CURRENTLY FORECAST TO APPROACH THE
AREA NEXT TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY...WITH NO APPRECIABLE RAIN CHANCES
BEFORE THAT TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS TO LAST THROUGH TAF CYCLE. WILL INTRODUCE SOME
IFR DUE TO 1-2SM BR DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT WINDS AND REPRESENTATIVE LOW END WAVES/SEAS WILL CONTINUE INTO
THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST BRINGING WINDS TO A
SOUTHERLY DIRECTION. WINDS WILL ALSO BEGIN TO INCREASE IN SPEED
SUNDAY INTO THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK. NO HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE FCAST PERIOD THOUGH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  73  47  79  53 /   0   0   0   0
BTR  75  52  80  56 /   0   0   0   0
ASD  74  48  78  53 /   0   0   0   0
MSY  75  55  76  58 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  75  50  77  53 /   0   0   0   0
PQL  75  46  78  50 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE. 

[dkmac]

May hit 80 today with sunny skys. We're a week away from the next chance of rain.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
335 AM CDT THU MAR 17 2011

.SHORT TERM...
NO SEVERE WX EPISODES SEEN ON THE HORIZON JUST YET BUT FOG WILL BE
BACK IN THE FORECAST. AS MOISTURE RETURNS...IT WILL TRAVEL OVER
SOME COOL SHELF WATERS AND COOL LAND AREAS. DP TEMPS OFFSHORE
RUNNING IN THE LOW TO MID 60S WHILE WATER TEMPS NEAR SHORE ARE
IN THE MID 60. THAT IS WHERE RIVER WATER IS NOT INTERFERING. RIVER
WATER TEMPS AND WHERE RIVERS DUMP ARE IN THE LOWER 50S. IT WILL
BE IN AND AROUND THESE AREAS THAT FOG CONDITIONS WILL BE AT THEIR
WORST...NAMELY ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI AND ATCHAFALAYA RIVERS AND
AT THEIR DELTAS. FOG MAY BECOME DENSE TONIGHT OVER LAND AND
NEARSHORE WATERS TONIGHT DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER HEIGHT. WILL LET
12Z MODEL RUNS MOVE THE DECISION ON THE ISSUANCE OF A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE AREA BY
NEXT THURSDAY MORNING. THE FRONT SHOULD SLOW INITIALLY AS IT MOVES
INTO THE AREA BUT WILL GET ANOTHER SHOVE AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES SOUTHWARD OUT OF THE MIDWEST. THIS IS 8 DAYS OUT ATTM SO IT
IS DIFFICULT AT BEST TO DRAW ANY CONCLUSIONS ON HAZARDOUS WX.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE EARLY MORNING. SOME LIGHT FG/BR AND MAYBE LOW CIGS
COULD IMPACT TAFS THROUGH 14Z BUT AFTER THAT LOOK FOR VFR CONDITIONS
TO TAKE OVER AT ALL TERMINALS. WINDS WILL REMAIN RATHER LIGHT AND
OUT OF THE S-SE. /CAB/

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE TO DOMINATE THE MARINE ZONES FOR THE
FORESEEABLE FUTURE. THE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY WORK EAST AND ALLOW
SRLY-SERLY FLOW TO REMAIN OVER THE REGION BUT THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL
BE FAIRLY LIGHT. WAVES AND SEAS WILL BE ON THE LOW SIDE AS WELL. THE
ONE THING THE WINDS WILL DO IS TRANSPORT DEEPER MOISTURE OVER THE
REGION WITH DEWPOINTS CLIMBING HIGHER THAN THE WATER TEMPS AND THIS
COULD LEAD TO MARINE FOG OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF MORNINGS BEGINNING
WITH TONIGHT POSSIBLY. /CAB/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  79  53  81  53 /   0   0  10  10
BTR  80  56  82  57 /   0   0  10  10
ASD  78  53  79  55 /   0   0  10  10
MSY  76  58  79  59 /   0   0  10  10
GPT  77  53  78  55 /   0   0  10  10
PQL  78  50  79  53 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE. 

[dkmac]

Another day in the low 80's. Next chance of rain next Thursday. Might have to start watering the grass as I just dropped fertilizer last Monday.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
335 AM CDT FRI MAR 18 2011

.SHORT TERM...
FOG WILL BE THE WX MAKER THIS MORNING. ADVISORY COMING OUT FOR
AREAS OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI FOR THIS
MORNING. CLOUD COVER TO THE WEST OVER THE BATON ROUGE AREA SHOULD
HELP VIS STAY HIGHER. SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER WILL PROVIDE
AREAS OF FOG THOUGH SO WILL KEEP PATCHY FOG WORDING IN THESE
AREAS. THIS WILL BE THE FIGHT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL NIGHTS AS WE
TRY TO DETERIMINE THE EXTENT OF FOG DEVELOPMENT EACH NIGHT.
OTHERWISE A COLD FRONT WILL VISIT THURSDAY BRINGING A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF RAIN OTHERWISE DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...NUMEROUS TERMINALS EXPECTED TO FALL INTO IFR STATUS
BEFORE SUNRISE DUE TO EITHER VISBIES OR CIGS. MAINLY ALONG AND EAST
OF I-55 FOG LOOKS TO BE A PROBLEM AS PQL AND GPT HAVE ALREADY FALLEN
INTO LIFR STATUS DUE TO VISBIES. THIS FOG IS SLOWLY EXPANDING EAST
AND WILL IMPACT ASD/HSA HELPING THEM DROP INTO LIFR STATUS B/T
9-10Z.  ELSEWHERE ALONG THE SOUTHSHORE BOTH LOWERED VISBIES AND
DEVELOPING FOG WILL AFFECT THESE TERMINALS DROPPING THEM TO AT LEAST
IFR STATUS. CLOSER TOWARDS BTR AND MCB VISBIES COULD DROP BUT CIGS
LOOK LIKE THEY WILL BE THE BIGGER ISSUE THIS MORNING AS A DECK FROM
600-1800 FT CONTINUES TO PUSH IN FROM THE WEST. ALL TERMINALS WILL
BEGIN TO IMPROVE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE AND ALL BACK IN VFR STATUS
B/T 14-15Z. FOG AND LOW CIGS WILL BE A PROBLEM ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT
FOR ALL TERMINALS. /CAB/

&&

.MARINE...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE FOG
THINGS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY QUIET OVER THE COASTAL ZONES AS HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATES THE REGION UNTIL MID WEEK NEXT WEEK. THE CENTER
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY WORK EAST AND THIS WILL KEEP THE AREA
IN SRLY FLOW WHICH WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO CONTINUE TO STREAM IN.
THIS WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW OVERNIGHT LOW CLOUDS AROUND 200-300 FT
HIGH AND COULD EVENTUALLY LEAD TO FOG OVER SOME AREAS NEAR THE
COAST. TONIGHT AND SAT NIGHT. AS FOR EVERYTHING ELSE ONSHORE WINDS
WILL BE ON THE LIGHT END AND SEAS/WAVES WILL BE 3 FT OR LOWER UNTIL
MAYBE LATE NEXT WEEK AS A COLD FRONT TRIES TO MOVE IN. /CAB/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  81  53  81  53 /   0   0  10  10
BTR  83  59  82  56 /   0   0  10  10
ASD  80  54  80  55 /   0   0  10  10
MSY  80  60  79  57 /   0   0  10  10
GPT  78  54  79  53 /   0   0  10  10
PQL  80  50  82  52 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     LOWER JEFFERSON...LOWER LAFOURCHE...LOWER
     PLAQUEMINES...LOWER ST. BERNARD...LOWER
     TERREBONNE...ORLEANS...ST. CHARLES...ST. JOHN THE
     BAPTIST...ST. TAMMANY...TANGIPAHOA...UPPER
     JEFFERSON...UPPER LAFOURCHE...UPPER PLAQUEMINES...UPPER ST.
     BERNARD...UPPER TERREBONNE...AND WASHINGTON.

GM...NONE.
MS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     HAN****...HARRISON...JACKSON...PEARL RIVER...AND WALTHALL.

GM...NONE. 

[dkmac]

Pea soup outside right now. Mild day in the 80's and sunny.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
336 AM CDT SAT MAR 19 2011

.DISCUSSION...
IN SHORT...FEW CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST. CURRENT SURFACE
ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT IS LOCATED IN NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI
/SOUTHERN ARKANSAS. THIS BOUNDARY WILL NOT MAKE IT MUCH FARTHER
SOUTH THAN IS CURRENT LOCATION. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ALSO EXISTS
OVER THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. LIGHT SOUTHERLY
FLOW IS KEEPING MOISTURE LEVEL CONSISTENT. WITH THE PATTERN NOT
CHANGING OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS...ITS NO SURPRISE TO SEE FOG
DEVELOPING ALONG THE LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI COASTAL
PARISHES/COUNTIES AS WELL AS NEW ORLEANS METRO. HAVE ALREADY
ISSUED DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THESE AREAS. SINCE THIS IS
RADIATIONAL FOG AND NOT SEA FOG...EXPECT A QUICK BURNOFF AFTER
SUNRISE. STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REMAINING IN PLACE MEANS
DAYTIME HIGHS GOING TO CONTINUE TO BE MILD TODAY WITH TEMPS 5 TO
10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. ALL LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE 80 DEGREES OR
ABOVE EXCEPT POSSIBLY RIGHT ALONG THE COAST.

NO APPRECIABLE CHANGES IN UPPER OR LOWER LEVEL PATTERN FROM NOW THRU
MID WEEK. BY THEN...MODELS SUGGEST A NORTHERLY STREAM TROUGH WILL
FLATTEN THE RIDGE OVER THE AREA AND ATTEMPT TO SEND A FRONT THROUGH
THE AREA. IT APPEARS TO BE FAIRLY WEAK AT THIS TIME WITH LITTLE
RAINFALL. EITHER WAY...WILL LIKELY COOL TEMPS TO CLOSER TO CLIMO
NORMS IN THE LATTER PARTS OF THE WEEK AND POSSIBLY BRING A FEW
SHOWERS TO THE AREA WED/THURS.

MEFFER
&&

.AVIATION...ONCE AGAIN FOG AND STRATUS WILL BE THE ISSUE. CURRENTLY
MOST TERMINALS ARE DEALING WITH REDUCTIONS IN VISBIES WITH
SOUTHSHORE TERMINALS SEEING THE WORST CONDITIONS AS HUM/NBG/MSY HAVE
ALL FALLEN TO 1/4SM OR LESS AND WILL LIKELY REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNING. OVER THE MS COAST VISBIES ARE STARTING TO FALL
BUT ONLY PQL HAS ACTUALLY FALLEN BELOW VFR STATUS RIGHT NOW. ALL
NORTHSHORE TERMINALS ALONG WITH BTR/MCB HAVE MINOR OR NO VISBIE
REDUCTIONS AS OF YET BUT DO EXPECT ALL BUT BTR TO FALL DURING THE
MORNING. AS FOR BTR ONCE AGAIN THEY ARE MAINLY DEALING WITH LOW CIGS
MOVING IN FROM THE WEST AND THIS WILL BE THE CASE. AT 8Z BTR HAD OVC
500 FT AND WILL LIKELY BOUNCE B/T 500 AND 1500 THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HRS. ALL SITES SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPROVE AFTER 13Z WITH ALL
TERMINALS BACK IN VFR STATUS B/T 14-15Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST 3-4Z ON THE 20TH BEFORE FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS BEGIN TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE REGION ONCE AGAIN. /CAB/

&&

.MARINE...NO MAJOR FCST CONCERNS TO DISCUSS. NOT EXPECTING MUCH FOG
EXPECT FOR OVER RIVERS BUT LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO BE
SOMETHING OF AN ISSUE EACH MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
HOLD CONTROL OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
THE CNTR OF THE SFC HIGH WILL BE OFF TO THE EAST AND THIS WILL KEEP
THE REGION IN A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW PATTERN. NEXT WEATHER FEATURE TO
CONCERN OURSELVES WITH WILL BE A COLD FRONT TRYING TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION THU. /CAB/
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  82  53  82  52 /  10   0   0   0
BTR  83  57  83  56 /  10   0   0   0
ASD  80  55  81  55 /  10   0   0   0
MSY  80  59  80  60 /  10   0   0   0
GPT  79  55  79  58 /  10   0   0   0
PQL  79  55  80  56 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     LOWER JEFFERSON...LOWER LAFOURCHE...LOWER
     PLAQUEMINES...LOWER ST. BERNARD...LOWER
     TERREBONNE...ORLEANS...ST. CHARLES...ST. TAMMANY...UPPER
     JEFFERSON...UPPER LAFOURCHE...UPPER PLAQUEMINES...UPPER ST.
     BERNARD...AND UPPER TERREBONNE.

GM...NONE.
MS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     HAN****...HARRISON...AND JACKSON.

GM...NONE. 

[dkmac]

Pea soup again this morning, but will burn off into another warm and sunny day.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
322 AM CDT SUN MAR 20 2011

.SHORT TERM...
WARM AND DRY PATTERN CONTINUES. UPPER RIDGE IS WELL ESTABLISHED OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS WITH SURFACE HIGH EXTENDING OVER THE GULF
SOUTH. FOG HAS BEEN MUCH SLOWER TO DEVELOP TONIGHT COMPARED TO THE
LAST FEW NIGHTS. LATEST OBSERVATIONS OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS HOWEVER
INDICATE VISIBILITIES FALLING FAIRLY RAPIDLY ACROSS THE LA COAST FROM
HUM THROUGH NEW ORLEANS. MS COAST MAY NOT QUITE DROP TO ADVISORY
CRITERIA. ONCE THE SUNRISES AND FOG BURNS OFF...EXPECT CLEAR SKIES
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. HIGHS HAVE BEEN RUNNING ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL AND NO CHANGE EXPECTED FOR TODAY. TEMPS SHOULD REACH LOWER
80S FOR ALL LOCATIONS BUT LOWER HALF OF PLAQUEMINES PARISH. KEPT FOG
IN THE FCST AGAIN FOR TONIGHT AS PATTERN REMAINS THE SAME. ADVISORY
COULD BE NEEDED.

&&

.LONG TERM...
OVERALL FORECAST THROUGH THIS UP COMING WEEK REMAINS UNCHANGED.
TEMPS TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MODELS INDICATE AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TRACKING ACROSS THE UPPER MISS AND OHIO VALLEYS
WILL SEND COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE AREA. IT APPEARS THIS FRONT WILL
BECOME DIFFUSE AS IT REACHES THE CWA. WHETHER OR NOT IS MOVES
COMPLETELY THOUGH HAS LITTLE AFFECT ON THE FCST. RAIN CHANCES WILL
BE QUITE LOW BUT EXISTENT WITH THE BOUNDARY. FALLING HEIGHTS WILL
SUPPRESS TEMPS BACK TO NEAR NORMAL...WHICH IS THE BIGGEST CHANGE
EXPECTED.

MEFFER
&&

.AVIATION...FOG HAS BEEN VERY STUBBORN OVERNIGHT AND SO FAR HAS
REALLY ONLY DEVELOPED ALONG THE SELA COAST WITH HUM THE ONLY
IMPACTED TERMINAL. POSSIBLE REASONS WE CAN SEE FOR THIS IS SOME
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR IN PLACE AND MAYBE 15-20 KT WINDS IN THE 3RD AND
4TH GATE BUT WE ARENT EVEN GETTING STRATUS TO DEVELOP WITH THESE
WINDS AS SKIES ARE SKC. THAT SAID WE STILL THINK REDUCED VISBIES
WILL IMPACT MOST TERMINALS WITH THE SOUTHSHORE(MSY/NEW) LIKELY
STARTING TO LOWER NOW FOLLOWED BY THE NORTHSHORE(ASD) AND MS
COAST(HSA/GPT/PQL) AROUND 9-10Z. WE DO EXPECT TO SEE VISBIES FALL
INTO IFR-LIFR STATUS OVER ALL OF THESE TERMINALS BUT TO THE NORTH
AND WEST (MCB/BTR) VISBIES MAY NOT ACTUALLY FALL INTO IFR STATUS BUT
MVFR VISBIES LOOK LIKELY. JUST LIKE YESTERDAY LOOK FOR CONDITIONS TO
QUICKLY IMPROVE AFTER 13Z AND BY 14Z MOST IF NOT ALL SITES SHOULD BE
RIGHT AT THE CUSP OF MVFR-VFR STATUS. ONCE TERMINALS GET INTO VFR
THEY WILL REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE DAY UNTIL LATE EVN/OVERNIGHT ONCE
AGAIN. /CAB/

&&

.MARINE...NO MAJOR CHANGES IN THE FCST. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
DOMINATE WITH LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW AND LOW WAVES/SEAS OVER THE AREA.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO PUSH A LITTLE MORE TO THE EAST AND THIS
WILL ALLOW ONSHORE FLOW TO BECOME A LITTLE MORE ENTRENCHED AND ALLOW
FOR WINDS TO PICK UP A TAD MORE OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS OF 10-15 KTS
POSSIBLE LEADING TO SEAS APPROACHING 4 FT AT TIMES BUT OVER ALL
THINGS WILL REMAIN QUIET. STILL LOOKS LIKE A COLD FRONT WILL TRY TO
PUSH INTO THE COASTAL WATERS THU BUT WILL LIKELY STALL RIGHT THERE
AND THE RETURN NORTH. /CAB/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  82  54  82  58 /   0   0  10   0
BTR  83  58  82  62 /   0   0  10   0
ASD  81  55  81  58 /   0   0  10   0
MSY  80  60  79  62 /   0   0  10   0
GPT  81  58  79  58 /   0   0  10   0
PQL  81  56  81  57 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     ASSUMPTION...LOWER JEFFERSON...LOWER LAFOURCHE...LOWER
     PLAQUEMINES...LOWER ST. BERNARD...LOWER
     TERREBONNE...ORLEANS...ST. CHARLES...ST. JAMES...ST. JOHN
     THE BAPTIST...ST. TAMMANY...UPPER JEFFERSON...UPPER
     LAFOURCHE...UPPER PLAQUEMINES...UPPER ST. BERNARD...AND
     UPPER TERREBONNE.

GM...NONE.
MS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     HAN****...HARRISON...AND JACKSON.

GM...NONE. 

[dkmac]

Low 80's today with scattered clouds. Next real chance of rain will be late next weekend.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
406 AM CDT MON MAR 21 2011

.SHORT TERM...
FORECASTING FOG CAN BE QUITE DIFFICULT AT TIMES. NONE HAS DEVELOPED
AS OF LATEST CURRENT OBS ACROSS THE CWA. FURTHER INVESTIGATION SHOWS
20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AT THE LOWEST LEVELS ON THE VAD WIND PROFILE.
THIS EXPLAINS THE LACK OF FOG AND SHOULD INHIBIT ANY LOCATIONS FROM
SEEING DENSE FOG THIS MORNING. SO...WILL BE DROPPING THE ADVISORY
WITH THIS FCST PACKAGE AND HANDLE ANY THAT DOES DEVELOP WITH
NOWCASTS. OTHERWISE...TODAY SHOULD BE A MIRROR IMAGE OF YESTERDAY
WITH LOW 80 HIGHS AND SOUTHEAST WINDS KEEPING MOISTURE LEVELS
STEADY. ONLY DIFFERENCE MAY BE A FEW MORE HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM
THE WEST.

&&

.LONG TERM...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GULF STATES IS PROGGED TO WEAKEN AND
FLATTEN OUT MID WEEK AS AN UPPER TROUGH RACES ACROSS NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CONUS. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA AND
LIKELY STALL THIS THURSDAY AS IT NEARS THE COAST. ALTHOUGH HAVEN/T
REMOVED RAIN COMPLETELY FROM THE ZONES JUST YET...DID GO DOWN TO
ISOLATED COVERAGE. NEXT FCST MAY NEED TO TAKE IT OUT B/C ITS LOOKING
LESS LIKELY TO HAPPEN AS THE FORCING FOCUS WILL BE SO WEAK. THE MORE
REALISTIC CHANCE FOR NEXT RAIN IS LOOKING TO BE THE END OF NEXT
WEEKEND. MODELS INDICATING A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACKING TROUGH. STILL A
WEEK OUT...SO WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

MEFFER
&&

.AVIATION...
FOG NOT MATERIALING ACROSS THE AREA TERMINALS THUSFAR DUE TO LOW
LEVEL MIXING UNDERWAY ON DEEP LAYERED 20-25KT WINDS AND DEWPOINTS
ACTUALLY LOWER THAN NEARBY WATER TEMPS. WILL BE REMOVING THE LOWER
VSBY AND ALLOW FOR LIGHT RADIATIONAL FOG NEAR DAYBREAK IN THE 4-6SM
RANGE. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL MUCH OF NEXT 24 HOURS.
24/RR

&&

.MARINE...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS ALONG THE NE GULF COAST WITH RETURN FLOW
UNDERWAY ALONG THE NW GULF COAST. A WEAK LOW LEVEL JET HAS WINDS
AROUND 20KT OFF THE SURFACE BUT ONLY AROUND 10-15 KT AT WATER LEVEL.
A GRADUAL INCREASE TO MODERATE LEVELS IS EXPECTED NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS IN RESPONSE TO FALLING PRESSURES IN THE PLAINS STATES AND
SOFTENING OF THE RIDGE OVER THE EAST. NEXT FRONT APPEARS TO ENTER
THE NORTH GULF THURSDAY NIGHT BUT MAY STRUGGLE TO GET TOO FAR INTO
THE GULF BEFORE RETURNING NORTH AS A WARM FRONT FRIDAY. A SOMEWHAT
STRONGER FRONT MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING
OF NEXT WEEK. 24/RR

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  82  59  80  61 /   0   0  10  10
BTR  82  61  82  62 /   0   0  10  10
ASD  81  59  80  61 /   0   0  10  10
MSY  79  63  79  62 /   0   0  10  10
GPT  79  60  79  61 /   0   0  10  10
PQL  81  59  79  61 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE. 

[dkmac]

Same as yesterday, but the humidity is increasing.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
402 AM CDT TUE MAR 22 2011

.SHORT TERM...
SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO LAST NIGHT HAVE RESULTED IN A SLIGHTLY
DIFFERENT OUTCOME THIS MORNING. 11-3.9 SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE A
FAIRLY RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE CWA. ONLY DIFFERENCE
APPEARS TO BE SLIGHTLY MORE MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS PER 00Z
SOUNDING FROM YESTERDAY. AS THIS DECK BECOMES MORE SOLIDIFIED...
EXPECT THE FOG THAT HAS DEVELOPED TO LIFT. AS VISIBILITIES REMAIN
1/4 MILE OR HIGHER...WILL NOT BE ISSUING AN ADVISORY. CONDITIONS
TODAY WILL BE JUST LIKE YESTERDAY AND PAST FEW DAYS BEFORE THAT.
TEMPS ARE ONLY ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW RECORD HIGHS BUT SHOULD BE
PEAKED OUT FOR THE WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE IS BECOMING MORE
SUPPRESSED. DID INCLUDE FOG IN THE FORECAST AGAIN FOR TONIGHT AND
LIKELY THE NEXT NIGHT AS GENERAL CONDITIONS REMAIN THE SAME.

.LONG TERM...
THE RIDGE WILL BE FLATTENED OUT AS A TROUGH TRACKS ACROSS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TOWARDS THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. COLD FRONT IS STILL
EXPECTED TO SLIDE SOUTH INTO THE AREA AND DISSIPATE WHILE DOING SO.
AS EXPECTED...MODELS CONTINUE TO BACK OFF QPF WITH THIS SYSTEM. LAST
FCST PACKAGE REMOVED RAIN COMPLETELY ON THURSDAY AND THAT STILL
LOOKS TO BE THE CASE AS OF THE CURRENT MODEL RUNS. A SIMILAR
SCENARIO WILL PRESENT ITSELF THIS WEEKEND. THE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED
TO STALL OVER THE AREA. TIMING MAY BE BENEFICIAL FOR DAYTIME HEATING
AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT TO PRODUCE SH/TS IN THE AFTN. KEPT
POPS IN THE CHANCE RANGE. MODELS THEN SHOW ANOTHER TROUGH WITH A
MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK RACING ACROSS THE MIDWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MEFFER
&&

.AVIATION...
ADVECTIVE FOG AND LOW STRATUS MOVING IN ON 20-25 KT LOW LEVEL
SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THIS MORNING. THESE CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH 1330Z THEN IMPROVING TO VFR CONDITIONS
THEREAFTER. A REPEAT OF SIMILAR CONDITIONS SEEMS PLAUSIBLE AFTER 06Z
TONIGHT NEAR THE COASTAL TERMINALS AND SPREADING FARTHER INLAND
THROUGH 08Z AND THEREAFTER. 24/RR

&&

.MARINE...
INFLUENCES OF SURFACE RIDGE CENTERED OVER UPPER FLORIDA WILL
MAINTAIN LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING THAT SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE
THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL
BE IN RESPONSE TO APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT MODELS NOW SHOWING
STALLING BEFORE REACHING THE COAST. THIS WILL BE A CLOSE CALL BUT
FRONTAL INFLUENCES SHOULD HAVE LITTLE TO NO BEARING ON COASTAL
CONDITIONS AS THE FRONT WILL QUICKLY RETREAT AS A WARM FRONT FRIDAY
AND ONSHORE FLOW GETS GOING IN EARNEST IN RESPONSE TO FALLING
PRESSURES IN THE PLAINS STATES THIS WEEKEND. NEXT FRONT TO AFFECT
THE COASTAL WATERS APPEARS TO SAG CLOSE TO THE COASTAL PLAINS SUNDAY
NIGHT BUT AGAIN STALLS UNTIL LOW PRESSURE SWINGS ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE MONDAY
NIGHT. 24/RR

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  81  62  81  59 /   0   0  10  10
BTR  83  64  83  61 /   0   0  10  10
ASD  80  62  80  60 /   0   0  10  10
MSY  81  65  80  62 /   0   0  10  10
GPT  79  64  78  60 /   0   0  10  10
PQL  79  62  78  61 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE. 

[dkmac]

Another day in the 80's. Slightly cooler and drier front coming tomorrow.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
356 AM CDT WED MAR 23 2011

.SHORT TERM...
OTHER THAN ISOLATED LOCATIONS WITH LIGHT FOG...NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN
THE WAY OF DEVELOPMENT. SUBSTANTIAL CLOUDCOVER AND STRONG WINDS IN
THE LOWER LEVELS KEEPING DEVELOPMENT AT MINIMUM. CONDITIONS LOOK TO
REPEAT THEMSELVES AGAIN TONIGHT...SO HAVE REMOVED FOG FROM THE
FORECAST. NO CHANGES EXPECTED TODAY FROM YESTERDAY SO WENT WITH LOW
TO ALMOST MID 80S FOR THE CWA. ONLY EXCEPTION IS ALONG THE LA AND MS
COASTS WHERE COOLER GULF WATERS HAVE BEEN LIMITING HIGHS TO THE
UPPER 70S.

MEANWHILE...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE TRACKING ACROSS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS FEATURE WILL SEND A FRONT TOWARDS THE AREA.
IT SHOULD BE IN NORTHERN LA BY THE END OF THE DAY. NO AFFECTS FOR
OUR AREA YET THOUGH.

.LONG TERM...
GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO
THE GULF MID DAY WEDNESDAY. STILL NOT EXPECTING ANY RAIN WITH THIS
BOUNDARY SO HAVE KEPT THE FCST DRY. TEMPS WILL FALL ABOUT 5 DEGREES
OR SLIGHTLY MORE THURS BUT QUICKLY BEGIN MODIFYING. EXPECT LOW 80S
AGAIN BY THIS WEEKEND. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT IS PROGGED TO SLIDE SOUTH
TOWARDS THE AREA SUNDAY. AMPLE MOISTURE WILL ALREADY BE IN
PLACE...SO INSTABILITY FROM DAY TIME HEATING SHOULD RESULT IN SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE AREA. NOT EXPECTING TO MUCH
IN THE WAY OF COVERAGE ATTM.

THE REAL THREAT COMES IN ON MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. STILL SOME
DIFFERENCES IN TIMING BUT MODELS INDICATE A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACKING
SYSTEM. ALTHOUGH STILL SEVERAL DAYS OUT...IF THE SCENARIO PLAYS
OUT...SEVERE WEATHER COULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA AS A FRONT MOVES
THROUGH.

MEFFER
&&

.AVIATION...
STRONG LOW LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TO HELP
KEEP BOUNDARY LAYER WELL MIXED FOR LIMITED FOG FORMATION THIS
MORNING. MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR LEVELS WITH DAYTIME
HEATING LATER THIS MORNING. LOW CLOUDS IN LOW END MVFR
RANGE...PERHAPS BRIEFLY IFR AT A FEW TERMINAL LOCATIONS AFTER 06Z
TONIGHT. 24/RR

&&

.MARINE...
MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW TO CONTINUE NEXT FEW DAYS AS COLD FRONT
APPROACHES NORTH GULF COAST BUT STALLS BEFORE REACHING THE
SHORE...THEN RETREATING NORTH AS A WARM FRONT FRIDAY. NEXT FRONTAL
PASSAGE STILL APPEARS ON TRACK FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON TO BRING AN
INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS. 24/RR

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  83  54  77  46 /  10  10  10  10
BTR  84  60  79  50 /  10  10  10  10
ASD  83  61  78  48 /  10  10  10  10
MSY  82  62  79  56 /  10  10  10  10
GPT  79  61  79  48 /  10  10  10  10
PQL  80  59  79  47 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE. 

[dkmac]

Cloudy start to the day, but clearing and mid-70's high.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
330 AM CDT THU MAR 24 2011

.SHORT TERM...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. FOG FORMATION
AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS DEVELOPING SOMEWHAT BUT WILL HAVE A HARD
TIME GETTING ANY FOOTING AS TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 60S.
THE FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE COAST AND WEAKEN FURTHER BEFORE
SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURN TO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT THAT
WILL ALSO HAVE A HARD TIME GETTING THROUGH THE AREA...JUST THAT
TIME OF YEAR. AFTER TUESDAY...THERE IS SOME CONFUSION IN GLOBAL
RUNS. GFS HAS A THIRD FRONT SCENARIO WHILE THE EURO STOPS AT THE
SECOND FRONT. REGARDLESS OF A THIRD WEAK FRONT SCENARIO...BOTH
DEVELOP A STRONG SFC LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THAT MOVES
THROUGH BY THE START OF APRIL. IT LOOKS AS IF THIS WILL BE THE
SYSTEM TO KEEP IN MIND WITH REGARDS TO STRONG/SEVERE TS
ACTIVITY...NO APRIL FOOLS. OTHERWISE...WE WILL CONTINUE THE WARM
SPRING CONDITIONS WITH SOME SHOWER OR ISOLATED TS ACTIVITY WITH
ANY PASSING FRONT UNTIL THE START OF APRIL.

&&

.AVIATION...
SURFACE COLD FRONT DEMARKED BY A NARROW BAND OF CLOUDS BETWEEN
3000-3500 FT FROM KPIB-KMCB-KDRI...MOVING SOUTH AROUND 25 KT. DEEP
LAYERED DRY WESTERLY FLOW HAS LIMITED CONVECTIVE FORMATION AND
MARINE LAYER REMAINS DECOUPLED FROM THE ELEVATED FRONT AT CLOUD
BASES. SKIES GO CLEAR WITH PASSAGE OF THIS BAND OF CLOUDS BUT
BOUNDARY IS ANTICIPATED TO SLOW AND STALL NEAR THE COAST LATER THIS
MORNING. THIS SHOULD FLUSH MARINE LAYER BUT KEEP SOME LOWER END VFR
SCT-BKN CLOUDS SOME LOCATIONS TODAY. GENERALLY VFR CONDTIONS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT DUE TO DRIER COLUMN. 24/RR

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS AND DRIER COLUMN HAS WIND SPEEDS NEAR 15
KTS. A SWELL TRAIN RUNNING ABOUT 4 FEET WAS EMANATING FROM THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL INTO THE CENTRAL GULF THAT SHOULD ATTENUATE BEFORE
GETTING TO THE NORTH-CENTRAL COASTAL WATERS. OTHERWISE...MODERATE
WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS
LATEST FRONT STALLS VERY CLOSE TO THE COAST TODAY BEFORE MOVING
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT FRIDAY. NEXT FRONT LOOKS TO LIMP TO THE COAST
SUNDAY NIGHT. BETTER FRONTAL PUSH LIKELY TO MOVE INTO THE GULF
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. 24/RR

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  75  45  78  59 /  10  10  10  10
BTR  79  51  82  61 /  10  10  10  10
ASD  80  49  79  60 /  10  10  10  10
MSY  76  57  78  62 /  10  10  10  10
GPT  78  51  76  60 /  10  10  10  10
PQL  79  46  74  58 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE. 

[dkmac]

Cool out this A.M. Mid-70's and sunny today.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
346 AM CDT FRI MAR 25 2011

.SHORT TERM...
BENIGN WX TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SOME CHANGES WILL BEGIN
TO SHOW UP AS WE MOVE INTO THE NEW WORK WEEK THOUGH. A FEW STRAY
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TS WILL BE AROUND SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...BUT
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY IS WHERE THINGS GET A LITTLE MORE
INTERESTING. EVEN THOUGH THERE IS NOT A HUGE CHANCE FOR RAIN
TUESDAY...WE BEGIN TO PRIME AHEAD OF THE NEXT STRONG SYSTEM.
MODELS DO DISAGREE SOMEWHAT WITH WHICH PATH TO TAKE CONCERNING A
SFC LOW AND STRENGTH OF THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH...AND HAVE
OPTED TO MOVE ALONG WITH THE GFS SINCE IT HAS BEEN INITIALIZING
WELL AND CONTINUES TO SHOW THE SAME SCENARIO FOR THE PAST SEVERAL
RUNS.

THE MAIN EVENT MOVES IN WED AND THU. AN OLD STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN DRAPPED OVER THE AREA TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. A VERY STRONG SFC LOW BEGINS TO DEVELOP WED NIGHT OVER
SE TX AND MOVES EAST ALONG THIS OLD BOUNDARY. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL FORCE A TREMENDOUS AMOUNT OF MOISTURE OVER
THIS BOUNDARY. EVEN THOUGH IT IS A WAYS OUT...SOME NUMBERS ARE
COMING IN AT 2-3 INCHES OF RAINFALL FOR WED THROUGH THU. BUT KEEP
IN MIND THIS IS OVER A 48 HOUR PERIOD. IF WE GET THIS RAIN SPREAD
OUT OVER 48 HOURS...WE CAN DEAL WITH IT BUT IF WE GET IT ALL AT
ONCE IN THAT TIME FRAME...THAT IS ANOTHER STORY. ALSO...THIS IS
QUITE A WAYS OUT STILL IN TIME. THE RAIN COMES IN TWO MAJOR
SEGMENTS. ONE IS ON WED AND THE OTHER ON THU.

THE STRONG SFC LOW WILL ALSO CAUSE WINDS TO BECOME RATHER STRONG
OVER ALL THE AREA ESPECIALLY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW.

CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY IS ALSO GOING TO BE THROWN IN FOR GOOD
MEASURE. WITH A LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY REMAINING IN THE AREA...THE
ENVIRONMENT WILL BE PRIMED FOR SEVERE TS WINDS AND TORNADIC
ACTIVITY. ALTHOUGH HAIL WILL BE A POSSIBILITY...THE MAJOR ELEMENTS
EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE SEVERE WINDS AND TORNADOES.
AGAIN...KEEP IN MIND THIS IS ROUGHLY 6 DAYS OUT AND PINNING DOWN
EXACTLY WHAT AND WHERE ALL THIS MESS WILL BE IS VERY DIFFICULT.
WILL CONTINUE TO IRON OUT THE DETAILS ON TIMING AND PLACEMENT AS
WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT. BUT SAFFICE IT TO SAY...CONFIDENCE IS
FAIRLY HIGH WITH THIS EVENT OCCURRING.

&&

.AVIATION...
A GENERAL INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED AS FRONTAL ZONE
BECOMES WARM OVER LOWER SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA THIS MORNING. MOST CLOUD
LEVELS SHOULD REMAIN AT VFR LEVELS THROUGH 26/03Z BEFORE LOWERING
INTO MVFR RANGES AS WARM AIR ADVECTION DEEPENS. SOME FOG WILL ALSO
LIKELY DEVELOP AT MVFR LEVELS WITH TEMPO IFR NEAR DAYBREAK SATURDAY
BEFORE CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO HIGH END MVFR VSBY AND CIGS AFTER
26/15Z. 24/RR

&&

.MARINE...
A STEADY INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY FLOW TODAY IN RESPONSE TO FALLING
PRESSURES IN THE LOWER PLAINS STATES. A SWELL TRAIN EMANATING
THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL MAY ALSO MAINTAIN A GROUND SWELL INTO
THE OUTER WATERS NEAR 4 FEET THE NEXT FEW DAY. MODELS ARE REALLY
LATCHING ON TO VERY STRONG SYSTEM DEVELOPING MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
WITH ENSUING VERY STRONG COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
GULF. THIS IS BEYOND THE TIME RANGE OF LATEST FORECAST PACKAGE BUT
WILL BECOME THE FOCUS OF FORECAST IN COMING DAYS. 24/RR

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  80  62  84  65 /   0  10  10  10
BTR  82  65  85  66 /   0  10  10  10
ASD  81  65  83  67 /   0  10  10  10
MSY  77  67  81  67 /   0  10  10  10
GPT  77  65  79  67 /   0  10  10  10
PQL  76  63  82  67 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE. 

[dkmac]

Already in the 70's this A.M. Mid 80's today with a chance of rain this afternoon.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
431 AM CDT SAT MAR 26 2011

.SHORT TERM...
DEEP MOISTURE MOVING IN AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT EXPECTED IN
SUNDAY. THIS FRONT WILL STALL ALONG THE COAST AS WELL. THE NEXT
FRONT DUE IN TUE NIGHT WILL ALSO STALL...BUT THIS TIME IT MAY BE
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. IT IS THIS FRONT THAT WILL TELL THE STORY
OF WHERE THE STRONG SFC LOW WILL TRACK. IF THE FRONT IS NOT ABLE
TO MOVE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT THEN THE LOW WILL TRACK OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF WITH SEVERE WX CONFINED TO THAT AREA. OVER LAND...WE
WOULD STAY IN THE COOLER NORTHERLY WIND REGIME WITH LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF STRONG OR SEVERE WX. A DIFFERENCE OF 50 TO 100 MILES IN THE
FCAST PATH OF THE SFC LOW MAKES ALL THE DIFFERENCE IN THE WORLD.
WILL NOT BE MAKING ANY CHANGES TO CURRENT PACKAGE SINCE THERE IS
NO CLEAR SIGN THAT MODEL SOLUTIONS WANT TO PLAY FAIR.

&&

.AVIATION...
HIGHLY VARIABLE CONDITIONS RANGING FROM VFR TO LIFR WERE OBSERVED AS
OF 09Z. LOWEST CONDITIONS WERE ALONG A LINE FROM KMCB TO KASD TO
KPQL...AND BEST VFR CONDITIONS WERE OVER MOST OF THE AIRPORTS
IMMEDIATELY TO THE WEST AND SOUTH. AM STILL EXPECTING FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP BY 12Z OVER MOST OF THE
AIRPORTS WITH IFR/LIFR PERSISTING WHERE THE CONDITIONS ARE NOW.
AS WINDS PICK UP AND THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES RISE...THE IFR
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR THEN VFR DURING THE MID TO LATE
MORNING TODAY...THEN VFR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR
TO IFR/LIFR WILL RETURN AGAIN THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. 22/TD

&&

.MARINE...
MOST OF THE NEAR SURFACE WINDS WERE SOUTH 5 TO 10 KNOTS WITH THE
MORE ELEVATED PLATFORM WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS. SEAS WERE GENERALLY 1
TO 2 FEET EAST OF MS RIVER AND 2 TO 3 FEET WEST OF MS RIVER. HIGH
PRESSURE TO EAST AND LOWER PRESSURES TO WEST WILL SUPPORT SOUTH
WINDS IN 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND SEAS IN 2 TO 3 FEET RANGE TODAY. WEAK
COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST
SUNDAY...PERHAPS ENTERING NEARSHORE WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING. WINDS WILL WEAKEN NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

THE MODELS DIVERGE QUITE A BIT WITH REGARDS TO THE NEXT STRONGER
SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE MARINE AREA. LOW PRESSURE AREA IS EXPECTED TO
FORM OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND TRACK EAST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS MID
TO LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY LATE TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. COLD FRONT WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD PUSH INTO THE NORTH GULF
WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AND STALL. LOW PRESSURE AREA
SHOULD FORM ALONG THE FRONT AND STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES EAST AND
NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AS POTENT UPPER STORM
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. HIGH PRESSURE AND COLDER AIR IN THE WAKE OF
THIS SYSTEM SHOULD CAUSE WINDS TO INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. 22/TD

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  84  63  78  57 /  10  10  30  20
BTR  85  66  81  62 /  10  10  20  20
ASD  83  67  80  66 /  10  10  30  20
MSY  81  68  80  67 /  10  10  30  20
GPT  79  67  79  65 /  10  10  30  20
PQL  82  66  80  64 /  10  10  40  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE. 

[dkmac]

40% chance of badly needed rain today and tonight with the high temp in the low 80's. More rain and more seasonal temps by mid-week.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
537 AM CDT SUN MAR 27 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT HAS BEEN MAKING STEADY PROGRESS SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA...AND SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS AND UPPER LEVEL SPEED MAXIMA HAVE BEEN MOVING ACROSS THE
MID AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION WHICH HAS HELPED NUDGE THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY REMAINS WELL NORTH OF THE FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN
LOUISIANA.

.SHORT TERM...
ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA MAINLY ALONG THE SOUTHERN STREAM JETSTREAM EXTENDING FROM
WESTERN/NORTHERN MEXICO ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND THE REMAINING
GULF COAST STATES. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST
AND APPROACH THE NORTHSHORE OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN TODAY BEFORE
STALLING. AM ANTICIPATING ISOLATED TO LOCALLY SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO START TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING ON THE COOL
SIDE OF THE COLD FRONT STARTING IN SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI AND
ADJACENT EAST CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...THEN SPREADING
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY. A FEW OF THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD
PRODUCE SMALL HAIL DUE TO STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER AND THE
INTEGRITY OF THE FRONT THROUGH THE DAY...BUT AM EXPECTING MOST OF
THE SOUTHEAST 2/3 OR SO TO CONTINUE RATHER WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO THE LOWER 80S.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE AREA
TONIGHT...BUT TRAILING ENERGY MAY HELP SPARK A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI/LOUISIANA BORDER.

MONDAY...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL WEAKEN...AND THERE WILL BE NO
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR ANYTHING MORE THAN A FEW STRAY SHOWERS...
SO WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY AT THIS TIME. MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD
REMAIN DRY.

.LONG TERM...
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE
PLAINS ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL CARVE OUT A PHASED TROUGH ON
WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE CONUS. A SOUTHWESTERLY SUB-
TROPICAL JET WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA WHICH WILL BRING NUMEROUS
DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
LIKELY TO LINGER OVER THE INLAND PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA...AND MOST OF THE MODELS SHOWS FAIRLY WIDESPREAD HEAVY
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. HAVE RAISED THE POP TO LIKELY FOR NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AREAWIDE TUESDAY NIGHT AND IN COASTAL
AREAS ON WEDNESDAY. LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5
INCHES CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH THIS PATTERN.

THE 00Z MODEL RUNS ONCE AGAIN WERE VERY DIFFERENT WITH THE GFS
MUCH STRONGER AND SLOWER SHOWING A CLOSED OCCLUDED SYSTEM MORE
TYPICAL OF WINTER MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. THE 00Z GFS DID NOT INITIALIZE WELL
AT ALL AT 300 MB WITH WINDS TOO STRONG ESPECIALLY ALONG THE WEST
COAST. THE ECMWF...WHICH INITIALIZED MUCH BETTER...IS FASTER AND
WEAKER...BUT STILL SHOWING A HIGH AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE GEM IS ALSO WEAKER...BUT SLOWER THAN THE
ECMWF. THE 06Z GFS CAME IN LOOKING MUCH MORE SIMILAR TO THE 00Z
GEM EXCEPT DEEPER WITH THE TROUGH. AM FAVORING A BLEND OF THE 06Z
GFS AND 00Z ECMWF. THIS MEANS A COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY WITH POPS LOWERING AND CONDITIONS DRYING
OUT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE A
BIT COOLER AND BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THEN WARMING AND
RETURNING CLOSER TO NORMAL SATURDAY. IT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. 22/TD

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR TO LIFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY. LOWEST CEILINGS FOUND OVER
SOUTHERN MISS WHERE A COLD FRONT IS BEGINNING TO MOVE THROUGH. FRONT
WILL MAKE VERY SLOW PROGRESS THROUGH SE LA AND COASTAL MISS TODAY
AND TONIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM SOUTHERLY TO NORTHERLY OVER THE
BOUNDARY AND WILL BE MAINLY FOUND BISECTING THE AREA KEEPING MCB AND
BTR IN A NORTHERLY FLOW WHILE THE REMAINING TERMINALS WILL SEE
SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGH TODAY. THIS SHIFT WILL INVOLVE ALL SITES BY
LATE TONIGHT. CEILINGS WILL REMAIN IN AT LEAST THE MVFR RANGE FOR
MCB WHILE BTR WILL SEE A FEW VFR CONDITIONS FROM TIME TO TIME. ALL
TERMINALS WILL FALL TO BKN-OVC010 TONIGHT WITH SOME TEMPO OVC005.
WILL ALSO ADD A TEMPO GROUP FOR LIGHT RAIN AROUND THE AREA
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE FRONT TODAY. 17

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL EASE UP OVER THE LAKES AND SOUNDS TODAY BUT WILL REMAIN
10 TO AS HIGH AS 15 KNOTS OVER THE OPEN GULF. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT ALONG WITH THE COLD
FRONT. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE SEEN OVER THE GULF WHILE SOUTHERLY
WILL GIVE WAY TO VARIBALE WINDS BY NOON TODAY OVER NEAR SHORE AND
LAKES. WINDS WILL TURN NORTHERLY BY TONIGHT OVER LAKES AND SOUNDS
TONIGHT BUT WILL REMAIN WEAK. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BEGIN AGAIN BY
MONDAY NIGHT AND RISE THROUGH WED. STRONG TO SEVERE TS WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER MOST MARINE AREAS WED AND THU AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE WATERS. NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD START AS
EARLY AS WED EVENING. FORECAST CONDITIONS AFTER WED ARE HIGHLY
SUSPECT MAKING CONFIDENCE LEVELS FAIRLY LOW. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD
START TO SETTLE OVER THE AREA BY THURSDAY AND LAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. 17

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  77  55  77  56 /  40  20  10  10
BTR  82  59  81  61 /  30  10  10  10
ASD  81  63  81  59 /  40  10  10  10
MSY  82  65  80  65 /  30  10  10  10
GPT  80  65  80  61 /  40  20  10  10
PQL  82  64  81  58 /  40  20  20  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE. 

[dkmac]

Cool out this A.M., but no rain from the front. Hopefully we'll get some out the tues/wed system.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
556 AM CDT MON MAR 28 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT...EXTENDING FROM NEAR MOBILE TO POPLARVILLE TO
MANDEVILLE TO CONVENT TO MORGAN CITY AT 5 AM...HAS BEEN MOVING
VERY SLOWLY SOUTHEAST THE LAST FEW HOURS. WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IS RACING EAST ACROSS THE MID/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A
STRING OF VORTICITY MAXIMA ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS AND THE NORTHWEST
GULF COAST ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER JET.

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...AREAS OF FOG
SOUTHEAST OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS BEFORE DRIER AIR AND DAYTIME HEATING CAUSE THE FOG TO
DISSIPATE.

WEAK DISTURBANCES /SPEED MAXIMA/ IN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE
JETSTREAM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING DAYTIME
HEATING TODAY. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DRIFT
SOUTHEAST AND GRADUALLY LOSE ITS INTEGRITY AS NORTHERLY WINDS
BRIDGE ACROSS THE BOUNDARY AND BREAKS IN CLOUDS ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO WARM ON BOTH SIDES OF THE BOUNDARY. THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE
WILL CAUSE THE OLD BOUNDARY TO MOVE BACK NORTH AND WILL PROVIDE
SOME CONVERGENCE. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE BASICALLY DRY WITH A POP
AROUND 10 PERCENT OR LESS AND/OR NO QPF. THEN NAM AND LOCAL WRF
MODEL SHOW A HIGHER POP AND SOME MOSTLY LIGHT QPF. CANNOT RULE OUT
EITHER SOLUTION...SO HAVE OPTED TO INCLUDE MENTION OF A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE AFTERNOON
FRONTAL/MARINE BOUNDARY. SPC HAS A /SEE TEXT/ AREA FOR 5 PERCENT
CHANCE OF SEVERE CONVECTIVE WINDS. SINCE COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS
IS EXPECTED TO BE SO LOW...AM NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
STRONG TO SEVERE POTENTIAL TODAY...BUT THAT WILL BE SOMETHING TO
KEEP IN MIND IF THUNDERSTORMS GET A BIT MORE ORGANIZED THAN
EXPECTED.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT BACK NORTH TONIGHT. ANY
LEFTOVER SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE AFTERNOON SHOULD QUICKLY
DISSIPATE NEAR SUNSET. THE COMBINATION OF RADIATIONAL COOLING
AND/OR LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION SHOULD PROVIDE FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR FOG TO DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT. AM NOT EXPECTING
DENSE FOG TO BE A MAJOR THREAT...ALTHOUGH A FEW LOCATIONS NEAR THE
SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA COAST MAY ONCE AGAIN DROP TO ONE QUARTER MILE.

TUESDAY...WEAK DISTURBANCES ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN BRANCH
JETSTREAM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM SLIGHTLY AND DEWPOINTS WILL RISE AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES
NORTH. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE IN PLACE ABOVE A SLIGHT
CAP AT 700 MB. MOISTURE DEPTH WILL NOT BE OVERLY IMPRESSIVE.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON. THE MORE ORGANIZED/SUSTAINED STORMS
WILL LIKELY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING
DAMAGING WINDS GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED TORNADO
CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

TUESDAY NIGHT...THE COMBINATION OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
/ASSOCIATED WITH NOSE OF UPPER JET NEAR NORTHWEST GULF COAST AND
BROAD UPPER JET CORE OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO MID
ATLANTIC COAST/ AND PVA FROM A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL CREATE STRONG DYNAMICS THAT WILL
INTERACT WITH A RE-ENERGIZED COLD FRONT THAT MOVE BACK SOUTHEAST
INTO THE FORECAST AREA. MOST OF THE 00Z AND 06Z MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW WIDESPREAD QPF OF 1 TO 2 INCHES. MODERATE TO HIGH INSTABILITY
AND DECENT SHEAR WILL SUPPORT AT LEAST A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS...AND RAINFALL EFFICIENCY WILL LIKELY LEAD TO
LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES IN A ONE TO
TWO HOUR PERIOD. THE SEVERE WEATHER MODE WILL BE MAINLY HAIL
NORTHWEST OF THE FRONT...AND HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
SOUTHEAST OF THE FRONT. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BISECT THE AREA FROM
NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT SHOWING A MUCH WEAKER AND BROAD
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH LARGER SCALE AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE
COLD FRONT IS LIKELY TO BE NEAR THE COAST OR JUST OFFSHORE BY
MIDDAY ON WEDNESDAY AS THE BEST LIFT FROM UPPER DYNAMICS MOVE
QUICKLY EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. IT NOW APPEARS ANY LEFTOVER
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND HEAVY RAIN THREAT WILL BE IN
MAINLY COASTAL SECTIONS WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE MOST OF THE RAIN
ENDS FROM THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ANY SECONDARY SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT IS NOW EXPECTED TO BE WEAK...BUT PVA FROM
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD CAUSE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP BACK NORTH
ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE QUICKLY MOVING EAST WITH THE
MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL FINALLY REPLACE THE WARM AND MUGGY
CONDITIONS BY LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
GRADUALLY BUILDS INTO THE AREA...BUT THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE THE ONLY
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURE DAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN THE DRY AND MILD WEATHER FRIDAY...THEN
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND AS THE
AIRMASS MODIFIES AND WARMS. THE NEXT RAIN CHANCE LOOKS TO COME
ABOUT TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. 22/TD

&&

.AVIATION...
WILL BRING IN VFR TO LIFR THROUGH DAYLIGHT HOURS. COLD FRONT IS
CURRENTLY BISECTING THE AREA THIS MORNING. THE FRONT WILL STALL AND
WEAKEN KEEPING CEILINGS IN THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. THIS
MAY NOT BE THE CASE AT BTR AS SOME DRY AIR MAY PUNCH INTO THAT AREA.
WINDS ARE SHIFTING FROM SW TO NW OVER THE BOUNDARY AND FOG IS
DEVELOPING ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. WILL BRING SOME FOG
INTO THE 12Z TAFS AND FLUSH IT OUT AS THE BOUNDARY PASSES. SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS MAY BE IN THE VICINITY AGAIN TODAY AS THE FRONT WILL
HELP POOL MOISTURE. CEILINGS WILL LOWER ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT TO AROUND
OVC015 FOR MOST IF NOT ALL TERMINALS. 17

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OVER THE LAKES AND SOUNDS TODAY BUT WILL REMAIN
10 KNOTS OVER THE OPEN GULF. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL SLOWLY GIVE WAY TO
A NW COMPONENT LATER TODAY. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT
THOUGH. STRONG TO SEVERE TS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER MOST MARINE AREAS
TUE THROUGH WED AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE WATERS.
NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD START AS EARLY AS WED
EVENING. NORTHERLY WINDS MAY RISE TO AROUND 20 KNOTS AFTER THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH WED NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD START TO SETTLE OVER
THE AREA BY THURSDAY AND LAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. 17

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  75  56  81  63 /  10  10  30  60
BTR  80  62  84  66 /  10  10  30  60
ASD  82  61  82  68 /  10  10  30  60
MSY  82  67  83  69 /  10  10  30  60
GPT  81  63  80  68 /  10  10  20  60
PQL  82  60  81  67 /  10  10  20  60

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE. 

[dkmac]

Severe weather progged for tonight. We badly need the rain.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
534 AM CDT TUE MAR 29 2011

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT...

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE WEATHER PATTERN AND NUMERICAL FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO
POINT TO A SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAINFALL EPISODE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM IS HOW WIDESPREAD THE
SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE AND WHETHER THE HEAVY RAIN WILL BE ABLE TO
CAUSE FLASH FLOODING GIVEN HOW DRY ITS BEEN FOR THE LAST 18 DAYS.

OUR LAND AREAS REMAINS ON THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE DRIER
CONTINENTAL AIRMASS/SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AREA THAT IS NORTH OF
THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST SOUTH OF THE LOUISIANA COAST.
DEWPOINTS ARE RUNNING A COUPLE DEGREES LOWER THAN THE 3 HOUR MOS
GUIDANCE. HIGH PRESSURE IS LIKELY TO REMAIN ENTRENCHED OVER THE
SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST AND ALSO BUILD SOUTH THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH...HOWEVER...AN INVERTED TROUGH
SHOULD ACT AS A WARM FRONT AS IT LIFTS NORTH FROM THE COAST TO
NEAR THE WEST TO EAST MISSISSIPPI/LOUISIANA BORDER LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. DEWPOINTS SHOULD REACH THE MID 60S NEAR BATON ROUGE AND
IN THE UPPER 60S NEAR NEW ORLEANS THIS AFTERNOON WITH UPPER 60S ON
THE MISSISSIPPI GULF COAST BY EVENING. THE MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE
AN IMPORTANT FACTOR IN CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING WHEN SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL
STILL BE WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT TRUE SURFACE BASED THUNDERSTORMS.

THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN A STRONGLY DIVERGENT PATTEN IN THE
UPPER LEVELS DUE TO BEING IN THE FRONT EXIT REGION OF AN
APPROACHING JET NEAR THE TEXAS COAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. ALSO...THERE WILL LIKELY BE A SPLIT IN THE JET OVER
LOUISIANA WHICH WILL ALSO PROVIDE DIVERGENCE. THERE IS NO ONE
STRONG MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH AT 500 MB...BUT THE
GENERAL HEIGHT FALLS WILL MAINTAIN COLD TEMPERATURES NEAR -13 TO
-14 C. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE NORTHWEST PORTION
OF THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT...BISECT THE AREA FROM NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST ACROSS LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN BETWEEN 5 AND 7 AM
WEDNESDAY...THEN STALL NEAR THE COAST DURING THE MIDDAY TO LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS ON WEDNESDAY.

MODERATE INSTABILITY AND DECENT SHEAR WILL BE IN PLACE...AND THERE
IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA
FOR LATE TODAY AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT. THE SEVERE MODE IS EXPECTED
TO BE MAINLY LARGE HAIL AND STRONG DAMAGING STRAIGHT-LINE
WINDS...HOWEVER...ISOLATED TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH ANY
INDIVIDUAL SUPERCELL STORMS THAT FORM LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY THIS EVENING...AND AGAIN WITH SOME OF THE BOWING/BOOKEND
SIGNATURES THAT ARE EXPECTED DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE COLD FRONT. ANY LOW LEVEL MARINE INVERSION
TONIGHT SHOULD BE SHALLOW ENOUGH TO AT LEAST ALLOW STRONG
DOWNDRAFT WINDS TO REACH THE SURFACE BEHIND THE BOWING SEGMENTS.
SOME OF THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR/HELICITY COULD BE ENHANCED IF THE
WARM FRONT IS SLOW TO MOVE NORTH AND REPLACE THE DRIER AIR. THERE
COULD BE A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS LINGERING NEAR THE COAST
WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE RAIN COOLED AIR FINALLY PUSHES MOST OF
THE ACTIVITY OFFSHORE.

REGARDING RAINFALL...IF THE AREA HAD SATURATED GROUND...THERE
WOULD DEFINITELY BE CONCERNS FOR FLASH FLOODING...HOWEVER...MOST
AREAS HAVE HAD LITTLE OR NO RAIN FOR THE LAST 18 DAYS...AND FLASH
FLOOD GUIDANCE IS 3 TO 4 INCHES IN ONE HOUR AND 4 TO 5 INCHES IN 3
HOURS. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 1.5 TO 3 INCHES WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 5
INCHES POSSIBLE WHERE REPEAT THUNDERSTORMS OCCUR. WHILE A FEW
AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING CANNOT BE RULED OUT...THE THREAT APPEARS
TOO LOW TO WARRANT A FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME.

STABLE AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR A WHILE LATE WEDNESDAY
MORNING THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING...THEN THE MAIN 500 MB
WILL SHARPEN UP AND MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. THE MAIN UPPER SYSTEM SHOULD CAUSE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME ISOLATED ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE COAST TO REDEVELOP WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE ENDING FROM THE WEST BY MIDDAY
THURSDAY. THURSDAY WILL BE A COOLER DAY AND PROBABLY OUR ONLY
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURE DAY FOR THE NEXT WEEK.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN DRY
CONDITIONS PERSISTING FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
RETURN TO ABOVE AVERAGE/CLIMATOLOGY. SUNDAY WILL ALSO REMAIN DRY
BUT NOTICEABLY MORE HUMID AS SOUTHERLY BREEZES RETURN.

THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM TO BRING RAIN WILL COME MONDAY OR TUESDAY
DEPENDING ON WHETHER YOUR BELIEVE THE FASTER GFS OR SLOWER ECMWF.
AM LEANING CLOSER TO THE ECMWF AT THIS TIME...BUT HAVE SPLIT THE
DIFFERENCE KEEPING A LOW POP ON BOTH DAYS. 22/TD

&&

.AVIATION...
SOME SCATTERED CEILINGS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE TERMINALS THIS
MORNING. OVERALL...VFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AT ALL
TERMINALS...EXCEPT KHUM WHERE SOME MVFR CEILINGS HAVE
DEVELOPED...THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. BY MID-
AFTERNOON...A WEAK STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
AREA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A STRONG 100+ KNOT JET STREAK IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA. STRONG
FORCING ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS JET STREAK AND AMPLE
INSTABILITY IN THE LOW LEVELS...WILL ALLOW FOR THE FORMATION OF
CONVECTION FROM MID-AFTERNOON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE
CONVECTION WILL REMAIN SCATTERED IN NATURE...AS COVERED BY THE
PROB 30 GROUP...THROUGH AROUND 06Z. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THE
PEAK TIME FOR THE HEAVIEST CONVECTION WILL BE FROM 06-12Z TOMORROW
NIGHT. WILL INCLUDE A TEMPO GROUP TO REFLECT THIS INCREASED RISK
OF STRONG CONVECTION IN THE 12Z TAFS. 32

&&

.MARINE...
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH TOMORROW...AS A
DEEPENING SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO FORM OVER THE REGION. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE 10-15 KNOT RANGE TODAY INTO EARLY TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...THESE WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO EXERCISE CAUTION RANGE
LATER TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. THESE STRONG WINDS WILL PUSH SEAS UP
INTO THE 3 TO 4 FOOT RANGE IN THE OUTER WATERS. THE WINDS WILL
TURN TO THE NORTHWEST TOMORROW EVENING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AS
COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHTER
WINDS AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...BUT STRONG CONVECTION IS ALSO
EXPECTED. THIS STRONG CONVECTION WILL LIKELY PRODUCE VERY STRONG
WINDS FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME. AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION...A PERIOD OF INCREASED WINDS IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON THURSDAY. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF WINDOW OF
SCA CONDITIONS AS STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS MIX DOWN TO THE
SURFACE DUE TO INCREASED COLD AIR ADVECTION LEADING TO INCREASED
MIXING OVER THE GULF WATERS. THESE WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIE THURSDAY
NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION.
OVERALL...WINDS WILL TURN MORE WESTERLY AND WEAKEN TO AROUND 10
KNOTS. HOWEVER...A SECONDARY UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE COULD LEAD TO
ANOTHER PERIOD OF STRONGER WINDS OVER THE EASTERN WATERS ON
FRIDAY. WINDS MAY RISE BACK INTO EXERCISE CAUTION RANGE...AND SEAS
OF 4 TO 5 FEET WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE. AS ANOTHER SURFACE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT...WINDS
WILL ONCE AGAIN WEAKEN TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS. UNFORTUNATELY...THESE
LIGHTER WINDS LOOK TO BE SHORT-LIVED...AS INCREASING GRADIENT FLOW
IS ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND. THIS INCREASED ONSHORE FLOW
IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD
PRODUCE EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. 32

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  77  61  72  51 /  30  80  50  30
BTR  82  64  76  53 /  30  80  50  30
ASD  80  67  79  55 /  20  80  70  40
MSY  80  68  79  59 /  20  80  60  40
GPT  77  68  79  57 /  20  80  70  40
PQL  77  67  81  58 /  20  80  80  40

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE. 

[dkmac]

Only about 3/4ths of an inch of rain last night and this morning. More rain still moving towards us from the West. Mid-70's today and tomorrow with cool overnights.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
601 AM CDT WED MAR 30 2011

.SHORT TERM...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND UPPER LEVEL SPEED
MAX OVER CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THESE FEATURES ARE HELPING
IGNITE ANOTHER AREA OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF THE COLD
FRONT OVER SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...AND THE NEARSHORE COASTAL WATERS.
REGARDING SEVERITY...THERE COULD BE A FEW MORE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THAT MAY PRODUCE HAIL AROUND QUARTER SIZE...AND POSSIBLY WIND
GUSTS APPROACHING SEVERE...BUT TORNADOES NO LONGER APPEAR TO BE A
CONCERN. THE SEVERE THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO
WARRANT ANOTHER WEATHER WATCH THIS MORNING.

LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN WHERE HEAVY RAIN
MOVES OVER AREAS THAT RECEIVED HEAVY RAIN EARLIER AND WHERE REPEAT
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OCCURS. THE MAIN THREAT AREA FOR FLASH
FLOODING WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 10/12
CORRIDOR...BUT THE GOOD NEWS IS THE ORIENTATION OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS IS NO LONGER LINING UP WHERE SIGNIFICANT TRAINING
SHOULD OCCUR.

THE COLD FRONT IS MAKING STEADY PROGRESS THROUGH SOUTH MISSISSIPPI
AND SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...AND THE FRONT SHOULD REACH NEAR LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN BY 7 AM...AND MOST COASTAL AREAS BY 9 OR 10 AM.
THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH
OF THE FRONT...AND SCATTERED ACTIVITY NORTH OF THE FRONT...BUT
OVERALL TRENDS WILL BE A DECREASE IN PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE
LATER MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
WILL LIKELY BE CANCELLED EARLY FOR AT LEAST THE NORTHERN AND
POSSIBLY CENTRAL AREAS.

DRIER AIR WILL WORK IN THIS AFTERNOON...BUT IT WILL REMAIN CLOUDY.
THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. THE GFS HAS
COME MORE IN LINE THE DRIER ECMWF WITH THE QPF TONIGHT...SO HAVE
LOWERED THE POP TO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN MOST AREAS. ANY
RAIN TONIGHT WILL END BEFORE SUNRISE ON THURSDAY...AND SKIES ARE
EXPECTED TO CLEAR THURSDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW
AVERAGE ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S.

.LONG TERM...
MORE COMFORTABLE...DRIER AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONTROL FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...THEN MUGGY CONDITIONS
WILL RETURN ON SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST AND SOUTHERLY
BREEZES RETURN. THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL COME LATE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. THERE REMAINS LARGE MODEL DIFFERENCE WITH THE TIMING AND
STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF AGREE THAT
THERE WILL BE SUBSTANTIAL FORCING AND INSTABILITY FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. THE ECMWF APPEARS TOO STRONG CLOSING OFF A STRONG
UPPER LOW THAT MOVES FROM TEXAS ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. 22/TD

&&

.AVIATION...
HIGHLY VARIABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TERMINALS WITH SEVERAL AREAS
OF CONVECTION OCCURRING. WILL CONTINUE TO ADDRESS TSTMS WITH TEMPO
GROUPS AS APPROPRIATE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. GENERAL TREND WILL BE
FOR MVFR CIGS AT TERMINALS...WITH FAIRLY CONSISTENT CONDITIONS
ANTICIPATED AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE. ANY WIDESPREAD CLEARING NOT
LIKELY TO HAPPEN UNTIL THURSDAY MORNING. 35

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXERCISE CAUTION DUE THE
COMBINATION OF EITHER SUSTAINED WINDS REACHING 15 TO 20 KNOTS...OR
EVEN STRONGER WIND GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORMS. FREQUENT
TO CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING AND HAIL WILL OCCUR WITH
THE STRONGER STORMS THIS MORNING...AND AN ISOLATED WATERSPOUT OR
TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIT THE MARINE AREA
DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH.
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD MAX OUT AROUND 15
KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THEN INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS LATE
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING AS COOLER AIR MOVES OVER THE WARMER
WATER.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF
OF MEXICO THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS NORTH OF THE
HIGH WILL INCREASE BACK TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS AFTER A BRIEF LULL IN
SPEEDS EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE
NEARSHORE WATERS SATURDAY WITH WINDS DIMINISHING OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AT LEAST 15 TO 20 KNOTS
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE MARINE AREA MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY.
22/TD

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  67  45  69  48 /  40  20  10   0
BTR  70  48  73  51 /  40  20  10   0
ASD  76  52  72  48 /  60  20  10   0
MSY  74  55  71  56 /  60  30  10   0
GPT  76  55  73  52 /  70  20  10   0
PQL  78  55  73  49 /  80  20  20   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 AM WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     ASCENSION...ASSUMPTION...EAST BATON ROUGE...EAST
     FELICIANA...IBERVILLE...LIVINGSTON...LOWER
     JEFFERSON...LOWER LAFOURCHE...LOWER PLAQUEMINES...LOWER ST.
     BERNARD...LOWER TERREBONNE...ORLEANS...POINTE COUPEE...ST.
     CHARLES...ST. HELENA...ST. JAMES...ST. JOHN THE
     BAPTIST...ST. TAMMANY...TANGIPAHOA...UPPER
     JEFFERSON...UPPER LAFOURCHE...UPPER PLAQUEMINES...UPPER ST.
     BERNARD...UPPER TERREBONNE...WASHINGTON...WEST BATON
     ROUGE...AND WEST FELICIANA.

GM...NONE.
MS...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 AM WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     AMITE...HAN****...HARRISON...JACKSON...PEARL
     RIVER...PIKE...WALTHALL...AND WILKINSON.

GM...NONE. 

[dkmac]

Cool, dry and sunny today with a low in the 50's tonight.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
405 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2011

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER TROUGH WITH AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EARLY
THIS MORNING WILL TRAVERSE THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH FRIDAY. MUCH
DRIER AND SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK IN THE WAKE OF THE STRONG
COLD FRONT AND WITH NORTHWEST FLOW PREVAILING ALOFT. RETURN FLOW
WILL COMMENCE FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY WITH FLAT RIDGING DEVELOPING
ALOFT OVER THE GULF COAST STATES DURING THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER UPPER
TROUGH WILL ENTER INTO THE INTERIOR WEST TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEKEND AND THEN MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND INTO THE EASTERN
CONUS AS A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH THE DURING THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK. THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA EARLY TUESDAY WITH CONVECTION LIKELY MONDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL AGAIN
FILTER INTO THE REGION FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. 11

&&

.AVIATION...
CEILINGS SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE OUT TODAY. FOG SHOULD NOT BE A PROBLEM
OVERNIGHT AS DP TEMPS SHOULD BE QUITE DRY. WILL SHOW SKIES CLEARING
FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY. CLEARING IS USED LOOSELY HERE AS
A SCT-BKN120 OR HIGHER MAY HANG AROUND FOR A WHILE. 17


&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS ARE BEGINNING TO EASE UP A BIT THIS MORNING. THIS
TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. CLOUDY SKIES WITH A HINT OF
LIGHT DRIZZLE MAY DEVELOP FROM TIME TO TIME THIS MORNING BUT SHOULD
NOT LAST LONG. CAUTION HEADLINES SHOULD BE ABLE TO BE DROPPED BY
NOON TODAY FOR ALL AREAS. MODERATE 15 TO 25 KNOT SYNOPTIC SCALE
WINDS FROM THE SOUTHEAST WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP SUNDAY AND LAST UNTIL
A COLD FRONT PASSES TUESDAY WHICH WILL JUST BRING IN STRONG
NORTHERLY WINDS LASTING INTO WED. 17


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  68  46  77  51 /   0   0   0  10
BTR  70  48  80  54 /   0   0   0  10
ASD  69  49  79  57 /   0   0   0  10
MSY  70  54  78  60 /   0   0   0  10
GPT  69  50  78  57 /   0   0   0  10
PQL  69  49  78  56 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE. 

[dkmac]

Warm and sunny today and through the weekend.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
356 AM CDT FRI APR 1 2011

.SHORT TERM...
GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A SHORT
WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE BACKSIDE OF THE EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH
WILL PUSH A WEAKENING COLD FRONT TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT
AND EARLY SATURDAY. THIS FRONT MAY STALL OUT JUST NORTH OF THE
AREA. SINCE MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED AND THERE WILL BE LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF DYNAMICS...WE PLAN TO KEEP THE FORECAST DRY AS THE
FRONT APPROACHES. THE BOUNDARY WILL THEN MOVE BACK NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT BY SATURDAY NIGHT. ONSHORE FLOW WILL COMMENCE LATER TODAY
AND THEN INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY IN RESPONSE TO AN
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM NICELY OVER THE WEEKEND. SOME PATCHY OR
AREAS OF FOG AS WELL AS STRATUS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT
AND EARLY SATURDAY AND AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. 11

LONG TERM...
A RATHER SHARP AND POTENT UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN
U.S. DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND WILL TRAVERSE THE
CENTRAL CONUS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING A ROUND OF CONVECTION TO THE FORECAST AREA FROM MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. THERE WILL BE A THREAT OF STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. IT
APPEARS THAT STRONG DYNAMICS...FAVORABLE UPPER AND LOWER JETS...
AND SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY...CAPE AND SHEAR WILL ALL BE PRESENT
TO AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION WITH ALL
MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE DURING THE PERIOD. IN ADDITION...
RATHER BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ON MONDAY IN ADVANCE
OF THE SYSTEM AND THEN TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE
COLD FRONT. A BRIEF COOL DOWN IS EXPECTED FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD
BEFORE SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS TO THE AREA. 11

&&

.AVIATION...
SOME GROUND FOG MIFG WILL AFFECT A FEW TERMINALS THIS MORNING AND
AGAIN TONIGHT. SHOULD BE A LITTLE MORE FOG AROUND BY TOMORROW
MORNING AND WILL SHOW AT LEAST DOWN TO 3SM. NO AFFECT TO AVIATION
BUT WILL BRING IN DECKS OF BKN120 BY 12Z SAT. 17

&&

.MARINE...
NO ISSUES IN THE SHORT TERM AS HIGH PRESSURE HAS SETTLED OVER THE
AREA. AS WE SKIP AHEAD TO SUNDAY WE WILL FIND MODERATE 15 TO 20
KNOT SYNOPTIC SCALE WINDS FROM THE SOUTHEAST BEGIN TO DEVELOP. WIND
SPEEDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE TO AS HIGH AS 25 TO 30 KNOTS BY
MONDAY AND LAST INTO MONDAY EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS TUESDAY
MORNING BRINGING STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS LASTING INTO WED BEFORE
EASING TOWARD THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE MARINE AREAS MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING. SEAS WILL RESPOND ACCORDINGLY TO THE WIND
SPEEDS BUT WILL BE A LITTLE HIGHER AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS FETCH
LENGTHS WILL BE MAXIMIZED STARTING SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. 20 TO 25
KNOT WIND SPEEDS LOOK TO DEVELOP OUT 150NM INTO THE GULF. SEAS
SHOULD BE ABLE TO PEAK AS HIGH AS 8 FEET OFFSHORE AND SOME OF THESE
CONDITIONS COULD PENETRATE INTO THE NEAR SHORE WATERS AS WELL. 17

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  77  51  78  54 /   0  10  10  10
BTR  80  56  81  59 /   0  10  10  10
ASD  78  57  80  60 /   0  10  10  10
MSY  79  60  80  63 /   0  10  10  10
GPT  77  57  79  60 /   0  10  10  10
PQL  76  55  79  58 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE. 

[dkmac]

Cool this A.M. with a chance of sprinkles.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
337 AM CDT SAT APR 2 2011

.SHORT TERM...
SHARP 850MB SHORT WAVE WITH WEAK SFC BOUNDARY IN THE SHAPE OF A
REINFORCING COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH TAKING ADVANTAGE OF ANY AVAILABLE
MOISTURE. THE WAVE CAN BE SEEN EASILY IN THE WIND AND HEIGHT
FIELDS AND IS SHOWING UP THE BEST AT ABOUT 850MB. JUST SOME LIGHT
RAIN EXPECTED WITH THIS AS IT MOVES THROUGH THIS MORNING. WE HAVE
TO MOVE TOWARD MONDAY AND TUESDAY BEFORE ANYTHING OF SIGNIFICANCE
OCCURS.

.LONG TERM...
WIND AND MOISTURE WILL INCREASE SUNDAY AND MONDAY AHEAD OF THE
NEXT COLD FRONT. THE FRONT SHOULD START TO DEVELOP SH/TS ALONG IT
SUNDAY NIGHT OVER CENTRAL TX AND QUICKLY MOVE EAST. THERE DOES
LOOK TO BE SOME SINGLE CELL TYPE ACTIVITY THAT COULD DEVELOP AHEAD
OF THE MAIN FRONTAL LINE MONDAY SO KEEPING TIMING WITH WORDING OF
AFTERNOON EVENING WILL SUFFICE. THE HODOS ARE SHOWING LINEARITY AS
THE FRONT MOVES IN WHICH CAUSES THE ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP INTO MORE
OF A SQUALL LINE ALONG THE FRONT WHICH MEANS STRAIGHT LINE WIND
DAMAGE LOOKS TO BE A BETTER DIFINED SCENARIO. WILL KEEP ALL VARIETIES OF
SEVERE WX SINCE WE WILL HAVE A FEW TS AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE...AND
AS ALWAYS...THEY CAN TAKE FULL ADVANTAGE OF THE HEAT AND MOISTURE
AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOME GROUND FOG MIFG WILL AFFECT A FEW TERMINALS THIS MORNING BEFORE
BURNING OFF BETWEEN 14-15Z. BRIEF PERIOD OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS AS WELL
WITH PASSING SHORTWAVE. CANNOT RULE OUT A SPRINKLE OR TWO OUT OF
HIGH AC DECK IN NEXT 2-3 HOURS.  AS ONSHORE FLOW BECOMES MORE
SIGNIFICANT BY EARLY SUNDAY...WE COULD SEE SOME LOW STRATUS TOWARD
SUNDAY SUNRISE. 35
&&

.MARINE...
BASIC FORECAST SCENARI HAS CHANGED LITTLE OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS.
BY SUNDAY WE WILL FIND MODERATE 15 TO 20 KNOT SYNOPTIC SCALE WINDS
FROM THE SOUTHEAST BEGIN TO DEVELOP. WIND SPEEDS WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE TO AS HIGH AS 25 TO 30 KNOTS BY MONDAY AND LAST INTO MONDAY
EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS MONDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS LASTING INTO WED BEFORE
EASING TOWARD THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE MARINE AREAS MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING. SEAS WILL RESPOND ACCORDINGLY TO THE WIND
SPEEDS BUT WILL BE A LITTLE HIGHER AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS FETCH
LENGTHS WILL BE MAXIMIZED STARTING SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. 20
TO 25 KNOT WIND SPEEDS LOOK TO DEVELOP OUT 150NM INTO THE GULF. SEAS
SHOULD BE ABLE TO PEAK AS HIGH AS 8 FEET OFFSHORE AND SOME OF THESE
CONDITIONS COULD PENETRATE INTO THE NEAR SHORE WATERS AS WELL. 35

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  79  56  80  67 /   0   0   0  10
BTR  81  61  82  68 /   0   0   0  10
ASD  80  59  81  67 /   0   0   0  10
MSY  81  64  81  70 /   0   0   0  10
GPT  80  61  78  69 /   0   0   0  10
PQL  80  56  80  66 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.