Reply With QuoteI expect some 3 to 5 inch rainfall totals from LA to South AL with this subtropical system
Special Weather statement Mobile AL
Special Weather Statement
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
418 PM CDT TUE OCT 5 2004
ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-060300-
UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE-UPPER
MOBILE-ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-WASHINGTON-CONECUH-MONROE-BUTLER-CLARKE-
CRENSHAW-WILCOX-CHOCTAW-COASTAL OKALOOSA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND
OKALOOSA-INLAND ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA-COASTAL SANTA ROSA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ANDALUSIA...BAY MINETTE...BREWTON...
BUTLER...CAMDEN...CHATOM...DAUPHIN ISLAND...DOWNTOWN MOBILE...
EVERGREEN...GROVE HILL...LUVERNE...MONROEVILLE...CRESTVIEW...
DESTIN...FORT WALTON BEACH...NAVARRE AND PENSACOLA...
418 PM CDT TUE OCT 5 2004
...SIGNIFICANT SOAKING RAINS ARE POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND...
WHILE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED THIS
EVENING AND AGAIN TOMORROW ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
REGION...THE OVERALL RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY LOW
FOR MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE STRENGTHENS TO THE NORTHEAST.
FORECASTERS AT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CONTINUE TO CLOSELY
MONITOR A DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL STATES...AND A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE LATEST INDICATIONS FROM
COMPUTER MODEL GUIDANCE ARE THAT THESE TWO WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL
BEGIN INTERACTING WITH EACH OTHER BY LATE WEEK...WITH AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN GULF BY FRIDAY. THAT AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHEAST OVER THE NORTHERN GULF BY
THE WEEKEND...BRINGING INCREASED RAIN CHANCES TO THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST REGION SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
IT APPEARS OUR EXTENDED DRY PERIOD MAY BE COMING TO AN END. THOSE
NEEDING TO DO REPAIR WORK TO HOMES AND BUSINESSES DAMAGED BY
HURRICANE IVAN SHOULD COMPLETE AS MUCH OF THIS WORK AS THEY CAN BY
FRIDAY. BY SATURDAY MORNING...AS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES...A SHIELD OF SOAKING RAINS IS EXPECTED TO START MOVING
IN FROM THE WEST. THE BEST CHANCES OF RAIN...AT THIS TIME...APPEAR
TO BE SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY AS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVES THROUGH. THE RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF BY MONDAY.
FUTURE TIMING...EXTENT OF THE RAINS...AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED AS MORE WEATHER DATA
COMES IN. STAY TUNED FOR THE LATER FORECASTS AND UPDATING
STATEMENTS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.
I expect some 3 to 5 inch rainfall totals from LA to South AL with this subtropical system
Special Weather Statement
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
310 PM CDT WED OCT 6 2004
ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-070300-
UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE-UPPER
MOBILE-ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-WASHINGTON-CONECUH-MONROE-BUTLER-CLARKE-
CRENSHAW-WILCOX-CHOCTAW-COASTAL OKALOOSA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND
OKALOOSA-INLAND ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA-COASTAL SANTA ROSA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ANDALUSIA...BAY MINETTE...BREWTON...
BUTLER...CAMDEN...CHATOM...DAUPHIN ISLAND...DOWNTOWN
MOBILE...EVERGREEN...GROVE HILL...LUVERNE...MONROEVILLE...
CRESTVIEW...DESTIN...FORT WALTON BEACH...NAVARRE AND PENSACOLA...
310 PM CDT WED OCT 6 2004
...FORECASTERS ARE STILL EXPECTING SIGNIFICANT SOAKING RAINS THIS
WEEKEND...
IT APPEARS THAT OUR EXTENDED DRY PERIOD IN THE WAKE OF HURRICANE
IVAN WILL BE COMING TO AN END IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE FIRST
SIGNIFICANT SOAKING RAINS ARE EXPECTED BY SATURDAY.
FORECASTERS AT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CONTINUE TO CLOSELY
MONITOR A DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS...AND A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE LATEST INDICATIONS FROM COMPUTER
MODEL GUIDANCE ARE THAT THESE TWO WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL BEGIN
INTERACTING WITH EACH OTHER BY LATE WEEK...WITH AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF BY FRIDAY. THAT
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS STILL FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHEAST OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF THIS WEEKEND...BRINGING SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED RAIN
CHANCES TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
THOSE NEEDING TO DO REPAIR WORK TO HOMES AND BUSINESSES DAMAGED BY
HURRICANE IVAN SHOULD COMPLETE AS MUCH OF THIS WORK AS THEY CAN BY
FRIDAY. BY SATURDAY...AS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES...A
SHIELD OF SOAKING RAINS IS EXPECTED TO START MOVING IN FROM THE
WEST. THE BEST CHANCES OF RAIN...AT THIS TIME...STILL APPEAR TO BE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES
THROUGH. THE RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF BY MONDAY.
FUTURE TIMING...EXTENT OF THE RAINS...AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED AS MORE WEATHER DATA
COMES IN. STAY TUNED FOR THE LATER FORECASTS AND UPDATING
STATEMENTS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.
My take on the situation is pretty simple.....it may become a tropical system on a weak level unless the shear weakens in the northern Gulf of Mexico. Models do not hint at this and I really don't see it happening with the mid latitude cyclone across the midwest that is swinging the frontal boundary towards the area. Looks like the front will pick up this abundant moisture source and draw it right into the Mississippi Delta and the coast of Alabama. Rainfall estimates currently on the order of 5" look to be pretty accurate for the Mobile/Orange Beach/Foley area. This will progress well into the Appalacian area during the day on Sunday/Monday it seems with widespread heavy rainfall likely to occur. Will go into more possible totals for areas further inland as the system approaches the area. Also...temperature falls are going to start occuring with the first real shot of cooler air of the season invading the region. High temps into north and central Alabama will dip into the low-mid 70's in about 14 days or so.
While I was saying earlier today, that we needed a little rain. I sure wasn't hoping for 5 inches of rain for my area. Repair work for many people will be hard if that much rain occurs. My last bad tree was cut down today, so hope that the wind doesn't get too high along with the rain.
don't think of sending it my way unless it's a hurricane. Then at least I won't have to go to work.
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