SE Texas Weather

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[ROLLTIDE]

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[jess]

I'd post the National Weather Service forecast, but it doesn't do justice to the developing low. The next few days will be interesting. We're in for some sloppy weather, which we really don't need, but it does make for interesting weather.

Meanwhile, my yard is dry enough, so it's back to the final cut of the season, since I've been out of commission for the last few weeks.

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[ROLLTIDE]

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[MandyM]

from nws site:

Special Weather Statement

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
329 PM CST TUE DEC 1 2009

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-020930-
HOUSTON-TRINITY-MADISON-WALKER-SAN JACINTO-POLK-BURLESON-BRAZOS-
WASHINGTON-GRIMES-MONTGOMERY-LIBERTY-COLORADO-AUSTIN-WALLER-
HARRIS-CHAMBERS-WHARTON-FORT BEND-JACKSON-MATAGORDA-BRAZORIA-
GALVESTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CROCKETT...TRINITY...GROVETON...
MADISONVILLE...HUNTSVILLE...SHEPHERD...COLDSPRING. ..LIVINGSTON...
CORRIGAN...ONALASKA...CALDWELL...LAKE SOMERVILLE...
COLLEGE STATION...BRYAN...BRENHAM...NAVASOTA...THE WOODLANDS...
CONROE...WILLIS...LIBERTY...CLEVELAND...DAYTON...C OLUMBUS...
EAGLE LAKE...WEIMAR...SEALY...BELLVILLE...HEMPSTEAD...
PRAIRIE VIEW...BROOKSHIRE...HOUSTON...PASADENA...KATY...TO MBALL...
HUMBLE...WINNIE...MONT BELVIEU...ANAHUAC...EL CAMPO...WHARTON...
PIERCE...SUGAR LAND...MISSOURI CITY...RICHMOND...ROSENBERG...
EDNA...BAY CITY...PALACIOS...PEARLAND...LAKE JACKSON...ALVIN...
ANGLETON...FREEPORT...LEAGUE CITY...TEXAS CITY...FRIENDSWOOD...
GALVESTON
329 PM CST TUE DEC 1 2009

...POSSIBLE WINTER WEATHER EVENT ON FRIDAY FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS TEXAS AND
INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS ON FRIDAY. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL ALSO FILTER
INTO THE REGION DURING THE DAY AS THIS DISTURBANCE MOVES OVER THE
AREA. STRONG LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE DISTURBANCE WILL COMBINE
WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE AND COLD AIR SO THAT WINTER PRECIPITATION
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.
PRECIPITATION WILL POSSIBLY START AS RAIN BUT CHANGE TO SNOW
DURING THE DAY AS TEMPERATURES FALL. THIS SCENARIO REMAINS RATHER
UNCERTAIN SINCE THERE IS STILL SOME QUESTION AS TO WHEN THE
DISTURBANCE MOVES OVER THE REGION AND HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL BE
AVAILABLE FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION. FORECASTERS WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR FORECAST DATA AND MAKE CHANGES AS NECESSARY. RESIDENTS OF
SOUTHEAST TEXAS ARE ENCOURAGED TO MONITOR THE FORECAST AND LOOK
FOR UPDATES CONCERNING THE WINTER WEATHER THREAT.

$$

39

[Stormlover]

here you go southeast texas...not too far away from snowfall on this map

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[jess]

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
601 AM CST THU DEC 3 2009

.DISCUSSION...
QUIET DAY ON TAP TODAY AS WE REMAIN IN BETWEEN WX SYSTEMS. AND AS
IT HAS BEEN THESE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS...THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE UP-
COMING FCST WILL BE THE POSSIBLE WINTER WX EVENT FRI. MODELS (THE
GFS IN PARTICULAR) HAVE BEEN VERY CONSISTENT/PERSISTENT WITH SNOW
IN THE FCSTS FOR A LARGE PART OF THE STATE IN ITS RUNS SINCE MON.
ON THE FLIP SIDE...THE ECMWF/CANADIAN HAVE ALSO REMAINED VERY CON-
SISTENT/PERSISTENT WITH LITTLE/NO PCPN WITH THIS NEXT UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM WITH THE BULK OF THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE STAYING OFFSHORE.

BUT WILL BE KEEPING WITH THE PREVIOUS FCSTS AND STAY WITH THE GFS
WITH THIS NEXT PACKAGE. AND HAVING SAID THAT THESE LATEST RUNS DO
NOT OFFER MUCH CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS RUNS (SAVE FOR MAYBE THINGS
RUNNING JUST A TOUCH FASTER). PROGGED DYNAMICS WITH THE SHORTWAVE
REMAIN IMPRESSIVE AS WELL AS THE VERY COLD TEMPS SURGING SWD FROM
NRN PLAINS. THE MAIN CONCERNS REMAIN THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AVAIL-
ABLE. BUT ERRING ON THE SIDE OF CAUTION COULD GIVE US SOME DECENT
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS (UP TO 3" FOR SOME NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA) ON
FRI. AS SUCH HAVE GONE WITH A WINTER WEATHER WATCH ACROSS THE NRN
HALF OF THE CWA FOR THIS TIMEFRAME.

HOWEVER PROGGED SOUNDINGS ALSO HINTING THAT THE DEEP COLD AIRMASS
WILL PROBABLY MOVE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH FOR MAYBE SNOW FALL (BUT VERY
LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATIONS) ON OUR BEACHES...BEFORE THE SHORTWAVE
FINALLY MOVES OUT OVERNIGHT FRI/EARLY SAT. ADDITIONAL INFO CAN BE
FOUND ON OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK (HWO) AND THE WINTER STORM
WATCH (WSW).

FOR THE REST OF THE FCST...ANOTHER SHOT OF RAIN BY SUN AS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. AND OVERALL WILL ALSO KEEP THE
TEMPS LOWER THAN GUIDANCE BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS. 41

[kixette]

I am really hoping for NO snow on our beach. We've had enough with the high tides the last few weeks (with the most recent being day before yesterday).

[Stormlover]

I am really hoping for NO snow on our beach. We've had enough with the high tides the last few weeks (with the most recent being day before yesterday).

Snow won't hurt the beach though.

[jess]

DISCUSSION...
DEFYING ALL LOGIC...IT APPEARS THAT MOTHER NATURE HAS THROWN
SOUTHEAST TEXAS A BIT OF A CURVE BALL OR SHOULD WE SAY A SNOW
BALL? MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT THAT MOISTURE LEVELS
WILL BE SUFFICIENTLY DEEP AND THERMAL PROFILES SUFFICIENTLY COLD
TO GIVE THE AREA SNOW. ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE IS MAXIMIZED DURING THE
LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON AND PRECIPITATION SHOULD BECOME
WIDESPREAD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW PW VALUES NEAR 0.8 INCHES
WHICH IS ROBUST FOR THIS TYPE OF AIR MASS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO
REVEAL A SATURATED PROFILE BELOW 0C FROM ABOUT 975MB AND UP. ONLY
THE LOWEST 1000 FEET OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING AND
THIS WILL LIKELY COOL WITH EVAPORATIVE EFFECTS. THE GROUND IS WARM
SO AM EXPECTING SOME MELTING BEFORE SNOW BEGINS TO ACCUMULATE ON
GRASSY AND ELEVATED SURFACES. SOUTHEAST TEXAS WILL LIE IN A RIGHT
REAR QUAD WHICH WILL ASSIST IN LIFT. ALL THE INGREDIENTS ARE IN
PLACE SO WHAT CAN GO WRONG? PLENTY!! IT IS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE
WHEN THE PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW AND IF THE PERIOD
OF SNOW IS SHORTER THAN CURRENTLY DIAGNOSED...AMOUNTS WILL BE
LOWER. WARMING FROM THE GULF COULD AFFECT THE THERMAL PROFILE AS
WELL ALTHO NOT LIKELY WITH SURFACE WINDS OUT OF THE NORTH. AT THIS
TIME...IT APPEARS THAT 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW WILL FALL ACROSS
AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF US HIGHWAY 59 WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER TOTALS
NORTHWEST OF THIS CORRIDOR. A WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR THE ENTIRE CWA FOR FRIDAY. NORTH WINDS OF 15 MPH COMBINED WITH
THE FALLING TEMPS WILL PRODUCE WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE MID 20S.
TEMPERATURES WILL PLUNGE FRIDAY NIGHT AS SKIES CLEAR. IF SNOW IS
ON THE GROUND...MIN TEMPS SAT AM WILL FALL INTO THE LOWER 20S. ANY
WET SPOTS WILL FREEZE FRI NITE SO MOTORISTS WILL NEED TO BE VERY
CAREFUL IF DRIVING ESPECIALLY ON THE ELEVATED BRIDGES. MAX TEMPS
ON SATURDAY ARE TRICKY TOO. IF SNOW IS ON THE GROUND TO START THE
DAY...MAX TEMPS WILL NEVER REACH THE LOWER 50S. BASICALLY THE TEMP
FORECAST IS A WORK IN PROGRESS DEPENDING ON HOW THINGS PAN OUT ON
FRIDAY. ANOTHER S/WV APPROACHES THE AREA ON SUNDAY. THIS FEATURE
COUPLED WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BRING A QUICK SHOT OF RAIN
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING. ANOTHER SHOT OF RAIN ON TUESDAY WITH A
WEAK FRONT. 43

MISCELLANEOUS SNOW FACTS:

HOUSTON EARLIEST SNOW 1.4 INCHES AT IAH DEC 10 2008 (YUP LAST
YEAR). HOBBY AIRPORT RECEIVED 0.3 INCHES LAST YEAR.

THE HOUSTON AREA HAS NEVER RECEIVED ACCUMULATING SNOW IN
CONSECUTIVE YEARS. THE AREA HAS HAD TRACE SNOW EVENTS IN BACK TO
BACK YEARS.

JAN 12 1912 0.1 INCHES
JAN 7 1913 TRACE

JAN 11 1918 0.2 INCHES
JAN 2 1919 TRACE

DEC 19 1924 TRACE
DEC 28 1925 0.4 INCHES
JAN 23 1926 0.8 INCHES (SAME WINTER SEASON BUT DIFFERENT YEAR)

JAN 5 1947 TRACE
JAN 23 1948 TRACE
JAN 29 1949 TRACE
JAN 30 1949 2.6 INCHES

FEB 12 1960 3.0 INCHES
JAN 25 1961 TRACE
JAN 9 1962 TRACE

HEAVIEST SNOWFALL EVER WAS 20.0 INCHES FEB 14-15 1895.

[jess]

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
503 AM CST FRI DEC 4 2009

...MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE REGION TODAY...

.DISCUSSION...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SETTLE INTO THE AREA WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S AT THIS TIME AND THESE WILL BE THE HIGHEST
TEMPS OF THE DAY...BY LATE MORNING THE INLAND AREAS WILL BE IN THE
30S. LIGHT RAIN SHOULD DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF THE AREA THIS MORNING
BUT THE FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF BRAZOS AND BURLESON MAY SKIP THIS
PHASE OF PRECIP. AS THE VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH DIGS DOWN INTO
CENTRAL TEXAS THE AFTERNOON THE PROFILES ACROSS SETX SUPPORT RAINS
ENDING AND SWITCHING OVER TO ALL SNOW BY AROUND 1 PM FOR AREAS
WEST OF HIGHWAY 59. AFTER FOCUSING ON THE 00Z RUNS HAVE EXPANDED
THE WINTER STORM WARNING NORTH TO INCLUDE HOUSTON AND MADISON
COUNTIES. SOME THINGS OF CONCERN IS THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY BANDS
OF SNOW SETTING UP THIS AFTERNOON FROM SW TO NE THROUGH MAINLY THE
CENTRAL ZONES. HAVE RAISED THE SNOW AMOUNTS TO WIDESPREAD 1-2" AND
ISOLATED 3 TO 4" BUT IF THE BANDS PERSIST THE COUNTIES IN THE
WARNING EAST OF 45 COULD SEE GREATER AMOUNTS. THE WARM GROUND WILL
CERTAINLY HELP TO MELT SNOW THAT FALLS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BUT
THE STRONG CAA AND MELTING WILL LIKELY LEAD TO BRIDGES AND
ELEVATED ROADS ICING UP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...PERHAPS
BY MID AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTH. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ON
TAP AND COMBINED WITH THE COLD AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES THE WIND
CHILL INDEX READINGS OF 20-25 DEGREES WILL RULE FROM NOON THROUGH
9-10 AM SATURDAY SO DRESS WARMLY. THE SNOW SHOULD BE COMING TO AN
END BY 6 TO 9 PM AS THE SYSTEM EXITS EAST. THE SNOW COVER AND
CLEARING SKIES WILL LEAD TO A VERY COLD NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES
ALONG AND NORTH OF 59 IN THE 21-25 DEGREE RANGE BY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL CREEP UP SLOWLY IN THE MORNING WITH
MOST OF HEATING GOING INTO MELTING THE SNOW...DURING THE AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES COULD REACH THE 40S...BUT CONFIDENCE ON SPECIFIC
TEMPS IS NOT VERY HIGH FOR SATURDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND ANOTHER QUICK SHOT OF
RAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ON TUESDAY. THE EVENT
TUESDAY MAY BE CONFINED THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA. QUIET
WEATHER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
45

[jess]

The temperature hovered at freezing when the snow started slacking off. We received a dusting of snow, which is still on the ground this morning. Current temperature is 28.

[jess]

DISCUSSION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PUSHING OFF THE COAST THIS MORNING.
DENSE FOG STILL REMAINS THIS MORNING ACROSS SE TX AND WILL BE THE
MAIN AVIATION WEATHER CONCERN. LIFR CIGS/VIS WILL CONTINUE INTO
THE MORNING WITH ONLY MINOR IMPROVEMENT THROUGH THE DAY. NAM/GFS
SUGGEST ANOTHER ROUND OF DZ/RA BY THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EXPECT
THESE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE INTO MON NIGHT. TAF WILL AGAIN HAVE
LIFR CIGS AND MAYBE VIS BACK BELOW 1SM. LOOK TO HAVE LIGHT RA
PERSIST INTO TUE MORNING AGAIN. CHANCES ARE THAT SE TX TERMINALS
WILL BE STUCK IN IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
TIME. CONDITIONS MAY NOT CLEAR UNTIL A STRONGER COLD FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY.

39

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 447 AM CST MON DEC 7 2009/

DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVING SOUTH OVER THE COASTAL WATERS BUT SHOULD
GO STATIONARY BY EARLY AFTERNOON. IN THE MEANTIME SETX WILL HAVE
CLOUDS AND FOG. DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN EFFECT TIL 8 AM BUT THIS MAY
NEED TO BE EXTENDED A FEW HOURS BEFORE SLIGHTLY LOWER DP AIR WORKS
ITS WAY SOUTH. DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN AND A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE BUT
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT TODAY. UPPER SPEED MAX OVER BAJA THIS
MORNING WILL CRUISE EAST AND SHOULD BRING INCREASING UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE AND LIFT AS TROUGH OVER NRN CA SWINGS SE INTO 4 CORNERS
SLOWLY DRAGGING THE STATIONARY FRONT BACK NORTH INTO THE COASTAL
AREAS EARLY TUESDAY. THE FRONT CONTINUES NORTH AS TROUGH MOVES OUT
INTO THE SRN PLAINS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SW FLOW ACROSS THE AREA
WILL LEAD TO AFTERNOON TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. A COLD
FRONT SWEEPS OUT THE AREA WED MORNING FOLLOWED BY A SECONDARY PUSH
OF COOL OF DRY AIR WED AFTERNOON. CONFLUENT UPPER FLOW TO THE N
AND NE WITH AN IMPRESSIVE 170-180KT JET FROM NWTX-AR WED-THU WILL
AID SURFACE RIDGING ACROSS TX/LOWER MS VALLEY...PRODUCING DRY NEAR
SEASONAL WEATHER FOR SETX WED NIGHT-FRI MORNING. THE NEXT WEATHER
MAKER COMES IN ON THE FAST SRN STREAM ACROSS THE DESERT SW
FRI/EARLY SAT...WITH ANOTHER WF FRI NIGHT ALONG THE COAST. AM
FAVORING THE ECMWF 00Z SOLUTION OVER THE GFS THU AND BEYOND...SO
WILL BE KEEPING THE POPS IN THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN DRYING
OUT SAT AFTERNOON AFTER CF PASSAGE BUT WITH POPS INCREASING SUNDAY
AS WF MOVES BACK THROUGH THE REGION.

OTHER ISSUES...ELEVATED TIDE LEVELS POSSIBLE AGAIN THU-FRI WITH
THE MODERATE NE-SE WINDS...MAY ALSO HAVE A POSSIBLE SEA FOG
SCENARIO SETTING UP EARLY FRIDAY WITH THE EASTERLY FLOW.

__________________________________________________ _____________

Otherwise the best way to describe the weather will be "blech".

[ROLLTIDE]

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[jess]

Local forecasters calling for partly sunny tomorrow. The high cloud deck is already solid, so I'm thinking their forecast will change before morning.

[jess]

DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CEILINGS SHOULD QUICKLY DETERIORATE TO MVFR BETWEEN 14Z AND
18Z. GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT IFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP IN THE EARLY
AFTERNOON AND LIFR AROUND OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. WINDS
WILL BE ANOTHER PROBLEM AREA...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST WHERE
KGLS WILL LIKELY SEE GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

40

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 AM CST FRI DEC 11 2009/

DISCUSSION...
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL TRIGGER LIGHT RAIN LATE THIS MORNING
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS WARMER AIR ALOFT OVER RIDES
COOLER SURFACE AIR. A DEVELOPING COASTAL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL HELP FOCUS NEAR THE COAST TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. THERE
IS ALSO 850 MB CONVERGENCE LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES. THIS
WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR RAIN OVER THE NORTH. SOUTHEAST TEXAS
WILL ALSO LIE IN A WEAK RIGHT REAR QUAD THROUGH SATURDAY WHICH
SHOULD HELP MAINTAIN LIFT. THE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL END
SATURDAY MORNING SO AM EXPECTING RAIN CHANCES TO END FROM WEST TO
EAST DURING THE DAY. THE FLOW ALOFT REMAINS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
SO EXPECT CLOUDS TO STAY IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MODELS
DIVERGE A BIT IN THEIR SOLUTIONS FOR MONDAY. THE GFS AND NAM HAVE
SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURNING WHILE THE ECMWF DEVELOPS A COASTAL
TROUGH. THE ECMWF IS AGGRESSIVE WITH RAIN CHANCES WHILE THE GFS
AND NAM SHOW CONSIDERABLY LIGHTER RAINFALL. A STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE COAST TUESDAY MORNING ENDING RAIN CHANCES. TEMPS
TODAY WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE LOWER 50S WITH RAIN AND THICK
CLOUD COVER IN PLACE. A SLOW WARMING TREND SUNDAY AND MONDAY AHEAD
OF TUESDAYS COLD FRONT. TEMPS WILL TREND COLDER BEHIND THE FRONT
AND REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

WITH THE SOUTHERLY WINDS SUNDAY AND MONDAY...DEW POINTS WILL RISE
INTO THE MID 60S. WITH WATER TEMPS NEAR 60...IT LOOKS LIKE SEA FOG
WILL BECOME A BIT OF A PROBLEM. THE NAM IS COOLER AND DRIER THAN
THE GFS SO THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WHETHER FOG WILL
DEVELOP. E-NE WINDS TODAY WILL HELP ELEVATE TIDE LEVELS. TIDES ARE
CURRENTLY RUNNING 1.0 TO 1.3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL. THE WINDS WILL
REMAIN BRISK TODAY SO TIDE LEVELS WILL INCREASE A LITTLE MORE.
STILL SOME CONCERN ABOUT MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AND A MARINE
WEATHER STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED DETAILING THE THREAT. 43

************************************************** *******

This will definitely be good for the herds of pink elephants. The long term drought has been hard on the poor critters.

[jess]

Dense fog is the forecast. Usually, with the weather as it is, the fog can lower visibilities to as low as 100 feet. The interstate will be a circus tonight. The elephants will be happy.

[jess]

It's been a foggy sumbitch for the last two days. Radar is showing developing showers, which will bring rain to slop. The National Weather Service is warning of a possible flood event. If the system moves out, there will only be a continuation of slop. If it hangs, there are some areas that will have flooding problems. One estimate calls for up to 5 inches in isolated areas.