HURRICANE EARL

[Her-icane]

AL, 97, 2016072818, , BEST, 0, 130N, 345W, 20, 1011, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 150, 70, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 010, SPAWNINVEST, al722016 to al972016,

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ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT THU JUL 28 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A tropical wave located about 1700 miles east-southeast of the
Leeward Islands is moving westward at about 30 mph. Environmental
conditions are expected to be somewhat conducive for development
this weekend when the disturbance could be near the northern Lesser
Antilles and Puerto Rico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

2. A tropical wave accompanied by a low pressure system is producing an
area of showers and thunderstorms about 350 miles south-southeast of
Cabo Verde. Some development of this disturbance is possible during
the next few days while it moves westward or west-northwestward at
10 to 15 mph. However, environmental conditions are expected to
become less conducive for development early next week when the
system is over the central tropical Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent

Forecaster Stewart

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[ROLLTIDE]

[Her-icane]

Twin Invests 96L and 97L Worth Watching in the Atlantic


By: Jeff Masters , 2:41 PM GMT on July 29, 2016



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There's a new threat area to discuss today in the Atlantic: a tropical wave midway between the Lesser Antilles Islands and the Cabo Verde Islands that is headed west to west-northwest at 25 mph. This disturbance was designated Invest 97L on Thursday afternoon by NHC, and should arrive in the northern Lesser Antilles by late Saturday night. The Hurricane Hunters are on call to investigate the storm on Sunday, if needed. Satellite loops on Friday morning showed 97L had a modest area of heavy thunderstorms which were poorly organized, though there was some increasing spin evident in the cloud pattern. Wind shear was a light 5 - 10 knots, and sea surface temperatures (SSTs) was an adequate-for-developement 27°C (81°F), which was about 1°C (1.8°F) above average. Water vapor satellite imagery showed that 97L had a modest amount of dry air from the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) surrounding it, which was slowing development.


Figure 1. Latest satellite image of Invest 97L in the middle Atlantic.

Forecast for 97L
Steering currents favor very rapid west to west-northwesterly motion at about 25 mph for 97L though Monday, and storms that move this fast typically have trouble getting organized. This motion should take the disturbance through the northern Lesser Antilles Islands on Sunday morning, over the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Sunday afternoon, and into the Dominican Republic by Sunday night. All of these areas should expect to see heavy rains of 2 - 4" and wind gusts of 30 - 35 mph as 97L passes, and the NWS may end up issuing a Flash Flood Watch for portions of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico this weekend. The 8 am EDT Friday run of the SHIPS model shows somewhat favorable conditions for development through Saturday night, with wind shear in the light to moderate range, 5 - 15 knots, a moist atmosphere, and SSTs near 27 - 27.5°C (81 - 82°F.) However, an unfavorable factor for development will be large-scale sinking motion over the tropical Atlantic over the next few days imparted by the passage of what is called a Kelvin Wave (see the tweet by The Weather Company's Mike Ventrice on this.) On Sunday through Monday, 97L is predicted to encounter high wind shear of 20 - 30 knots, which would thwart development. At that time, the system may be undergoing interaction with the rough topography of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola, will would also inhibit development. By Tuesday, 97L should be traversing Cuba, and will slow down to a forward speed of about 10 - 15 mph, taking it into Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula by Wednesday and into the Gulf of Mexico around Thursday.

The Friday morning operational runs of our three reliable models for predicting tropical cyclone genesis, the European, GFS and UKMET models, did not show 97L developing much. The 00Z Friday runs of the GFS and European model ensemble forecasts, done by taking the operational high-resolution version of the model and running it at lower resolution with slight perturbations to the initial conditions in order to generate a range of possible outcomes, had fewer than 10% of their ensemble members predict that 97L would become a tropical depression. In their 8 am EDT Friday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 97L 2-day and 5-day development odds of 20% and 30%, respectively. When 97L reaches the Western Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico by the middle of next week, we will need to watch it, but the crystal ball is very murky on whether or not 97L might find favorable conditions for development then.


Figure 2. MODIS visible satellite image of 96L south of the Cabo Verde Islands taken on Friday morning, July 29, 2016. Image credit: NASA.

96L continues to grow more organized
A tropical disturbance that began as a strong tropical wave that moved off the coast of Africa on Wednesday morning continues to grow more organized over the eastern Atlantic, and has the potential to develop into a tropical depression by Saturday as it tracks west to west-northwestward at about 15 mph into the middle Atlantic. Satellite loops on Friday morning showed 96L had a compact area of heavy thunderstorms, and this activity was showing increasing organization. Plenty of spin was evident in the cloud pattern, and low-level spiral banding features were evident. Wind shear was a light 5 - 10 knots, and sea surface temperatures (SSTs) were warm, near 28°C (82°F), which was about 1°C (1.8°F) above average. Water vapor satellite imagery showed that the eastern tropical Atlantic was quite moist, with the dry air of the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) several hundred miles north of 96L. These conditions are favorable for development of a tropical depression.

Forecast for 96L
Steering currents favor a west to west-northwesterly motion at 15 - 20 mph for 96L over the next five days, and the storm should reach a point near 40°W, midway between the Lesser Antilles Islands and Africa, on Sunday night. The 8 am EDT Friday run of the SHIPS model predicted modestly favorable conditions for development through Saturday night, with wind shear in the light to moderate range, 5 - 15 knots, a moist atmosphere, and warm SSTs near 27 - 27.5°C (81 - 82°F.) However, by Saturday night, 96L will encounter cooler waters, with temperatures a marginal 26.5°C (80°F). The SHIPS model also predicts that wind shear over the weekend will become high, greater than 20 knots, and the atmosphere will get very dry, due to an intrusion of the Saharan Air Layer (check out the 10-day African dust forecast from NASA.) These unfavorable conditions would stymie any development of 96L. As 96L approaches the Lesser Antilles Islands later next week, the shear increases even further and the air grows drier, making 96L unlikely to be a threat to the islands.

The Friday morning operational runs of our three reliable models for predicting tropical cyclone genesis, the European, GFS and UKMET models, all supported continued development of 96L through Saturday. The 00Z Friday run of the GFS ensemble forecast had 30 - 40% of its twenty ensemble members predict that a tropical depression would form from 96L this weekend in the eastern Atlantic. Most of these forecasts had the storm dying out the middle Atlantic, due to unfavorable conditions, and none had it becoming a hurricane. Between 30 - 40% of the 50 members of the 00Z Friday European ensemble model forecasts also showed 96L becoming a tropical depression this weekend. In their 8 am EDT Friday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 96L 2-day and 5-day development odds of 40% and 50%, respectively.

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ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT FRI JUL 29 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A tropical wave located about 1000 miles east of the Lesser Antilles
is moving westward at 20-25 mph. Associated shower activity is
poorly organized, and given the fast motion of the system any
development should be slow to occur. Regardless of development,
this system will likely bring showers and gusty winds to portions of
the Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and the eastern
Caribbean Sea during the weekend. By the middle of next week, the
wave is expected to be in the western Caribbean Sea, where
conditions could become more conducive for development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

2. Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a tropical wave and
a low pressure system centered a couple of hundred miles south of
Cabo Verde continues to show signs of organization. Although this
system does not have a well-defined circulation at this time, some
development is still possible during the next day or two before the
disturbance encounters a less favorable environment over the central
tropical Atlantic early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent

Forecaster Stewart

[Her-icane]

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SUN JUL 31 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a strong and fast-moving
tropical wave over the east-central Caribbean Sea continue to show
signs of organization, but there is still no evidence of a closed
surface circulation. This system has the potential to become a
tropical cyclone when the wave reaches the western Caribbean Sea in
a couple of days. The disturbance is expected to cause locally
heavy rains and gusty winds over portions of the Leeward Islands,
the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico tonight. These conditions are also
spreading across Hispaniola, and should reach Jamaica and Cuba by
late Monday as the wave moves westward near 25 mph over the central
Caribbean Sea. Interests in these areas and elsewhere in the western
Caribbean Sea should continue to monitor the progress of this
system. For additional information on this system, see High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and on
the Web at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.

Forecaster Pasch

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JM

Quote: 97L Sweeps Toward Lesser Antilles; Nida Approaching Philippines


By:Bob Henson , 10:54 PM GMT on July 30, 2016




As it hustles westward at 25-30 mph in the western tropical Atlantic, Invest 97L is continuing to organize. In its tropical weather outlook issued at 2:00 PM EDT Saturday, the National Hurricane Center placed the tropical wave about 550 miles east of the Lesser Antilles. The wave’s envelope of shower and thunderstorm activity (convection) increased notably on Saturday, with strong convection now extending across the Leeward Islands. Upper-level wind shear is strong to 97L’s north, but light to moderate (5 - 15 knots) over the core of the wave. In addition, 97L is moving over sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) of about 28°C (82°F), which is about 0.5°C above average and more than warm enough to favor development.

Despite these supportive factors, 97L is fighting some unfavorable elements. The system is more organized aloft than at the surface, with healthy upper-level divergence but no sign yet of a closed surface circulation (see Figure 2). In addition, it’s typically more difficult for waves moving as quickly as 97L to organize. As it plows westward, 97L will be moving toward a region of moderate to strong shear (20 - 30 knots) associated with a weak upper-level trough across the central Caribbean, although it appears the shear will relax considerably as the trough shifts westward. [Update: The 0Z Sunday run of the SHIPS model keeps wind shear for 97L below 10 knots through Wednesday.] There is also a modest amount of dry air from the Sarahan Air Layer extending across the region of 97L’s track. Both the ECMWF and GFS model runs from 12Z Saturday keep 97L as an open wave during its trek across the eastern Caribbean. Ensemble guidance suggests only a modest chance of 97L traversing the eastern Caribbean as a tropical depression, based on the 12Z Saturday runs of the GFS and ECMWF ensemble models. Ensemble forecasts are produced by taking the operational high-resolution version of the model and running it at lower resolution with slight perturbations to the initial conditions in order to generate a range of possible outcomes. Only a small fraction of ensemble members develop 97L over the next several days.


Figure 1. Infrared satellite image of Invest 97L in the western tropical Atlantic as of 2115Z (5:15 pm EDT) Saturday, July 30, 2016. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS.

In its 2 PM outlook, NHC gave 97L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday. Given the system’s vigorous growth today, and the mix of positives and negatives noted above, I’ll lay 50% odds on the chance that 97L will be at least a tropical depression by Monday, though it would probably struggle to maintain that status over the next several days. Squally weather, with bursts of heavy rain and wind gusts of 30-40 mph, can be expected through Sunday across the Lesser Antilles and beyond as 97L whips through the area. A flash flood watch is in effect for Sunday across Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands, with rains of 2-4” predicted and higher amounts possible.

The long-range outlook for 97L
If 97L manages to organize even modestly over the next 2-3 days, we’ll have to keep a close eye on it. Model trends have been to route 97L on a fairly direct west to west-northwest path across the northern Caribbean, perhaps missing Hispaniola and most likely staying south of Cuba. Assuming that 97L forms a center of circulation and avoids major interaction with the high terrain of these islands, it will be well situated to strengthen--perhaps significantly--by late next week. A convectively coupled Kelvin wave (CCKW) has tended to suppress upward motion across the tropical Atlantic this week, but by later next week 97L may enter a region where the CCKW pattern favors upward motion. In addition, SSTs across the northwest Caribbean are very warm (29°C or 84°F, about 1°C above average), and there is a near-record amount of heat in the upper ocean to support rapid development if atmospheric conditions turn out to be favorable.

The SHIPS statistical intensity model is increasingly bullish on 97L, with the 18Z Saturday run of SHIPS bringing 97L to a Category 3 strength by Thursday. The last several runs of the HWRF model, which has shown increasing skill over the last several years, also project 97L to reach hurricane strength in the Caribbean (although the 12Z Saturday run appears to have had initialization problems, as noted by WU member Levi Cowan). The 12Z Saturday runs of the GFS and ECMWF models, two of the other more-trustworthy dynamical models, suggest that 97L could begin organizing just before crossing the Yucatan Peninsula and then develop further in the Bay of Campeche by late next week. It is far too soon to assign any confidence to model projections in this time range, but the available guidance indicates that 97L is well worth watching. NHC gives 97L a 60% chance of development by Thursday, August 4.


Figure 2. Surface winds across the tropical Atlantic at 1800Z (2:00 pm EDT) Saturday, July 30, 2016. The surface circulation is less organized with Invest 97L (far left) with Invest 96L (right), as 96L features weaker winds overall but a more evident surface circulation. Image credit: earth.nullschool.net.

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[Her-icane]

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON AUG 1 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Thunderstorm activity associated with a strong tropical wave
located over the central Caribbean Sea about 350 miles
east-southeast of Kingston, Jamaica, continues to show signs
of organization. Earlier satellite wind data indicate that the
system is producing winds of 40 to 45 mph, and recent satellite
and ship observations suggest that a circulation is gradually
becoming better defined. If this development trend continues, a
tropical storm is likely to form later today or tonight as the
system moves westward over the west-central Caribbean sea at 20 to
25 mph. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall and
gusty winds, perhaps to tropical storm force, are likely along the
southern coast of the Dominican Republic and Haiti today. Tropical
storm conditions are likely to occur over Jamaica by this afternoon
or evening, and could reach the Cayman Islands overnight. Interests
in these areas and elsewhere in the western Caribbean Sea should
continue to monitor the progress of this disturbance. For additional
information on this system, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the
National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and on
the Web at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.

Forecaster Brown

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000
NOUS42 KNHC 311448
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1045 AM EDT SUN 31 JULY 2016
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 01/1100Z TO 02/1100Z AUGUST 2016
TCPOD NUMBER.....16-066

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: PROBABLE LOW-LEVEL INVEST MISSION
OVER WESTERN CARIBBEAN NEAR 16.5N 80.0W FOR 02/1800Z. BEGIN
6-HRLY FIXES AT 03/0600Z IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

$$
SEF

NNNN

[Joe-Nathan]

a little better organized this morning:

[ROLLTIDE]

Hard to get excited about a Mexican storm We need to build a wall !!

[Her-icane]

JM

Quote: Tropical Storm Likely to Form in Caribbean


By:Bob Henson , 2:00 PM GMT on August 01, 2016



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The tropical wave in the eastern Caribbean dubbed Invest 97L continued to organize on Sunday night, and it will likely become a tropical depression or tropical storm on Monday and move into the western Caribbean as an intensifying tropical storm over the next day or so. Infrared satellite imagery on Sunday night revealed that shower and thunderstorm activity (convection) had become more intense and far more symmetric around 97L’s core, which was located early Monday morning about 350 miles east-southeast of Kingston, Jamaica. As of early Monday morning, 97L had not yet consolidated a closed low-level center of circulation, as seen by the lack of westerly winds in the ASCAT scatterometer image in Figure 2 below. However, surface winds were close to tropical storm strength on the north side of the system. As of early Monday morning, a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft was tentatively scheduled to carry out a reconnaissance mission into 97L on Tuesday afternoon.

97L continues to chug westward at 20 to 25 mph, a speed that typically limits the ability of a tropical wave to intensify. In this case, however, upper- and lower-level winds are close enough in speed and direction to reduce the amount of wind shear that would otherwise affect fast-moving 97L. Long-range models agree that wind shear will remain light (around 10 knots or less) for at least the next three to four days, perhaps longer, along 97L’s path. In its 8:00 am EDT Monday tropical weather discussion, the National Hurricane Center gave 97L an 80% chance of development over the next two days. (On occasion, the NHC will bypass tropical depression status and upgrade a strong wave directly to tropical storm status.) 97L will be sweeping just south of Jamaica on Tuesday, perhaps as a moderately strong tropical storm (which would be named Earl], before approaching the Yucatan Peninsula later in the week (see below).


Figure 1. Enhanced infrared image of Invest 97L as of 1245Z (8:45 am EDT) Monday, August 1, 2016. Image credit: CIRA/RAMMB/CSU.


Figure 2. Low-level winds (in knots) detected by the Advanced Scatterometer (ASCAT) aboard the MetOp-A satellite as of 1302Z (9:02 am EDT] Monday, August 1, 2016. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS/STAR.

The outlook for 97L
It’s now clear that 97L will survive its trek through the eastern Caribbean, which has long been known as the “hurricane graveyard” thanks to the climatological minimum in tropical cyclone formation over the area. According to a 2010 study in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society led by Owen Shieh (University of Oklahoma), this phenomenon is largely because of a predominant low-level southerly jet in the central Caribbean and an accompanying tendency toward low-level divergence over the eastern Caribbean. This pattern is most prevalent early in the season, peaking in July.

With a sprawling area of upper-level high pressure to its north, 97L should continue on a fairly straightforward west to west-northwest path for at least the next couple of days. There is strong agreement among our best longer-range track models, the ECMWF and GFS, that 97L will move south of Jamaica on Tuesday and approach the Yucatan Peninsula around Thursday. There are no signs of any major changes to the upper-level pattern that would divert 97L from this longer-term path, which could eventually bring it across the Yucatan Peninsula and into the Bay of Campeche. We will have to watch for any signs of a northward bend in 97L’s path later this week, but no members of the most recent GFS and ECMWF ensemble runs are indicating a track that would bring 97L into the heart of the western Gulf. Residents of Nicaragua and Honduras, and especially Belize, Guatemala, and eastern Mexico, will need to keep a close watch on 97L. Toward the end of the week, 97L could pose a threat to the western coast of the Bay of Campeche if it crosses the Yucatan Peninsula and survives the trek.


Figure 3. Oceanic heat content over the Caribbean on July 30, 2016, in kilojoules per square centimeter. The value is produced by integrating the vertical temperature from the ocean surface to the depth of the 26°C contour. 97L will be traveling over a large area of heat content greater than 100 kJ/cm2 on Tuesday and Wednesday. Image credit: NOAA/AOML.

Extremely warm water lies ahead of 97L
As it sweeps toward the western Caribbean, 97L will encounter a more favorable atmospheric regime as well as ominously warm water both at the surface and below. Sea-surface temperatures (SST) along 97L’s expected path from the area around Jamaica westward are around 29-30°C (84-86°F), which is roughly 1°C above average for this time of year. These warm waters extend to great depths, with large amounts of oceanic heat in the uppermost 200 meters (660 feet) of the northwest Caribbean (see Figure 3). Across the Caribbean and adjacent waters, the breadth and depth of oceanic heat content has been at near-record levels in recent weeks, as we discussed in a post on July 18. High levels of oceanic heat content are a major boon to tropical storm and hurricane intensification, because the storms do not churn up as much cold water as they otherwise would as they intensify. Rapid intensification is often associated with regions of high oceanic heat content, assuming that other conditions are favorable as well.

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000
NOUS42 KNHC 011514
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1115 AM EDT MON 01 AUGUST 2016
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 02/1100Z TO 03/1100Z AUGUST 2016
TCPOD NUMBER.....16-067

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA....CARIBBEAN SEA
FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 72 FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 73
A. 02/1130, 1730Z A. 02/2330, 03/0530Z
B. AFXXX 0205A CYCLONE B. AFXXX 0305A CYCLONE
C. 02/0715Z C. 02/1930Z
D. 16.1N 79.0W D. 16.2N 81.8W
E. 02/1100Z TO 02/1730Z E. 02/2300Z TO 03/0530Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

FLIGHT THREE - NOAA 43 FLIGHT FOUR - TEAL 74
A. 03/0930Z A. 03/1130, 1730Z
B. NOAA3 0405A B. AFXXX 0505A CYCLONE
C. 03/0600Z C. 03/0800Z
D. 16.4N 83.9W D. 16.6N 84.3W
E. 03/0900Z TO 03/1200Z E. 03/1100Z TO 03/1730Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY:
A. CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES WHILE SYSTEM REMAINS A THREAT.
B. P-3 FLIGHTS DEPARTING EVERY 12 HOURS AT 0600Z AND 1800Z.
3. REMARKS: TEAL 71 IS FLYING A RESOURCES PERMITTING LOW LEVEL
INVEST INTO THIS SYSTEM TODAY. ESTIMATED TAKEOFF 01/1630Z.

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ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT MON AUG 1 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A strong tropical wave over the central Caribbean Sea, centered
about 275 miles east-southeast of Kingston, Jamaica, continues to
move quickly westward at about 20 mph. Thunderstorm activity
associated with the wave remains organized, but the system still
appears to lack a closed surface circulation. Environmental
conditions are expected to be conducive for additional development,
and a tropical storm is likely to form later today or tonight. An
Air Force Reserve Reconnaissance aircraft is currently en route to
investigate this system late this afternoon. Regardless of
development, locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds, perhaps to
tropical storm force, will continue over portions of the Dominican
Republic and Haiti through this evening. Tropical storm conditions
are likely to occur over Jamaica by this evening, and could reach
the Cayman Islands overnight. Interests in these areas and
elsewhere in the western Caribbean Sea should continue to monitor
the progress of this disturbance. For additional information, see
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and on
the Web at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.

Forecaster Brown

[Her-icane]

AL, 97, 2016080118, , BEST, 0, 164N, 734W, 40, 1007, DB, 34, NEQ, 70, 60, 0, 70, 1009, 120, 40, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, D, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 010,

[Her-icane]

Reserve unit flew this afternoon to investigate...after all the waiting for them to get to the storm, they reached Jamaica and declared a maintenance issue, so no new info for us.....