SE Texas Weather

[MandyM]

This heat is killing me ! Any relief in sight ????

[MandyM]

It's raining - woohooo
It's been over a month since we had some decent rain ! YAY !!

[jess]

My little section of Southeast Texas is dry. So dry the drip lines of trees is mapped out by a large ring of dead grass. The grass that isn't brown is so stressed, the growth is about 25% of what is normally is. While the local forecast is for rain, I don't see it happening today. The wind this morning is out of the north and the humidity is around 70%. It's a typical October morning, although it's September.

[jess]

Saturdays showers made it to Interstate 10, died out and reformed about 5 miles North. I didn't get a drop, so the drought continues.

[ROLLTIDE]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 091130
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
630 AM CDT WED SEP 9 2009

.AVIATION...
SHRA/TSRA CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES AND IN/NEAR
BOTH GALVESTON BAY AND MATAGORDA BAY. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE
THIS MORNING WITH EXPANSION OF ACTIVITY FURTHER INLAND AS THE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. VCSH AND/OR VCTS WILL BE FOUND IN ALL TAFS
FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. WILL HAVE A BRIEF WINDOW OF NO CONVECTION
THIS EVENING AND DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS TOMORROW...THEN BRING
VCSH BACK TO LOCATIONS NEAR THE COAST BEFORE SUNRISE. 42
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 AM CDT WED SEP 9 2009/

DISCUSSION...
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE INCREASING OVER FAR SW ZONES AND ADJACENT
COASTAL WATERS IN RESPONSE TO APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE.
THIS SHOWED UP WELL IN WATER VAPOR LOOP. DEEP MOIST LAYER NOW
OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR CWFA. PW VALUES RUNNING ABOUT 2.0
TO 2.2 INCHES OVER SW ZONES. COASTAL TROUGH/LOW PROGGED TO DEVELOP
THE NEXT 2 DAYS AS A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES PUSHES OVER
THE REGION. WITH AN INCREASINGLY MOIST ENVIRONMENT WE CAN EXPECT
GOOD RAIN CHANCES ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF OUR CWFA
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL A POSSIBILITY OVER
THE COASTAL SECTIONS. THIS OF COURSE WILL DEPENDS ON HOW THE
COASTAL TROUGH/LOW WILL EVOLVE. MODELS PROGGED A WEAK UPPER LOW
DEVELOPING OVER WEST TEXAS TODAY. OUR REGION REMAINS UNDER THE
TAIL END OF A MUCH LARGER UPPER LOW OVER NE STATES. THE BOTTOM
LINE IS THAT AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PREVAIL OVER LONE STAR STATE
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. LATEST ECMWF INDICATE THE UPPER TROUGH
CLOSING INTO A LOW OVER TEXAS LATE IN THE COMING WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. IF SO WE MAY NOT GET MUCH CHANGE FROM THE WET
PATTERN. WE SHALL SEE. FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WE STAYED CLOSE
TO GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES NUMBERS AND ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER
CONSIDERING THE VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT THAT WILL PREVAIL. 37

MARINE...
THE MARINE FORECAST IS GETTING A LITTLE MORE COMPLICATED AS WE HEAD
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK AND ON INTO THE WEEKEND. EXPECT PERIODS
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA. THE DIRECTION AND SPEED OF SURFACE WINDS WILL DEPEND ON
WHETHER OR NOT ANY SURFACE LOWS FORM OFF THE TEXAS COAST AND HEAD IN
OUR DIRECTION. THIS IS WHERE THE MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME PRETTY
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES RESULTING IN A VERY LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST.
MARINE INTERESTS SHOULD KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THE FORECASTS OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. 42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 91 72 91 73 90 / 40 20 30 30 30
HOUSTON (IAH) 89 73 89 73 89 / 40 30 40 30 50
GALVESTON (GLS) 86 76 85 76 85 / 50 30 50 40 50

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...37
AVIATION/MARINE...42

[jess]

Feast or famine. I'm afraid the feast of rain will be much more than many want. Beaumont, Texas had a band of showers park over the city yesterday, which caused localized flooding of underpasses and low streets. With the ground now saturated, two and three inch rains during the day will cause major problems in some areas. A long term rain event caused by a tropical sytem can lead to severe flooding of some of the local outfalls, especially if the tides are exceptionally high.

The shortwave is looking healthy on the water vapor imagery. So far, most of the rain is in the Gulf, but the heating of the day will probably lead to some hefty showers North of the coast. I'm watching the convection in the San Antonio area. If this moves due East, the heavy rains could extend into East Texas, which may lead to flooding of the local rivers. Since these rivers receive a substantial amount of the runoff, the flooding could turn into a long term event.

[ROLLTIDE]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 101127
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
627 AM CDT THU SEP 10 2009

.AVIATION...
IFR/LIFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL IMPROVE THIS MORNING AS
SHRA/TSRA COVERAGE INCREASES. HAVE INDICATED SHRA/TSRA NEAR THE
COASTAL TAF SITES EARLY THIS MORNING AND THEN FURTHER INLAND AS
THE DAY PROGRESSES. COULD SEE A REPEAT AGAIN TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING WITH LIFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. 42
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 AM CDT THU SEP 10 2009/

DISCUSSION...
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY INCREASING IN COVERAGE FROM PSX TO THE
COASTAL BEND. AREAL COVERAGE EXPECTED TO EXPAND NORTHEAST TO OUR
SOUTHERN ZONES DURING EARLY MORNING HOURS. LIKELY POPS FOR MOST
AREAS TODAY BUT BECOMING CATEGORICAL THIS AFTERNOON FOR SOUTHERN
ZONES. PERIODS OF SHRA/TSRA ANTICIPATED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER OVER REGION. WE WENT SLIGHTLY LOWER WITH
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES THAN MOS GUIDANCE. PW VALUES WILL REMAIN
QUITE HIGH NEXT SEVERAL DAYS ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN HALF OF
CWFA. AS PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED...A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE OVER OUR REGION. MODELS HAVE DIFFERENT
SOLUTIONS HOWEVER IN HANDLING UPPER LOW/TROUGH. SURFACE LOW/TROUGH
WILL DEVELOP NEAR TX COAST OR NW GULF NEXT TWO DAYS AND THEN MOVE
NORTHEAST. OUR CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH FOR LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND
INTO NEXT WEEK DUE TO EVEN LARGER DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS OFFERED BY
MODELS. UK/CANADIAN AND GFS AND NOW EVEN THE 06Z NAM RUN HINTING
AT SURFACE LOW MOVING INLAND SATURDAY NIGHT. IF SO THIS WILL USHER
NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS OUR REGION SUNDAY. WE STAYED CLOSER TO
GFS/CANADIAN MODELS WITH A GRADUAL DRYING TREND FROM EARLY TO
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. 37

MARINE...
A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES IN THE MARINE FORECAST. EXPECT
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS A
SERIES OF DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. WIND SPEED AND
DIRECTION...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WEEKEND...WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT
ON WHETHER OR NOT ANY SURFACE LOWS FORM OFF THE TEXAS COAST AND
WHERE THEY HEAD TO. LATEST MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING SIGNIFICANTLY
DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS RESULTING IN A VERY LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST.
MARINE INTERESTS ARE ADVISED TO BE PREPARED FOR POSSIBLY ABRUPT
CHANGES IN THE WIND AND WAVE FORECASTS AS WE HEAD ON INTO THE
WEEKEND. 42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 89 72 88 72 86 / 60 40 60 50 60
HOUSTON (IAH) 87 73 85 71 84 / 70 40 60 50 80
GALVESTON (GLS) 84 75 84 75 83 / 80 50 70 70 80

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...37

[ROLLTIDE]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 110437
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1137 PM CDT THU SEP 10 2009

.DISCUSSION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...
OVERALL THE THINKING BEHIND THE TAFS HAS NOT CHANGED. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY STILL SHOWS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH COMING ACROSS THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY AND S TX TONIGHT. SUSPECT THAT LARGE SCALE ASCENT
WILL INCREASE ALONG THE COAST LATER TONIGHT/EARLY IN THE MORNING.
THIS MAY STILL HELP A COASTAL LOW DEVELOP FRI MORNING. AS SUCH
STILL THINK MVFR/LIFR CIGS AND VSBY MAY DEVELOP DURING THE
MORNING BUT POSSIBLY DELAYED A FEW HOURS. MID SHIFT MAY HAVE TO
AMEND TAFS TO ACCOUNT FOR TIMING. TIMING OF CONVECTION STILL
REMAINS A CHALLENGE SO WILL CONTINUE WITH THE EVOLUTION OF
CONVECTION FROM THE PREVIOUS TAF PACKAGE. THIS MEANS TEMPO TSRA
FOR COASTAL TERMINALS IN THE MORNING AND THEN TEMPO TSRA IN THE
EARLY AFTERNOON FOR THE HOUSTON TERMINALS. WILL KEEP VCTS FARTHER
NORTH FOR KCLL...KUTS AND KCXO. GIVEN PERSISTENT LIFT THROUGH 06Z
TOMORROW...LIKELY HAVE VCTS CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE NE GIVEN THE COASTAL LOW
DEVELOPMENT.

39

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 910 PM CDT THU SEP 10 2009/

UPDATE...
PW STILL HOLDING AT 2.2" OVER THE SOUTH AND 2" NORTH. UPPER LOW
NEAR SAT NEARLY STATIONARY OR DRIFTING EAST AND A PRONOUNCED
SOUTHWESTERLY SPEED MAX MOVING INTO CRP AREA WITH SHRA/TSRA
DEVELOPING OVER THE SW ZONES AND NEAR CLL AT 9 PM...A GOOD
INDICATOR OF THE MOISTURE/INSTABILITY/LIFT THAT IS IN PLACE OVER
SETX TONIGHT. HAVE RAISED POPS OVER MAINLY THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT AND ADDED MENTION OF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL TO THE FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ALL THE
INGREDIENTS APPEAR TO BE IN PLACE THE ONLY ONE THAT SEEMS ON THE
LOW SIDE WILL BE THE HEATING FRIDAY...BUT CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE
MID 80S SHOULD STILL BE EASILY REACHABLE AND ANY BREAKS IN THE
CLOUD COVER COULD LEAD TO 4-6 DEGREES WARM...MUCH LIKE WHAT
HAPPENED IN EAST TEXAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

45

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 700 PM CDT THU SEP 10 2009/

UPDATE...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...
OVERALL THE TAFS LOOK FAIRLY PESSIMISTIC ESPECIALLY AFTER 06Z
TONIGHT. CURRENT RADAR TRENDS SHOW CONVECTION DECREASING ACROSS
SE TX BUT MAY HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON A LINE IN E TX MOVING W INTO
THE REGION. SUSPECT THAT THIS LINE WILL DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING
ANY TAF SITES. WITH THAT...LOOK FOR A SMALL WINDOW OF VFR
CONDITIONS BEFORE CIGS AND VSBY BEGIN TO DROP MUCH LIKE LAST
NIGHT. JUST ABOUT EVERY TAF SITE SHOULD SEE MVFR/LIFR CIGS/VSBY
DURING THE MORNING HOURS. NO MATTER WHICH MODEL YOU
CONSULT...LOOKS LIKE SHOWERS AND ISO TS FOR TOMORROW. THE COAST
WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA. PREFER TO BACK OFF ON A
PREVAILING TSRA FOR THE TAFS GIVEN SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW THE
DETAILS OF THE CONVECTION UNFOLD. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY STILL SHOWS
A DECENT SHORTWAVE COMING INTO S TX WHICH MAY HELP DEVELOP A
COASTAL LOW IN THE NW GULF TOMORROW MORNING PER NAM/GFS
SOLUTIONS. THE NAM MAY BE OVERDOING HOW STRONG THE COASTAL LOW
BECOMES BUT STILL CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF SOMETHING
DEVELOPING. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY AROUND THIS EVOLUTION IN THE
FORECAST FRI MORNING...WILL GO FOR VCTS MOST AREAS AND TEMPO TSRA
FOR THE MORNING HOURS FOR TAF SITES ALONG THE COAST AND THEN
AFTERNOON FOR HOUSTON SITES NORTHWARD. SHOULD A COASTAL LOW
DEVELOP...LIKELY SEE SHRA/TSRA FOR MOST OF THE DAY.

39

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 PM CDT THU SEP 10 2009/

DISCUSSION...
OVERALL FCST PHILOSOPHY HASN`T CHANGED WITH THE PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED
PLAYERS STILL IN PLACE: COASTAL TROF, UPPER TROF TO OUR W, DAYTIME
HEATING AND ABUNDANT GULF MOISTURE...MAKING FOR PERIODS OF
SHRA/TSTMS THRU AT LEAST SAT. COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY AT TIMES...BUT
NOT EXPECTING MANY PROBLEMS AND WILL MOSTLY BE WELCOME AND MUCH NEEDED
RAINFALL.

ANTICIPATE ONGOING PRECIP TO TAPER OFF TOWARD MID EVNG LIKE YDAY.
WILL PROBABLY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOP AGAIN AS WELL. ANOTHER
IMPRESSIVE SURGE OF MOISTURE SEEN NICELY ON SAT PIX OFF THE LOWER
TX COAST SHOULD CONTINUE HEADING NWD AND WILL PROBABLY CONTRIBUTE
TO THE NEXT FLARE UP OF PRECIP OFFSHORE LATER TONIGHT...GRADUALLY
MAKING IT INLAND ON FRI.

WILL LEAVE IN LIKELY POPS FRI NIGHT WITH UPPER TROF (NOW CLOSE TO
BIG BEND AREA) IN POSITION FURTHER E AND CLOSER TO THE REGION BY
THAT TIME. WILL MANY TIMES SEE RAINS CONCENTRATE CLOSER TO THE
CORE OF THESE FEATURES AT NIGHT.

BY SAT...BOTH GFS & ECMWF SHOW A SURFACE WAVE/LOW DEVELOPING ALONG
THE COASTAL TROF ACROSS THE MID/LOWER TX COAST AND TRACK IT N/NE
INTO (OR CLOSE TO DEPENDING ON MODEL OF CHOICE) SE TX. THIS WILL
BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS BEGIN
DIVERGING ON THE FINER DETAILS OF THE FCST BEYOND SAT AND DON`T
HAVE A GREAT HANDLE ON THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF THE SFC LOW. WILL IT
MERGE WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND BE PUSHED BACK TO TO THE TX
COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ECMWF SUGGESTS OR BE LOCATED IN THE TENN
VALLEY AS THE GFS SHOWS? NOT REAL SURE...BUT IT`LL AFFECT RAIN
RAIN CHANCES THRU THE MID AND LATER PARTS OF NEXT WEEK. BEST
COURSE OF ACTION AT THIS POINT IS TO LEAVE FCST AS IS (WITH CHC
POPS CONTINUING FOR PARTS OF THE REGION) AND HOPE FOR SOME BETTER
AGREEMENT IN THE DAYS TO COME. 47

MARINE...
STORMY WEATHER CONDITIONS LOOK LIKELY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. FROM
THERE...STILL HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE MARINE FORECAST FOR THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NAM SOLUTION LOOKS LIKE AN OUTLIER
NOT TO BE TRUSTED WHILE THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE MORE BELIEVABLE.
HOWEVER...THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS. FOR NOW KEPT
THE FORECAST GENERALLY ONSHORE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BOTH OF THE
MODELS THEN INDICATE A TREND TOWARD OFFSHORE WINDS EARLY NEXT
WEEK. 40

1245 PM AVIATION...
MVFR TO VFR WITH THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO BE THE MOST SUCCINCT WAY
TO PUT THE NEXT 24 TO 30 HOURS FOR THE AVIATION SITES. WOULD THINK
THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TONIGHT DUE TO
THE LOSS OF SOLAR HEATING WHICH THE MODELS BACK UP FOR THE MOST
PART. IF THE GFS MODEL IS ON TRACK...THEN THE STORM ACTIVITY
SHOULD RETURN TO THE COASTAL SITES AROUND SUNRISE AND THEN SPREAD
INLAND TO THE METRO HOUSTON TERMINALS BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z.

THERE ALSO LOOKS TO BE A GOOD CHANCE FOR MVFR FOG AND CEILINGS
MAINLY BETWEEN 06Z AND 14Z. ISOLATED IFR CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE
OUT OF THE QUESTION. 40

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 73 87 72 87 71 / 40 70 60 60 50
HOUSTON (IAH) 74 85 73 84 73 / 60 70 60 80 50
GALVESTON (GLS) 75 84 75 84 78 / 60 80 60 80 60

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

[ROLLTIDE]

00
FXUS64 KHGX 120849
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
349 AM CDT SAT SEP 12 2009

.DISCUSSION...
MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW PERSISTS ACROSS TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING. AT THE
SURFACE...DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE PERSISTS WITH A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG
THE COAST. IMPULSES ROTATING AROUND THE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW IN COMBINATION
WITH AN INCREASINGLY DIFFLUENT UPPER LEVEL WIND FLOW SUPPORT THE CONTINUATION
OF A HIGH POP FORECAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS TODAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
REMAINS POSSIBLE. AT THIS TIME...NO FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS ANTICIPATED
DUE TO THE LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE PAST FEW
DAYS AND HIGH UNCERTAINTY AS TO EXACTLY WHERE ANY FUTURE HEAVY RAINFALL
MIGHT SET UP. THINGS COULD CHANGE RAPIDLY...AND WE`LL CONTINUE TO CLOSELY
MONITOR THE SITUATION. MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING SOME PRETTY SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES IN THEIR FUTURE FORECASTS...BUT MOST OF THEM POINT TOWARD
FOCUSING THE BEST RAIN CHANCES OFF TO OUR NORTH AND EAST STARTING ON
SUNDAY AND ON INTO THE UPCOMING WEEK WHILE THE UPPER LOW OR A WEAK TROUGH
AXIS PERSISTS NEAR OUR AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO CALL FOR LOWER RAIN CHANCES
BEGINNING ON SUNDAY AND CONTINUING INTO THE UPCOMING WEEK. HOWEVER...CANNOT
TOTALLY RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY THAT PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS (EXACTLY
WHERE IS THE BIG QUESTION) COULD END UP NEEDING HIGHER POPS NEXT WEEK
WITH THE TROUGH AXIS LINGERING NEARBY. IF THE LOWER RAIN CHANCES AND
ASSOCIATED DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER MATERIALIZE...THE UPCOMING WEEK SHOULD
SEE INCREASING HIGH TEMPERATURES WITH INLAND READINGS POSSIBLY GETTING
BACK TOWARDS 90 BY THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. 42
&&

.MARINE...
THE WEEKEND FORECAST CALLS FOR ANOTHER ROUND OR TWO OF WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COMING AROUND A BROAD UPPER LOW OVER
NORTH(EAST)ERN TEXAS. SMALLER SCALE ATMOSPHERIC DISTURBANCES ROTATING
AROUND THIS LOW WILL GENERATE PERIODS OF MARITIME HEAVY RAIN AND
THUNDER. ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE AT
TIMES...ESPECIALLY WITHIN THESE NEAR SHORE SHOWERS AND STORMS...THE
GENERAL FLOW WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST. AVERAGE SEA HEIGHTS
WILL BE IN THE 2 TO 4 FOOT RANGE. IF AN ORGANIZED NEAR-COASTAL LOW
DOES FORM OUT OF A CURRENT COASTAL TROUGH...CONDITIONS COULD RAPIDLY
DETERIORATE. THUS...MARINERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON
THIS WEEKEND`S FUTURE FORECASTS WITHIN THIS UNCERTAIN SITUATION. 31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 83 71 85 70 86 / 70 60 50 30 30
HOUSTON (IAH) 83 73 85 72 86 / 70 60 50 30 30
GALVESTON (GLS) 83 77 85 77 86 / 70 50 50 30 30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

[ROLLTIDE]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 130443
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1143 PM CDT SAT SEP 12 2009

.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
NAM 12 INITIALIZED BEST THIS EVENING SO HAVE CONSTRUCTED THE TAFS
TOWARD THE NAM 12 SOLUTION. THE NAM HAS A SWATH OF RAIN OVER THE
WESTERN ZONES OVERNIGHT AND THE REDEVELOPS AN AREA OF RAIN OVER
THE EAST AND SOUTH ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT.
LOW CIGS ARE LIKELY AND AM EXPECTING IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING. 43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 803 PM CDT SAT SEP 12 2009/

UPDATE...
EVENING FORECAST UPDATE.

DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND REGIONAL RADARS SHOW BROAD UPPER LEVEL
LOW CIRCULATION OVER C TX TONIGHT. ONLY ISO SHOWERS REMAIN OVER
SE TX IF ANY WITH STRONGER ACTIVITY WEST OF THE REGION. BACKED
OFF POPS A LITTLE BIT GIVEN THE RELATIVELY DRY TREND WHICH MAY OR
MAY NOT CONTINUE. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE IF THE UPPER LOW MOVES
TO THE EAST LATER TONIGHT INTO SUN MORNING. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR
JET STREAKS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW TO ROTATE THROUGH AND
KICK OFF STRONGER CONVECTION. POPS AROUND 50 PERCENT LOOK
REASONABLE FOR NOW BUT MAY BUMP UP HIGHER SHOULD MORE NUMEROUS
ACTIVITY DEVELOP OUT WEST AND BEGIN TO MOVE INTO SE TX. OTHERWISE
THINK SE TX WILL SEE LIGHT SHOWERS WITH ONLY ISO THUNDERSTORMS.
THE REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD FOR NOW BUT HINGES ON THE
EVOLUTION OF THIS UPPER LOW. UPDATED FORECAST PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN
ISSUED.

39

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 619 PM CDT SAT SEP 12 2009/

DISCUSSION...
LARGE UPPER LOW REMAINS CENTERED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TX THIS AFTN
WHILE 1006 MB SFC LOW WAS LOCATED JUST OFF THE MIDDLE TX COAST.
A SFC COASTAL TROUGH REMAINS LOCATED ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AND
HAS PROVIDED THE FOCUS FOR THE HEAVY CONVECTION TODAY. THE
COMBINATION OF LIMITED INSTABILITY DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER
AND LACK OF A SFC FOCUS HAVE WORKED AGAINST DEVELOPMENT OF HEAVY
RAIN OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BECOME A
BIT MORE FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS. THE SFC LOW/COASTAL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT INLAND
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY...PROVIDING THE SFC
FOCUS THAT HAS BEEN LACKING RECENTLY. IN ADDITION UPPER FLOW IS
FORECAST TO BECOME INCREASINGLY DIFFLUENT ACROSS THE AREA. A
CONVERGENCE ZONE AT THE 850 MB LEVEL WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS
SE TX AS WELL. PWS WILL REMAIN AROUND OR JUST ABOVE 2 INCHES
AREAWIDE THROUGH SUNDAY. HAVE BLANKETED LIKELY POPS ACROSS MOST OF
SE TX TONIGHT/SUNDAY AND WILL MENTION LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
BEGINNING AFTER 06Z TONIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL AVERAGE 1/2
INCH WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES POSSIBLE. GIVEN THE
RELATIVELY LIGHT RAINFALL TOTALS SO FAR WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING
ANY KIND OF A WATCH FOR THE AREA. IN ADDITION...AS HINTED AT IN
SPC`S DAY 2 OUTLOOK THERE WILL BE A VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR FUNNEL
CLOUDS OR EVEN AN ISOLATED TORNADO SUNDAY NEAR THE SFC BOUNDARY.
WILL MENTION THIS IN THE HWOHGX.

SFC LOW WILL SWING EAST OF THE AREA BY MONDAY WITH WINDS IN THE
LOW LEVELS SHIFTING TO A WEST/NORTHWEST DIRECTION. HOWEVER...BOTH
THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW HIGH MOISTURE LEVELS (PWS 1.8-2.0 INCHES)
REMAINING OVER THE AREA WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPS ONLY IN THE UPPER
70S TO NEAR 80. EXPECT SCATTERED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AGAIN WITH
BEST COVERAGE OVER THE EASTERN ZONES. A FEW POCKETS OF SUNSHINE
POSSIBLE WITH THE HEATING AIDING IN THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. A GRADUAL DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED AFTER MONDAY AS
NORTHWEST FLOW FROM THE SFC THROUGH THE MID LEVELS FILTERS LOWER
PW AIR INTO THE AREA. THE 12Z GFS IS IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE
ECMWF ON THE HANDLING OF THE UPPER LOW...BUT STILL APPEARS A
LITTLE FAST MOVING IT OUT WHEN COMPARED WITH THE ENSEMBLE MEAN.
HAVE GONE MORE WITH THE MEAN WHICH SHOWS THE TROUGH AXIS EAST OF
THE AREA THURSDAY...WITH A SHARP CUTOFF OF MOISTURE/PRECIP AT THAT
POINT. THE ECMWF REMAINS A DAY OR TWO SLOWER THAN THIS. PWS ARE
FORECAST TO GRADUALLY DROP FROM 1.8-1.9 INCHES TUESDAY TO AROUND
1.4 INCHES BY THURSDAY. WILL TAPER DOWN POPS FROM HIGH CHANCE
LEVEL TUESDAY TO 20S AREA WIDE ON THURSDAY. FLAT UPPER RIDGING IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER SE TX BY NEXT WEEKEND. EXPECT TYPICAL
LATE SUMMER WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS...WITH ISOLATED DIURNAL
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL KEEP TEMPS BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN MAX TEMPS WILL RECOVER TO NORMAL
LEVELS BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 72 83 71 84 69 / 50 60 40 50 30
HOUSTON (IAH) 73 84 72 85 70 / 50 60 40 50 30
GALVESTON (GLS) 75 84 75 84 75 / 50 60 40 50 30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...39
AVIATION/MARINE...43

[ROLLTIDE]

00
FXUS64 KHGX 140902
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
402 AM CDT MON SEP 14 2009

.DISCUSSION...
EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGES AND GPS MET PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES CONFIRM THAT A DRIER AIRMASS HAS MOVED INTO MUCH OF SOUTHEAST
TEXAS. EXPECT THESE VALUES TO PERSIST TODAY WITH DEEPER MOISTURE LEVELS
CLOSER TO THE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW UP NORTH. WE COULD SEE SOME SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT TODAY FROM THE COMBINATION OF DAYTIME HEATING AND ANY IMPULSES
THAT ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER LOW AND MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA. LOW RAIN
CHANCES WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK AS
THE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW PERSISTS TO OUR NORTH. FOR THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEK...THE AIRMASS CONTINUES TO DRY OUT A BIT MORE AS THE PERSISTENT
LOW TO OUR NORTH FINALLY WEAKENS AND MOVES ON OUT TO THE EAST AND
NORTHEAST. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW NO SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN MOISTURE
LEVELS AFTER THE LOW MOVES ON OUT AS WINDS AT THE SURFACE REMAIN FROM
THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST. WILL CALL FOR VERY LOW MAINLY DAYTIME POPS
UNDER THIS PATTERN. THE LESS CLOUD COVER AND LESS RAIN COVERAGE SHOULD
ALLOW FOR AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK TO WARM UP SIMILAR TO
OR A LITTLE WARMER THAN WHAT MUCH OF THE AREA SAW ON SUNDAY. 42
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR 3 FOOT SEAS TO PERSIST THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY...OR WHILE A
CLOSED-OFF SURFACE LOW TRAVELS FROM GALVESTON ISLAND INLAND OVER THE
SABINE. WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IN ITS WAKE WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN UNDER 15 KNOTS...BUT AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS...SEAS AS HIGH AS 4
FEET CAN BE EXPECTED IN THIS SURFACE LOW`S WAKE. SEAS LOWER BACK
DOWN TO UNDER 2 FEET BY MID-WEEK AS TODAY`S WESTERLIES TURN OFFSHORE
(PER THE WATERS FALLING ON THE BACKSIDE OF A SLOW NE`WARD-MOVING
MID-UPPER BROAD LOW). THESE LIGHT NW-N WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
REMINDER OF THE WEEK AS WILL THOSE SUB-2 FT SEAS. 31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 84 68 88 69 88 / 30 20 20 20 20
HOUSTON (IAH) 86 70 88 70 88 / 30 20 30 20 20
GALVESTON (GLS) 86 74 86 75 86 / 30 20 20 20 20
&&

[ROLLTIDE]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 150945
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
436 AM CDT TUE SEP 15 2009

.DISCUSSION...
BROAD UPPER LOW OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS WITH SURFACE REFLECTION OVER
WEST CENTRAL LOUISIANA. CHANCE POPS OVER NE CWA AS ENERGY COMES
DOWN AROUND LOW`S BACKSIDE. LOW-MID LEVELS STILL RETAIN ENOUGH
MOISTURE...WITH THE EAST-WEST MOISTURE AXIS EXTENDING FROM GALVESTON
TO SAN ANTONIO. PWATS OF GT 1.8" NORTH OF THIS DELINEATING
LINE...UNDER 1.6" SOUTHWARD. MODEL X-SECTIONS KEEP DEEP ENOUGH
MOISTURE IN PLACE THROUGH THURSDAY TO SUPPORT SCT MID MORNING
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON SHOWERS. WITH MID 80F CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES
BRIEFLY BEING MET (PER THICKER NORTHERN CLOUD COVER)....IT WILL
STRICTLY BE A TIMING ISSUE ON HOW MUCH PRECIPITABLE COVERAGE/ACCUM
OUR NORTHEAST NEIGHBORS ACTUALLY RECEIVE THROUGH MID-WEEK. DUE TO
MORE CLEAR SKIES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
ZONES...HAVE STAYED ABOVE MOS MAX TEMP GUIDANCE BY A FEW DEGREES
IN THE COMING DAYS. WINDS WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH A GOOD PART
OF THE WEEK PER THE SLOW EXIT/EXPANSION OF THIS NE`ERN UPPER LOW.
DUE TO CLEARER SKIES AND LIGHT NORTHERLIES...WOULD EXPECT THAT A
DAILY SEA BREEZE WOULD DEVELOP. DEEP ENOUGH MOISTURE...WITH AMPLE
LL SHEAR...TO SPARK OFF MAINLY ISOLATED NEAR-COASTAL SHOWERS/STORM
DURING THE 17-23Z HOURS.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN UNDERGOES VERY LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH THE WORK
WEEK...PRETTY MUCH A CUT AND PASTE FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY.
ENSEMBLE DOESN`T WANT TO BUILD IN MUCH RIDGING...IN FACT WEAK
TROFFING REMAINS OVER THE LONE STAR THROUGH THE WEEKEND. GFS/EURO
SOLUTIONS LIFT A LARGE SCALE TROUGH OUT OF TEXAS LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...EVENTUALLY DRAGGING A WEAK FRONT THROUGH THE REGION
SOMETIME TUESDAY. MODELS ARE NOT ONLY SLUGGISH WITH THIS CURRENT
EXPANSION/EXIT OF NE UPPER LOW...BUT ALSO DRAG OUT THIS LATE
PERIOD EVOLUTION OF EASTERN TROFFING. PREDOMINANTLY A DRY
FROPA...INTERIOR MOISTURE LEVELS DO SIGNIFICANTLY DECREASE EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

ALL AND ALL...AS HEAD TOWARDS NEXT WEEK`S AUTUMNAL EQUINOX...CONFIDENCE
IS LOW WITH GUIDANCE AS WOULD BE EXPECTED DURING THESE SEASONAL
SHIFTS. WEEKEND FORECAST IS MAINLY DRY (PER BETTER ESTABLISHED
W-SW MID-UPPER LEVEL FLOW) AND WARM WHILE NOT BEING OVERLY OPPRESSIVE
IN THE HUMIDITY DEPARTMENT. EARLY WEEK FORECAST LOOKS MORE
COMFORTABLE...SIMILAR TEMPERATURE BEHAVIOR WITH SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS. THE TINGE OF FALL WILL BE IN THE AIR AS A DRIER AIR MASS
WORKS IT WAY SOUTHWARD OUT OF THE PINEY WOODS. 31

&&

.MARINE...
NO BIG FCST ISSUES WITH LIGHT-MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW AND BENIGN SEAS
PREVAILING FOR MOST OF THE WEEK. 47

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SE TX (ESP N OF I-10) SHOULD
BE SLOW TO RISE INTO VFR TERRITORY - PERHAPS NOT UNTIL AFTER LUNCH.
TOUGH CALL AS TO WHEN IT`LL OCCUR FOR THE HOUSTON TERMINALS
SWD...BUT THOSE WILL BE THE 1ST TO BURN OFF - PROBABLY MID MORNING
CLOSER TO THE COAST AND LATE MORNING FURTHER INLAND. NOT MANY
CHANGES EXPECTED TO ONGOING 6Z TAFS. MAY SEE SOME SHRA UP TOWARD UTS
ASSOCIATED WITH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE BUT CONFIDENCE ISN`T HIGH
ENOUGH TO MENTION. EXPECT A ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR/IFR CIGS AGAIN
TONIGHT CONSIDERING UPPER LOW NOT FCST TO MOVE MUCH. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 85 69 88 68 88 / 20 20 20 20 20
HOUSTON (IAH) 89 70 90 70 90 / 30 20 20 20 20
GALVESTON (GLS) 87 71 88 73 88 / 20 20 20 10 10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.

[ROLLTIDE]

FXUS64 KHGX 160451
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1151 PM CDT TUE SEP 15 2009

.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...
STILL EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS TO DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT OR WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS THE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE AKLATX DRIFTS SOUTHWESTWARD
BACK INTO E TX. FELT THAT SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS EXIST FOR
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AT THE INLAND SITES AND EARLY EVENING TOWARD
THE COAST.

40

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 820 PM CDT TUE SEP 15 2009/

DISCUSSION...
00Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN
LOUISIANA WHICH IS FURTHER SOUTHWEST THAN IT WAS AT 20Z. LOOKS
LIKE THE LOW IS DRIFTING SOUTHWEST TONIGHT. THE LOW WILL PROBABLY
MEANDER AIMLESSLY FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE POSITION OF THE LOW
WILL DICTATE HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT. AT THIS
TIME FEEL THE LOW WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO ALLOW CLOUDS TO REDEVELOP
AFTER MIDNIGHT. TEMPS SHOULD STABILIZE WITH THE INCREASED CLOUD
COVER AND REMAIN IN THE LOWER 70S FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT. TWEAKED
SKY GRIDS OTHERWISE NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE GRIDS. 43

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 646 PM CDT TUE SEP 15 2009/

DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
RATHER DIFFICULT CEILING FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
ESPECIALLY FOR THE FIRST 12 TO 18 HOURS. THE CURRENT 18Z MODEL
DATA AGREES WITH THE BREAKS IN THE CEILINGS CURRENTLY APPARENT IN
THE OBSERVATIONS AND THE SATELLITE DATA. AS THE LOW PRESSURE IN
THE AKLATX REGION BEGINS TO DRIFT A BIT TOWARD THIS AREA...THE
CEILINGS WILL RETURN. THE QUESTION IS HOW LOW WILL THEY GO?
DECIDED TO GO MORE WITH THE CURRENT MODEL DATA FORECAST AND NOT
BRING THE MVFR CEILINGS IN AS FAST AS EARLIER FORECASTED. STILL
FEEL THAT SOME IFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE NORTH OF THE BIG HOUSTON
AIRPORTS BETWEEN 08Z AND 15Z...MAINLY AT KCXO AND KUTS. HOWEVER...
THE FORECAST CONFIDENCE LEVEL FOR THESE CONDITIONS TO NOT DEVELOP
FURTHER SOUTH AND EARLIER IS NOT ALL THAT HIGH. WILL SEE HOW THE
00Z MODEL DATA CHANGES THINGS FOR THE 06Z AVIATION FORECAST.

40

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 71 85 70 84 70 / 10 20 20 20 20
HOUSTON (IAH) 72 86 71 85 71 / 20 20 20 20 20
GALVESTON (GLS) 75 86 74 85 74 / 20 20 20 20 20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...43
AVIATION/MARINE...40

[ROLLTIDE]

00
FXUS64 KHGX 170929
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
428 AM CDT THU SEP 17 2009

.DISCUSSION...
VERTICALLY-STACKED SURFACE AND UPPER LOW SLOWING RETROGRADING BACK
INTO NORTHEASTERN TEXAS THIS MORNING. ONLY CURRENT PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE ARE VERY LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS HOUSTON
COUNTY AND ALONG A FAR SOUTHERN SPIRAL BAND MOVING OUT OF OUR
MARINE WATERS AND INTO THE CENTRAL GULF. FEEL TODAY`S WEATHER
PATTERN WILL PAN OUT AS IN PREVIOUS DAYS...CLOSER TO TUESDAY`S
PATTERN OF CLOUDIER SKIES AND THE HIGHER CHANCE FOR LIGHT SHOWERS
OCCURRING ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEASTERN AND EASTERN CWA. 20 TO 30
CHANCE FOR SCATTERED -RA FROM OUTER BANDS COMING AROUND THIS TX-LA
BORDER REGION OF LOWER PRESSURE.

BUFR SOUNDINGS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INCREASED MID-LEVEL CLOUD
COVER ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF LOW WILL INHIBIT INSOLATION
ENOUGH TO KEEP NORTHERN COUNTY AFTERNOON TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S...MID 80S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN 2/3RDS OF THE FA. PWATS WILL
HOVER AROUND 1.7"- 1.9" AND...IF ENOUGH SUN MAKES IT TO SURFACE
EARLY IN THE DAY...THERE IS A GREATER CHANCE FOR LARGER PRECIP
BANDS AS CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE LOW-ISH
MID-UPPER 70S. FORECAST FOR LOWER POPS IS BASED ON THICKER CLOUD
COVER EARLY IN DAY AIDING IN BETTER STABILIZATION. CONFIDENCE IS
HIGH THAT MANY ALONG AND EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 45 CORRIDOR WILL
RECEIVE A SHOWER OR TWO THIS AFTERNOON...BUT NO MORE THAN 30%
AREAL COVERAGE FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION. ON FRIDAY...THE
7H STEERING FLOW AROUND LOW WILL HELP ADVECT IN A DRIER NW`ERN TX
AIR MASS. THUS...MORE HOURS OF SUN WILL PUSH MAX TEMPS UP INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 8OS (AS WAS CASE TODAY) WITH SIMILAR 20-30 POPS IN
ACCOUNTING FOR THE OCCASIONAL BAND COMING AROUND BROAD LOW
CENTERED SOMEWHERE OVER THE SABINE RIVER VALLEY.

PATTERN FINALLY UNDERGOES CHANGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A VERY
LARGE REGION OF LOWER HEIGHTS FORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE
LAST DAYS OF SUMMER ARE SHAPING UP TO BE MORE ACTIVE...WITH ENSEMBLE
ALL ADVERTISING AN EVOLVING DEEP CENTRAL PLAINS TROUGH. ALL IN FAIR
AGREEMENT THAT A GOOD AMOUNT OF COOLER AIR WILL DROP OUT OF THE
CANADIAN PLAINS WITH A DEEP UPPER LOW FORMING OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS BY TUESDAY. RECENT RUNS ARE MORE HESITANT IN PUSHING AN OK-BASED
MCS...OR AN EARLY AUTUMN SEASON COLD FROPA...ACROSS THE RED RIVER
VALLEY AND THROUGH EAST TEXAS. EURO/GFS HANG UP THE SYSTEM OVER THE TX
PANHANDLE GOING THROUGH MID-WEEK...WHILE THE MORE AGGRESSIVE CANADIAN
DIGS AN UPPER LOW INTO CENTRAL TX LATE TUESDAY. ATTM...WOULD TEND
TO BELIEVE THAT THE MODELS ARE SUFFERING FROM THAT SEASONAL SHIFT
SYNDROME GOING INTO TUESDAY`S EQUINOX. IF THIS TROUGH DOES EVOLVE AS
BEING PROGGED...THAN IT WOULD SEEM THAT THE U.S. SE RIDGE WOULD
GIVE WAY AND THE REGION WILL EXPERIENCE HIGHER CHANCE POPS DURING
THE FIRST FULL DAY OF AUTUMN. 31

&&

.MARINE...
NO BIG FCST ISSUES. LIGHT/MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW AND LOW SEAS FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. 47

&&

.AVIATION...
UPPER LOW SPINNING AROUND NEAR TYLER SHOULD VERY SLOWLY DRIFT ESE
TODAY. ASSOCIATED MVFR/IFR CIGS CREEPING SWD INTO NRN PARTS OF SE TX
AND SHOULD MAKE IT CLOSE TO IAH LATER THIS MORNING. CIGS SHOULD HOLD
IN MVFR TERRITORY FOR MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE DAY FOR TERMINALS CXO
NWD. MAY SEE SOME BANDING SHRA TODAY AS WELL...BUT TIMING/LOCATION/
SIGNIFICANCE IS UNCERTAIN SO WILL JUST MAINTAIN VCSH`S FOR CLL/UTS.
MORE SIG PRECIP HAS BEEN MOSTLY CONFINED N AND E OF THE UPPER LOW
THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. ANTICIPATE LOW CIGS AGAIN TONIGHT WITH IFR
CONDITIONS A DECENT BET FROM CXO NWD. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 82 69 86 68 90 / 20 20 30 10 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 85 70 87 70 90 / 20 20 20 10 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 85 74 87 75 88 / 20 20 20 10 10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

[ROLLTIDE]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 182038
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
338 PM CDT FRI SEP 18 2009

.DISCUSSION...
SFC LOW DRIFTING EAST NEAR KIER WITH A FEW SPRINKLES WRAPPING
AROUND AND MOVING INTO THE KPSN-KJSO-KDKR AREA. ABUNDANT CLOUDS
SPREAD OUT ACROSS THE AREA AND WILL HAVE THIS BLANKET OF CLOUDS
THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE NIGHT. IN ADDITION SOME FOG POSSIBLE
TONIGHT ESPECIALLY BENEATH BINOVC. SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE DRY AND
WARMER BEFORE A S/W OVER OK/AR SWINGS BY ON SUNDAY. SOUNDINGS
SHOULD BE CAPPED FOR THE MOST PART BUT INCREASE IN MOISTURE MIGHT
BE ENOUGH COMBINED WITH HEATING FOR A FEW SHOWERS SUNDAY BUT
CHANCES <20. MONDAY RETURN FLOW GETS UNDERWAY AND AGAIN SOME
POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS BUT CAP SHOULD WIN OUT AND TEMPERATURES
JUMP UP INTO THE 90S. A POTENT UPPER LOW DROPS SOUTH AND A FRONT
SHOULD SWEEP THROUGH SETX AND STALL OVER THE GULF...(NOT SURE YET
HOW FAR OFFSHORE) BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA. CONFIDENCE
INCREASING FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT THAT THE AREA WILL GET A
GOOD SWATH OF RAIN THROUGH THE AREA. EVEN SOME STRONG STORMS
POSSIBLE GIVEN THE PROFILES. FORECAST FOR WED AND THU NOT VERY
CONFIDENT ON THESE DAYS DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF HOW FAR OFFSHORE
THE FRONT GETS OR IF IT BACKS UP. GFS INDICATING A LITTLE SLOWER
AND MORE SW TRACK TO THE LOW THAN ECMWF AND AFTER THIS RECENT
UPPER LOWS MOVEMENT AND INCLINED TO FAVOR THE SLOWER AND MORE
WESTERLY COURSE. IN EITHER CASE THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF FALL SHOULD
AT LEAST FEEL A LITTLE MORE LIKE FALL WITH AFTERNOON TEMPS IN THE
70S/80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S.

45
&&
.MARINE...
LIGHT TO MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW WITH LOW SEAS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
COMING WEEKEND. HOWEVER...A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED LATE
SUNDAY. A FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE WATERS LATE TUESDAY
USHERING A MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW. WAVE HEIGHTS SHOULD PICK UP TO
AROUND 4 FT 20-60 NM REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT TO WEDNESDAY.
37

&&

.AVIATION...
CONSIDERABLE LOW CLOUDS SC/CU/TCU (CONGESTED CU) NOW OVER MUCH OF
CWFA. A FEW PASSING VERY LIGHT SHRA MOVED ACROSS WEST CENTRAL
PORTIONS AROUND MID DAY. UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY MOVE FARTHER EAST BY SATURDAY. WIND
DIRECTION EXPECTED TO REMAIN FROM NW TO N THROUGH SATURDAY BUT WITH
PRESSURE GRADIENT BECOMING WEAKER WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER. PATCHY
LIGHT FOR ANTICIPATED MAINLY FOR CXO ...UTS AND LBX LATE TONIGHT AND
INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. LOW CLOUDS BECOMING OVERCAST AND
POSSIBLY LOWERING BELOW 1000 FT CXO AND UTS LATE TONIGHT.
37


&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 69 87 69 91 71 / 10 10 10 10 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 70 89 71 91 73 / 10 10 10 20 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 75 87 77 87 78 / 10 10 10 10 10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...45

[ROLLTIDE]

00
FXUS64 KHGX 191730
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1230 PM CDT SAT SEP 19 2009

.AVIATION...

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS CEILINGS LIFT ABOVE
3000 FEET. MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND FOG POSSIBLE AGAIN FROM LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TOMORROW IS EXPECTED
TO BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF S TO SE WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS
PRESSURES BEGIN TO FALL ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AREA. 42
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1031 AM CDT SAT SEP 19 2009/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER LOW LOCATED OVER NORTHERN LOUISIANA THIS MORNING. GENERAL
UPPER TROUGHING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MORNING ANALYSIS SHOWS MODERATE AMOUNTS
OF MOISTURE IN PLACE WITH PWS OF 1.5-1.7 INCHES WITH WEAKLY
DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. AN EXTENSIVE SHIELD OF CLOUDS REMAINS IN
PLACE OVER SE TX. WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL SEE SOME ISOLATED
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE AREA. THIS IS WELL HANDLED IN THE
EXISTING FORECAST AND WILL NOT MAKE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.

35

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 AM CDT SAT SEP 19 2009/

DISCUSSION...
FAIRLY UNEVENTFUL WX EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND...JUST VARIABLE
MID/HIGH CLOUDINESS AND PERHAPS SOME ISOLATED SHRA/TSTMS AS WEAK
UPPER IMPULSES RIDE OVERHEAD IN THE WSW FLOW ALOFT. ONSHORE FLOW
RESUMES BY LATE SUNDAY AS PRESSURES FALL TO THE NW.

FCST BEYOND MONDAY STILL QUITE UNCERTAIN...EVEN MORE SO THAN THIS
TIME YDAY. MODELS DIG THE NEXT TROF & CUTOFF LOW INTO THE PLAINS
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE 00Z GFS TAKES IT SWWD INTO NV ON WED...
WHEREAS ECMWF AND CANADIAN KEEP IT SOME 900 MILES EAST IN THE
OK/KS/TX PANHANDLE. EVENTUAL PLACEMENT WILL OBVIOUSLY HAVE
IMPORTANT RAMIFICATIONS REGARDING SE TX WX. IF GFS SOLN ENDS UP
BEING CORRECT...WE MAY NOT EVEN SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF A FROPA OR
DRIER AIRMASS MOVE IN...WHILE THE REVERSE WOULD BE TRUE WITH THE
CANADIAN/ECMWF. SINCE GFS SEEMS TO BE THE CURRENT OUTLIER...AND
CANADIAN/ECMWF ARE MORE SIMILAR TO EARLIER MODEL CONSENSUS SOLNS
FEEL IT IS BEST TO HOLD TIGHT WITH THE ONGOING FCST AT THIS TIME
AND SEE WHAT THE NEXT COUPLE SUITE OF MODELS HAVE TO SAY BEFORE
MAKING ANY BIG CHANGES. WE DID SLOW THE FROPA DOWN ABOUT 6-12
HOURS...NOW LATE TUE AND ADJUSTED APPROPRIATE WX GRIDS...BUT THAT`S
ABOUT THE MOST SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE FCST IN THE
MEDIUM/LONG RANGE FOR THE TIME BEING. 47

MARINE...
THIS LIGHT TO MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW OF LATE WILL BE COMING TO AN
END SUN NIGHT AS THE SFC LOW MOVES OFF TO THE NE. THIS PATTERN TO
BRING LIGHT TO MODERATE S/SE WINDS AREAWIDE MON. HOWEVER THE NEXT
PART OF THIS FCST IS LOOKS TO BE COMING INTO QUESTION. PREVIOUSLY
WHERE ALL THE PROGS HAD A FRONT MOVING INTO THE COASTAL WATERS...
THERE IS NOW A DISSENTING VOICE (GFS) WHICH DELAYS FROPA. BUT NOT
GOING TO CHANGE THE GOING FCST ATTM DESPITE HAVING SAID ALL THAT.
AND SO THE FRONT ON TUES COULD BRING OFFSHORE WIND SPEEDS TO JUST
BELOW SCEC CRITERIA SHOULD MODELS PAN OUT. 41

AVIATION...
ABUNDANT MID/HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE WSW MAKING IT HARD TO
SEE THE SPREAD/PATTERN OF LOW CLOUDS FROM SATELLITE THIS MORNING.
BUT HARD TO ARGUE WITH THE IDEA OF SOME BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS FOR
THE EARLY TO MID MORNING HRS TODAY. BUT FOR REST OF THE DAY...THE
EXPECTED UPPER FLOW DOES ALLOW FOR THE IDEA OF ISO SHRA AS EMBED-
DED S/WS MOVE ACROSS. PERHAPS SLIGHTLY MORE LOW CLOUDS/FG TONIGHT
WITH WINDS LIKELY MORE CALM. 41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 88 69 92 73 92 / 20 10 10 10 30
HOUSTON (IAH) 89 71 91 74 91 / 20 10 20 20 30
GALVESTON (GLS) 87 77 87 78 87 / 20 10 20 20 20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...35
AVIATION/MARINE...42

[ROLLTIDE]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 202025
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
325 PM CDT SUN SEP 20 2009

.DISCUSSION...
AS NOTED EARLIER...MOISTURE HAS INCREASED ACROSS SE TX AND THERE
ARE A FEW ISO THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN KLBX AND KBYY ALONG THE
COAST. ISO THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING BUT LIKELY BE CONFINED TO COASTAL AREAS.
MOISTURE WITH PRECIP WATER ABOVE 2 INCHES WILL LIKELY REMAIN OVER
SE TX THROUGH TUE. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR BETTER COVERAGE AND MORE
SCATTERED ACTIVITY ON MONDAY. THE FORECAST WILL STICK WITH 30/40
POPS FOR SE TX AND SEE NO NEED TO CHANGE THAT.

UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE C PLAINS WITH
A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS TX. THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE THAT
WILL PROVE CHALLENGING TO FORECAST IS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST AND W CANADA. FORECAST MODELS ARE
CONSISTENT WITH BRINGING THIS TROUGH INTO THE C PLAINS ON TUE. A
COLD FRONT WITH THIS TROUGH WILL ALSO PUSH INTO SE TX AND ALLOW
FOR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. POST FRONTAL AIRMASS WILL
BE SHALLOW FOR WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE FRONT WILL LIKELY
SUPPORT ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS GIVEN DEEP MOISTURE AND ELEVATED
INSTABILITY. MODELS REALLY HIT ON A WIDESPREAD PRECIP EVENT SO 60
POPS MAYBE EVEN 70 POPS WILL BE NEEDED TUE. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
BE THE MAIN THREAT AND SUSPECT THAT THERE IS A CHANCE SOME CELLS
COULD TRAIN ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OR OVER THE TOP OF THE
COOLER AIRMASS. THE 850MB FRONT DOES LAG FARTHER NORTH OF THE
AREA AND WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL WINDS SHOULD SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL
OF STORMS RE-GENERATING OVER SE TX.

AFTER TUESDAY...ALL FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOST. THE GFS
CONTINUES ITS TREND TO RETROGRADE THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE PLAINS
BACK TO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THE GFS ENSEMBLE HAD NOT BEEN IN
SUPPORT OF THIS BUT ARE COMING AROUND TO THIS IDEA. THE ECMWF IS
CONTENT TO STILL KEEP THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE PLAINS WED THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. GIVEN A STRONG RIDGE THAT WILL DEVELOP OVER
THE PAC NW...DOUBT THAT THE LOW WILL RETROGRADE AS MUCH AS THE
GFS THINKS. WITH THAT IN MIND...THE FORECAST HAS BEEN TRENDED
SOMEWHAT TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION KEEPING TEMPS COOLER THAN THE GFS
AND KEEPING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES GOING THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING A STRONGER COLD FRONT IN TO
THE REGION BY THE END OF THE COMING WEEK BUT THE ECMWF IS FASTER.
IF THE ECMWF IS MORE RIGHT...COULD SEE DRIER CONDITIONS OVER THE
WEEKEND AND WILL KEEP 20 POPS GOING WHICH IS QUITE A BIT LOWER
THAN WHAT THE GFS SUGGESTS.

39

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS ARE IN THE PROCESS OF COMING AROUND TO THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST IN RESPONSE TO DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE IN THE EASTERN
COLORADO AREA. THE TIGHTENING GRADIENT SHOULD BRING COASTAL AREA
WINDS UP INTO A 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE ON MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT
BEGINS ITS SLOW APPROACH TOWARD THE COAST. THE AREA WILL SEE
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES BEGINNING ON TUESDAY AS THE FRONT WORKS
ITS WAY THROUGH SOUTHEAST TEXAS...AND THE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO
SLOWLY MOVE OFF THE COAST LATE TUESDAY OR EARLY WEDNESDAY. NORTH
TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL THEN CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK WITH SPEEDS POSSIBLY APPROACHING CAUTION LEVELS ACROSS THE
OFFSHORE WATERS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. WEAKER NORTHEAST WINDS
ARE ANTICIPATED AT THE END OF THE WEEK. 42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 73 92 73 81 65 / 10 40 30 60 30
HOUSTON (IAH) 74 92 74 83 68 / 10 40 20 60 40
GALVESTON (GLS) 79 88 79 84 73 / 10 30 20 50 50

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...39
AVIATION/MARINE...42

[ROLLTIDE]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 211735
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1235 PM CDT MON SEP 21 2009

.AVIATION...
VFR THIS AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP CB IN AREA TAFS FOR LATE IN THE DAY AND
CANNOT RULE OUT TSRA DEVELOPMENT DURING PEAK HEATING. CONDITIONS BEGIN
TO DETERIORATE VERY LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING AS MOISTURE
LEVELS INCREASE AND SHRA/TSRA DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING
COLD FRONT. ANTICIPATE MVFR CEILINGS TO DEVELOP PROBABLY BEFORE SUNRISE
AND PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE DAY TOMORROW. SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED FROM AROUND
MID MORNING THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT MAKES PROGRESS TOWARD
THE COAST. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT. 42
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1046 AM CDT MON SEP 21 2009/

UPDATE...
MORNING FORECAST UPDATE.

DISCUSSION...
OVERALL THE FORECAST IS LOOKING ON TRACK. WEAK SHOWERS ARE
PUSHING OUT OF THE AREA AS A VORT MAX EXITS. STILL QUITE A BIT OF
MOISTURE OVER SE TX SO WILL KEEP 30 POPS FOR TODAY. EXPECT CLOUD
COVER TO THIN SOME SO WILL GO AHEAD AND KEEP MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW
90S ACROSS THE AREA. SKY GRIDS WERE TWEAKED TO REFLECT ONGOING
TRENDS AND SOME LIFTING OF CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON. FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STILL EXPECTED TO WORK INTO SE TX TOMORROW SO RAIN
CHANCES LOOK IN TACT. UPDATED FORECAST PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN ISUED.

39

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 AM CDT MON SEP 21 2009/

DISCUSSION...
WEAK S/W CURRENTLY MOVING OVERHEAD BUT RETURNS SHOWING ON RADAR
APPEAR TO BE MOSTLY VIRGA. LLVL MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
TODAY AS ONSHORE WINDS HAVE RESUMED. ANOTHER WEAK IMPULSE NOTED ON
W/V IMAGERY OVER CNTRL MEXICO MOVING THIS WAY...AND COMBINED WITH
DAYTIME HEATING AND CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S POSSIBLY
PRODUCE SOME SCT SHRA/TSTMS LATER TODAY.

STILL ANTICIPATING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO MOVE INTO NRN PARTS OF SE
TX MIDDAY TUES AS H5 LOW DROPS SWD INTO THE PLAINS. ANTICIPATE
PRECIP TO BECOME WIDESPREAD AS LARGE SCALE LIFT INCREASES. HIGH
MOISTURE LEVELS (PW`S >2.2") ALONG WITH DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AND A
SFC FOCUS MAY BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE POCKETS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WHERE
TRAINING OCCURS. STILL QUESTIONABLE AS TO WHERE FRONT WHERE END
UP STALLING. THOUGH THE GFS & ECMWF SEEM TO STALL THE BOUNDARY
SOMEWHERE ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF THE HWY 59 CORRIDOR...THE NAM12
TAKES IT A WAYS OFF THE COAST (LOOKING AT DEWPOINTS). IT MIGHT
HAVE A SLIGHTLY BETTER HANDLE ON THE SMALLER DETAILS SINCE IT
TYPICALLY DOES BETTER WITH THE SHALLOW FRONTS/AIRMASSES BUT WILL JUST
HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE. REGARDLESS...REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK
LOOKS FAIRLY WET WITH CONTINUED ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE FRONT
ALONG AND A SW FLOW ALOFT. FUTURE SHIFTS WILL STILL NEED TO WATCH
THE THREAT OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS WITH SFC & H85 FRONTS REMAINING
A FOCUS. EXTENDED THE HIGHER CHC POPS INTO FRI UNTIL THE LOW IN
THE PLAINS EVENTUALLY KICKS OUT AND WE GET INTO A MORE W OR NW
FLOW ALOFT. 47

MARINE...
LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS HAVE RETURNED AREAWIDE THIS MORNING
TO OUR COASTAL WATERS...PERHAPS A BIT STRONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY FCST
AS PER CURRENT OBS. HOWEVER STILL THINKING THAT WE WILL LIKELY STAY
UNDER SCEC CRITERIA AS WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SFC ONLY AROUND 15 KTS.
STILL LOOKING FOR A COLD FRONT TO PUSH ACROSS SE TX LATE TUES...BUT
IT IS ALSO LOOKING MORE LIKELY THAT THIS BOUNDARY IS NOT GOING MAKE
IT INTO THE OFFSHORE WATERS. UPPER LOW PROGGED TO SLOW DOWN ITS EWD
MOTION BUT THE SFC HIGH BUILDING DOWN FROM THE PLAINS SHOULD GIVE A
MORE GENERAL E/NELY SFC FLOW ACROSS THE MARINE CWA BY MID WEEK. THE
PROXIMITY OF THE STALLED FRONT ALONG/NEAR THE COAST WILL HELP PROD-
UCE HIGHER RAIN CHANCES FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. LONG RANGE
GUIDANCE INDICATING THAT WE MAY NOT GET THE RETURN OF ONSHORE WINDS
UNTIL MAYBE THE START OF NEXT WEEK. 41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 92 75 81 65 79 / 30 20 70 50 50
HOUSTON (IAH) 92 75 84 68 79 / 30 20 70 60 50
GALVESTON (GLS) 88 79 86 73 81 / 30 20 70 60 60

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

[jess]

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
319 PM CDT MON SEP 21 2009

GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375-TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-
227-235>238-222030-
AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-BRAZOS-BURLESON-CHAMBERS-COLORADO-FORT BEND-
GALVESTON-GALVESTON BAY-GRIMES-HARRIS-HOUSTON-JACKSON-LIBERTY-
MADISON-MATAGORDA-MATAGORDA BAY-MONTGOMERY-POLK-SAN JACINTO-
TRINITY-WALKER-WALLER-WASHINGTON-
WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM-WHARTON-
319 PM CDT MON SEP 21 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATE TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE REGION. A LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY PUSH INTO THE REGION TOWARDS SUNRISE.
THE MAIN THREAT FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY
RAINFALL. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM SOME OF THE STRONGER
OR SLOWER MOVING STORMS. SOME AREAS COULD SEE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
1 INCH OR MORE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH FIVE...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS
TUESDAY BRINGING A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE REGION. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE
HIGHWAY 59 CORRIDOR AND 30 MILES OFFSHORE ON WEDNESDAY.
OVERRUNNING MOISTURE AND A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
WILL CONTINUE MOVING OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS THROUGH FRIDAY
TRIGGERING PERIODS OF RAINFALL. THERE APPEARS TO BE AN INCREASING
THREAT FOR SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...MAINLY WHERE STRONGER
STORMS TRAIN ACROSS THE SAME AREAS. ALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL QUITE
A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST...RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
BETWEEN 1 AND 3 INCHES SHOULD BE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH
LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.

.DAYS SIX AND SEVEN...SATURDAY AND SUNDAY

DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SO THE HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT SHOULD
COME TO AN END.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TUESDAY.

[jess]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 220948
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
448 AM CDT TUE SEP 22 2009

.DISCUSSION...
QUITE A BIT OF CONVECTION MOVING INTO THE NWRN ZONES THIS MORNING
AS ACTIVITY OVER THE GULF BECOMES A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD/ORGANIZED.
SO FAR THE PREVIOUS PROGS OF WETTER DAYS ARE COMING TO PASS GIVEN
THE ONGOING ACTIVITY. THE STORMS COMING IN FROM THE NNW APPEAR TO
BE WEAKENING BUT THEIR OUTFLOWS ARE REMAINING IN MOTION (STEADILY
S/SEWD). ATTM NOT SURE HOW MUCH FURTHER SOUTH THEY WILL GO BEFORE
PULLING UP STATIONARY...AS THIS WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT LATER TODAY. AS PER SATELLITE WV IMAGERY/MODELS THERE
IS ANOTHER S/W OF NOTE APPROACHING FROM THE SW. THIS FEATURE THEN
COMBINED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED OUTFLOWS AND/OR THE FRONT ITSELF
TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD/ORGANIZED PCPN ACROSS MOST OF SE TX THROUGH
TONIGHT. AS EVIDENT BY THE ACTIVITY YESTERDAY...LOCALLY HVY RAINS
ARE A GOOD POSSIBILITY GIVEN THE ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. THE
STRONG DYNAMICS/BOUNDARY(IES) SHOULD ADD TO THE THREAT TODAY/THIS
EVENING. ATTM NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE WITH REGARDS TO WHERE THE SFC
BOUNDARIES WILL PARK FOR AN FFA.

OUR ELEVATED RAIN CHCS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH THE COLD
FRONT REMNANTS LINGERING OVER THE AREA AND THE POSSIBILITY OF ADD-
ITIONAL S/W ACTIVITY FROM THE WSW. THIS PATTERN TO REMAIN LARGELY
IN PLACE GIVEN THE VERY SLOW EWD MOTION OF THE UPPER LOW OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. 41

&&