Reply With QuoteRain has been catching the far southeast corner of Texas for the last 12 hours. Some areas have had 4 inches.
DISCUSSION...
NORTHERN TEXAS CENTERED UPPER RIDGING WILL SLOWLY STRENGTHEN AND
LIFT UP INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. ATMOSPHERE IS
FAIRLY MOIST WITH A FORECAST OF MORE SATURATED COLUMNS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. NUMEROUS PERIODS OF PLUS 2 INCH PWATS...WITH REGION FALLING
UNDER A WEAKER INFLUENCE OF NORTHERN RIDGING...HAS RECURRING CHANCE
POPS IN THE DURING THE HEAT OF THE DAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS ALL SHOW
GRADUAL SATURATION AND AFTERNOON INVERTED V`S...AN INDICATION THAT
ANY STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR WET MICROBURSTS. TODAY`S RAIN CHANCES
LOOK SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...VERY ISOLATED IN NATURE. CONVECTIVE
PROBABILITIES INCREASE ON FRI-SAT...AS WELL AS ON MON-TUE...FROM
RIDGE WEAKNESS EITHER ALLOWING THE SEA BREEZE TO FIRE OR A PASSING
WEAK VORT TO INITIATE HEAT-OF-THE-DAY ACTIVITY. 30 POPS HAVE BEEN
PLACED WHERE HIGHER MOISTURE AND/OR BETTER UPPER DIVERGENCE WILL
RESIDE.
TEMPERATURE BEHAVIOR WILL ONLY BE AFFECTED BY THE STRENGTH AND/OR
INFLUENCE OF THE CENTRAL U.S.-CENTERED 5H RIDGE. THOSE DAYS OF HIGHER
RAIN/CLOUD COVERAGE WILL EQUATE TO MAX TEMPS IN THE 95-98F RANGE...
WHILE LESS COVERAGE WILL HAVE MANY SITES TOPPING OUT IN THE 98-102F
RANGE. PER HIGHER AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES (SEE ABOVE)...PM TDS WILL
ONLY MIX OUT IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. AS AMBIENT TEMPERATURES
REACH THE UPPER 90S...HEAT INDICES WILL EXCEED 106 F. IF WE REACH
(OR ANTICIPATE) 108F TWO CONSECUTIVE DAYS...THEN A HEAT ADVISORY WILL
BE IN ORDER. 31
Otherwise, the only thing that's changed is the date.
Rain has been catching the far southeast corner of Texas for the last 12 hours. Some areas have had 4 inches.
The radar shows a different picture this morning. For the last few days, the showers, and thunderstorms, were stationary or slowly drifting in any direction. Most movement was due to outflow.
This morning, the showers are from the south and developing further to the west.
Local wizards say:
DISCUSSION...
TROPICAL STORM DON NOW IN THE S GULF IS HOLDING ONTO SOME DEEP
CONVECTION BUT THE CIRCULATIONS REMAINS COMPACT. LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE HAVE DON TRACKING OFF TO THE NW AND THEN WNW BY THE END
OF THE WEEK. DON SHOULD PUSH INLAND FRI NIGHT ALONG THE LOWER TX
COAST WITH DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE SPREADING ALONG THE TX GULF
COAST. GIVEN ITS SIZE AND STRUCTURE...DON MAY HAVE TROUBLE
INTENSIFYING. UPPER LEVEL WINDS SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 20 TO EVEN
30 KNOTS FROM THE EAST ACROSS THE GULF. EASTERLY SHEAR SHOULD
ALSO KEEP TS DON FROM INTENSIFYING TOO MUCH. MOST OF THE MODELS
KEEP TS DON AS A WEAK TO MODERATE T.S. EASTERLY SHEAR MAY REMAIN
IN PLACE ACROSS THE GULF AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
CAROLINAS TODAY BEGINS TO BUILD FASTER OVER THE S PLAINS. THIS
MAY ALSO KEEP TS DON ON A TRACK FARTHER SOUTH THAN PREVIOUS
FORECASTS SUGGESTED.
RIGHT NOW THE MAIN IMPACTS FROM TS DON WILL BE MARINE AND
RAINFALL. GIVEN ITS SMALL SIZE...THE WIND THREAT WILL BE CONFINED
TO THE CIRCULATION. TIDES MAY RUN ABOUT A FOOT ABOVE NORMAL BUT
NOT EXPECTED TO CAUSE ANY COASTAL FLOODING. WHILE SE TX COULD
STILL RECEIVE RAINFALL...THE HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT MAY BE FARTHER
SOUTH. THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY WILL DROP POPS TO 50 PERCENT FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH FRI NIGHT WITH THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN AREAS. WILL MENTION HEAVY RAINFALL
MAINLY DUE TO PRECIP WATER VALUES JUMPING TO AROUND 2.4-2.5 WHICH
WOULD SUPPORT HIGHER HOURLY RAINRATES. TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL
LIKELY LINGER ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY WITH PRECIP WATER
VALUES OF 2.2-2.4 INCHES. KEPT MAINLY 40/50 POPS IN PLACE FOR SCT
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. HEAVY RAINFALL MAY STILL BE POSSIBLE BUT
MORE LOCALIZED.
The pattern has definitely changed. Where we had numerous showers every day for the last week, the last two mornings have been very clear and the only clouds have been cumulous in the evenings. There were one or two small stray thunderstorms yesterday, but they were short lived and didn't drop much rain. Heat indexes are forecast in the triple digits for the next few days.
Local TV forecaster believes a TUTT low will influence the weather on Monday and Tuesday. Water vapor imagery shows this feature developing in northern Arkansas and moving to the south. What happens will be interesting. I've seen these lows generate some huge thundestorms that last for hours and don't dissipate until they've moved in the Gulf.
DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BE THE DOMINANT
WEATHER MAKE FOR THE NEXT EIGHT DAYS. THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO
SINK SOUTH TOWARD THE ARKLATEX BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MORE BRUTAL THAN USUAL THIS WEEK WITH
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS EXCEEDING 100 DEGREES. BRINGING DOWN THE 850
TEMP DRY ADIABATICALLY SUGGESTS THAT AREAS NORTH OF A BRENHAM TO
TRINITY LINE COULD ENDURE HIGH TEMPS AS HIGH AS 107 DEGREES ON
WED/THU. DEW PTS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO MIX OUT AND HEAT INDEX
VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE BETWEEN 105 AND 109 DEGREES. AM A BIT
CONCERNED THAT HIGHER MOISTURE ALONG AND EAST OF HWY 59 COULD
PRODUCE HEAT INDEX VALUES NEAR 110 TUE-FRI. WILL HAVE TO WATCH
THINGS CLOSELY AND PERHAPS A HEAT ADVISORY WILL BE REQUIRED.
RAIN CHANCES LOOK SLIM WITH THE ONLY CHANCE ON MON AND TUE AS TWO
VORT LOBES UNDERCUT THE RIDGE. THE GFS REMAINS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE
MODEL WRT RAIN CHANCES. THE GFS BRINGS PW VALUES UP TO 2.36 INCHES
WITH A K INDEX IN THE LOWER 40S. THE NAM AND ECMWF ARE NOT AS
AGGRESSIVE. WILL MAINTAIN 20 POPS FOR MON/TUE. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW
AN INVERTED V SIGNATURE SO IF CONVECTION CAN GET STARTED...SOME OF
THE STORMS WILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS. THE HIGH BEGINS TO WEAKEN
NEXT WEEKEND AND HEIGHTS BEGIN TO FALL AS AN INVERTED UPPER TROUGH
PUSHES WEST INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO COOL
A FEW DEGREES BUT THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY.
It's HOT!!! We are on day 48 here in Hallettsville, with no RAIN. Also it's day 36 with temps above 100, and we are forcasted to have at least another 7.
108 degrees, 31% humidity in Pearland Texas. It is hot today.
GOOD NEWS GOOD NEWS GOOD NEWS!!!!!!!!!!!
THE UPPER WEAKNESS MOVES INLAND ACROSS DRT TO DFW
CREATING A DEEP SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW RICH WITH GULF/CARIBBEAN
MOISTURE EXPANDING INTO SETX ON WEDNESDAY THEN CONTINUING TO FEED
INTO AND IN PLACE THURSDAY...FRIDAY... SATURDAY...AND SUNDAY AND
POSSIBLY THROUGH TUESDAY THE 6TH. RAIN CHANCES START WEDNESDAY
IN THE COASTAL WATERS AND THEN INTO SOUTHERN AREAS OF SETX BEFORE
SUNRISE THURSDAY. SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH
FRIDAY/SATURDAY LOOKING MUCH COOLER/CLOUDY/RAINY. WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA AND GIVEN THE ABUNDANCE OF
MOISTURE AND PERSISTENT LIFT WOULD NOT BE SHOCKED TO SEE RAINFALL
TOTALS BY TUESDAY THE 06 OF 2-5"!
My family in Houston says it is very serious there. Water rationing. Everything dying and you can get fined $2000 if you're caught watering your lawn. I think they are monitoring household water useage, and have very specific rules for showering, laundry, toilet flushing, etc. Very scary.
I pray the weather changes for them soon.
Ability is what you're capable of doing. Motivation determines what you do. Attitude determines how well you do it.Lou Holtz
It's raining here in Houston. I've measured 3/4in. since 9am this morning!
I just heard about the rain on Facebook! How crazy is it when people are so excited about rain that they are posting it all over Facebook!?
Ability is what you're capable of doing. Motivation determines what you do. Attitude determines how well you do it.Lou Holtz
Historically, September is one of the wettest months in SE TX. It looks we are only going to get 2.36" here this month.
See: http://web2.airmail.net/danb1/annualrainfall.htm
Audrey - 1957 - I was almost three and slept through it.
Cindy - 1963 - First hurricane that I remember
Bonnie - 1986 - Watching all the transformers explode
Rita - 2005 - The sounds that I did not know my house could make & the roar
Humberto - 2007 - Got 2" of rain
Ike - 2008 - A long blow
Only people with oversized egos believe that mankind has caused global warming.
Scientific Consensus is an Oxymoron
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