Reply With Quote
Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KHGX 271504
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1004 AM CDT TUE OCT 27 2009
.UPDATE...
MORNING FORECAST UPDATE.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLEAR SE TX TODAY AS VIS SATELLITE
SHOWS. CLOUDS THIS MORNING WILL LIMIT TEMPS ALONG WITH WEAK COLD
ADVECTION OVER THE AREA. SUSPECT MOST AREAS WILL BE IN THE 60S.
MAIN UPDATES TO THE FORECAST WAS TO REMOVE POPS FOR THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES AND UPDATE SKY/TEMPS FOR TODAY. THE REST OF THE FORECAST
LOOKS ON TRACK. LOOKS LIKE WET PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THU/FRI.
39
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 AM CDT TUE OCT 27 2009/
DISCUSSION...
UPPER TROF IN THE PROCESS OF FINALLY MOVING EAST OF THE REGION.
N/NERN ZONES MAY SEE SOME SPRINKLES IN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS AS OT
DOES SO. SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR FROM W TO E THIS MORNING.
VIRTUALLY ALL THE CWA SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY TOWARD LUNCH. ONSHORE
FLOW RESUMES WED AND QUICKLY INCREASES THRU THE DAY AND NIGHT AS
PRESSURES FALL ACROSS THE PLAINS AND A 40-50KT LLVL JET DEVELOPS.
CHANCES OF RAIN RE-ENTER THE FCST BY WED AFTN AS AMPLE GULF
MOISTURE BEGINS MAKING ITS WAY TO THE COAST...AND CONTINUES TO
INCREASE FOR AN ADDITIONAL 24 HOURS OR SO AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT
THAT WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE REGION. MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT
REGARDING TIMING OF THE FRONT...GENERALLY MAKING IT INTO THE CWA
LATE THURS AFTN AND OFF THE COAST THURS NIGHT. SIMILAR TO YDAYS
SYSTEM...THE UPPER TROF WILL LAG OFF TO THE WEST SO POST FRONTAL
PRECIP LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET INTO FRIDAY BEFORE IT MOVES EAST OF
THE AREA FRI NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS MORE POTENT THAT YDAYS -
TROF IS DEEPER AND THERE WILL BE QUITE A BIT MORE WIND ENERGY AND
AVAILABLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. CANNOT RULE OUT ANY WX SCENARIO
AT THIS POINT (SVR WX AND/OR HEAVY RAINFALL). CURRENT THINKING IS
SCT/NUMEROUS SHRA/STORMS WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP THURS WITH INCREASING
MOISTURE & HEATING BUT WITHOUT SFC BOUNDARY IN PLACE THE FLOOD
THREAT SHOULD BE KEPT MOSTLY IN CHECK. BUT AS THE FRONT ARRIVES
LATER IN THE AFTN AND NIGHT AND A SFC FOCUS COMES INTO PLAY WILL
PROBABLY ORGANIZE INTO A SQUALL LINE WITH MORE INTENSE RATES AND
TRAINING CELLS. GROUND IS GETTING SATURATED AND PROBABLY WON`T
TAKE AS MUCH RAINFALL AS YDAY TO CAUSE SOME PROBLEMS. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR BUT WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED TO SEE ANOTHER FF
WATCH DOWN THE ROAD. 47
MARINE...
WILL MAINTAIN THE SCA FOR THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE MORNING AND
SCEC FOR THE BAYS AS EVIDENT BY THE CURRENT OBS. BUT STILL EXPECTING
WINDS TO DECREASE THIS AFTN AS THE FRONT MOVES OFF AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS DOWN OFF THE PLAINS. ONSHORE WINDS TO RETURN OVERNIGHT AS THE
NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES QUICKLY FROM THE WEST AND ADVISORY CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN AREAWIDE WEDS AFTN. THIS STRONG ONSHORE FLOW
TO PERSIST UNTIL LATE THURS/FRI AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE
COASTAL WATERS. 41
AVIATION...
DESPITE THE BEST OF INTENTIONS YESTERDAY...CIGS/VISBYS HAVE REMAINED
IN THE IFR (TO LIFR) RANGE OVERNIGHT/THIS MORNING. BUT WITH THE MUCH
DRIER AIR FILTERING DOWN AND THE ASSOCIATED LOW MOVING OFF TO THE NE
WE SHOULD BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT STARTING MID/LATE MORNING (16-18Z) FROM
THE W/NW. VFR THEREAFTER. 41
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 68 54 79 71 79 / 10 0 10 40 60
HOUSTON (IAH) 69 54 80 73 80 / 10 0 20 40 60
GALVESTON (GLS) 69 63 79 74 81 / 10 0 30 40 50
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...39
Bookmarks