Houston weather thread

[mom2grls72]

BRR..70 degrees at 7 a.m. this morning..now at almost 11 a.m., it is 39 degrees. That is a MAJOR difference.

[satx_pilot]

Hehe.. I think we were on the same channel, I was just 8 minutes behind :)

http://www.hardcoreweather.com/showt...169#post101169

[ROLLTIDE]

From the SE texas NWS


BY THE 00Z GFS TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN U.S.
MONDAY WITH SHALLOW ARCTIC AIR SURGING SOUTHWARD OVER THE CENTRAL
U.S. WHILE OVERRUNNING IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTH TX MON
MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. WITH A POSITIVE TILTED TROUGH
DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. MONDAY AND DROPPING SOUTHWARD
TUESDAY...IT APPEARS THE POTENTIAL OF SOME MIXED FROZEN
PRECIPITATION WITH LIGHT RAIN MAY DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE CWA. WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE IF TEMPERATURES ALOFT AS
WELL AS NEAR THE SURFACE WILL BE COLD ENOUGH WITH THE LOW TO MID
LEVEL MOISTURE TO PRODUCE A MIX OF RAIN/FREEZING RAIN/SLEET...AND
POSSIBLY SNOW...MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. WILL MENTION A CHANCE OF SOME
SLEET WITH LIGHT RAIN IN THE NORTHERN COUNTIES MONDAY FOR NOW. 32
&&

[ROLLTIDE]

MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE ONGOING FORECAST...MAINLY TO THE
SUN AND BEYOND PD. THE BIGGEST CHG IS TO LOWER THE POPS TO
SLIGHT CHC MON AND TUE. THE LATEST (12Z) GFS INDICATES LESS
MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE BEHIND THE FRONT THAN EARLIER
RUNS...AND THEREFORE ALSO LESS OF A POSSIBILITY FOR PRECIP.
HOWEVER...I COMPROMISED SOME WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
TO LEAVE A SLIGHT CHC IN THERE...AS WE COULD SEE THE GFS
SWITCH BACK TO A WETTER SOLN. THIS IS IMPORTANT BECAUSE
OVERNIGHT TEMPS ON SUN...MON AND TUE WILL MOST LIKELY BE
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS...
AND POSSIBLY ACROSS CENTRAL AREAS MON AND TUES NIGHT.
DURING THESE PERIODS WILL HAVE A SLIGHT CHC OF MIXED PRECIP TYPE.TEMPS WILL FALL QUICKLY ON SUN AS THE STRONG CF MOVES ACROSS SE TX.AND MAY SEE FREEZING TEMPS REACH THE EXT N/NW ON SUN NIGHT.GIVEN THAT THE AIRMASS IS OF ARCTIC ORIGIN...THERE IS STILL ALOT OF UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING THE TEMPS/POPS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MODEL GUIDANCE IS OFTEN ERRATIC WITH ARCTIC FRONTS DUE TO THE
SHALLOWNESS OF THE COLD AIR.
&&

[ROLLTIDE]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
310 AM CST WED JAN 10 2007

.DISCUSSION...RETURN FLOW TO DEVELOP LATER TODAY AS A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE STATE MOVES
EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. MOISTURE IS
PROGGED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY AS THE BOUNDARY
APPROACHES NORTH TX. NOT MUCH OF A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE CWA THURSDAY SO WILL NOT MENTION RAIN CHANCES
UNTIL FRIDAY FOR NOW. BEST CHANCE OF RAIN STILL APPEARS SAT NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY AS THE COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTHEAST TX SAT AFTERNOON
MOVES SOUTHWARD AND THROUGH SOUTHEAST TX SUN AFTERNOON. LATEST
GFS MODEL RUN CONTINUES TO INDICATE A MUCH DRIER POST FRONTAL
ENVIRONMENT SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS ANOTHER SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR
ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. MOVES INTO TX. BELIEVE ENOUGH MOISTURE
LINGERS ACROSS SOUTHEAST TX MONDAY AND TUESDAY TO MENTION A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN ESPECIALLY WITH THE SHALLOW NATURE OF THE
COLD AIR AND THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE FUTURE MOVEMENT OF A 500MB
TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WESTERN U.S. THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
HOWEVER...THE MIX OF RAIN AND FROZEN PRECIPITATION APPEARS LESS
LIKELY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD EXCEPT ACROSS NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA WHERE LIGHT FREEZING RAIN MAY DEVELOP MON
NIGHT/TUES MORNING WHEN TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE MAY BE NEAR OR
BELOW FREEZING. 32

[ROLLTIDE]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
356 AM CST THU JAN 11 2007

.DISCUSSION...CHALLENGING FORECAST FOR THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK
AS THE ARRIVAL OF A STRONG COLD FRONT SUNDAY WILL USHER COLD ARCTIC
AIR INTO SOUTHEAST TX EARLY NEXT WEEK. FIRST...RETURN FLOW TO CONTINUE
TO DRAW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. EXPECT
SEA FOG TO DEVELOP ACROSS COASTAL SECTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TX TONIGHT
AS WELL AS FRI/SAT NIGHT. NOT MUCH OF A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP UNTIL SAT NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT BARRELS INTO NORTH TX
EARLY SATURDAY AND APPROACHES THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA SAT
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...A COUPLE OF UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE STATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT TO WARRANT A MENTION OF SHOWERS FRIDAY AND
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY BUT WILL LEAN MORE
TOWARDS THE DRIER 00Z NAM SOLUTION THAN THE 00Z GFS. AS THE FRONT
MOVES INTO SOUTHEAST TX LATE SAT NIGHT/EARLY SUN MORNING...RAIN
CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. UP UNTIL THIS
MORNING...MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THE FRONT MOVING
THROUGH SOUTHEAST TX SUN AFTERNOON BUT INSTEAD HAVE SLOWED DOWN
THE FORWARD SPEED CONSIDERABLY WITH THE GFS NOW BRINGING THE
FRONT TO THE COAST BY MIDNIGHT SUNDAY. WITH THE MOMENTUM OF THE
ARCTIC AIR...BELIEVE THE GFS IS NOT HANDLING THE SHALLOW AIRMASS
VERY WELL SO WILL NOT CHANGE THE PREVIOUS TIMING OF PAST MODEL
RUNS. IN ADDITION...THE GFS CONTINUES TO SWING BACK AND FORTH WITH
OVERRUNNING DEVELOPING BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. WITH
THE 00Z ECMWF AND THE 00Z GFS BOTH PROGGING A 500MB TROUGH
DEEPENING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES/NORTHERN MEXICO
MONDAY AND BOTH PROGGING CONSIDERABLE LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE
ACROSS THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF TEXAS BEHIND THE FRONT...BELIEVE A
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IS WARRANTED FOR MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. THE TOUGHER QUESTION IS THE TYPE OF PRECIPITATION AND
WITH GFS SOUNDINGS INDICATING NEARLY SATURATED AIR
ALOFT...TEMPERATURES NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING ALOFT AND NEAR THE
SURFACE...THE POSSIBILITY OF MIXED PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY WITH
LIGHT RAIN/SLEET/FREEZING RAIN ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE CWA...LIGHT RAIN/SLEET ELSEWHERE. WITH
TEMPERATURES LIKELY NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING ACROSS NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA MON NIGHT/TUES MORNING...MORE FROZEN
PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY THAN MIXED. AS THE LOW TO MID LEVEL
MOISTURE DIMINISHES TUES NIGHT...THE CHANCE OF MIXED PRECIPITATION
SHOULD COME TO AN END WITH DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO SOUTHEAST TX
WEDNESDAY. 32
&&

[ROLLTIDE]

L.King Day: A slight chance of sleet or rain. Cloudy, with a high near 49. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Monday Night: A chance of rain, freezing rain, or sleet. Cloudy, with a low around 32. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Tuesday: A slight chance of rain, freezing rain, or sleet. Cloudy, with a high near 43. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

[ROLLTIDE]

Monday Night: A chance of rain, freezing rain, or sleet. Cloudy, with a low around 31. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

Tuesday: A chance of rain, freezing rain, or sleet. Cloudy, with a high near 39. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

Tuesday Night: A chance of rain, freezing rain, or sleet. Cloudy, with a low around 29. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

Wednesday: A chance of rain, freezing rain, or sleet. Cloudy, with a high near 45. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

[ROLLTIDE]

Special Weather Statement

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX541 AM CST FRI JAN 12 2007TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-130000-HOUSTON-TRINITY-MADISON-WALKER-SAN JACINTO-POLK-BURLESON-BRAZOS-WASHINGTON-GRIMES-MONTGOMERY-LIBERTY-COLORADO-AUSTIN-WALLER-HARRIS-CHAMBERS-WHARTON-FORT BEND-JACKSON-MATAGORDA-BRAZORIA-GALVESTON-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CROCKETT...TRINITY...GROVETON...MADISONVILLE. ..HUNTSVILLE...SHEPHERD...COLDSPRING...LIVINGSTON. ..CORRIGAN...ONALASKA...CALDWELL...LAKE SOMERVILLE...COLLEGE STATION...BRYAN...BRENHAM...NAVASOTA...THE WOODLANDS...CONROE...WILLIS...LIBERTY...CLEVELAND. ..DAYTON...COLUMBUS...EAGLE LAKE...WEIMAR...SEALY...BELLVILLE...HEMPSTEAD...PR AIRIE VIEW...BROOKSHIRE...HOUSTON...PASADENA...KATY...TO MBALL...HUMBLE...WINNIE...MONT BELVIEU...ANAHUAC...EL CAMPO...WHARTON...PIERCE...SUGAR LAND...MISSOURI CITY...RICHMOND...ROSENBERG...EDNA...BAY CITY...PALACIOS...PEARLAND...LAKE JACKSON...ALVIN...ANGLETON...FREEPORT...LEAGUE CITY...TEXAS CITY...FRIENDSWOOD...GALVESTON541 AM CST FRI JAN 12 2007...ARCTIC COLD FRONT LATE IN THE WEEKEND...A STRONG COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH SOUTHEAST TEXASSOMETIME BETWEEN LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY MORNING. EXPECTA ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT AS IT PUSHESTHROUGH. MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED IN ITS WAKE WITHDAYTIME HIGHS STRUGGLING TO REACH THE 40S MONDAY AND TUESDAY.OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE BELOW FREEZING MONDAY NIGHT THROUGHTHURSDAY NIGHT. LOCATIONS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST SHOULD BESPARED THE FREEZING TEMPERATURES...BUT WILL STILL BE QUITE COLD.THE PAST SEVERAL COMPUTER FORECAST MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN SHOWING THEPOTENTIAL FOR SOME MOISTURE OVERRUNNING THE COLD AIRMASS AT THESURFACE AND PRODUCING PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION BETWEEN MONDAYNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. DUE TO SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURESDURING THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS...THIS PRECIPITATION COULDBE A MIXTURE OF RAIN...FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET. CONSIDERABLEUNCERTAINTY EXISTS THIS FAR OUT IN TIME REGARDING LOCATIONS THATWILL BE MOST AT RISK OF THE FROZEN PRECIPITATION AND TIMES THAT ITMIGHT OCCUR...IF IT EVEN ENDS UP OCCURRING AT ALL. AT THISTIME...IT APPEARS THAT MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS EXCEPTTHE IMMEDIATE COAST WILL HAVE A CHANCE OF FROZEN PRECIPITATION ATSOME POINT BETWEEN MONDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. AREAS BOUNDEDBETWEEN BRENHAM...LIVINGSTON...ANAHUAC AND EDNA LOOK TO HAVE THEBETTER CHANCES TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.RESIDENTS ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS MAY WANT TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THEUPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND TO SHELTER SENSITIVE PLANTS AND MAKE ANYOTHER PREPARATIONS NECESSARY TO WINTERIZE YOUR PROPERTY. WE WANT TOSTRESS THAT THIS IS A DEVELOPING SITUATION AND THE FORECAST ISBOUND TO CHANGE AS THE EVENT NEARS AND ADDITIONAL DATA BECOMESAVAILABLE TO LOOK AT. PLEASE MONITOR THE LATEST UPDATED FORECASTSTHROUGH THE WEEKEND.$$

[ROLLTIDE]

THE REST OF THE FCST CAN BE PRETTY MUCH BE DESCRIBED AS A LOWER
CONFIDENCE NIGHTMARE. STRONG ARCTIC FRONT WILL STILL ARRIVE IN SE
TX BUT TIMING IS STILL UP IN THE AIR. THE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE
SLOWED IT DOWN EVEN FURTHER - NOW PUSHING IT OFF THE UPPER TX
COAST MONDAY MORNING. NAM IS FASTER. WILL LEAVE CURRENT FCST TIMING
THAT WE HAVE GOING (OFF THE COAST SUN EVENING). REASONING IS THAT
THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE KNOWN TO BE SLOW WITH THE TIMING OF THESE
SHALLOW COLD ARCTIC AIRMASSES. THIS ONE SHOULD ALSO BE FAIRLY
UNMODIFIED CONSIDERING THE SNOWPACK ACROSS THE CNTRL U.S.. CANNOT
UNDERSTAND WHY THIS BOUNDARY WOULD STALL BETWEEN DALLAS AND
MADISONVILLE FOR 24+ HOURS AS IS CURRENTLY DEPICTED IN THE 00Z
GFS. SO...THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR A HUGE TEMP BUST SUN NIGHT IF
THE GLOBAL MODELS DO ACTUALLY VERIFY. COOR WITH OUR NEIGHBORS AND
CAME UP WITH ABOUT THE SAME THINKING SO I GUESS WE WON`T BE
ALONE...

NOW FOR THE MOST DIFFICULT PART OF THE FCST: PRECIP AND WHAT
VARIETY. EXPECT SHRA/TSTMS TO MOVE THRU ALONG THE INITIAL FRONT.
THEN OVERRUNNING PRECIP IS FCST BY SEVERAL MODELS AS THE TEMPS
PLUNGE MON NIGHT-WED. BASED ON FCST SOUNDINGS...IT APPEARS NRN
2/3 OF THE AREA COULD SEE A MIX OF -RA/FZRA/SLEET LATE MON NIGHT.
ALL OF SE TX...EXCEPT THE NEAR IMMEDIATE COAST...COULD SEE THE
SAME TYPE VARIETY TUES MORNING, TUES NIGHT AND WED MORNING
DEPENDING ON THE LOCATION OF THE PRECIP. RIGHT NOW MODELS ARE
FAVORING THE SOUTHERN 2/3 TUE-WED MORNING. WENT AHEAD AND UPDATED
GRIDS AND FCST BASED ON THIS THINKING. DID NOT GO AS HIGH A
GUIDANCE POPS DUE TO CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT BUT DO
WANT TO BEGIN HITTING IT A LITTLE HARDER CONSIDERING THE UPCOMING
EXTENDED HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND PLAN ON ISSUING AN SPS LATER IN THE
SHIFT.

AGAIN...WANT TO STRESS THAT FCST CONFIDENCE IS ON THE LOW END. BUT
THERE COULD BE SOME HEADACHES IF ALL OR EVEN PART OF THIS WINTERY
MIX MATERIALIZES - ESP THE FZRA. NEEDLESS TO SAY...BEARS WATCH
CONTINUES :) 47

[ROLLTIDE]

ARCTIC BLAST WITH THE THREAT OF WINTER WEATHER ON THE WAY FOR MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...

AFTER SOME UNUSUALLY WARM WEATHER WITH WHAT FEELS LIKE A WARM FALL DAY...HIGHS IN THE 70S TODAY AND SATURDAY...MOTHER NATURE WILL DRIVE A AN ARCTIC AIRMASS INTO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY. TEMPERATURE DROPS OF 20 DEGREES WILL BE COMMON WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE NEW AIRMASS. AS THE COLD AIR DEEPENS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY THE THREAT OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE OVER AREAS GENERALLY NORTH OF THE HIGHWAY 59 CORRIDOR. THE GROUND SHOULD BE WARM AND THIS WOULD HINDER THE FORMATION OF ICE ON ROADS SUNDAY NIGHT BUT BY NOON ON MONDAY BRIDGES AND ELEVATED ROADS IN THE AREAS NORTH OF A COLUMBUS TO HUNTSVILLE TO GROVETON LINE MAY BEGINNING TO FREEZE UP DUE TO THE FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET THAT WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING. THE TEMPERATURE RANGE ON MONDAY WILL BE SMALL AND SHOULD HOVER BETWEEN 30 AND 37 DEGREES FOR MOST OF THIS AREA. LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON THE THREAT OF ROADWAYS ICING UP SHOULD EXPAND SOUTHWARD TO INCLUDE THE HOUSTON METROPLEX AND GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE HIGHWAY 59 CORRIDOR. WITH NIGHTFALL MONDAY THE THREAT OF SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN WILL INCREASE AS TEMPERATURES SLOWLY DROP. TO SOUTH THE SOUTH OF THE HIGHWAY 59 CORRIDOR TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR ABOVE FREEZING ON MONDAY SO ONLY RAIN OR PERHAPS SOME SLEET MAY GET MIXED IN MONDAY NIGHT. TUESDAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE COLD WITH THE THREAT OF RAIN...FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET CONTINUING ACROSS THE REGION. ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO 1/2 INCH MAY BE POSSIBLE. TRAVEL MAY BE SEVERELY HAMPERED ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS. ONE LAST SHOT OF MOISTURE WILL RIDE UP OVER THE REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY AND COULD BRING SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE COASTAL AREAS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW FREEZING WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR AREAS FROM FROM BRENHAM TO HUNTSVILLE TO GROVETON. ACROSS THE CENTRAL BELT OF THE AREA...COLUMBUS TO HOUSTON TO LIBERTY...AT OR BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AREAS NEAR THE COAST COULD EXPERIENCE FREEZING TEMPERATURES TUESDAY MORNING FOR A FEW HOURS BUT 3 TO 6 HOURS OF FREEZING TEMPERATURES LOOK POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY MORNING.

WIND CHILL INDICES OF 15 TO 30 DEGREES WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS WITH THE COLDER READINGS OVER THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT WIND CHILL VALUES OF 15 TO 25 DEGREES WILL BE COMMONPLACE ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

A WINTER STORM WATCH MAY BE ISSUED FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON OR NIGHT.

RESIDENTS ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS SHOULD TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND TO SHELTER SENSITIVE PLANTS AND MAKE ANY OTHER PREPARATIONS NECESSARY TO WINTERIZE YOUR PROPERTY. WE WANT TO STRESS THAT THIS IS A DEVELOPING SITUATION AND THE FORECAST IS BOUND TO CHANGE AS THE EVENT NEARS AND ADDITIONAL DATA BECOMES AVAILABLE TO LOOK AT. PLEASE MONITOR THE LATEST UPDATED FORECASTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

[ROLLTIDE]

Sunday: Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly after noon. Areas of fog before 9am. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a high near 74. North wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Sunday Night: Rain likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 35. North wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

M.L.King Day: A 50 percent chance of rain. Cloudy, with a high near 40.

Monday Night: A chance of rain and sleet, mixing with freezing rain after 11pm. Cloudy, with a low around 30. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

Tuesday: A chance of rain, freezing rain, or sleet. Cloudy, with a high near 38. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

Tuesday Night: A chance of rain, freezing rain, or sleet. Cloudy, with a low around 29. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

Wednesday: A chance of rain, freezing rain, or sleet. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 45. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

Wednesday Night: A slight chance of freezing rain or rain. Partly cloudy, with a low around 28. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

[ROLLTIDE]

Tonight: Showers and thunderstorms likely. Cloudy, with a low around 49. North wind between 10 and 20 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Sunday: Rain likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 54. North wind between 15 and 20 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Sunday Night: Rain likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 35. North wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

M.L.King Day: Rain likely. Cloudy, with a high near 38. North wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Monday Night: Rain likely before 9pm, then freezing rain and sleet likely. Cloudy, with a low around 29. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Tuesday: Freezing rain and sleet likely before 10am, then a chance of rain. Cloudy, with a high near 39. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Tuesday Night: A chance of rain, freezing rain, or sleet. Cloudy, with a low around 30. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Wednesday: A chance of rain, freezing rain, or sleet. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 44. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

[ROLLTIDE]

DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MAKE SLOW BUT STEADY PROGRESS ACROSS NORTH
AND NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS THIS MORNING. 15Z ANALYSIS
HAS THE BOUNDARY FROM RIGHT AROUND CROCKETT TO BETWEEN COLLEGE
STATION AND BRENHAM. TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT HAVE QUICKLY
DROPPED INTO THE 50S AND 40S WHILE READINGS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ARE
IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT WILL GO IN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS? THAT REMAINS THE BIG QUESTION THIS MORNING. THE
FRONT HAS BEEN MOVING FASTER THAN ANY MODELS HAVE INDICATED...AND
THIS HAS RESULTED IN THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLDER TEMPERATURES FASTER
THAN ANTICIPATED. SOME OF THE 12Z MODELS ARE INDICATING STEADY
FRONTAL PROGRESS TOWARD OUR CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL ZONES TONIGHT
THEN MOVE THE BOUNDARY BACK NORTH DURING THE DAY TOMORROW...THEN
FINALLY MOVE IT OFF THE COAST SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE COLDER AIRMASS
FINALLY SINKS INTO THE AREA. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PROGRESS TOWARD THE COAST TONIGHT AND SHOULD BE
OFF THE COAST BEFORE SUNRISE TOMORROW MORNING. CURRENT FORECAST
PACKAGE REFLECTS THIS THINKING SO NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. IF THE FRONT MOVES FASTER THAN ANTICIPATED
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...WILL HAVE TO DO SOME UPDATES. CURRENT
SPSHGX HAS THE WINTER WEATHER SCENARIO COVERED WELL. 42

&&

&&

[ROLLTIDE]

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Houston/galveston Tx
341 Pm Cst Sat Jan 13 2007

Txz163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-141200-
Houston-trinity-madison-walker-san Jacinto-polk-burleson-brazos-
Washington-grimes-montgomery-liberty-colorado-austin-waller-
Harris-chambers-wharton-fort Bend-jackson-matagorda-brazoria-
Galveston-
Including The Cities Of...crockett...trinity...groveton...
Madisonville...huntsville...shepherd...coldspring. ..livingston...
Corrigan...onalaska...caldwell...lake Somerville...
College Station...bryan...brenham...navasota...the Woodlands...
Conroe...willis...liberty...cleveland...dayton...c olumbus...
Eagle Lake...weimar...sealy...bellville...hempstead...
Prairie View...brookshire...houston...pasadena...katy...to mball...
Humble...winnie...mont Belvieu...anahuac...el Campo...wharton...
Pierce...sugar Land...missouri City...richmond...rosenberg...
Edna...bay City...palacios...pearland...lake Jackson...alvin...
Angleton...freeport...league City...texas City...friendswood...
Galveston
341 Pm Cst Sat Jan 13 2007

...threat Of Winter Weather Increasing Across Portions Of Southeast Texas
Sunday Night Into Wednesday Morning...

An Arctic Cold Front Will Continue To Slowly Move Through Southeast
Texas Tonight...with The Coldest Air Expected To Arrive Late Sunday
And Persist Into The Middle Part Of Next Week.

Pacific And Gulf Moisture Along With Embedded Upper Level Disturbances
Will Continue To Overrun The Cold Airmass At The Surface And Will Lead
To Periods Of Precipitation Through Wednesday Morning. As Surface Temperatures
Fall Below Freezing...the Threat Of Ice Accumulations Will Increase.

Though We Will Continue To Monitor The Latest Data And Adjust The Forecast
Accordingly...this Is How The Scenario Is Currently Forecast To Evolve:

Tonight...locally Heavy Rainfall Is Possible Across The Northern Portions
Of Southeast Texas...roughly Along And North Of A Line From Columbus
To Livingston. Rainfall Accumulations Of 1 To 3 Inches May Lead To Some
Localized Flooding.

Sunday Night And Monday...locations North Of A Line From Brenham To
Livingston Should See Temperatures Fall Below The Freezing Mark In The
Evening. What Will Initially Start As Rain Will Transition To Freezing
Rain Overnight. Liquid Precipitation...possibly Mixed With A Little
Bit Of Sleet...is Then Expected From Late Monday Morning Through The
Early Evening Hours With Temperatures Just Above Freezing. Areas To
The South Should See Rain.

Monday Night...freezing Temperatures Are Expected Across Almost All
Of Southeast Texas Except Locations Near The Immediate Coast. Rain
Should Transition To Freezing Rain And Sleet Through The Night.

Tuesday...inland Temperatures Are Expected To Hover At Or Just Above
Freezing Resulting In A Mix Of Rain...freezing Rain And Sleet. Coastal
Locations Are Expected To Remain Above Freezing Resulting In Only Rain.
It Appears The Best Available Moisture May Gradually Shift Southward
During The Day. Locations South Of A Brenham To Livingston Line Should
See The Better Chances Of Precipitation Than Those To The North.

Tuesday Night...inland Precipitation Will Once Again Fall As Freezing
Rain And Sleet As Surface Temperatures Fall Below Freezing. Again...areas
South Of The Line From Brenham To Livingston Should Have The Better
Chances Of Receiving The More Significant Accumulating Frozen Precipitation.

Wednesday...lingering Sleet And Freezing Rain Early In The Morning Should
Come To An End As Temperatures Warm In The Late Morning And Afternoon.
This Should Bring An End To The Threat Of Frozen Precipitation.

The Threat Of Significant Ice Accumulations Associated With Freezing
Rain And Sleet Appears To Be Increasing. Ice Accumulations Between
1/4 Inch And 1/2 Inch May Occur. If This Materializes...driving Conditions
Will Become Extremely Hazardous Especially On Bridges And Overpasses.
In Addition...trees And Power Lines May Come Down. A Winter Storm
Watch May Need To Be Issued For Northern Portions Of The Southeast
Texas Later Tonight Or Early Sunday To Give Appropriate Lead Time
For The Upcoming Threat. Additional Watches May Be Required Further
South For Monday Night. Wind Chill Index Values Between 20 And 30
Degrees Are Expected Starting Sunday Night...and Readings Could Go
As Low As 10 To 20 Degrees Monday Night Through Wednesday Morning.

Residents Across Southeast Texas Should Take Advantage Of The Remaining
Warm Hours To Shelter Sensitive Plants And Pets And Make Any Other Preparations
Necessary To Winterize Your Property. Check On Those With Special Needs
And The Elderly To Make Sure They Are Prepared Should This Winter Weather
Event Materialize. Precautions Should Be Taken By Those That Must Venture
Outside. If You Must Go Outside...wear Protective Clothing To Stay Dry
And Warm And Make Certain All Extremities Are Covered.

Please Monitor The Latest Updated Weather Forecasts Through The Remainder
Of The Weekend And On Into The Start Of The Upcoming Week.

[ROLLTIDE]

.L.King Day: Periods of rain. High near 37. North wind between 15 and 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%.

Monday Night: Rain likely, mixing with freezing rain after 9pm. Cloudy, with a low around 29. North wind between 15 and 20 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Tuesday: Rain, freezing rain and sleet likely, mainly before 10am. Cloudy, with a high near 33. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Tuesday Night: A chance of rain, freezing rain and sleet. Cloudy, with a low around 29. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Wednesday: A chance of rain, freezing rain, or sleet. Cloudy, with a high near 42. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Wednesday Night: A chance of sleet or rain. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 31. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

[Race2Beach]

Urgent - Winter Weather Message National Weather Service Houston/galveston Tx 509 Am Cst Sun Jan 14 2007


...threat Of Frozen Precipitation Increasing By Late Monday Afternoon...


Brazos-burleson-grimes-houston-madison-trinity-walker-washington-

Including The Cities Of...brenham...bryan...caldwell... College Station...crockett...groveton...huntsville... Lake Somerville...madisonville...navasota...trinity 509 Am Cst Sun Jan 14 2007


...winter Storm Watch In Effect From Monday Afternoon Through Late Monday Night...



The National Weather Service In Houston/galveston Has Issued A Winter Storm Watch...which Is In Effect From Monday Afternoon Through Late Monday Night.

A Stronger Surge Of Cold Arctic Air Is Forecast To Filter Into The Area Later Tonight And Through The Day Monday. Periods Of Overrunning Rainfall Are Expected To Continue As This Occurs. Temperatures Should Be Falling Through The Day On Monday And May Fall Below The Freezing Mark Late Monday Afternoon. As This Occurs...rain Will Begin Freezing As It Hits The Ground. Initially...late Monday Afternoon...



The Primary Threat For Ice Accumulation Will Be On Elevated Structures Such As Bridges And Overpasses. Travel Will Become Hazardous. By Monday Night...temperatures Will Continue To Fall And Precipitation Will Become Primarily Freezing Rain And Sleet. More Significant Ice Accumulations Are Expected.


In Addition To The Hazardous Travel...trees And Powerlines Will Increasingly Be At Risk Of Falling. Unfortunately...conditions Are Not Expected To Improve For A Couple Days As Mix Of Freezing Rain And Sleet May Continue Into Early Wednesday Morning. This Watch May Eventually Need To Be Upgraded To A Warning And Extended Further In Time.



A Winter Storm Watch Means There Is A Potential For Significant Snow...sleet...or Ice Accumulations That May Impact Travel. Please Continue To Monitor The Latest Updated Forecasts On This Developing Weather Situation.

[ROLLTIDE]

Today: Showers and thunderstorms likely. Cloudy, with a high near 53. North wind between 5 and 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

Tonight: Rain likely and possibly a thunderstorm. Cloudy, with a low around 40. North wind around 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

M.L.King Day: Periods of rain. Temperature falling to around 34 by 5pm. North wind between 15 and 20 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%.

Monday Night: Rain likely, mixing with freezing rain after 9pm. Cloudy, with a low around 28. Wind chill values between 15 and 23. North wind between 15 and 20 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

Tuesday: Freezing rain and sleet likely. Cloudy, with a high near 31. North wind between 15 and 20 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

Tuesday Night: Freezing rain and sleet likely. Cloudy, with a low around 28. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Wednesday: A chance of freezing rain and sleet before 10am, then a chance of rain. Cloudy, with a high near 40. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Wednesday Night: A 30 percent chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 31.

[ROLLTIDE]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/galveston Tx
1008 Am Cst Sun Jan 14 2007

Winter Storm Conditions An Increasing Possibility Starting On Monday.

.discussion...
Not A Whole Lot Of Changes Made On The Morning Update. We Did Put Out
A Dense Fog Advisory Through Noon For The Southern Two-thirds Of The
Area...bays And Nearshore Waters Due To Numerous Reports Of Visibilities
At 1/4 Mile Or Less. We May Need To Extend This Npw After Noon. The
Shallow Cold Front Continues To Make Slow Progress Toward The Upper
Coast With The Boundary Probably Extending From Just East Of Corrigan
To Around Liberty To League City To Between Angleton And Bay City And
Then Off The Coast Around Matagorda Bay. Morning Models Continue To
Be Performing Poorly (and That`s Putting It Nicely!) With The Frontal
Position And Future Movement. 12z Runs In So Far Still Have The Front
Moving Back To The North Today With Iah Warming Into The Lower 60s On
South Winds Around 10 Mph. This Will Not Happen! Current Forecast Has
The Front Moving All The Way Off The Coast This Morning And Staying
Offshore And Will Make No Changes To This Thinking. Colder Air That
Will Create Our Frozen Precip Event Will Begin Working Its Way Into
The Northern Portions Of Southeast Texas Later Tonight. Readings Should
Get Cold Enough During The Day On Monday For The Winter Weather Event
To Begin. A Winter Storm Watch Is Out For Our Northern Counties Beginning
Monday Afternoon. Will Evaluate Everything This Afternoon And Make
Adjustments (maybe Beginning The Watch A Little Earlier?) If Needed.
The Flash Flood Watch Remains In Effect Through 4 Pm This Afternoon
For Northern Counties Where Anywhere From 1 To Close To 4 Inches Of
Rain Fell Late Yesterday Afternoon And Overnight. Although There Are
No Rains Falling Right Now...anything That Does Develop Across Already
Wet Grounds This Afternoon Has The Potential To Lead To Flooding.

[ROLLTIDE]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/galveston Tx
1217 Pm Cst Sun Jan 14 2007

.update...
Incredibly...unexpectedly...frustratingly...the Slow Moving Cold
Front Is Moving Back To The North. Hobby Airport Was 55 Degrees At 7
Am...now They Are At 73 Degrees! Similar Scenarios Have Unfolded
Across Much Of The Surrounding Area This Morning.
Amazingly...angleton Is At 76 Degrees With A South Wind At 22
Gusting To 29! Even Temperatures Further North Are Going Up -
College Station Was At 39 This Morning And Is Now At 43. Have Done A
Grid Update As Best As We Could To Reflect What We Think Will Happen
This Afternoon And A Updated Forecast Package Will Be Out Shortly.
Cannot Spend A Whole Lot Of Time Doing Additional Updates This
Afternoon Due To Work Needed On The Upcoming Winter Weather Event.
We Can Only Hope That This New Forecast Will Be Better Than This
Morning`s Forecast.